Grasp the pattern, read the trend
Asia in Review
No. 40, October/2020, 1
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
Welcome to this week’s AiR update on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.
I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Cuba, Egypt, Fiji, Taiwan and Uganda celebrate National Day his week.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Law and Politics in East Asia
China makes Xi Jinping’s doctrine mandatory university subject while purge goes on
(dql) With the start of the autumn semester in September, 37 elite universities across China introduced mandatory classes on the thought of President Xi Jinping on “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”. Xi presented his doctrine publicly first at the 2017 Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Congress that became enshrined in the Constitution in 2018. [Nikkei Asian Review] prominent party members, including former estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang and Cai Xia, a former professor at the Central Party School, the Party’s elite cadre training unit in Beijing. The former has been sentenced to 18 years in prison while the latter, currently in American self-exile, has been expelled from the party.
It can also be seen in line with a recent party campaign directed at the law enforcement apparatus to ensure loyalty and discipline from police officers, judges, and state security agents. Widely seen as a purge, the campaign calls on cadres to “drive the blade in” and “scrape poison off the bone,” to expose wayward colleagues. [AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4] [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5] [New York Times]
In a related development, a former senior disciplinary inspector of China’s top anti-corruption agency, the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection, is under investigation accused of “suspected serious violation of laws and party rule”. [Bloomberg]
China: Five-Year Plan endorsed by CCP politburo
(dql) The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party last week endorsed the 14th Five-Year Plan which identifies as its core “innovative, coordinated, green, open, and inclusive growth,” with annual growth set at 6.5%. The plan’s pledged promotion of ecological sustainability as mandatory target, echoes President Xi Jinping’s recent announcement to make China carbon neutral by 2060. The plan is expected to be passed at the Party’s Central Committee meeting end of October. [China.Org] [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]
China: Small protest in Hong Kong on Chinese National Day
(dql) On 1st October, China’s National Day, Hong Kong citizen took to the streets to express their discontent with both the city government and Beijing. However, different from last year, only a small number of protesters faced 6000 police. Some observers attribute the decline on the impact of Beijing’s national security law for Hong Kong claiming that public discontent remains high while voicing it has become too risky. [New York Times] [AiR No. 40, October/2019, 1]
Meanwhile, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, lauding the national security law for having brought back peace and stability to the city, vowed to resist any pressure from hostile foreign governments. [VoA] [South China Morning Post]
In a related development, Chinese authorities in Shenzhen after weeks of silence formally approved the arrest of 12 Hong Kong activists who were detained in August after being caught when they were trying to flee China for Taiwan and charged 10 of them with illegal border transgressing and two of them with helping the others escape Hong Kong. [Aljazeera] [AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]
China: Muslim schoolgirls protest ban on headscarf on Hainan island
(dql) Muslim schoolgirls of the Utsul minority last week staged a protest against an order issued earlier last month under which Utsul girls and women are required to put off their headscarf before entering schools and government offices. [South China Morning Post]
Utsuls are a Chamic-speaking East Asian ethnic group which lives on the island of Hainan, China’s smallest and southernmost province. Under Chinese law, they are subsumed under the Hui, Chinese speaking adherents of Islam and one of the 55 ethnic minorities officially acknowledged by the Chinese government. [France 24] [Bitter Winter]
Japan: Science Council nominees rejected by Prime Minister for political reasons?
(dql) Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in a historic first refused to appoint six nominees for the Science Council of Japan among 105 nominations, proposed by the Council. It is speculated that Suga’s rejections of the nominees is politically motivated as the refused scholars had criticized legislation adopted by the previous Abe administration which Suga served as chief cabinet secretary. [Mainichi]
Suga dismissed these speculations stressing that the issue had nothing to do with academic freedom. However, he remained silent on the reasons for his decision. [Asahi Shimbun]
The Science Council is the representative organization of Japanese scholars and scientists, an independent organization established in 1949 and aiming at promoting and enhancing science to be “reflected in and permeated into administration, industries and people's lives.” It consists of 210 members serving staggered 6-year terms, with half of them appointed by the Prime Minister every three years upon recommendation of the Council. [Science Council of Japan]
South Korea: Prosecutors seek 18 months verdict for former president
(dql) South Korea’s prosecution has demanded a 18s months prison term for former coup leader and President Chun Doo-hwan accusing the 89 years old former general to have posthumously defamed an activist Catholic priest. Chun called the priest who already passed away a “liar" and "Satan" for testifying that troops in helicopters fired machine guns at civilians during the infamous pro-democracy protest against his military regime in Gwangju on 18 May 1980. Official data account for over 200 people dead and 1,800 others wounded.
Chun served as the President of South Korea from 1980 to 1988 leading an authoritarian government. In 1996, he was sentenced to death for both his role in the 1979 military coup and the Gwangju Uprising. His sentence was later reduced to life imprisonment by an appeals court of which we he served two years until President Kim Young-sampardoned him. [KBS]
Taiwan: Constitutional revisions on the island’s political status?
(dql) In a bold move, legislators of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) proposed constitutional changes concerning Taiwan’s political and territorial status of Taiwan to bring the constitution in accordance with what they claim political realities. Taiwan’s constitution has been promulgated in 1947 before the Chinese Kuomintang Party settled to Taiwan in the wake of its defeat against the Chinese Communist Party in 1949. The Kuomintang sponsored Constitution refers to ‘One China’ which Beijing claims to represent.
Among the proposed changes is the removal of the term ‘national unification’ from the preface to the ‘Additional Articles’ of the constitution, which are the revisions and amendments to the original constitution. Furthermore, the proposal seeks to change the wording from "To meet the requisites of the nation prior to national unification," to "To meet the requisites of national development,". Another critical proposal refers to a contested phrase which occurs both in the main text of the Constitution and the Additional Articles, stating "the territory of the Republic of China, defined by its existing national boundaries." The proposed revision would refer Taiwan's national territory as "regions in which the Constitution has validity." [Focus Taiwan 1]
The proposed constitutional amendment would represent a significantly sincere rejection of Beijing’s One China policy possible and comes amid highly strained cross-strait relations between Taipei and Beijing, with official communication channels shut down since independence-leaning President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) assumed power in 2016.
In a related development, Taiwan’s parliament has actually set up an ad hoc committee to review revisions to the constitution. The committee consists of 39 members 22 of them belonging the DPP, 14 to main opposition Kuomintang and the remain three to two minor parties. As a last step to really change the Constitution, the people would have to vote for the change in a referendum. [Focus Taiwan 2]
Mongolia: Anti-Chinese protests
(dql) Ahead of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Mongolia, Mongolian protesters took to streets in Ulaanbaatar to demand the release of ethnic Mongolians arrested in China for criticizing a controversial language policy which was introduced in neighboring Inner Mongolia last month and which reduces Mongolian as instructing language in schools.
Protests, which erupted in Inner Mongolia over this policy, were swiftly suppressed by the Chinese authorities. [The Nation, Pakistan] [AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1] [AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2
Law and Politics in South Asia
Bangladesh: Amnesty International calls on government to release arbitrarily detained migrant workers
(lm) Amnesty International has called on the Bangladesh authorities to immediately release migrant workers who have been arbitrarily detained between July and September following their return to the country. Between said period, Bangladeshi police have jailed at least 370 returning migrant workers under Section 54 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrCP), which allows for arrest based on having “reasonable suspicion” that a person may have been involved in a criminal offence outside the country. The human rights watchdog claims that the arbitrary detention of the workers violates the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which Bangladesh is a state party. [Amnesty International] [The Daily Star]
In the latest of a series of mass arrests of migrant workers for alleged criminal activity abroad, 32 people were detained in Dhaka on 28 September for "tarnishing the image of Bangladesh". The workers had returned to Bangladesh after they had been jailed in Syria while trying to reach Italy and other European countries. In this, as with three other cases [see e.g. Dhaka Tribune 1], no credible evidence of criminal wrongdoing has been shown nor have any charges been brought, according to Amnesty International. [Dhaka Tribune 2]
India: Protests rumble over alleged gang-rape of young woman
(lm) The state government of Uttar Pradesh imposed a ban on gatherings of more than five people and cut off access to a village where a low-caste woman died September 29, two weeks after she was allegedly gang-raped and mutilated by higher caste men. In the light of increasing criticism of law enforcement's actions, India's federal investigators took over the probe after five senior police officers had been suspended over the investigation. [Hindustan Times] [The Straits Times]
On October 3, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, prominent figures within the Congress party, met the victim’s family, a day after they had been prevented from going to the village and detained as they were attempting to make their way to the village on foot. The Congress the following day announced it would stage Satyagraha-inspired (non-violent resistance) sit-ins in the district headquarters of states across the country. [The Guardian] [Deutsche Welle] [Times of India]
Protests began over allegations that police did not take her case seriously because the woman was Dalit, on the lowest rung of India’s Hindu caste hierarchy. India’s 200 million "untouchable" Dalits have long faced caste-based discrimination, and Dalit women are doubly victimized in India, suffering from crimes against lower-caste Indians and against women. Nearly 90 rape cases were recorded every day last year, according to data released on September 29 by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), but vastly more assaults go unreported, according to human rights organizations. [NY Times] [The Straits Times 1] [The Wire]
Outrage was further fueled on September 30 after the woman’s family accused police of forcibly carrying out a cremation – against their wishes and religious custom – raising doubts about their commitment to a proper investigation. Political parties representing the downtrodden Dalit community held small-scale protests in several cities across India on Friday. [The Straits Times 2] [Reuters]
The assault comes months after four men were hanged convicted for the rape and murder of a woman on a bus in Delhi in 2012, a case that sparked protests across India and came to symbolize the nation’s problems with violence against women. [AiR No. 12, March/2020, 4]
Investigations are also ongoing for a second case involving a 22-year-old woman from the Dalit caste who died on September 29, too, after she was allegedly gang-raped.
India: State BJP sets up panel to talk to farmers
(lm) In light of ongoing protests by growers, mainly in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana, the Punjab state unit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) has constituted an eight-member committee to apprise farmers of the benefits of the new legislation, which aims at liberalizing the agriculture sector. Further, a former chief parliamentary secretary (CPS) resigned from the BJP on September 30 in protest over the three laws. [The Tribune] [Deccan Herald]
Addressing farmers in Punjab, Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi on Sunday called the new laws “an attack on our farmers” that would end up destroying the existing structures of food and security for the growers. Apart from extending support to farmers’ protests, the party has already explored ways of stalling the implementation of the laws in state level. The Shiv Sena-led state government of Maharashtra on October 30 withdrew its August order to implement new farms laws, after facing pressure from its allies, the Congress Party and the Nationalist Congress Party. [Hindustan Times] [The Indian Express]
Starting on September 25, growers in India had blocked roads and railway tracks in protest against the new legislation they say will stunt their bargaining power as it allows large retailers to have control over pricing. As part of the new reforms, farmers will be allowed to directly enter into selling agreements with agricultural businesses, supermarket chains, online grocers as well as exporter. Most Indian farmers currently sell the majority of their produce at government-controlled wholesale markets at assured floor prices. [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5].
India: Members of PM Modi’s BJP acquitted over 1992 attack on Babri mosque in Ayodhya
(lm) A special court on September 30 acquitted all 32 people who had been accused of crimes in the 1992 attack and demolition of a 16th-century mosque in the city of Ayodhya. At the time, the mosque's demolition by an armed Hindu mob, which included members of the ruling Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) and the militant Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), led to sectarian riots nationwide, killing nearly 2,000 people. Four senior leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP had been among the defendants. [Deutsche Welle] [The Guardian] [The Straits Times]
Bringing the trial that had languished for 28 years to a close, the judge ruled that there was not enough evidence that the accused had encouraged the mob to demolish the mosque, and the demolition therefore has to be considered as a spontaneous action of “antisocial elements”. Further elaborating on the issue, the judge explained that the audio and video evidence submitted by India's Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) was inadmissible as there was no way to verify their authenticity. [Economic Times India]
This is the second court ruling on the contested Ayodhya site that plays into the Hindu nationalist agenda of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Since the mid-1980s, the BJP had made the reclamation of Ayodhya for Hindus a keystone policy. India's Supreme Court in November 2019 awarded the bitterly contested mosque site to Hindus, which they consider the birthplace of their deity Rama [see AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2]. In August, Modi presided over a ceremony laying the first stone for the construction of the temple and hailed the “dawn of a new era” [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2, AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1].
The verdict proved divisive. The BJP and other organizations of the Sangh Parivar – the collection of Hindu nationalist organizations spawned by the RSS – welcomed Wednesday’s verdict, with senior leader and one of the main accused in the case, L.K. Advani, stating that it vindicated his “personal and BJP’s belief and commitment towards the Ram Janmabhoomi [Rama's birthplace] movement.” Still, some politicians, including Sitaram Yechury from the Communist party of India (Marxist), said it was “a complete travesty of justice”. [The Hindu]
Pakistan the same day strongly condemned the acquittal of all the accused, terming it a “shameful” verdict. [Anadolu Agency]
Nepal: Students protest against alleged Chinese encroachment into Nepalese territory
(lm) Students in Nepalese capital Kathmandu on Monday launched protests in front of the Chinese embassy against the alleged Chinese encroachment into the country’s territory. [Economic Times India]
Last week, an inspection team found that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) had constructed at least nine buildings in Nepal’s northwestern Humla district, which borders the Tibet Autonomous Region. Notwithstanding the findings, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs soon thereafter said that an inter-ministerial team in 2016 had already found the buildings in question to be located approximately one kilometer inside the Chinese territory from the Nepal-China border. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]
Nepal: Political maneuvering between PM Oli and NCP co-chair Dahal continues
(lm) During a meeting on September 27 between the two co-chairs of Nepal’s Communist Party (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Dahal reportedly asked the prime minister to replace all ministers in the cabinet, but Oli rejected the request. After a months-long dispute in the party [see AiR No. 18, May/2020, 1], the two co-chairs last month had agreed on a larger power-sharing deal, which also included a cabinet reshuffle [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. Apart from ministerial posts, the deal reportedly also entails a proper division of various other posts, including ambassadorial and constitutional positions. [The Kathmandu Post]
Recent political maneuverings clearly illustrate that the specter of factionalism continues to haunt the party, which emerged from a post-election merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre. Citing a Standing Committee member, the Himalayan Times reports that the three NCP senior leaders – KP Sharma Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal – would each try to induct their loyalists who could brighten the prospects of their factional interests in local, provincial and parliamentary elections. Accordingly, among potential candidates for a cabinet position are the members of the six-member task force whose suggestions ended the stalemate between the Prime Minister and his party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, albeit temporarily [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. [The Himalayan Times]
Interestingly, the Council of Ministers on October 1 decided to appoint former Finance Minister, Yubaraj Khatiwada, as Nepal’s next Ambassador to the United States. Just two weeks ago, the government decided to appoint Khatiwada as special economic adviser to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. [The Himalayan Times]
Pakistan: Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman to head anti-government alliance
(lm) On October 3, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F, ‘Assembly of Islamic Clerics’) president Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman was unanimously appointed as chief of the newly-formed Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an anti-government alliance launched by 11 opposition parties to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. [The Nation]
Considering that Fazl-ur-Rehman had already showcased his ability to effectively mobilize people to protest against the present Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government [see AiR No. 47, November/2019, 3], PDM leaders agreed that he should lead the movement in the first phase. Member parties further decided that the movement’s three major parties will share the three top offices of the PDM on a rotational basis. That is, the offices of senior vice-president and the general secretary of the PDM will be given to the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). [The New Indian Express]
Rehman's nomination to lead the PDM came only a week before the formal launch of the anti-government campaign, with the movement’s first public meeting scheduled for October 11 in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan.
Pakistan: New criminal case registered against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
(lm) In the run-up to the opposition rally scheduled for October 16, a First Information Report (FIR) was registered on Monday against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and other party leaders for “conspiracy to wage war” against the country and state institutions. Further, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) the same day dismissed a petition seeking a ban on the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader’s speeches. [The Diplomat] [Dawn] [Hindustan Times]
Earlier this week, an Islamabad anti-corruption court ordered the seizure of assets of Sharif for his failure to appear in the Toshakhana graft case, two weeks after the IHC rejected his plea for exemption from court appearance and issued a non-bailable warrant [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. Sharif, who was jailed in a corruption case in 2018, has been residing in London since November last year after a court granted him indefinite bail to seek medical treatment. [The New Indian Express]
While addressing a meeting of his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) through video link the same day, Sharif said he would no longer remain quiet on the "dual standards" of accountability in Pakistan. In remarks that clearly echoed his attack on the country’s powerful military made earlier this month [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4], Sharif added that although Prime Minister Imran Khan is to blame for the country's current state, "it is those who brought him into power who are truly responsible". [BW Businessworld]
In March, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) had accused former president Asif Ali Zardari and Sharif of illegally retaining expensive vehicles gifted to them from foreign rulers and dignitaries instead of depositing them in the Toshakhana (state gift repository) during Zardari’s tenure from 2008 to 2013. The NAB had further maintained that Yousuf Raza Gilani, as then-prime minister, relaxed the procedure for the acceptance and disposal of gifts to the benefit of Zardari and Sharif. Pakistan’s accountability court then indicted Gilani and Zardari on September 9, while Sharif was declared in absentia an absconder over his prolonged absence from the proceedings [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]
Pakistan: Pakistan Bar Council constitutes committee to defend rights of journalists in the country
(lm) Amid increasing incidents of harassment and intimidation of journalists, the Pakistan Bar Council (PBC) – a top body of lawyers – has constituted a Journalistic Defence Committee to provide legal assistance and services to journalists and their elected bodies. The committee was formed in light of laws, in particular the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA), that would make it increasingly difficult for journalists to perform their duties in accordance with the demand of their professional obligations and journalistic practices, the PBC said. [Dawn]
Last week, a local media watchdog had reported that the Cabinet of Prime Minister Imran Khan had not once discussed the issue of violence against journalists since September 2018, notwithstanding the 91 attacks on journalists which were recorded between May 2019 and April 2020. Further, a leading Pakistani journalist had previously revealed that the country’s Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) had registered cases against 49 media persons and social media activists under the PECA [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5].
Moreover, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) has banned the broadcast and rebroadcast of any speech, interview or public address of absconders or proclaimed offenders – just days after former prime minister Nawaz Sharif had offered a direct attack on the country’s powerful military. Previously, Sharif had been declared in absentia an absconder over his prolonged absence in a corruption case. [The New Indian Express]
Sri Lanka: Supreme Court to rule on constitutionality of proposed 20th Constitutional Amendment
(lm) Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court on October 5 concluded hearing from petitioners challenging the 20th Constitutional Amendment that aims to remove the checks and balances on the president. Among the 39 petitioners are the opposition bloc Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), that represents the country's Sri Lankan Tamil minority. Previously, Sri Lanka’s Attorney General (AG) on September 29 day informed the SC that the government would introduce multiple amendments to the proposed legislation. The court was given three weeks to rule on the amendment’s constitutionality, starting on September 22. The confidential decision of the court regarding the constitutionality of the bill will be conveyed to the President and the Speaker of Parliament in due course. [Outlook India] [Bloomberg] [Colombo Page]
Rajapaksa’s government on September 3 had gazetted and soon thereafter tabled in parliament the amendment that would replace the 19th Constitutional Amendment introduced in 2015 by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa`s predecessor, Maithripala Sirisena. Since then, various individuals and organizations have petitioned the SC [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. Noteworthy, the nation's legislative and judicial systems do not accept any court challenges on laws passed by parliament. Hence, most of the petitioners, including the SJB, are rushing to push the justices to rule that the 20th Amendment requires a two thirds majority in the 225-member parliament, in addition to being approved by a national referendum. [The Week] [Colombo Page] [South Florida Times] [Nikkei Asia Review]
Moreover, the nine-member committee appointed by the President’s brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, on September 14, has already started to prepare a draft for a new constitution. The government is therefore expecting to submit the first version to Parliament within six months. [South Asia Monitor]
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Brunei: Charge for frequent cross border travelers
(nd) Brunei started imposing entry charges on travelers – foreign or national – travelling through its border posts by land. A Frequent Commuters Pass (FCP) to ease the financial burden on daily commuters and students was announced. Malaysian media reported on local requests for a government-to-government arrangements to ease the burden of affected Sarawakians, particularly those in Miri, Limbang and Lawas, leaving concrete proposals up to the federal government.
Earlier this year in a letter to the Brunei government, Deputy Chief Minister Datuk Amar Awang Tengah Ali Hasan requested in a letter the postponement of the implementation, which was postponed until October 1. [Borneo Post] [Borneo Bulletin]
Opposition leader Kem Sokha makes moves for potential political comeback
(jn) After exiled politician Sam Rainsy of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) publicly announced his intentions to return to Cambodia from exile in France last week [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5], party leader Kem Sokha was now also seen traveling into the country side to hand out humanitarian assistance and partaking in religious ceremonies despite being under house arrest. That move was noticed by figures close to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) of Prime Minister Hun Sen who suspect Rainsy of plotting a political comeback and testing his level of support. The Cambodia National Rescue Party was banned in 2017 for allegedly planning a coup and its members were persecuted in a still ongoing government crackdown. [The Diplomat] [Khmer Times]
Cambodia: Almost 70 new court cases on the docket against dissidents
(jn) Cambodian courts are currently processing cases against nearly 70 former Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) members for plotting and have already convicted 12 this year for their alleged links to the attempted return of acting party leader Sam Rainsy in November 2019. [Cambojanews]
Cambodia: Head of United Democratic Party arrested
(lf) The Chairman (U Kyaw Myint) of the United Democratic Party (UDP), also called Rose Party, has been arrested after last week media reports about his background made headlines. [See also AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5] The chairman was arrested for being a fugitive from a 10-year sentence.
The UDP is sending 1,130 candidates into the election, making it the second biggest group of candidates following the currently ruling National League for Democracy party. It is unclear how U Kyaw Myint was able to register the UDP in 2010 and for officials to miss his background as a fugitive. [Irrawaddy]
Indonesia: OPM rejects plans to extend special autonomy law
(nd) In Indonesia's easternmost province and Makassar in South Sulawesi protests against prolonging the special autonomy law, which will expire in 2021 have emerged. [See also AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4] Sebby Sambom, spokesman for the armed group Free Papua Movement (OPM), rejected the special status emphasizing that the group sought independence and separation from Indonesia.
In an effort to reform and increase transparency and accountability of spending, President Joko Widodo had asked for an evaluation of the funds provided to Papua and West Papua as part of the special autonomy status. The fund has provided a total of 94.24 trillion Indonesian rupiahs ($6.3 billion) to the Papua and West Papua governments from 2002 to 2020.
The coordinating minister for political, legal and security affairs, Mahfud MD, said the law would remain in effect without an extension, and adding plans to revise the division of Papua into five, rather than the previous two, subregions.
Spokesman Sambom asserted Papuans should sit at the table when central government deals with conflicts and future developments, also there was a lack of protection of human rights and right of Indigenous Papuans. Cahyo Pamungkas, a researcher in the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), reinforced the necessity of a dialogue between central government and Papuans for the special autonomy status to be a successful cooperation.
The fund accounts for about 60% of Papua's provincial budget, a cut or even cancellation of it would affect local government, regional autonomy observer Djohermansyah Djohan highlighted, despite ambiguous improvements in the welfare, education and health of indigenous Papuans due to mismanagement of special autonomy funds. Djohan advertised improvements to the fund transfer model, and supervision and accountability. [Anadolu Agency]
Indonesia: Papua is part of Indonesia, MP says
(nd) With reemerging violence and the commemoration day for Papua’s separatist groups – December 1 – approaching, Coordinating Minister of Politics, Law, and Security Affairs Mahfud MD said that Papuan attempts to declare independence will be fought by the government.
“Papua’s unity, either the Papua Province or West Papua with the unitary state of the republic of Indonesia [NKRI] is final. There are no other paths, independence is non-negotiable,” Mahfud said. The MP said it was unknown, whether that spark in separatism was provoked by foreign nationals or has come from within the region. [Tempco] [See also AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5] [AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]
Indonesia: Supreme Court to shorten graft sentence for former MP
(nd) After a recent case review, the Supreme Court (SC) cut the sentence of former Democratic Party chair Anas Urbaningrum to eight from initial 14 years, following a sentence by Jakarta Corruption Court in 2014 and a SC decision in 2015. The successful reasoning for the review was a judicial error, namely convicting Anas under the wrong article of the 2001 Corruption Law.
Among other officials, Anas was involved in a major corruption scandal surrounding the development of the Hambalang Sports Complex in Bogor, West Java. With costs of about Rp 2.5 trillion, president Joko Widodo promised to recoup resources lost to corruption and the continuation of the construction in 2016, which it has not ever since.
Critics emphasized the leniency of the court’s decision, which they say poses a big threat to efforts to reduce corruption in Indonesia, for Anas was the 23rd graft convict to be granted leniency by the Supreme Court in the past year. [Jakarta Post 1] [Jakarta Post 2]
Indonesia: Activists and historians to uncover details about 1965 coup
(nd) With victims and their relatives still receiving medical rehabilitation support from the Witness and Victim Protection Agency (LPSK) the topic remains a public issue. After the assassination of six military generals in an alleged coup attempt on September 30, 1965, incidents of violence against civilians occurred between 1965 and 1966. The coup was blamed on the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) which was banned in 1966. The fear of communism in Indonesia, Amnesty International Indonesia executive director Usman Hamid said, originated from anti-PKI propaganda and the “manipulation of history” under president Soeharto, who reigned from 1967 to 1998, including a movie called Pengkhianatan G30S/PKI (Betrayal of the Communist) depicting vicious PKI members assassinating generals.
Historians are still working on uncovering what happened in 1965 and getting better access to materials respectively identifying lack thereof. Dutch historian Grace Leksana in her research on a neighborhood in southern Malang, East Java, identified violent actions in the village and that several residents had helped the military screen civilians allegedly affiliated with the communist party after a promise to receive prominent positions in local administrations if they assisted. Canadian historian John Roosa of British Columbia University in Canada also found that many civilians were subject to forced disappearances and killings. His book “Pretext for mass murder: The September 30th movement and Suharto’s coup d’etat in Indonesia” was banned by the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) in 2009.
Coordinating Social, Political and Legal Affairs Minister Mahfud MD said the government had never forced the public to believe the propaganda in the movie, never having determined which version of the 1965 tragedy the public should believe.
In 2012, an investigation by the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) found that gross human rights violation had taken place, which call for prosecution of military officials; the AGO prosecutors reiterated there was insufficient evidence. [Jakarta Post]
Indonesia: New party declared by PAN founder
(nd/lf) Amien Rais, former patron of the National Mandate Party (PAN), an Islam-based political party holding 48 seats in the 575-member People's Representative Council, and staunch critic of President Joko Widodo, founded a new party called Partai Ummat, or the Ummah Party, following an internal struggle within PAN. Amien vowed his new party will work to uphold Pancasila, the 1945 Constitution, and all universal democratic rules, and focus on political, economic, social, legal and human rights. [Jakarta Post] [Republika in Indonesian] [Kompas in Indonesian]
Amien is a political heavyweight in Indonesia. From 1995 to 2000, he was the leader of Muhammadiyah, one of the two biggest Muslim organizations in Indonesia with 50 million members. He was also a central figure in the 1998 reform movement that led to the fall of former president Soeharto, who ruled Indonesia for 30 years from 1968 to 1998.
Indonesia: KAMI movement not to disrupt nation’s stability
(nd) Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko has warned the Save Indonesia Action Coalition (KAMI) not to disrupt political stability, alleging its members of having “certain interests" in forming the group.
The self-attributed moral movement was founded August 18, 2020 with the intention to prevent any deviations from Pancasila, Indonesia’s founding principles, and to uphold the will of the people, what the House of Representatives allegedly has failed to do. The group’s founders include prominent government critics such as Rachmawati Soekarnoputri, a daughter of Indonesia’s first president Soekarno, former coordinating maritime affairs minister Rizal Ramli, former Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gen. (ret.) Gatot Nurmantyo and Islam Defenders Front (FPI) chairman Sobri Lubis.
A gathering organized by KAMI in Surabaya, East Java, was dispersed by the police following a public protest, reportedly calling the organization “dangerous”. Authorities were citing the Covid-19 situation for their action. Gatot Nurmantyo, member of the KAMI executive committee, suspected that the public protest was orchestrated “by someone”. [Jakarta Post 1] [Jakarta Post 2]
Indonesia: Covid-19 stimulus package to be passed despite rising concerns
(nd) A new legislation to stimulate corona-hit economy by reducing regulations on businesses to attract investment and strengthen the creation of new jobs, backed by president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, shall be passed next Friday before Parliament ends its session, according to its supporters. Additionally, they say the package would simplify and accelerate investment by eliminating permit requirements.
Opponents criticize the stimulus package undermines worker protections and permits destruction of the country’s rainforests. The labor coalition emphasized the bill leads to reduced severance pay for laid off personnel, cuts in the amount of mandatory leave, longer work hours and an increased use of contract and part-time workers to substitute full-time employees, overall worsening work conditions and security. Environmentalists point to the elimination of environmental reviews for many new projects, which could lead to the destruction of primary rainforests, whose carbon reducing qualities form an integral part of fighting climate change. The lack of environmental protection could also defer investors – specifically from Europe – used to high levels of environmental standards, they add.
The bill would revise 76 laws, including the 2003 Law on Labor, 2009 Law on Tax General Procedures and Provisions, the 2008 Law on Income Tax, the 2009 Law on Value Added Tax, and Tax on Luxury Goods Sale Tax, and the 2017 Law on Indonesian Migrant Workers Protection.
After an initial slow reaction, the government lifted restrictions early to help the economy, with now having the highest death toll – nearly 11,000 - in Southeast Asia and the danger of a collapse of the health care system with almost 300,000 confirmed cases. The bill is consistent with Jokowi’s focus, which, besides infrastructure, lies in economic development, and related goals of reducing poverty, improving nutrition, and raising education levels, which were threatened by recent economic developments. [New York Times 1] [Jakarta Globe]
In the meantime, police uttered they will not issue a rally permit for a protest planned 6-8 October. In line with enforcing the Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) to contain Covid-19, mass gatherings are prohibited except if a permit is sought. [Tempo] The initially planned hearing for the end of the week was pushed forward to Monday and the bill accepted by seven of nine political parties. [New York Times 2]
Indonesia: President justifying his reaction to the pandemic
(nd) In a reaction towards ongoing criticism on his Covid-19 response, Indonesian president Joko „Jokowi“ Widodo defended his decision not to impose local or regional lock-downs despite a surge in numbers for not hurting people's livelihood. Stemming from volunteer groups and on social media, criticism rose for not having spent enough to fight the pandemic and more broadly prioritizing economy over health. The president urged the population to complain or provide suggestions to the government rather than engaging in „polemics“.
In a worst-case forecast by the government, Indonesia's economy will contract by 1.7% in 2020, with the percentage being lower than that of experts. This will be the first recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. [Channel News Asia]
Laos: Tightening grip on social media platforms
(py) Authorities have urged parties wanting to operate on social media channels to register their platforms. According to the latest notice by the Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism’s office, publishing or circulating information to the public via social media without the permission is prohibited. Perpetrators can be charged in line with relevant provisions of law. This new notice includes individuals, legal bodies, state and private sectors. [Vientiane Times]
Criticism of governments is punishable by law in Laos. In 2018, a female Lao environmentalist raising awareness and funds to help the flood victims found herself arrested and charged under article 117 of the Lao criminal code, for spreading “anti-state” propaganda. [Bangkok Post] Though Laos has made progress in the promotion of human rights, no independent mechanism or body has been established to safeguard human rights in the country. [Human Rights Asean]
Malaysia: Possible economic repercussions of political turmoil
(nd) After last week’s announcement by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to form a new government, the decision is on hold with the king currently hospitalized. [See also Air No. 39, September/2020, 5] In the meantime, the king was discharged. The king, despite his mainly ceremonial role, can dissolve parliament and trigger elections upon appointing a new prime minister in charge of parliamentary majority. While the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) said “many" in the party supported Anwar, no other party voices its support.
Given this constant political uncertainty, Malaysia is in risk of delaying and even loosing new investments, analysts and business groups said. The ongoing policy disruption stalls reforms and Malaysia’s log-term growth, especially with more attractive neighbors to compete with in the wake of investors trying to diversify manufacturing away from China. With Vietnam and Indonesia offering lower costs and Singapore more stability, Malaysia’s constant power struggles lower investor trust. [Jakarta Post 1] [Jakarta Post 2]
Myanmar’s Election app launched and under criticism
(lf) The Union Election Commission (UEC) has launched an app, which provides data on candidates and the electoral procedures. The app, called mVoter2020, runs in Burmese. Users can search by constituency for political parties, as well as access information about voting guidelines. The information and data displayed is fed by the UEC.
The app was developed in cooperation between the UEC, the Asia Foundation, as well as the EU funded Democracy and Electoral Assistance Organization. The 2015 version received 12 million enquires during the pre-election period. The app is expected to have even more enquires this election season, due to a rise of internet users from 7 million in 2015 to 22 million in 2020. [Irrawaddy]
However, activists, including the Justice for Myanmar organization have criticized the app for incited and entrenching religious and ethnic divides. The group states that the app predominately features the ethnicity and religion of the candidates, as well as their parents. Rather than providing much needed information to the public, during the difficult circumstances of running an election during a Pandemic, the app risks re-inflaming ethnic and religious nationalism. [The Diplomat]
Myanmar: Foreign reporters likely excluded from reporting on the elections
(lf) Due to government regulations, it currently seems that foreign reporters will be excluded from reporting about the election coming November. Since March, all international flights have been banned, the visa application and logistics for entering has become more complicated hindering many foreigners, including aid workers and cooperate executives from entering the country. Reporters are not the only ones affected by the regulations. The Carter Institute had to hire national teams to monitor the elections, while the EU has completely abandoned their monitoring campaign.
Journalists and reporters play an important role in ensuring the integrity of an election. The recent difficulties for the monitoring teams have made that process become more difficult. Activists have accused the current government of using the pandemic to limit press freedom. For that, they allude to travel restrictions not only applying to international journalist, but to non-state media journalists as well. Currently, the only journalist allowed to freely travel are reporters from the state-owned media. [MMTimes]
New UN special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar
(lf) Myanmar has received a new special Rapporteur on Human Rights, former member of the US House of Representatives Thomas Andrews. The American follows the South Korean Yanghee Lee, who in 2017 had been banned from entering Myanmar under the accusation of lacking impartiality. It is unclear if Andrews will receive a visa to enter the country for his position as senior advisor to the organisation Fortify Rights is seen problematic.
Fortify Rights, in conjunction with the New York Times, published a statement on September 9, of two soldiers from Myanmar claiming they carried out murders of Rohingyas under military order. The video, which was released by the organisation shows private details of the soldiers and had been made by the Arakan Army (AA). Critiques accuse that the publication could endanger the soldiers, who are currently suspected to be in The Hague, as well as their family members. More importantly, however, it raises questions about the connections between Fortify Rights and the AA.
Fortify Rights has been accused by foreigners and independent critics who have been working on issues of human rights in Myanmar, to alter information for the plight of refugees. For example, in 2017, footage of soldiers in civilian clothing beating up men was published, stating the video had been taken during the recent events. However, the footage turned out to be two years old. This connection might proof the relationship between the new Special Rapporteur and Myanmar to start on a rocky ground. [Irrawaddy] [Asia Times]
Chief Minister of Kayah State removed from office
(lf) President U Win Myint has removed Chief Minister of Kayah state L Phaung Sho through an impeachment by parliament. The minister was accused of misappropriating funds and having leased out land plots to business despite their previous assignment to public use. The minister is the first chief minister impeached by a state parliament under constitutional procedure. The process requires two thirds of the regional parliament to vote in favor of the motion. [Irrawaddy]
Oversea voting for Myanmar’s election
(lf) As oversea early voting starts, several Myanmar nationals have not received a ballot, despite being on the list of the Union Election Commission (UEC). In Singapore, where 32% of all oversea voters are located 32,000 voters will cast an early vote from October 1st until October 18th, however 2,000 have not received their ballots. 8,000 Myanmar nationals located in Singapore did not make it on the list of the UEC for several early voting requests have gone missing or were sent to wrong addresses. In addition, around 8,000 applications for early voting have been denied from voting. The missing ballots have cause great uncertainty with the oversea voters.
In Bangkok, oversea voting started October 3rd and lasts until October 13th, in Northern Thailand voting will start October 10th and lasts until October 13th. In Thailand, 40,000 people are expected to cast their vote for the November 9th election. [Irrawaddy]
Myanmar: Clashes between the Tatmadaw and ethnic army
(lf) The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has shelled a battalion of Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) in Shan state. While no one was hurt in the attack, it is the first attack on a military outpost by the TNLA in some time. The TNLA operated together with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). According to the TNLA the attacks on the outpost were in retaliation for attacks by Myanmar’s Army in mountains in Shan State (Manbon Mountains) earlier last week. The second ceasefire extension until 31 October, in order to contain the Covid-19 pandemic and increase trust with the ethnically armed groups for the current peace negotiations, excludes Rakhine state and the townships of Paletwa in Chin state, defying calls from humanitarian groups for a ceasefire in the two regions. [MMTimes]
The TNLA, the MNDAA and the Arakan Army in Rakhine state have allied, a so-called Brotherhood alliance, which has executed several attacks on army troops in recent time. China’s mediation in peace negotiations between the brotherhood and the Tatmadaw have so far been unsuccessful. [Irrawaddy]
Students arrested over protesting conflict in Western Rakhine
(lf) Myanmar has arrested 14 students for participating in protests against the violent conflict in Western Rakhine. 30 more students have gone into hiding to avoid being arrested by authorities. For the last month, students have gathered across the country protesting in small groups. In addition, students have spread leaflets calling for democratic reform. The students have been arrested for breaching Myanmar’s Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Possession Act.
For the past year, the ethnic Arakan Army and Myanmar’s army have been engaged in violent conflict, subsequently killing up to 300 civilians and displacing 220,000 civilians from Rakhine and neighbouring Chin state. Students are protesting the conflict and are calling for a peace process in the conflict-battled country. [The Diplomat]
Philippines: Body camera for policy officers
(nd) Following the presentation of the 2021 budget, the Philippine National Police (PNP) announced that 2,600 body cameras shall soon be distributed to the police. It remained unclear how and which police stations will be prioritized. Body cameras are seen as deterrence to use police abuse. Yet, policemen are not required to use the cameras during the controversial anti-drug operations but only “encouraged”. The topic of body cameras rose in September 2017, when a CCTV camera recorded what allegedly were Caloocan cops dragging a teenager in an alley before killing him. A first implementation delay occurred due to a lack of budget, in 2018 it was further delayed due to a disqualified bidder following an alleged bribery attempt by policemen. [Rappler]
Philippines: PhilHealth Chief against privatization
(nd) The chief of allegedly corruption-riddled national healthcare insurer PhilHealth opposed plans backed by president Rodrigo Duterte to privatize the corporation. He claimed the members would have no coverage and the message sent would be that public officials cannot be trusted. Representative Stella Quimbo (Marikina) who has filed the bill allowing for its privatization denied that. Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra emphasized the investigation task force only recommended a reorganization. Labor coalition Nagkaisa warned against the privatizing, claiming this step would only reverse the gains from the government’s universal health care program. Accusations of rampant corruption in the government-controlled national health insurer have been voiced since 2012. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed the first batch of criminal complaints against officials of PhilHealth in connection with fund irregularities. [See also AiR No. 37, September 2020, 3] [Philstar] [Manila Bulletin]
Philippines: House speakership debate resolved
(nd) Alan Peter Cayetano’s offer to resign as Speaker was rejected by the House of Representatives, delaying deliberations on the budget 2021. Initially, president Rodrigo Duterte brokered a gentleman’s agreement involving the position of the speakership, which was contested by Cayetano, Lord Allan Velasco, and incumbent Majority Leader and Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez. Under the agreement, Cayetano was given the first 15 months, Velasco was to serve the remaining 21 months. The recently agreed upon hand-over date was October 14, after the pass of the budget 2021. [Manila Bulletin 1] [Manila Times 1] [Manila Times 2] [Manila Bulletin 2]
Philippines: DOJ personnel to apply for judge position
(nd) Assistant Secretary Neal Vincent Bainto, deputy spokesperson of the Department of Justice (DOJ), is applying to be a judge at a metropolitan trial court (MeTC) in the National Capital Judicial Region, according to the Judicial and Bar Council (JBC).
If his application is successful, his departure from DOJ will be the second, following the sudden resignation of Undersecretary Markk Perete over “serious and personal reasons”. [GMA Network]
Singapore: Opposition politician Lim arrested
(nd) Opposition politician and chief of People’s Voice party Lim Tean was arrested for an alleged offence of criminal breach of trust. Allegedly, the lawyer misappropriated a sum of money awarded to his client as damages by the court. Additionally, Lim was accused of unlawful stalking by a former employee. Lim was arrested after not complying with police notice to come for an interview. Lim and his lawyer claim the arrest is motivated politically, since Lim represents Leong Sze Hian in the defamation suit filed by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
In December 2018, blogger Leong shared the article "Breaking News: Singapore Lee Hsien Loong Becomes 1MDB's Key Investigation Target - Najib Signed Several Unfair Agreements With Hsien Loong In Exchange for Money Laundering", alleging that PM Lee had helped former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak to launder money. [Malay Mail][ Channel News Asia]
Thailand: Higher costs for high-speed rail
(nd) The Thai government announced that another THB 12 billion is needed for the first phase of the high-speed rail from Bangkok to Korat, amounting to THB 50.6 billion in total. The overall budget for the 617-kilometer line that will eventually reach Nong Khai on the border with Laos is THB179 billion (US$5.7 billion). Funds were approved in 2017, following an agreement with China, which is building the railway and extending loans. Following the agreement, three Chinese state enterprises -- the National Development and Reform Commission of China, China Railway International and China Railway Design Corporation — are hired, who are expected to design the high-speed train and related systems, train the staff and build the system. The high-speed rail is expected to be completed in 2025.
The line is an important part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and it is assumed that it will eventually extend onward to the city of Nong Khai, across the Mekong River from Lao capital Vientiane. In Laos, there is a railway project under construction connecting the capital with China’s Yunnan province, linking it to the Chinese national high-speed rail network.
Last week, the rail base for the initial segment was completed and the project handed over to the State Railway of Thailand (SRT), which will work with the three Chinese firms to build the railway. Having been postponed earlier, Covid-19 repercussions on Thai economy might cause further delays: According to an economic outlook published by the World Bank, Thailand is facing an economic contraction of between 8.3 and 10.4 percent in 2020 – the worst of any nation in Southeast Asia. Additionally, the possibility for Chinese engineers and laborers to enter Thailand is in jeopardy. [Coconuts Bangkok] [Bangkok Post] [The Diplomat]
Thailand: Pheu Thai MP ban upheld
(nd) The Supreme Court's Election Division upheld the Election Commission’s (EC) decision to withdraw MP status of Pheu Thai candidate Surapol Kietchaiyakorn. The eight-time Chiang Mai MP retained his seat with 52,165 votes in last year's general election but was later disqualified by the EC, for breaching the election law by giving 2,000 baht and a clock to a monk. [Bangkok Post]
Thailand: Reshuffle in Pheu Thai leadership
(nd) Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, ex-wife of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has become de facto leader of Pheu Thai party. Recently resigned party leader Sompong Amornvivat is expected to be reinstated as the leader on the party’s new executive board, but it is Khunying Potjaman who will actually be in charge, without assuming any formal party position. The mission is to end rifts among party factions and make defectors work together again. Working together with Khunying Potjaman is Yaowapa Wongsawat, younger sister of Thaksin and former Chiang Mai MP.
Further, the plan is said to work with a think-tank, and reinstall high-calibre politicians, for example Pheu Thai secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai plus Prommin Lertsuridej and Surapong Suebwonglee, both former executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT). Also, earlier this year, these politicians – former student activists who took part in the October 14, 1973 uprising against dictatorship, surviving the October 6, 1976 Thammasat massacre – formed a breakaway fraction of Pheu Thai, called "Care" (Creative, Action, Revival and People Empowerment), rumored to turn into a new political party.
These “October People” are supporters of the ongoing student protests and therefore said to be able to attract young voters away from Kao Klai (Move) Party. Kao Klai is the successor to the Future Forward Party, which was disbanded for illegal party funding, and summons its support mostly from young voters. Yet, Pheu Thai would not support the student’s constitutional reform demands, emphasizing Chapters 1 and 2 are not to be touched.
Other personnel include former key TRT figure and former Minister of Transport Pongsak Ruktapongpisal and Pichai Naripthaphan, energy minister during the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, mounting to a total of 20-24 new executives. [Bangkok Post] [Chiangrai Times] [Thai PBS]
Thailand: Seven more protesters charged; charter amendment more lengthy
(nd) Another seven protesters were charged after protesting against human rights lawyer Anon Nampa’s arrest in front of Bangkhen Police Station on 7 August. They were charged with staging a public gathering without informing the police, unauthorized use of sound amplifiers and blocking traffic. [Prachathai]
Meanwhile, a senior member of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) forecasted the charter amendment process to be longer in duration as proposed. In support, the MP cited a Constitutional Court's ruling in a similar case as precedent and argued that a referendum would be needed if there was a proposal to amend the entire constitution.
On the contrary, Paiboon Nititawan, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee tasked with the review of the 2017 Constitution, made a pledge to finish the task within the given 30 days. Technically, the committee could ask for another 60 days, and Parliament could delay submitting the matter to a debate for yet another 12 months.
Six charter amendment motions were submitted to Parliament by government and opposition parties. Among those, two proposed by government coalition parties and five opposition parties aim at amending Article 256 of the Constitution to set up a Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) for a new constitution. Four others proposed by opposition parties, including Kao Klai (Move Forward), aim to reduce the power of military-appointed senators (Articles 270, 271 and 272), revoke Article 279, which legalizes all NCPO executive orders, and change the electoral system.
The seventh proposed charter amendment, the only motion made through a citizen campaign, was submitted by iLaw, a legal reform advocacy group, and it is regarded as the most radical. Inter alia, the draft aims to replace the junta-appointed senate with an elected senate, and a future Prime Minister to be an elected MP.
The committee cannot yet deliberate on their draft, due to a 45-day process of vetting the authenticity and eligibility of the 100,732 people who made the proposed amendment still being in process. [Bangkok Post 1] [Khaosod] [Thai PBS]
Meanwhile, the two co-leaders of the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration (UFTD), Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak and Panusaya "Rung" Sithijirawattanakul, and human rights lawyer Arnon Nampa will not be allowed to speak during the university's upcoming forum marking the 44th anniversary of the Oct 6, 1976 Thammasat University massacre. [Bangkok Post 2]
Thailand: New finance minister appointed
(nd) Arkhom Termpittayapaisith was appointed new finance minister after the sudden resignation of his predecessor Predee Daochai on September 1. Mr Arkhom studied economics at Thammasat University (1977) and Williams College in Massachusetts, US (1983). He formerly was a secretary-general at National and Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). After the 2014 military coup, Mr. Arkhom became member of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), resigning one year later to assume the position of transport minister. [Bangkok Post]
Thailand’s household debt alarming
(py) According to the Bank of Thailand, household debt in the second quarter of 2020 has risen to 83.8% per GDP representing the all-time highest in 18 years. GDP contraction was cited as the main reason for the rising household debt per GDP. The Debt service suspension introduced during the outbreak of Covid-19 also left the principal amount undeclined. According to TMB Analytics, around 34% of Thai household debt is used for loans for personal consumption. On the contrary, other countries with high household debt such as Singapore and the United Kingdom only have 3 to 4 % in loans for personal consumption. Though limited access to business loans for Thai SMEs might also contribute to the high ratio of loans for personal consumption, the proportion is yet undeniably worrisome. Kasikorn Research Center predicted that the current economy might force vulnerable households to incur further debt for personal consumption. Although financial institutions like the Bank of Thailand have been promoting financial literacy, some still doubt whether the government is seeing the big picture and possessing the right information to handle the situation. [The Standard, in Thai]
Vietnamese University professor arrested for ‘Slandering’ local Communist party chief
(jn) Police in Vietnam arrested a Ho Chi Minh City university professor on Wednesday on charges of slandering a local Communist Party official by accusing him of plagiarizing the thesis he wrote for his doctoral degree, according to state media reports. Pham Dinh Quy, a university lecturer, was formally arrested on Sept. 30 under Article 156 of Vietnam’s Penal Code after publishing articles online and in print criticizing Dak Lak province party chief Bui Van Cuong. [Radio Free Asia]
Vietnam: Defendants in Dong Tam trial file appeal
(jn) Five defendants who had been convicted for their involvement in a deadly land-rights clash in January at the Dong Tam commune [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3] filed appeals with a Hanoi court last week for what they deem too harsh sentences for first time offenders. Two brothers were sentenced to death last month after being charged with murder in the deaths of three police officers who were killed in the January clash. [Radio Free Asia]
Vietnam eyes 6.5% growth in five-year plan
(jn) According to a draft five-year economic plan that is envisaged to be passed at the coming Communist Party convention in January, Vietnam will aspire an average GDP growth of 6.5% to 7% for 2021-2025, while boosting per capita GDP from about $2.800 to $4.700. [Asia Nikkei Review]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
China: Space program advancing
(dql) Against the background of a new wave of space exploration internationally, China is working on rockets capable of sending astronauts to land on the moon as evidenced by the presentation of a new launch vehicle at the 2020 China Space Conference in Fuzhou last month.
With no date for a test flight or a potential lunar landing announced yet, experts see Chinese not yet ready to send astronauts to the moon though, citing the country’s space technology currently not able to meet requirements for moon landing. [Space.com]
For a brief account of the latest developments in China’s space capabilities with a focus on the recent launch of a reusable military spacecraft and what that means for the US Space Force, see Malcolm Davis and Charlie Lyons Jones in [Australian Strategic Policy Institute: The Strategist].
China-US security relations: US reports urge tougher China policy
(dql) The Intelligence Committee of the US House of Representatives last week released a report that claims the “United States’ intelligence community has not sufficiently adapted to a changing geopolitical and technological environment increasingly shaped by a rising China.” It, therefore, demands a “significant realignment of resources,” warning that otherwise the US “will fail to achieve the outcomes required to enable continued U.S. competition with China on the global stage for decades to come, and to protect the U.S. health and security.” [House of Representative, USA]
Another report of the China Task Force of Republican members of the House of Representatives dismisses the strategy of engagement with China as it was pursued since both countries established diplomatic ties in 1979 as a failure. The GOP’s ‘task force’ calls for more than 400 changes to the existing US China policy and warns that “leniency and accommodation of the CCP and its oppressive agenda is no longer an option.” [Scribd]
China-USA diplomatic relations: Beijing mobilizes 26 countries to condemn US
(dql) On behalf of 26 countries, Beijing on Monday issued a joint statement at the General Debate of the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly criticizing the USA and other Western countries for hindering a global response to the pandemic by having imposed sanctions on countries “contrary to the purpose and principles of the UN Charter and international law, multilateralism and the basic norms of international relations." The statement demanded the sanctions to be immediately lifted.
Asian countries backing this statement include Cambodia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Iran, Laos, Myanmar, and Pakistan. Other countries include Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Belarus, Burundi, Cameroon, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Namibia, Nicaragua, Palestine, Russia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, South Sudan, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. [Channel News Asia]
Among these countries Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela are currently facing “unilateral coercive measures” of the USA, other Western states, and the European Union.
China-US military relations: Pentagon to deploy drones for maritime operation to Southeast Asia
(dql) The US Department of Defense announced that it is reprogramming “hunter-killer” drones, namely its MQ-9 Reapers, for maritime operations in Southeast Asia. MQ-9 Reapers possess a 40-hour endurance with a maximum altitude of 40,000 feet and a payload capacity up to 2.5 tons allowing to equip them with air to surface missiles and laser-guided bombs. The Reapers have been earlier used in Africa, Afghanistan, and Iraq where Iranian Al-Quds Brigade Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Baghdad last January by such a drone. [Express]
Prior to the announcement, related exercises have been conducted in September with the Navy’s Third Fleet, which deploys carrier strike groups, submarines, and other sea vessels and aircraft to the Eastern Pacific, along with Air Force C-130s, and special warfare and Marine Corps personnel. [Air Force Magazine]
While China’s Foreign Ministry lodged "stern representations" with the US over the move, Chinese state-run media newspaper Global Times downplays the threats posed by the drones and cites analysts confirming that the “MQ-9 is not worth worrying about for China,” calling the deployment decision a “ploy […] to make this ‘obsolete’ drone look useful again.” [Global Times]
In a related development, India has revealed that it has ordered six US-made MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones to be deployed over the next few months. The six drones are part of a 3 billion USD order whose remainder of 24 drones Delhi will purchase over the next few years. [EurAsian Times]
Meanwhile, Iran presented itself as a drone-power in an exhibition last week showcasing various types of its drones, among them the Shahed 129 used for airstrikes in the Syrian Civil War and for border patrol on the country’s eastern border. [The Jerusalem Post]
For a brief historical account on Iran as a drone-power see Thomas Harding in [The National] who suggests that “[t]hrough luck, espionage and clever engineering,” the country has become an acknowledged player in unmanned warfare, with a drone industry second only to Israel in the Middle East.
China-Canada relations: Canadian warship sails through Taiwan Strait
(dql) A Canadian warship has sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, in a latest sign of deteriorating Sino-Canadian relations. Relations between Beijing and Canada begun to sour with the arrest of the chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, Meng Wanzhou, in late 2018 based on a warrant from the US, which accuses her of bank fraud for misleading HSBC about Huawei’s business dealings in Iran and causing the bank to break U.S. sanctions law. Soon after Meng’s detention, China arrested Canadian citizens Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, charging them with espionage. [Reuters]
China-Japan relations: Tokyo protests Chinese digital museum of disputed East China See islands
(dql) China reassured its claims to the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea by launching an online “museum” showcasing material to “help visitors understanding why China has indisputable sovereign rights over the territory.” [Global Times]
Diaoyu Islands or Senkaku islands in Japanese refer to a group of uninhabited islands that are administered by Japan but claimed by both countries. The dispute increased to strain Sino-Japanese relations after Tokyo bought the islands from a private owner in September 2012. Now, Japan has lodged a diplomatic protest against the Chinese claims. [The Star Online] [Japan News]
Top diplomats from 'Quad' countries meet in Tokyo
(lm) Japan is hosting a meeting of the foreign ministers of the United States, India, Australia, and Japan, in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) seen as a counter to China’s influence in the region. The forum brings together Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to discuss issues including the coronavirus pandemic and the regional situation. [The Japan Times]
In the run-up to the ministerial meeting, a senior US state department official dismissed talk of formalizing the association, saying the United States wanted to strengthen existing regional architectures, not create new ones. Speculation about Washington’s interest to explore a new framework for Indo-Pacific cooperation, dubbed the “Quad Plus”, received a boost in September, when US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said that the US was aiming to “formalize” the groupings’ military, economic and development cooperation. Though cautioning visions of an Indo-Pacific NATO, at that time, Biegun emphasized that the format shall remain open for other countries to join but “align in a more structured manner” [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]. [Hindustan Times]
The Quad meeting comes as the trade ministers of Japan, India and Australia agreed this month to work toward a “Supply Chain Resilience Initiative” in the Indo-Pacific region, following reports that the three nations are looking to work together to secure supply chains and reduce dependence on China [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4].
In August, India had made public its intentions to invite the Australian Navy to join the annual instalment of the Malabar exercise, completing the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]. A formal invitation to Australia to join the exercises is still pending.
Japan’s Defense Ministry requests record high budget
(dql) Japan's Defense Ministry revealed its draft budget for the next fiscal year starting April 2021, with a record total spending of nearly 52 billion USD, an increase of over 8% compared with the 2020 budget. The Ministry justified its request by the need to boost the country's military capacity to respond to new threats, including cyber, space and electromagnetic warfare. [Defense News]
New spending includes, according the draft, 690 million USD for the expansion of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces' space unit and Space Situational Awareness surveillance system, as well as 340 million USD for the creation of its cyberspace defense unit and electromagnetic warfare capabilities. [CNN]
For details on the proposed spending see Mari Yamaguchi in [Defense News].
In a related development, Japan's Defense Ministry announced plans to deploy new F-35A state-of-the-art stealth fighters to Air Self-Defense Force bases other than the current host, the Misawa base in Aomori Prefecture in northeastern Japan. In this context, the Ministry has requested budget of nearly 400 million USD in fiscal 2021 to procure four F-35As in fiscal 2025. [Nippon]
The announcement comes at a time when Japan is preparing for difficult negations with the US over Tokyo's share of the cost of hosting around 54,000 American troops in Japan for the next five-year period beginning with fiscal 2021. The Trump administration is requesting 8 billion USD annually for the presence, a massive increase from 1.8 billion USD a year under the current agreement. The twice-a-decade negotiations are scheduled for this week. [Mainichi] [Nikkei Asian Review]
Japan-France relations: Deepening relations
(dql) During a meeting last week in Paris, Japanese and French Foreign Ministers Toshimitsu Motegi and Jean-Yves Le Drian agreed to strengthen cooperation in response to the global coronavirus pandemic and over maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region. The latter includes close cooperation in monitoring activities at sea as part of efforts to prevent North Korean vessels from engaging in illicit ship-to-ship cargo transfers to circumvent U.N. sanctions imposed over the country’s missile and nuclear programs. The agreement is a latest sign of increasingly close security ties between Japan and France, reflected in particular by joint military exercises at sea and regular bilateral foreign and defense ministers' talks. [Kyodo News]
France, which possesses territories in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and maintains a military base in New Caledonia, is one of two European countries next to Germany which Motegi’s is visiting on his tour to Europe before going to the Middle East, with a focus on courting countries of these regions for Japan’s "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy. France last year and Germany recently have issued their Indo-Pacific strategies. [Nikkei Asian Review] [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]
Motegi’s visit comes at a time when China is stepping up overtures to Europe, in an attempt to prevent further diplomatic tensions in addition to those with the USA.
Japan, South Korea at the UN General Assembly
(dql) In a statement reasserting Japan’s claim to a major role in the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, vowed at the virtually held UN General Assembly that Japan will “proactively lead” international efforts to fight the coronavirus. He, furthermore, addressed the issue of abductions by North Korea where he reassured Japan’s commitment to normalizing ties North Korea and to “comprehensively resolving the outstanding issues of concern such as the abductions, nuclear and missile issues, as well as settlement of the unfortunate past,” adding that was willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “without any conditions.” [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan: full text of Suga’s speech]
Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who also reaffirmed his countries commitment to a global and multilateral response to the pandemic, demanded “declaring an end to the [Korean] War,” as necessary move to “open the door to complete denuclearization and permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.” [Yonhap: full text of Moon’s speech]
This position contradicts Washington’s strategy which follows a "denuclearization first and peace treaty later". [Korea Times]
To access all speeches of the UN General Assembly, see [United Nations].
Japan-South Korea relations: Tokyo set conditions for a Suga-Moon summit
(dql) In a statement further hardening the protracted impasse in the dispute over wartime forced labor between Japan and South Korea, Tokyo announced that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will not visit South Korea for a trilateral summit with China unless he has a guarantee that assets seized from a Japanese company following a South Korean court ruling will not be liquidated. [Kyodo News]
The announcement echoes Suga’s hardline stance in the dispute expressed towards South Korean President Moon Jae-in in a recent phone talk. Suga demanded from Seoul to enable a "return to a constructive relationship," referring to South Korean court rulings in 2018 and 2019 which ordered the confiscation of assets of involved Japanese firms’ to compensate victims of forced labor during Japan’s rule on the Korean peninsula. Tokyo, however, maintains the compensation issue had been resolved by the 1965 Treaty on Basic Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea, and has since refused to accept the court rulings. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]
South Korea seeks Brazil’s support in bid for WTO’s chief position
(dql) During a phone conversation on deepening bilateral cooperation and the resumption of dialogue on a free trade agreement between South Korea and the South American trade block Mercosur, South Korean President Moon Jae-in requested his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro’s support the bid of South Korea’s Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee to head the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Yoo is currently vying with candidates from Nigeria, Kenya, Saudi Arabia and the UK for the director-general post, after Roberto Azevêdo of Brazil stepped down in August. [Yonhap]
Cross-strait relations: China blocks Wikipedia at the World Intellectual Property Organization
(dql) In a latest move to force multilateral bodies to comply with its stance on Taiwan, China – with backing from Russia, Iran, and Pakistan and against the USA, the UK, and Canada – has effectively blocked Wikimedia Foundation, Wikipedia’s parent, from gaining observer status at the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) by deferring Wikimedia’s application for such a status at last week’s WIPO assembly in Geneva. Beijing cited “a large amount of content and disinformation in violation of one-China principle” on Wikimedia websites, accusing Wikimedia of “carrying out political activities through its member organizations which could undermine the state sovereignty and territorial integrity [of China].”
Taiwan accused China of trying to censor Wikimedia Foundation, warning of WIPO becoming “an agent of Chinese expansionism in global organizations.” [Yahoo News] [CNS News]
For insights into the geopolitics of bidding for leadership positions in UN specialized agencies and China’s efforts and successes therein, see Yaroslav Trofimov, Drew Hinshaw, and Kate O’Keeffe in [Wall Street Journal].
Chinese representatives are currently heading four of the 15 UN specialized agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Telecommunication Union, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and the U.N. Industrial Development Organization. No other country – including the United States, the UN’s biggest funder – has a citizen heading more than one of the UN specialized agencies.
Taiwan-USA security relations: Defense Industry Conference kicked off
(dql) On Monday Taiwan and the USA have kicked off this year’s Defense Industry Conference, an annual two-day semi-official military exchange. Speaking on this occasion, Taiwan’s Deputy Defense Minister called on the USA to help strengthen the island’s defense against China, adding that this should not be limited to “tangible weapons and equipment,” but also include joint efforts “in training, operational concepts, capability assessment, intelligence sharing, and armament cooperation.”
To demonstrate China’s assertiveness towards Taiwan, he cited more than 4.000 responses of Taiwanese fighter jets to incursions by People’s Liberation Army warplanes so far this year, compared with 1.798 times in 2019, while vessels were sent out more than 7.500 times vessels to monitor PLA war and surveillance ships sailing in the Taiwan Strait or crossing the median line. In 2019 the number was close to 6.000. [South China Morning Post 1]
In a separate announcement, the Defense Ministry revealed plans to increase the frequency of calling up reservists, in an attempt to boost the combat readiness of its reserve forces. According to the plans, reservist call-ups would occur every year for two weeks. Compared with currently bi-annual call-ups for five to seven days training. [Focus Taiwan]
The Defense Industry Conference and the announcement on the reserve force come at a when Beijing’s military is muscle-flexing on an unprecedented scale, with record numbers of warplanes entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), with the latest being Chinese military surveillance aircraft spotted flying over the southwest sector of its ADIZ on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. [South China Morning Post 2] [Asia Times] [AiR September/2020, 4]
Taiwan-USA economic relations: US Senators push for trade deal with Taipei
(dql) US Senators from both parties have called on the Trump administration to begin negotiations with Taipei on a trade deal in order to reduce US “reliance” on China, diversify the country’s supply chains and protect American national security. [Yahoo News]
The move is the latest sign of a growing consensus among US legislators on deepening cooperation with Taiwan. It comes after Washington in August announced to institutionalize a new annual senior-level economic dialogue with Taiwan to be held annually. [AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1]
The Taiwanese government on its side in September announced to liberalize standards for pork imports to allow imports of American pork containing residues of ractopamine to pave the way for talks on a trade agreement with the USA. Washington has long criticized Taipei for its zero-tolerance policy against Ractomone, an animal feed additive used to promote leanness and increase food conversion efficiency in livestock. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]
Taiwan-Belize relations: Agreement on economic cooperation signed
(dql) Concluding talks which started last year, Taiwan and Belize last week signed an economic cooperation agreement (ECA) which aims to reduce tariffs, expedite bilateral trade, promote mutual investment, and foster technical cooperation.
Bilateral trade between both sides stood at 7.51 million USD last year, with Taiwan having 70.51 million USD in investments in Belize, predominantly in the sectors finance, manufacturing and retail. [Taipei Times]
Mongolia: Access to Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement
(dql) Mongolia last week acceded to the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), the country’s first regional trade agreement with developing countries. Joining the APTA, Mongolia will benefit from reduced tariff barriers as well as from enhanced market access to Bangladesh, China, India, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Republic of Korea and Sri Lanka, the other six member of APTA
APTA, signed as Bangkok Agreement in 1975 and renamed in 2005, is currently negotiating expanding tariff preferences in trade in goods and further liberalization in investment, services trade, and trade facilitation. [Scoop]
In an earlier move, Mongolia and Turkey during consultations late September agreed to boost efforts to deepen economic cooperation in the fields of agriculture, tourism, culture, humanitarian aid, and energy. [Aki Press]
Indian delegation visits Myanmar, amidst ongoing border stand-off with China
(lm) Against the backdrop of China’s growing regional economic and political clout [see e.g. AiR No. 3, January/2020, 3, AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2], India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla along with the country’s army chief visited Myanmar on October 4 and 5 to meet with State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi and the Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces. In light of the ongoing border stand-off between its soldiers and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in eastern Ladakh, New Delhi expressed its concern over the possibility of Chinese military move through the India-Myanmar-China trijunction around Diphu Pass. Beyond the issue of border security, both sides also discussed the possibility of building a petroleum refinery in Myanmar that would involve an investment by India worth 6$ billion. [Times of India] [The Diplomat] [Hindustan Times] [Deccan Herald]
Previously, on October 1, both countries held the 19th round of Foreign Office Consultations through video link. During the meeting, the foreign secretary reiterated New Delhi’s commitment to infrastructure projects in Myanmar, must significantly the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and the 2008-launched Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), which is supposed to link India’s Calcutta port to the Sittwe deep-water port in Myanmar, as well as facilitate land connectivity. Initially scheduled to be completed by 2016, Harsh Shringla said that both sides were working to operationalize Sittwe port by the first quarter of 2021. Further, India will provide debt service relief under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative to Myanmar from between May and December to mitigate the economic knock-on effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. [The Hindu]
India, China agree to hold 7th round of military talks to resolve border issue
(lm) India and China on September 30 held the 19th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) to review the current situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). During the inter-ministerial meeting, both sides agreed to follow-up on the five-point consensus reached between Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart and State Councilor Wang Yi in Moscow on September 10 [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [The Tribune] [The Print 1]
In his extensive address, the Chinese Ambassador to India showed no sign of the rancor expressed by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) the previous day. On Tuesday, the Chinese MFA had refused to recognize the Union Territory of Ladakh and, in a separate statement, said it would abide only by a “very clear” border alignment first spelt out in 1959 by late Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai – a claim explicitly rejected by India then and since. [The Diplomat] [South China Morning Post]
The two countries further agreed to hold the next round of senior military on October 12 with a specific agenda of firming up a roadmap for disengagement of troops from the friction points. The composition of the Indian delegation for the 12 October talks could remain the same as that of 21 September when the two sides met at Moldo, on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].
Then, talks had yielded a joint statement – the first since the two delegations started talks in June to end the border crisis that had started in May when India detected multiple intrusions into Ladakh [see AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2]. While exchanging “candid" and “in-depth" views “on stabilizing the situation along the LAC in the India - China border areas both sides agreed to stop deploying more troops to their contested border and avoid any action that might lead to an aggravation of the situation on the ground. Still, a tangible breakthrough on de-escalation eluded the marathon talks. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]
The situation along the LAC also found mention in the remarks made by the Indian Air Force (IAF) chief. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria described the situation along the LAC as being in an “uneasy no-war-no-peace-status”, whose future development would largely depend on the outcome of the ongoing talks. Further elaborating on the issue, the air chief also highlighted the substantial tactical and strategic capability enhancement gained by the recent acquisition of Rafale fighter jets [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]: “Air power will be a crucial enabler in our victory in any future conflict. It is, therefore, imperative that the IAF obtains and maintains a technological edge over our adversaries.” [Hindustan Times] [The Print 2]
Indian PM Modi inaugurates all-weather tunnel in northern border region
(lm) While inaugurating the strategically important all-weather Atal Tunnel at Rohtang in Himachal Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government will continue to expedite several frontier projects including roads, bridges and high-altitude airstrips. Further elaborating on the issue, the prime minister also took a jibe at the previous Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for its alleged lack of focus on the development of border infrastructure and compromising with the country’s defense interests. [Hindustan Times]
Traversing India's northern Himachal Pradesh state, the tunnel enables travelers to bypass a tricky route across a landslide-prone Himalayan pass, and, thus, will drastically reduce the time needed to rush troops to the country's remote Chinese border. [The Straits Times]
Noteworthy, the project is part of New Delhi's push to catch up with Chinese infrastructure development on the other side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India's Border Roads Organization (BRO), which implements most of these strategic projects, says it has built more in the last four years than in the previous decade. Speaking against the backdrop of ongoing tension with Beijing along the de-facto border, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in September had told parliament that the government had doubled the budget for border infrastructure development [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].
India test-fires new missile systems
(lm) India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) on Monday successfully tested its indigenously developed Supersonic Missile Assisted Release of Torpedo (SMART) system, which the organization said will be a “game changer” in anti-submarine warfare. The flight testing of the new anti-submarine missile followed the test-firing of an advanced version of the Shaurya surface-to-surface nuclear-capable ballistic missile on October 3. The Shaurya missile can strike targets at a range of around 800 kilometers and will complement the existing class of missile systems. [The Logical Indian] [The Print] [The Drive]
Earlier last week, the DRDO successfully tested an 'extended range' variant of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile off the coast of Balasore in Odisha. The supersonic cruise missile is produced by BrahMos Aerospace, an India-Russian joint venture, and can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft, or from land platforms. [The Week]
Against the backdrop of heightened tension with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the DRDO, Indian Ministry of Defense's top research and development arm, has recently been carrying out a series of missile tests. Last month, the organization successfully test-fired a Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV), tutting the country in a select club of few (US, China, Russia) that have demonstrated such this technology [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. Moreover, on September 22, the DRDO successfully conducted flight tests of Abhyas, a Highspeed Expendable Aerial Target (HEAT) [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5].
India, Sri Lanka hold first virtual summit
(lm) At their first virtual summit on September 26, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Sri Lankan counterpart Mahinda Rajapaksa agreed to expand maritime cooperation between their countries to stabilize the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal in the face of China’s growing ambitions in these regions. After Sri Lanka last month had announced its “India First Policy” - a reiteration of its commitment not to allow a third country to use its land or waters for anti-Indian activities [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1] - India clearly continued to step up efforts to win back ground lost to Beijing. [South China Morning Post] [Deccan Herald]
Firstly, India promised to consider Colombo’s request for delayed debt repayment and a $1 billion currency swap arrangement. In July, the Reserve Bank of India had already signed an agreement for extending a $400 million currency swap to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) until November 2022 in order to help the CBSL balance the country’s payment requirements [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]. Further, in a bid to reduce Sri Lanka’s dependence on China, India is reportedly working on a plan to offer Sri Lanka $50-million Line of Credit (LoC) in the defense sector. [The Economic Times]
However, on at least two issues – the East Container Terminal (ECT) project in Colombo and the implementation of the 13th Amendment – the Rajapaksa brothers so far have not yielded to pressure from New Delhi. [The Diplomat]
In the run-up to the August general election, Colombo had suspended the ECT project, which India, Japan, and Sri Lanka were to jointly implement [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. Although Japan and India are keen to see the deep-sea container terminal implemented, there have been no signs so far that Mahinda is thinking of reviving it. What is more, Mahinda visited the Port City project in Colombo earlier this month and called for the construction of the project to be accelerated, saying the BRI project would be the country’s future main source of revenue. The Colombo Port City project is being executed by a subsidiary of the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC). [Xinhua]
Neither did the meeting result in a bridging of the gap in their positions on the question of Sri Lankan Tamil rights. Just hours after both countries had issued a joint statement, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s office released a separate statement, making no mention of Mr. Modi’s call, or the 13th Constitutional Amendment which provides for devolution of power to provincial councils. [The Hindu]
United States, Bangladesh to broaden economic ties
(lm) Bangladesh and the United States held a senior-level economic dialogue on Wednesday to look for a “bigger picture” of enhanced trade cooperation in light of Bangladesh’s big push for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). According to the US embassy in Dhaka, an increasing number of US companies has shown interest over Bangladesh’s large market and sustained economic growth.
Bangladesh and the US have already been engaged in trade talks under the existing economic forum called ‘Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement (TICFA), since signing of the deal in 2013, to keep stability in the US-Bangladesh trade relationship. [United News of Bangladesh]
Indian Navy exercises with Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force
(lm) In an effort to increase the naval cooperation with Japan, the Indian Navy previously conducted a three-day bilateral maritime exercise with ships from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) between September 26 and 28 in the Norther Arabian Sea. The exercise marked the fourth time the two nations have held the biannual “JIMEX 2020” drill. The last JIMEX exercise was conducted in October 2018 off Visakhapatnam, India. [American Military News] [Times Now News]
Prior to this, The Indian Navy undertook a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) together with the Royal Australian Navy from September 23 to September 24 in the East Indian Ocean Region (IOR) [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5].
Japan, Maldives sign COVID-19 emergency support loan
(lm) The Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA) signed on Wednesday a $47.5 million loan agreement with the Maldives, marking Japan's largest concessional loan extended to the island nation in history. The same day, the governments of the two countries signed an Exchange of Notes, which is a precursor to the signing of a formal Loan Agreement. Taken together, the two agreements signed on Wednesday are designed to facilitate a COVID-19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan. [The Edition] [raajje.mv]
Pakistani security forces continue crackdown on suspected terrorist activities in northwestern border region
(lm) During an intelligence-based operation in the country's northwest tribal district of North Waziristan, Pakistani security forces on Sunday killed two suspected terrorists and apprehended another. The operation took place just two days after security forces conducted an operation on a terrorist hideout in the same district on Friday, killing two terrorists, including an improvised explosive device (IED) specialist. [Daily Pakistan]
These operations are the latest in a series of operations conducted by Pakistan’s military on multiple hideouts and administrative camps of terrorists in North Waziristan, an area that borders Afghanistan. In September, security forces had claimed to have killed a key militant commander along with his three accomplices near the Afghanistan border, describing it as a major breakthrough in ongoing security operations against suspected terrorists. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]
Brunei, Singapore to sign MoU
(nd) To strengthen diplomatic ties, Brunei Darussalam and the Republic of Singapore have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish collaborative social development programs including protection for children, the elderly, women, and persons with different abilities. Official bilateral relations between the ASEAN members were established in 1984.
Meanwhile, Singapore announced visitors from New Zealand and Brunei are now allowed to travel to and from the island city-state, solely undergoing a Covid-19 test upon arrival. [The Star] [eTurbo News]
Indonesia, China agree on direct currency settlement
(nd) In an effort to boost trade and investment transactions, Indonesia and China agreed to develop a framework of direct settlement between the rupiah and yuan. With such a framework in place, it is ensured that a selected number of local banks holds enough liquidity in the foreign currency for settling the transaction.
With more than $73 billion worth of goods exchanged annually, China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner. Usually, such transactions are settled using US dollar, for it is widely available in most banking systems, but tending to be more expensive and the traders to be subject to the currency’s volatility. Previously, Bank Indonesia put in place a local currency settlement framework with Malaysia, Thailand and Japan. [Jakarta Globe]
Malaysia: US bans FGV palm oil products
(nd) US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will ban imports of palm oil from FGV Holdings, one of Malaysia's top producers of the commodity. The department was investigating for over a year and allegedly found human rights violations within the work force, such as forced labor, child labor, physical and sexual violence, intimidation, and wages withheld.
Palm oil is used in many every-day products, ranging from foods to cosmetics. Malaysia and neighboring Indonesia are the biggest producer of the commodity and together produce 85 % of the world's supply. Its use has been controversial for years, mostly for driving rainforest destruction and destroying soil with monocultural agriculture. [Jakarta Post] [Rappler]
Meanwhile, the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (Suhakam) has urged government agencies to pay more attention to the rights of migrant workers, saying the biggest issue to be minimum wages. FGV denied the allegations, including withholding passport, and emphasized recent efforts to comply with human rights and labor standards. FGV had 11,286 Indonesian and 4,683 Indian workers who form the majority of its plantation workforce this August. [The Sun Daily]
Indonesia, Vietnam to be first on Suga’s list
(nd) According to Japanese media outlets, Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide is considering his first state trip to be to Indonesia and Vietnam. Predecessor Abe Shinzo’s first state visits after his reelection in 2021 were also Vietnam and Indonesia, emphasizing his vision of the “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Suga is committed to continuing Abe’s foreign policy to strike a careful balance between economic engagement and strategic competition with China, and a special focus on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). With its position between two oceans, Southeast Asia became a key focus of Japanese diplomacy. Bilateral relations improved under Abe, intensifying trade, security cooperation and infrastructure development, with strategic partnerships in place since 2006 (Indonesia) respectively 2014 (Vietnam). Both countries’ relationship to Japan are forged by shared concerns over Chinese presence, be it either in disputed waters of East and South China Sea or through infrastructure funding under the Belt and Road Initiative. [The Diplomat]
Southeast Asian nation’s critical potential
(nd) With the economic and political repercussions of Covid-19, Southeast Asia has entered a period of potential crisis that mirrors developments around the “Arab Spring” and the economic situation that lead to the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s, mobilizing both public and political opposition to demand fundamental political reform to change institutions of governance.
In the World Bank’s latest economic outlook, ASEAN nations’ economy could contract by as much as 4.7 percent. According to an estimate of the International Labor Organization, nearly 85 percent of youth employment within the Asia-Pacific is within the informal economy, which is not reached by governmental support and not included in official numbers. The many regional protest movements illuminate the frustration of younger populations with ineffective governance and high levels of unemployment.
Already, a political legitimacy deficit can be seen, which turns into trying to mute or quash dissidents and critics through authoritarian leadership, as seen prominently in Myanmar, the Philippines and Cambodia, facing criticism by UN representatives and human rights advocates. Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo finds himself increasingly pleasing powerful Islamic constituencies that threatened to galvanize public discontent. Ever since February, Malaysia has been struggling with political stability, yet again following an unresolved claim of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to form a new government. In Thailand, the unprecedented student-led protests and their criticism of the monarchy institution is gaining ever more momentum. Additionally, Thai protesters expressed solidarity for Taiwan and Hong Kong, fueling a vision of “pan-Asian alliance for democracy”, named “Milk Tea Alliance,” continues to trend on social media.
A recent study by British-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft – the Right to Privacy Index (RPI), rated 198 countries for privacy violations, including mass surveillance operations, retention of personal data, home searches and other breaches. According to this, Asia was the world's highest-risk region for violations with a deterioration in recent years. Among the worst-scoring Asian nations were Pakistan, China, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, India and the Philippines. The study advocated data privacy legislation and a transparent surveillance system.
The backdrop for these developments is a raging pandemic with sometimes haphazard public health responses additionally undermining credibility and trust. [The Diplomat] [Jakarta Post]
Cambodia destroyed US-funded facility at Ream Naval Base, possibly in the context of Chinese access
(jn) Satellite images analyzed and made available by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have revealed that the Cambodian government destroyed a US-funded military facility at Ream Naval Base in Preah Sihanouk Province, further stoking the fear that changes at said base are related to a secret deal on military access between Cambodia and China. According to AMTI, the building probably demolished at the beginning of September was the Tactical Headquarters of the National Committee for Maritime Security that had been built and renovated by the US, and inaugurated in 2012.
AMTI also noted that satellite images show the progress of land reclamation and about 100 acres of new landfill since February, about three miles north of the base at a stretch of Ream Bay. The zone is being developed by Canopy Sands Development Group which is owned by the Chinese conglomerate Prince Group. Canopy Sands is one of several Chinese companies, some of them with ties to Beijing, that have leased large tracts of land around Ream Naval Base for resort development. [AMTI CSIS]
Reports of a Chinese access to Ream Naval Base had caused anxiety among ASEAN neighbors and the US after reports of a deal between China and Cambodia emerged last year that would allow a Chinese company to construct new piers in exchange for a 30-year-long presence of the Chinese navy (PLAN). A Chinese foothold at the Cambodian coast would have the potential to unsettle the already skewed security equilibrium in the region by giving China another opportunity to permanently project military power to the South China Sea and to the straits of Malacca. [AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2] [WSJ]
The Cambodian Defense Minister General Tea Banh said on Saturday that the demolition was not out of the ordinary but rather part of a development plan for the base that required moving existing structures to a new location. The goal allegedly was to improve and enlarge the base that was still small and shallow at the moment. He also played down the significance of the US investment as merely amounting “small repair” and “some equipment”, but nevertheless on sovereign Cambodian soil. He called out the US for “making issues” and “always making allegations”. [Radio Free Asia]
Only two weeks ago in a meeting with US ambassador to Cambodia W. Patrick Murphy, Tea Banh had explicitly assured that Ream Naval Base would be for the Cambodian Navy’s use only. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5] However, a ministry spokesman said that the removal was necessary to make way for an expansion of the naval base because “a lot of ships will need to dock”. [Reuters]
Asia Nikkei Review reported on Saturday that according to Vann Bunlieng, a three-star vice-admiral, deputy commander and chief of the navy general staff, the Chinese government was supporting the expansion of the port and the development a ship repair facility at the base on the Gulf of Thailand. The waters surrounding Ream Naval Base would be deepened so that it can receive larger ships in the future. He said that the “Chinese government helps us to build a port and repair facility for our ship.”
Even though the Cambodian government and Prime Minister Hun have repeatedly denied any future foreign and military use of the base, the Chinese state-owned company MGC had revealed in 2016 that it was tasked with a “Port Expansion Project” by Cambodian authorities in a “cooperation framework agreement”. In a statement that was since taken down, it had given away on its website that the project aimed at expanding a “naval military base”. [Asia Nikkei Review]
Cambodian king reaffirms One-China-Policy
(jn) King Norodom Sihamoni of Cambodia sent a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping extending his congratulations on the 71st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. He expressed solidarity with China on their controversial One-China policy, saying Cambodia will stand side-by-side with China and adhere to policy. [Cambodianess]
RFA: Top Cambodian General’s family embroiled in fraudulent land bank scheme in Australia
(jn) An investigation by Radio Free Asia has unearthed an illegal investment scheme that involves an Australian Khmer businessman and the daughters of a high-ranking Cambodian general who served as front women for real estate purchases far below market value, until it was shut down by an Australian court. The daughters of Gen. Pol Saroeun, one of Prime Minister Hun Sen’s senior government officials and until 2018 commander-in-chief of the armed forces, participated in a so-called land bank scheme, i.e. buying shares for large areas of land under market value with the purpose of dividing up into smaller parcels for future, profitable residential developments. In 2011, they bought five million shares of the company Aviation 3030 Pty Ltd founded by businessman Hakly Lao for just US$36 even though the market equivalent of the shares was indeed US$715.000. Lao had purchased the 240-acre patch of land in the Melbourne suburb of Point Cook for US$5.6 million some months prior.
A federal judge had the whole scheme shut down last year saying the two daughters were “nominees” for Lao by lending him their names to obscure Lao’s beneficial ownership of the shares from future investors. The judge also gave other examples of criminal conduct like document fraud, deceiving investors and unauthorized expenditures.
Another land bank scheme devised by Lao and of even bigger dimensions was also prosecuted by Australian authorities in 2018.
In recent years, Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) is said to have been actively involved in other criminal enterprises in Australia such as money laundering, intimidation and smuggling of heroin, cigarettes and alcohol. [Radio Free Asia]
Cambodian government lashes out over UN report
(jn) The Cambodian government on September 30 attacked the UN over accusations of human rights abuses. The same day the UN Secretary-General’s office had presented a report to the Human Rights Council finding that the Cambodian police had routinely interfered with civil society organizations and intimidated those who have collaborated with the UN.
A government spokesperson claimed that UN bodies and representatives were twisting the truth, adding that the police always follow Cambodian law. He said he felt that Cambodia has been facing baseless accusations for many years despite always handing in explanatory reports about incidents of intimidation, harassment and violence. [Cambodianess]
Vietnam and UK agree to pursue Free Trade Agreement
(jn) During the visit of British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to Vietnam on September 29-30 he and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc affirmed their countries’ intentions of concluding a free trade deal in the near future. Phuc said a free trade deal with Britain that his country deemed a major trading partner would “help both countries to boost economic recovery in post COVID-19 pandemic period.”
The U.K. Foreign Secretary also tweeted that Vietnam had a key role to play in regional stability in East Asia and that he had met with his Vietnamese counterpart Pham Binh Minh “to re-emphasize the UK’s commitment to work together, including on maritime security, Myanmar and multilateralism through ASEAN and the UN Security Council. The UK has enjoyed a “Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam since 2010.
Mr. Raab also announced on Twitter that the UK had secured Vietnam’s public support for it to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), describing this as “a significant step in taking the U.K.-Vietnam economic relationship to the next level, and demonstrating the U.K.’s commitment and value to the region.”
Such a free trade deal would come at the right time for the UK as it is still seeking to disengage itself from the EU, while Vietnam is trying to boost its Covid-battered economy and attract new trading partners in its quest to reduce its economic reliance on China. [The Diplomat] [Reuters]
Vietnam warns China to not endanger maritime code talks with military drills
(jn) Vietnam cautioned on Thursday that Chinese military exercises near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea would put the negotiations for a regional maritime code of conduct (COC) at risk, just when the talks between China and ASEAN members were about to restart. China began five military exercises simultaneously along different parts of its coast on Monday, including two exercises near said island chain that is also claimed by Vietnam.
Agreeing on the COC has been an objective of ASEAN and China for almost two decades, even its legal (binding) character has been doubted by experts as China genuine commitment to it. [Reuters] [Vietnam News]
US plans to investigate Vietnam over suspected currency manipulation
(jn) The Trump administration has announced an official investigation into whether Vietnam has manipulated its currency, an inquiry that could lead to trade sanctions and that would come after the Trump administration had determined in August that Vietnam had manipulated its currency in a specific trade case involving tires.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative said it would probe Vietnam’s importation and use of timber, which it deemed illegally harvested and traded. It would also investigate whether Vietnam has undervalued its currency, leading to unfairly cheap exports. The probe will be carried out pursuant to Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act.
The US Treasury Department has already placed Vietnam on a watchlist of ten potential currency manipulators that also includes Malaysia and Singapore this January. It remains unclear whether the sanctions such as new tariffs would be enforced before the US presidential election on November 3 and which goods would be targeted.
Sanctions could come in the form of new tariffs on imports and new federal rules passed this year in the US that allows the Commerce Department greater leeway to raise duties in specific response to currency manipulation. [The New York Times] [Bloomberg 1] [Bloomberg 2] [Asia Times]
Timor-Leste: National petroleum industry development on hold
(nd) The price drop for oil and gas following the Covid-19 pandemic has put at least a hold to plans by former prime minister Xanana Gusmao to build an onshore LNG plant and oil refinery to develop a domestic petroleum industry and limit dependence on foreign aid. The proposed $18 billion Tasi Mane project that would build the respective infrastructure connected to the Greater Sunrise field via a 286 km pipeline across cross the Timor Sea. Deemed a nationalist prestige project, it remains unclear whether political leaders are willing to jeopardize the country's independence by appealing to China's state-owned Exim Bank for a $16 billion loan and possibly ending in the same kind of debt-trap other countries in the region already have.
A growing number of politicians therefore deem the risky project logistically and financially senseless, asserting due to the need of experts, no local jobs will be created. Additionally, the party of supporter Gusmao National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) fell from power this year in a struggle with Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak and his People’s Liberation Party (PLP) over the passing of the budget. Gusmao has resigned as chief negotiator of the Greater Sunrise gas field.
With a tighter budget due to Covid-19 measures and repercussions, politicians seem less likely to add to the already spent money for buying out shares of foreign oil firms and building infrastructure near the proposed onshore plant. The political situation and the coalition remain unstable with frequent new forming governments , although all power transitions were peaceful. Additionally, new parties emerged, diversifying the political representers: Ruak’s PLP emerged in 2017, and KHUNTO party, gathering disenfranchised youths and, as an analyst called it, the “political wing” of the country’s martial-arts groups, which were outlawed by Gusmao in 2013 due to criminal activity. [Nikkei Asia] [The Diplomat]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
7 October 2020 @ 3:00 pm EDT, Hoover Institution, USA
A conversation with Assistant Secretary, James Blew
Hoover’s Capital Conversations series brings together Hoover Institution fellows and leading policy makers for informed discussions between those who generate ideas enabling a free society and those who turn them into actionable policy. The series examines the major policy challenges facing the United States and world today, as well as those that may confront future generations.
Please find registration details here: [Hoover Institution]
7 October 2020 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hoover Institution, USA
Italy and Europe Perspective on the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Great Power Competition
This event will be discuss the instability in the Sahel and Libya; relations with Turkey; the refugee crisis and the rise of populism in Europe; and the EU and NATO response to the COIVD crisis, Russian subversion and China’s Wolf Warrior diplomacy.
Please find registration details here: [Hoover Institution]
7 October 2020 @ 15:00-16:30 pm SAST, Institute for Security Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa
How to stop South Africa’s cash in transit syndicates
A new book reveals the workings of the highly professional criminal syndicates behind South Africa’s cash-in-transit robberies. 'Transito: The truth behind the big-money robberies' by Dr Hennie Lochner and Peet van Staden provides intriguing insights into how the syndicates are formed, how they select their targets and execute their attacks.
Please find registration details here: [ISS]
7 October 2020 @ 10:00-11:30 am SAST, Institute for Security Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa
From lockdown to recovery: South Africa’s economic outlook
Drawing on recent studies by the African Futures and Innovation programme at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), this seminar will debate questions that are fundamental to achieving economic growth in South Africa in the aftermath of COVID-19.
Please find registration details here: [ISS]
7 October 2020 @ 9:00-10:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, Washington, DC, USA
A Conversation with US Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy
Join Hudson Institute for a conversation with US Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy on the US Army’s Project Convergence, the Army’s priorities for new weapons systems and readiness, and the implications of looming budget constraints.
Further details are available at [Project Convergence]
7 October 2020 @ 10:30 am - 12:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan
The Future of Responsible Business in Southeast Asia
This webinar will discuss on how governments, businesses, industry associations, civil society organizations, and business and human rights stakeholders can respond to the challenges facing responsible business, and what will be needed to prepare for the changes that lie ahead in efforts to tackle societal problems like climate change, and the impacts of business activities on individuals and societies.
Please find registration details here: [SPF]
8 October 2020 @ 2:30 pm CEST, Bruegel, Belgium
Evaluating European Commission’s control of state aid to banks in the period
The European Court of Auditors just published a report on the European Commission’s control of state aid to banks in the period 2013-2018. The online event will discuss the report’s findings and implied policy questions with Mihails Kozlovs, the Member of the Court responsible for the report.
Further details are available at [Bruegel].
8 October 2020 @ 17:00-18:00 pm AEDT, Lowy Institute, Australia
Lowy Institute Live: Pacific aid in the time of Covid
Across the Pacific, economies are being devastated by the lockdowns necessary to keep the COVID-19 pandemic at bay. The threads connecting Pacific economies to the outside world – tourism, migration, remittances, investment and trade – are fraying. Double-figure economic contractions are expected in most Pacific nations, with formal employment collapsing. It will be many years before Pacific economies recover to their 2019 levels. At this online event, regional experts and development partners will discuss about how the COVID-19 crisis is playing out in the Pacific.
Further details are available at [Lowly Institute].
8 October 2020 @ 4:30-6:30 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India
The Crisis in Indian Political Thought
This online panel will gather scholars from different ideological strands to assess the nature of contemporary political discourse in India and its future implications.
Further details are available at [CPR].
8 October 2020 @ 5:00-6:00 PM UTC-7 World Affairs, USA
Election Series, A Divided Land & The Far Middle
At this online event, P.J. O'Rourke, American political satirist, journalist and New York Times bestselling author, shares observations about the state of affairs in the US at a time when divisiveness is at an all-time high and a controversial election in a global pandemic is right around the corner.
Further details are available at [World Affair]
8 October 2020 @ 3:00-5:00 pm SAST, Institute for Security Studies, South Africa
Is Kenya succeeding in preventing violent extremism?
This seminar will reflect on current prevention efforts in Kenya and how they can be better designed for greater positive impact and social cohesion.
Please find registration details here: [ISS]
8 October 2020 @ 12:00-1:30 pm EDT, Cato Institute, Washington DC, USA
Pernicious Infusion: How Racism pervades the Drug War, Both Foreign and Domestic
Does the war on drugs provide a cover to exercise social control and containment of minorities and marginalized communities? This online panel will explore this subject in depth.
Please find registration details here: [CATO]
8 October 2020 @ 3.00-4:30 BST, International Institute for Strategic Studies, UK
NATO’s southern flank: Security around the mediterranean Sea
The panel will discuss the current situation in the Mediterranean and anticipated threats to stability.
Further details are available at [IISS]
8 October 2020 @ 10.00-11.00 am CEST, Diplo Foundation, Switzerland
Geneva Dialogue on Responsible Behaviour in Cyberspace at Singapore International Cyber Week
This event will be discuss global industry good practices on the security of digital products and services, and their impact on reducing vulnerabilities in cyberspace and implementing global cyber norms.
Please find registration details here: [Diplo]
12 October 2020 @ 1:00-2:30 pm CEST, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden
The EU and the Arab uprisings: lessons learnt and new challenges ahead
This webinar will discuss the aim to explore how the EU reacted to the chaotic and quickly changing situations in these countries.
If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [UI].
13 October 2020 @ 4.00 - 5.00 pm PDT, Standford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA
Japan’s Foreign Policy Options in the changing Asia- Pacific
This event will be discuss key diplomatic challenges for Japan including its management of the US-China-Japan trilateral relations, its handling of important neighboring countries such as North and South Korea and Russia, its larger strategies in the Indo-Pacific region, and its engagement with global institutions.
Further details are available at [Stanford]
13 October 2020 @ 4:00-5.00 pm EDT, Queen’s University, Canada
Queen's Contagion Cultures Lecture - The World of Work Post-Pandemic - Don Drummond & Patrick Deutscher
The Covid crisis led to rapid and unprecedented job loss as a large swathe of the economy was shut down. While some jobs came back quickly as public health rules have relaxed, employment remains well below pre-crisis levels. The pace of recovery will be uneven across sectors and occupations with consequences for the reemployment rates of women, low-wage workers and some ethnic groups.
Please find registration details here: [Alumni]
14 October 2020 @ 4:00 pm CEST, Bruegel, Belgium
The impact of EU debt on the EU market of safe assets
This event will be look on how the EU debt that will be issued will affect the EU market of safe assets as well as how the EU bond itself will be structured and rated. An additional concern is that the green bonds’ target of 30% would fragment the EU bond market.
Further details are available at [EUROPEAN MACROECONOMICS & GOVERNANCE]
14 October 2020 @ 3.00 pm CEST, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy
Ready to Travel? Tourism in Europe and the Gulf under, and after, the COVID-19 Pandemic
This webinar will explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sectors in Europe and the Gulf and discuss prospects for their future.
If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [ISPI]
14 October 2020 @ 8:00-9:00 am EDT, Asia Society Policy Institute, USA
The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: Views Across the Asia-Pacific
While U.S. presidential elections generally draw global attention, the interest in this year’s contest between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden may be without parallel, given the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the stresses on the global economy, and the strains in U.S. This online event will examine the issues and perspectives from across Asia.
Further details are available at [Asia Society]
14 October 2020 @ 11.00 am - 3.00 pm CEST, The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Norway
Oil sales in Guyana
This webinar will discuss Guyana's oil sector to-date, the EITI Standard and its work on commodity trading transparency and give the opportunity for questions from participants.
Further details are available at [EITI]
15 October 2020 @ 3:00-4:30 pm CEST, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden
International Trends in Border Politics
In this webinar, UI researcher Johanna Pettersson is joined by the awarded researcher Matthew Longo for an in-depth conversation on the current developments in international border politics and prospects for the future.
If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [UI]
15 October 2020 @ 2:00-3.30 pm CEST, Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Hungary
Strategy, Spacepower, and Geopolitics. More Space for NATO and EU
In this webinar will present an in-depth discussion of the current developments in international border politics and prospects for the future.
Further details are available at [Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade]
16 October 2020 @ 3:00 pm CEST, Italian institute for international political studies, Italy
MED Virtual Conversation with Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund
Jihad Azour is the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund where he oversees the Fund’s work in the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia and Caucasus.
If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [ISPI]
16 October 2020 @ 10:00-11:00 am SGT, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
Thailand’s Defence Diplomacy with China
This webinar will examine Thailand’s defence diplomacy with China in terms of weapons sourcing, joint military exercises and military officer education.
Please find registration details here: [Yusof]
Recent and upcoming book releases
Sebastian Strangio, In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century, Yale University Press, September 22, 2020, 360 pages, with a review in [The Diplomat].
Arundhati Roy, Azadi: Freedom, Fascism, Fiction, Penguin Hamish Hamilton, September 2, 2020, 256 pages, reviewed in [The Scotsman]
Jonathan E Hillman, The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century, Yale University Press, September 29, 2020, 304 pages. Find a review in [Weehingthong].
Murray Hiebert, Under Beijing's Shadow: Southeast Asia's China Challenge, Center for Strategic & International Studies, August 15, 2020, 608 pages, with a review at [Council on Foreign Relations].
Nikhil Dey, We The People: Establishing Rights and Deepening Democracy, Vintage Books, August 17, 2020, 176 pages, with a review at [The Kootneeti]
Calls
The Asia Pacific of International Humanitarian Law invites paper submissions for its 2021 edition relating to the following conference topics: international humanitarian law, humanitarian policy or humanitarian action. Closing date of submission is November 20, 2020. More information at [APIJIHL].
The 4th Annual Workshop on Applications of Artificial Intelligence in the Legal Industry, scheduled for December 10-13, 2020 is open for paper submissions until October 16, 2020. For further details, see [Artificial Intelligence]
The 2nd International Conference on Educational Innovation and Philosophical Inquiries, scheduled for October 7-8, 2021 invites paper submissions from different areas including education, psychology, and sociology. Closing date of submission is December 1, 2020. More information at [ICEIPI]
The NUALS Intellectual Property Law Review invites to submit papers for its third volume. Closing date for submissions is December 15, 2020. For further details, see [NUALS]
The Telos Paul Piccone Institute invite paper submissions for its conference “Civilizational States and Liberal Empire - Bound to Collide?” scheduled for September 18-19 2021 in New York City. Submissions are possible until January 15, 2021. For further details, see [Telos].
Jobs & positions
The Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Copenhagen, offers a permanent position of Senior Researcher in defence, security, and strategic studies at the Centre for Military Studies. Closing date for applications is November 1, 2020. Further information at [Academic Positions]
The Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Bozen, offers a fixed-term contract position of a Researcher in political science with a focus on the area of economic analysis of politics and rational models of politics. Closing date for applications is October 8, 2020. More about the vacancy at [UNIBZ]
The Department of Interdisciplinary Study of Law, Private Law and Business Law at the Faculty of Law, Ghent University, welcomes applications for the position of a Research Assistant for a 2-years term. Closing date for applications is October 20, 2020. Further information at [Assistant]
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