A typical portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is down less than 1% for the year to date. To get back to the breakeven point, however, investors had to survive the breaking point, a 34% loss in five weeks. That was followed by an equally shocking 40% bounceback. Together, it was one of the sharpest collapses and swiftest recoveries Wall Street has ever seen.
The first half of 2020 should remind us that investing isn't about conquering markets; it's about mastering ourselves.
To be an intelligent investor is to recognize that you're in a lifelong struggle for self-control — an unending effort to keep yourself from yielding to fear or greed, believing that you know what the future holds or letting short-term news knock your long-term plans off track.
Self-control means not becoming your own worst enemy.
My latest column, Markets Bombed, Investors Carried On, shows that the vast majority of individual investors didn't lose their heads during the crisis.
Some did, of course. One of the most common mistakes I've seen investors make is to treat investing like a sporting event in which, after every big play, the markets say to them, "Your move."
But investing isn't a game, and you almost never have to move. It's a long, repetitive process. As the investment consultant Charley Ellis told me many years ago:
Go to a continuous-process factory sometime — a chemical plant, a cookie manufacturer, a place that makes toothpaste. Everything is perfectly repetitive, automated, exactly in place. If you find anything interesting, you’ve found something wrong.
Investing is a continous process too; it isn’t supposed to be interesting. It’s a responsibility. If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose. Everyone who thinks the stock market is a game loses — everyone, to the last man, woman and child.
So, the purpose of an investment policy is simply to ensure that your continuous process never breaks down....
Benign neglect is the secret to long-term investing success. If you change your investment policy, you are likely to be wrong; if you change it with a sense of urgency, you’re guaranteed to be wrong.
Trading a little can be entertaining and fun — so long as you limit how much you risk, you can afford to lose it all and you keep your speculation isolated from your investing. Self-control is such a delicate balance that a short hot streak of irresistible gains, followed by inevitable losses, can ruin years of discipline.
If you made it to June 30 without changing your investment plan, congratulations.
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