Good morning. The U.S. Labor Department Tuesday will publish two months’ worth of data on the U.S. job market. In addition, October retail sales data is due out.

Elsewhere, U.K. joblessness climbed in the three months through October.

For months, a crucial question has been hanging over the economy: What is really going on in the labor market?

On Tuesday, the country will finally start to get some answers.

The Labor Department, after pausing its data collection for weeks during the government shutdown, will publish a report with not one but two months’ worth of data on the health of the U.S. job market.

The report will reveal the unemployment rate for November and some data on hiring in October. That information looks backward, but is expected to fill in the blanks on the status of the job market at a tumultuous time for workers.

The report won’t, however, include the unemployment rate for October. The Labor Department couldn’t conduct the survey needed to calculate that rate while the government was shut down. It will mark the first time in nearly 80 years that the agency is unable to calculate the jobless rate.

October’s retail sales data is due Tuesday, with economists predicting a muted spending report following September’s deceleration.

The release will offer fresh insights into consumer strength heading into the holiday season. But as federal agencies work through delays brought by the recent government shutdown, investors will have to wait for a more current glimpse of holiday demand.

September’s retail sales report was released in late November. The main takeaway was that spending remained resilient in early fall, but growth began to slow, particularly for discretionary purchases.

Economists believe consumers continued to tighten their purse strings in October. (Barrons.com)

Tariffs haven't rocked the economy as much as initially expected, either in terms of inflation or the overall volume of trade, New York Fed President John Williams says at a question-and-answer session in New Jersey. "A lot of people have been surprised by how resilient trade has been," Williams says. He says despite elevated tariffs the economy remains on solid footing, with a decent base-case outlook for inflation, the labor market and growth in 2026. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has recently advocated for a residency requirement for the 12 Fed reserve bank presidents. (Dow Jones Newswires)

U.K. joblessness climbed in the three months through October as signs of a softening labor market gathered pace, raising expectations that the Bank of England will cut its benchmark interest rate at its final meeting of the year this week.

The headline rate of unemployment crept up to 5.1% in August-October, from 5.0% in the three months through September, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That matched expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, last being higher in January 2021 at the height of pandemic-era work stoppages.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions fell 22.6 points to minus 3.9 in December, pointing to contracting activity as it came in below zero. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected the index to decline to a positive reading of 10.0.

Today's employment report gives them a long-awaited look at two months of payroll data and provides a checkup on an already fragile labor market. Fears of artificial intelligence, lingering inflation and President Trump’s trade war have been stifling hiring—and firing—across corporate America.

What questions do you have about the state of the economy and health of the labor market? The Wall Street Journal’s Shelby Holliday, Ashby Jones and Gunjan Banerji will answer select subscriber questions about the economy during a WSJ livestream that kicks off at 8:25 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

The quandary is on display now at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Its chairman, Paul Atkins, is pushing to further ease the reporting obligations for many smaller companies under a 2012 statute called the JOBS Act. The law gives special treatment to “emerging growth companies,” or EGCs, including exemptions from many accounting, auditing and disclosure requirements.

The company has been under scrutiny since authorities last year accused longtime investment chief Kenneth Leech of running a fraudulent trading scheme that favored some clients over others. The bond investor is awaiting trial on several felony fraud charges, and retired this year after being placed on leave.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
11 a.m.: ISM Semiannual Supply Chain Planning Forecast

7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
10 a.m.: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
12:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce discussion

The dollar could fall modestly next year as interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and other developed markets compress, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates two to three times next year while other major central banks hold rates or move more delicately, they say. The path to dollar weakness won't be linear, however. U.S. economic growth could outpace most developed markets. This alongside U.S. asset outperformance will "continue to attract capital inflows to U.S. equities and credit, creating episodes of dollar strength even as the underlying trend tilts toward currency weakness." RBC expects the DXY dollar index to fall to 96.000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. — Renae Dyer

Most investors expect President Trump to nominate White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, Bank of America's December global fund manager survey shows. Some 69% expect Hassett to be nominated, while just 4% mention Fed governor Christopher Waller and 4% expect former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. The survey was conducted before Trump told the WSJ he was leaning towards Hassett or Warsh to lead the Fed. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May.— Renae Dyer

The latest U.K. jobs-market data demonstrate that long-term inflation pressures are becoming more subdued, Investec's Philip Shaw says in a note. The report provides evidence of a further loosening in labor-market conditions, with unemployment reaching the highest level since January 2021. On pay growth, the Bank of England's favored measure--private sector earnings ex-bonuses--slipped back further to 3.9% in the three months to October, from 4.2% in July-September, albeit marginally firmer than consensus, Shaw says. On its own the jobs report doesn't provide a case for a BOE interest-rate cut on Thursday, but longer-term inflation signals indicate a 25 basis-point cut this week looks very likely, he says. — Edward Frankl

• Business activity in Europe and parts of Asia continued to grow as 2025 drew to a close, but at a slower pace as higher barriers to trade and uncertainty about relations between major powers took their toll. The eurozone’s composite purchasing managers index—based on survey responses from around 5,000 manufacturers and service providers—fell to 51.9 in December from 52.8 a month prior, data firm S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank said Tuesday.
• Consumer price growth in Canada held steady last month as consumers paid less for services but faced the sharpest rise in grocery costs since the end of 2023 and prices at the pump declined less sharply.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.