Good morning. A sharp slowdown in job growth this summer likely seals the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting in two weeks.

Also. the European Central Bank is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged for a second straight meeting of its policymakers Thursday, and give little away about whether the next move will be a cut or the first increase since 2023.

A sharp slowdown in job growth this summer likely seals the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting in two weeks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously signaled the central bank was on track to cut rates if incoming data suggested that the labor market was slowing, and the August employment report provided a clear sign that payroll growth had downshifted meaningfully since the beginning of the year.

• Traders See Chance of Half-Point Rate Cut After Weak Payrolls
• Unemployment Rising for Young, Old
• Both Labor-Market Supply and Demand Are Slowing
• Black Unemployment Rises Again in Jobs Report

The European Central Bank is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged for a second straight meeting of its policymakers Thursday, and give little away about whether the next move will be a cut or the first increase since 2023.

The eurozone’s central bank is the first of its peers to reach a point where policymakers are confident they have tamed the surge in inflation that began in mid-2021 and saw the pace of price rises peak at over 10%. Over recent months, ECB President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues have repeatedly said that they are now in “a good place.”

The exit of Japan’s prime minister is likely to extend political uncertainty. That may unsettle bonds or the yen, but it’s given equities a lift, pushing the benchmark into record territory.

German industrial production rebounded in July despite a further plunge in exports to the U.S., indicating the sector’s resilience in the face of tariffs.

Industrial output in Europe’s largest economy jumped 1.3% on month, the first rise since March, while June’s data was also revised upward to a decline of just 0.1% from the 1.9% slump originally reported, according to Germany’s statistics agency Destatis on Monday.

America’s labor market has slowed markedly in recent months. If it weren’t for job gains in the health-services sector, it would barely be growing at all.

Health services, which include healthcare and social assistance, have long been an engine of U.S. job growth, bolstering the labor market through thick and thin. But amid a general weakening in the labor market, the danger is that the sector doesn’t have enough gasoline in the tank to keep driving employment forward. Impending Medicaid cuts, for example, could severely slow it down. What is more, the sector might turn out to not be providing as much oomph to job growth as the official data now show.

Days after a federal appeals court struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs, Mark Riskowitz started preparing for a refund claim. The vice president of operations at cookware company Caraway Home began compiling records of customs entry forms and tariff payments for a claim that could total more than $1 million, if the courts ultimately decide in importers’ favor.

Oil billionaire Harold Hamm high-fived Donald Trump on election night as results trickled in at the Mar-a-Lago watch party.

Hamm, founder of family-owned oil-and-gas company Continental Resources, had good reason to celebrate. He and other oilmen had donated tens of millions of dollars to help re-elect Trump, betting that his pro-fossil-fuel agenda would stave off a long-term shift away from fossil fuels and keep the country hooked on gasoline.

That wager is paying off. The Trump administration is opening swaths of wilderness land and federal waters to drilling, approving new terminals to export natural gas and proposing to ax environmental regulations, including an Obama-era rule used to curb emissions from power plants, tailpipes and oil-and-gas production. His One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to hobble renewable-energy projects and stunt the adoption of electric vehicles.

10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index
3 p.m.: Consumer Credit
7 p.m.: OECD Financial Markets Week event

6 a.m.: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
7 p.m.: U.N. General Assembly

Many long-time homeowners are sitting on substantial equity gains, but today's shifting market means selling successfully requires more strategy and preparation than in years past, Realtor.com says. Starting the process early--before the peak spring season--can make the difference between a smooth sale and missed opportunities. Nearly half--45.2%--of homeowners have lived in their homes for more than 15 years, with one in four staying put for more than 25 years. U.S. home prices have tripled from $145,000 in June 2000 to $435,300 in June 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors. For many owners, that means hundreds of thousands of dollars in potential equity. A typical homeowner who bought in 2005 has seen their home value rise by about 90%, boosting equity by more than $200,000. — Chris Wack

The Bank of England likely won't move to lower interest rates until the very end of the year, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja writes in a note to clients. The Bank of England last month cut its benchmark lending rate to 4.00%, but signalled its continued caution over inflation. With a sizeable part of the Bank's governing council favouring a pause, Governor Andrew Bailey may well now lean that way too, Raja says. He notes the timing of the government's Budget, to be held relatively late in November, perhaps leading the BOE to prefer to wait for more fiscal clarity before moving to lower rates. More data on the direction of the U.K. economy and inflation will be available by the December meeting, too, Raja says. "Put simply, with the August decision being finely balanced, the governor may be more inclined to wait until year-end before pulling the trigger on another rate cut," he says. — Joshua Kirby

• Canada unexpectedly shed jobs for a second month running in August, extending a soggy summer for a labor market that is showing signs of weakness broadening beyond areas directly hit by tariffs and trade worries.

• The Japanese economy grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter, revised data showed, confirming a fifth straight quarter of growth.

• China’s exports grew at a slower-than-expected pace last month as the boost from a trade truce with the U.S. waned. Outbound shipments rose 4.4% from a year earlier in August, down from a 7.2% increase in July, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected export growth of 5.2%.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.