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Carlyle Sees Minimal Software Concerns | PE Stock Dip Dissected

By Luis Garcia

 

Good morning! The earnings season for publicly traded private-equity managers ends today with an expected report from Apollo.

On Friday, Carlyle leaders said the firm is largely immune to the issues that fomented the market turbulence in software stocks last week, my colleague Chris Cumming reports. Other big publicly traded private-equity and credit firms also downplayed their exposure to the sector earlier in the week.

On the same topic, the Journal’s Telis Demos sheds more light on the factors that drove a decline in private-equity firm stocks as fears of AI's threat to software makers and their backers spread. Shares of most of the biggest private asset managers rebounded Friday, along with the rest of the market.

We have those stories and more news below. Please, read on …

 
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Today's Top Stories

Carlyle’s fourth-quarter net income jumped 70% to $358.1 million. PHOTO: JEENAH MOON/REUTERS

Carlyle Group leaders expect the firm to be mostly unscathed by the recent market turmoil that has gripped software businesses and their lenders, noting that only 6% of their assets under management are in software, WSJ Pro's Chris Cumming writes. The Washington-based firm narrowly outpaced Wall Street’s fourth-quarter expectations, with both profit and revenue rising compared with the year-earlier quarter. Chief Executive Harvey Schwartz played down the volatility that engulfed the software sector in recent days over fears that artificial-intelligence tools would supplant existing products.

With fears erupting that software companies will be disrupted by artificial intelligence, investors in private asset managers are shooting first and asking questions later, Telis Demos writes for the Journal. Private investment firms have piled into the software industry in recent years. At the end of 2025, almost 9% of private-equity backed companies were in the software market, according to data provider PitchBook. The exposure is even more significant on the loan side: Within the private-credit universe tracked by ratings firm KBRA, about 17% of borrowers are classified as software companies, representing about 22% of the $1 trillion-plus debt exposure in that universe overall.

 
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Big Number

$595 Billion

The value of global infrastructure M&A deals last year, up about 63% from 2024 and surpassing a recent high reached in 2022, according to Infralogic data cited by Guggenheim Securities

 

Deals

Blackstone is in the processing of acquiring the New Mexico's power utility in a nearly $5.7 billion. PHOTO: THOMAS FULLER / SOPA IMAGES VIA ZUMA PRESS WIRE

Blackstone's nearly $5.7 billion acquisition of power holding company TXNM Energy for $61.25 a share in cash has received approval from regulators in Texas, where the Albuquerque, N.M., company provides electricity to some of its roughly 800,000 customers. The deal with the New York firm's infrastructure strategy has been accepted by shareholders and carries an enterprise value of $11.5 billion. Some federal and New Mexico state regulators still haven't approved the deal. Regulatory concerns scuttled an earlier sale to a strategic buyer in 2021.

Foresight Group in London is backing supply-chain intelligence services provider AsiaVerify with a growth investment. The Singapore-based company supplies information on ownership structures, risk indicators and compliance data on around 447 million businesses operating in 14 Asian nations.

Buyout firm TPG is acquiring a majority interest in Sabre Industries from Blackstone, investing through its Rise Climate impact strategy. The Alvarado, Texas-based company designs and manufactures major structures and components for electric utilities, wireless telecommunications companies and others. Blackstone held the business through its energy transition strategy, first investing in 2021, and is retaining a significant stake.

Vista Equity Partners, a specialist in backing software businesses, is leading a more than $350 million growth investment in artificial intelligence chip designer SambaNova Systems, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Vista is joining with Cambium Capital to invest in the deal, while logic circuit maker Intel, an existing investor in the startup, may add as much as $150 million to its commitment. SambaNova is focused on developing inference chips used in AI systems to compete with Nvidia.

Insurer American International Group in New York has acquired minority stake in Onex Corp. and bought specialty insurer Convex Group alongside Onex in a $7 billion deal. AIG is paying about $2.1 billion for a 35% stake in Convex and about $642 million for a 9.9% interest in Toronto-listed asset manager Onex, which has become the majority owner of Convex, a commercial insurer, acquiring a 63% interest. 

Recently formed Otro Capital is in the final stages of cementing a deal with the University of Utah's sports department to invest as much as $500 million, the Salt Lake Tribune reported Friday, citing a statement from the public school. A bill introduced in the state legislature that would require legislative review of such deals isn't likely to take effect before the transaction with the New York private-equity firm is completed, the newspaper said. University trustees approved the deal in December. Otro recently closed its debut fund with about $1.2 billion in committed capital, including parallel vehicles.

Nuveen is backing the spinout of the water and waste-water treatment business of Upwell Water with a significant investment. The newly named operations, called TurnClear, offers services on a monthly payment basis, using decentralized treatment assets.

 

Add-On Deals

Our add-on deal interactive tool allows you to sort and analyze volumes of add-on deal data compiled by WSJ Pro. View more.

 
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Exits

Macquarie Group's asset management arm is gearing up to sell the biggest container-handling facility at America’s busiest East Coast port, Paul Berger reports for the Journal. Macquarie hasn’t launched an official sale process, but a person familiar with the discussions says talks with prospective buyers are accelerating after Macquarie recently secured a 33-year lease extension for Maher Terminals, a 450-acre site at the Port of New York and New Jersey. People familiar with the matter say the sale price could top $3 billion. Macquarie Asset Management holds Maher in its Macquarie Infrastructure Partners III fund, which the firm is winding down.

Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile plans to put some distance between its planned initial public offering and recent market turmoil affecting software company shares, Liz Moyer reports for sister publication Barron's, citing a statement from the company. Based in Redwood City, Calif., the developer of advertising technology plans to sell 25.4 million shares at $26 to $30 each “when timing and conditions best support our long-term vision,” the company said. Blackstone had a 57% equity stake in the business while General Atlantic held about 16% when the company registered for the offering.

 

Industry News

Veradermics, which is developing a hair-growth drug in late-stage clinical trials, made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. PHOTO: MICHAEL NAGLE / BLOOMBERG NEWS

Biotechnology companies that went public last week signaled a resurgence for initial public offerings and venture-capital investment in the sector this year, Brian Gormley reports for WSJ Pro. Biotech IPOs started strong in 2025, but tariffs and cutbacks at the Food and Drug Administration later sidelined investors and startups. Last year, 11 venture-backed biotechs went public in the U.S., half as many as in 2024 and the lowest figure in more than a decade, according to market tracker PitchBook.

Business development company Golub Capital BDC is a longtime lender to the software industry. So, not surprisingly, its earnings call dwelled on last week’s software AI apocalypse, Bill Alpert reports for sister publication Barron's. The Golub BDC—a lender to midsize businesses backed by private equity—has faced other headwinds as well. Falling base interest rates have pulled down the floating rates it charges. Interest rate spreads are at five-year lows.

Private-equity firms are making vast profits from investing in clinics that assess and treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism in tens of thousands of patients served by Britain's National Health Service, Eleanor Hayward reports for sister publication The Times in London. The NHS has become dependent on privately run diagnostic and treatment services for these conditions, leading to an “exponential” growth in ADHD spending which is “blowing NHS budgets,” with over half a million people on waiting lists for diagnostic assessments.

Regulators in the United Arab Emirates slapped Ark Capital Management (Dubai) with a fine equivalent to $504,000 for transactions regarded as abusing the market and for failing to notify the Dubai Financial Services Authority of a potential change in control of the firm. Ark didn't notify the authority of a proposed 2021 agreement to sell a 9.5% stake with the possibility of selling up to 90% later, the regulator said, adding that no change of control actually took place.

 
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About Us

Send us your tips, suggestions and feedback. Write to:

Maria Armental; Ted Bunker; Chris Cumming; Luis Garcia; Laura Kreutzer; Isaac Taylor; Chitra Vemuri.

 
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