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March 18, 2021 - Brief Issue 170

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Study Suggests SARS-CoV-2 Variants Rarely Survive Secondary Transmission (Health & Science)

Negative Effects of Alcoholism On the Rise for Women During the Pandemic (Health & Science)

Florida Schools Reopen Without Superspreading (Health & Science)

EU Threatens to Block Vaccine Exports to Britain (Around the World)

Lockdowns May Have Led to a Rise in Child Deaths in South Asia (Around the World)

Surge in Covid-19 Cases in Maharashtra (Around the World)

Seoul Defends Mandatory Tests for Foreign Workers (Around the World)

IRS Expected to Delay Taxes Deadline by a Month (U.S. Government & Politics)

Poll Finds 72% Approve of Covid Relief Bill (U.S. Government & Politics)

Trump Praises Coronavirus Vaccine (U.S. Government & Politics)

Toyota, Honda Close U.S. Factories Amid Supply Issues (U.S. Economy)

High Wood, Brick Prices Help Keep Housing Prices High (U.S. Economy)

Billions of Dollars in Pandemic Vouchers About to Expire (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,608,162 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 538,093 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 376,517,296 tests and distributed 147,590,615 vaccine doses, with 113,037,627 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 121,319,246 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,682,660 deaths. At least 68,791,811 people have recovered from the virus.

Study Suggests SARS-CoV-2 Variants Rarely Survive Secondary Transmission

A study published in Science last week found that new SARS-CoV-2 variants that arise in Covid-19 patients are rarely transmitted to others (Medical Xpress). Researchers ran RNA sequencing on 1,313 nasal swab samples from infected (and mostly symptomatic) U.K. patients, gathered between March and June of 2020. The results showed that most patients carried one or two variants, only a few of which had the potential to survive transmission; little evidence of inter-household spread of these variants was identified. Though variants are rare, they may have mutations that help them evade the body’s immune response. The researchers also noted that more variants are likely to emerge as SARS-CoV-2 mutates in response to vaccines; these new variants can be highly contagious and fast-spreading.

Negative Effects of Alcoholism On the Rise for Women During the Pandemic

According to Dr. Jessica Mellinger, a liver specialist at the University of Michigan’s health system, cases of alcoholic liver disease – including fatty liver disease, cirrhosis scarring, and alcoholic hepatitis – have risen by more than 30% over the last year (NPR). While the CDC has yet to publish data on the link between alcoholism and the pandemic, Mellinger said her colleagues from other health systems have reported a similar trend. 

Alcoholic liver disease, which is caused by heavy daily drinking or less frequent binge drinking, is life-threatening; survival rates for cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis may dip as low as 10% (CDC, PubMed). Though liver disease is more common among men, young women have been driving an escalation of alcoholic liver disease-related deaths in the past few years (BMJ). Experts worry this has accelerated during the pandemic because of the outsize impact Covid-19 has had on the careers and well-being of women (NPR). Dr. Scott Winder of the University of Michigan noted that alcoholism has many causes – physical and psychological – so patients with alcoholism are often underserved by a very compartmentalized healthcare system.

Florida Schools Reopen Without Superspreading 

Florida was one of the first states to resume in-person K-12 teaching, opening schools back in August (WSJ). While this directive from Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran triggered backlash, Florida schools have not yet seen any major spikes in cases, with 80% of students now back in person full- or part-time. 

Florida schools have consistently maintained case rates lower than those of the surrounding community in their seven months of being open; other states with ample student Covid-19 data, including New York and Massachusetts, have had similar experiences. As of last Friday, the cumulative amount of Covid-19 cases among Florida children under 18 was 5,202 per 100,000, the 6th-highest out of 17 states with comparable data. Public health experts point to the fact that children are less likely to transmit the virus that causes Covid-19.

Andrew Spar, president of the Florida Education Association, said school reopenings were safer than expected, but the road has been rocky. He said the state has failed to enforce Covid-19 guidelines in schools and prioritize staff for vaccines. Over 1,200 classrooms across Florida have experienced temporary closures due to the Covid-19; 41 school employees and nine school-age children have so far died from the virus. “Every day in the state of Florida, thousands of students are impacted by Covid in some fashion, like quarantine or being exposed,” Spar said. “Those disruptions to the learning process are very real.”

Vaccinations Reach Remote Corners of the Country

As President Biden pushes states to accelerate their vaccination timelines, officials, nonprofits, and other public health organizations are boosting efforts to get vaccines to America’s most rural communities (WSJ). Central Appalachia, a remote area where many residents suffer from co-morbidities, especially diabetes and lung disease, has been one such area of focus. A mobile clinic called Health Wagon – the main source of healthcare for a population of aging coal miners in 9 rural Virginia counties – received its first ten doses of the vaccine on March 2. The team, run by Teresa Tyson and Dr. Paula Hill-Collins, had to deliver five shots to isolated corners of Appalachia, navigating steep roads and railroad tracks, in just a few hours. “I know I’ve got these mountains around me, but this isn’t the Great Wall,” Hill-Collins said.

Cherokee Nation Combats Waning Demand for Vaccines

The Cherokee Nation has delivered more than 33,000 doses of the coronavirus vaccine throughout its reservation in northeastern Oklahoma, contributing to a decline in Covid-19 cases (NYT, Tableau). The first round of shots was given to Cherokee-speaking elders, healthcare workers, and other essential workers, and the vaccine is now available to any adult living within the reservation. But despite sufficient supply, the demand for vaccines has quieted. The Osage Nation, for example, has enough vaccines to give 500 shots a day, but is only administering about 200. Officials are working to fight misinformation, expand access to the vaccine, and communicate with people who may not know they are eligible. The Osage Nation bought two “medical RVs” that will attempt to reach unvaccinated older people and essential workers in more remote areas. 

Slow Walkers at Higher Risk for Covid-19 Death and Severity

A study published in the International Journal of Obesity found that slow walkers with a normal weight were 3.75 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than faster walkers (BBC). Run by researchers from the National Institute for Health Research Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, the study used self-reported walking data, as well as information on BMI and Covid-19 risk, from 412,596 people across the U.K. Slow walking was defined as less than 3 miles per hour, average walking as 3-4 miles per hour, and brisk as over 4 miles per hour. Obesity is already well-known as a risk factor for Covid-19 severity, but this study found that slow walkers, regardless of BMI, were more likely to die of the disease. Slow walkers were also 2.5 more likely to experience severe Covid-19 symptoms than the fastest walkers. The researchers warned, however, that these results can’t be taken as canon because of self-reporting bias. 

Bonus Reads: “Driven by the Pandemic and ‘The Fauci Effect,’ Applicants Flood Public Health Schools,” (STAT); “Why it’s a Problem That Kids Have Been Deprived of Play During the Pandemic,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Europe

EU Threatens to Block Vaccine Exports to Britain

With less than a tenth of the European Union’s population vaccinated, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen threatened on Wednesday to ban exports of Covid-19 vaccines to Britain in order to safeguard doses for the bloc’s citizens. “We are in the crisis of the century,” von der Leyen told reporters. “We see the crest of a third wave forming in member states, and we know that we need to accelerate the vaccination rates” (Reuters). She said the flow of vaccines from the United States was smooth but that there was a lack of deliveries from AstraZeneca in Britain even as 10 million doses had been sent from EU plants to Britain. “We are still waiting for doses to come from the UK,” von der Leyen said, adding, “If this situation does not change, we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness. We will reflect on whether exports to countries with higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate.” British foreign minister Dominic Raab responded, saying, “I think it takes some explaining because the world’s watching... It also cuts across the direct assurances that we had from the Commission.” Raab told Reuters, “We expect those assurances and legal, contracted supply to be respected.”

EU Launches Vaccine Passports

On Wednesday the European Union launched an effort to create a vaccination passport for its more than 440 million citizens and residents in hopes of salvaging the summer tourism season (WaPo). Proponents of the vaccination passports hope that the “digital green certificates” will be ready by June and that they could serve as a model for the United States, Britain, and other countries. The certificates will be digital or paper documents that travelers can use to prove that they have been vaccinated, recently recovered for the virus, or tested negative right before departure. As a result, they could avoid quarantine obligations and move more freely between countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the aim in Europe is to have crucial information on travelers’ covid-19 status “mutually recognized in every member state.”But member states are left to determine what activities the passes would be mandatory for; Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said the “vaccinated should have full freedom” while other leaders see it as only useful for resuming European travel. Critics of the health passes say that the program is being launched prematurely, as vaccination efforts are held up across the bloc, and that they could create discriminatory practices. “Beyond being a distraction from the task of vaccination, the pass could end up creating a two-tier society,” Israel Butler of the Civil Liberties Union for Europe, a human rights watchdog, said in a response Wednesday.

Asia

Lockdowns May Have Led to a Rise in Child Deaths in South Asia

A report by UNICEF released on Wednesday said that South Asia recorded the deaths of 1.4 million children under the age of five in 2019, a number that included a possible 228,000 additional deaths due to a lack of access to medical care and food. Also, an additional 11,000 pregnant women may have died due to limited access to medical care in India, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, according to the report. “The generally restrictive measures taken to mitigate the Covid-19 outbreak have contributed to more deaths,” said Dr. Atnafu Getachew Asfaw, who led development of the report, which used national health data comparing people accessing essential services before and during the pandemic. While official figures on deaths could take years to be released, the report is the latest example of how the real toll of the pandemic is probably much higher than the current Covid-19 death counts. For example, in close to 60 countries that have figures for deaths last year, the number of deaths was more than 10% above average (WSJ). Less than two-thirds of the increase in deaths has been attributed directly to Covid-19. 

Surge in Covid-19 Cases in Maharashtra

India’s richest state, Maharashtra, is seeing a surge in new Covid-19 cases as the second wave of the virus begins its sweep across the country. The western state, which is home to India’s commercial capital Mumbai, reported 23,179 of the country’s 35,871 new cases in the past 24 hours (Reuters). It’s the country’s highest daily total in almost three months. Most economic activities reopened in Maharashtra in February and Mumbai’s suburban trains resumed service but earlier this week state officials ordered a new lockdown in some districts and put restrictions on cinemas, hotels, and restaurants until the end of this month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday asked state leaders to quickly increase testing and expand vaccination to “stop the emerging second peak of corona.” India has administered more than 36.5 million vaccine doses since starting its immunisation drive in the middle of January.

Seoul Defends Mandatory Tests for Foreign Workers

On Thursday officials in the South Korean capital of Seoul defended a controversial decision to order coronavirus tests for all foreign workers on penalty of fines. Health officials said Wednesday’s 15-day order for the testing is needed to blunt a rise in infections, despite criticism that the program is xenophobic and indiscriminate (Reuters). The proportion of foreigners among confirmed cases in Seoul rose to 6.3% in the March quarter, nearly three times the figure of 2.2% in the months of November and December last year, said Park Yoo-mi, a city quarantine officer. “Foreign workers are our neighbours, and the safety of the foreign workers is directly linked to the safety of the local community,” she told a news briefing. More than 100 coronavirus cases in the capital region were recently traced back to workplace community transmissions by foreign workers, Park added. Diplomats, university heads, and even some lawmakers have called for the order to be rescinded, saying it is a human rights violation and that there should be no separation of Korean nationals and foreigners when it comes to virus prevention measures.

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Newsom Plans to ‘Fight Like Hell’ to Save Political Legacy,” (Politico). 

IRS Expected to Delay Taxes Deadline by a Month

According to reports on Tuesday, the IRS will likely extend the deadline to file taxes by a month (Politico, CNN, WSJ). The IRS plans to delay the deadline to May 17. As a result of the pandemic, the IRS delayed the deadline last year until July 15, and there has been bipartisan support for a delay this year as well.

Poll Finds 72% Approve of Covid Relief Bill

According to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll, 72 percent of Americans approve of President Biden’s Covid relief bill (Politico). Twenty-one percent of poll respondents opposed the bill. The poll was conducted from March 12-15. Politico notes, “The results should not be compared with previous POLITICO/Morning Consult poll questions about the bill, since those questions described its contents. The new survey asked voters whether they supported or opposed ‘the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package that President Biden signed into law.’”

Trump Praises Coronavirus Vaccine

In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, former president Donald Trump encouraged Americans to follow his lead and get vaccinated against Covid-19 (Politico, WaPo, NYT). “I would recommend it to a lot of people that don't want to get it and a lot of those people voted for me, frankly,” Trump said. “But again, we have our freedoms and we have to live by that and I agree with that also. But it is a great vaccine. It is a safe vaccine and it is something that works.” Trump was vaccinated in January, but his team did not share this news until recently. 

Trump’s endorsement comes after several polls showed significant reluctance to get the vaccine among Republicans (NPR, CBS). Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Fox News Sunday that he thinks pro-vaccine messaging from Trump could decrease Republicans’ skepticism: “I think it would make all the difference in the world.”

On Monday, President Biden said he thinks anything Trump says to sway Republicans will be less effective than messaging from trusted community leaders. “I discussed it with my team, and they say the thing that has more impact than anything Trump would say to the MAGA folks is what the local doctor, what the local preachers, what the local people in the community say,” Biden said. 

Biden: If Sexual Harassment Allegations True, Cuomo Should Resign, Could Face Prosecution

On Tuesday in an interview with ABC’s George Stepanopoulos, President Joe Biden said that New York’s Democratic Governor should resign and could face prosecution if allegations of sexual harassment are true (Politico). Asked if Cuomo should resign if allegations are proven true, Biden stated, “Yes, I think he’ll probably end up being prosecuted, too,” adding later, “There could be a criminal prosecution attached to it, I just don’t know.” Politico writes, “Biden’s remarks in an interview excerpt released on Tuesday evening were his strongest to date on the ongoing scandal that has embroiled the New York governor in the past three weeks, with at least six women coming forward to accuse Cuomo of inappropriate behavior.” The comments come as Governor Cuomo faces a set of scandals over alleged sexual harassment but also his administration’s handling of Covid death data along with reports that an aide may have mixed efforts to maintain political support for the governor with discussions of the vaccination rollout. Bonus Read: “The Father, the Son and the Holy Cuomo Mess,” (WaPo).

Bonus Read: “A Year Into the Pandemic, Florida is Booming and Republican Gov. DeSantis is Taking Credit,” (CNN).

U.S. Economy

Toyota, Honda Close U.S. Factories Amid Supply Issues

On Wednesday, Toyota and Honda announced that they would halt production at North American factories due to supply chain disruptions (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, ”The disruptions underscore how a number of forces are coming together to squeeze the world’s supply chains: from the pandemic-driven rise in consumer demand for tech goods to a backlog of imports at clogged California ports and U.S. factory outages caused by severe weather. The timing is particularly concerning for manufacturers because the U.S. and some other economies are beginning to reopen thanks to vaccination campaigns.”

High Wood, Brick Prices Help Keep Housing Prices High

High prices for construction materials are helping keep housing prices high, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Lumber, one of the biggest costs in home-building after land and labor, has never been more expensive and is more than twice the typical price for this time of year. Crude oil, a starting point for paint, drain pipe, roof shingles and flooring, has shot up more than 80% since October. Copper, which carries water and electricity throughout houses, costs about a third more than it did in the autumn. Prices for granite, insulation, concrete blocks and common brick have all pushed to records in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s producer-price index.” The Journal notes that "materials producers like paintmaker Sherwin-Williams Co. and flooring manufacturer Mohawk Industries Inc. as well as builders D.R. Horton Inc. and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. have been raising prices to pass along higher costs.” The increase in construction material prices comes amid a surge in demand for housing during the pandemic in part driven by low mortgage interest rates.

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “D.C.’s Lost Year: How the Pandemic Upended Lives and Businesses Across a Region,” (WaPo).

Billions of Dollars in Pandemic Vouchers About to Expire

Billions of dollars in vouchers given out by airlines as the pandemic hit in compensation for disrupted travel are about to expire, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Consumers find themselves in a Catch-22 with soon-to-expire credits: Many don’t feel comfortable traveling yet. And even if they do, many borders remain closed. Extensions on vouchers given to consumers for canceled trips instead of refunds are drying up, and complicated terms make them difficult to use.” Many airlines have extended vouchers through the end of 2021, but the Journal notes that many don’t plan to travel this year. Others have not extended their deadlines to the end of 2021. Delta vouchers expire one year after purchase. The Journal writes, “United says it has $3.1 billion from Covid-19 cancellations, and ‘given the uncertainty of travel demand caused by Covid-19, a significant portion…may expire unused.’ Southwest says it’s holding about $2 billion in customer travel funds. The airline had just $110 million on the books at the end of 2019.”

Bonus Read: “How the NFL’s Pandemic Downturn Is Shaping Free Agency,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Fiona Lowenstein and Hannah Davis write that long haul Covid cases are a health crisis and not a rarity (NYT).

Derek Thompson writes on the importance of not repeating the testing failure that has hampered the U.S. pandemic response (Atlantic).

Jeet Heer argues that the stimulus bill shows that Senator Bernie Sanders is at the apex of his power (Nation).

Jim Geraghty believes that Europe is being too cautious about its vaccine rollout (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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