Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

(4/5/2018)

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Reader,

Welcome to the fourth issue of CPG's Asia in Review in May 2018, updating you on the latest developments in law, politics and international relations in Asia. 

I hope you enjoy reading!

Best regards

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

Is mandated family planning eventually coming to an end in China?

(jk) China’s infamous one-child policy ended in 2015. Before that, there were already some exceptions in place, with a particular loosening of the policy in 2013 when it was possible for couples in which one partner was an only child could have more than one child. For many observers back then, it was only a matter of time for the policy to be scrapped entirely. Now, the policy it was replaced with – the two-child policy is looking to undergo a similar fate. According to the [Global Times], policy adjustments are needed based on demographic trends and the view is changing from a large population being a burden to it providing more human capital and creativity. According to anonymous sources that are allegedly close to Chinese policy making circles, an end of the planning policies and the beginning of “independent fertility” could come as soon as by the end of this year [SCMP].

China jails Tibetan language activist for five years

(am) An activist - Tashi Wangchuk - who campaigned for Tibetan language education has been sentenced to five years in prison for “inciting separatism.” Previously, he has been in jail for more than two years after appearing in a New York Times documentary talking about his campaign for Tibetan language in local schools. The video, “A Tibetan’s Journey for Justice,” followed him as he travelled from Tibet to Beijing where he attempted to file a lawsuit against local officials for contravening China’s constitution, which maintains that all ethnicities in China “have the freedom to use and develop their own spoken and written languages”. [The Guardian]

After Tashi's trial, six experts advising the United Nations on rights said: "We condemn the continued detention of Mr Wangchuk and the criminalisation of his freedom of expression." [The Strait Times]

China: All mosques to raise national flag

(am) The China Islamic Association has made it mandatory for all mosques in the country to raise the national flag and to study socialist core values. The diktat has been passed in a bid to “strengthen concept of nation” and carry forward “the spirit of patriotism”. [Global Times] [Zee News]

Changing attitudes on women and sexual harassment in Japan?

(jk) After last month’s sexual harassment scandal in Japan, women are finally hopeful that things will change. Last month, a high Finance Ministry bureaucrat formally resigned over allegations of having sexually harassed female journalists. Many of his advances were actually caught on audio recordings by one harassed journalist, although he initially denied that the recorded voice is his own. While there is a culture of overlooking or not reporting sexual harassment in Japan, the incident has begun to change attitudes and more and more female journalists are revealing sexual harassment in the workplace.

A recent survey, and the first of its kind has found that almost 1/3 of women have experienced sexual harassment in their workplace [The Guardian]. With the #WithYou campaign taking off and protests in the streets for more equality, more heads are rolling. The governor of Tokyo has on Wednesday announced his intention to resign over similar allegations [Japan Times].  Despite recent advances, the unequal treatment of women is still deeply ingrained in traditional Japanese society [The Daily Beast].

In an effort to balance male and female participation in politics, a new law has been enacted which states that political parties and groups should aim to make the number of male and female candidates as equal as possible. It is a careful effort for now, not stipulating any penalties and calling for voluntary efforts, such as setting up targets, to increase the number of women in politics. [Japan Times II]

South Korea divided on legality of abortion

(jk) South Korea’s Constitutional Court is reviewing a challenge from a doctor who was prosecuted for performing almost 70 abortions over the past years. Abortion is illegal in South Korea and both the pregnant women as well as their doctors can face criminal charges. The Korean society is split on this issue advocates on both sides of the discussion petitioning the Court to scrap or reinforce the existing laws on abortion. [Korea Herald]

South Korea: Still no constitutional amendments

(jk) The proposed constitutional amendments by President Moon mainly regarding the power structure of the Korean political system and Presidential term limits were once again stopped in its tracks early on. President Moon had submitted an amendment bill to the National Assembly in March. According to Article 130 of the Constitution, the National Assembly should hold a vote on the constitutional amendment bill within 60 days after its submission, and at least two-thirds of the lawmakers should approve in order for it to pass. The lawmakers have now voted on the bill but it a two-thirds majority was not reached. The vote was far from close with the main opposition party attending the session but boycotting the vote. [Korea Herald]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Congress’ final victory in Karnataka as a major setback for BJP

(ot) India´s governing party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), suffered a setback after a state election in the federal state of Karnatka. After BJP won 104 seats out of 222 it emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a simple majority necessary to form the government. After having been invited by the governor to form the next government and given 15 days to form a majority, the oppositional Congress party and a local ally, Janata Dal (Secular) party, claimed to command 117 seats in the new assembly. [Asia Times 1]

In a latest twist, India’s Supreme Court has ordered BJP now to conduct the so-called floor test to prove its majority in the state assembly reducing the initially granted timeframe from 15 to 2.5 days. After failing the test, the newly appointed BJP governor announced his resignation leading the Congress-led party coalition to make its nominee the new Chief Minister. [Asia Times 2, the Hindu]

For the BJP, to gain control over Karnataka would have been a strategically important step regarding the party´s presence in India´s South with the general elections in 2019 ahead.

The Karnataka election proves not only the intensity of the BJP – Congress rivalry once more but also raises concern whether the rules of the electoral game are sufficiently clear and internalized by the various actors. [Time, Foreign Policy]

Pakistan: Ex-PM Sharif accuses army intelligence of being behind his dismissal

(ot) Three time elected and unseated former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif alleged a former intelligence chief had asked him to resign during opposition protests against his government in 2014 as he refused to drop a treason case against former army chief Pervez Musharraf. Having been removed from office last year due to non - declared assets following the Panama Papers revelations, Sharif also claimed to have recently been dismissed by the Supreme Court for his foreign policy. Here he clashed with the military over geopolitical key issues such as relations with India, Afghanistan, and the United States. [Al Jazeera, Channel News Asia]

Pakistan: Parliament passes landmark bill for tribal areas reforms

(ot) By constitutional amendment the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with their special status have been merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

The FATA consist of seven tribal districts that have continued to be under direct rule from the capital since Pakistan gained independence from the British in 1947. The unrest region is a sanctuary of the Pakistan Taliban and al-Qaeda.

The amendment is supposed to improve the political, administrative, and human rights status of the former FATA. By merging it into the northwestern KP province, government services such as healthcare, education, and policing will be made available to the tribal areas with its five million citizens. The amendment also abolishes the draconian colonial-era Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) that left citizens of the tribal areas with no recourse to courts. [Al Jazeera, Pakistan Today, The Express Tribune]

Bangladesh launches its own war on drugs

(am) Bangladesh’s security forces have killed more than 30 alleged drug dealers over the past weeks with right activists warning a campaign of extra-judicial killings may be underway. [Al Jazeera] “We’ve contained (Islamist) militancy,” said Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheik Hasina to announce: “Now we’ve taken an initiative to save the country from this drug menace.” Thousands of alleged dealers have also been arrested in an aggressive campaign that some analysts have compared to President Rodrigo Duterte’s controversial war on drugs in the Philippines. [Northeast Now] [Dhaka Tribune]

Maldives: Struggle between Election Commission and major opposition party over nomination for presidential primaries

(jm) As the main opposition party will hold its presidential primary on May 30, the only candidate, self-exiled former President Nasheed, submitted his candidacy papers to the Electoral Commission (EC). This, he did despite being legally barred from doing so under the Constitution and the Jails and Parole law due to his – controversial - conviction to a 13-year prison sentence for terrorism. In response, the EC announced to reject any candidate that would not meet required qualification criteria and went even further by threatening to ask the High Court to dissolve the party in case it would proceed with Nasheed. [Maldives Independent 1], [The Sun], [Avas], [Maldives Independent 2]

Meanwhile, the Ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), announced its decision to give the party's presidential ticket for the upcoming presidential elections to incumbent President Yameen. [Avas]

Sri Lanka / United Kingdom: Files on Tamil Tigers and MI5 in Sri Lanka erased at Foreign Office

(jm) Britain’s Foreign Office destroyed 195 files dating from 1978 to 1980 about the Sri Lankan Civil War in which, British military intelligence - MI5 - and special operation forces - SAS - secretly advised the Sri Lankan security forces.

Under the UK Public Records Act 1958 government departments are obliged to preserve historic records. The government argued however the files’ content “may be [merely] of a policy nature but might also be administrative or ephemeral”.

Having filed a complaint with UNESCO, the international body that protects world heritage, an academic called the discovery “very concerning” referring to cases of the deliberate destruction of files on the Kenyan context which were motivated to conceal and deny abuse during the Kenyan anti-colonial struggle.

The executive secretary of the London based Tamil Information Center said: “The Tamil community is taking strenuous efforts to collect and preserve records on history and the human rights situation in post-independence Sri Lanka […] We are horrified to learn that the UK’s Foreign Office has destroyed vital information on the British government’s training and arming of Sri Lankan security forces, which were involved in widespread human rights violations against the Tamils.” [The Guardian]

Seychelles: Bill guaranteeing freedom of information is approved by lawmakers in Seychelles

(jm) A new law regulates access to public information and creates a new public body responsible for facilitating access to such information as well as the implementation of new sanctions for those who restrain access.

[Seychelles News Agency]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: US to put sanctions on Cambodian officials

(ls) Bipartisan legislation introduced in the US Congress to enact sanctions on Cambodian officials responsible for “undermining democracy” in the Kingdom, has drawn the criticism of Cambodian government officials and the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), saying they regarded the potential action as the “violation of independence and sovereignty of Cambodia”. The legislation would freeze assets, restrict all financial transactions with the US, and deny entry into the US all senior Cambodian government, military and security officials who US President Donald Trump determines have “directly and substantially undermined democracy in Cambodia”. [Phnom Penh Post]

Indonesia: 20 years of Reformasi

(ls) After the end of the three-decades long presidency of Muhammad Suharto in 1998, Indonesia entered the “Reformasi” era, a period of transition toward democracy and a more liberal political-social environment. Twenty years later, it is again time to assess the successes, remaining challenges and steps ahead. In the South China Morning Post Jeffrey Hutton argues, that, by any objective measure, Reformasi has been a success: Power has been transferred peacefully between five presidents, two of them directly elected. Conflicts in Aceh and elsewhere were eventually quelled with devolved powers and autonomy. However, he also points to Indonesia’s endemic graft problem, the power of entrenched elites and a surge of religious conservatism as major challenges. [South China Morning Post]

A rising tide of Islamism has been among the most noteworthy phenomena to emerge in the country over the past 20 years, argues Yahya Cholil Staquf in the Jakarta Post. Pointing to historic roots, he describes how, both before and after Indonesia achieved independence, its founding fathers had to grapple with the tension that exists between Islamic orthodoxy and the ideals of the modern nation-state. He holds that rising Islamism is a “rebound” of the perennial Islamist aspiration and its accompanying pressure to transform Indonesia from a Pancasila nation-state to an Islamic state. [Jakarta Post]

Edward Aspinall describes how the quality of Indonesia’s democracy was a problem from the beginning and holds that under President Joko Widodo democratic quality has begun to slide dramatically. However, he also points to the fact that the post-Suharto democracy has now lasted longer than did Indonesia’s earlier period of parliamentary democracy (1950–1957), and the subsequent Guided Democracy regime (1957–65). Despite all current challenges, democratic electoral competition has become an essential part of Indonesia’s political architecture. [New Mandala]

Indonesia: Tougher anti-terror legislation, revival of joint command and containment of online radicalism

(ls/am) Indonesia’s parliament has adopted tough anti-terrorism laws on Friday as it seeks to combat a surge in homegrown Islamist militancy after two attacks this month, in which two families, including children, carried out suicide attacks on churches and a police station in Surabaya. The revised law will allow police to preemptively detain suspects for up to 21 days and prosecute those who join or recruit for militant groups. [Reuters]

In addition, special operations units from Indonesia’s air force, army and navy are set to play a bigger role in the war on terror. The military’s Joint Special Operations Command has been reactivated to support the police in counter-terrorism operations at home. The joint command, better known as Koopssusgab, is made up of the country’s elite special operations units from all three service branches such as Kopassus (army), Kopaska (navy) and Detachment Bravo-90 (air force). The move was criticized by the National Commission for Human Rights over worries that the military may gain excessive powers. [Straits Times]

The government has also moved to block thousands of websites containing radicalism and will continue to check the internet as one of the efforts to secure the cyberspace from contents related to radicalism and terrorism. Nearly 3,000 websites disseminating radicalism have been blocked in the recent move and about 9,500 other sites are being inspected according to the Communication and Information Minister. [Xinhua]

Malaysia: New Cabinet defines policies as anti-corruption crackdown intensifies

(ls/am) Malaysia’s new Cabinet held its first meeting on Wednesday. The 14-member Cabinet decided that each minister will take a 10 per cent salary cut and that nine agencies will be dissolved, mostly bodies that played political roles for the previous Barisan Nasional (BN) administration. Among them are the government’s propaganda unit called Special Affairs Department (Jasa), the National Council of Professors that groups academicians, the Federal Village Development and Security Committee and the Malaysian External Intelligence Organisation. [Straits Times 1]

The Malaysian Home Ministry will review seven laws relating to national security that are no longer suitable in today’s landscape, said the new Home Minister. These laws are the: Printing Presses and Publications Act 1984, Sedition Act 1948, Peaceful Assembly Act 2012, Prevention of Crime Act 1959 (POCA), Security Offences (Special Measures) Act 2012 (SOSMA), Prevention of Terrorism Act 2015 (POTA), and the mandatory death sentence for certain crimes. [Channel News Asia] A serious reform regarding these laws would be a remarkable step as they have been an important pillar of the latently repressive state, having ensured regime stability for decades. 

The Straits Times has summarized the new government’s key reform policies ranging from economic, tax, healthcare and corporate reforms to reducing foreign labor. [Straits Times 2]

Meanwhile, Anwar Ibrahim, who is expected to replace 92-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in a year or two, said Malaysia must assure the nation’s largest racial group that its security would be upheld. Previously Anwar had called for affirmative action policies that favor ethnic Malays to be dismantled. In 1971, two years after race riots that left hundreds dead, the Prime Minister Abdul Razak initiated Malaysia’s New Economic Policy, giving ethnic Malays cheaper housing and quotas for college scholarships, government contracts and shares of listed companies. It sought to raise the share of national wealth for Malays and indigenous groups known as Bumiputera, or “sons of the soil,” who currently account for about 70 percent of the population. [Bloomberg]

In ongoing anti-corruption investigations against the previous government, Malaysian police has seized money amounting to 114 million ringgit (US$28.6 million) in an apartment linked to ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak. Najib’s party UMNO said that the money was campaign contributions and party funding left over after the election, about to be transferred to the party’s new leadership. UMNO has long been known for its ‘cash politics’, as the party has built its support among ethnic Malays through a system of patronage. [South China Morning Post 1]

The 1MDB scandal is clearly dominating the agenda of the new government, after it campaigned on alleged wrongdoing at the fund in the election. Ex-PM Najib appeared at the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) headquarters on Thursday for six hours of questioning related to 1MDB. A Malaysian task force investigating the fund met with officials from the US Department of Justice and the FBI to discuss the focus and direction of probes. [South China Morning Post 2]

Myanmar: New evidence reveals massacre by Rohingya armed group

(ls) An investigation conducted by Amnesty International has revealed that Rohingya militants belonging to the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) massacred 99 Hindu villagers during last year’s uprising in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. The killings took place on August 25, 2017, the report said, the same day that the Rohingya insurgents staged coordinated deadly raids on police posts that tipped the state into crisis. The report sheds light on the complex ethnic rivalries in Rakhine. [Amnesty International] Back in 2017, Myanmar’s military responded to the insurgent raids with harsh reprisals that forced some 700,000 Rohingya Muslims out of the mainly Buddhist country.

Philippines: The dismantling of a liberal democracy

(ls) For long, Philippine president Duterte’s war on drugs has been the center of international attention. However, in the face of recent developments, with the removal of Supreme Court chief justice Soreno being the latest incident, Cristina Regina Bonoan and Björn Dressel write in the New Mandala that impeachment and judicial politics in the Philippines may say much more about the future of Asia’s oldest democracy. They hold that Soreno’s removal and threats against other high-ranking officials have the potential to erode the Philippines’s democratic liberal institutions and threaten to push the country further into illiberalism. Bonoan and Dressel analyze past impeachments under the 1987 constitution, impeachments under the Duterte administration and trace back the increasing politicization of the country’s highest court. [New Mandala]

In the New York Times, Miguel Syjuco points to the reign of celebrity, dynasties and nepotism, which makes Philippine democracy the opposite of a meritocracy. Describing the country’s political culture, he writes that incompetence is forgiven in return for fidelity to the rulers, while fame and its pursuit are spun as competence. [New York Times]

Thailand: Protests at fourth anniversary of the military coup

(ls) Marking the fourth anniversary of 2014’s military coup in Thailand, pro-democracy activists protested for elections to be held this year. However, most of the protesters were contained at Thammasat University in Bangkok’s old quarter. The rally attracted several hundred people, far short of the thousands the democracy movement had hoped. Security provisions imposed by the ruling junta have made any political gathering of more than four people illegal. [New York Times]

15 activists who were arrested on Tuesday have subsequently been released on bail. They each face six counts including sedition, the most serious charge, which carries a maximum prison term of seven years. The court approved bail on condition they refrain from taking part in any political activities during their temporary release. [Bangkok Post]

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha declared last year that the election would be held by this November, but that date was changed again when junta-appointed legislators agreed to delay the enactment of an election law by 90 days, placing it at next February. In the face of the protests, Prayut Tuesday insisted that the poll would be no sooner than early 2019. [The Nation]

With more than 1,600 days in office, Prayuth has already served longer than the last elected prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra (1,006 days) and her predecessor Abhisit Vejjajiva (961 days). In Khaosod English, Teeranai Charuvastra analyzes how the ruling National Council for Peace and Order managed to stay in office that long. According to his assessment, the reasons range from the junta’s use of brute force to Prayuth’s personal influence. [Khaosod English]

Thailand: Multiple bomb attacks in the deep south

(ls) Multiple bomb attacks by suspected separatist insurgents injured at least three people in Thailand’s far south on last week’s Sunday. Explosives were placed near ATM machines and bank branches in 14 locations across four southern provinces, including Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, as well as Songkhla province. The decades-old separatist insurgency has claimed the lives of nearly 7,000 people since 2004. [Reuters]

Thailand/Myanmar agree to boost anti-drug efforts

(am) Thailand and Myanmar have agreed on increased border cooperation to crackdown on the narcotics trade. Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister ACM Prajin Jantong, along with the Thai delegation, met with Myanmar's Union Minister for Home Affairs Lt Gen Kyaw Swe where he confirmed the Thai government's readiness to support joint efforts in all respects, which includes dedicating the necessary fund and human resources to Myanmar's anti-drug effort. Following discussions, Thailand accepted Myanmar's offer to boost cooperation on all security agendas other than narcotics. Both countries also agreed to hold regular ministerial meetings as well as a meeting on chemical products control between Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, and China. [NNT]

Vietnam set to pass laws at 20-day meeting

(am) Vietnam's highest legislative body, the National Assembly, started their summer session on Monday and is expected to approve eight bills, including two on cyber security and special economic zones which have sparked heated debates over the past months. Nearly 500 members of the 14th National Assembly will meet in Hanoi until June 14 and around 40 percent of the session will be aired live on national television.

Vietnam has planned to establish three special economic zones (SEZ): Van Don in the northern Quang Ninh Province, Bac Van Phong in the central Khanh Hoa Province and Phu Quoc in the southern Kien Giang Province. [VN Express International]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Eurasia: Shifting geopolitical realities from Europe over Russia to India

(hg) After President Trump´s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the US is dramatically losing geopolitical ground in Europe and Asia over the past weeks.

Clearest indicator of a revered trend is Russia´s international position after staunch US ally UK hastily built an anti – Russia alliance after the Skripal spy affair, the poisoning of the former British spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in March. The US, UK and French attacks on Syria for the alleged use of gas against civilians by the Syrian government which is militarily supported by Russia and Iran, reinforced this front with the concerted Western response resembling Cold War times.

Surprisingly quick though, this situation took a drastic turn with the international response to the US announcement to leave the Iran nuclear deal and its threats to impose massive sanctions against Iran. All other partners to the deal immediately declared to still support it, including France and Germany triggering also a rethinking of their relations with Russia and China, also partners to the nuclear deal. Against this background, recent trips of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron to Russia represent a switch in their engagement with Moscow.

After Chancellor Merkel had what might be described a ‘rational discourse’ with President Putin in Moscow, French President Macron even topped that with demonstratively cordial manners when meeting Putin last week.

That is was more than just a nice façade is evidenced by France's Total sealing a gas deal with Russian Novatek, owned by Putin's friend Gennady Timchenko, at the St Petersburg Economic Forum at the same time. [NPR] - Not accidently, Total is currently threatened by possible US sanctions concerning its $2 billion investment in the Iranian South Pars gas field.

Moreover, the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum was a success in other regards as well. After all, President Putin could gather French President Macron together with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde at a plenary session of the forum demonstrating that he is back on the international stage.

An important message for Prime Minister Abe was Putin´s proposal to jointly look for a solution that would allow Japan and Russia to finally conclude a World War II peace treaty. [Euronews] In context of Abe´s visit to Russia the Japanese Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry highlighted Russia-Japan economic ties had gained an unprecedented momentum. [Tass].

Most important however, is the conspicuous re-affirmation of Indian – Russian friendship on occasion of an informal summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin.

Pictures of the meeting that are telling of a fully relaxed and cordial atmosphere between the two leaders are underscored by Modi´s message to Putin: “Russia is India's old-time friend. We share long-standing historical ties, and Mr. President is my personal friend and a friend of India” added by the affirmation: “For the past four years, you and I stood side by side in the bilateral format and on the international stage ... I am very glad that it was so.”

For President Trump, this affirmation of Indian – Russian friendship counts as a double punch. First, after having engaged Russia internationally in a decisive zero-sum game manner, Russia re-gaining an important friend means an according loss for Trump. Second, the US have to fear to lose a cornerstone of their own strategy to consolidate Asia´s geopolitical order against China. At least at the moment, a firm anti-China front seems to be only wishful thinking after month of promising developments. Now, after especially India seemed to have decisively turned towards the US and Putin having been almost isolated internationally, the situation changed since the escalation of the Skripal affair, followed by more aggressive US policies on trade and Iran.

Before visiting Moscow, the Indian Prime Minister hold informal talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as well due to which both leaders relaxed bilateral relations, showing also that Delhi sided with China in the emerging shadow trade war with the US. Now, India is demonstrating that it wants to continue its partnerships with both Russia and Iran. Ties with Russia represent a long-standing and robust relationship of neighbouring countries with India having extensive energy and defence relationship with Russia. Russian and Indian economic ties have just experienced a highlight last year with the biggest foreign acquisition ever in India when Russian oil major Rosneft closed a $12.9bn purchase of Indian refiner Essar Oil. Diplomatically, Russia has also facilitated India's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and endorsed its demand for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. Similar to Russia, Iran is another old friend of Delhi which has strong strategic interest to keep this friendship. [Al Jazeera]

While India will probably try to not let its friendship to Russia and Iran impact the more nascent ties with the US, the US seem not to have priority for India anymore. In other words: If the US is actually pursuing its relationship to India as a zero-sum-game regarding Iran and Russia, Delhi cannot be expected to side with Washington.

The general picture indicates that US foreign policy under President Trump  and National Security Advisor Bolton seems to have overplayed its – originally favourable – hand, exerting too early too much pressure on too many allies on too unpredicted terms.

A first fissure emerged in the wake of the Skripal affair whose handling prompted China to explicitly side with Russia at the April security conference in Moscow where the Chinese defense minister unanticipatedly declared effectively military solidarity with Russia in direction of Washington. India´s defence minister acknowledged at the same occasion that “Russia has re-established its role and influence in global strategic and defence matters”, a remark that implied appreciation for the Russian role in Syria.

Then came both the withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal and the increasingly aggressive US trade policy. In its wake, India is facing hefty import tariffs while sanctions on Iran upset India's relations with Tehran, including its operations and investments at a strategic port project in Iran. Currently, Delhi is still waiting for an exemption from higher tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US which is also imposing tougher visa rules that target India's information technology industry. [Al Jazeera]

At the same, India felt its new friend´s pressure already when dealing with Russia over the acquisition of the state-of-the-art S-400 missile defence system facing the threat by the US Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

The chief of India's national security advisory board and former Indian envoy to Russia analysed the situation as follows: “We are witness to a very acrimonious standoff between the US and Russia which has gone on to levels that didn't prevail even during the Cold War. These anti-Russia sanctions have an extra-territorial applicability - this draws in everybody”. [Al Jazeera]

Currently, India is obviously rethinking its foreign policy and in the meanwhile walking a tightrope between Moscow and Washington, that might soon be ended to the disadvantage of India – US ties. That, however, could contribute to a sustaining revival of the BRICS – the association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - plus Iran.

 Anyway, a next step in Indian – Russian relationships is a mega economic Summit of 100 CEOs as a follow up of Prime Minister Modi´s to Sochi. [Economic Times]

Meanwhile, Russia´s position in Europe is also improving with strategic projects such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running under the Baltic Sea and TurkStream crossing the Black Sea both advancing. Both Germany and Turkey, Gazprom's most significant customers, seems to resist pressure from the Trump administration to refrain from the pipeline projects.

Additionally, the European Commission has ruled in an anti-trust case against Gazprom which looks favourable for both sides. While Gazprom had to bow to Brussels' conditions, the Commission eventually accepted a settlement offer instead of imposing a hefty penalty which could have been as high as 10 percent of Gazprom's turnover as the Commission did with Google which was handed out a record-breaking 2.4 billion-euro fine for violating the EU's anti-trust law. [Al Jazeera 2]

Moreover, Russia’s economy seems to be better than casual observers might expect regarding tough sanctions and a political isolation that, however, seems to run to be markedly softened. For Russia, the major economic risk would be a sharp drop in global energy prices, which are on the one hand currently on the upswing while a drop would also hit major US ally Saudi Arabia severely. [CNBC]

The upcoming World Cup in Russia might also turn out to further stabilize the positive trend for Russia with President Macron having already announced to come to Russia if the French team makes it to the final. These changes notwithstanding, there is serious pressure on Russia remaining. Besides the US, this pressure is mainly driven by the UK with her majesty’s foreign secretary having even compared the Russian World Cup with Hitler’s 1936 Olympics.

Earlier this month it was reported that the UK plans to use four major summits – those of the G7, G20, NATO and EU – to deepen the UK/US led alliance against Russia. Calling Russia’s response to the gas attacks in Syria and Salisbury a turning point that warrants a broad Russian containment strategy, aim of the British advancement is a comprehensive strategy and to urge a rethink over traditional diplomatic dialogue with Moscow. [The Guardian]. If the UK will continue with this plan remains to be seen, a great deal of its momentum is currently gone.

British politicians are, however, not alone in claiming Russia would make traditional diplomacy ineffective. They are especially supported by some Eastern European governments such as Poland or some Baltic politicians. [The Guardian]

While the debate over the claimed Russian or Syrian responsibility for the gas attacks in Salisbury and Douma is silting and convincing evidence still lacking, the Netherlands and Australia have just accused Russia of being directly responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 which was shot in 2014 over the Ukraine. Moreover, putting some real pressure on Russia, NATO is advancing two exercises “Atlantic resolve” and “Sabre Strike” that will improve interoperability of NATO forces and serve NATO’s deterrence mission towards Russia. ‘Saber Strike’ is an annual, U.S. Army Europe-led cooperative training exercise focusing at te Baltic states that will take place in multiple locations throughout Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland May 28-June 24. This year, 11,000 U.S. and NATO military members from 20 countries will participate including forces from Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia, the United Kingdom and the United States. [US Army Europe]

Held since 2010 which once involved only 2000 troops, the 2016 exercise was criticized by German Federal President and then Foreign Minister Steinmeier as a provocative confrontation policy. [FAZ] Atlantic Resolve is a demonstration of the U.S. commitment to collective security through a series of actions designed to reassure of America's dedication to stability in the region in light of the Russian intervention in Ukraine. [US Army Europe 2]

In sum, global order has manifested in the last two weeks as even more fluid and open to surprises with the latest US moves concerning especially Iran causing some flurry adjustments of diplomatic relations all across the globe. More important, there is a possibility of sustaining change with unpredictable impact for global order while major conflicts remain unresolved.

No summit! Who is to blame for troubles on DPRK talks?

(jk) As mentioned in last couple of AiR issues, there were doubts on just about everything in relation to the potential US-DPRK leadership meeting. More recently, discussion on details of for instance the definitions of “denuclearisation” had given way to discussions of cancelling or at least delaying the meeting altogether.

As of Thursday, we know that the talks are, at least for now, not going to happen. While US President Trump has made clear that he sees China responsible for a shift in Kim Jong Un’s attitude, others have pointed out that it could also be the US side, for example through comments made by National Security Advisor Bolton as reported last week. Another feeling that prevails particularly among critics of President Trump, is that there is a distinct lack of preparation for the talks and that there are still fundamental misunderstandings on most relevant matters such as DPRK’s willingness to unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons. [WaPo] The President’s supporters argue that the move is absolutely part of a greater strategy and that Trump by showing his willingness to “walk away” actually will help strengthen his bargaining position.

What irked the US of late was North Korea’s cancellation of a planned meeting with South Korea and that it had threatened to pull out of the Singapore summit because of ongoing US-South Korean military exercises. It had furthermore lashed out at the US administration on Wednesday when a vice-minister in the North Korean Foreign Ministry, issued strong and insulting words to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and threatened a nuclear showdown. Going back to insults and nuclear posturing allegedly was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered a written response by President Trump in form of a letter that was published on Thursday morning.

The letter Trump has sent to Kim Jong Un on the cancellation reverted back to earlier versions of Trump’s particular style of diplomacy: "You talk about your nuclear capabilities," Trump wrote, "but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used." [White House] Despite the setback, President Trump hailed the “beautiful dialogue” that was building initially and he signalled that he would consider to return to negotiations under other circumstances. The DPRK, also on Thursday, appeared to destroy at least three nuclear tunnels, observation buildings, a metal foundry and living quarters at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. [CNN] It has also signalled willingness to conduct a meeting at a later stage.

PRC Maritime Activity / PLA Navy Disinvited from RIMPAC

(jk) The U.S. Defense Department disinvited China from the forthcoming Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise due to strong evidence of militarisation in the South China Sea. The message broke as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on a visit to Washington. The DoD lamented that the PRC had deployed anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missile systems, and electronic jammers to contested features in the Spratly Islands. Moreover, China has landed nuclear capable bomber aircraft at Woody Island in a move that further cements the US PACOM’s belief that China is now capable of controlling the SCS in all scenarios short of a war with the US [Independent]. Shortly after the news of the bomber aircraft became known, China’s Coast Guard conducted their first joint patrol with the PLAN and expelled foreign ships from the water around the disputed Paracel Islands. The move is seen as a warning to Vietnam after a Vietnamese subsidiary of Russian oil firm Rosneft had started drilling in the area [SCMP]. Vietnam also claims that Chinese ships have regularly “invaded” Vietnamese waters over the past few months and sometimes fished (accompanied by special forces) only 30 or 40 nautical miles off Vietnam’s coast [VN Express].

“Hawkish” US China observers welcome the decision as more and more concerning Chinese behaviour in the SCS is lamented by them. Some see the actions of the PLAN and its global strategy as a clear pathway to creating a whole new global order. The US House Intelligence Committee has recently heard that the Chinese Navy could in 12 years be twice the size of its US counterpart and that, according to the presenting expert, “the strategic balance has shifted in the PRC’s favor and against America’s security and interests”. He goes much further in stating that the “PLA Navy is China’s point of the spear in its quest for global hegemony“. [US House - for full testimony]

Global hegemony or not, it is far less controversial that many of Beijing’s moves stand in clear violation of China’s promise not to further militarise the SCS and the DoD has called on China to remove the military systems immediately and to reverse course on the militarization of disputed SCS features. As for RIMPAC, China has taken part in the biannual exercises in 2014 and 2016, but recent aggression on their behalf led the US authorities to withdraw the invitation for 2018. [WaPo]

This is a strong signal that has been sent to Beijing and a clear sign of a push back against Chinese behaviour in the SCS. However, previous countries that had been disinvited, e.g. Russia in 2016 following the annexation of Crimea, had sent (spy) ships to observe the exercises anyway so it is possible that China will follow a similar strategy. It also has to be considered that President Trump may re-invite the PRC to the exercises, given his history on sharp turnarounds on foreign policy matters. This week’s news on the DPRK summit are just one more example of this.

For some very well done visual input on how China has changed realities in the SCS over the past few years, do check out this excellent infographic page by [Reuters].

More on the new People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – Australian perspective

(jk) The Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre has published a new report in its Centre of Gravity essay series, titled China’s New Navy: A Short Guide for Australian Policy-Makers. In addition to policy recommendations and implications in the Australian context, the report describes huge capability leaps China has made. It finds that while China’s maritime modernisation was previously focussed on capabilities making it difficult for the US and its allies to operate close to China, it is now also about signalling Beijing’s status as a great power and its ability to pressure neighbouring countries. It says that America’s naval predominance will be replaced by a multipolar balance in North Asia, while Southeast Asia will be dominated by the PRC.

Australia ought to plan for a future in which its major ally is not the uncontested maritime leader in the region, and in fact take a leaf out of the Chinese playbook and focus its maritime force structure on anti-access and area denial capabilities. [ANU]

China, the Philippines, Vietnam and the South China Sea

(ls) A spokesman for Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte voiced “very serious concern” over reports that China has landed long-range bombers on its islands in the disputed South China Sea. The foreign ministry said it is taking “appropriate”, but low-key, diplomatic action to protect the country’s claims and to continue to do so in the future. The Philippines did not condemn China’s action “to avoid any drawbacks and challenges”. [Straits Times]

Facing criticism over his apparent inaction, Duterte questioned where his country would end up should war erupt in the region. “What will we arm ourselves with if there’s a war? (…) How will we even fight with the Chinese?” Instead, he emphasized his goal to forge a joint exploration pact with China to harness the disputed sea’s potential. [Bloomberg]

Debasish Roy Chowdhury describes in the South China Morning Post how Duterte’s popularity has held so far but if it starts to give way, the opposition and the military brass may start mounting pressure to confront Beijing. Duterte is left with little room to maneuver in the face of China’s military capabilities. If China gets too aggressive, however, Manila may turn more and more to the US for support. [South China Morning Post]

At the start of his administration, Duterte threatened to scrap defense treaties with the US in favor of closer ties with China and perhaps Russia. However, as Rappler writes, alliances among militaries, especially one as longstanding as the Philippines and the US, cannot be broken or built overnight. It takes years or decades to synchronize tactics, techniques, and procedures to achieve interoperability. According to military analysts, there have been “cosmetic” but no significant changes in the country’s ties with the US military. Cooperation during the siege of Marawi put this on display. [Rappler]

China’s and Vietnam’s opposing interests in the South China Sea are becoming more and more visible as well. Last week, Rosneft Vietnam BV, a unit of Russian state oil firm Rosneft, was concerned its recent drilling in one such block could upset Beijing. Vietnam’s foreign ministry responded asserting that the blocks are “entirely under Vietnamese sovereignty and jurisdiction”, whereas Beijing warned to respect its sovereign rights. China’s claims in the South China Sea overlap the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. If China’s nine dashes were connected as one continuous line, it would bisect or incorporate 67 of Vietnam’s oil blocks. [Reuters]

In the face of such tensions, Vietnam has reinforced cooperation with Australia. Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang and Australian Governor-General Peter Cosgrove agreed to boost cooperation to maintain peace in the region. “The two nations are on the same side about disputed issues in the East Sea and will work together to initiate the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP),” President Quang said. [VN Express]

Merkel’s China visit

(jk) German Chancellor Angela Merkel has met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi in Beijing and discussed global free trade as well as pointed to a lack of reciprocity in each other’s market access. Major German companies, who’s leaders accompanied Merkel on her journey, have complained about increasing difficulties, particularly in terms of investment and forced technology transfer. While market access and economic relations dictate much of the agenda, human rights issues were also mentioned by Merkel but as in previous years, there is little room to manoeuvre on these issues. German concerns over 16+1 – a grouping of 16 central and eastern European countries led by China – were also addressed.  China’s leaders said they supported a united EU and there was no pressuring of smaller member states through which China is trying to influence policies of the EU. To increase transparency and alleviate concerns, representatives from the EU will be invited to attend 16+1 meetings. [SZ in German; SCMP]

Taiwan once again not invited to observe World Health Assembly and other “Orwellian nonsense”

(jk) The World Health Assembly (WHA) is the the World Health Organization’s (WHO) decision making body and the world's highest health policy apparatus composed of health ministers from member states and number of “observers”. These have from 2009 to 2016 included the Republic of China (Taiwan). For the second year in a row, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to release a press statement that the WHO has failed to invite Taipei. The assembly took place this past week in Geneva, Switzerland.

CPG Senior Research Associate Kerry Gershaneck is arguing in an opinion piece [The Nation] that this is the result of distinct political pressuring from Beijing, who’s leaders are looking to incrementally increase pressure and isolate Taiwan diplomatically in spite of the latter’s significant contribution to international public health.

China in the meantime is celebrating the exclusion of Taiwan as a success and take this as a sign that the Chinese “One China Principle” is now widely accepted. They assert that the ‘fault’ of not being invited lies firmly with the current government in Taipei who have not officially and fully embraced the “1992 consensus” and complicate “peaceful and stable cross-Strait relations” [China Daily].

The EU, US and other countries including New Zeeland and Canada have spoken out in support of Taiwanese participation and warned against the politicisation of international public health. 

In related news, recent pressure by Beijing on businesses to explicitly treat Taiwan as a part of China is continuing and seen to have clear effects despite the US embassy’s call to stand firm against this kind of “Orwellian nonsense”. Associated Press has found that 20 airlines, including for example German, Canadian and British carriers now refer to Taiwan as part of China on their international websites. A very notable exception to this is currently Chinese national carrier Air China which on its US site, lists Taipei part of “Taiwan, China” but also has a Taiwan website on which it says “Taipei, Taiwan” [SCMP].

Other businesses have publicly apologised to China for referring to Taiwan as a country, including clothing retailer GAP and Zara, medical equipment maker Medtronic as well as hospitality company Marriott International. The latest retailer in the spotlight was Japanese firm “Muji” which was orderd to pay a fine using packaging in China which listed the “country of origin” as Taiwan [Reuters].

Taiwan’s international position has further been weakened by the decision of Burkina Faso to cancel its official diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, as some other former diplomatic allies of Taiwan have done recently. The move leaves Taiwan with only 18 official diplomatic allies across the world, including now only one African country (Swaziland), and it has led Taiwan’s foreign minister to take responsibility and resign from his position. [Focus Taiwan]

India, Russia in strong relations, emphasizing a ‘multipolar’ world

(ot) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ended his visit to Moscow with a cordial embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin praising both countries’ strong relations. Both leaders stressed to have “agreed on the importance of building a multipolar world order.”

Despite weakening economic ties as a result of the growing Russia-China relationship and the intensifying Indian – American ties, the sun seems to shine on Russian – Indian ties again as well. After all, India still received 62% of its imported weapons over the past five years from Russia. An indicator for the actual state of bilateral ties between India and Russia on the one hand and the US on the other will be the fate of the still unconcluded Indian purchase of five Russian S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile systems. According to US law, India would need to receive a waiver for US imposed sanctions on Russia.

After PM Modi’s recent and similar successful visit to China in late April, where Modi and Xie reaffirmed their relationship as an important element in the “balance of global power”, a Russia-India-China trilateral framework on global governance might revive. To be viewed as a result to current US foreign policy, such a development could exert significant effects on the state of world order. [CNN]

India-Indonesia relations before Modi’s visit

(ls) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin a five-day visit on Tuesday, 29 May, to Indonesia and Singapore, two of India’s strategically key partners in the region, with an aim to deepen defence ties, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. India and Indonesia are likely to sign a pact on defence cooperation as a similar agreement inked years ago had expired. In Singapore, Modi will hold bilateral talks with his Singaporean counterpart and deliver the key note address at the Shangri-la dialogue. The US, Australia and several other leading powers favor a greater role by India in the Indo-Pacific region. [Economic Times]

According to an analysis by Harsh V. Pant, the rapidly evolving regional strategic realities are forcing India and Indonesia to coordinate their policies ever more closely and after years of neglect. Jakarta has been recognizing the role that New Delhi can play in structuring a favourable balance of power in the region. Joint naval exercises and patrols, and regular port calls by their respective navies, have become a regular feature of the India-Indonesia relationship in recent years. India has also become a major source of military hardware for Jakarta. [Observer Research Foundation]

Indian warships reach Vietnam for first ever joint naval exercise

(am) Three warships of the Indian Navy, including a multi-role frigate and a corvette, have anchored at the Tien Sa Port in Vietnam to partake in the country´s first-ever bilateral naval exercise. The visit is a part of the ongoing operational deployment of the Indian Navy's Eastern Fleet ships to South East Asia and the North West Pacific region. [Sputnik International] [The Hindu]

India’s new stance on Rohingyas as a new regional diplomacy effort

(ot) India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj called for a “safe, secure, sustainable” return of the Rohingya refugees during her visit to Myanmar and reiterated India’s readiness to help Myanmar. Regarding India´s relations with Bangladesh, the new commitment is seen by some observers as a possible shift not only in India’s ties with Dakha but also concerning its reclamation of a more assertive regional role.

In any case, the Rohingya crisis turns out to be a continuous test of India’s neighborhood diplomacy. Since the crisis emerged in August 2017, India has remained comparatively silent, focusing quite rigidly on the securitization of its own borders to repel the influx of potentially radicalized Muslim fighters. Especially for Bangladesh, despite India’s provision of some humanitarian assistance, India could have contributed more and more positively to the crisis. For India, both Bangladesh and Myanmar are critical for the peace and stability of India’s own conflict-ridden northeast. [The Diplomat]

Pakistan: SCO anti-terrorism summit held in Islamabad, while President Xi calls for regional security operations

(ot) Pakistan hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) meeting after having become a member of SCO last year. Participants included legal experts from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. [Geo TV]

Meanwhile, the 13th meeting of Security Council Secretaries of the SCO member states was held in Beijing, addressed by President Xi Jinping stressing the importance of last year´s entry of both India and Pakistan as new SCO members.

In the context of a steady confluence of Asia, the recent SCO meetings reflect the potential of still nascent attempts to foster regional diplomatic arenas in a multipolar global governance order. [Economic Times]

Pakistan in need of Chinese loans?

(ot) Pakistan seems to seek Chinese state loans worth $1-2 billion USD to avert a balance of payments crisis after having taken already billion - dollar loans from China and having just received a $1 billion loan by a group of Chinese commercial banks in April. Meanwhile, China's BRI investment China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) runs up to $57 billion USD. [Economic Times]

Myanmar / Bangladesh: Repatriation struggles

(jm) Bangladesh´s Health Minister, attending the Commonwealth health ministers’ meeting, reportedly asked colleagues to put pressure on Myanmar to start repatriation of Rohingya refugees. [Bdnews24]

At the same day, Myanmar requested neighbor Bangladesh to quickly start the repatriation process as possible, even if only regarding a moderate group of altogether only 2223 persons. [Myanmar Times]

Myanmar: Chinese special envoy meets with ethnic groups over violent clashes at the border

(jm) Since an attack led by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) occurred last week at the China-Myanmar border, pushing several civilians to flee out of Myanmar, China seems to have taken a more active role.

After meeting an umbrella organization bringing together several ethnic groups, asking them not to arm themselves, and calling the Northern Alliance armed ethnic groups (which include the TNLA) to participate in the next session of the 21st Century Panglong Conference, China’s special envoy on Asian Affairs met State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and a senior Tatmadaw chief on Tuesday. The talks mostly addressed the peace-process in Myanmar and the relations between the state and the ethnic groups. [Myanmar Times 1] [Myanmar Times 2]

The third round of the 21st Century Panglong Conference that was supposed to be held by the end of month will be delayed. The event is scheduled twice a year, but the last round took place one year ago. [Eleven Myanmar]

Thailand, Australia host regional peacekeeping exercise

(am) Thailand's Supreme Commander, Gen. Thanchaiyan Srisuwan, and the Vice Chief of the Australian Defence Force, VADM Ray Griggs, presided over the opening ceremony of the Pirab - Jabiru 2018 regional peacekeeping exercise at the Royal Thai Armed Forces Strategic Study Center in Chonburi province. During the exercise, participants were tested by realistic scenario-based problems that reflect contemporary United Nations (UN) operations, including how to protect vulnerable populations, understanding peacekeepers, rights and obligations under international and domestic law, and how to maintain logistics support in austere environments. [NNT]

EU-Vietnam defense ties

(ls) Last week, Vietnam’s deputy defense minister led a high-ranking delegation for security consultations with the European Union. The trip highlights ongoing attempts by Hanoi to bolster collaboration with the EU in the defense realm. Prashanth Parameswaran argues in the Diplomat that this could be a logical step for the EU taking into account its desire to bolster its involvement in security issues in the Asia-Pacific and to boost its ties with Southeast Asian states and ASEAN as a grouping. However, he also point to lingering concerns including those related to Hanoi’s human rights record that may complicate or slow down the pace of aspects of potential collaboration on this front. [The Diplomat]

Background Reading

The Current State of Terrorism in Indonesia - Vulnerable Groups, Networks, and Responses

(am) An interesting CSIS paper aims to provide a portrayal of the current terrorism network in Indonesia after the emergence of ISIS in 2014. It assesses the characteristics of demographic pattern indicating vulnerability to radicalization, key ISIS actors, and the current state of government counter-terrorism measures. The paper highlights the importance of what is termed the saturation point, social bonds, and economic incentives as factors that pushes individuals to interact with radical organizations. It also points out key individuals and cells of pro-ISIS terrorist organizations that most effectively take advantage of these factors; including their origin and how they cooperate. The last segment of the paper also provides notes on the lacking of the current Indonesian counter-terrorism; such as the vague division of labour in the National Counter-Terrorism Agency and the anti-terrorism law that is insensitive to pressing issues of online radicalization and ex-terrorist reintegration. [CSIS]

Book review: “Blood and Silk: Power and Conflict in Modern Southeast Asia”

(ls) The Economist has reviewed Michael Vatikiotis' 2017 book “Blood and Silk: Power and Conflict in Modern Southeast Asia”. In the book, Vatikiotis analyzes the power structures which define the region and the role of monarchies and elite groups in perpetuating political uncertainty. He describes how corruption, violence and religious extremism follow in cycles of misery. At the same time, an array of interview subjects provide glimpses of humanity amid the dark landscape. [The Economist]

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