Good morning. Today, a controversial company tries to reframe its image.

Kalshi is tired of getting mixed up with rival prediction-market prospector Polymarket, The WSJ Leadership Institute’s Katie Deighton writes for the newsletter, and hopes an ad push will help draw a line between them.

Posters targeting lawmakers and policy leaders across Washington, D.C., highlight “rules” regarding what Kalshi does and doesn’t do, like “Kalshi bans insider trading” and, on a more dystopian note, “We don’t do death markets.” They all end with the tag line, “Because Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange.”

The ads, which make up Kalshi’s first out-of-home campaign promoting its brand rather than its odds, appear after a period of sustained heat on prediction markets, which let people place wagers on the chances of pretty much anything happening.

Critics have accused prediction-market operators of encouraging gambling among young people, turning a blind eye to insider trading and letting users place bets on war and death. Last week two senators introduced a bipartisan bill aiming at banning sports bets on prediction markets.

“Kalshi and Polymarket” often appear as an inextricable duo in press coverage of the online prediction industry, including in articles last week on the companies’ moves against insider trading.

With the ad blast, which includes a full-page buy in the Washington Post, Kalshi aims to set its brand apart.

“There’s been some confusion and conflation between us and our competitor, so we’re calling those distinctions out,” a spokeswoman told me.

Polymarket’s platform is currently off-limits to U.S. users but can be accessed by anyone with a VPN, which can disguise location. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment on Kalshi’s ad campaign.

Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

Nestlé swears this has nothing to do with April Fool’s, but I’ll be watching:

The communications department at Nestlé and some unrelated brands are trying to capitalize on the theft of a truck full of KitKat products, Natasha Khan and Kelly Cloonan report for The Journal.

“We’ve always encouraged people to have a break with KitKat—but it seems thieves have taken the message too literally and made a break with more than 12 metric tons of our chocolate,” the company said in a statement.

Taking their cue from Nestlé, other companies soon had something to say.

“We would like to share our thoughts and condolences with Kit Kat following their sad news,” an account for Domino’s Pizza in the U.K. posted Monday morning. Then, it added, “On a completely unrelated note, we’re pleased to announce we’ll now be selling a new Kit Kat pizza.”

Ryanair reposted a statement from the official KitKat account on X (making the more sober points that “there are no concerns for consumer safety, and supply is not affected”) with an image of a guilty-looking plane with a mouth full of KitKat bars.

Social-media interlopers should remember a few rules:

• Brands need to move before any semblance of spontaneity is lost. “If you’re the fifth or sixth to jump on the bandwagon here, you’re toast,” said Allen Adamson, co-founder of marketing consultancy Metaforce.
• They should either be jokers online or not. The Domino’s and Ryanair posts worked because they fit the brands’ images over time. “You have to know what your swim lane is,” Adamson said.
• And the subject can’t be too serious. Weighing in on a chocolate caper luckily seems pretty low-risk, said Davia Temin, founder of reputation and crisis management consultancy Temin and Company. “It’s chocolate, it’s Easter,” Temin said. “I don’t think you can go too wrong.”

The American Heart Association vs. RFK Jr. New nutrition guidance on Tuesday morning from the American Heart Association advises consumers to get protein from plants rather than meat, choose low-fat or fat-free dairy and use olive, soybean and canola oils instead of beef tallow and butter. The recommendations contrast with dietary guidelines issued in January by the Health and Human Services Department under Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 

A potential new food giant. Unilever is in advanced talks to combine its food business with spice-maker McCormick in a deal that would create a new food marketer worth roughly $60 billion, including debt. The move would concentrate Unilever’s portfolio on beauty, personal-care and home products and continue a trend of consumer conglomerates streamlining their businesses.

The NFL’s preparations for a possible referee lockout. The most popular product on television and the officials who make calls on the plays are haggling over money and the league’s vision to improve officiating quality. The previous ref lockout only ended after an infamous botched call by replacement officials that became known as the Fail Mary. The backdrop is a game in which every play is more scrutinized than ever, including by fans who can make bets on any given pass or run.

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