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May 5, 2021 - Brief Issue 193

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus May 6.Please consider making a donation to support our ongoing analysis of the most important news and headlines surrounding Covid-19.​

Top Headlines

White House Adjusts Vaccine Rollout Strategy, Targeting Lagging Vaccination Rates Head-On (Health & Science)

Pfizer Publicizes Plans to Expand Vaccine to Younger Americans (Health & Science)

As The Dream of Herd Immunity Fades, Experts Predict Winter Surges (Health & Science)

Covid-19 is Far More Likely to Cause Blood Clots than J&J Shot, Report Says (Health & Science)

WHO Reviewing Two of China’s Vaccines (Around the World)

G7 Foreign Ministers Meet In Person for First Time Since Pandemic Began (Around the World)

Japan Considering Extending State of Emergency for Tokyo, Other Areas (Around the World)

Biden Administration to Allow Redistribution of Unused Vaccine Among States (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York City Says No More Snow Days (U.S. Government & Politics)

Treasury Secretary: U.S. May Raise Interest Rates in Future (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 32,513,408 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 578,503 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 438,358,030 tests and administered 247,769,049 vaccine doses, with 44.5% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 32% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 154,404,850 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,229,357 deaths. At least 90,994,024 people have recovered from the virus.

White House Adjusts Vaccine Rollout Strategy, Targeting Lagging Vaccination Rates Head-On

President Biden addressed the country’s decelerating Covid-19 vaccination push on Tuesday, announcing a new phase of his pandemic response (NYT, STAT, Reuters, WaPo). According to Biden, federal efforts will now focus on the local level in order to reduce vaccine hesitancy. The new strategy also tackles vaccine inequality, as data highlight access issues (Science News). The administration plans to launch pop-up and mobile clinics in rural areas and facilitate childcare and transportation assistance for people in high-risk areas who are struggling to access the vaccine. To help optimize vaccine distribution, Biden said, states that haven’t used up their allotted doses at the end of each week will return the surplus to a federal pool. “Maybe that’s a motivator – that if we don’t use the vaccines that are available to us here in Arkansas, then those vaccines might go to Massachusetts, because there’s a higher acceptance rate there,” said Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson. “We have to increase our demand for it.” The White House aims for 70% of American adults to be at least partially vaccinated by July 4, a goal the U.S. is still on track to hit. “This is your choice,” Biden said. “It’s life and death.” Bonus Read: “U.S. Vaccination Rates Are Slowing. What’s To Blame?” (NYT). 

Pfizer Publicizes Plans to Expand Vaccine to Younger Americans

During a quarterly earnings call on Tuesday, Pfizer announced its plans to apply for emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration to use its vaccine in kids 2 to 11 years old this September. The company is already expecting approval for adolescents 12 to 15 years old early next week (NYT, NPR). Plus, later this month, Pfizer will apply for full approval – not just emergency authorization – of its vaccine for adults aged 16 to 85. “Full approval is a welcome indicator of the continued safety and efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine,” said Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist at George Mason University. This move would help the vaccine stay in use even as the heat of the pandemic dies down, and experts think full approval could help reduce people’s hesitancy about the vaccine. Pfizer’s chief executive Albert Bourla said the company is trying to relax the FDA’s requirements for freezing the vaccine, making vaccine administration less complicated. Bonus Read: “Vaccine Sales Lift Pfizer’s Quarterly Results,” (WSJ). 

As The Dream of Herd Immunity Fades, Experts Predict Winter Surges

With the goal of herd immunity – which, health experts estimate, will happen when about 80% of the U.S. population is vaccinated – looking increasingly less achievable, some experts are predicting future outbreaks (CNN). "The proof will be in the pudding next winter," said vaccine specialist Paul Offitt. "If we don't get there to 80%, then I think you'll see another surge of this virus next winter." The future of the pandemic depends on many factors, including vaccination rates, how many people have natural immunity, the rise of new variants, and public health measures. 

Covid-19 is Far More Likely to Cause Blood Clots than J&J Shot, Report Says

According to a report released Friday by the American Heart Association and American Stroke Association, cerebral venous sinus thrombosis – or, a rare blood clotting disorder in the brain, which has been linked to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine  – is 8-10 times more likely to result from Covid-19 infection than the J&J shot (Boston Globe). This report was based on health data from 81 majority-U.S. patients, gathered throughout the pandemic but before April 15 of this year. “COVID-19 infection is a significant risk factor for CVST,” said Dr. Karen Furie, the lead author of the report and chief of neurology at Lifespan Corporation. “The public can be reassured by the CDC’s and FDA’s investigation and these statistics – the likelihood of developing CVST after a Covid-19 vaccine is extremely low.” Urging all eligible adults to get the vaccine, Furie said Covid-19 can have many long-term effects, including blood clots. She also called for further research on cerebral venous sinus thrombosis following Covid-19 vaccination or infection. 

U.S. Puts India Travel Ban Into Motion

An order barring air travel from India to the U.S. for Indian nationals went into effect Tuesday, as Covid-19 cases surge in India (NPR). Across the globe, travel bans on India, particularly one imposed by Australia that we detailed in yesterday’s brief, have drawn public outcry and been denounced as discriminatory. While the U.S. travel ban is less stringent than those put into place by other countries, as it offers exceptions for students and journalists coming from India, it is likely to have some negative impact on individuals and businesses. An online petition has been launched with the goal of "allow(ing) non-immigrant visa holders stuck in India to return home" to the U.S.

With Rising Covid-19 Cases, Arizona is an Outlier

Coronavirus case counts are declining in the U.S., and 28 states have experienced a drop in new cases of at least 15% over the past two weeks – yet cases are rising in Arizona and Wyoming, which both saw an increase of 21% over that same interval (NYT). Will Humble, head of the Arizona Public Health Association, traced the rise in his state to the spread of variants like B.1.1.7 and an increase in travel. Humble clarified that because vaccination rates are higher among older adults, this increase in cases, driven by younger people, is unlikely to translate into a spike in deaths. Still, hospitalizations are on the rise. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey lifted all Covid-19 restrictions and put an end to mask mandates in March. “There’s no mitigation at all here, and there hasn’t been for months,” Humble said. Vaccination percentages in Arizona are only slightly below the national average, though doses have been used up unevenly throughout the state.

Bonus Read: “Meet Three Moderators Fighting Disinformation on Reddit’s Largest Coronavirus Forum,” (STAT).

Around the World

Bonus Read: “Global Vaccine Crisis Sends Ominous Signal for Fighting Climate Change,” (NYT). 

WHO Reviewing Two of China’s Vaccines 

The World Health Organization (WHO) is considering approving two of China’s Covid-19 vaccines for emergency use, which could allow for wider distribution of the vaccines to lower-income nations through COVAX, the global vaccine sharing initiative (Nature). China currently has five different vaccines, none of which have been widely used in wealthy nations, but are being administered in the global south. One of the two vaccines under review is made by Sinopharm, a Chinese state-owned firm, in Beijing. The other is produced by private company Sinovac. Both Sinopharm and Sinovac’s vaccines have been used widely across China to inoculate its 243 million people and more than 45 countries have already approved them. The WHO will assess the safety, efficacy, and manufacturing quality. 

G7 Foreign Ministers Meet In Person for First Time Since Pandemic Began

Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven wealthy industrialized countries met on Tuesday in London for the first face-to-face meeting in more than two years, with U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab declaring the meeting “demonstrates diplomacy is back” (AP). At the top of the agenda was the question of how to engage with a surging China. The group also discussed the aggressive stances of Russia and Iran. According to AP, “top diplomats from the U.K., the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan also were to discuss the military coup in Myanmar, the humanitarian crisis in Syria, the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia and the precarious situation in Afghanistan, where U.S. troops and their NATO allies are winding down a two-decade deployment.” The meeting continues today. 

Japan Considering Extending State of Emergency for Tokyo, Other Areas

The Japanese government is considering an extension of the state of emergency for Tokyo and other major urban areas that was scheduled to end on May 11, according to the Yomiuri Newspaper (Reuters). Japan placed Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo prefectures under a 17-day state of emergency on April 25 to counter the surge in coronavirus infections. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will meet with cabinet ministers on Wednesday to discuss the extension. The emergency extension would end just three months before the start of the Tokyo Olympics. 

High-Tech Hunt for Vaccines in India Raises Questions of Fairness

Indian tech experts have developed software code and websites to assist people in booking scarce Covid-19 vaccine appointments online, raising concerns about an unfair advantage for those who have access to the internet and are tech savvy. Only 2% of India’s 1.3 billion people have been fully vaccinated and the government is facing criticism for a slow vaccine rollout as a second wave of infections overtakes the country. The government has opened up vaccinations for adults from May 1 but people must register online in advance and slots are difficult to get as demand is high. Reuters writes, “In a bid to streamline the process, computer experts have used the publicly available coding of the CoWIN platform to create websites that post results every few minutes after running automated searches on the government website. Alerts are sent over email and routed to several Telegram app chat groups where thousands are waiting.” Many people in rural areas do not have access to high-speed internet or smartphones, meaning they will be some of the last people to receive the vaccine with the current processes in place. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Administration to Allow Redistribution of Unused Vaccine Among States

On Tuesday, the Biden administration said that it would soon begin reallocating unused vaccines from states that are not using them to those with greater demand (Politico, WSJ, WaPo). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Officials informed states of the new policy for allocating doses on a call with governors Tuesday morning. The effort is intended to account for the fact that demand is higher in some states than others. Many states are seeing vaccine appointments go unclaimed. Dozens of counties in Iowa, for example, recently declined new vaccination shipments because of a drop in demand.” Currently, the federal government distributes vaccines on a weekly basis to states, and the change would mean unused vaccines could be ordered by other states.

New York City Says No More Snow Days

On Tuesday, New York City its 2021-2022 calendar for public schools and in doing so announced that there would be no snow days for the year (ABC). Instead, following a year where students across the country largely attended school remotely, students will be expected to attend remotely on snow days. The Department of Education stated, “The DOE will shift all students to remote instruction in lieu of canceling schools due to severe weather conditions.”

Real Estate Companies Look to Turning Suburban Homes and Retail Spaces into Office Space

With hopes rising that the pandemic may be waning, many real estate companies are investing in turning suburban homes and retail spaces into office space (WSJ). The companies hope that as restrictions relax and people are vaccinated, workers will want to return to the office but will also want to do so closer to their homes.

U.S. Economy

Treasury Secretary: U.S. May Raise Interest Rates in Future

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that the government may raise interest rates in order to reduce concerns about overheating the economy and generating inflation (WaPo, NYT). Yellen made the comments while speaking with The Atlantic. Yellen stated, “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy does not overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.” As we have covered in prior briefs, the Federal Reserve, where the authority over interest rates sits, and Yellen have in the past tended to suggest that interest rates would remain near zero for the foreseeable future due to the pandemic’s economic impact.

Bonus Read: “Millions of Renters Brace for a Post-Pandemic Ax,” (Politico).

Analysis & Arguments

Emily Esfahani Smith writes that teenagers are struggling amid the pandemic, and it’s not just about lockdowns (NYT).

Richard A Friedman argues that people should not underestimate their resilience amid the mental health strains of the pandemic (NYT).

Dhruv Khullar writes on a hospital dealing with India’s surging Covid crisis (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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