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Two Kevins Battle to Be the Next Fed Chair in ‘Apprentice’-Style Contest

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

Two Republicans named Kevin are vying to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. One is rising to the top of the list of potential candidates, while the other is facing skepticism from President Trump’s allies. What’s unfolding is quintessential Trump: two ambitious men competing for his approval in a high-stakes contest that echoes the boardroom drama he once promoted on “The Apprentice.” Meanwhile, investors are seeking more protection against the risk that the U.S. dollar will weaken during future periods of stress in the global economy, a process that is likely to be gradual and weigh on the value of the currency, the Bank of England said.

 

Top News

Hassett Emerges as Fed Contender, Posing Possible Threat to Warsh

Kevin Hassett, left, and Kevin Warsh. PHOTO: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP, Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg

Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s closest economic advisers, is emerging as a serious contender to be the next Fed chair, according to people familiar with the matter. Hassett’s rise threatens the other Kevin—former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—an early favorite for the job who has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago. Some people close to the president worry that Warsh, who isn’t in Trump’s inner circle, won’t be a champion of lower rates.

Increased Hedging of U.S. Exposure May Weaken Dollar, BOE Says

The Bank of England said that while the financial system showed resilience during the period of volatility that followed the April 2 announcement of big tariff increases, the episode provided further evidence of a break in a historical pattern that saw the U.S. dollar strengthen at times of stress. Investors who had previously relied on that “historical correlation” to preserve the value of their U.S. assets were now moving to protect themselves against a fresh weakening of the currency should there be further periods of stress, the BOE said.

New Zealand’s Central Bank Holds Rates as Inflation Risks Simmer

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold, telling financial markets that it needs to keep watch on inflation risks, which have risen in recent months.

Malaysia’s Central Bank Cuts Rates for First Time in Five Years

Malaysia’s central bank has finally joined its rate-cutting peers, lowering its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years to support the economy.

 

Economy

EU Closes In on U.S. Trade Deal, Testing Bloc’s Unity

PHOTO: Olivier Matthys/EPA/Shutterstock

Negotiations with the Trump administration are testing European cohesion as the bloc inches toward a potential trade deal with the U.S. European Union officials are closing in on the outline of a deal that includes tough concessions for the bloc. Agreement isn’t certain.

Trump Delayed Reciprocal Tariffs After Bessent Wanted More Time

President Trump decided to delay the implementation of his so-called reciprocal tariffs to Aug. 1 after advisers including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told him he could get trade deals with more time, according to people familiar with the matter.

  • Trump Administration Seeks to Ban China From Buying U.S. Farms
 

Financial Regulation

Challenger to FICO Credit Scores Gets Green Light for Mortgages

Shares of Fair Isaac Corp., the company behind the FICO credit score, sank nearly 9% Tuesday after a federal agency greenlighted the use of its biggest rival in mortgage underwriting.

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

10 a.m.: Monthly Wholesale Trade
2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast

Thursday

8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
10 a.m.: OMFIF event with Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem
12:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth host conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller
2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at MNI Connect event

 

Research

Fed's Trading Excelled During 2020 Emergency Ops

New York Fed researchers look back at the bond purchases the central bank performed in 2020 to stabilize the Treasury market as the pandemic rocked the financial system. They found that as it bought up securities, the Fed was able to get unusually attractive prices. On any given purchase, the Fed was typically able to get a discount of about 15 cents per $100 of par value, a much bigger discount than usual. The research team notes that given $2 trillion in Treasury purchases in 2020, that discount saved taxpayers roughly $3 billion. Explanations suggested by the New York Fed team: Sellers prefer the Fed as a trading partner, dealers were eager to raise cash and the Fed may have been more willing than other buyers to pick up less-favored securities. — Matt Grossman

 

Basis Points

  • Incomes in rich countries are going to grow much more slowly as populations age over coming decades unless more women, older people and migrants can be persuaded to work, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.
  • U.S. copper prices vaulted to an all-time high Tuesday after President Trump said Washington would slap imports of the metal with a 50% tax.
  • China’s deflationary pressures remained elevated in June, with factory-gate prices declining at the fastest pace in nearly two years, eclipsing the slight increase in consumer prices.
  • Growth in Canada is set to sharply weaken for the remainder of 2025, and that will place downward pressure on underlying inflation and give the Bank of Canada an opening to resume rate cuts in September, says Carlos Capistran, Canada economist at BofA Securities. He expects the BOC policy rate to reach 2% by the end of year, from its present 2.75% level. (Dow Jones Newswires)
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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