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ECB’s Next Move Is Likely A Rate Rise, But Timing Unclear, Says Villeroy

  • The head of the Bank of France said the European Central Bank’s next interest rate change is likely upwards, but timing is uncertain.
  • Eurozone inflation picked up to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, with the ECB forecasting 3.5% under an adverse scenario.
  • Francois Villeroy de Galhau warned against raising the key rate too soon, noting core inflation remained under control.

 
China Service Sector Gauge Signals Slower But Continued Growth as Risks Rise

  • China’s RatingDog Services PMI fell to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February, but remained in expansion for over three years.
  • Domestic markets drove service sector demand, and businesses remained upbeat on the 12-month outlook despite external risks.
  • Profit margins remained under pressure, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
Trade Deficit Grew in February as Policy Continued to Swing

  • The U.S. trade deficit increased to $57.3 billion in February, a 4.9% rise from January, amid fast-changing U.S. policy.
  • The Supreme Court overturned a primary part of President Trump’s tariff agenda on Feb. 20, citing a lack of clear congressional authority.
  • President Trump quickly enacted new tariffs under a different statute, which will expire in July, while seeking other ways to add duties.
U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Unexpectedly Last Week

  • U.S. jobless claims fell to 202,000 in the week through March 28, down 9,000, indicating job market resilience.
  • Continuing claims rose to 1.841 million through March 21, but the four-week average was lowest since September 2024.
  • Economists expect 59,000 new jobs for March, recovering February’s losses, with an unchanged 4.4% unemployment rate.
U.S. Regulator Sues Three States in Defense of Prediction Markets

  • The CFTC sued Illinois and Connecticut over their attempts to ban sports and elections-related betting on Kalshi and other platforms
  • Many states have sent cease-and-desist orders to the platforms, saying their operations violate state gambling laws.
  • In civil complaints filed Thursday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission argued that it had the sole authority to regulate the contracts offered by Kalshi and others.
 

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