Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 7, February/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Wishing you all a happy new lunar year, the AiR team is presenting you this week's AiR issue, the first in the year of the ox. 

Special greetings are extended to readers in Kosovo and Lithuania who Independence Day and State Reestablishment Day respectively this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de,  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: High-ranking security apparatus official expelled from CCP

(dql) The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, China’s top anti-graft authority, announced the expulsion of former Shanghai police chief Gong Daoan from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)after finding him guilty of abusing his position for appointing officials, contracting business operations and construction projects and for engaging in unlawful profit-generating activities.

After seven years at the Ministry of Public Security’s operational technology bureau, Gong in 2017 became police chief in Shanghai, one of the four municipalities of the country, directly administered by the State Council, China’s government. With a population of more than 24 million in 2019, Shanghai is China’s most populous urban area. 

Gong, who had been under investigation since August last year and is now facing trial, joins a group of high-ranking officials in China’s security apparatus caught in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, including Zhou Yongkang, the former head of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, who oversaw in this capacity the country’s security apparatus and law enforcement institutions and who was jailed for life in 2015; Meng Hongwei, ex deputy public security minister and Interpol head sentenced last year to 13-and-a-half years in jail; former Vice Public Security Minister Sun Lijun, currently under investigation over undisclosed violations of party rules; and the former police chiefs of Chongqing city and Inner Mongolia, both expelled from the CCP in recent months and currently awaiting trial. [South China Morning Post] 

In another corruption case related to Sun, an executive at Tencent, China’s most valuable publicly listed company, has been detained as part of an investigation in which stands accused of illegally providing Sun with data collected by Tencent’s social-media app WeChat. [Reuters]

China: Activist supporter jailed for three years

(dql) A Beijing Court has sentenced Geng Xiaonan, a Chinese publisher of cooking and lifestyle books, to threes in jail after it found her guilty of illegal business activities. Observers, however, believe that the sentence is a punishment for her open support for regime-critical law professor Xu Zhangrun who was arrested last year for publishing an article calling for China's leaders to be held politically accountable, the release of prisoners of conscience, an end to harassment against academics. [The Guardian] [AiR No. 27, July/2020, 1]

China/Hong Kong: Vocal regime critics denied bail

(dql) Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appel, the city’s top court, denied bail to Jimmy Lai, owner of the Beijing-critical tabloid Apple Daily and one of the most high-profile persons charged under a national security law. Among other charges, Lai is accused of endangering national security by having used Twitter and his tabloid to call on foreign governments to impose sanctions against Hong Kong and mainland Chinese officials for their involvement in implementing the national security law. He has been detained in early December last year and again on December 31 after a period of about a week on bail after the first arrest. [Hong Free Press]

In another case, bail was also denied to Wan Yiu-sing, an outspoken online radio show host who was arrested earlier this month on suspicion of "seditious intent," voiced in comments he made during his online radio shows from August to October last year. [Radio Free Asia]

Meanwhile, 52 out of the 55 opposition activists, who were arrested in January on suspicion of subversion in the thus far biggest crackdown under the national security law had their bail extended until April. Remaining in custody in connection with other charges are founder of the now disbanded pro-democracy political party Demosisto Joshua Wong, former Democratic Party chairman Wu Chi-wai, and Tam Tak-chi of People Party, the city’s radical democratic party. [South China Morning Post]

These bail decisions come amid rumors that cases falling under the national security will be decided by a jury, after Hong Kong’s Justice Ministry announced that the first case under national security law – a man charged with terrorism and inciting secession – will be decided by three appointed judges. This change would mark a breach with a tradition of 176 years of juridical practice under the city’s common law system. [Channel News Asia]

Japan: Sharp rise in suicides among young students

(dql) At an expert meeting this week, Japan’s Ministry of Education released data of the Ministry of Health according to which a total of 479 elementary, junior high and high school students committed suicide in 2020, marking a sharp increase compared with 2019 with 339. 

The Ministry cited as key reasons anxiety about the future, weak performance in school and bad relationships with parents. It also annunced to conduct a detailed analysis to clarify whether the pandemic has had an impact on the rise of the number. [Japan Times]

Japan: Political heavyweight resigns over sexist remarks

(dql) Protesting against sexists remarks of Japan’s former Prime Minister and chief of the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee Yoshiro Mori opposition female lawmakers attended a parliamentary session last week in white jackets, while their male counterparts sported white rose in solidarity. During an online gathering of the Committee last week Mori said that meetings with women "drag on" as they talk too much due to their "strong sense of rivalry." 

The action was reminiscent of a group of US lawmakers wearing white in support of women’s issues during former US President Donald Trump’s 2019 and 2020 State of the Union addresses.  

The statement of Mori – a onetime leader of the biggest fraction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party – triggered widespread criticism among athletes, volunteers, sponsors, media and the public, eventually leading to his resignation as head of the Committee only a week after he assumed this post. [Japan Times] [Reuters]

South Korea: Bills on reducing use of plastic and disposable items 

(dql) South Korea’s Ministry of Environment announced revisions of the country’s environmental laws aimed at limiting the use of plastic and other disposal items. Inter alia, the revisions forbid using paper cups, plastic straws and stirrers inside cafes and eateries, and ban plastic bags from retailers and bakeries and prohibits. They also include new regulations on packaging requiring manufacturers to produce easily recyclable wrapping material in compliance with a set thickness, color and weight ratio. [Korea Herald]

In an earlier development, the Economic Promotion and Safety Control of Hydrogen Act – the word’s first hydrogen law – came into effect on February 5. Under the law South Korea aims to set up a total of 500 and 1,000 hydrogen-specialized companies by 2030 and 2040, respectively, to gear up the country’s green hydrogen production and supply systems. [Business Korea]

South Korea: Resignation of Supreme Court Chief Justice demanded

(dql) South Korea’s main opposition People Power Party (PPP) has demanded the resignation of the country’s Supreme Court Chief Justice Kim Meong-su, adding that the party would file a criminal complaint in case Kim refuses to meet the demand. 

Kim has been facing mounting pressure over the past weeks after media reports revealed that he lied when he denied out of political reasons that a Supreme Court judge in May last year offered his resignation who at that time was facing a looming impeachment motion over charges of interfering in a number of politically controversial trials in 2015 and 2016 when he was serving at a District Court.

The judge was eventually impeached by the parliament last week. It was the first impeachment of a sitting judge in the country’s modern history. [Korea Herald] [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

North Korea least Democratic Country in the World

(nd) In the semi-annual Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which studies the state of democracy in 165 independent states and two territories, North Korea was ranked last. Criteria scrutinized include “Electoral process and pluralism,” "Functioning of government,” “Political Culture,” “Political Participation,” and “Civil Liberties.”

More than 70% of the countries have seen a decrease in their democracy score compared to last year, with just under the half the world’s population living in “a democracy of some sort.” 8.4% of the world’s population lives in full democracies, 41% in flawed democracies, 35.6% in “authoritarian regimes.”  15% live in “hybrid regimes” The average global score in the 2020 Democracy Index fell to 5.37, from 5.44 in 2019, marking the lowest score since the index was launched in 2006. As factor the bad result the index cited government-imposed restrictions on individual freedoms and civil liberties due to the coronavirus pandemic. [National Interest]

Taiwan: KMT collects over half a million signatures for a national referendum against government’s new pork import policy

(dql) Pressure on President Tsai Ing-wen over her lift of imports of US pork containing ractopamine residue is increasing after the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) collected over 500.000 signatures in support of the party’s proposals to hold national referendums which would ask voters whether they agree that the government should impose a complete ban on imports of meat, offal and related products from pigs fed with ractopamine. The next possible date for such a referendum would be August 28 this year. 

To pave the way for a long desired free trade agreement with the US, Tsai agreed in August last year to lift the ban on pork with ractopamine which took effect January 1. [Taipei Times]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Investigative report exposes close relationship between crime family and prime minister

(lm) Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff (CAS) General Aziz Ahmed is the pivotal figure of a disturbing investigation by Qatar-based news channel Al Jazeera. A two-year investigation, “All the Prime Minister’s Men” reveals how his family has all the tools of the state at its disposal, including the commuting of sentences, obtaining false documents and the arrest of political opponents, all the while maintaining powerful links with the country’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

To begin with, leaked documents obtained by Al Jazeera show how General Aziz is using his position to protect his four brothers, two of whom are wanted for their involvement in the 1996 murder of a member of a rival political party of the ruling Awami League. Following that murder, the two men had fled abroad to escape law enforcement, with General Aziz using military officers to help one of his brothers creating a false identity, which was then used to set up businesses in Europe and buy properties around the world. [Al Jazeera Investigations 1]

Furthermore, the investigation revealed that the Bangladeshi government had secretly bought highly invasive surveillance equipment from Israel – a country that Bangladesh officially does not recognize – with one of the brothers wanted by law enforcement serving as a key figure in the procurement. The contract for the acquisition of spyware was signed one day after General Aziz Ahmed became head of the Bangladesh Army. [Al Jazeera Investigations 2]

The Bangladesh military reacted to the evidence by saying that the equipment was for an “army contingent due to be deployed in the UN peacekeeping mission.” The UN on February 4, however, denied that it was deploying such equipment with Bangladeshi contingents in UN peacekeeping operations. [YouTube]

Bangladesh: Authorities to move more Rohingya to remote island, despite outcry

(lm) Authorities in Bangladesh have sent another 3,000 to 4,000 Rohingya refugees to a remote island in the Bay of Bengal, ignoring ongoing complaints by rights groups concerned about the low-lying island’s vulnerability to cyclones and floods. [The Straits Times] [Anadolu Agency]

Since early December, authorities had already relocated about 7,000 Rohingya to Bhasan Char, an island specifically developed to accommodate 100,000 of the 1 million Rohingya [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. Bangladesh justifies the move saying it would ease chronic overcrowding in sprawling refugee camps of Cox’s Bazar [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2]. The government also routinely dismisses concerns of floods, citing the construction of a 2m embankment to prevent flooding along with facilities such as cyclone centers and hospitals [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2].

Earlier this month a long-awaited meeting of a working committee on the Rohingya repatriation between Bangladesh and Myanmar had been adjourned indefinitely, after the military overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government and declared a year-long state of emergency [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Bangladesh: Gallantry award of former President and BNP founder Ziaur Rahman revoked

(lm) The National Freedom Fighter Council [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2] decided on February 9 to revoke a gallantry title awarded to Ziaur Rahman, founder of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and former President of Bangladesh. The decision, however, has not yet been implemented; it depends on the Ministry of Liberation War Affairs, which may decide to send the proposal to the Cabinet for final approval.

Originally an officer of the Bangladesh Army, Ziaur Rahman quickly ascended to leadership in the months following the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur, the founding president of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Rahman, who was killed in a military coup in 1981, was the husband of Khaleda Zia, an arch-rival of Prime Minister Hasina’s who served two periods as prime minister and is currently on conditional release from jail in two corruption cases [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].

The awards had been conferred to Rahman for his contributions to the War of Liberation that transformed East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971. The reasons behind the decision against him have been cited as involvement in the plot for assassinating Sheikh Mujibur, as well as aiding and abetting the group of army officials involved in the killing by appointing them to important government posts during his presidency (1977-81), among others. However, the charges pertaining to the murder of Sheikh Mujibur have not been tried in any court. [Dhaka Tribune 1]

Protesting the decision, members of the BNP questioned the motive behind the decision, suggesting it had been made for “political vengeance”. They also said the National Freedom Fighters Council did not have the authority to revoke the gallantry title, considering that the body was formed to look after the welfare of members of the Freedom Fighters – the so-called Mukti Bahini – who fought for Bangladesh during the War of Liberation. [Dhaka Tribune 2] [United News of Bangladesh]

Bangladesh: Islamist to hang over publisher’s murder

(lm) A special tribunal has sentenced to death eight Islamist militants, two of whom are at large, in the 2015 killing of a publisher of books on secularism and atheism. The attack was part of a wave of violence between 2013 and 2016 targeting secular activists, bloggers and atheist writers. [The Straits Times] [Al Jazeera]

The verdict comes at a time when Bangladesh is witnessing a surge in Islamist activism and violence, all the while the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (AL) – a traditionally secular, center-left party – continues to grapple with its relations to Hefazat-e-Islam, the biggest Islamic group in the country.

A tightly-knit coalition of a dozen or so Islamist organization, Hefazat-e-Islam burst onto the scene in 2010, ostensibly to defend Islam from AL’s allegedly anti-Islamic policies, especially a proposed policy to confer equal inheritance rights to women. The group then shot to prominence in 2013, staging mass protests and sit-ins in Dhaka with a 13-point charter of demands which included implementing the death penalty for blaspheming Islam or the prophet. [The Jamestown Foundation]

Importantly, the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina facilitated Hefazat-e-Islam’s rise, as it decided to offer ideological concessions in order to deter unrest. Moreover, the AL government considered the group a useful Islamist ally to counter its political rival, the Islamist-friendly Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Consequently, in the years between 2013 to 2016, when secular bloggers were killed by militant groups, the government resorted to blaming the victims for their offensive writings. A case in point, authorities in 2017 responded to Hefazat-e-Islam’s demand by removing 17 popular poems and stories by non-Muslim writers as the group accused such writings of promoting secularism. [Prothom Alo]

Understandably, the religious groups considered such appeasement policies as empowering, and have since continued to push their agendas to further Islamize the society and public sphere. In October and November last year, for example, Hefazat-e-Islam organized a series of mass-protests in Dhaka to protest against French President Emanuel Macron’s defense of free speech laws that allow cartoon depictions of the Prophet Mohammed [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Weeks later, the group started an agitation against the construction of a sculpture of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding president of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. Islamist groups deem such statues to be anti-Islamic, often associating them with idol worship – a strictly forbidden practice in Islam.

India: Prime Minister Modi reaches out to protesting farmers, says new laws are “optional”

(lm) While addressing the lower house of India’s Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 10 defended afresh the three contentious agricultural laws, saying that the country’s agricultural sector needed reform to attract private investment that would help modernize the food supply-chain and improve infrastructure. Further, the prime minister stressed the need to switch to profitable crops such as fruit and horticulture, urging Indian farmers to look beyond growing rice and wheat. [The Straits Times]

In an attempt to pour oil on troubled waters, in his address to Parliament the prime minister termed the ongoing demonstrations a “pavitra aandolan” [pious movement], only to hit out at “andolan jeevis” [people that live through agitations], who he accused of maligning the protests. [Republic World]

Shortly after Prime Minister Modi’s speech, the Samyukt Kisan Morcha [Joint Farmers Front], an umbrella body of unions leading the protests, said farmers were still protesting because the government had failed to present an “alternative” to the legislation, despite 11 rounds of talks. Last week, tens of thousands of protesting farmers held a three-hour blockade of state and national highways, indicating growing support for protesters’ demand to have the legislation fully repealed [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. [Hindustan Times]

India: Twitter yields, blocks access to hundreds of Indian accounts

(lm) Social networking service Twitter has permanently suspended more than 500 accounts that had been flagged by India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY), acceding to the government’s order to restrain the spread of misinformation and inflammatory content related to the farmers' protest. The company also restricted availability of several other accounts to outside the country and restricted the visibility of certain hashtags containing harmful content. [The Straits Times]

Drawing a line in the sand, Twitter has not, however, taken any action on accounts of “news media entities, journalists, activists or politicians”, reiterating its policy to prioritize providing free expression. Further, the company said it would be “actively exploring options under Indian law" both for its own practices as well as for the impacted accounts. [Twitter Safety] [CNN]

Previously, the company had briefly suspended many of those accounts at the government's behest but unilaterally unblocked them a few hours later after a public outcry, citing “insufficient justification” to uphold the suspensions. Shortly thereafter, Twitter was hit with a non-compliance notice by the MEITY that threatened the company’s employees with “legal consequences” [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

While Twitter and the Indian government remain at an impasse, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its supporters have begun actively promoting Koo, an Indian microblogging site, as a patriotic alternative to Twitter. But what is more, police forces in the Indian states of Uttarakhand and Bihar have warned citizens that criticizing the government on social media or participating in protests could disqualify them from government jobs, bank loans and even obtaining passports. [Financial Times] [South China Morning Post]

India: Human Rights Watch demands investigation into alleged border force killings

(lm) Human Rights Watch (HRW) has made a fresh call for Indian authorities to investigate and prosecute newly alleged law violations by the Border Security Force (BSF), India’s paramilitary unit guarding borders with Pakistan and Bangladesh. [Human Rights Watch]

Ten years ago, the Indian government announced that it would order the BSF to use restraint against irregular border-crossers, following the release of an HRW report which accused New Delhi of turning the border into “South Asia’s killing fields.” However, Indian and Bangladeshi nongovernmental organizations have since reported that the BSF is continuing to commit abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and ill-treatment of both Indian and Bangladeshi border residents. [Anadolu Agency] [Union of Catholic Asian News]

Nepal: Hundreds protest in Kathmandu against government’s apathy towards violence against women

(lm) The government of Prime Minister KP Oli, already cornered after the split within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), appears now to have antagonized the public further with a proposal on travel restrictions for women, and inaction on rape cases.

On February 12, hundreds of Nepalis staged a mock funeral procession in the capital Kathmandu after the rape and murder of a teenage girl drew attention to a rise in sexual assault cases. More than 2,200 rape cases were reported in Nepal last year, according to the police, up from fewer than 1,000 in 2015. Campaigners, however, say the statistics only captures a small fracture of the true number of cases of sexual violence against women, as many victims are reluctant to report sexual assaults to the police. [South China Morning Post]

The protests also took place against the backdrop of a recent proposal by the Department of Immigration that women under the age of 40 to have permission from the male members of their families and local governments – among other requirements – to travel abroad. [Human Rights Watch]

The government issued a press release after widespread condemnation on social media, clarifying that the provision of women needing permission was only applicable to those travelling alone for the first time to the Gulf or Africa. But that did not satisfy protestors, who said the government had only ‘backtracked’ in the face of opposition, adding that the new proposal, in addition to rules already in place, would discriminate based on gender and age. [Nepali Times]

Nepal: Leader of rivalling faction of ruling Communist Party briefly arrested

(lm) A leader of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was released five hours after she had been arrested for derogatory remarks against President Bidhya Devi Bhandari. The woman said she was targeted for raising her voice against the allegedly unconstitutional move of President Bhandari and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolving the lower house of parliament. If found guilty for the crime against the state, a person is liable to a maximum of seven years of jail or $600 fine or both. [The Himalayan Times]

Nepal: Rivals of Prime Minister Oli hold rally in Kathmandu

(lm) Factional leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal,on February 9 asked their supporters to gather in the capital Kathmandu valley for a scheduled rally the following day. What is more, Dahal also said the faction might boycott the snap elections proposed for April and May, saying the "undemocratic and unconstitutional" elections were not acceptable. [South Asia Monitor 1] [South Asia Monitor 2]

Nepal last December plunged into a political crisis after Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli dissolved the country’s lower house of parliament and proposed to hold snap elections on April 30 and May 10 this year, more than a year earlier than the expected vote in November 2022. The decision to dissolve parliament’s lower house has been challenged at the Supreme Court; its hearing is still ongoing [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

In the wake of Prime Minister Oli’s controversial move, which emerged from a prolonged tussle for power between him and his rival Dahal [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4], the NCP witnessed a de facto split. Since then, the two factions have descended on streets, with both factions staking claim on the NCP, which was born out of a post-election merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)]. A petition to formally acknowledge the split is still pending in the Election Commission [see AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4].

Last week, the Dahal-Nepal faction had called for a nationwide general strike in Nepal. During the strike, incidents of violence and arson were also reported. In an effort to discredit the strike, Prime Minister Oli announced compensation for those who suffered losses, during his last rally in Kathmandu on February 5. [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

Pakistan: Supreme Court judgement bans executions of prisoners with mental disabilities

(lm) In a landmark ruling, Pakistan’s Supreme Court (SC) commuted on February 10 the death sentences of two mentally ill prisoners, who have spent decades on death row, and sent them to health facilities. The court also directed the prison officials to file a fresh mercy petition for a third prisoner. The ruling reverses a 2016 decision in which the court had observed that schizophrenia was “not a permanent mental disorder.” [Deutsche Welle] [Amnesty International]

Pakistan in 2008 ratified the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) under which the government is obligated to ensure effective access to justice for people with psychosocial disabilities. This includes providing adequate health care, support, and procedural adjustments to enable people with disabilities to participate in the judicial process. [United Nations]

Last year, following a the steep rise in COVID-19 cases in Pakistan's crowded jails, the SC agreed to release some mentally ill and disabled prisoners to ease conditions, but only those whose sentences were less than three years.

Pakistan: Government employees clash with police in Islamabad

(lm) The Pakistani government approved a raise in salaries of federal employees on February 11, a day after the capital, Islamabad, saw demonstrations turn violent as protesters clashed with police throughout the day and officers resorted to heavy tear gas shelling to disperse the crowd. At least one police officer lost his life and dozens of employees were arrested when the crowd attempted to enter the capital city's highly restricted ‘red zone’, which houses parliament, the prime minister’s office, and most foreign embassies. [Geo News] [Dawn]

The federal employees are demanding a 40 percent pay raise, which they said the government has been delaying for long. After successful negotiations with representatives of employees, the government announced a 25 percent increase in the salaries of federal employees from grade 1 to 19 which has been approved on an “ad-hoc basis”. Further, the government decided to release all the arrested protestors and apologized to the employees for the use of force by capital police, saying that “it should not have happened”. [Gulf News]

Sri Lanka: Government allows burial of COVID-19 victims

(lm) Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahindra Rajapaksa said on February 10 authorities would begin giving permission for Muslims who die of COVID-19 to be buried. Last April, Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka had amended its rules on burials and cremations, making cremations of COVID-19 victims mandatory [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. [Al Jazeera] [Anadolu Agency]

Human and religious rights groups, as well as local Muslim associations had since resented the policy, saying authorities used it to purposely hurt the country’s religious minorities. Non-governmental organizations and minority groups in Sri Lanka had filed petitions with the Supreme Court, citing the right to bury according to rituals as a fundamental right. However, the court dismissed all such petitions [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

Timing and context are noteworthy: While the UN Human Rights Council (UN HRC) is gearing up to launch its 46thsession virtually on February 22 [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2], the bloc of countries known as the Core Group on Sri Lanka has confirmed that it will present a resolution on promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka [see articles in this edition].

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Illegal workers unable to register, facing deportation

(nd) Cambodian labor rights groups have urged the government to support Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand. Thailand harbors more than 400,000 illegal immigrant workers. In an effort to curb the spread of Covid-19, Thailand has introduced a registration system for workers to obtain a pink card, which so far 120,000 have applied for. The deadline ran out on February 14, now many face deportation or imprisonment. The registration process is rather complicated and costly (around 10,000 baht, U.S. $300), and scammers made it worse for the workers. The rights groups have therefore called for an extension of the deadline. [Benar News]

Cambodia: Logging protesters released

(nd) Following their arrest last week, five environmental activists were released last Monday. They were protesting against illegal logging inside the Prey Lang Wildlife Sanctuary, one of Cambodia’s largest wildlife sanctuaries. One of the protesters was Ouch Leng, who received the 2016 Goldman Environmental Prize. As a condition of release, the five had to sign an agreement stating they would not enter restricted areas without permission again. Parallelly, a complaint was filed against Ouch Leng’s Cambodian Human Rights Task Force, which allegedly is not registered with the Interior Ministry. [Cambodia Daily]

Indonesia: Preacher dies in police custody

(nd) A 28-year-old Islamic preacher died in police custody after refusing to be hospitalized for an illness. He was treated at a police hospital and not, as requested by his family, in an Islamic hospital. There was no autopsy. The National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) announced to inquire into his death. According to KontraS, a human rights group, at least nine detainees in the past three months have died in detention due to mistreatment, illness, suicide and fighting among inmates. They blame it on overeager policemen and a lack of transparency and accountability.

The preacher was arrested for a Tweet ridiculing the head gear of an Islamic cleric and member of the presidential advisory council, violating the Electronic Information and Transactions (ITE) Law. He has been provocative on social media before, criticizing President Joko Widodo in 2017 for dissolving Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI), the local branch of an international group seeking to establish an Islamic caliphate, and defending hardline cleric Muhammad Rizieq Shihab. Shihab’s Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) was dissolved late last year and he is awaiting trial for Covid-19 regulation violations. These events raised accusations the government is acting increasingly hostile against Muslims.

Additionally, Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation commented that freedom of speech and assembly were being attacked recently by enforcing the electronic information act (EIA) on social media postings.  According to the Association for Freedom of Expression in Southeast Asia (SAFEnet), the conviction rate of EIA 96.8%, and an imprisonment rate of 88%. Arguably, this was due to the articles of EIA ignoring the principle of ultimum remedium punishment, meaning prosecution as a last resort. [Benar News]

Indonesia: Possibilities of the sovereign wealth fund

(nd) Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), Lembaga Pengelola Investasi (Investment Management Authority, or LPI), which is expected to be launched in the next weeks, will be different from usual SWFs. It does not rely on commodity export earnings or balance-of-payments surpluses, but will be based on the government initial funding of US$1 billion, subsequently US$5 billion. The LPI will have the stimulus of national development as primary goal. As such, the LPI could buy infrastructure assets from debt-ridden SOEs. Many foreign investors have already expressed interest, including the US, Japan and the United Arab Emirates, envisioning a volume of US$16 billion.

President Joko Widodo’s big interest is building Indonesia’s infrastructure. To facilitate that, the government has mobilized state owned enterprises in all relevant industries, which enabled SOEs to grown fast. Since 2014, their assets almost doubled to US$630 billion, or 56 per cent of GDP in 2019. Capital therefore was used from state budget, with the financing also organized by SOEs, expanding their leverage.

Although there is still concern over corruption similar to Malaysia’s 1MDB, there will be significant control by big, foreign investors demanding transparency and a good governance set-up. Still, the state sector is struggling with corruption and nepotism.State enterprises such as insurer Jiwasraya and pension fund Asabri saw major fraud cases. Adding to that is the development of a politico-business network around Minister of State-owned Enterprises Erick Thohir. To counter-balance that, the roles of civil society organizations, the media and academia will have to be strengthened, [East Asia Forum]

Indonesia: CEO appointed to sovereign wealth fund

(nd) As Chief Executive of Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund, the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), President Joko Widodo appointed US-educated senior banker, Ridha D.M. Wirakusumah. The fund is targeted to be managing US$20 billion (RM81 billion) to finance infrastructure projects in the near future. Last week, other seniored professionals were appointed for the fund’s board of directors. In an effort to avoid the fate of Malaysia’s 1MDB fund, the recent appointments shall create trust among investors. Several countries have already expressed interest. Skepticism was sparked by the fact that investors will contribute the major share to the investment, and Indonesia did not ensure legal certainty with regards to the government of the fund yet. [Malaymail] [See also AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

Laos: Elections for National Assembly and Provincial Council Seats starts soon  

(py) Representatives for the National Assembly will be elected February 21. The election is every five years. Out of 224 candidates, 49 are women. 4.3 million electorates across Laos will vote for 164 MPs. Additionally, 789 candidates, including 227 women, are now standing for election to the Provincial People’s Councils. [Laotian Times]

Malaysian deported from Singapore over terrorist charges

(py) A Malaysian man was arrested in Singapore under the Internal Security Act (ISA) in July 2020 after investigations revealed that he was a supporter of the terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Though he was repatriated to Malaysia in August 2020, it remains unclear why the Singaporean authority has just announced his expulsion this week. As of now, he is accused of possessing items related to terrorist acts, and the intention to travel to Syria to fight for ISIS. His Singaporean wife was also radicalized after her marriage and is currently receiving religious counseling. [Benar News]

Late last year, Singapore announced the deportation of another Malaysian national following his radicalization, who was cleared by Malay police upon return. The threat posed by terrorism is decreasing in Malaysia. While last year, Malaysia had arrested seven individuals and successfully charged four, in 2019 72 IS-linked suspects were arrested, and 119 in 2018. Still, security analysts highlighted that amid the pandemic, ISIS was stepping up recruitment in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Malaysia: Muhyiddin to launch National Unity Policy

(nd) Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin launched the National Unity Policy, a 10-year blueprint to unite the multiethnic and -religious nation. He states his goal for the country to become more inclusive, tolerant and also “patriotic”, and therefore shaped out three key objectives and urged all members of society to support the plan. The first is national integration based on constitutional values, the second is forming a “national identity” shaped by “patriotism, compassion, tolerance, respect and collective responsibility”, and the third is valuing and practicing unity.

National integration has been a key objective for various administrations, since the May 13 riots in 1969, an incident of Sino-Malay lethal violence in the aftermath of the general election, that lead to a two-year state of emergency and the implementation of New Economic Policy, favoring ethnic Malay over other races.

Muhyiddin himself is a controversial figure, facing challenges from all political sides since taking office March last year. His latest move to convince the Agong to declare the Emergency rule has been labeled by critics as an intention to avoid a parliamentary vote to possibly oust him. [Malaymail]

Myanmar: Second week of consecutive protests, crackdown intensifying

(nd) The protest against the military coup have been ongoing for eleven consecutive days. Last Tuesday night, martial law was installed, with protesters continuing to defy a ban to gather. It also saw the first use of lethal force, with three protesters hospitalized with gunshot wounds. A 19-year-old protester was shot in the head in the capital of Naypyitaw and declared braindead. The United Nations special rapporteur condemned the violence. [Myanmar Now] Headquarters of the National League for Democracy (NLD) were raided by the police at night. Elected lawmakers of NLD self-declared a Parliament and appointed detained Aung San Suu Kyi as State Counselor through 2025. [Irrawaddy 1] Her detention was extended at least until February 17. The Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a charity founded by Suu Kyi, is being investigated by the military regime, hinting at an effort to file more charges against her. The foundation, named after Suu Kyi’s mother, was established in 2012 to strengthen health, education and living standards, especially in the less developed parts of Myanmar. [Irrawaddy 5]

Meanwhile, NLD has increased support for the growing civil disobedience movement (CDM), promising to help any worker fired for opposing the coup, which was joined by more government employees from various ministries. In the eastern state of Kayah, about 40 policemen joined the protesters. The protests have reached to all the ethnic dominated states. The military regime urged medical staff and state employees to go back to work and threatened with consequences. [BBC 1] [Frontier Myanmar 1] [Frontier Myanmar 2] [Irrawaddy 2] [Irrawaddy 3] [Reuters] On Monday, many followed a call by protest leaders to withdraw cash from military-owned Myawaddy Bank, in an effort to boycott the military’s economic operations. Maximum withdraw amounts were limited and banks closed early, citing Covid-19 restrictions. [Irrawaddy 4]

Staff from the Ministry of Information and state-owned media joined the CDM, prompting protesters to start targeting state media for “broadcasting misinformation.” Reportedly, journalists were harassed or injured while reporting, with one journalist detained. Access to the internet is still disrupted. Meanwhile, Facebook announced to reduce the availability of content and profiles run by the military for they have “continued to spread misinformation” after the coup on February 1. [Voice of America 2] [Rappler]

On Wednesday, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha reportedly received a letter from Myanmar’s junta leader asking for help to support democracy. Prayut himself seized power in a coup, overthrowing an elected prime minister in 2014 and facing the severest protests in decades and calls to resign. The Thai and Burmese armies worked closely together for decades. [Bangkok Post]

Last week, the military regime reportedly sent a letter to the Bangladeshi government, mentioning a solution to solve the fate of the Rohingya refugees currently located in Bangladesh. Military commanders have visited Rohingya camps close to the border with Bangladesh and close to Sittwe. Due to overcrowded camps near Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh started to transport Rohingyas to Bhasan Char, an isolated island in the Bay of Bengal, which was criticized internationally. Reportedly, the message conveyed by the military visitors was that Sun Kyi was to blame for the crimes against Rohingyas in 2017. [Asia Times]

Due to the spread of a rumor, China was assisting the military regime in blocking access to media by sending IT experts, thousands of people last week protested outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon. China Enterprises Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar stated the aircraft was carrying goods such as seafood. Anger against China and protests in front of its embassy still increased with China continuing to label the coup an internal affair, fueling existing anti-Chinese sentiment. [Irrawaddy 6]

Meanwhile, a Cyber Security Law draft was released, which requires providers to store user data and provide it to the government upon request. With the internet blockade now being almost permanent, millions of protesters are using offline messaging app Bridgefy. Last week, US President Joe Biden announced sanctions against the coup leaders. The US would strictly control exports and freeze US assets of the military while maintaining support to civil society groups. The efficacy of such sanctions is debated since most leading figures are already facing US sanctions due to the brutal crackdown on Rohingyas in 2017. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Frontier Myanmar 3]

On Friday, which was Union Day, the military regime remitted sentences of and released 23,000 prisoners. Mass pardons are common to happen on national holidays to relieve overcrowded prisons. Union Day marks the signature of an agreement between Aung San, Suu Kyi’s father, and the Shan, Kachin and Chin people to unify the republic in 1947. Allegedly, among the released are thugs to intimidate and threaten protesters, a known tactic from years of military rule. Clashes between protesters and police grew more violent, with three protesters shot by rubber bullets. [BBC 2] 

Military vehicles were deployed into major cities on Monday. That same day, members of the Union Election Commission (UEC) were systematically detained on both state and local level, reportedly pressured them to back the army’s yet unsubstantiated voting fraud claims. [Radio Free Asia 2] At a protest site on Sunday at a power plant in Kachin, video footage shows the military firing into crowds to disperse them. It was unclear if rubber bullets or live ammunition was used. [Voice of America 1]

Over the weekend, the military regime suspended a law that made a court approval mandatory for detention or search of private property. Also, well-known backers of mass protests were arrested, such as Min Ko Naing, a leading pro-democracy activist since 1988. On Friday, The UN human rights office stated more than 350 people have been arrested in since the coup. In addition to late-night-arrests, the regime reinstated a law requiring people to report overnight visitors.  [South China Morning Post] [Nikkei Asia] Additionally, various sections of the Penal Code were amended, including provisions against spreading “false news”, hindering government employees from working, and broadening a clause about “bring[ing…] hatred or contempt” or “excite disaffection” toward the government, to now also include the Myanmar military. Prison sentences can reach up to 20 years. According to critics, the amendments clearly aim at legalizing a crackdown on protesters. [The Diplomat]

The military calls the coup justified due to an alleged widespread voter fraud in general elections on November 8, which the NLD won with an overwhelming majority.

Thailand: Activists denied bail

(nd) Four pro-democracy activists, Parit Chiwarak, Arnon Nampa, Somyot Pruksakasemsuk and Patiwat Saraiyaem, were denied bail on charges under Section 112 of the Criminal Code. The infamous laws have not been used for two consecutive years but were reinvoked last year in a crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. The movement demands reforms to the monarchy, the resignation of prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, and a constitutional reform. Section 112 criminalizes insults to monarchy and carries a prison sentence of up to 15 years. According to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, at least 55 activists have been charged under the lese majeste laws, with the four activists being the first to actually be tried. Additionally, it is the first time for a defendant to be held on these charges for such a long time without being granted bail. The trials are expected to start next month. [Voice of America] In support of the protest leaders, protesters took to the streets and banged pots and pans, a move taken from protesters in Myanmar, who in turn used the three finger salute. [Benar News] According to protesters, police used tear gas against protesters. [Khaosod English] The detained activists received support from four academic from Thammasat University and  Chulalongkorn University, claiming to represent 255 lecturers at 31 education establishments, calling for their release. [Bangkok Post]

In a potentially groundbreaking move, 44 lawmakers of political opposition Move Forward Party submitted a proposal to amend the lese majeste law. The petitioners argue that “honest criticism of the monarchy” shall be allowed in order to ensure freedom of expression, and the laws shall not be used as a political weapon. Also, only the Royal Household Bureau, and not private citizens, shall be allowed to file lese majeste complaints. The amendment needs a majority vote in the military-appointed Senate and the elected lower house, which also features a majority for the army-backed coalition after the disputed 2019 elections. A rival proposal to stop such amendments was submitted by royalist party Thai Pakdee, signed by more than 100,000 people. More than 58 activists are currently being charged under lese majeste laws. [Chiangrai Times]

Thailand: Pro-democracy protests resumed

(nd) On Saturday, pro-democracy protest resumed to the streets, covering the Bangkok democracy monument in red cloth and calling for the lese majeste laws to be abolished. Due to a spike in Covid-19 numbers before Christmas, the protest’s momentum slowed down. The bail-less detention of four co-leaders refueled the movement. In the evening, they marched to the Royal Palace, awaited by barricades, barb wires and riot police, who then clashed with protesters. Tear gas cans were found although police denied its usage. Eight were detained, on multiple charges, including defiance of the emergency decree, and 20 wounded. Additionally, the police got under attack for the alleged attacking and beating of a volunteer medic, a video of which trended on Twitter under the hashtag #policebeatingmedic. The protest will be resumed next Saturday.

The pro-democracy movement began in July 2020, with protesters calling for a constitutional and monarchy reform and the resignation of prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. Once a fierce taboo, protesters are also demanding abolition of the royal defamation law. [Voice of America] [Bangkok Post]

Vietnam: Police say prisoner died after fall, revising earlier suicide claim

(lm) Police in Vietnam said on February 11 that a prisoner who died in their custody last month had been severely injured after he fell, contradicting their earlier claim that he had committed suicide. [Radio Free Asia]

The prisoner, who had been detained since last November on charges of disrupting public order, fell and hit his head while resisting prison escorts at a detention camp in Ho Chi Minh City, according to a representative of the camp.

However, in a report published in January, the mother of the prisoner said she received notice from the police on that her son had taken his own life and requested her to receive his body. Upon retrieval from the city’s forensic center, the mother said she found many bruises on her son’s body. Thus, she decided to petition the city’s supreme people’s procuracy, the people’s procuracy, and the director of the police to investigate her son’s death. [Tuổi Trẻ, in Vietnamese]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US relations: Biden/Xi phone talk amid plans for US DoD China Task Force and tensions over results of WHO coronavirus investigation

(dql) US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked red lines in future US-Sino bilateral relations in their first talk three weeks after the former assumed office.

Biden expressed “fundamental concerns” over Beijing’s “coercive and unfair economic practices,” as well as over the “crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan.” In response, Xi argued that Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Taiwan are “domestic affairs that concern China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and urged the US to “respect China’s core interests and deal with those issues prudently.”

Both leaders at the same time agreed on “shared challenges,” including “global health security, climate change, and preventing weapons proliferation.” [White House, USA] [Global Times]

The phone talk came shortly after Biden announced the creation of a new China Task Force of the Department of Defense, charged with reviewing the US approach in areas ranging from strategy and force posture to technology and intelligence, with recommendations expected to be submitted to Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III within four months following its formal setup to “chart a strong path forward on China-related matters.” Headed by Ely Ratner, advisor to Austin, the task force will consist of “up to 15 uniformed and civilian DoD employees”, drawn from various section of the DOD including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Joint Staff, military services, combatant commands and the Intelligence Community. [Jane’s] [Department of Defense, USA]

The conversation comes also amid tensions between Washington and Beijing erupted over the coronavirus investigation of the World Health Organization’s expert group. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed dissatisfaction with results of the investigation and voiced “deep concerns about the way in which the early findings of the COVID-19 investigation were communicated and questions about the process used to reach them,” adding the demand that the report must be “independent, with expert findings free from intervention or alteration by the Chinese government.” Prior to Sullivan’s remarks, a Wall Street Journal report cited members of the investigative team saying that Chinese authorities refused to provide investigators with raw, personalized data on more than 170 cases of Covid-19 that they have identified from the early phase of the outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. [Axios] [Wall Street Journal]

In response to Sullivan, China’s embassy in Washington hit back and accused the US of “gravely damage[ing] international cooperation on COVID-19” and of “pointing fingers at other countries who have been faithfully supporting the WHO and at the WHO itself.” [9 News]

Last week, the WHO investigate team concluded its month-long probe in Wuhan stating that while new information had been obtained they, however, “had not dramatically changed the picture of the outbreak,” adding that “there was no evidence of transmission in Wuhan before December 2019,” and that is “unlikely to have leaked from a Chinese lab,” a claim propagated by the Trump administration. [BBC]

For a discussion of the tension between Biden’s attempts to reset US-Sino relations through an approach towards China containing a “mix of ‘adversarial’, ‘competitive’, and ‘cooperative’ dimensions” on the one side and domestic pressure stemming from Republican hawkishness towards Beijing on the other, see [East Asia Forum].

For findings of a research about China’s and other countries’ efforts to win the battle over the narrative of the coronavirus and its origin in social media, see [AP].

China-UK relations: BBC World News banned in China

(dql) China’s National Radio and Television Administration banned BBC World News from airing in the country, citing the news channel’s failure to meet the requirements to “be truthful and fair” and not “harm China's national interests.”

The ban is retaliatory move after Ofcom, the British media watchdog, revoked the license for China Global Television Network (CGTN), an international English-language satellite news channel, to broadcast in the UK arguing that the news channel is “ultimately controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.” [Deutsche Welle] [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

Adding to the tension, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab echoed the US criticism of China’s role in the investigation of the World Health Organization team into the origins of the coronavirus vowing that the UK will push for “full access” to “all data.” [Politico]

Meanwhile, British lawmakers have called on the government to bar China and Russia from investments in the defense supply chain. The call follows a report of the parliamentary defense committee noted that in the past ten years six British companies with defense as a core business area had been purchased by Chinese investors. It also comes as the UK is expected to publish its Integrated Review of defense, security and foreign policy next month. [Financial Times]

China: EU’s top trading partner in 2020 and growing Covid-19 vaccine provider

(dql) According to data by the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat reveal that China has surpassed the US as the EU’s top trading partner in 2020, with exports of EU goods to China totaling 202.5 billion Euro, a rise by 2.2%, and imports worth 383.5 billion Euro up 5.6%. At the same EU trade with the rest of the world saw a sharp drop, down 9.4% for exports, and down 11.6% for imports compared with 2019. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade was hard hit by the pandemic, with exports of European goods to the US dropping by 8.2% year-on-year, while imports fell 13.2%. [Quartz]

Meanwhile, Hungary is the first EU member state to receive Chinese Covid-19 vaccine after a shipment of 550.000 vaccine doses developed by Chinese state-owned Sinopharm has arrived in Budapest this week. Sinopharm is expected to deliver a total of 5 million doses over the next four months to treat 2.5 million people in the country of about 10 million.

With its purchase of Chinese vaccine, Hungary is breaking from the unified EU strategy under which Brussels buys vaccines on behalf of its 27 member states. Hungarian Prime Minister cited the EU’s slow rollout of the vaccine for Budapest’s turn to China (and Russia). [AP]

For a discussion of the growing impact of China’s vaccine diplomacy in Europe against the background of frustrations over Brussels problems of securing vaccine doses contracted with manufacturers, see Bojan Pancevski in [Wall Street Journal].

China protests against Canada-initiated declaration against hostage diplomacy

(dql) Amid already highly strained relations between China and Canada, Ottawa on Monday launched the “Declaration Against Arbitrary Detention in State-to-State Relations” calling on “all States to refrain from arbitrary arrest, detention, or sentencing to exercise leverage over foreign governments in the context of State-to-State relations.”

While the declaration does not specifically name any country, it is widely seen as targeting especially China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. 59 countries thus far have signed the declaration, including besides Canada, the US, the UK, the vast majority of the member states of the European Union, Japan and Australia. However, only a few countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America countries are participating in the initiative. [Sydney Morning Herald] [Government of Canada]

The Chinese embassy in Canada was quick to strongly object declaration and lodged solemn representations with Canada. [Global Times]

South Korea-US nearing new US troops cost-sharing agreement

(dql) Seoul and Washington are reportedly close to a new cost-sharing agreement for 28.500 US troops in South Korea. Observers believe that the deal taking shape will be a multi-year agreement that increases South Korea’s contribution at about the 13% compared with the previous agreement. Furthermore, the final agreement could include mandated hikes in South Korea’s defense budget, as well as an understanding that Seoul will make certain military equipment purchases.  

In earlier rounds of negotiations, the Trump administration demanded an increase of 400%. [CNN]

South Korea to invest 3.9 billion USD in defense sector research and development

(dql) South Korea’s Ministry of Defense announced that it will invest nearly 4 billion USD in research and development in the defense sector in 2021 in an attempt secure cutting-edge technologies and strengthen the industry’s competitiveness.

Under the Ministry’s 2021 plan, it will push for the development of indigenous weapons parts and establish consortiums of companies, universities and research centers to carry out various development projects. [Korea Herald]

Taiwan-US relations: High-level contacts continue under Biden administration

(dql) Signaling continuation of contacts between US and Taiwanese high-level officials which begun under the Trump administration, Taiwan’s top envoy to the US Hsiao Bi-khim met with Sung Kim, acting assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the State Department. [Focus Taiwan]

India, China initiate troop withdrawal along Northern, Southern Bank of Pangong Tso

(lm) After nine months of fitful progress to resolve the high-altitude border stand-off, China and India have begun pulling back frontline troops on February 10 along the southern and northern bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 4,242m. The region has high, finger-like mountain spurs above the water, and control of these spur is disputed by both countries [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. [The Guardian]

India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament on February 11 that the disengagement of troops along the glacial lake will be followed by another round of talks between top military commanders to discuss moving back soldiers from other disputed areas around the frontier. Further elaborating, the minister said the two sides had agreed to dismantle defense structures they had built on both sides of the lake, where Chinese troops are occupying an eight kilometer stretch of land once patrolled exclusively by Indian forces [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]. [The Straits Times]

Since their eighth round of talks, both sides had been considering a reciprocal disengagement plan for the North Bank of Pangong Tso that involved creating no-patrol zones, pulling back tanks and artillery, and using drones to verify the withdrawal [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. However, in the weeks later, Beijing had reinforced its troops and rapidly strengthened road infrastructure on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), stationed container housing modules across all the friction points and turned a village located in close proximity to the LAC into a major army supply depot.

Beyond the Pangong Tso, however, other friction points are yet to be addressed. A case in point is the Depsang Plains, a high-altitude plain at the northwest portion of the disputed Aksai Chin region of Kashmir, that did not feature in the purported disengagement plan. Although India controls the western portion of the plains as part of Ladakh, China currently occupies 250 square kilometers of territory claimed by India [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2].

What is more, a retired Indian army chief and current Union minister earlier this month boasted that Indian forces had transgressed the LAC more times than the Chinese. This prompted Beijing to respond a day later saying that the minister had made “an unwitting confession” and that India had been making frequent attempts “to encroach on China’s territory” and was “constantly creating disputes and frictions”. [The Hindu]

Indian observers call the disengagement a clear sign of New Delhi’s “pragmatic acceptance” of its lack of military capability to alter the situation, adding that the withdrawal was happening in line with China’s 1959 claim line. Against the backdrop of the Tibetan uprising, China's then Prime Minister Zhou Enlai had proposed that both countries each withdraw their forces 20 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and defined this line as the "the so-called McMahon Line in the east and the line up to which each side exercises actual control in the west". According to Indian observers, through its intrusions since last May, China has already reached the 1959 claim line in Depsang and north of Pangong Tso. [The Economic Times]

Sri Lanka, Japan hold second round of policy dialogue days after Colombo’s U-turn on port deal

(lm) Representatives from Sri Lanka and Japan on February 10 participated in the second round of the Sri Lanka-Japan Policy Dialogue through video channel. Separately, Japan on February 11 announced it will provide approx. $620.000 for a project funding mine clearance in northern Sri Lanka. [ColomboPage] [Daily Financial Times] [EconomyNext]

The meeting came at a time when Sri Lanka is yet to officially inform India and Japan about its recent decision that the strategic Colombo Port's Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) will be exclusively operated by its state-owned Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA). 

Last week, the Cabinet of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa voted to undo a 2019 cooperation pact offering India the right to operate the long-stalled container terminal project at the Colombo port, leaving the latter red-faced, especially at a time when New Delhi is pursuing varied strategies to counterbalance China’s maritime and geopolitical assertiveness in its own backyard. The deal called for a three-way joint venture framework, with the SLPA retaining a 51 percent controlling stake and the remainder split between Indian and Japanese partners. Tokyo was to provide a loan to SLPA to finance the project. [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

Officially, the decision was made in light of growing protests by labor unions and influential sections of the Buddhist clergy. At the same time, however, observers keeping a close eye on the matter have been abuzz with talk of back-door pressure exerted by Beijing on Sri Lankan counterparts to pull the plug on Indian investment, a possibility that is tied to two aspects: China’s high-stakes investments — covering the Colombo International Container Terminal and the Hambantota port — and a recent flare-up in border issues between the two countries. [JOC]

Chinese company threatens international arbitration over delayed CPEC project

(lm) Against the larger backdrop of the slow progress being made on implementing projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2], a Chinese company has threatened to take a Pakistani state-owned company to court for creating hurdles in the commissioning of an energy project.

The Chinese company in December last year completed construction work on the Matiari–Lahore transmission line, a $2.1 billion transmission line that is supposed to transmit electricity to northern Pakistan. Delivered under the build–own–operate–transfer (BOOT) method, the Chinese company will hand over the infrastructure to Pakistan 25 years after commissioning. However, Pakistan’s National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) refused to approve the documents required the commissioning after it had experienced oscillation during trials. [The News International]

Core Group on Sri Lanka confirms to bring resolution at upcoming UN HRC session

(lm) The Core Group on Sri Lanka comprising the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, North Macedonia and Montenegro, will present a resolution on promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka at the upcoming 46th session of the UN Human Rights Council (UN HRC). [Colombo Gazette] [Tamil Guardian]

The announcement comes only days after thousands of ethnic Tamils joint by members of the Muslim community conducted a five-day protest march around the country’s independence-day celebrations on February 4, defying court bans, brutal mob assaults and police intimidation and harassment [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. [Human Rights Watch] [The Hindu]

The resolution will be informed by the recent report of the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet. Published in January, the report documents the alarming retrograde trends on human rights in Sri Lanka and notes that the steps taken by the current Sri Lankan government are a “warning sign” of future violations. This explains why Bachelet recommends states consider a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation. She also recommends the Council to establish investigations and prosecutions under universal jurisdiction, and to impose sanctions on Sri Lankan officials implicated in international crimes [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. Sri Lanka earlier this month strongly rejected the report, saying it contained “speculative, presumptive and unsubstantiated opinions.” [AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]

Prior to the release of the report, major Tamil political and societal leaders in mid-January signed a joint statement in which they declared that there was "no scope" for a domestic accountability mechanism and called for the establishment of an International Independent Investigatory Mechanism (IIIM), including a referral to the ICC [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3].

Sri Lanka has approached several member states, including India, in the run-up to the upcoming session of the UN HRC, asking them to lobby other member nations of the body. New Delhi is one of the 13 members states currently representing the Asia and the Pacific Group. In 2015, India had refrained from co-sponsoring the Council’s landmark resolution 30/1 that gave Colombo another two years to o promote reconciliation, accountability and human rights in the country. The decision was taken as India had to carefully navigate its complex relationship with various parties within Sri Lanka, as well as its own domestic politics. [The Citizen]

Five years later, however, there is little chance that India will plead Colombo’ case. The reason being that Sri Lanka last week decided to undo the 2019 cooperation pact offering India and Japan the right to operate the long-stalled Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal (ETC), drawing strong protests from both New Delhi and Tokyo [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Parliamentary panel relaunches inquiry into effectiveness of Pakistan aid program

(lm) The British International Development Committee (IDC), a select committee of the lower house of Parliament of the United Kingdom, has relaunched an inquiry into the effectiveness of London’s aid project for Pakistan. A previous inquiry launched in June 2019 had ended inconclusive, due to the dissolution of Parliament in November the same year. [Dawn]

Pakistan has been the largest country program under Department for International Development (DFID) for the past five years, receiving more than $400 million in the fiscal year 2019-20, spanning across areas including human development, climate and the environment, and humanitarian aid. [DFID]

Maldives, Bangladesh sign two Memoranda of Understanding

(lm) During a visit of Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid to Bangladesh last week, both countries signed two Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) pertaining to the recruitment of manpower and the training of foreign service officers. [Dhaka Tribune]

The two South Asian nations further agreed to establish two regular consultation mechanisms to boost cooperation on trade and business, in addition to a direct shipping line. The two mechanisms include a joint commission for comprehensive cooperation led by the respective foreign ministers and annual foreign office consultations led by the respective foreign secretaries. [The Daily Star]

Eight killed in Pakistan shootout with militants

(lm) A group of militants attacked a security post in the former tribal region of South Waziristan, triggering a shootout that killed four troops and four insurgents. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but the mountainous region served as a headquarters for local and foreign militants until 2017, when the army said it had cleared the region of insurgents following several operations [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. The region still sees sporadic attacks, mainly targeting security forces. [The Economic Times]

Indian Navy’s maritime exercise TROPEX-21 set to enter final stage

(lm) The Indian Navy is currently conducting its biennial Theatre Level Operational Readiness Exercise (TROPEX) over a vast geographical expanse in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and adjunct waters. The exercise, which began in early January is well underway and set to culminate later this month. The Navy’s largest wargame, it involves the participation of all of its units including ships, submarines and aircrafts, in addition to units from the Indian Army, Air Force, and the Coast Guard. [The Hindu]

The maritime exercise is carried out in three phases - independent workup phase, joint workup phase and tactical phase – to test the Navy’s transition from peacetime to hostilities. In the first phase, the Indian Navy conducted the two-day coastal defense exercise “Sea Vigil 2021” to review its coastal security preparedness [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]. The maritime exercise was followed by the large-scale conjoint amphibious exercise AMPHEX drill, which was conducted in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal from January 21 to 25. The recently concluded workup phase witnessed multiple “on-target” ordnance deliveries, including missiles, torpedoes and rockets from frontline warships, aircraft and submarines to reaffirm the Navy’s capability to carry out long range maritime strikes in the Indian Ocean Region. [The Week]

Multinational maritime exercise AMAN-2021 commences

(lm) The seventh edition of the week-long maritime exercise AMAN formally opened on February 12. Conducted in two phases – harbor and sea – the maritime drill also includes the International Maritime Conference, which will be held under the auspices of Pakistan’s Navy from February 13 to 15. [Dawn] [The Express Tribune]

Conducted biannually since its initiation in 2007, the exercise will bring together naval forces from 41 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, Turkey, Philippines, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia. Significantly, Russia last December confirmed that its Black Sea Fleet will also participate in the drills, marking the first time in a decade that the Russian navy will take part in a joint military exercise with NATO members [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

Pakistan, Turkey launch joint military exercise ATATURK-XI

(lm) A three-week-long joint military exercise involving Turkish Special Forces and troops of Pakistani military's elite Special Services Group commenced on February 9. The opening ceremony of the exercise ATATURK-XI 2021 was held at the headquarters of the Special Services Group in Khyber Pakhtunkwa province. [Anadolu Agency] [The Express Tribune] 

Ankara and Islamabad historically have enjoyed close military and defense cooperation but recent regional developments brought the two countries even closer. In 2018, the Pakistan Navy inter alia signed a contract for the acquisition of four Turkish-built MILGEM corvettes with Turkey’s state-run defense firm and shipyard corporation, ASFAT. Under the agreement, two corvettes will be constructed in Turkey and two in Pakistan. [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]

In January this year, then, Turkey started the construction of the third MILGEM corvette in Istanbul. During the steel cutting ceremony, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Pakistan was a “brotherly country with whom Turkey enjoyed excellent relations”. Earlier that month, Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan also issued the “Islamabad Declaration”, a joint strategy in which they agreed support each other on various international forums on matters pertaining to territorial conflicts [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3].

Pakistan successfully conducts training launch of cruise missile

(lm) Pakistan’s army on February 11 successfully flight-tested Babur IA, a short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile that can range up to 450 kilometers. Pakistan first tested the Babur missile in August 2005. [The Express Tribune ]

This is the third missile launch by carried out the armed forces in less than a month, with launches of the Shaheen-III and Ghaznavi ballistic missiles being conducted in late January and early February, respectively. Earlier in January this year, the army had also test-fired an indigenously developed extended-range guided Multi-Launch Rocket System (MLRS). [AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4, AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]

China, Cambodia to suspend military exercise

(nd) The Cambodian government suspended the fourth annual, two-week military exercise with China, which was set for next month. Officially citing the need to cut spending amid the Covid-19 pandemic, some commented it was a move not to anger the new administration of US President-elect Joe Biden. Also cited were severe repercussions of a flooding in October 2020, destroying much of Cambodia’s infrastructure and food supply, causing 40 deaths. 

The deputy president of the banned opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), Eng Chhai Eang, rejected budget-related claims and stated that China paid the expenses in the last years. Rather, he referred to Cambodia’s aims to appear more neutral with respect to foreign policy. Following Western criticism of the dissolution of CNRP in 2017 and a wider crackdown on civil society, Cambodia grew closer to China, isolating itself also from investors from the West. With more investment from China, Cambodia increasingly backed China with respect to international issues, such as the dispute in the South China Sea. Although China remains the largest investor in large-scale infrastructure projects, criticism is growing with regards to the increased dependency on China as well as negative behavior of Chinese business men, such as in Sihanoukville in the south-west. China still provides military assistance to Cambodia, and despite earlier claims of Prime Minister Hun Sen to only use WHO-approved vaccines, Cambodia started inoculation on Wednesday using 1 million doses of Sinopharm donated by China. [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesian-Iranian ties to be tested 

(nd) In recent years, relations between Shia-governed Iran and majority-Sunni Indonesia have been remarkably well. In line with its foreign policy of non-alignment and the inclusive Pancasila principle, Indonesia avoids to pick sides and has maintained religious openness, both containing hardline clerics and protecting minorities. Recently though, conservative Islam has gained more ground in Indonesia, prompting the administration of President Joko Widodo to take action against hardliners, such as the ban against Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). This move and also the still unresolved killing of six FPI members spiked criticism, the government was out against Muslims. On the other hand, Islamic conservatism made it into the policy realm, causing increased persecution of religious minorities and a deterioration of religious freedoms. In an effort to attract investment from Sunni Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom built mosques and universities across the country, and established a scholarship system for academic exchange, resulting in an increased popularity of its puritan and conservative interpretation of Islam among Indonesian Muslims.

In that scenario, Iran seemingly adapted a pragmatic approach in primarily pursuing trade and economic alliances, as US sanctions have left Iran mostly isolated from other countries. In recent years, there were reciprocal state visits, Iran did not criticize Saudi investments and Indonesia supported Iran’s “right to obtain nuclear weapons.” Due to rising anti-Shia sentiment, the role of religion is more or less downplayed. Still, it is a topic, according to Human Rights Watch, who say there is a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Indonesia, and Iran is actively promoting Shi’ism. This activism is facilitated by institutions like the Jakarta Islamic Center (ICC), which is located closely to LIPIA, the largest Saudi-funded university in Indonesia. The ICC is not managed by the executive branch of the Iranian government, but under the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, distancing such efforts from the diplomatic and political realm.

With growing religious conservatism, it might present tough for Indonesia to maintain this balanced road. On the one hand, Indonesian vice president Mar’uf Amin, as head of both the Nahdlatul Ulama and the Indonesian Council of Ulama (MUI), drafted many fatwas against minority groups, including the Shia. The newly elected members and head of MUI, however, seemed to point into a more moderate direction. Also, efforts to protect religious minorities were voiced just recently, for unity is always a major concern for multireligious nations. [The Diplomat]

Laos, Russia to provide military aid

(py) The Russian government provided Laos with military engineering vehicles and vehicle maintenance equipment. Laos and Russia have long fostered a close defense relationship covering military education, law enforcement, and military equipment purchase. More than 3,000 Laotian officers from the Lao People’s Army have been trained at Russian military academies. On December 10 last year, the two countries had their first joint military exercise with more than 500 soldiers and numerous tanks from both sides.

The joint exercise came at a time when their military cooperation and arms trade was extended significantly, as well as security coordination. According to analysts, Laos is a stepping stone for Russia to become more engaged in the region in the future and establish a military presence. Between 2010 and 2017, Russia has sold $6.6 billion in arms to Southeast Asia, while the U.S. sold $4.58 billion, and China $1.8 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Ever since the war in Ukraine, Russia remained estranged from the West and has been on the look for new partners. For the quick success of its engagement, the Russian ambassador to Laos pointed to the vote of Laos of Cambodia against an UN resolution on Crimea. The ambassador added, he was not worried to strain ties with China over its military engagement in Southeast Asia, and China would prefer if the region was equipped with Russian rather than American weapons.

Southeast Asia’s communist governments and movements were predominantly supported by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which collapsed in 1991. [Laotian Times] [Nikkei Asia]

Malaysia: Detention of Myanmar national announced

(nd) After the military regime in Myanmar offered to take back citizens detained, Malaysia announced to deport 1,200 Myanmar nationals. Malaysia regards them as illegal migrants since it does not formally recognize refugees. There was no comment made whether refugees are among the detainees, but past groups have included members of the Chin, Kachin and the Muslim Rohingya communities. More than 154,000 asylum-seekers from Myanmar are in Malaysia, according to UN refugee agency UNHCR. Myanmar views Rohingyas as illegal migrants from Bangladesh. Myanmar will send navy ships on February 21. This is the first time Myanmar's navy had offered to help repatriate its citizens, according to the Kuala Lumpur-based Alliance of Chin Refugees, who also said refugees are in danger of persecution if sent back.

The Myanmar army in 2007 launched operation against Rohingya Muslims, forcing around 730,000 to neighboring Bangladesh, which was referring to by the UN as “genocidal intent”. [Malaymail]

Myanmar: Responses by the UN to the coup

(nd) In a statement UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on the military and police of Myanmar to ensure that the right of peaceful assembly is “fully respected” and demonstrators are “not subjected to reprisals”. “Reports of continued violence, intimidation and harassment by security personnel are unacceptable”, he added. Guterres called on all member states to “collectively and bilaterally” exercise influence with respect to the protection of the human rights, and urged the military authorities to enable the Special Envoy to visit Myanmar under agreeable conditions and to assess the situation. The UN Special Rapporteur of human rights in Myanmar, underscored with respect to the military generals: “You WILL be held accountable”. He added that “Myanmar military personnel and police need to know that ‘following orders’ is no defence for committing atrocities and any such defence will fail, regardless of their place in the chain of command”. He highlighted that security force “have a moral, professional and legal obligation to protect the people of Myanmar, not provoke or assault them.”

The Deputy UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said the coup sets back the country’s two-decade-long development, and condemned the use of violence against peaceful protesters. She also referred to the current crisis as “born of impunity”, with a lack of civilian control over the military and its disproportionate influence.

Hundreds of arbitrary detentions, mostly happening at night and by police in plainclothes, with the whereabouts of many unknown, many activists went into hiding. In a resolution on Friday, the UN Human Rights Council called for the restoration of the democratically elected Government, the immediate and unconditional release of all persons arbitrarily detained, and the lifting of the state of emergency. Also, it urged the “immediate and permanent lifting of restrictions” on the Internet, telecommunication and social media, and to not further violate the rights to freedom of opinion and expression.  [UN News 1] [UN News 2] [UN News 3]

US, Philippines to demand more financial support to defense

(nd) With his comments over the weekend, the US has to pay if they want to continue a troop deployment agreement, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte opened another chapter concerning the Visiting Force Agreement (VFA). Last year, Duterte unilaterally cancelled the agreement, whose withdrawal has since then been extended twice. The VFA is both vital to US strategy in Asia as well as to the under-resourced Philippine forces. 

In his criticism, Duterte was referring to the rising tension in the South China Sea and the danger of an emerging war, which will be detrimental to the Philippines. Therefore, Duterte argued, the Philippines were not receiving enough military assistance from the US. To back Duterte’s point, the Presidential Spokesman pointed to data from a Stimson Center report, showing that from 2002 to 2017 the Philippines received the least amount of counter-terrorism aid among 12 countries, highlighting they were only receiving a quarter of the amount Pakistan was receiving. The chart only referred to counter-terrorism aid, with all countries listed above the Philippines also ranking higher on the 2020 Global Terrorism Index. Under the VFA, the Philippines receive other benefits, such as aid in cases of disaster and a Mutual Defense Treaty with the US. Also, the US embassy stated mid last year that the Philippines were the largest recipient of US military assistance in the Indo-Pacific region, with an amount of $650 million worth military equipment, excluding military training.

Without further intervention, the VFA will terminate August 9. Due to his attacks on US foreign policy and a tendency towards China, relations between the Philippines and US have been complicated since Duterte took power in 2016. [Reuters] [Rappler]

Philippines: Military seek to deploy more assets to South China Sea

(nd) As a reaction towards a newly passed Chinese Law, the Philippine military commander announced to deploy more assets to the South China Sea to safeguard fishermen. In January, China’s National People’s Congress passed a Law, which places the coast guard under military command and allows it to open fire on foreign boats in the disputed waterways. [See also AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1] Earlier, Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. announced not to file a protest against the law before the United Nations. [See also AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2] 

China claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, which was rejected in a ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2016. China never recognized the ruling. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte did not enforce it but was seeking closer ties to China, distancing himself from traditional ally the United States. Only in 2020, Duterte spoke before the UN General Assembly and stated the ruling was “beyond compromise” and already “part of international law.” [Benar News]

Thailand, China’s Great Wall Motors announces regional production

(nd) Great Wall Motors, a Chinese automobile manufacturer, has announced to build a regional production center for electric vehicles in Thailand. A government spokesman welcomed it as a great honor and commented it correlated the government's BCG (Bio-Circular-Green Economy) policy, which aims to reduce fossil fuels. The company also donated 500,000 facemasks. [Bangkok Post]

Non-claimant states to patrol in South China Sea 

(nd) Amid growing tension in the disputed waterway, two US aircraft carrier strike groups and a French nuclear attack submarine accompanied by a support ship recently patrolled in the South China Sea. According to a report in early January, Germany is considering to send a naval frigate in summer. These deployments highlight an increasing role of non-claimant states in the South China Sea, following so far not successful diplomatic efforts. For the US, it was the second dual aircraft carrier operation in about six months, emphasizing its promotion of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. US allies Japan and Australia have also participated in military exercises in the last months. A growing number of countries, including the US, Australia, Indonesia, France, Germany, and Japan, have rejected the extensive Chinese claims. China criticized the patrol as a show of force, which was detrimental to regional stability and peace, and reiterated their interest in protecting Chinese sovereignty. [Benar News]

ASEAN to have less trust in China

(nd) China’s so-called vaccine diplomacy appears to be unsuccessful, according to a survey by the ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. In a poll conducted from mid-November to January with 1,032 people across ASEAN, 44.2% said China provided the majority of help to the region during the Covid-19 pandemic. Still, and despite proactive efforts to secure vaccine deals in the region, 61.5% of respondents said they would choose the US over China in the ongoing US-China rivalry, a rise of 7.9% in support for the US compared to last year. While new possibilities were associated with the incoming Biden administration, many grow increasingly wary of Chinese influence in the region. China was named as most influential economic power in the region by 76.3% of respondents, 72.3% of which voiced concerns thereof. Of 49.1% who named China as the most influential political and strategic power in the region, 88.6% indicated being worried about this influence.

China was also low in terms of trust among global powers: Additionally, some 63% responded to have "little confidence" or "no confidence" that China will "do the right thing" for the global community, rising more than 10% in comparison to last year. Analysts commented, this trust deficit is upward trending. Its economic and military power combined is viewed as a possible threat to sovereign interests. [Nikkei Asia]

ASEAN-EU strategic partnership

(nd) The new ASEAN–EU Strategic Partnership, announced in December 2020, not only eradicated the donor–recipient dynamic, but the EU might need ASEAN more than ASEAN needs the EU. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has declared it “no longer a luxury but a necessity”.

Issues of cooperation include the economy, ASEAN integration, COVID-19 responses, sustainable development, maritime cooperation and cybersecurity. But on terms of strategy, they still differ. While both agree on principles like a rule-based international order, multilateralism and free trade, a commitment to human rights and democracy is not a prerequisite for ASEAN.

The EU arguably has pushed more for a strategic partnership than ASEAN did. Still, the EU is a major development partner and ASEAN’s largest donor. For that, the EU might have to focus more on influencing ASEAN norms and values, to shape the partnership according to EU’s terms. It remains unclear whether the EU can reach its goal, to enhance EU security and its defense profile in the Asia Pacific, be granted membership in the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus.

The EU has to first ensure coherence in the bloc’s responses towards ASEAN, and avoid the implication of some members’ unilateral Asia Pacific or Indo-Pacific strategies. Also, coherence is needed in relations to the member states of ASEAN. In specific issues, the EU has adopted different stances on member states, such as Cambodia on trade privileges, to Indonesia and Malaysia over palm oil, and stalled FTA talks with Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The situation in Myanmar, which both have so far only commented on, can have implications on the future of the strategic partnership. In 2009, FTA negotiations with ASEAN were stalled due to insecurity of how to deal with Myanmar’s human rights record.

Going forward, ASEAN and the European Union will need to find coherence between their values, interregional and regional positions, and divergent interests among their member states. They will have to agree on how to deal with bilateral and regional issues, and how to carve out a space for the new strategic partnership in regional, multilateral and plurilateral arenas. [East Asia Forum]

Mekong river level remains low

(nd) Reportedly, the water level of the Mekong River dropped to a worrying low, which could at least partly be attributed to outflow restrictions from Chinese hydropower dams upstream, according to the Mekong River Commission (MRC). Low rainfall and dams on the Lower Mekong also contributed to the low level. Level fluctuation affect fish migration, agriculture and transportation, on which nearly 70 million people rely for their livelihoods.

Last year, China agreed to share dam data with the MRC, and the member countries Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. China notified that following construction the flow will be normalized by January 25. Following a brief rise, the level dropped again in February. [Bangkok Post]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

17 February 2021 @ 4:00 pm EST, Krasno Global Affairs & Business Council, USA 

Is Germany Becoming Unpredictable? The End of the Merkel Era and the Future of the Berlin Republic.”

At this event three experts will discuss prospects of German politics in the wake of approaching end of the era of Chancellor Merkel. 

For more information, see [Krasno]

17 February 2021 @ 11:00 am - 1:00 pm CET, Center for Global Development, USA

Expanding Labour Migration to Europe: A Multi-stakeholder Vision 

In the online discussion actor representatives will reflect on the question how to promote more legal labour migration from third countries to Europe in the years to come, and chart a way forward

More details available at [CGDEV].

17 February 2021 @ 3:30 - 5:00 pm IST, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India

How can renewable energy power India Inc? 

This event will discuss the key trends, challenges and opportunities in India’s corporate RE market. 

Please register here: [CEEW]

17 February, 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:00 am EST,  Brookings, USA

A conversation on international governance reform 

As the Biden administration enters its first term, there is a sense of renewed opportunity for America’s reengagement with the world. At this event experts will discuss ideas to strengthen governance and cooperation on artificial intelligence and technology, U.S. engagement in global development, and bridging financing gaps in the social sector.

Learn more about the event at [Brookings].

17 February 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:30 pm EST, Brookings, USA 

Women in Afghanistan and the role of US support

This online discussion will elaborate on the critical question: How can the United States best promote gender equality in Afghanistan - in the midst of conflict, poverty, a global pandemic, and the prospect of an Afghan government in which the Taliban exerts considerable influence?

Please register here: [Brookings]

17 February, 2021 @  3:00 - 4:00 pm EST, Brookings, USA 

Economic impact payments: Uses, payment methods, and costs to recipients 

This new research shows that during the time it took some Americans to receive the stimulus checks, tens of millions of federal dollars were lost in trying to access payments and will also provide recommendations for the new administration on how to improve any new rounds of direct payments.

See [Brookings] for more details.

18 February 2021 @ 10:00 -11:30 am EST,  Brookings, USA 

Nonstate armed actors and the US Global Fragility Strategy: Challenges and opportunities 

This event will discuss how the U.S. government should think about working with, and through, nonstate armed actors in implementing the fragility strategy.

Further informational are available at [Brookings].

18 February, 2021 @2:00 - 3:00 pm EST, Brookings, USA 

The great real estate reset: Rethinking how and what we build

This event will discuss practice and policies the real estate industry and the public sector must adopt to successfully meet the moment.

Please register here: [Brookings]

18 February 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm UTC+ 1, Asia Society, Switzerland 

The Myanmar Coup: Three Weeks Later

How is the atmosphere on-site in Myanmar? What course of action has the military taken by now? What is important to better understand the military junta? And what is to be expected on the different fronts? Find answers to the questions at this online event.

Please register here: [Asia Society]

18 February, 2021 @ 7:00 - 8:00 pm GMT+ 8, Asia Society, Hong Kong 

Christopher K. Ho in Conversation With Willem Molesworth 

The events features Willem Molesworth, Director of de Sarthe gallery, discussing with artist Christopher K. Ho about identity, pre- and post-COVID transnationalism, internationally recurrent signs and symbols, cultural hegemony.

For more information, see [Asia Society].

19 February 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00 am GMT+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore 

China’s COVID Vaccine Diplomacy and Its Implications for Southeast Asia

China is one of the forerunners in the development of COVID vaccines. Chinese leaders have promised to make the vaccines a global public good and give developing countries priority access once they become available. This event will discuss China’s employment of COVID vaccines as a tool of diplomacy.

For more information, see [ISEAS].

19 February 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm EST, Brookings, USA  

Resilience and risk in the US foreign service

This event will discuss the findings and recommendations of the American Academy of Diplomacy's report, particularly focusing on the new legislation governing the Accountability Review Board, and assessing how to shape a more resilient and flexible foreign service.

Please register here: [Brookings]

22 February 2021 @ 3:00 pm GMT+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore

Rising China and its Impact on the Ethnic Chinese in Southeast Asia 

This event will discuss the position of the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore, their similarities and differences, and the impact of a rising China and new Chinese migrants on the process of nation-building in the region.

Please register here: [ISEAS]

22 February 2021 @ 12:00 -12:45 pm EST, Pacific Council on International Policy, USA

UNITED STATES + MEXICO: POLICY IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS 

This event will be framed as a policy briefing, where experts will share their recommendations as if they are presenting for the Biden administration. Audience members will be encouraged to submit their questions as if they are members of the president's cabinet.

For more information, see [Pacific].

22 February 2021 @ 9:00 - 1:00 pm EST, Brookings, USA

The Middle East and the new US administration 

This event will discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. 

Please register here: [Brookings]

22 February 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:00 am UTC+1, Asia Society, Switzerland

Survival Society: Pure Invention

Authro Matt Alt details the history of how Japanese pop culture becomes the soft power vehicle that it is and the defining factors behind it.

Please register here: [Asia Society]

22 February 2021 @ 4:00 - 5:00 pm EST, Asia Society, USA

COVID-19: Medical Divide 

This event will discuss the unequal impact of COVID-19 on racial and ethnic minorities.

Please register here: [Asia Society]

23 February 2021 @ 6:30 - 7:30 pm EST, Asia Society, USA 

Executive Roundtable on The Next Leap of Growth in the Indian Economy with Manoj Kohli

This event will discuss the overarching theme of: what will be the impact on the country's economy and foreign direct investment? Between comprehensive reforms in India and the unknown future of U.S. foreign policy with a new administration in power, India may be at a crossroads.

For more information, see [Asia Society].

23 February 2021 @ 7:00 - 8:00 pm EST, Asia Society, USA 

[MEMBERS ONLY] Understanding China: A Special Town Hall With Leading U.S. Journalists 

Asia Society presents a special members-only gathering of top-tier journalists and a town-hall style discussion on the current and future state of U.S.-China relations.

Please register here: [Asia Society].

23 February 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:15 pm GMT+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore 

Vietnam’s 13th Party Congress: Continuities and New Elements in Economic Development

This event will discuss the challenges that lie ahead as Vietnam seeks to restore its economic growth momentum against the backdrop of domestic constraints and external geostrategic uncertainties.

Please register here: [ISEAS]

23 February 2021 @ 4:00 - 5:00 pm EST, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

Political Geographies of the Populist Right 

Support for populist right-wing parties and candidates has increased considerably across the globe in recent years. In addition to this overall rise in support, receptiveness towards the exclusionary, reactionary rhetoric and policies of strong leaders all have their own distinct electoral geographies. At this event, experts will discuss how to make sense of deep geographic divides, similarities and differences in spatial patterns across countries, strategies parties are using to mobilize voters across space and place, and other pertinent questions.

Please register here: [Harvard]

23 February 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:30 am  GMT+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore 

Constraints and Opportunities for Indonesia’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic 

In this webinar, speakers will highlight past, present, and possible future trajectories to achieving “Ekonomi Kerakyatan” (i.e. economic growth and development by the people and for the people) through accounts of the country’s economic ideology and various actors. They will envision Indonesia’s journey towards a fairer, more inclusive and more sustainable economic growth and development. 

Please register here: [ISEAS]

24 February 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00 am GMT+11, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Australia  

ASPI Webinar: TikTok & WeChat, where to now? 

This event will discuss the policy options available to lawmakers, both in the United States and around the world, that go beyond blanket bans.

Please register here: [ASPI]

24 February 2021 @ 10:00 - 4:30 pm EST, Brookings, USA  

Opportunity Zones: The early evidence 

In an effort to spur economic development in distressed and left-behind communities, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created more than 8,700 Opportunity Zones across the country and offered favorable capital gains tax treatment to investments in those low-incomes communities. Although Opportunity Zones are still young, they are already stimulating rigorous research. This events provides an opportunity to share, discuss, and critique that work. 

Please register here: [Brookings]

24 February, 2021 @ 1:30 - 2:30 pm GMT + 11, Asia Society, Australia 

The Next Leap of Growth in the Indian Economy with Manoj Kohli 

How will new comprehensive reforms and an unknown future of U.S. foreign policy impact India’s economy and foreign direct investment in 2021? Find answers on this question at this online talk.

Please register here: [Asia Society]

25 February 2021 @ 12:00 - 1:00 pm EST, Asia Society, USA 

Innovations and Investment in Climate Change Solutions

Citizens and organizations across the globe seeking to address climate change have called on governments and corporations to do more to address the increasing concerns for a sustainable future. In response, investors, policymakers, legislators, and numerous other stakeholders are adopting new policies and implementing solutions to decarbonize the world's economies. Join this event and hear two women who are leading sustainable initiatives to address climate change.

For more information, see [Asia Society].

25 February, 2021 @ 2:00 - 3:00 pm EST, Brookings, USA 

Addressing education inequality with next generation community schools

This event will discuss what it would take to invest in and scale a next generation of community schools to neighborhoods across America, beginning with the school districts hardest hit by COVID-19 and education inequalities. 

Please register here: [Brookings]

26 February 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:15 am GMT+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore 

From Pakatan Harapan to Perikatan Nasional in East Malaysia: A Missed Opportunity for Greater Autonomy? 

This event will discuss safe-guarding party and personal interests, political elites in Sabah and Sarawak have failed to significantly advance East Malaysian rights and need to rise above party and ethnic sentiments. 

Please register here: [ISEAS]

27 February 2021 @ 1:00 - 2:00 pm EST, Asia Society, USA

Fauja Singh Keeps Going: The True Story of the Oldest Person to Ever Run a Marathon

Fauja broke world records to become the first one hundred-year-old to run a marathon. This book shares valuable lessons on the source of his grit, determination to overcome obstacles, and commitment to positive representation of the Sikh community.

For more information, see [Asia Society].

28 February 2021 @ 11:30 - 12:30 pm EST, Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

A Book Talk About the Food We Grow and Eat 

This book launch event will introduce to Robert Paarlberg's latest publication: Resetting the Table: Real Talk About the Food We Grow and Eat.

For more information see, [CSIS]

3 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm GTM+8, Yusuf Ishak Institute, Singapore

Worsening European Public Opinion on China and Implications for Asia​

This online event will discuss findings of the Sinophone Borderlands survey of public opinion in 13 European countries indicating that China’s confrontational diplomacy, including during the Covid-19 pandemic, declining human rights situation, and scepticism of economic exchanges contribute to the worsening image of China across Europe. 

More about the event at [ISEAS].

Recent book releases 

Eitan Hersh, Politics Is for Power: How to Move Beyond Political Hobbyism, Take Action, and Make Real Change, Scribner, 288 pages, January 20, 2020, reviewed in [Boston Review].

Simon Akam, The Changing of the Guard: the British army since 9/11, Scribe, 704 pages, February 2021, reviewed in [The Guardian].

Calls

CESRAN International invites to submit papers relating to all aspects of humanities and social sciences on wider Eurasia, for the 8th International Conference on Eurasian Politics & Society on 22nd–24th September 2021. Submission deadline is July 1, 2021. For more information, see [CESRAN].

The Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague invites scholars to submit papers for its 10th Conference "Quarter Century of 'The Coming Anarchy':  A Future of Sovereignty". Submission deadline is August 31, 2021. For more information, see [Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University].

Jobs & positions

The Asian Development Bank is recruiting a Deputy Country Director for its India Resident Mission. Closing date for applications is February 18, 2021. For more details, see [ADB].

The International Organization for Migration is hiring a Regional Project Officer with duty station in Panama City, Panama. Applications can be submitted until February 25, 2021. More information about the vacancy are available at [IOM].

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

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