Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

(2/5/2018)

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Reader,

Welcome to Asia in Review (AiR) which brings you comprehensive information on latest developments in constitutional law, international relations and geopolitics after a particular interesting week.

In Malaysia, national elections turned out to be a real earthquake ending the political dominance of the political party that has uninterruptedly governed the country since its independence in 1957. The stunning victory of 92-year young former Prime minister Mahathir, who defected from his party to reunite with his old frenemy, still imprisoned former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, might bring dramatic change to the country. It might, moreover, also send a strong signal to other countries telling what a joint opposition can do.

In geopolitics, two developments stand out, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the ‘East Asian Spring’ in context of the North Korean announcement to denuclearize. While the latter still has to prove its actual impact, the former has significantly weakened the US voice in the current global concert for the time being. Very interesting for the shifting Asian geopolitical order regarding Iran, even if not in the geographical scope of AiR in the strict sense, are the Sunday elections in Iraq. The results are not yet clear but could well reinforce the Iranian influence in the region if one of the two pro-Iranian candidates will win.

With this, the AiR team wishes you a good a read.

Best regards

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

Former rising star and Politburo member Sun Zhengcai sentenced to life for graft  

(hg) Sun Zhengcai, once tipped to be among China’s next generation of leaders, was sentenced to life in prison for bribery - all in all US$26.7 million -, stripped of his political rights for life and all his property. Sun declared not to appeal pleading guilty to the crimes that would have been punishable by death saying: “I sincerely confess to and regret the crimes [I committed]. [I] accept the court’s verdict [and] will not appeal,” and: “I will earnestly accept re-education.”

Sun committed the crimes as district Communist Party boss in Beijing in 2002, minister of agriculture, and party chief of the northeastern province of Jilin and Chongqing helping to win project tenders, secure government approval for projects and gain promotions. He was sacked as party boss of the strategic important mega-city Chongqing in July in the run-up to the party’s national leadership reshuffle in October last year. He was the youngest member of the Politburo before he was expelled, considered a strong candidate to sit on the Politburo Standing Committee, the Chinese leadership’s inner sanctum, and become China’s premier. [SCMP 1]

Sun´s downfall followed that of party heavyweight Bo Xilai, his predecessor as party chief in Chongqing, and an ongoing purge of the local party leadership.

Recently, a senior police leader, the chief of Fuling district police, Zhou Jingping, became a target of an internal probe. Zhou was once a close aide of Bo’s police chief and right-hand man Wang Lijun but fell out with Wang in mid-2011 short before Bo and Wang’s downfall in 2012.

The prolonged crackdown on “pernicious influences” in Chongqing has to be seen as a message to all Chinese provincial leaders, “[…] loud and clear: local leaders should pledge absolute loyalty to the central leadership,” and: “Xi is now the unchallenged core of the party, […], the political future of provincial leaders should be decided by, and only by, the central leadership - they have no room to think for themselves.” [SCMP 1]

Another article reflects on occasion of the Sun case and comparing it with those of the 2013 Bo Xilai case on the Chinese version of the rule by law. Bo´s case gripped the nation and made headlines around the world. Back then, some hailed the trial as an expression of a new rule of law, largely due to the unusual transparency by which the trial was conducted. In a remarkable contrast to Bo’s five-day trial, Sun’s lasted less than half a day, merely announced on Sina Weibo in the morning before it started without broadcasting any of the proceedings. [SCMP 2]

The contrast between the cases does arguably not point to a decline of the rule of law rather than to variations of the way politically relevant cases are handled, be it as extensively presented show trials or shaped by secret arrests, hurried proceedings and secrecy.

China's anti foreign spies campaign  

(hg) Under President Xie national security has become a core part of state policy and his own legacy with a series of national security laws having been passed that broaden the government’s already impressive powers to monitor and investigate everyone and everything deemed a threat to stability, focusing largely already on ideas and opinions. Late last year the counter-espionage law has been amended to widen definitions of punishable behavior making foreign individuals or groups punishable for fabricating, distorting facts, or issuing information that harm China’s national security.

The [Guardian] reports on an anti-spying campaign that warns citizens of spying foreigners disguising who they really are, calling the public not to be tricked by foreign academics, English teachers, and NGO workers. Through web campaigns, hotlines, posters, cash rewards, classes, and an annual “national security awareness” day the campaign claims to aim at identifying foreign spies, preventing collaboration and recruiting citizens to support the state´s counter-espionage effort. A webpage for reporting espionage that includes a hotline to call “in dangerous times” warns citizens to “be on alert for friends who wear masks”. Posters on the subway tell: “You can still come back”, “Confess (with sincere repentance!) to relevant authorities and you MIGHT not be investigated further”. These kinds of warnings become increasingly common and seem, according to critics, supposed to breed mistrust of everything foreign while giving authorities a reason to further tighten national security. In 2016, Chinese media reported already the very exact number of 115,675 foreign spies operating in China, mostly from Germany, Japan, and the United States. [Guardian]

By branding foreign influence as a primary national security theme and making everyone responsible and calling on individuals to actively participate in China’s state security, the delineation of the own and other, the pure and the impure becomes a highly dynamic tool to create cohesive social discipline and state legitimacy.

This notwithstanding, to a certain extent “the presence of foreign spies and their recruitment work in China is real” as in others as well where Chinese agents operate. Between 2010 and 2011, there have been at least a dozen CIA sources imprisoned or killed, one in front of his colleagues outside a government building. [Guardian]

As a xenophobic campaign, the Chinese partly resembles somehow both, the Indonesian security state´s ‘proxy warfare’ campaign targeting suspected foreign influence behind unwanted political and sexual preferences in the country and, to a lesser degree, the Australian fear of secretive Chinese influences. Different however are arguably their touch with reality and the scope, impact and scale of the respective campaigns.

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Pakistan: Parliament passes historic transgender rights law 

(ot) On Tuesday, the Pakistani parliament voted to pass the Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Act. The landmark legislation guarantees basic rights for transgender people as well as outlaws discrimination against them by employers and business owners. Under the new law, transgender people in Pakistan are ensured the right to self-identify their gender on all official documents. The law also protects transgender people against harassment in public places and at home and provides for the establishment of government-run centers for those at risk.

In Pakistan, transgender people routinely face attacks, harassment, and discrimination. Despite concerns over the implementation of the law, the development was seen by activists as a big step towards transgender rights protection in the country. [Independent, Al Jazeera, The Express Tribune]

Pakistan: Anti-graft body orders probe against ousted PM Sharif for money laundering

(ot) On Wednesday, the National Accountability Bureau, Pakistan’s anti-corruption watchdog, said in a statement that it had ordered an inquiry into allegations of money laundering against ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The Bureau cited an article published in a media report back in February this year. The article, quoting a World Bank’s Remittances and Migration report in 2016, accused Sharif and others of laundering 4.9 billion USD from Pakistan to India. [The Express Tribune 1]

However, hours after the announcement, the World Bank issued a press release denying its involvement in such accusation. The organization stated that the report only estimated migration and remittances numbers across the world and did not mention any money laundering or name any individuals. The statement serves as a serious blow to the credibility of the Bureau, whom the former prime minister has accused of ‘witch-hunting’. He is currently facing three corruption cases in the accountability court. [The Express Tribune 2]

Pakistan is due to hold general elections in two months. In response to the Bureau’s action, Pakistani prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi accused the body to be “pre-poll rigging”. Defense Minister Khurram Dastgir also slammed the actions of the Bureau and demanded a probe against the investigations processes. [ND TV]

Pakistan: Hazara killings amounts to ethnic cleansing, says Supreme Court

(ot) On Friday, Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Justice Mian Saqib Nisar said that targeted killings of members of the Hazara Muslim community in Quetta was equivalent to ethnic cleansing. The statement was made during a hearing of the suo moto notice, which is where a court accepts a case on its own initiative, on the continued atrocities against the Hazara community, taken since 2 May. The hearing was headed by the CJP and comprised Justice Ijazul Ahsan. [The Express Tribune]

Representatives from relevant law enforcement agencies participated in the hearing. Counsel for the Hazara community Iftikhar Ali presented his arguments before the court, saying that people from the community have been deprived of their lives and property and subjected to targeted killings for the past 20 years. The CJP advised the authorities to review the 2013 security plan and ensure the implementation. Another hearing will take place after Eid. [Geo TV]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Phnom Penh Post the latest victim in crackdown on free press

(ls) Two months before the Cambodian general election, The Phnom Penh Post, widely seen as the last bastion of a free press in Cambodia, has been sold to a Malaysian investor with ties to Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen. The investor is the chief executive of a public relations firm that has worked on behalf of Hun Sen. The sale comes about seven months after the government forced The Cambodia Daily to close over allegations that it had not paid millions of dollars in taxes. The Phnom Penh Post itself had owed $3.9 million in taxes, but that bill was settled as part of the sale. [New York Times]

In less than a year, Cambodia has gone from having the freest press in the region to being one of the most repressive and dangerous places to be a journalist. In the 2018 Reporters Without Borders press freedom index published last month, Cambodia dropped 10 places from 132 to 142, and the country’s independent press was described as being “in ruins”. [The Guardian]

In August 2017, the government ordered the closure of 32 radio frequencies across 20 Cambodian provinces that had broadcast programs critical of the government, including Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Voice of America (VOA). RFA closed its office in Phnom Penh in September, after 20 years of operations in Cambodia. [Human Rights Watch]

Meanwhile, a Cambodian court on Thursday upheld the insurrection convictions of 11 members and supporters of the country’s now dissolved main opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). The 11 members were jailed for terms ranging from seven to 20 years in 2014, after they forcibly tried to reopen the country’s only designated protest venue, “Freedom Park”, in July that year. [Reuters]

Indonesia: IS-inspired suicide bombers attack churches in Surabaya

(ls) A family of six launched suicide attacks on Christians attending Sunday services at three churches in Indonesia’s second-largest city of Surabaya, killing at least 13 people and wounding 40. Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, has seen a recent resurgence in homegrown militancy and police said the family who carried out Sunday’s attacks were among 500 Islamic State sympathizers who had returned from Syria. [Reuters]

Indonesia: Major prison riot costs six lives

(ls) A deadly riot that controlled three cellblocks inside the maximum-security Mako Brimob detention facility in Depok for more than 36 hours ended on Thursday morning with five officers brutally killed and one prisoner dead. More than 150 prisoners were involved in the fatal riot, in which inmates seized dozens of guns. The riot occurred in an area reserved for suspected and convicted terrorists. [The Guardian]

As the uprising was unfolding on Wednesday, the Islamic State’s media arm uploaded graphic videos and photographs from inside the detention center, showing the bodies of dead guards who had been repeatedly stabbed and in some cases shot. [New York Times]

Riots are not uncommon in Indonesian prisons, which are plagued by many issues, mainly overcrowding. Indonesia has more than 200,000 prisoners while the country’s prisons and detention centers have the capacity of holding 130,000 inmates. A revision of the Criminal Code currently being deliberated by the government and the House of Representatives mandates community service as a penalty for petty criminals. [The Inquirer]

Indonesia: Will Subianto be able to challenge Widodo next year?

(ls) Indonesian President Joko Widodo may find himself without a challenger in the next presidential election. While Prabowo Subianto – leader of the main opposition party and runner up in the 2014 election – has accepted his party’s endorsement, it is uncertain if he can assemble a viable coalition to be nominated by an August deadline. A party or coalition must have at least 20 per cent of seats in parliament or have won a minimum 25 per cent of the popular vote in the last legislative election to nominate a candidate. Prabowo’s Gerindra party holds only 13 per cent of the seats and thus needs to secure support from other parties. The Prosperous Justice Party (7.1 per cent) and National Mandate Party (7.6 per cent), the most likely partners for Gerindra, have not yet declared whom they will support. [South China Morning Post]

Malaysia: Mahatir back in power after historic defeat of UMNO

(ls) In Wednesday’s Malaysian general election, the governing party UMNO/Barisan Nasional has lost power for the first time since Malaysia became independent more than 60 years ago. The big winner was former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad (92) who had teamed up with his political opponents to form the Pakatan Harapan coalition. Mahathir was sworn in on Thursday as the new prime minister — the world’s oldest elected head of government — promising to fight corruption, prosecute ex-PM Najib Razak for corruption and unite the diverse nation of 31 million people. [New York Times]

Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 113 of the 222 parliament seats, providing an absolute majority for Mahatir’s coalition. PH was particularly successful in peninsular Malaysia and the Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area. In separate state elections, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) had to concede key states to PH. Whereas BN was able to retain Perlis and Pahang, Mahatir’s PH wrested the Johor, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan state assemblies from BN. PH also retained Penang and Selangor. BN further lost Terengganu to Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). Full results and statistics are offered by the [Straits Times 1].

Mahathir vowed to replace a number of ministers: "The heads of certain departments must fall. We find that some people are aiding and abetting the former prime minister who was described by the world as 'kleptocrat'," he told a press conference. [Straits Times 2]

The election marks the return to power of Malaysia’s longest-serving prime minister. Mohamad Mahatir already held the office for more than two decades between 1981 and 2003. During that time, he sacked dissenting judges, censored inconvenient journalists, and dismissed various human rights issues. In the South China Morning Post, Tashny Sukumaran provides an intriguing portrait of Mahatir, his changing relations to Anwar Ibrahim and his insatiable hunger for power. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines: Supreme Court chief justice removed by her own colleagues

(ls) The Philippines’ Supreme Court on Friday forced out its chief justice, removing a fierce critic of President Rodrigo Duterte. Voting 8-6, the Supreme Court justices removed Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno, approving a petition filed by the government’s lawyer that questioned the validity of her appointment on the ground that she had failed to fully disclose her wealth. The decision came ahead of a planned impeachment vote by the House of Representatives, which was expected to impeach the chief justice on corruption allegations that she has denied. [New York Times]

This is the first time that the Supreme Court removed its own chief, in a petition widely criticized for violating Sereno's constitutional right to an impeachment process. However, she is the second chief justice to be removed from office after Renato Corona was ousted in 2012. He was found guilty of betraying the public trust and committing culpable violation of the Constitution. [Rappler]

The Supreme Court’s decision stands in apparent contradiction to the Constitution’s Article IX, which stipulates that Supreme Court judges can be removed by impeachment. Prior the Court’s decision, over a hundred law professors, led by deans and former deans of law schools in different parts of the country, had published an advertisement calling on the Supreme Court not to move forward with removal. [Inquirer]

Myanmar: UN Security Council demands investigations and access for aid agencies

(ls/jm) Following its field visit last week, the United Nations Security Council urged Myanmar’s government on Wednesday to carry out transparent investigations into accusations of violence against mainly Rohingya Muslims in the country’s Rakhine state and to allow immediate aid access to the region. The SC urged Myanmar to conclude an agreement “in the coming days” with the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR and U.N. Development Programme on aid access in Rakhine and help with repatriating refugees from Bangladesh. [Reuters 1]

While preparing the statement of the United Nations Security Council’s delegation following their visit in Bangladesh and Myanmar, the Chinese representative initially contested some parts of the British drafts concerning suspicions of sexual violence and abuse, violence against children and the need for credible and transparent investigations. Instead, China wished to welcome “the efforts taken by the government of Myanmar to improve the situation in Rakhine” State. [Reuters 2]

In a parallel development, Islamic foreign ministers of the 53-member Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) launched a campaign to mobilize international support for action against Myanmar over the Rohingya refugee crisis. OIC secretary general Yousef bin Ahmed Al-Othaimeen said a new committee would “mobilize and coordinate international political support for accountability for human rights violations against the Rohingya community.” [Straits Times]

Myanmar: 93 Karen refugees head home from Thailand

(jm) While the government of Myanmar is already trying to solve displaced persons issues in Kachin and Rakhine States, 93 refugees from the Karen State, who live in Thailand, have gone home on Monday, 7th of May. The number of refugees in Thailand from Myanmar is expected around 100 000. Most of them fled the conflict between Myanmar’s army and the Karen guerillas that started at the beginning of the 1980’s. Though a peace agreement has been reached since, this peace stays precarious due to occasional skirmishes that have been reported in recent months. [Reuters]

Myanmar: Pilot project for legal aid system

(jm) A new legal aid system is about to be created in Myanmar. Currently, the only help provided concerns free-of-charge lawyers to clients that have to face the capital punishment. But the Union Legal Aid Board (ULAB) is thinking about an effective legal aid system that could enable everyone to go to court, taking into consideration the meanings and the needs. After a workshop on this subject founded by the European Union and the British Embassy on 3rd May, the ULAB will start a study around the country to determine the characteristics of the system, according to the specificities of the regions, the states and the types of cases. [The Myanmar Times]

Thailand: Prayut tours the country, gathering political support

(ls) Thai Prime Minister Prayut this week went to Buriram, a northeastern province dominated by Newin Chidchob, an ex-politician and key political "kingmaker". Prayut denied that he was on the campaign trail. But there are few doubts that he is out to seek the support of local leaders. He was greeted by more than 30,000 people in Buriram’s football stadium. [Bangkok Post 1]

The Nation writes that all signs point to Prayut building an alliance made up of those same politicians he pledged to eradicate from power after the coup. Newin, who played significant roles in the premierships of Thaksin Shinawatra and Abhisit Vejjajiva, vowed to distance himself from political activities in 2011 but is still regarded as an influential local figure. Bhum Jai Thai party’s current leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, also made an appearance on stage and claimed that the mass local gathering had no political agenda. [The Nation]

At a mobile cabinet meeting in Buri Ram, the government approved in principle a total of 121 development projects for the lower northeastern provinces worth more than 20 billion baht proposed by the private sector. “I am seeking cooperation on national reform, to explain the national strategy... I do not want anything in return,” Gen Prayut said. [Bangkok Post 2]

Thailand: “Watchman” saga drags on – Swift action against protester and TV station

(ls) The probe by Thailand’s National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) into the luxury watches allegedly owned by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon is still ongoing. In a stunning statement, the NACC secretary-general said that it was actually not complicated verifying the 22 watches' owners via the serial numbers, but that it took time repeating the same process for each watch. The investigation was launched in December last year. [Bangkok Post 1]

In a separate development, a woman who took part in a pro-democracy rally last week in Bangkok was swiftly arrested by the police and sent to a state-run psychiatric hospital, where she was held four days and injected against her will with sedatives. Police officers said they wanted to make sure that she is not mentally ill. [Khaosod English]

Meanwhile, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) has suspended for one month the licence of Peace TV, a broadcaster linked to the (red-shirt) United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). The NBTC said the station’s content was considered likely to incite conflict. [Bangkok Post 2]

Timor Leste: General elections this weekend

(ls) Timor-Leste is set to hold the second general election in less than a year at the weekend. After a months-long political impasse, the 65-member Parliament was dissolved in January. In a tension-filled campaign, violent weekend clashes broke out between supporters of the Fretilin party and backers of the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction led by former president and independence hero Xanana Gusmao. Some 40 per cent of Timor-Leste’s people live in poverty. Providing jobs for the large numbers of young people and reining in public spending will be key tasks for the new government, analysts say. [Straits Times]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Consequences of the US nuclear deal withdrawal for the Asian geopolitical order

(hg) Two - arguably related – major events, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the relatively massive Israeli military attack on Iranian positions in Syria will have some impact on the processes defining the current global geopolitical order and especially the Asian one. The two events can be seen against the background of the English - Russian tensions about the poisoning of UK spy Skripal and the ensuing diplomatic retaliation by major Western countries as well as the recent airstrikes launched by the US, UK and France against Syria. Both major events are embedded in a process of worsening relations between the West and Russia and a possibly emerging Turkish – Iranian – Russian – Chinese axis while Saudi – Arabia is going to show even growing assertiveness against Iran.

Especially, the unilateral US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, officially named Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), brings some new dynamics to the currently significant processes relevant for the present state of global order. What is about to happens now, is that the other signatories try to save the deal with notable activities.

While the chief inspector of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), unexpectedly resigned [Times of Israel] after the IAEA has highlighted Iran´s cooperation with the nuclear watchdog over recent years, the Iranian foreign minister is embarking on a diplomatic tour, first to Beijing and Moscow, and then to Brussels to meet his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany. At the same time, Russian President Putin has spoken with the government heads of Germany and Turkey, Merkel and Erdogan, to keep the nuclear deal alive [Times of Israel], whereas German Chancellor Merkel said in a phone call with Iranian President Rohani that her country would adhere to the 2015 nuclear deal. Additionally, Russian and German foreign ministers talked in Moscow about how to constructively proceed. After all, this is the joint position of all other signatories, namely Russia, Germany, China, Britain, France and Iran [Radio Free Europe] with the three European powers having issued a joint statement criticizing the American pullout [Government Europa].

In Europe, both France and Germany have seen a sharp rise in exports to Iran since sanctions were lifted in 2016. Especially France has sharply condemned the re-imposition of sanctions as "unacceptable". Its Economy Minister even said Europe had to defend its "economic sovereignty" and called on the European Commission to look into possible retaliatory measures. [BBC] Even America´s staunchest allies in Asia, Japan and Australia, still support the deal [US News]. The Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono underlined Tokyo´s support for the nuclear deal in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart urging all other parties to remain committed to the multilateral agreement. [Tehran Times]

Now, Berlin, Beijing and Moscow are the given brokers to create a platform for talks on the future of the Iran nuclear deal, a constellation that cannot please the American interest. It might, moreover, be argued that the Trump move, which reflects the new security environment in Washington with Mike Pompeo and John Bolton in key positions, will backfire in case it has no clearly defined short-time purpose. Otherwise, the unilateral withdrawal from the deal is likely to benefit especially China, possibly even bring Moscow closer to Europe again, endanger the developing US ties with India and generally lower the US´ weight in Asia´s shifting security order.

First, Beijing is prone to evolve as the first inter pares to foster an international reaffirmation of the deal after it had played a crucial role in bringing Iran to forge the deal in the first instance.

Additionally, China will gain in terms of energy access and make more trade and infrastructure inroads to Iran. China will anyway be able to continue business with Iran without being much harmed by sanctions. It is, in fact, highly experienced to circumvent sanctions and will probably just create companies that will operate only in or with Iran to avoid them. [Sputnik 1] For China, with its potentially all-controlling central authority and low level of market transparency, such workarounds are much easier to realize than for European companies.

Iran sells already more to China than to any other country and celebrated a 25 percent increase in exports there last year already while the value of Chinese exports to Iran also increased by more than 21 percent last year, according to Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration's statistics. Now, China – Iran trade and infrastructure ties are very likely to even grow more. Generally, China will gain strategic space with regard to the Middle East to be used to advance its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Just now, Beijing has officially opened a new train route to Iran likely to go through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. [Sputnik 2]

Moreover, the US might effectively force European companies out of the Iranian market – to the benefit of China. The US sanctions which will especially aim at Iranian crude oil will limit its global trade opportunities to the special advantage of China as the world’s largest importer of crude oil that might even get it cheaper now. The gain to take over a lead role in directly exploiting Iranian oil and gas fields might be even worth for China to directly invest without circumventions. The [Japan Times] just reports that China’s state-owned energy major CNPC is ready to take over French giant Total’s stake in the giant Iranian South Pars gas project if the French company leaves due to the US sanctions. The Iranian South Pars field has the world’s biggest natural gas reserves ever found in one place and the possibility of Total’s pullout is reportedly quite high now. [Japan Times]

Lastly, and particularly important, China will reinforce the petro-yuan as more than just a spoiler attack on the dominance of the dollar-denominated Brent and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks. According to the latter, oil is priced and traded in U.S. dollars which is of crucial importance for the US economy. The increase in the use of the renminbi in global financial trade following a Chinese lead role in the Iranian oil market would be much more relevant than the immediate benefit of energy supply and pricing imports in yuan to the end that it would spare China the cost of exchanging dollars. After all, the development reinforces the Chinese move in March this year to launch a futures exchange in Shanghai that aims to become a yuan-denominated global benchmark, which itself is part of a larger strategy to establish the renminbi as the leading global currency. [Reuters]

The relevance of these developments is highlighted by China´s sheer market power having overtook the US as the world's largest oil importer last year already and hoping to beat that achievement in 2018. At the same time, the yuan-denominated crude exchange in Shanghai will offer another path for Iran to get past US sanctions, which are typically enforced when banks attempt to clear dollar-denominated trades in New York. [Business Times]

Second, besides empowering China, the US withdrawal strengthens Iranian resilience and weakens the US own strategic ties as partly indicated already above. Regarding Iran the change is obvious. Summer last year, Washington could hope to empower the Iranian opposition while it created a new Iran Mission Center at the CIA to “turn up the heat on Iran”. [Wallstreet Journal] Now, the Trump administration has managed it to further unite Iranian politics. More important is the effect on Europe. Even if key countries like Germany and France will eventually not be motivated to rebalance their strategic focus after a series of unilateral moves by President Trump, European leaders will have to work closely with Beijing and Moscow in the newly created situation while Iran, Russia and China will be pushed closer to each other once more.

Especially interesting is the effect on India which has great interests in Iran. The question is, in how far India will side with the US. Harsh V. Pant gives an interesting analysis of the situation from an Indian policy perspective highlighting India´s stakes regarding the presumably even intensifying Iran – China relations. [The Hindu] India´s immediate stake in Iran is mainly its investment in the Iranian Chabahar port that had often been projected as India’s response to China´s investment in the Pakistani Gwadar port. Recently however, Iran invited both China and Pakistan to join in, which highly frustrated Indian policy makers. Counterintuitively to consult a siding with the US, Pant analyses the possible Indian policies in the current scenario on the basis of the already existing deep economic and defense ties between Teheran and Beijing. His analysis starts with an understanding for the Iranian pro-China perspective especially in the presently given situation: “Given the overt hostility of the Trump administration towards Iran, it is imperative for Tehran to maintain cordial relationship with a rising power like China”. From here, the author, a Professor of International Relations at King’s College London, advises New Delhi “to navigate its interests in the region accordingly” with a realistic view to accept some form of Chinese participation in the Chabahar project while India and China are anyway exploring joint economic projects in Afghanistan. [The Hindu] Such a continuation with Indian – Iranian ties that would even include a limited Chinese – Indian rapprochement could put US – Indian relations under serious stress however. Whichever path Delhi will actually take in the given situation, the ‘Iranian factor’ is likely to have a significant impact on the overall Asian order regarding the Indian relations with both China and the US.

Third, the US, by withdrawing from the nuclear deal, are weakening their clout as a global norm setter once more. For the US, to leave from a multilateral agreement – effectively a disarmament treaty – that has been endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution (No 2231), will further weaken the US´ strategically important position as a central driver of an international law - based order, an opportunity that will be seized by China to the largest extent possible.

Moreover, by increasing its arsenal of sharp sanctions, the US might find themselves caught between either alienating some key partners or undermining the credibility of their normative approach in general. The Iran sanctions that will add to the sanctions against Russia recently enabled by the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA) [US Dep. of Treasury] cause important allies to seek exemptions from sanctions, a step already initiated by both the French and German government regarding Iran. A similar request has been submitted by India regarding the CAATSA relevant purchase of the Russian S-400. In times of a shifting geopolitical order, to deny the respective waivers will worsen bilateral relations, to grant them undermine the authority of the respective regimes in the first place.

North Korean denuclearization: Doubts and hopes

(hg) North Korea has announced to dismantle its nuclear test site between May 23 and 25 before the planned historic summit between Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump on June 12 in Singapore. In an official statement North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said that all of the tunnels at the country’s northeastern testing ground will be destroyed by explosion, and that observation and research facilities and ground-based guard units will also be removed. [Time]

The assessment of the move which surprised the world is, however, mixed. First, the closure of the site might be an important but is no sufficient step toward denuclearization. Second, North Korea’s major nuclear test site turns out to be more damaged after its latest test than previously thought. Scientists have said that due to a partial collapse of a mountain near the test region that part of the site was no longer useable. New research published in Science magazine confirms now, that this is likely to be the case, claiming that a very large domain has collapsed around the test site, not merely a tunnel or two. [Independent]

An underground test bomb that was claimed by North Korea to be a small hydrogen bomb shook the surrounding landscape so violently that it changed the shape of an entire mountain. This test was conducted early September last year causing a 6.3 magnitude tremor on seismographs in the surrounding region. Data collected from Germany and Japan were combined to create a before-and-after map of the area surrounding the 2,204 - meter mountain in North Korea's north-east painting a picture of a mountain under stress, displaying what is called ‘tired mountain syndrome’ caused by repeated underground explosions. About 8.5 minutes after the initial tremor, detectors noticed a second, smaller shake, and what was left in its wake was a significantly shorter mountain. [Science Alert]

The findings illuminate both the probabilities of North Korea´s nuclear capabilities and the possible background of the regime´s bargaining agenda. Based on measurements, the regime's claim that it was testing a small hydrogen bomb can't indeed be ruled out as the blast is within the range of larger atomic detonations. [Science Alert]

Moreover, the value of Kim Jong-un´s promise to shut down the site, which has been viewed as a significant concession, might have to be adjusted if it turns out that the site is entirely unusable. [Independent]

This could reinforce some doubts about the scope of the agreement and its actual implementation. After all, it is yet not even clear what the bilateral denuclearization agenda actually comprises.

Following the Moon-Kim summit, Moon’s office said Kim was willing to disclose the dismantling process to international experts, but the North’s statement Saturday did not include any mention of this but foresees to invite journalists from the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Britain to witness the dismantling process. Moreover, beside the promise to work toward the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula, there were no agreements on references to verification or timetables. [Time]

Given this, lingering doubts about whether Kim would ever agree to fully relinquish the weapons he likely views as his guarantee of survival are not unjustified.

After all, North Korea has been pushing for decades a concept of “denuclearization” that just bears not even slight resemblance to the American definition, having also been conditioned by requesting Washington to remove its 28,500 troops from South Korea as well as its nuclear umbrella defending South Korea and Japan. In June 2008, international press was invited to witness the demolishing of a cooling tower at a reactor site a year after North Korea agreed with five other nations to disable its nuclear facilities in return for an aid package of about $400 million. But in September 2008, the government declared that it would resume reprocessing plutonium as Washington wasn’t fulfilling its promise to remove the country from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. After the George W. Bush administration did this in October 2008, another attempt to fully dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program collapsed that December when North Korea refused to accept U.S.-proposed verification methods and started its second nuclear test in May 2009. [Time]

Another issue is the scope of Kim´s capabilities. His claim that his nuclear force was complete following North Korea’s most powerful nuclear test to date in September and three flight tests of ICBMs designed to reach the U.S. mainland, is complemented by claims that his scientists have managed to conduct “subcritical” nuclear tests. Such experiments involving a subcritical mass of nuclear materials allows to examine the performance of weapons without triggering a nuclear chain reaction. North Korea’s recent reference to such activity has been interpreted as an attempt to communicate that even without underground testing, the country intends to maintain its nuclear arsenal and be a “responsible” steward of those weapons at the same time. [Time]

Adding to the uncertainties about the North Korean agenda are those pertaining to the involved great power interests. For China, which Kim has consulted two times now, North Korea has offered a valuable platform to ‘safely’ put pressure on the US and Japan, while a threatened South Korea is a justification to maintain US military infrastructure that easily reaches China. Moreover, the rapprochement has just started and denuclearization is a long process which still can fail with any newly approaching step.

Nevertheless, for the meanwhile, the US on their part, support the process. During his visit to Pyongyang, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has offered to help rebuild the North Korean economy if Kim gives up its nuclear weapons. [BBC]

East Asian regional order: China, Japan and South Korea work together on denuclearizing North Korea

(hg) The political leaders of China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to cooperate on ending North Korea’s nuclear program and promoting free trade at the first summit for the Northeast Asian neighbors after a hiatus of more than two years. [Time] Notably, Chinese – Japanese relations seem to improve markedly in context of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang´s three-day state visit in Japan, the first by a top Chinese leader in eight years. [CNN] [SupChina]

Abe and Vladimir Putin to hold talks in Moscow on May 26

(hg) Adding to the improving ties with China, Prime Minister Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a meeting in Moscow on May 26 with both governments aiming to reach an agreement on joint economic activities and the Russian-controlled islands of Hokkaido that are at the center of a decades-old territorial dispute. [Japan Times]

U.S. and China accuse each other of wrecking the WTO

(hg) The US and China clashed before the WTO’s General Council blaming each other for risking the destruction of the World Trade Organization. U.S. Ambassador Dennis Shea, addressing the WTO’s General Council for the first time, began by attacking the judges of the WTO’s Appellate Body for a “steadily worsening rupture of trust” by disregarding the rules they were supposed to apply and for failing to observe a 90-day timetable for judging appeals. The United States has vetoed new appointments to the Appellate Body, which is effectively the supreme court of world trade.

The Chinese Ambassador to the WTO began by warmly welcoming “our new colleagues, especially Dennis” to then criticize the “dangerous and devastating” U.S. actions stating that the US “by taking the selection process as a hostage”, would abuse the consensual decision-making mechanism. Moreover, he claimed the U.S. veto, along with steel and aluminum tariffs and a threat to put $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods for alleged intellectual property theft, had systematically challenged the WTO’s fundamental principles. The US counter-claim was to highlight that China, “the world’s most protectionist, mercantilist economy” would ironically “position itself as the self-proclaimed defender of free trade and the global trading system”.

Many other WTO members joining the debate meanwhile also expressed concern that the U.S. actions could make the system dysfunctional rejecting any linkage between judicial appointments and reforming the WTO. The discussion seems to have been extraordinary intense with unusually explicit mutual accusations of two of the most prominent members. [Reuters]

China sends fighter jets near Taiwan

(hg) In the latest of a series of drills, China sent military aircraft near Taiwan and Okinawa last Friday including multiple H-6K bombers, J-11 fighters, reconnaissance planes, transport aircraft and, for the first time, Su-35 fighters which the Chinese Defense Ministry hailed on this occasion as a “new breakthrough, highlighting the new enhancements to the Air Force’s combat capability.” [Japan News]

US – China relations: tensions over harshening One-China policy

(hg) After Washington named Beijing´s order to 36 airline companies to purge their websites of references to Macau, Taiwan and Hong Kong as separate countries “Orwellian nonsense”, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated foreign companies would have to obey official demands on how to refer to these areas as the price of doing business in China. [New York Times]

Possible battlegrounds in the Chinese campaign against mentioning Taiwan are manifold however. Just recently the name of the island was removed for instance also from the biography of a “Foreign Policy” contributor speaking at Savannah State University in the United States, after the co-director of the university’s Confucius Institute insisted on the removal before programs were printed. [Taiwan News]

Western concerns over Chinese secretive influence by Confucius Institutes

(hg) An Australian state government, the education department of New South Wales, is 'reviewing' its relationship with China's controversial Confucius Institute over fears of covert foreign influence. The globally more than 1,500 Confucius Institutes in universities and Confucius Classrooms in primary and high schools aim to teach and promote Chinese language and culture. Western Universities such as Penn State, the University of Chicago, Stockholm University, and Lyon University have closed their Confucius Institutes in recent years over concerns about Chinese propaganda and influence already.

Just this week former secretary of state Hillary Clinton warned of China’s interference in Australia and New Zealand whereas US legislators have introduced the Foreign Influence Transparency Act, which would require Confucius Institutes to register as foreign agents. [Business Insider]

Australian Ex-PM Rudd's criticism of PM Turnbull on Chinese social media in Mandarin

(hg) Amid growing fears of concerted Chinese influence operations in Australia, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, who regularly blogs in Mandarin Chinese in the Chinese Internet version Weibo, where he is followed by 613,000 people has criticized PM Malcolm Turnbull for derailing China-Australia relations for personal political interests. Rudd claimed Turnbull would also insult the Chinese people, the Chinese-Australians, and the Australians, recommending instead to value Australia´s friendship with China “to establish systematic and comprehensive China-Australian strategic relation instead of being paranoid and all over the place”.

Besides a personal animosity between Rudd and Turnbull, Rudd´s comments and the mixed reaction they prompted in the Australian public point to an intensifying cultural conflict over Chinese influence in Australia. They find their reflection in China, where Rudd´s comments echo a widely held view, that Australian concerns about the Chinese Communist Party's influence in Australia stem from a xenophobic paranoia. When Rudd was prime minister himself, initial excitement about a China expert in government was soon replaced by severe disappointment on the Chinese side when Rudd highlighted human rights abuses in Tibet. [ABC]

Is the EU trying to counter China’s Eurasian ambitions with an alternative connectivity plan?

(hg) While Beijing makes already impressive inroads into Europe with its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), Brussels seems working on an alternative pushing ahead with plans for greater connectivity between Europe and Asia as a way to counter China’s BRI. In February, the European Commission has released a document soliciting opinion on the Europe-Asia Connectivity plan, which is expected to be adopted by the commission in July, by the European Council in October and to be presented at the 12th Asia-Europe (ASEM) Summit in Brussels later the same month. Just last month, 27 of 28 EU ambassadors in Beijing, with the Hungarian envoy being the exception, denounced the BRI for hampering free trade and unfairly favoring Chinese companies. The European connectivity plan is part of a shift in EU foreign policy aiming to act with a more unified and firmer voice.

According to Bernt Berger, head of the Asia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the EU plan would provide a way for major European economies to diversify trade ties that had become too dependent on China while it could also be complimentary to the BRI. After all, the European view on the BRI is much more positive than the American, Indian or Australian. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see if and in how far the EU will seek to align the connectivity plan on the one hand with China and with India, Australia, the US and Japan on the other.

The issue is likely to be one of the key agenda items for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is expected to visit China later this month. Concerning the generally favorable German perception of the BRI, the European International Contractors, a construction industry trade association based in Germany, commented that the Chinese initiative consistently left little room for local contractors to get involved and praised the EU’s efforts to develop an alternative connectivity plan. [SCMP]

Japan and UAE sign defense cooperation agreement

(hg) The UAE Minister of State for Defence Affairs and his Japanese counterpart have signed a joint cooperation agreement in security and defense affairs in Tokyo. [Gulf News]

Chinese Missiles are transforming the balance of power in the skies

(hg) After the U.S. and its allies effectively owned the skies for a long time, that is no longer the case with rapid technological progress not only in Russia´s but also China’s aerospace industry. The latter has developed impressive air-to-air missile systems, the PL-15, that could seriously challenge Western air forces. The new air-to-air missiles cost one or two million dollars and can destroy a $150 million aircraft. In March, the U.S. Air Force awarded a half-billion-dollar contract to supply close allies with Raytheon Inc.’s latest long range air-to-air missile, capable of hitting enemy planes from 160 kilometers away. The Meteor, a new European equivalent, may be even more efficient. But China’s latest missile development has a greater range than either. Another Chinese air-to-air weapon in development, provisionally known as PL-XX, aims at slow-moving airborne warning and control systems, thus the flying neural centers of U.S. air warfare, from as far away as 300 miles. At closer range, China’s new PL-10 missile is comparable to the best “fire-and-forget” equivalents, meaning any dogfight would likely end with a so-called mutual kill which means a significant deterrent.

While the U.S. air force remains the world´s strongest by far, the Chinese advances come at a critical time adding to advancements in other crucial defense fields such as robotics and artificial intelligence. Moreover, the world´s best air force might now encounter real resistance. Notably, Chinese pilots, planes and weapons don’t have to be better than their U.S. counterparts – what they are not yet - to radically change battlefield calculations. Yet, China’s new aircraft, combined with the latest air-to-air, cruise, anti-ship and Russian origin S-400 air-defense systems create a high - risk challenge for US operations in contested areas in Asia.

Moreover, China, Russia and Pakistan cooperate on increasingly sophisticated terms which is intensifying their alliances. Russia supplies Beijing and Beijing supplies Pakistan with China and Pakistan having co-produced the JF-17 fighter since 2007, while Russia provided high quality engines. In March, it had been reported that the JF-17 will be upgraded with active array radar and, maybe, also China’s PL-10 missiles. This would put India’s aging Russian MiGs at serious risk in case of a confrontation. In any case, China is rapidly advancing its military capabilities in concert with other regionally relevant powers contributing to significant patterns of Asia´s emerging security order. [Bloomberg]

India: Foreign policy shift as a result of China’s role in the region, opting for Western allies over Russia in defense cooperation

(ot) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s increasingly proactive role in regional military cooperation is the result of China’s rising military, economic, and political engagement in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, says Jeff M Smith of the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.

In the past decade, many of China’s operations in the region are seen as a strategic encirclement of India, including its involvement in politics in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, and a planned Chinese naval base on the coast of Pakistan. As a result, PM Modi’s administration has been moving away from the country’s traditional non-alignment policy, by shifting its stance towards strategic collaboration with the United States and its security partners. The country has shown interest in the resurrection of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, a multilateral partnership with Australia, Japan, and the United States. The project, which has been dormant for nearly a decade, aims at deterring the rising influence of China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, India has entered into defense-related agreements with France and other naval cooperation with Japan and the United States. [Asia Times 1]

In terms of its defense policy, India, once Russia’s top defense partnership, is now opting for Western arms. India-Russia’s joint Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft project has been called off. The defense cooperation between India and Russia also hit hurdles as a result of the United States’ Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The country’s relationship with Russia was put under test when it jointed Western countries to condemn the Skripal poisoning case in England.

On the other hand, India’s neighbors are looking towards China. With its coercive tactics, unpredictable policies, and domineering attitudes towards its neighbors, India has caused further anxieties in the region. [Asia Times 2]

India: Modernization of Navy on track

(ot) On Tuesday, India’s Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, addressing the naval commanders’ conference in New Delhi, said that the modernization of the Indian Navy is expected to make the country “a force to reckon with” in the Indo-Pacific maritime region in the coming years. However, persisting budgetary constraints as well as shortages in submarines, multi-role helicopters, minesweepers, and drones, are some of the challenges ahead of the development.

Despite no emphasis on tensions with China, the fact remains that the Chinese Navy is fast expanding its operations in the Indian Ocean Region, having established its first overseas military base at Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. Meanwhile, India has been undertaking mission-based deployments from the Persian Gulf to Malacca Strait since August last year. The minister expressed satisfaction for the Navy’s continued “high operational tempo” through regular deployment of ships, submarines, and aircrafts as the “primary instrument and manifestation of the nation’s maritime power, while also establishing itself as a potential tool for military diplomacy”. [Times of India]

India: Regional parties call for ceasefire in Kashmir

(ot) On Wednesday, Indian Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti held a meeting of regional parties to discuss the situation in Kashmir in Srinagar. As a result of the meeting, all parties in Jammu and Kashmir, including the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have agreed to approach the central government to demand a unilateral ceasefire for the forthcoming holy Muslim month of Ramadan and the period of Hindu pilgrimage Amarnath Yatra.  

The meeting took place in the wake of growing tension in the past 40 days, resulting in 69 casualties, including 28 civilians and a tourist. [The Hindu, India Express]

India-Nepal relations: PM Modi’s visit

(ot) On Friday, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi arrived in Nepal on his 2-day visit to the country from 11 to 12 May. The visit is being seen as an attempt by the countries to soothe uneasy ties, particularly as China is strengthening its political and economic relations with Nepal. On the main agenda are talks on bilateral projects, including railway connectivity between the countries, inland transport, and agriculture. [Times of India, The Hindu]

South China Sea: Vietnam presses China as Philippines remain silent

(ls) Vietnam has asked China to withdraw military equipment from the South China Sea, following media reports this month that China had installed missiles there. “Vietnam requests that China, as a large country, shows its responsibility in maintaining peace and stability in the East Sea,” a Vietnamese foreign ministry spokeswoman said. U.S. news network CNBC reported this month that China had installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three of its outposts in the South China Sea. [Reuters]

While Vietnam has protested China’s alleged missile deployment in the disputed waterway, the Philippine administration of President Rodrigo Duterte has yet to say what it intends to do about the installation of high-tech weapons on Philippine territory. Several lawmakers have urged Duterte to protest the missile deployment, but presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government has yet to verify the information. [Inquirer]

Nonetheless, US and Philippine forces have begun their largest annual military exercises so far under President Rodrigo Duterte. The decades-old exercises opened on Monday and involve combat drills in mock urban settings to train special forces in battling terrorists in cities, following an Islamic State-linked siege on southern Marawi city last year. Duterte initially vowed to scale down America’s military presence and involvement in combat drills as he sought closer ties with China and Russia. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said China is committed to a peaceful settlement of bilateral disputes with ASEAN nations over the South China Sea, despite differing views. Li made the remarks after holding talks with Indonesian President Joko Widodo in West Java, in his first visit to Indonesia as Prime Minister. China is the third-largest foreign investor in Indonesia, with investment amounting to US$3.4 billion (S$4.5 billion) in 2017. [Straits Times]

How sustaining is Duterte’s foreign policy shift toward China?

(hg) Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte who refuses American hegemony in Asia has put much effort over the last two years to normalize bilateral relations with China that he sees as a geopolitical reality that cannot be ignored.

Still, however, this very China’s assertiveness extent also to what the Philippines claim as its own territorial waters. Earlier this year, the Philippine military chief implied that unilateral Chinese deployment of military assets on Philippine-claimed land would constitute a direct betrayal of China’s promise not to militarize the disputed area consequently exploited by corresponding accusations of “aggressive unilateral action” towards militarization by the US ambassador in Manila. It remains to be seen in how far President Duterte will be able to play the China card if China is continuing to entrench its presence in the contested waters. [SCMP]

Background Reading

Environmentalism and authoritarian politics in Vietnam

(ls) In a thorough analysis of environmental activism in Vietnam, Thieu-Dang Nguyen and Simone Datzberger examine how environmentalist campaigns have formed an unparalleled civic movement. They describe how activists have not only won unprecedented public participation, but how the movements have also unified historically fragmented civil society segments and actors. They hold that the environmental movement provides a unique opportunity of how fundamental freedoms can take root and be exercised even in the context of political oppression. As such, they argue that it clearly differs from previous forms of civic activism in Vietnam and invites a re-imagination of new frontiers for social and political change in the future. [Transnational Institute]

Just this week, a Facebook user was jailed for 4-1/2 years who spread news on social media about the 2016 Formosa environmental disaster and attacked individual leaders of the Communist Party. [Reuters]

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!