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Asia in Review

No. 22, June/2020, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week’s AiR. 

We hope you enjoy an informative read and stay healthy and safe as steps back to normalcy are taken in countries across the world. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: NPC approves economic rescue plan and resolution on Hong Kong National Security Law

(dql) The week-long National People’s Congress 2020 closed last Thursday with two major outcomes. 

First, in an attempt to counter the economic fallout of the pandemic, China will provide a stimulus package of more than 550 billion USD worth to fund cost cuts for pandemic-hidden factories and merchants to save jobs. The measures of the stimulus package range from tax exemptions, lower bank interest rates and a waiver of contributions to social welfare funds to reduced prices for utilities such as electricity. In addition, China has pledged fiscal spending and government bond issuances worth more than 280 billion USD. [South China Morning Post 1]

Secondly, the NPC approved a resolution of the government to craft a national security law for Hong Kong that would punish subversion, secession, terrorism and foreign interference in the former British colony and would allow relevant central agencies to establish institutions in the city to “lawfully fulfill their related duty of protecting national security.” Hong Kong’s legislature will not be involved in the legislative process of the law. [CNN] [Xinhua, for the text of the resolution in Chinese]

The resolution is Beijing’s latest in a string of moves to exert tightened control over Hong Kong in the light of the anti-government protests. In latest developments showing backing of the move from government institutions in Hong Kong, Hong Kong's security chief on Monday announced that the city's government has begun preparatory work by making available the human and material resources needed to ensure a smooth implementation of law once it is enacted, while heads of the governing council of eight publicly funded universities in Hong Kong have jointly expressed support for the law. Last year universities had been the stage of some of the most violent protests in Hong Kong. [ECNS] [South China Morning Post 2]

The approval of security law resolution deepened concerns and condemnation with critics fearing and forecasting a massive curtailing of democratic rights and spaces in the city and the end of Hong Kong’s autonomy. [East Asia Forum][Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 1] [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 2] [Hong Kong Free Press]. 

A very first move verifying these fears in the view of critics of the law is the banning of a vigil marking the Tiananmen Square crackdown this week by the police for the first time in 30 years. Police cited public health for the ban. [BBC]

In response to those critics, Premier Li Keqiang, defended the NPC’s move and insisted at his press conference following the closure of NPC that the future Hong Kong National Security Law aims to “accurately carry out the guiding principles of ‘one country two systems’, ‘Hong Kong citizen govern Hong Kong’, and high degree of autonomy.” [Government, China, in Chinese] 

Japan: End of state of emergency

(dql) Last week, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended the state of emergency in Japan after lifting  the remaining state of emergency in Hokkaido as well as Tokyo and its three surrounding prefectures. The decision was based on positive coronavirus-related developments in the past weeks including improved hospital capacity, an easing inflow of hospitalized patients, and a downward trend of new infections below 0.5% per 100,000 people nationwide. [The Diplomat]

In a related development, Abe's cabinet approved a stimulus package worth 1.1 trillion USD.  The set of measures aimed to keep Covid-19 hidden businesses and households afloat include financing help for struggling companies, subsidies to help firms pay rent and for health care assistance and support for local economies. [Bloomberg]

Japan: Ruling and opposition parties 

(dql) Latest data of Japan’s immigration authorities revealed that the country’s new visa system, introduced in April last year in a bid to bring in more foreign workers to tackle the serious labor shortage, failed to reach the expected results. As of March, a total of only 3,987 foreign workers with the new visa were registered, compared to expected 47,550. [Kyodo]

North Korea: Kim Jong Un demands money from North Korea’s elite

(yo) As North Korea faces an economic decline severely impacted by global pandemic and sanctions, Kim Jong-un makes adjustments in policies and management practices. The measure he has adopted is demanding cash from rich North Koreans, also known as donju. Experts say this is North Korea’s sharpest economic downturn since 1997, and that the adversity is proved by how Pyongyang aims to cover about 60% of state budget from this group of people. Observations of bond issues have been made, as “voluntary contributions” are made to counter challenges faced with hindered domestic commerce and trade with China. 

Experts note these measures signify North Korea’s return to centralized control, and that the pandemic may be an opportunity for Kim to bolster control in foreign trade. Despite the crisis, Kim continues to dedicate large portions of financial resources to its military. [Financial Times]

Taiwan: Criminalization of adultery unconstitutional

(ef) Reversing an earlier decision of its own, the Taiwanese Constitutional Court ruled in a landmark decision that the criminalization of adultery is unconstitutional arguing that the relevant Article 239 of the Taiwanese Criminal Code which sets out that those who commit adultery shall be sentenced to prison for less than one year if the alleged victim files a complaint infringes on people’s privacy rights. [Focus Taiwan 1]

The ruling triggered mixed reactions within Taiwan’s society. While it was criticized by conservative groups for favoring sexual freedoms over loyalty on the on hand, it was celebrated by activists as a crucial step in Taiwan’s constitutional history and the promotion of marriage equality. 

According to the International Commission of Jurists, women were 20% more likely to be convicted of the charge. [Focus Taiwan 2] [New York Times]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Nepal: Government pushes ahead with constitutional amendment to approve new map

(lm) Nepal’s ruling Communist Party government on Sunday tabled a constitutional amendment bill in parliament aimed at formalizing the inclusion of the strategic north-western tri-junction with India and China – Kalapani, Limpiadhura and Lipulekh – within Nepal’s territory. The push follows on an all-party meeting earlier last week, which was convened by Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli who had sought a consensus on amending the constitution to include the disputed territories. [Al Jazeera]

On Saturday, then, the central committee of the Opposition Nepali Congress party voiced support for the government’s plan to allow the new contours of the border to be incorporated in its coat of arm. With the main opposition party endorsing the legislation, the amendment bill is expected to pass in the next days and to likely worsen the bilateral ties between the two countries. [The Wire]

Nepal’s latest diplomatic row with India erupted on May 8 when New Delhi announced the inauguration of a new Himalayan link road built through the disputed area of Kalapani that lies at a strategic three-way junction with Tibet and China. [Asia in Review No. 20, May/2020, 3]

For insights in a potential political time bomb in the form of Oli’s conflict with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (JSP) see [Swarajyamag]. The JSP is the primary party of the Madhesis who form over 19 per cent of the country’s population and have close kinship ties with India. JSP has been demanding an amendment of the Constitution to redraw the country’s provincial boundaries, grant official recognition to regional languages, address issues related to citizenship and expand representation in the National Assembly. Oli, however, is likely to reject these demands.

Nepal: HRW demands revision of intelligence bill

(dql) Human Rights Watch has called on the Nepalese government to amend the Special Service Bill which, according to the human rights organization, risks providing the national intelligence agency unlimited surveillance and search powers allowing communications interception without judicial oversight. [Human Rights Watch]

India: High-profile terrorist arrested

(dql) The Special Task Force of Kolkata Police arrested Abdul Karim alias Boro Abdul Karim, the commander of the Bangladesh-based terror group Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). He is considered the second highest leader in the JMB in India after JMB chief Salauddin Salehin.

JMB is allegedly involved in several terror-related incidents in the country including the Burdwan bomb blast in 2014 which killed two suspected terrorists as well as a series of bomb blasts in Gaya in 2013 in which several monks and visitors were injured. [Zeenews]

Pakistan: Prime Minister rejects a second coronavirus lockdown

(dql) Defying rapidly increasing coronavirus cases in Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that he will not impose a second lockdown citing the suffering of the poor during the previous two-months lockdown which ended in late May and saying: “We have to save our people from coronavirus and hunger simultaneously."

The country has hitherto a total of 72,460 of confirmed Covid-19 cases and 1,543 deaths. Over the past week almost 300 deaths and more than 11,000 new cases were recorded. [AA]

Pakistan: 'Blasphemy' death row couple's appeal

(dql) The case of a Pakistani Christian married couple, which was convicted and sentenced to death in 2014 for blasphemy and now waits for an appeal trial against their death sentence in this week, sheds light on the problem of blasphemy allegations in Pakistan which are frequently used to target religious minorities in the country.

Their lawyer, while believing that the evidence used to convict the couple was deeply flawed, warned that judges can be "fearful" of acquitting suspects as they themselves might be targeted by extremists. And even though blasphemy convictions are often eventually reversed on appeal, the acquitted still live in fear of hard-line religious groups chasing them. [BBC]

Sri Lanka: Human rights lawyer receives death threats on social media

(dql) Fearing for her life due to police inaction, a Sri Lankan supreme court lawyer defending victims in several cases of grave human rights violations allegedly committed by members of the security forces has lodged a complaint with the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) for the second time within a year against men who had repeatedly posted death threats against her on social media. [JDS]

Bangladesh: Covid-19 lockdown ended

(dql) The Bangladesh government has decided not to extend the lockdown, imposed end of March over the coronavirus pandemic, with economic activities to resume on a limited scale and health directives staying in place.

Bangladesh so far has a recorded total of more than 38,000 Condi-19 cases and close to 550 deaths. [India.com]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysia: Face-off between Mahatir and Muhyiddin over Bersatu membership

(ls) Malaysia’s former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has suffered another political defeat. Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the party he co-founded in 2016, ejected him and four other lawmakers from the party. They had refused to support the government led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The official reason stated by the party was that Mahatir and the four others sat in the opposition bloc in the parliamentary session on 18 May. Bersatu’s party statute states that members who join other parties would be automatically ejected. [Straits Times]

Mahathir, however, insisted that he remained in control of the party, dismissing the legitimacy of the termination letters. Rather, he said, Muhyiddin should be ejected from the party for staging the coup against him back in March. The two factions also dispute who holds the position of secretary general. Observers say that the intraparty battle is likely to weaken both factions within Bersatu, with the Barisan Nasional alliance, which was defeated in the 2018 general election, likely to benefit. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Muhyiddin had to go into a two-week quarantine after an officer who attended a post-Cabinet meeting tested positive for Covid-19. [Voice of America]

Malaysia: Islamic law banning gay sex challenged in the Federal Court

(ls) The Federal Court of Malaysia has allowed a motion for the review of an Islamic law in the state of Selangor that bans sex “against the order of nature”. The man bringing the claim argues that Selangor does not have the power to enforce its law as gay sex is already a crime under general laws. Malaysia retains a British colonial-era ban on sodomy, which is a crime punishable by up to 20 years in jail, although it is rarely enforced. [Reuters]

Singapore and Malaysia aim to improve living standards of migrant workers

(ls) Singapore is cautiously reopening its economy as Covid-19 is still spreading. Pupils have been allowed back to school, though not all every day, and about three quarters of the economy has resumed activities. Daily new cases are still in the hundreds. The overall number of infections stands at 35,000, with about 93 per cent of these among the country’s low-wage migrant worker population. [South China Morning Post]

National Development Minister Lawrence Wong announced on Monday that the government will build new foreign worker dormitories with “better standards” for up to 100,000 workers. Some of these will be temporary structures or former schools and vacant factories to provide quick relief from current overcrowded conditions. Wong said that some of the new dormitory sites would be quite near residential areas, “so all of us have to do our part to reject the ‘not in my backyard’ mindset.” [Today Online]

However, conditions under the new arrangements will remain tight. The living space per resident at new quick-build dormitories will be lifted to at least 6 square meters (not including shared facilities) from currently at least 4.5 square meters per resident (including shared facilities). The maximum number of beds per room would be ten. Currently, there are no limits on the maximum number of beds allowed per room. In practice, dormitories typically have about 12 to 16 beds in each room. [Channel News Asia]

Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the Human Resources Ministry has told employers to make arrangements and provide proper accommodation for foreign workers in all sectors within three months according to the Minimum Standards of Housing and Amenities (Amendment) Act. Prior to the amendment, the Act only covered accommodation and housing for workers in plantations that were more than 8 hectares and in the mining sector. [Straits Times]

Singapore: Four months imprisonment for Covid-19 fake news

(ls) In Singapore, a man has been sentenced to four months imprisonment over a Facebook post in which he falsely claimed food outlets would close and urged people to stock up due to Covid-19 restrictions. Last month, a man who broke quarantine was fined $1,000. Another man who breached an order to stay home to eat pork rib soup was jailed for six weeks. [Reuters]

Thailand: Palang Pracharath leadership change imminent after resignations

(ls) Thailand's ruling coalition party, the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), is in transition toward a major leadership change. On Monday, 18 of its 34 executive members quit the board, thus paving the way for internal elections to pick new executives and a party leader. According to the party’s regulations, if the membership of more than half of the executive committee is terminated, the entire executive committee is dissolved. The party is currently led by Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana. The secretary-general is Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong. Both were ministers in the former military government. Among those executives who resigned was Deputy Agriculture Minister Thammanat Prompao, a controversial figure due to news reports about alleged involvement with drug crimes in the past. [Straits Times]

It is expected that Deputy Prime Minister and PPRP chief strategist Prawit Wongsuwon will be nominated to become the new party leader. Anucha Nakhasai, a member of parliament for Chai Nat province, might become the new secretary-general. He is a key member of the so-called Sam Mitr (Three Allies) group, a faction that has been credited for much of the PPRP's success in last year's general election. A Cabinet reshuffle seems also likely. [Bangkok Post 1]

Last week, a letter went viral that was sent by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to an opposition politician explaining why it did not find then Defence and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit guilty of failing to declare 22 watches he claimed to have borrowed from a friend who later died. The explanation given by the NACC (“While a loan for use is a liability, it is not the type the NAAC requires to be declared in its asset declaration form”) has been criticized by many as unsatisfactory. The original ruling was made on 26 December 2018. [Bangkok Post 2]

Indonesia: Indonesian policeman killed by sword-wielding militant

(yo) A militant suspected to be an extremist linked with the Islamic State (IS) killed an Indonesian policeman and severely injured another on Monday. The aggressor had apparently planned a raid at the police post in South Daha district on Kalimantan with another attacker. They exploded a car outside the police post by setting it on fire, which led the officers outside when the raid began. Authorities note the act happening on a day commemorating pluralist democracy in Southeast Asia as a continued pattern of extremist activities that have been targeted against state figures. [Channel News Asia]

Laos’ first Civil Code enters into force

(ls) Last week, Laos’ new Civil Code entered into force. It has been drafted over the course of six years. Including the preparatory period, the process took 15 years in total. Previously, contract and property law in Laos were separate, which meant problems of overlap and omission. The Civil Code now combines them into a single piece of legislation. The drafting took place with the continuous advice of Japanese legal experts. Since starting with Vietnam in 1994, Japan has been offering legal advice to Southeast Asian nations, including Cambodia, Indonesia and Myanmar. In 2018, Japan’s Justice Ministry’s established an international division to lead the country’s judicial diplomacy. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Myanmar: Violence rages on in Rakhine State

(jn) The insurgent Arakan Army (AA) killed four policemen and captured nine people, police and family members, in an attack on a paramilitary border guard outpost in Rathedaung township of Rakhine state on Friday. The military decried the AA’s strategy of targeting border guard outposts and police stations, but also civilians, as war crimes. An AA spokesman said that the attack was in retaliation for an army raid on an AA camp in Chin state on May 24. Since the beginning of the armed conflict between Myanmar and the AA in late 2018, another such large scale raid on border posts only happened in January 2019, leaving 14 policemen dead [AiR No. 1 January/2019, 1] [RFA][Myanmar Times]

Last Tuesday, Human Rights Watch (HRW) denounced the almost complete torching of an abandoned Chin State village which it said had “all the hallmarks” of previous military arson attacks on villages. Locals, however, were reluctant to put the blame on either side of the conflict between the AA and the government forces. No deaths have been reported since the village had been deserted for several months after artillery fire had scared away the villagers, but some former residents living nearby have now lost all their livelihoods. 

In another case, satellite images have now revealed that the large destruction of another abandoned village in Rakhine state was indeed caused by arson. Neighboring villagers had witnessed soldiers entering the village before they heard gunfire and saw flames erupt. HRW denounced the devastation and called for an impartial investigation. The Myanmar military also used arson as a military tactic during its crackdown on Rohingya communities in 2017 forcing about 750.000 Rohingya Muslims to flee for Bangladesh and leaving thousands dead which led to investigations by the International Criminal Court against Myanmar. [CNA] [RFA 2] [RFA 3]

Such violent incidents that happen on a regular basis have also made clear that the many unilateral ceasefires announced by the Tatmadaw or insurgent groups in recent years have mostly not been adhered to and failed to stop the fighting. [The Diplomat]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Tensions remain high over Hong Kong National Security Law

(dql) Sino-US tensions remain high following the approval of the resolution of the Chinese government to impose a national security law for Hong Kong by the National People’s Congress (NPC). [South China Morning Post]

In response to the move, US President Donald Trump announced that he will end preferential treatment for Hong Kong in trade and travel as well as take “necessary steps to sanction” both Chinese and Hong Kong officials considered to be “directly or indirectly involved in eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy.” The way for Trump’s move was paved by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo shortly ahead of the resolution’s passage when he declared that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China, a assessment that allows for revoking favorable trade relationship with the USA and sanctioning Chinese officials believed to be responsible for the loss of the preferential status. [BBC] [CNBC 1] [CNBC 2]

Responding to Trumps’ announcement, Hong Kong Chief Executive accused the USA of “double standards” in defending the Hong Kong protests and condemning the planned security law by pointing to the Trump administration’s response to violent racial justice protests currently sweeping the United States. [Channel News Asia]

China's state media also hit back warning that the “baton of sanctions that the United States is brandishing will not scare Hong Kong and will not bring China down,” as “"China has already prepared for the worst. No matter how far the US goes, China will keep its company." [Sydney Morning Post]

For possible US reactions of Beijing’s tightened grip on Hong Kong see Steve Bannon, former chief strategist to President Trump and chairman of the “Committee on the Present Danger: China” in an interview in [The Wire] who urges Washington “to go as hard-core as possible” against China, including tackling mainland Chinese banks and sanctions against Chinese officials, and warned that failing to do so would lead “to a path to war, to a kinetic war” between both countries.

In another move of Trump causing speculations about an attempt to forge an alliance to contain China, he announced that he plans to invite Australia, India, South Korea and Russia to join an upcoming G7 meeting in September and to expand the G7 to become a G10 or G11. [The Telegraph] South Korea was the first of the additional four countries to confirm that he received an invitation and that he accepted it. [Korea JoongAng Daily]

Also adding to ongoing high tensions between China and the USA, a Canadian court ruled last week that the case of senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who is fighting extradition to the United States, can proceed further after finding that her case meets the threshold of double criminality, i.e. the charges would be crimes in both the US and Canada. The USA seek’s Meng’s extradition to bring her to trial on charges linked to the alleged violation of US sanctions against Iran. China rejected the ruling saying that the “purpose of the United States is to bring down Huawei and other Chinese high-tech companies, and Canada has been acting in the process as an accomplice of the United States. The whole case is entirely a grave political incident." [BBC]

Cross-Strait relations: Taiwan’s legislature condemns Beijing's Hong Kong national security law resolution

(ef) Taiwan’s legislature denounced Beijing’s decision on imposing a national security law on Hong Kong with all major parties stating that the security law negates the PRC’s promise of ‘a high degree of autonomy’ in Hong Kong. [Focus Taiwan 1]

Meanwhile, civic groups have called for the establishment of an asylum system for political refugees from Hong Kong. Currently, there is no law governing the refugee policy, albeit Article 18 of the Laws and Regulations Regarding Hong Kong and Macau Affairs states that ‘necessary assistance’ shall be given to Hong Kong and Macau residents whose safety and liberty are immediately threatened for political reasons. President Tsai Ing-wen has announced that a ‘humanitarian assistance action plan’ covering residency rights and social assistance for Hong Kongers shall be drafted. [Focus Taiwan 2 ] Article 18 has never been publicly utilized to avoid antagonizing the PRC. Whilst Taiwan has quietly extended temporary visas of many Hong Kongers, the government has not provided them with financial or other direct assistance. [The Diplomat 1]

Meanwhile, a leading PRC-official reiterated that the PRC will use its armed forces to ‘resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions’ of the Taiwanese government. The 2005 secession law [for an English version see China Embassy] allows the use of force if peaceful reunification efforts fail. However, the head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office assured that the preferred modus operandi remained ‘one country, two systems’ and ‘peaceful reunification’. [Aljazeera] 

A recent study on the Taiwanese public opinion toward Taiwan, China and Taiwan’s future can be assessed at [The Diplomat 2].

South Korea reopens WTO complaint against Japan’s trade curbs

(dql) South Korea announced that it will reopen a complaint filed with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Japan’s tightened controls on technology exports to its companies.

The move comes months after Seoul had halted its WTO action in November to pave the way for talks to settle disputes over Japan’s restrictions on exports to South Korea viewed by South Korea as Japan’s retaliatory measures against South Korean court rulings that ordered Japanese companies to offer reparations to aging South Korean victims of forced labor during Japan’s rule over the Korean peninsula. So far, the talks, however, have not yielded any progress. [The Diplomat]

Bangladesh: Pakistan firm plans to import Covid-19 treatment drug from Bangladesh

(yo) Bangladesh will export a generic version of the antiviral medication Remdesivir, that has shown to expedite the recovery process of Covid-19 patients to Pakistan. The drug was developed by Beximco Pharmaceuticals and was granted emergency use by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat patients with severe coronavirus symptoms. Remdesivir was originally developed by US company Gilead Sciences, which has exclusive rights to produce the antiviral. Global trade rules, however, allow least developed countries (LDCs) indicated by the UN to ignore the patent and make the drugs so that they would be more accessible in their countries. Bangladesh is exempted from the patent while Pakistan isn’t. Beximco Pharmaceuticals expressed it will not commercially profit from the import until pandemic is over and make donations. Currently, there is no certainty Remdesivir will reduce number of Covid-19 induced deaths, but cutting the recovery time by about 4 days will help hospitals and governments deal with the pandemic more efficiently. [Dawn] [Arab News]

India-Pakistan relations I: Pakistan embassy officials expelled over espionage charges

(lf/lm) India’s foreign ministry on Sunday leveled espionage charges against Pakistan declaring two officials that worked at Pakistan’s high commission in New Delhi “persona non grata”. In a statement, the ministry said the pair had engaged in “activities incompatible with their status as members of a diplomatic mission” and was asked to leave the country “within 24 hours”.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry condemned the expulsion rejecting the charges of espionage against the staffers of its mission and further claiming that the two had been detained and tortured by Indian authorities.

The move is likely to further strain the already tense ties between the neighboring countries, who have a long-running dispute over the Muslim-majority territory of Kashmir. [Deutsche Welle] [The Guardian] [Reuters]

India-Pakistan relations II: Kashmir tensions

(lf) Pakistan has reached out to the UN Security Council; it urges the UN to facilitate a peaceful resolve of the conflict in the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan. Pakistan especially calls to the UN to stop extrajudicial killing in the Indian occupied territories of Kashmir. [The Nation]

India has been repeatedly criticized for not upholding rights in the contested regions. The Indian controlled part of Kashmir and Jammu has been largely under lockdown since August, when a decision by Prime Minister Narendra Modhi to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy was met with protest. [Human Rights Watch]. 

The relations between India and Pakistan, as well as with China, which also claims part of the region have been extremely strained in recent month over the situation. [for more information on India – China and the Kashmir situation bbc] [For more information on the tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir Global Conflict Tracker].

India and Australia scheduled to hold maiden virtual bilateral summit 

(lf) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modhi and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison will be holding the first virtual bilateral summit on June 4, after Morrison had to postpone his visit to India due to the bush fires in Australia. The initial meeting was scheduled for January and was set to strengthen strategic ties between India and Australian on matters of security cooperation.Therefore, the main topics of the virtual summit will be regarding maritime security and safety. [abc]

India-China military standoff: Tensions are rising 

(lm) Amidst its latest border flare-up with China, India has sidestepped U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate. The Indian Foreign Ministry on Thursday said that India was determined to settle the row and had already engaged in talks with China. [The Straits Times]

Despite their insistence on being committed to peacefully resolve the confrontation, in recent days both armies have rushed in thousands of reinforcements and started to dug in defences. [Reuters]

Since early May, an escalating build-up has caused Indian and Chinese soldiers to engage in a military standoff on the disputed border in the remote Ladakh region in the Himalayas, accusing each other of trespassing. [Asia in Review, No. 19, May/2020, 2] [bbc]

Thailand reconsiders CPTPP membership to ease economic impact of Covid-19

(ls) The Thai government has agreed to set up a committee to consider whether Thailand should become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The commerce ministry said a study it had conducted showed that membership would lift Thailand’s economic growth which could help to mitigate the negative impact of the Covid-19 crisis. Last month, the government still rejected further steps toward membership. Civil society organizations say that CPTPP could negatively affect Thai agricultural and healthcare sectors. [Bangkok Post]

Cambodia invites foreign military for training

(ls) Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen has invited foreign powers to conduct military training in the country. He said the country would “welcome all aid from the US, France, Japan and China” to move a military training centre from the Ream naval base to a new location. The Ream base is strategically well-located in the Gulf of Thailand. However, Hun Sen also insisted that he would not allow military bases to be established by foreign countries. [Channel News Asia]

Hun Sen further also reiterated that China would not receive any exclusive rights to make use of the Ream base. Cambodia hosted a joint military exercise with China in March as the coronavirus crisis was growing. China is Cambodia’s biggest investor and closest political partner. [The Diplomat]

Can Vietnam translate its Covid-19 success into political leverage?

(ls) Vietnam has been widely acclaimed for its successful management of the Covid-19 outbreak. Until today, official numbers do not show any single corona-related death. Early inbound travel restrictions at the beginning of February seemed to have been a vital element of Vietnam’s strategy. Toward the end of April, the government relaxed restrictions on people going out that had been in place for only about three weeks. In the capital, as well as Ho Chi Minh city, restaurants and street vendors started to reopen. [Asahi Shimbun]

The success provides the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam with a much-needed domestic legitimacy boost after a number of controversial issues, including the deadly clash between the government and civilians this year over a land dispute in Dong Tam as well as allegations of widespread corruption within the Party. And it may also increase the country’s prestige in the international arena as it offers a model for other countries in the region looking to contain the pandemic with limited resources. This all comes at a time when Vietnam is the current chair of ASEAN and a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. These fora can provide suitable platforms for increased crisis diplomacy. [East Asia Forum]

Myanmar trying to find its footing amid power struggle between China and India

(jn) The Myanmar military flew detained members of Indian insurgent groups from the northwestern region of Sagaing to the Indian state Assam in mid-May to surrender them to Indian authorities, which now has become public. Indian insurgents have sought shelter in western Myanmar since the late 1960s from where they used to launch offensives into eastern Indian states. This was mostly condoned or denied by Myanmar authorities, whose resources were tied up in other seditious regions of the country, until February 2019 when the army raided a headquarter that was shared between a faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) and rebels from India.

The recent repatriation and last year’s raid fit the greater pattern of a geostrategic (re-)alignment that Myanmar seeks in a regional rivalry between China in the north and India in the west. Before the political reforms and state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s rise to power in the last decade, the country had deep ties with China. The latter has never linked its investments and arms sales to Myanmar’s human rights record unlike the West. The revival of diplomatic relations between Myanmar and the West, however, came to an abrupt halt with the violent crackdown against Rohingyas and the ensuing refugee crisis in 2017.

In recent years the Myanmar leadership has pivoted to several other countries, first and foremost again to China, which is eager to further integrate Myanmar in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aiming at strengthening the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) as an exclusive access to the Indian Ocean and vast natural resources. However, rifts have appeared between Suu Kyi, who is working towards ever closer ties with Beijing, and the military’s top brass, who are increasingly seeing themselves as their country’s guardian against an anticipated loss of sovereignty under Chinese dominance. 

This comes as a remarkable reversal of the previous role allocation, because Suu Kyi as an internationally revered political pro-democracy and human right activist, formerly married to a Tibetologist, was not the obvious go-to-person for China. But with her reputation in tatters on the world stage since the Rohingya refugee crisis, Suu Kyi has looked north to tap into economic support which she needs to successfully weather the upcoming national election this November. 

Fittingly, in January, Xi Jinping became the first Chinese president to visit Myanmar in 20 years with 33 bilateral agreements in tow. The Tatmadaw’s stance on China, however, has become increasingly frosty given China’s economic advancement with large infrastructure projects, and its double game on the issue of ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, acting both as conflict mediator and secret arms supplier to rebel groups. Tensions have also led the military’s top brass to suspend two major Chinese infrastructure projects. 

The Tatmadaw have thus turned to India that is equally indifferent about the human rights situation. Since 2017, the military cooperation has been taken to a new level, including joint military training and exercises in the Bay of Bengal were India is keen to contain China’s encroachment. India is concerned about Chinese influence and arms trafficking to insurgents in its unruly north eastern border regions. 

In its effort to diversify its security alliances, Myanmar has also turned to Russia that sold it six Sukhoi Su-30M fighter jets and graced it with a visit by the defense minister in January 2018 during which a deeper military cooperation was agreed upon. [Asia Times 1] [Asia Times 2]

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