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October 29, 2020 - Brief Issue 113

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus beginning on November 3rd for election day, and will return to its regular schedule on November 5th.

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Top Headlines

Covid-19 Mortality Rates Drop; Experts Warn Overall Mortality Still a Significant Problem (Health & Science)

Hospitals Under Strain as Covid-19 Cases Surge; Some Regions Enact New Restrictions (Health & Science)

European Union Leaders Asked to Aid Transfer of Covid Patients Between Member States (Around the World)

France and Germany Announce New Restrictions; U.K. Doing Everything to Avoid Lockdown (Around the World)

Canada Says Pandemic Aid is “Limited” as Country Passes 10,000 Deaths (Around the World)

First Coronavirus Cases in the Marshall Islands (Around the World)

India Passes 8 Million Cases (Around the World)

Taiwan Celebrates 200 Days of No Local Infections (Around the World)

Kushner in April: Trump “Getting the Country Back from the Doctors” (U.S. Government & Politics)

White House Science Office Takes Credit for Ending Pandemic as Cases Surge and Break Records (U.S. Government & Politics)

FBI: Ransomware Assault Puts US Healthcare at Risk (U.S. Government & Politics)

Stocks Continue to Fall Amid Coronavirus Surge (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Fuels Boom in Demand for Spices (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 8,858,024 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 227,700 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,518,140 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 139,513,001 tests. Worldwide, there have been 44,495,972 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,174,225 deaths. At least 30,058,850 people have recovered from the virus. 

Covid-19 Mortality Rates Drop; Experts Warn Overall Mortality Still a Significant Problem

As the United States and Europe face another wave of Covid-19 infections, one bright spot seems to be a declining mortality rate from the virus (CNN). Even after several weeks of rising cases, deaths do not appear to be rising as quickly as they did at the start of the pandemic. Research out of the U.K. shows that the mortality rate from Covid-19 was approximately 3% in June and now stands at about 0.75%. The U.S. has seen a similar trend (CNBC).

There are several possible reasons for this. For one, the virus is infecting younger, lower-risk people at higher rates. The median age of those infected in Europe dropped from 54 in the early months of 2020 to 39 by midsummer, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Treatments are also improving as physicians and scientists learn more about the disease. The mortality rate at the beginning of the pandemic was also likely somewhat inflated, since testing capabilities were limited and only those with serious symptoms were tested.

Despite declining mortality rates, experts still warn that rising rates of Covid-19 infection are not to be taken lightly. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, said on Friday, “Mortality is going to be going down, but we’re going to be infecting so many people that the daily death statistics are going to be staggering” (CNBC). Current projections estimate another 150,000 deaths by February (IHME).

Hospitals Under Strain as Covid-19 Cases Surge; Some Regions Enact New Restrictions

As the U.S. struggles to control surging Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations are also rising, increasing by approximately 46% over the past month (NYT). Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of health and leader of the government’s Covid-19 testing efforts, said Wednesday that “we are at another critical point in the pandemic response.” In contrast to President Trump, Giroir pointed to the rise in hospitalizations as evidence that the rise in case numbers could not be explained by increased testing alone (CNBC).

As virtually every region of the United States reports rising Covid-19 cases, smaller regional hospitals feel the burdens most acutely. Many hospitals in smaller metropolitan and rural areas are unequipped to handle a large influx of patients. In El Paso, some patients have been airlifted to San Antonio, 500 miles away, in order to relieve the strain. Hospitals in Idaho, Missouri, New Mexico, and Utah are experiencing similar overloads.

Although states have been avoiding new lockdown policies, some leaders have felt little recourse as case numbers and hospitalizations rise. In Newark, all nonessential businesses are now subject to an 8 p.m. curfew. Chicago implemented similar curfews and restricted indoor bar service. Fargo, N.D. is under the first mask mandate in the state. And in Idaho, reopening was halted and new restrictions placed on bars and restaurants. Adm. Giroir emphasized the importance of following public health recommendations, saying that if people did not take precautions, “it may force local officials or government officials in the states to have more draconian measures.”

Airlines Insist Flying is Safe; Research Not So Sure

Despite advice by health experts encouraging people to limit travel, airlines are eager to attract customers again as the holidays approach. A handful of recent studies funded by airlines and airline manufacturers have concluded that air travel poses a relatively low risk of Covid-19 transmission (USA Today, CNN). The most recent, a 187-page report from Harvard that was sponsored by Airlines for America and a group of manufacturers and airport operators, concluded that, with mitigation tactics such as enforcement of masks and physical distancing, air travel could be less risky than everyday activities like grocery shopping.

However, not all reports agree. A case study published in the journal Eurosurveillance traced a 59-person outbreak to a low-occupancy flight to Ireland over the summer. Thirteen of the 59 cases were traced to the 7-hour flight, with spread occurring to 46 additional people across Ireland. Airlines contend that most cases of transmission on flights occurred early in the pandemic before mask requirements and other safety standards went into effect. The Ireland outbreak was notable in that safety measures were already in place, including distancing and mask requirements.

Dr. Christopher Sanford, founder of the travel medicine clinic at the University of Washington Medical Center, called the risk of contracting Covid-19 on a flight, “low, but it’s not zero.” Sanford advises travelers to consider all the factors before deciding whether to fly, and to always wear a mask. 

Bonus Read: “The Hidden Covid-19 Health Crisis: Elderly People are Dying from Isolation;” (NBC).

Around the World

Europe

European Union Leaders Asked to Aid Transfer of Covid Patients Between Member States

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, asked EU leaders to aid Brussels by mapping intensive care bed capacity and allowing for the transfer of Covid-19 patients from overrun hospitals across Europe (Guardian). Belgium is expected to run out of intensive care beds within two weeks and the Netherlands has already been airlifting patients to Germany. Almost half of France’s intensive care unit capacity is taken up by coronavirus cases. Von der Leyen is meeting with the 27 heads of state and government officials via video conference on Thursday when she will also campaign for more data sharing at the EU level to promote transparency and improve coordination between member states. She said, “We’ve all learned that just taking a national approach very quickly reaches its limits.”

France and Germany Announce New Restrictions; U.K. Doing Everything to Avoid Lockdown

On Wednesday evening German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed that the country would enter “lockdown light” starting on Nov. 3 and lasting for two weeks (DW). All restaurants and bars will be forced to close, theaters, gyms, and cosmetic studios will not be allowed to operate, and no fans will be allowed at sporting events. Only members of two households will be permitted to meet in public and groups will be limited to 10 people. Supermarkets, retail stores, schools, and day care centers will remain open. “Within weeks we will reach the limits of our health system,” Ms. Merkel said at a news conference, after she reached agreement with Germany’s 16 governors on the nationwide measures. She conceded the new measures were hard, but necessary: “It is completely clear that we must act, and act now to prevent a national health crisis” (NYT). 

Also on Wednesday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the country would enter a new nationwide lockdown that would last until Dec. 1 (Guardian).This lockdown closely resembles the eight-week lockdown that was enforced in the spring: signed documents will be needed for people to leave home and traveling between regions will be impossible (Reuters). People will only be allowed to leave the house to buy essential goods, visit a doctor, or use their daily allotment of one-hour of outdoor exercise. However, most schools will remain open and working from home will be generalized. France reported 523 new deaths from Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, the highest daily toll since April. 

Meanwhile, in the U.K., the housing minister, Robert Jenrick, said on Thursday that the British government is doing everything it can to avoid a second national lockdown (Reuters). Public pressure is mounting in favor of amping up restrictions after France and Germany did so and following the publication of a study by the Imperial College of London that showed nearly 100,000 people were catching the virus each day in the UK (BBC). But the government is attempting to control the spread with local lockdowns instead of national ones in hopes of keeping the majority of the economy intact. Currently, a national "firebreak" lockdown is ongoing in Wales, while Northern Ireland has tightened restrictions, including closing schools, and Scotland will later confirm details of a new tiered alert system (BBC). Bonus Read: “Gloom Settles Over Europe as Days Darken and Coronavirus Surges,” (WaPo).

The Americas

Canada Says Pandemic Aid is “Limited” as Country Passes 10,000 Deaths

On Wednesday Canada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, said for the first time that federal aid to households and businesses has limits, and the Bank of Canada warned of a “long slog” towards economic recovery (Reuters). Speaking at an economic forum in Toronto, Freeland said: “Our fiscally expansive approach to fighting the coronavirus cannot and will not be infinite. It is limited and temporary.” But Freeland added that the government will deliver a “targeted, carefully thought-out investment” later this year. Her remarks came after the central bank projected that a second wave of infections would hurt Canada’s near-term growth. The Central Bank of Canada expects economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. The death toll in Canada rose to over 10,000 on Wednesday and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau predicted: “This is going to be a rough winter” (Guardian).

Asia and the Pacific

First Coronavirus Cases in the Marshall Islands 

The Marshall Islands in the Pacific has confirmed its first Covid-19 cases, ending the archipelago’s status as one of the few nations in the world to be virus free (Guardian). Two workers at a U.S. army garrison on Kwajalein Atoll tested positive. They flew via a military flight from Hawaii on Tuesday and did not have any community contact during their time in the Marshalls. They are currently in quarantine. The remote island nationals and territories of Kiribati, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu are all still believed to be virus free.

India Passes 8 Million Cases

India’s confirmed number of coronavirus cases has surpassed 8 million, the second country in the world to pass the milestone, after the U.S., which has confirmed more than 8.8 million cases (AP). On Thursday, the Indian health ministry reported 49,881 infections and 517 fatalities in the past 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 120,527. India recorded its first million cases by mid-July, then cases surged to 5 million in just two months. 

Taiwan Celebrates 200 Days of No Local Infections

On Thursday, Taiwan marked its 200th day with no locally transmitted coronavirus infections, a milestone no other nation has reached (WaPo). The country of more than 23 million people has confirmed only 550 cases and seven fatalities to date. Experts attribute the country’s success to the seriousness with which it took the virus from the outset. Taiwan began screening passengers on flights from Wuhan in late December. By late January, the government was tracking patients with respiratory issues and testing them for coronavirus. Taiwan also heavily tracked people who entered the country to ensure they were complying with the quarantine rules. The Lancet also notes that the country “had an established culture of face mask use.”

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “How the Surging Virus Has Crashed Into Campaigning in Every Imaginable Way,” (NYT). 

Kushner in April: Trump “Getting the Country Back from the Doctors”

In the latest revelation from investigative reporter Bob Woodward’s reporting for his book Fear, new audio from April 2020 shows White House Senior Adviser and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner praising Trump for taking back control of the coronavirus response from doctors (CNN, Politico). Kushner told Woodward in an interview that Trump was “getting the country back from the doctors” calling it the “beginning of the comeback phase.” Kushner said, “That doesn't mean there's not still a lot of pain and there won't be pain for a while, but that basically was, we've now put out rules to get back to work,” adding, “Trump's now back in charge. It's not the doctors.” Kushner’s comments add to previous revelations from Woodward’s interviews with Trump that showed him expressing great concern about the pandemic’s danger in private at a time he was downplaying it - often in explicitly contradictory terms - to the public.

White House Science Office Takes Credit for Ending Pandemic as Cases Surge and Break Records

Even as the number of coronavirus cases in the United States is surging and breaking new records, the White House’s science policy office included “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” at the top of a list of President Trump’s accomplishments (Politico). The Office of Science and Technology Policy described “decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease.” The false claim of ending the pandemic comes as the Vice President’s office wrestles with an outbreak among the Vice President’s close aides, and as the U.S. saw record numbers of cases last week, adding more than half a million new cases in a single week (NYT, Johns Hopkins).

FBI: Ransomware Assault Puts US Healthcare at Risk

In a joint alert issued on Wednesday, the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Health and Human Services warned that they had “credible information of an increased and imminent cybercrime threat to U.S. hospitals and healthcare providers” (AP). Cybercriminals are taking advantage of the chaos caused by the pandemic to unleash a wave of data-scrambling extortion attempts against hospital information systems that could disrupt patient care. The attacks involve ransomware, which scrambles data into gibberish that can only be interpreted with software keys provided by the criminal after a payment is received. Security experts say that these types of attacks have already hobbled five U.S. hospitals this week and could possibly affect hundreds more. 

HHS Staffers Jumping Ship

Department of Health and Human Services staffers are leaving the administration or preparing to leave in large numbers, according to a report in Politico on Monday (Politico). Politico writes, “At least 27 political appointees have exited the embattled Health and Human Services department since the start of the Covid-19 crisis in February, according to a POLITICO review, and senior leaders are bracing for dozens more officials to depart swiftly if President Donald Trump loses re-election.” The exodus comes at a time when cases are surging and when vaccine developments are expected to progress requiring government management and decisions. One senior official told Politico, “There will be a mass exodus should the election go the other way,” meaning if Trump loses. An HHS spokesperson told Politico, “We have no comment on the various hypothetical situations you pose,” adding, “Every member of the HHS political team is focused on combating the COVID-19 pandemic and advancing the Trump Administration’s healthcare agenda.”

U.S. Economy

Stocks Continue to Fall Amid Coronavirus Surge

The stock market continued to fall on Wednesday amid concern over surging coronavirus cases in the United States (WSJ, NYT, NPR). The Wall Street Journal reports, “All three major indexes were on pace for their worst week since the week ending March 20. The Dow industrials lost 821 points, or 3%, on pace for its fourth losing session in a row. The S&P 500 fell 3%, suggesting the broad index will retreat for its third consecutive session. The benchmark has slipped more than 7% from its record closing level in early September and its gains for the year now stand around 1.8%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.1%.” According to NPR, the losses accelerated following news of new lockdown procedures in Germany. As we covered in Monday’s brief, the market had already posted declines amid news that a stimulus bill would not be forthcoming before the election. The Washington Post notes that the weeks-long decline in the market, which accelerated beginning on Monday, has the potential to “muddle” Trump’s campaign message on the economy as the election approaches (WaPo).

Boeing to Cut 11,000 More Jobs 

Boeing will cut 11,000 more jobs with 7,000 in the form of layoffs (WSJ). On Wednesday, the company’s executives said it did not expect to generate cash until 2021 when it will turn over 450 undelivered 737 MAX jets that are yet undelivered. The job cuts come atop previously announced cuts of about 20,000 jobs, and the company expects to end the year with about 130,000 workers. That is about 40% fewer employees than the company had in 1997 when it merged with McDonnel Douglas. 

UPS Domestic Profits Fall Even as Package Volume Increases

United Parcel Service (UPS) is seeing declining domestic profits even as it handles more packages as a result of the pandemic, according to a report Wednesday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The delivery giant said revenue rose nearly 16% in the third quarter and profit rose 11.8% amid an influx of packages moving domestically and internationally during the pandemic. Despite the boost, UPS’s large domestic business posted a sharp decline in profits due to the need to hire tens of thousands of new workers, lower margins from delivering packages to homes and $179 million in spending to speed up delivery times.” 

Bonus Read: “Mastercard’s Revenue Hurt by Distancing, Border Restrictions,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Pandemic Fuels Boom in Demand for Spices

The pandemic has fueled a spike in demand for spices, according to a report Wednesday in the Washington Post (WaPo). Bill Penzey, who owns Penzey’s Spices, told the Post that he has seen an increase in demand, adding, “People are cooking to get in touch with who they are in these times of stress.” The Post writes, “There are several things going on. More meals are being prepared at home, which has led consumers to reinforce their existing herb and spice pantry. Also, more young or first-time cooks are taking the plunge and laying in seasonings beyond salt and pepper.” In addition, Darren Seifer, a food and beverage analyst with market research NPD Group, told the Post that people may also be buying more spices as they seek to replace the flavors available at international restaurants. McCormick & Co. recorded a 35% increase in its spice sales this year. The Post also notes, ‘According to the NPD Group, national consumption of spices, seasonings, marinades and rubs was up over 50 percent in July 2020, the most recent month for which data is available, compared with July 2019. Much of the increase has been seen at breakfast and lunch, two meals historically eaten away from home.”

Bonus Reads: “Khloe Kardashian Reveals She Had Coronavirus,” (CNN) and “Kim Kardashian’s Birthday Getaway Can’t Escape the Pandemic,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Ed Yong argues that the presidential election will determine the future path of the pandemic, and if Trump is reelected, he will continue to downplay the virus (Atlantic).

Sanya Dosani, Alexander Stockton, and Adam Westbrook argue the U.S. has played a successful role in defeating the virus -- just not in the U.S. (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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