Today: The conflict in the Middle East could lead to higher prices at the pump; emissions planning beyond Trump is proving tricky for companies; EU to tell member states to back the bloc's low-carbon manufacturing.

Welcome back: Prices for energy are soaring, but the longer-term impact of the war in the Middle East on businesses and countries—especially the energy-producing nations caught in the crossfire—remains to be seen.

The escalation threatens the region’s broader ambitions, including Saudi Arabia’s multitrillion-dollar plan to diversify away from oil. The plan—known as Vision 2030—was already facing many revisions and delays before the Iran conflict due to growing budgetary pressures. The initiative increasingly relied on foreign investors to bridge the funding gap, but a prolonged war could put that at risk.

• Now oil prices are surging and the disruption to the global oil market has already injected volatility into gasoline prices, which jumped to $3.20 a gallon, up 20 cents since the start of the week, according to AAA.
• Global oil prices would likely hit $100 if exports via the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in the Persian Gulf remain subdued for several weeks, Goldman Sachs analysts​ say. 
• Were that to happen, the increase in inflation would likely make the Federal Reserve less willing to cut interest rates, according to analysts. Higher inflation would squeeze Americans’ incomes, and in turn their spending, which is the main driver of economic growth. It would also hit companies who have to spend more to make things. 
• European natural gas prices surged nearly 40% Tuesday after a production halt at the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar rattled markets. High gas prices force countries to look at other energy options. 
• Coal is benefiting because it isn’t directly affected in this conflict—unlike the other resources it competes against. Coal is a substitute in electricity generation. When natural-gas prices get too expensive or natural gas supplies are threatened, utilities often turn to coal instead.

The Gulf’s costly gamble to build a post-oil future is itself facing trial by combat. After years—and hundreds of billions of dollars—spent transforming the region, those aspirations are under fire.

Companies say President Trump’s climate overhaul is making it tough to frame their future emissions plans and prepare for what they see as inevitable environmental restrictions—particularly as their goals extend beyond the president’s term.

In recent annual reports delivered to investors, U.S. companies said that, despite the Trump administration’s easing of environmental rules, businesses will still need to plan to lower their emissions to meet standards in the long term, Clara Hudson writes.

ConocoPhillips said in its recent 10-K report that, while the administration has moved to dismantle some climate regulations, “these policy swings create additional uncertainty for companies who need to plan for operations that will endure through administrations.”

Exxon Mobil took a bolder stance. “Without supportive policies and the innovations they drive, net zero will remain out of reach—for society and for Exxon Mobil,” the company said in its 10-K, adding “society’s progress continues to lag in these areas.”

Many companies are also in a tricky spot because the Trump administration’s climate policy changes don’t match the assertions businesses have been voicing for years: that it’s essential to lower emissions to protect their business and public welfare.

The European Union’s top industry official proposed new rules designed to support companies manufacturing low-carbon technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries in Europe, as the bloc’s industries compete with cheaper Chinese rivals, Edith Hancock reports.

EU Commissioner Stephane Sejourne on Wednesday unveiled the Industrial Accelerator Act, which seeks to boost EU manufacturing by fast-tracking permitting and setting minimum requirements for certain components to be made in Europe or made by majority European-owned businesses.

The bill envisages introducing a green label for steel to give buyers information on the carbon intensity of products, setting low-carbon and EU-origin content requirements in public procurement procedures and putting guardrails around foreign investments from companies that hold a significant chunk of global production capacity for emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar and critical raw materials.

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• BlackRock, EQT-led consortium to acquire AES for $10.7 Billion, as AI data center buildout fuels surging demand for power generation. (WSJ)
   
• A federal judge has rejected the Trump administration’s efforts to terminate New York City’s congestion-pricing program. (WSJ)
   
• Volvo Car is preparing to increase production of its fully electric EX60 SUV to meet strong demand. (WSJ)
   
• Ship owners, port operators and logistics firms are urging governments to push ahead on a global shipping emissions deal. (FT)
   
• A crisis in the Alps: Airbnb, climate change and Americans. (NYT)
   
• How China built a big lead in global race for batteries that last for days. (Bloomberg)
   
• Showdown over datacenter politics at heart of North Carolina primary. (Guardian)
   
• Oil Is surging. Clean energy stocks are down anyway. (Heatmap)

WSJ Pro Sustainable Business gives you an inside look at how companies are tackling sustainability. Send your comments to editor Perry Cleveland-Peck at perry.cleveland-peck@wsj.com and reporters Clara Hudson at clara.hudson@wsj.com and Yusuf Khan at yusuf.khan@wsj.com. Follow us on LinkedIn at perrycp, clara-hudson and yusuf_khan.