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March 23, 2021 - Brief Issue 172

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Today’s brief marks the anniversary of the launch of the Coronavirus Daily Brief. Over the past year, we have published 172 daily briefs that included approximately 750,000 words of news and analysis. We’re grateful for the support of our readers and will continue to bring you the most critical information related to the pandemic.

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Top Headlines

Largest AstraZeneca Trial Yet Finds Vaccine 79% Effective, But U.S. Officials Say Info Could Be Outdated (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Cases Increasing Across the U.S. (Health & Science)

Previously Infected People May Reach Sufficient SARS-CoV-2 Immunity After One Shot (Health & Science)

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Rollout Faces Rocky Start (Health & Science)

Republic of Congo Presidential Candidate Dies from Covid-19 (Around the World)

Germany Extends Lockdown Over Easter, Bundesbank Says Economy is Slumping (Around the World)

China’s Sinovac Says Its Vaccine Is Safe For Children (Around the World)

Biden Administration Works to Stop Outbreaks at the Southern Border Amid Lack of Testing (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fire at Japanese Chip-Making Factory Exacerbates Supply Chain Concerns (U.S. Economy)

Street Violence in Portland Disrupts Economic Recovery from Covid (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,867,516 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 542,949 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 382,222,468 tests and distributed 156,734,555 vaccine doses, with 126,509,736 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 123,716,810 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,724,305 deaths. At least 70,177,633 people have recovered from the virus.

Largest AstraZeneca Trial Yet Finds Vaccine 79% Effective, But U.S. Officials Say Info Could Be Outdated

A U.S clinical trial involving over 32,000 participants found the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to be 79% effective in preventing symptomatic infections (with higher efficacy in older adults, who have been underrepresented in previous studies) and completely effective in preventing the worst Covid-19 outcomes (NYT, WSJ, Science, AstraZeneca). These results follow an upset in Europe, where more than a dozen countries temporarily suspended use of the shot due to fears about side effects. The U.S trial may help assuage skepticism about the AstraZeneca shot in Europe and elsewhere. 

The U.S ordered 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine – which is easily transported and cheap, at only $4 a shot – last year (WaPo). Though AstraZeneca is preparing for emergency authorization from the FDA, the vaccine is unlikely to become available in the U.S before May, when the country is expected to have sufficient amounts of the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson shots to vaccinate every adult. Still, approving AstraZeneca could place the U.S in a more comfortable position – surplus doses could bolster domestic vaccine supply or be deployed to other countries. Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said it’s not yet clear how AstraZeneca would play into the Biden administration’s vaccine strategy, but the results of the U.S clinical trial are promising nonetheless. “The one thing that one can say for sure is that this is good for the world, because it’s a cheap vaccine,” he said. “They will likely be able to produce enough for a lot of different countries.”

But following the release of the results of the trial on Monday, U.S. federal health officials said that the trial may have used “outdated information” early Tuesday (AP). The Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) said in a statement that it was concerned that AstraZeneca may have provided an incomplete view on the efficacy data. The DSMB is an independent committee overseeing the trial and it has “expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data,” the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) said in a statement (Reuters). “We urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible,” it said, adding that the DSMB had informed AstraZeneca of its concerns. Those concerns could affect the drugmaker’s quest for U.S. emergency authorization in the coming weeks. 

Covid-19 Cases Increasing Across the U.S.

Covid-19 cases are rising in 21 states across the U.S. as states relax restrictions, pandemic fatigue sets in, and highly infectious coronavirus variants spread rapidly (WaPo, CNBC). Johns Hopkins’ seven-day moving average of newly reported cases plateaued for the first time on Friday after declining for weeks, and crept up by 2.6% on Sunday (WaPo). 

About 2.5 million people are being vaccinated daily, and on Monday, a slew of states expanded vaccine eligibility. But Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said vaccination efforts might not be able to keep up with climbing case numbers if the country gets too lax about coronavirus restrictions. “[The vaccine rate] could be overcome if certain areas pull back prematurely on the mitigation and public health measures that we all talk about,” Fauci said.

Previously Infected People May Reach Sufficient SARS-CoV-2 Immunity After One Shot

Data from 110 participants in an ongoing study called PARIS (Protection Associated with Rapid Immunity to SARS-CoV-2) suggests that Covid-19 survivors who receive a single mRNA vaccine dose may develop equal or higher levels of immunity than previously uninfected people who complete the entire two-dose regimen (NEJM). In a letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine, a team of researchers from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai explained that after the first dose of a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, seropositive patients – that is, people who already have some antibodies against the disease – have antibody titers 10 to 45 times as high as those of seronegative people at the same time point. After the second shot, the antibody titers of previously uninfected people increased threefold, while Covid-19 survivors did not seem to have a significant immune response. These data indicate that people with previous immunity respond quickly to mRNA vaccines, possibly developing sufficient antibodies after the first dose. But whether one dose is enough, the authors clarified, requires more investigation.

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Rollout Faces Rocky Start

Nearly three weeks after the FDA authorized Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine for emergency use, only 2.3 million out of the 4.3 million doses delivered to states have actually gone into Americans’ arms (Politico). Senior Biden administration officials have met to determine the cause of this delay. It’s believed that some states are holding back shots intentionally to ration out supplies, while other states are taking time to track down and vaccinate higher-need demographics. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, explained that states are deploying the vaccine at different rates and in different ways. “It may be a little bit slower rollout because everybody is trying to decide how to best use this particular vaccine,” he said. 

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine also faces the hurdles of limited supply and bumpy rollout. At the beginning of March, the Biden administration allocated 3.9 million doses to states; since then, the amount allocated has increased fitfully. How many of these Johnson & Johnson shots have actually shipped is unclear.

Miami Beach Imposes Curfew in Response to Spring Breakers

Police used sirens and pepper balls to break up partiers on Miami Beach’s famous Ocean Drive on Saturday, the first night the city implemented an 8 pm curfew to prevent Covid-19 spread. During a meeting the next day, city commissioners voted to extend these emergency orders for at least three weeks – the South Beach entertainment district will be subject to an 8 pm curfew until April 12 (NYT, WaPo, WSJ). Miami Beach officials said this year’s spring break period has been particularly busy, in part because the city has relatively few Covid-19 restrictions. David Richardson, a Miami Beach City Commision member, explained that Florida has marketed itself as a spring break destination. “I believe it’s a lot of pent-up demand from the pandemic and people wanting to get out,” he said. “And our state has been publicly advertised as being open, so that’s contributing to the issue.”

More than 1,000 arrests have been made on Miami Beach since February 3; over 50 were made this past weekend. Police crackdowns on revelers have drawn suspicion from the NAACP. Stephen Hunter Johnson, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Black Affairs Advisory Board, said the situation in Miami Beach mirrors larger issues. “I think when they’re young Black people [on South Beach], the response is, ‘Oh, my God, we have to do something.’ ”

Rare Reports of Covid-Related Psychosis

A small number of patients have reported psychotic symptoms weeks after recovering from even mild cases of Covid-19 (NYT). Many of these patients have no history of mental illness. Medical experts suspect this could be a side effect of inflammation, vascular issues, or immune activity resulting from the body fighting off Covid-19. There is little uniformity among patients who suffer from Covid-related psychosis; some experience violent or self-harming urges and others experience paranoia. Recovery trajectories also vary. These patients are unusual in that they tend to be middle-aged, whereas paranoia generally affects teens or older adults. Plus, psychotic patients are usually unaware of their disease, while those experiencing brain effects from Covid-19 sometimes realize there’s a problem. Seattle-based psychiatrist Dr. Veronika Zantop said many questions remain, including the duration of these psychotic symptoms: “Is this temporary? You know, how long does the risk continue?”

Bonus Read: “Audio Interview: Efficacy of Current Covid-19 Vaccines Against Variant Viruses,” (NEJM). 

Around the World

Africa

Republic of Congo Presidential Candidate Dies from Covid-19

The Republic of Congo’s main opposition presidential candidate, Guy-Brice Parfait Kolélas, died as he was being transferred to France for treatment for Covid-19, his campaign director told AFP on Monday, the day after presidential elections were held (AFP). Kolélas was trying to unseat President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power for 36 years. On Friday, Mr. Kolélas fell ill. In a video where he addressed the citizens of the Republic of Congo that he recorded on Friday, he can be seen removing an oxygen mask to say “I am fighting death,” adding, “But I ask you to stand up and vote for change.” Although few election observers expected Kolélas to win the election, his death is a blow for the country, which is experiencing an economic crisis. The country has reported 9,564 cases of coronavirus so far, but that is likely an underestimate due to a lack of testing. 

Europe

Germany Extends Lockdown Over Easter, Bundesbank Says Economy is Slumping

Chancellor Angela Merkel and state governors have agreed to extend lockdown measures and ask Germans to stay at home over the Easter holiday as cases continue to spike. “We are in a very, very serious situation,” Ms. Merkel told a news conference early Tuesday. The extension will last until April 18, and will include an even stricter over the Easter weekend, with gatherings limited to only two groups of up to five adults and all stores closed (retail stores reopened earlier this month for shopping by appointment only). Church services will be held online. Three weeks ago, Merkel and the governors agreed on a roadmap out of lockdown that depended on a decline in case rates, but now, it is clear that Germany is headed into another virus wave as there’s been a 69% increase in daily new cases. Cases have more than doubled to about 13,000 per day, up from 6,000 per day in mid-February (NYT). The variant B.1.1.7 is spreading rapidly and now accounts for nearly three-quarters of new cases, according to German health authorities. The new measures come as the German central bank said that the economy is likely to shrink sharply this quarter, hitting the services sector particularly hard and even reaching into the booming construction industry. The latest monthly report released by Bundesbank on Monday abandoned any expectations of a rebound in the spring and left out references to the vaccination campaign, which has been stalled due to delivery delays and concerns over potential side-effects (Reuters). “The measures to contain the pandemic are more stringent on average in the current quarter than in the previous one,” the Bundesbank said. “Therefore, the economic output in the first quarter of 2021 is likely to decline sharply ... particularly in the contact-intensive service sectors.” 

Amazon Workers in Italy Go on Strike Over Delivery Demands

Amazon workers in Italy went on a 24-hour strike on Monday to protest the pandemic-driven delivery demands. It is the first such action by the U.S. company’s entire logistics operation in the country. Italy’s FILT-CGIL, FIT-CISL and Uiltrasporti unions called the 24-hour strike after failing to reach common ground at two meetings in January with Amazon and the collapse of negotiations with employers association Assoespressi, which represents delivery firms (Reuters). “We’re not asking for pay rises right now, but for a more humane working schedule,” FIT-CISL Secretary Generale Salvatore Pellecchia told Reuters. Marco Odone of Uiltrasporti said protests were widespread across Amazon sites and preliminary estimates found 70% to 75% of workers did not report to their jobs, but a spokeswoman for Amazon, which has over 40 logistics centres in Italy, said fewer than 10% of its employees and around 20% of third-party workers had joined the strike.

Asia

China’s Sinovac Says Its Vaccine Is Safe For Children

Sinovac now says its Covid-19 vaccine is safe for children as young as 3 years old, based on preliminary data that has been submitted to Chinese drug regulators (AP). Early and mid-stage clinical trials that included over 550 subjects showed the vaccine would induce an immune response, Gang Zeng, the medical director at Sinovac, told reporters at a news conference. Two recipients developed high fevers in response to the vaccine, one a 3-year old and the other a 6-year-old. Others in the trial experienced only mild symptoms, said Zeng. While children are less likely to be seriously ill with Covid-19, they are still at risk and can also spread the virus to adults. Vaccination campaigns have so far focused on adults but children will also need to be vaccinated eventually. The Pfizer vaccine is cleared for use from age 16 and is currently being studied in ages 12-16. Moderna announced last week that it would study its vaccine in children younger than 12; it was already studying the efficacy and safety in children from 12-17. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Filibuster Debate Tears at Biden and Senate, With Long-Term Consequences,” (WSJ). 

Biden Administration Works to Stop Outbreaks at the Southern Border Amid Lack of Testing

The Biden administration is scrambling to prevent coronavirus outbreaks on the southern border amid a lack of tracking and testing of migrants, Politico reports (Politico). Politico writes, “The federal government does not have a centralized system for tracking or responding to Covid-19 cases among the surge of migrants crossing the United States’ southern border, according to interviews with six senior administration officials and multiple individuals tasked with responding to the influx.” Politico cites four of the officials as saying that “it’s unclear how many have been tested for the virus, how many have tested positive and where infected people are being isolated along the border.” Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, told Politico, “It is really important to have a good surveillance system. You want to be able to test and isolate and to prevent infection to others. Outsourcing testing is fine. But you need to have a way to be able to have accurate testing data in one place.” A White House spokesperson told Politico, “Our policy is to coordinate with local governments and NGOs to ensure testing for migrants is available and that steps for isolation, quarantining and medical care can be taken should it be needed.”

Federal Reserve Payments to Treasury Rise in 2020

The amount of money that the Federal Reserve sends to the Treasury rose in 2020 with the income helping offset low interest rates, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The Fed sent $86.89 billion to Treasury in 2020, up 58% from $54.89 billion in 2019, the central bank said Monday in an annual financial statement.” The funds help cover the Fed’s costs and also add to the Treasury’s general fund.

Bonus Read: “How Biden Quietly Created a Huge Social Program,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Challenge: End the Coronavirus Crisis Faster,” (NYT).

Fire at Japanese Chip-Making Factory Exacerbates Supply Chain Concerns

On Friday, a fire at a factory owned by a Renasas Electronics subsidiary in Hitachinaka, Japan has exacerbated concerns about supply chain disruptions for electronic chips used by the auto industry (WSJ). As we have covered before, the auto industry has already faced disruptions in part due to the pandemic and a shortage of semiconductors. The Journal writes, “Renesas said heat from an electrical problem inside a single piece of equipment caused the fire and contaminated clean rooms needed to make semiconductors. It said two-thirds of the chips made at the fire-affected factory were automotive chips.” 

Cruise Lines Fear Another Lost Summer

The cruise line industry fears that after a year of little activity due to the pandemic, Summer 2021 will be another lost season for the industry (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Like the rest of the maritime tourism industry, Port Canaveral was mothballed at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. One year on, as other parts of the economy blink back to life, the U.S. cruise industry is waiting anxiously for Washington’s go-ahead to sail again—and worried that a second summer season is about to be lost.” Singapore, Italy and the U.K. have either allowed or set dates that will allow cruise lines to resume service. However, the United States still is not allowing cruise lines to operate while awaiting CDC guidance. The Journal notes that “The CDC lifted its no-sail order in October and replaced it with a conditional set of rules,” but adds, “industry officials say the 40 pages of rules are either indecipherable or impractical” and leads the industry to view operating cruise lines at the moment as unprofitable.

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “In This Part of Rural Trump Country, Covid Vaccine is an Easy Sell — For Now,” (WaPo).

Street Violence in Portland Disrupts Economic Recovery from Covid

As Portland, Oregon seeks to recover from the economic impact of the pandemics, street violence is disrupting its efforts, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The violence downtown has become a persistent roadblock in Portland’s attempts to reopen and revive its economy as vaccinations spread, Covid-19 cases fall, and business restrictions are loosened. Local officials who had supported the racial justice protests last summer are now pledging to crack down on those causing the destruction.” Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler stated, “The community is sick and tired of people engaging in acts of criminal destruction and violence.” Whatever the cause, Portland’s businesses have been hit hard. The local business group Bricks Need Mortar estimates that about 25% of small businesses in the city have closed, consolidated, or are looking to relocate while 33% owe at least $15,000 in rent. Demonstrations have slowed in recent months, but the Journal notes, “part of the challenge is convincing residents and visitors that the city is safe. As in many cities, crime rates have increased. Homicides climbed 60% in Portland last year over the previous year and burglaries rose 30%.”

A School District Searches for its Missing Students

The Washington Post profiles the work of Indio High School Assistant Principal Rich Pimentel in trying to find and assist the school district’s missing students amid the pandemic (WaPo). The Post writes, “It had been a year since the pandemic closed Indio High School and its 2,100 students began to disappear, first from the hallways and then from virtual classes as attendance dropped from 94 percent down to as low as 70 percent. The school was like hundreds of others hit hardest by covid-19 — mostly low-income and mostly Latino, with a vulnerable population that had suffered disproportionately from the virus and its injustices. Half of Indio’s students lived with family members who had gotten sick. A third lacked stable housing. A quarter had begun working full time or caring for younger siblings who were also home from school. At least 350 students were regularly failing to attend class, so Pimentel had decided to spend every Wednesday driving to homes across the Coachella Valley to find missing students and offer his help.”

Bonus Read: “Amid Attacks, Asian Americans Challenge Traditions That Discourage Speaking Out, Seeking Therapy,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Sarah Zhang writes on the strange experience of relearning how to smell after Covid (Atlantic) and the Wall Street Journal reports on a chef’s adaptations to losing the ability to smell (WSJ).

Nanjala Nyabola writes that vaccine nationalism is unjust (Nation).

Heidi J. Larson writes on how to restore trust in the AstraZeneca vaccine (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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