Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 40, October/2021, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you this week’s update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Cuba, Fiji, Lesotho, Uganda and Taiwan which celebrate Independence Day and National Day respectively in this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

China: Evergrande crisis continues

(tj) Evergrande has missed paying an offshore bond interest due on Wednesday, September 29, in the amount of $47.5 million, marking Evergrande’s second offshore debt obligation in a week. 

Albeit having made a partial payment of 10% of wealth management products which are largely owned by onshore retail investors that were due by September 30, after having similarly missed $83.5 million in coupon payments last Thursday, September 23, the Chinese central bank urged financial institutions to cooperate with relevant departments to ensure financial stability of the real estate market and safeguard housing consumers’ interests.

Coming amid announcements that Evergrande would further sell a 9.99 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) stake it owns in Shengjing Bank Co Ltd to a state-owned asset management company, the company still has a 30-day grace period before the missed payments officially become a default.

Evergrande has lost around 80% of its stock market value over the last year. The company faces nearly $20 billion in offshore debt and deadlines on dollar bond coupon payments totalling $162.38 million in the next month.

On Wednesday, September 29, it was reported that at least 8 WeChat groups blocked (averaging 200-500 people), used by people owed money by property giant China Evergrande Group to organize protests and discuss claims, have been blocked on Tencent Holdings’ WeChat platform, with some users reporting they were visited by law enforcement, others presented with the error message ‘limits have been placed on this group because it violates relevant rules and regulations’.

Chinese social media companies are subject to strict laws requiring them to censor content that ‘undermines social stability’ or is critical of the central government, controls that have tightened under President Xi Jinping. [Reuters 1] [Reuters 2] [BBC 1] [BBC 2]

Commentators have expressed that Beijing’s delay in assisting Evergrande, compared to its decisive action in the face of past economic crises, could be due to Xi’s political distance of founder and chairman Xu Jiayin, who is believed to have close ties to the party’s once-powerful Communist Youth League faction, which has been marginalized under Xi. [Nikkei Asia]

Similarly, Beijing’s scrutiny of Evergrande’s debt comes amid a sweeping political agenda to curb ‘excessive wealth’, ensuring that the spoils of successful private enterprises are shared across society under Xi Jinping’s goal of  ‘common prosperity’, having previously persuaded tech-giants to donate billions of yuan towards the manifestation of the initiative. [The Washington Post] [See AiR No.36, September 2021, 1]

However, commentators have opined that Evergrande’s crisis presents Beijing with an opportunity to demonstrate how entrenched China is in the global system and how it has the potential to hurt economic recovery of other nations. [Observer Research Foundation] [See, Reuters 3]

Similarly, as Beijing has expressed its desire for innovation to power the nation’s future economic development rather than the transient booster of the realty sector, Beijing’s disinterest in a government bailout to assist Evergrande is a logical step to outwardly present itself as serious in changing its economic development strategy. [Observer Research Foundation]

Despite Beijing’s disinclination to assist Evergrande due to the companies’ continuous financial risks created by the sector’s excessive borrowing, authorities would rather guide the company to a controlled implosion rather than allowing a wider international explosion. [The Washington Post]

However, an important consideration regarding the extent of Beijing’s involvement in the Evergrande crisis remains the potential loss of trust of foreign investors in China's financial system and public unrest that a poorly executed collapse could engender, a concern reflected in the price of Asian shares dipping on Monday. [Nikkei Asia] [Reuters 4]

China: Hong Kong seeks to reintroduce legislation to further supress political dissent

(tj) Pushed by the Hong Kong government to ‘fill the gaps’ of the existing Beijing-imposed National Security Law, Article 23 of Hong Kong’s Basic Law, retracted in 2003 due to public backlash, is being sought to extend its application to targeting Taiwanese and other foreign political organisations.

The clause was never implemented due to deeply held public fears that it would curtail Hong Kong’s cherished rights, such as freedom of expression, and an attempt in 2003 drew 1 million people to the streets. [The Guardian]

The discussion of article 23 comes amid the denial of bail of a series of student activists under the current National Security Law. On Thursday, West Kowloon Magistrates’ Court denied bail to seven student activists charged under Article 22 and 23 of the National Security Law for inciting others to undermine the Hong Kong and Chinese Governments, whilst similarly charging the activists under Section 159A and 159C of the Crimes Ordinance for the act of conspiracy. Magistrate Peter Law denied bail applications from defendants – Yuen Ka-him, 16, Choi Wing-kit, 20, Leung Yung-wan, 16, Chan Yau-tsun, 25, Tseung Chau Ching-yu, 16, as well as a 15-year-old girl. [Hong Kong Free Press 1] [The Guardian]

Beijing’s incremental pressure on Hong Kong has similarly and recently infiltrated into politics, this week Beijing removing ten elected district Hong Kong councillors from their seats after authorities found their mandatory oaths of allegiance to be invalid. [Hong Kong Free Press 2] [South China Morning Post 1]

Similarly increasing pressure on civil society organisations, police recently froze the assets of a long-running civil society group, the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Democratic Freedoms, a day after it announced its dissolution. Several members of the group had previously been arrested, charged, or jailed. Likewise, the Alliance’s museum commemorating the Tiananmen Square massacre was raided this month, its online exhibition this week having been blocked in Hong Kong. [See, AiR No. 39, September 2021, 4] [See, AiR No. 37, September 2021, 2]

Additionally, Radio Television Hong Kong (‘RTHK’), the only independent, publicly funded media outlet on Chinese soil was ordered to support the national security and interests of the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, despite RTHK’s charter guaranteeing the media outlet’s editorial independence. [Reuters] [RTHK]

Lastly, this week, Hong Kong’s Lingnan University sacked two adjunct associate professors, Lo Wing-sang, known for political commentary in local newspapers, and Hui Bo-keung, a trustee of the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, for purported reasons of the pairs’ pro-democracy views and criticisms of the Hong Kong government for their increasing restrictions on civil freedoms. [Hong Kong Free Press 3] [South China Morning Post 2]

China: Hong Kong passes new anti-doxxing law

(tj) On Wednesday, September 29, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council passed the Personal Data (Privacy) Ordinance amendment bill, a privacy law tackling doxxing, a process that connotes the public release of information identifying an individual or organisation without their consent.

The new law grants the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data the ability to investigate and prosecute doxxing, expands the Hong Kong’s Privacy Commissioner’s powers to request local and overseas internet service providers to remove ‘doxxing’ content, and allows the Commissioner to apply for a warrant to enter and search premises, seize materials for investigation, and the ability to access electronic devices without a warrant.

The new law  criminalises the disclosing personal data without consent with the intent to, or being reckless in causing psychological harm that can be punishable by up to a HK$1 million fine and five years in jail.

While supporters of the law argue that it was long overdue in the face of the malicious spread of private information online, witnessed during the anti-government protests in 2019, human rights and pro-democracy groups warned that it could be used to crack down on dissent.

In the course of the anti-government protests in 2019, doxxing became a weapon on both sides of the protest line, with names, photos, phone numbers, ages and the occupation of individuals disclosed.

Technology companies, meanwhile, expressed their concerns that the new law has an overly broad application that could interfere with operations in Hong Kong, with the Asia Internet Coalition, an advocacy group that includes Google, Facebook and Twitter, saying that they could stop offering their services in Hong Kong if authorities went ahead with the changes. [ABC News] [Bloomberg] [Hong Kong Free Press] 

China: Beijing’s new technology regulations

(tj) On Thursday, September 30, China enacted the Data Security Law that included new draft measures aimed at bolstering its new data security law, instructing how companies in China classify, store, and transfer types of data. 

The new law prescribed definitions of what constitutes ‘core’ and ‘important’ data, ‘core data’ connoting data that poses a ‘serious threat’ to national and economic interests, whilst ‘important data’ connoting data that could cause ‘major damage’, ‘large-scale shutdowns’ or ‘large-scale network and service paralysis’. 

Commentators, including many lawyers, have since criticized the legislation’s ambiguities, and overly broad application. [Reuters] 

China: Fears of abortion restrictions

(tj) On Monday, October 4, China’s state council published its latest 10-year outline for women’s development, wherein it pledged to “reduce abortions conducted for non-medical reasons,” inducing fear in women it signalled Beijing’s move towards restricting access to or even flat-out banning abortions. 

Beijing has previously enforced a one-child policy, which included lawful measures to undertake traumatic forced abortions, and similarly, recently enacted population controls over ethnic minority groups such as alleged forced sterilisation of Uyghur women in Xinjiang.

Attempting to avert a demographic crisis with an ageing population and last year recording the lowest birth rate since 1961, recent policies from Beijing have completely changed the decades-long message and now enthusiastically urge couples to have children. [ABC News] [Al Jazeera] [The Guardian]

However, commentators have stated that these latest guidelines will not solve China’s population troubles. Last year China’s total fertility rate fell to 1.3 births per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, while births dropped by 20% from 2020 to 2019. [The Economist]

China: Tiananmen Square remembered as Beijing increases pressure on Hong Kong commemoration vigils

(tj) In the midst of Xi Jinping leading tributes to fallen heroes of revolution in Tiananmen Square ceremony, ‘Martyr’s Day’ in the heart of Beijing, in Hong Kong, media outlets were barred from media sector’s National Day celebration, access to website dedicated to Tiananmen victims was restricted, and national security police concurrently froze funds and property held by organises of the annual Tiananmen vigil. 

Similarly, in the run-up to China’s National Day on 1 October, it was reported that 8,000 police officers were deployed in Hong Kong, including from the ‘raptor’ squad and counter-terrorism units to quell any potential political unrest. [Bloomberg] [The Guardian]

Hong Kong police have relied on the national security legislation to justify actions that are considered by them to endanger national security, resulting in The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, the creators of the website, and organisers of the annual 4 June vigil, having their funds frozen and property held by national security police. 

The Alliance’s founders are currently in jail over their involvement in pro-democracy protests and has resulted in the Alliance disbanding last week [see AiR No. 38, September 2021, 3].

Dissimilar to internet access in mainland China, Hong Kong residents have so far enjoyed greater freedoms under the ‘one country, two systems’ framework agreed when the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

China has never provided a full account of the 1989 crackdown. Officials gave a death toll of about 300 days afterwards, but rights groups and witnesses contest that those numbers are a gross underestimate. [Hong Kong Free Press 1] [Hong Kong Free Press 2] [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

China: Cryptocurrency downfall

(tj) After Beijing declared that all crypto currencies were illegal last week, it has left investors scrambling for legitimate options to cash in their holdings.

Beijing has issued a series of increasingly restrictive, but never completely prohibitive, legal regulations regarding various aspects of cryptocurrency since 2013. [See, AiR No. 39, September 2021, 4]

The reason for Beijing’s decision has multiple political dimensions: 

Firstly, it represents the bifurcation between the US and China in the evolving struggle for tech supremacy, as well as something of a bifurcation within China itself. 

Secondly, Beijing perceives cryptocurrencies as pure speculation, and as a result, Beijing favours pursuing a financial system that serves and supports financial stability, especially given the Evergrande crisis [see above entry]. Similarly, China is currently piloting its Digital Chinese Yuan, a state-backed digital currency designed to offer the surface-level convenience of cryptocurrency with none of the privacy and decentralization benefits. As a result, Beijing perceives the coexistence of competing decentralised virtual assets such as cryptocurrencies as a means of denigrating Beijing’s plans for a state-run economy. As noted by commentators, while China is attempting to fully eradicate cryptocurrencies, Beijing remains a staunch supporter of blockchain, the digital ledger technology underpinning most cryptocurrencies. 

Thirdly, Beijing holds concerns that crypto-mining greatly detracts from Beijing’s September 2020 pledge to end its year-on-year growth of CO2 emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060, as crypto-mining commands an extreme energy-consuming and often carbon-belching process used to maintain a cryptocurrency’s network. 

As a result of Beijing’s decision, it has greatly restricted one of the world’s largest crypto-markets, crypto-miners since having decamped to other countries – from Kazakhstan to Canada and the US. [Al Jazeera] [Wired] 

Beijing: Updated regulation of algorithms and artificial intelligence

(tj) Nine central Chinese government bodies have published a three-year plan instructing local authorities to tighten the regulation of algorithms and uphold communist ideology in shaping political narratives of China’s nearly 1 billion internet users. 

Under the guidelines, companies are instructed that they will be held accountable for misusing the technology. [South China Morning Post 1]

Dissimilarly, China has revealed its first set of ethical guidelines governing artificial intelligence, placing emphasis on protecting user’s rights so that ‘that artificial intelligence is always under the control of humans’. [South China Morning Post 2]

Japan: Fumio Kishida is the new LDP president and prime minister

(lnl) Former Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida has succeeded Yoshihide Suga as prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on Wednesday, September 29, and being elected in a parliamentary vote on Monday, October 4. [BBC 1]

Kishida earned 257 votes in a runoff election against ‘Vaccine’ Minister Taro Kono who won 170 votes. In the first round, Kishida finished on top with 256 votes, while Kono earned the second-most ballots with 255. Former Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Sanae Takaichi received 188 votes, followed by former Women’s Empowerment Minister Seiko Noda with 63 votes. [The Japan News] 

Observers noticed that although there were two women in Japan’s LDP leadership race, those who decides and casts the votes are overwhelmingly men. For some women, the defeat of Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda underscores that the LDP still operates under conservative male heavyweights, and women are a long way from being equal in politics. Women are a tiny minority in Japanese politics. [AP News] Only 10% of parliament are women and “the environment for a woman to become prime minister still hasn’t been reliably created”, said youth activist Momoko Nojo. In 2020, Japan ranked 121 out of 153 countries in gender parity in the World Economic Forum report. According to Koichi Nakano, professor at Sophia University, “the (LDP) is itself very much lagging behind in promoting gender equality in the party, and the kind of women who are in more leadership positions tend to be, of course, very conservative also and not necessarily feminists”. [Reuters]

For insights into personal background of Kishida, whose father and grandfather both served as members of Japan’s House of Representatives, see [The New York Times] [BBC 2].

Kishida, who was the longest serving foreign minister in Japan between 2012-2017, is Japan’s 100th prime minister and will lead the LDP in the upcoming general election. As the term of House of Representatives members will end on October 21, a nationwide election must be held by November 28. However, Kishida plans to dissolve the parliament on October 14 and calls for an election on October 31. [The Mainichi] 

Some LDP lawmakers express concern over choosing Kishida as the candidate for the general election as he does not have the public appeal as his biggest rival in the LDP race, Taro Kono. [Japan Today] Ishiba Shigeru, a top politician in the party, believes that there is a widening gap between public opinion and the LDP establishment, and this could damage the party’s chances in the general election. [The Diplomat] 

The newly elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Fumio Kishida decided on Thursday, September 30, to fill many key posts in the party with allies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, reflecting the latter’s continued influence behind the scenes. The executive lineup includes former Economy Minister Akira Amari appointed as secretary general, the no. 2 post, and former Internal Affairs Minister and LDP leadership candidate Sanae Takaichi as the party’s policy chief, who backed him in the runoff with ‘Vaccine Minister’ Taro Kono. [Kyodo News 1]

On Monday, October 4, he then unveiled his 20-members cabinet, including 13 newcomers and three women and both Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi who will continue in office. Shunichi Suzuki has been appointed new Finance Minister to replace his own brother-in-law Taro Aso. Vaccination Minister Noriko Horiuchi, Gender Equality Minister Seiko Noda, and Digital Minister Karen Makishima are three women in the new cabinet. 

Members of the Ishiba faction, whose leader, former defense chief Shigeru Ishiba, endorsed Kono in the leadership election, were left out in the distribution of cabinet positions. [Japan Times] [Kyodo News 2]

South Korea: Air Force sets up crime unit after sex abuse case

(aml) The South Korean Air Force announced to establish a new crime investigating unit, after accusations that cover-ups by the military police had led to the suicide of a sergeant in May after she reported a sexual abuse by her supervisor [see AiR, No. 33, August/2021, 3].

The unit aims at better guaranteeing the independence of the investigators while investigating and replaces the military police which will carry out only policing their bases. The unit will consist of a central command at the Air Force headquarters as well as five regional offices and a forensic department. The family of the victim had previously demanded an investigation by a civilian to ensure an independent and fair process. [The Korea Herald 1] [The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: Key suspect in Seongnam land development scandal arrested 

(aml) The police have arrested Yoo Dong-gyu, former acting president of the Seongnam Development Corp., in connection with the Seongnam land development scandal [see AiR, No.39, September/2021, 4].

Yoo is suspected to have played a key role in designing the shareholder composition and profit distribution method, to be the owner of the investor companies in the Daejang project and receiving money from Hwacheon Daeyu, the small asset management company at the center of the scandal. Yoo already denied the allegations. He is said to have a close relationship with Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung, the leading presidential contender of the ruling Democratic Party (DPK), who had been Seongnam’s major when the project started in 2015. Lee denied any close relation to Yoo. [The Korea Herald 1][The Korea Times 1]

The main opposition People Power Party (PPP) had already demanded a special probe into the allegations against Lee, and now continues to urge the ruling party to investigate the matter. PPP chairman Lee Jun-seok said to have come across an unconfirmed list of four people who were promised payment from Hwacheon Daeyu. According to Lee, these people had close ties with the DPK and Governor Lee. [The Korea Times 2]

Kwak Sang-do, a member of the House of Representatives who had left the PPP a week ago due to his son’s involvement in the scandal, has now offered to resign from his seat in parliament. His son allegedly received unreasonably high payment from Hwacheon Daeyu. Kwak stated that he cannot continue to serve because of the “widespread misunderstanding and distrust” towards him and that a possible involvement of his son and himself will be revealed through investigations. Kwak’s resignation came after lawmakers from the DPK but also from the PPP submitted a motion to discipline him. [The Korea Herald 2] [The Korea Times 3]

South Korea: Government reviews vaccine pass 

(aml) The South Korean government is reviewing a vaccine pass that would limit the ability to visit multiuse facilities to immunized people. The goal is to facilitate distancing rules for private gatherings and facilities such as hospitals, nursing homes, entertainment establishments and movie theaters. Similar to already established vaccine passes in France or Germany, a negative PCR-test would also be accepted. The pass would especially concern the 5.73 million unvaccinated Koreans that have made up 93% of the confirmed Covid cases in the last two months. Since the cases continue to rise after the Chuseok holiday, it is feared that the upcoming national holidays National Foundation Day and Hangeul Day will further increase the number of cases. According to the ministry, the pass would take effect in early November, giving everyone the time to get fully immunized. [The Korea Herald]

The plan has been facing criticism for discriminating against people who weren’t able to receive the vaccine due to health problems or other reasons. It is planned that children and adolescents might be excluded from the rule, since it is their parent’s choice to get them vaccinated. [The Korea Times]

South Korea: Seoul major questioned by prosecutors over election law violation 

(aml) On Saturday, October 2, Seoul major Oh Se-hoon had been questioned by prosecutors over allegations of spreading false information during is electoral campaign in April. Oh, who is affiliated with the main opposition People Power Party, had served as Seoul’s major from 2006-2011 and had won against the Democratic Party’s candidate in this year’s election. In a debate prior to the election, Oh had stated that the Pi-City project, aimed at building a logistics complex and retail and business facilities on a 99,000 square-meter lot in southern Seoul, had nothing to do with his mayoral term. However, a group of civic activists had filed a complaint that this had been a lie and therefore a violation of the election law, since the relevant planning and construction deliberations had been passed during Oh’s previous term. [The Korea Herald]

South Korea: Air Force opens space enter 

(aml) The South Korean Air Force has launched a space center to expand its presence in space and strengthen defense capabilities. According to the Air Force, the center will lead projects to deploy weapons to space operations to better respond to space dangers. 

In August, Air Force chief of staff Gen. Park In-ho had met with US chief of space operations Gen. John Raymond in Colorado and agreed to form a joint consultative body on space policy to strengthen cooperation, after South Korea and the US had terminated the 19799 missile guidelines that prohibited South Korea to construct missiles with a range over 800 kilometers. The Air Force now plans to build reconnaissance satellites by 2025 and aims to be fully equipped for any space operations by 2050. [The Korea Herald 1] [The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: Vote on ‘fake-news bill’ postponed again

(aml) The ruling Democratic Party (DPK) has given up on its plans to vote on the Media Arbitration Act, called “fake-news bill” at last Wednesday’s plenary session. The bill proposed high punitive damages for media outlets producing false information. It has faced strong opposition from media organizations, civil rights groups, opposition parties and even from a special rapporteur from the UN. [AiR, No.39, September/2021, 4]

All criticism revolved around the fear that the freedom of press would be disproportionately restricted.  Although the DPK currently holds 180 of the 300 seats in the assembly and could pass the bill without the opposition’s cooperation, the DPK now decided to delay the vote and suggested the installment of a special parliamentary committee to discuss the bill. Attempts to reach an agreement with the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) had failed several times and the PPP had threatened to filibuster the bill if the DPK continued with their plans. Now, the discussion on the bill probably won’t continue in the parliamentary period this year which ends on December 9th. [The Korea Herald] [The Korea Times 1] [The Korea Times 2]

South Korea: Military plans AI-powered Army 

(aml) The South Korean Army has reviled plans for an AI-powered combat system starting in 2024 and aimed at guiding entire operations in 2040 to make them “smarter and quicker”. The “Army Tiger 4.0”, short for “Transformative Innovation of Ground forces Enhanced by the 4th industrial Revolution technology”, consists of AI-powered drones to facilitate decision-making on the battlefield as well as highly mobile armored fighting vehicles. Simulations that are run prior to the 2024 tests, began last year, and take place every month at the brigade level. They involve mobilizing the infantry and deploying 21 types of the newest weapons. [The Korea Herald]

Taiwan’s cabinet approves absentee voting for referendum

(zh) Taiwan’s cabinet approved on Thursday, September 30, the draft bill of the Central Election Commission (CEC) on conducting absentee voting in a national referendum. It has now been sent to the Legislation for deliberation. If passed, eligible voters within the country will be able to vote outside their registered constituencies. The law, however, does not apply to citizens living overseas.

Approximately 2 million employees and students nationwide can take advantage of the new policy, according to CEC. While the bill is expected to be passed soon, absentee voting is unlikely to be implemented during the upcoming national referendum on 18 December as the poll workers needs to receive at least six months preparatory training ahead of the referendum. [Focus Taiwan][Taiwan News][UDN, in Chinese]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Five arrested over the killing of prominent Rohingya activist

(ad/lm) Police in Bangladesh have arrested five suspects believed to have links to an armed insurgent group among Rohingya refugees, as officials promised justice for the killers of a prominent community leader who was killed by gunmen in one of the refugee camps in the district of Cox’s Bazar last week. [Al Jazeera]

Mohib Ullah, a high-profile figurehead for the more than 800,000-strong Muslim minority Rohingya was killed by unidentified gunmen as he spoke to other community leaders outside his office on September 29.

As a refugee living in Cox’s Bazar, he had compiled crucial records of alleged atrocities the Rohingya had suffered during the Myanmar military crackdown in August 2017, which the United Nations (UN) has said was carried out with genocidal intent. Invited to the White House and to speak to the UN Human Rights Council in 2019, he was one of the most high-profile advocates for the Rohingya. [CNN] [The Guardian]

No one has claimed responsibility for the murder, though Ullah’s family blamed militants from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an armed group present in the camp, with activists claiming they were enraged by his growing popularity in the camps. The group is also responsible for carrying out attacks on security checkpoints in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state that prompted the Myanmar military to launch the brutal crackdown against the Rohingya in 2017. [Deutsche Welle]

Two of the men were remanded in custody for three days for questioning, authorities said. The other three have not yet appeared in court. [Bangkok Post] [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Abdul Momen said in a statement that "vested" interests were responsible for the killing, as Mohibullah’s Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights (ARSPH) had played a crucial role in plans to repatriate Rohingya Muslims to Myanmar. [Dhaka Tribune 1]

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet and many other international bodies have also called upon Bangladesh to begin a "prompt, thorough, and independent investigation" into the killing. International human rights watchdogs, in turn, have urged authorities to ensure better protection for vulnerable Rohingya leaders, as different groups – accused of committing murders and abductions – are vying for control of the refugee camps. [Amnesty International] [Dhaka Tribune 2] [Human Rights Watch] [UN News]

Bangladesh: Parties should reach consensus to form new Election Commission, chief commissioner says

(ad/lm) Bangladesh’s next Election Commission (EC) should be formed after all political parties meet and reach a consensus on the matter to make it acceptable to all, EC Chief Commissioner KM Nurul Huda said last week. [Dhaka Tribune 1]

The five-year tenure of the current EC will expire in February 2022; the next Commission will be tasked with arranging the 12th parliamentary election scheduled to be held by December 2023.

Article 118 (1) of Bangladesh’s Constitution stipulates that the government shall appoint an EC consisting of the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) and up to four Election Commissioners, subject to the provision of a law supposed to be introduced on that behalf. However, no government has taken such an initiative in the last 50 years.

In the absence of the law, Bangladesh’s president formed search committees in 2012 and 2017 to appoint the CEC and commissioners.

Importantly, several high-ranking government officials, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the General-Secretary of the ruling Awami League, Obaidul Quader, have recently insisted that the new EC would be constituted through a “Search Committee” that proposes potential members of the new Commission. [Dhaka Tribune 1] [Dhaka Tribune 2]

As the five-year tenure of the current EC will expire next February, many believe that there is not enough time to pass a specific law to appoint members of the next Commission. Some observers, however, say that if the government and parliament desire, the law can be passed within a short time. [The Daily Star]

Against this backdrop, more than 50 Bangladeshi scholars and practitioners, in a statement on September 25, called on the Ministry of Law “to take urgent steps to allow the Election Commission to take the necessary lawful steps for conducting elections independently, and without any external influence.” The signatories also claim that the two previous search committees had brought the country’s electoral system “to the brink of collapse […] [by] creating among the people widespread distrust in the Election Commission and serious concerns about fair elections.” [Dhaka Tribune 3]

Bangladesh: Awami League gears up for next general election; opposition calls for interim government

(ad/lm) The next Bangladeshi general election is not to be held before December 2023, but the ruling Awami League (AL) has already begun preparations.

Before leaving the country to attend the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York about two weeks ago, Prime Minister and AL President Sheikh Hasina instructed party members to begin preparations for the next general election.

At a press conference arranged to inform about the outcomes of her trip to the United States, the prime minister on October 4 then alleged that the country’s main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) wanted to make the next general election controversial knowing that there is no chance for them to win it. [Dhaka Tribune]

The prime minister’s remarks came after the BNP had renewed its call for the establishment of an election-time special cabinet, claiming that a fair election is not possible under the incumbent administration.

The Bangladesh caretaker government system of appointing an interim, caretaker administration prior to elections was introduced in the early 1990s against the backdrop of a deep-rooted mistrust among politicians and a vicious zero-sum political culture. The constitutional provision for an unelected entity to oversee the organization of elections was abolished during the second tenure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina prior to the 2014 general elections, which the opposition boycotted, eventually handing out the ruling AL 50 percent of the parliamentary seats uncontested.

Meanwhile, AL General-Secretary Obaidul Quader on September 27 asked who the BNP’s prime ministerial candidate would be at the next general election. BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia – an arch-rival of Prime Minister Hasina’s who served two periods as prime minister – is currently on conditional release from jail in two corruption cases [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]. The acting BNP chairman, Tareq Rahman, has been residing in London since he left Bangladesh in September 2008. He also faces corruption charges.

Bangladesh: Number of child marriages rises manifold during COVID-19 pandemic

(ad) The coronavirus pandemic has caused a sharp and steady rise in child marriages in Bangladesh’s district of Cox´s Bazar, a study by a local foundation has found, raising fears that the South Asian country might not meet its goal of eliminating child marriage any time soon.

According to COAST Foundation, child marriage rates have increased significantly in the district since March 2021, with the highest increase of 82 percent in Eidgaon Upazila and the second highest increase of 75 percent in Ukhiya Upazila. [COAST Foundation]

The sharp increase of child marriage also caused a significant increase in the birth rate in Bangladesh, according to representatives of the foundation. The study also pointed out to other criteria which have an effect on surge of child marriages such as joblessness, poverty, food scarcity and fear and insecurity among parents due to the pandemic. [The Daily Prothom]

Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries in the world for child marriage. It is eighth from the bottom in South Asia, according to UNICEF. Over 50 per cent of Bangladeshi women who are now in their mid-20s were married before they turned 18. Nearly 18 per cent were below 15 years of age. [UNICEF]

Before the virus, Bangladesh had secured a notable development in curbing child marriage. Experts fear that child marriages can force girls to abandon school when the pandemic is finished, and they suggest immediate and effective action, including financial measures, to help families stop the practice.

Bangladesh: Asian Development Bank approves $250 million loan, extends $1.78 billion for Dhaka-Sylhet corridor

(lm) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $250 million policy-based loan to support Bangladesh's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first subprogramme of the programmatic $500 million Sustainable Economic Recovery Programme, ADB said in a statement on September 24. [Asian Development Bank 1] [The Financial Express]

Separately, the ADB will also be providing $1.78 billion in loans to Bangladesh under the multi-tranche financing facilities, making it the highest proposed financing from the Manila-based lender against any single project.

The "Dhaka–Sylhet Corridor Road Investment Project" will be implemented under a framework financing agreement (FFA), Bangladesh’s Finance Ministry said in a statement on October 4. Under the FFA, a first tranche over $400 million was approved on September 8 this year. The main objective of the project is to improve the sub-regional transport and trade by upgrading the approximately 210 kilometers Dhaka-Sylhet corridor to a four-lane standard. [Asian Development Bank 2]

The ADB's total loan to Bangladesh amounts to more than $26.61 billion and the total grant is about $1.053 billion.

Bangladesh: Teenagers trafficked to India sent back

(ad) Twelve teenage girls who illegally entered India two years ago under the guise of job opportunities were sent back to Bangladesh on September 30 after serving two years in jail. It turned out these girls were victims of human trafficking. [Dhaka Tribune]

Bangladesh may count on China’s support in fight against COVID-19

(ad) China’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming, assured that Beijing will support Dhaka in its fight against the COVID–19 pandemic as long as it takes to beat it. Addressing a webinar in a celebration of 72nd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the envoy also pledged his country’s support to Bangladesh in matters related to regional and global issues, such as climate change response, free trade, open economy and achieving SDGs. [Dhaka Tribune]

Bangladesh: Indian Prime Minister Modi greets Sheikh Hasina on her birthday

(ad) The longest-serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, celebrated her 75th birthday on September 28. She received several greetings, including greetings from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Embassy in Dhaka. [The Daily Star]

India: Farmers to step up protests after nine killed in clashes

(lm) Nine people have been killed in violent clashes that protesting farmers said were the fault of the son of a prominent Indian leader, in a deadly escalation of year-long demonstrations against contentious agriculture laws.

The incident in a district in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh took place after a series of run-ins in recent weeks between protesters carrying black flags and Junior Home Affairs Minister Ajay Mishra and his supporters. Mishra, who represents Lakhimpur Kheri in Parliament, warned the protesters to “behave, or we will teach you how to behave,” according to local newspaper reports. In an apparent response to the statement, hundreds of protesters tried on October 3 to block a visit by Mishra and the state’s Deputy Chief Minister, Keshav Prasad Maurya. [The New York Times]

There are conflicting reports of how four farmers and four others died as chaotic scenes broke out around vehicles that were part of Mishra’s convoy.

Farmers’ union leaders alleged that a car thought to be occupied by Mishra’s son plowed into demonstrators as the convoy was traveling past the site. But the minister said his son was not present in the car when the incident took place. He said a car driven by “our driver” lost control and hit the farmers after they threw stones at the vehicle and attacked it with sticks and a sword.

Mishra’s son, Ashish, also denied being present and said he had been at home when the collision with the farmers happened. He told an India television news channel that his car and two others had been sent out with party workers who were to greet the state minister, while he stayed behind. [The Guardian]

Police have registered a criminal complaint against 14 people, including the younger Mishra, in connection with the death of the four farmers. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – the ruling party at the national level and in Uttar Pradesh –also lodged a criminal complaint against the protesting farmers over the death of three of its party workers and a car driver.

The following day, a journalist’s body was also recovered from the scene, bringing the death toll to nine.

This was not the first time that the farmer protests have been shrouded in violence. Last year, farmers marching into the capital were met with water cannon and teargas, and were charged at by police with wooden batons [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. In another protest in January, thousands of protesting farmers deviated from agreed routes and headed for government buildings in Old Delhi where the annual Republic Day parade of troops and military hardware was taking place. One protester died and more than 80 police officers were injured [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

The incident drew further attention after the Uttar Pradesh police detained Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, a leader of India’s main opposition National Congress party who oversees the party’s activities in Uttar Pradesh. She was arrested and detained by police early on October 4 on the grounds of unlawful assembly.                                          

Gandhi’s visit to the area came against the backdrop of an upcoming state election in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state, which is seen as a bellwether for the political fortunes of the BJP [see AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2].

India: Church claims attack by Hindu mob

(lm) At least five people were injured on October 3, when some 200 men armed with rods and sticks stormed a church in north Indian state of Uttarakhand during Sunday prayer service, police said, in the latest anti-Christian violence.

The frenzied mob – allegedly comprising of members of hardline Hindu vigilante groups in state destroyed furniture, photographs and musical instruments while shouting Hindu nationalist slogans, according to church authorities. [The Wire]

Since the beginning of the year there have been similar attacks on Christian churches, mainly in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh – two Indian states with large populations of marginalized, low-caste tribal communities. The police, too, stand accused – of making threats to Christians, hauling them into police stations and carrying out raids on Sunday prayer services. [The Straits Times]

The attacks have coincided with renewed attention on a longstanding claim from rightwing Hindu groups: that pastors and activists have been converting tens of thousands of tribal people by offering cash and other incentives. Such claims have been made by senior figures in the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which governs India but is in opposition in the state government, as well as rightwing vigilante outfits. [The Guardian]

Pakistan: Prime Minister Khan promises investigation into citizens mentioned in Pandora Papers

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has promised to investigate every citizen mentioned in revelations that allegedly tie world leaders to wealth secretly moved through offshore companies.

The secret assets were uncovered by a global investigation based on more than 11.9 million financial documents leaked to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), a US-based network of reporters and media organizations which has been working with more than 140 media outlets worldwide. Published on October 3, the documents rank among history's biggest financial leaks, exposing dealings of global business and political figures. [International Consortium of Investigative Journalists]

Ownership of offshore holding companies is not illegal in most countries, and does not indicate wrongdoing, but the instrument is frequently used to avoid tax liability or to maintain secrecy around large financial transactions. [Al Jazeera]

Among those whose holdings have been exposed are two members of Khan’s Cabinet – Water Resources Minister Moonis Elahi and Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin – alongside more than 700 other Pakistani citizens, including family members of donors to the prime minister’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and opposition political leaders’ families. [The Guardian]

Significantly, the ICIJ leak named five former high-ranking military officers, including a former air force chief and two lieutenant-generals in the army, as being linked to large offshore investments in property and commercial enterprises. The window into the private wealth of individual Pakistani generals and their families is especially rare and provides a glimpse at how top military officers – known in Pakistan as “The Establishment” – use offshore to quietly enrich themselves while maintaining, until now, the military’s image as a bulwark against civilian corruption.

Khan, who, as an opposition challenger, in 2016 campaigned on the back of promises to arrest Pakistan’s “corrupt” political elites, was not personally named in the newly leaked documents. With the support of the military establishment, he had propelled his reformist PTI past its rivals in the 2018 national elections and propelled himself into the prime minister’s office in Islamabad. [The Washington Post]

Pakistan's opposition on October 4 called on Prime Minister Imran Khan to order Cabinet ministers and aides named in the Pandora Papers to resign from office and face investigation. [The Straits Times]

Separately, a row broke out in response to the papers after state television channel PTV wrongly claimed that Junaid Safdar, a grandson of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was among those named in the leak. Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) leads the opposition to the current government, was sacked by the country’s Supreme Court as prime minister in 2017 in the aftermath from a similar but narrower 2016 ICIJ investigation known as the Panama Papers. [BBC]

Sri Lanka: EU delegation meets with officials to review GSP+ concessions

(egm) A European Union (EU) delegation which arrived in Sri Lanka on September 27 to review the country’s trade concessions in light of alleged human rights abuses against ethnic minorities, has held meetings with several officials and key stakeholders to discuss matters related to the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). [Economy Next]

The visit of the delegation comes at a key moment for the South Asian nation already struggling with a shortage of foreign exchange reserves in addition to COVID-19 related challenges. The report on the delegation’s observations will be presented to the European Parliament in 2022 and could lead to substantial export losses for Sri Lanka. [Sourcing Journal]

The EU is the island nation’s second-largest trading partner and main export destination after China. The apparel industry, in particular, is concerned, seeing as garment exports accounted for more than 50 percent of total exports this year [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]. 

During his meeting with the five-member EU delegation on October 1, Sri Lankan Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris focused his endeavors on safeguarding Colombo’s GSP+ status. [Colombo Gazette]

Before, the EU delegation already held discussions with Sri Lanka’s Minister of Justice Ali Sabry in accordance with the European Parliament’s concerns on Sri Lanka’s PTA which contravenes the conventions required for the country’s continued access to the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+). The program offers Sri Lankan exporters tariff-free access to the EU market in exchange for their country for ratifying and complying with 27 international conventions related to human rights, labor rights, protection of the environment and good governance.

Earlier in June, the European Parliament adopted a resolution for the potential withdrawal of over $500 million worth of trade concessions if Sri Lanka did not repeal the PTA which has been subject to continuous criticism from the United Nations and various rights groups for enabling the arbitrary detention of individuals without charge [see AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]. [The Island]

On this note, during the meeting held on September 28, senior members of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) further highlighted the importance of repealing the PTA to the EU delegation. Additionally, the delegation was also briefed on the rights of Tamil people and their demand for a new Constitution to address the Tamil National Question having to do with the government’s decision to seek reconciliation and a significant compromise with Tamils and its leaders. [ColomboPage]

Moreover, the EU delegation was updated on the violations to Tamil’s rights and the situation with the land grabs that took place in Tamil-dominated areas to the North and East of the island nation by several Sri Lankan majority governments through the use of force motivated by irrigation scheme settlements [see also Colombo Telegraph].

On the same day, Leader of Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, Rauff Hakeem also expressed his concern over the continuous human rights violations towards minority Muslims under the PTA. During his meeting with the EU delegation, SLMC Chief Hakeem accused Sri Lanka’s majority government of using the Act to silence dissent by hunting down members of opposition parties and rights activists. [The Island]

Responding to the EU’s inquiries into the matter, the MP brought forth the widely discussed case of lawyer and activist Hejaaz Hizbullah who continues to be held under arbitrary detention under the PTA for nearly a year and a half for his alleged connection to the Easter Sunday attacks of 2019 [see also AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1]. In this respect he stressed the need for the Act’s removal while describing the emergency legislation as a tool to stifle freedom of expression, demonstrations and dissent across the country. 

Furthermore, addressing minority-rights related issues, MP Hakeem also stressed his disapproval over the government’s intervention in Muslim religious affairs while failing to suppress the spread of hate speech propagated by Buddhist monks against the Muslim minority [see AiR entry below].

“Besides, there should be punishment for inciting and acting on hate speech, but we don’t want to see that happen. It is the pro-government media that gives the opportunity for them to use the platform and the government should take measures to stop them”. Said SLMC Chief Hakeem.

Sri Lanka currently benefits from the tariff cuts provided by the GSP+ concessions which, according to exporters, have awarded a great relief in the face of high-cost production to the country. Despite claims made by Sri Lanka Podujana Peremuna (SLPP) politicians encouraging the export industry to increase productivity to avoid depending on trade benefits, the suspension of such preferential tariffs could be particularly detrimental to Sri Lanka’s industry which gains significant revenue from its exports to the EU. 

In light of the looming economic crisis and fall in state revenue resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, President Rajapaksa’s administration is seeking foreign investment and trade ties with other countries. 

Sri Lanka: Rajapaksa ruling family member named in Pandora Papers

(egm/lm) A former member of Sri Lanka’s Parliament and a scion of the powerful Rajapaksa clan, Nirupama Rajapaksa was featured in revelations that allegedly tie world leaders to wealth secretly moved through offshore companies. High ranking officials have already begun investigations into the leaked data, known as the Pandora Papers. [DailyMirror]

The secret assets were uncovered by a global investigation based on more than 11.9 million financial documents leaked to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), a US-based network of reporters and media organizations which has been working with more than 140 media outlets worldwide. Published on October 3, the documents rank among history's biggest financial leaks, exposing dealings of global business and political figures. [International Consortium of Investigative Journalists] [The Guardian]

According to the information released on October 3, Nirupama Rajapaksa and her husband, Thirukumar Nadesan, jointly controlled a shell company managed by a Singapore trust firm which they used to carry out investments and to buy luxury apartments in London and Sydney.

As revealed in the leaks, Nirupama Rajapaksa’s husband allegedly assembled further shell companies and trusts in secrecy jurisdictions which allowed him to develop contracts with foreign companies collaborating in business with Sri Lanka’s government without having to disclose his banking activities or being subject to supervision. 

Using the same method to buy artworks, according to Pandora Papers, Nadesan was able to transfer 31 paintings in 2018 through his company, Pacific Commodities, to the Geneva Freeport warehouse known for its hush security and for not subjecting assets to any taxes or duties. 

In leaked confidential emails to the Singapore-based Asiaciti Trust service provider in charge of managing some of Nadesan’s offshore companies and trusts, an adviser of Nadesan estimated his overall wealth from 2011 onwards at more than $160 million. Although the number has not been verified yet, (ICIJ) analysts have valued his assets at approximately $18 million. 

Both Nirupama Rajapaksa and her husband have refused to answer any related claims and questions presented by the ICIJ.

Sri Lanka: Muslim MPs file charges against monk Gnanasara Thera for propagating hate speech

(egm) A group of seven Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) MPs filed complaints against Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) General Secretary Gnanasara Thera for allegedly propagating hate speech in several media interviews conducted over the past month. [Daily News] [The Morning]

The parliamentarians presented their accusations with the Inspector General of Police (IGP) and the Criminal Investigations Department (CID) following concerns over the monk’s hate speech. One of such complaints was filed by Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Mujibur Rahuman on September 24 for fear of the possible racial tensions such speech could incite between minority Muslim and majority Sinhala Buddhist communities.

In a similar manner, Rauhman also addressed a letter to Mass Media Minister Dullas Alahpperuma last week concerning his displeasure with the racism promoted by the state media channel during the interview with Gnanasara Thera on September 18 where he referred to Muslims as extremists. 

According to the parliamentarians, Thera’s televised claims where he accuses Sri Lanka Muslims of being violent-oriented and holding their religion accountable for encouraging the Ester Sunday bombings of 2019, constitute an offence under the Prevention of Terrorism Act and other laws as they incite ethno-religious hate. In light of this, they have requested immediate and transparent action from the CID and that Gnanasara Thera be held accountable under criminal proceedings. 

Furthermore, the final report of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) in charge of investigating the Easter Sunday attacks, has accordingly recommended the filing of criminal charges against Thera following allegations of his involvement promoting racial tensions in Aluthgama and Beruwala during the mob attack on Muslims in June 2014 that resulted in at least four deaths and approximately 80 injured.

Sri Lanka: Prison officers should be fired if they do not display professional conduct, Defense Minister says

(egm) Sri Lanka's Defense Secretary Kamal Gunaratne has spoken out against any prison officials who do not follow a conduct of "professional dignity" during his speech at a conference on riot and hostage situation management in prisons. [Tamil Guardian]

Mr. Gunaratne’s statement follows a previous incident involving State Minister Lohan Ratwatte's breaking into Anuradhapura prison and forcing Tamil prisoners held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act to kneel before him at gunpoint [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3]. 

Prison officers denied witnessing the scene after being questioned by Sri Lanka’s Human Rights Commission, thus raising concerns for allowing the Minister to roam the grounds unsupervised. 

These events also come amidst allegations over the abuse of power perpetrated by Si Lanka’s police under the semblance of pandemic management. Some of the abuses noted by the international organization include police brutality, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings under police custody [see AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2].

It also follows a damning report by Human Rights Watch which has highlighted how Sri Lanka's police have abused their powers under the guise of pandemic prevention. Amongst the abuses listed are police brutality, arbitrary detentions, and extrajudicial killings whilst under police custody.

Sri Lanka: Teacher and principal unions warn of impending protests

(egm) Teachers’ and principals’ unions announce forthcoming protests related to ongoing trade union struggles and matters surrounding salary anomalies unless the government presents a solution to their issues. With plans in March for reopening the country after the COVID-19 imposed lockdown, the unions warn of the possibility to continue the street protests which were previously suspended due to the regulations imposed to combat the pandemic. [The Morning]

According to Ceylon Teachers’ Union (CTU) President Priyantha Fernando, an extensive number of trade union members from several sectors are expected to participate in these protests alongside teachers and principals. The representatives who have already met on September 28 to discuss the struggle, include unions from the health, transport, and telecommunications sectors. 

As revealed by the Federation of University Teachers’ Associations (FUTA) on September 27, the union has decided to join the trade union struggle in collaboration with the CTU to pressure authorities into taking immediate action to resolve their issues or opening ground for negotiation. Since July, their actions have been directed towards the areas of the salary anomaly issue and the demand for facilities dedicated to online education activities. 

The early protests involved teachers’ withdrawal from physical and online activities as well as their refusal to send applications for examinations or to engage in any duties related to the General Certificate of Education (GCE) Advanced Level (A/L) and Grade Five Scholarship.

Sri Lanka: Colombo Municipal Council staff goes on strike against Municipal Councilor

(egm) Administrative staff of the Colombo Municipal Council have staged a protest at Town Hall against Councilor Tony Ramsey for allegedly threatening the Municipal Treasurer. [Newswave]

According to the strikers, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) member of the Colombo Municipal Council had threatened and scolded the municipal treasury under the accusation of failing to provide the financial assistance required to supply a relief package to low-income families in Colombo struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Following the issue, the Cinnamon Gardens Police arrested Councilor Ramsey after recording a statement on the incident. As established by the Colombo Additional Magistrate, he has been released on a surety bail of Rs. 50,000. [DailyMirror]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Journalist convicted for “disinformation”

(nd) A news website owner was convicted by a provincial court for incitement to cause a felony for posting “disinformation” on a land dispute in a national park. The journalist running the Koh Kong Hot News website according to the state attorney admitted to falsely claiming an eviction of villagers by the police was unlawful, which caused “confusion”. The journalist was sentenced to a one-year prison term.

Human rights groups have frequently accused the government of misusing the judiciary to fight dissent and the opposition. According to the Cambodian Journalists Alliance Association, 35 cases of harassment against 72 journalists were recorded in 2020. [Reuters]

Cambodia: Lobby firm hired to improve government’s image

(tl) In an attempt to revive its image in the eyes of world public opinion, the Cambodian government has decided to rely on a large US lobbying firm, known for representing some of the world’s most notorious regimes. On 15 September, Cambodian Ambassador to the United States Chum Sounry signed a contract with Qorvis Communications, a well-known US communications lobbyist. In return for a monthly fee of $69300, the company will provide strategic communications and media relations services in support of increasing public awareness along with travel and tourism for the Kingdom of Cambodia.

The Cambodian government has defended its reliance on the company, despite criticism from NGOs in the country and the opposition party, who have labelled the payment of Qorvis a waste of public money. According to the opposition member, Qorvis 's maneuvers will not convince the Biden administration to end the sanctions affirming that “[o]nly the restoration of democracy and respect for human rights will prevent additional sanctions.”

Cambodian President Hun Sen's move is an attempt to save the image of the country, which is faced with international accusations of violating human rights and repressing political opposition, independent media activity and the development of NGOs in the country. Indeed, the country is still caught in the grip of US sanctions against members of the government and the suspension of privileged trade with the European Union. [See article below in the international relations section] [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

Cambodia: Former CNRP musician arrested

(nd) A former commune councilor for the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was arrested on charges of conspiracy and incitement upon his return from exile in Thailand. He was a member of a CNRP musical group performing songs critical of the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen. He was jailed for two months in 2019 and fled to Thailand upon his release. The latest arrest was based on a warrant issued upon him being sentenced in absentia for two years and eight months in prison.

In a separate case, Human Rights Watch (HRW) called government action against journalist and activist Youn Cheav “repeated harassment”. Youn Cheav reports on corruption and land grabs and now faces a lawsuit initiated by the Defense Minister, one of many governmental actions HRW Deputy Asia Director Phil Robertson refers to as “systematically silencing the few independent journalists and media outlets left in the country.”

Currently, over 90 opposition figures and activists have been arrested for “incitement and conspiracy,” according to sources. Following the arrest of its president Kem Sokha, the Supreme Court dissolved the CNRP in November 2017, preluding a wider crackdown on civil society, enabling Hun Sen’s CPP to will all 125 seats in the 2018 general election. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Authorities threaten legal action against Chinese-owned casinos

(nd) Cambodian authorities threatened with legal action against Chinese-owned casinos and other businesses in Sihanoukville. This move comes after workers accused the owners to force their staff to keep working despite being infected with COVID-19. One infected worker died, which was neither communicated to her family nor was a compensation offered. Allegedly, workers had to continue their work despite an infection without receiving any treatment.

While the Chinese investment has brought jobs for Cambodians, for years the casino-focused industry has been accused of using unscrupulous business practices, engaging in criminal activities, and demonstrating unbecoming behavior by Chinese businessmen, residents, and tourists. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Increase in minimum wage not supported by workers and trade unions

(tl) Cambodia’s Ministry of Labor announced that it will increase the minimum wage for garment and footwear workers by 2$ from 192$ to 194$. Ministry officials added that the other benefits under Cambodia’s labor law will remain those of the previous years. The measure will take effect from 1 January 2022 while protest arose in the country among workers and associations that consider the increase inadequate to meet workers’ needs. 

Before the government decided on the wage increase, trade unions had expressed their support for a minimum wage of 204 USD. Kong Athit, president of the Coalition of Cambodian Apparel Workers’ Democratic Union, said that some members of the Labor Advisory Committee voted in favor of the increase without considering the actual conditions of the workers.

Trade Unions added that the government has recently reduced paid leaves, while workers also had to cope with the increasing inflation. The president of the Cambodian Alliance of the Trade Unions declared that a minimum wage would allow workers to have “a decent life”, underlining that they now struggle every day whit overcrowded transportations and expensive rents and that they must pay almost 1$ for each meal. 

Athit stated that the Labor Advisory Committee is composed by 17 members representing the labors unions, the government and the Garment Manufacturers Association, but that only four union members voted in favor of a new $204 minimum wage for the workers.

Ath Thun, president of the Cambodian Labor Confederation, indicated that workers might soon organize protests against the increase that they do not consider sufficient and that the government should then respond with a higher wage. “Protests would help to [redefine the minimum wage] and would close loopholes in the law,” he said. [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: Anti-graft agency workers vow to resume their fight

(nd) On the last day of their job, dismissed staffers from Indonesia’s anti-corruption agency vowed to continue their fight against graft. The government has offered some of them positions in the national police to fight corruption, which prompted an outcry and allegations their termination forms part of efforts to undermine and sideline the once independent KPK.

In May, 75 employees of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) were dismissed from duty by the National Civil Service Agency (NCSA), following their failure to pass in a civics exam, the so-called National Outlook Test. The test was made mandatory in the wake of the transmission from an independent institution to one under the executive branch of the government. Critics therefore called it an ideology purity test, which allegedly aimed at getting rid of the most senior graft investigators. Those who have failed the tests were involved in high-level corruption cases involving senior politicians and police generals, including an ongoing probe against two former members of President Joko Widodo’s cabinet.

The KPK was established in 2002 and has contributed to the convictions of former ministers, governors, central bankers, legislators, and tycoons. The amendments to bring the institution under executive control were passed by the parliament in 2019, prompting street protests. A petition filed with the Constitutional Court by former KPK commissioners to overturn the amended law was rejected. [Benar News]

Indonesia: Papuan protesters arrested

(nd) During a protest in Jakarta, police arrested 17 indigenous Papuans. The protest marked the 59th anniversary of the Rome Agreement, an UN-backed agreement that transferred authority over the former Dutch colony West Papua to Indonesia, including a guarantee that Papuans would get a referendum on the subject. According to the police, the protesters’ gathering violated current distancing regulations due to the pandemic. They were released after questioning. According to protesters, the arrested were manhandled and put into a van directly upon arrival, some claimed tear gas was used and protesters beaten. [UCA News]

For decades, Papua has a low-level separatist insurgency simmering, following Indonesian annexing in 1963. In 1969, an UN-backed vote formally incorporated it to Indonesia, although critics do not accept it for only 1,000 people participated. The area is resource-rich but underdeveloped and, therefore, among Indonesia’s poorest regions. Rebel attacks continue, most famously in April with the killing of an army general, prompting President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to step up efforts against the insurgents, including inter alia designating the separatist rebels a terrorist group. Recently, plans to renew the Papua Special Autonomy Law were met with street protests. [See also AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4 AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]

Malaysia: UMNO member graft acquittals cast doubt on promises to fight corruption

(nd) Since June, three senior UMNO officials on corruption-related charges were acquitted. The most recent acquittal involves the secretary-general of UMNO, Ahmad Maslan, whose charges of money laundering and giving false statements to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) were dropped by the Kuala Lumpur High Court upon him paying a 1.1 million ringgit (U.S. $262,850) fine. The other two are lawmaker and former cabinet minister Tengku Adnan Mansor, and former Sabah state Chief Minister Musa Aman, acquitted in July and June respectively.

According to analysts, these acquittals shed an unfavorable light on promises to fight corruption made by UMNO, which came back to power in early 2020 as largest party in Yassin Muhyiddin’s coalition. After his resignation in August, Ismail Sabri Yaakob of UMNO was appointed as successor by the king following his nomination by 114 of the 220 members of parliament.

In public opinion, political analysts argue, UMNO is connected with corruption in the perception of citizens, reflected in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), an annual ranking by Berlin-based watchdog group Transparency International. When UMNO returned in 2020 after losing power in the 2018 elections, Malaysia’s CPI ranking fell from 51 the year before to 57 among 180 countries. The drop was attributed to the sudden change in government.

Opposition members referred to double-standards in the judicial system, and therefore an eroding trust in the Attorney-General’s Office and the judiciary system. Also, according to political analysts, people are likely to perceive the latest decision negatively, reflecting a downward trend of good governance, transparency and accountability. The most recognizable UMNO members, former prime minister Najib Razak and party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, are both still facing trials in connection with the sovereign wealth fund 1MDB. [Benar News]

Political activists, minors and elderly shot by troops as rights group calls for “terrorist” label from UN

(ds) Troops for Myanmar’s junta regime have assassinated dozens of activists and civilians in recent days as unbridled violence proceeds across the country. The deaths of activists for the toppled National League for Democracy (NLD) government all took place either while in detention or during raids. 

What is more, a 24-year-old activist was executed in an attack on his home in Bago City. Four youths were killed in what the regime described as a “shoot-out” between guerrillas and government armed forces in the Yangon Region. In Kayah State’s Demoso Township occurred the deaths of a police officer who was on strike, accompanied by another local villager. Also, in Demoso, a 70-year-old man was shot, and his body left on the ground. All deaths took place in areas involved in the resistance movement and which have seen intense fighting since February’s coup.[The Irrawaddy 1] 

In light of increasing reports of torture, executions, and arbitrary detentions in the Southeast Asian nation, an independent rights group has called for the UN to declare Myanmar’s junta a terrorist organization. [The Irrawaddy 2] The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) further cites the regime’s use of landmines that target civilians, in addition to the junta’s burning down and bombarding of residential areas. [The Irrawaddy 3] 

In response to the bloodshed, the pro-democracy insurgency has vowed to step up its own attacks in what is being referred to as the Spring Revolution, a movement that has been increasingly active after the declaration of a “people’s war” against the junta early in September. A spokesperson for the exiled government, Dr. Sasa, has claimed this week that there is “no future” for Myanmar if the Revolution is lost and went on to say that the regime’s actions constituted war crimes against the Burmese people. [The Irrawaddy 4] 

Myanmar’s economic woes set to continue 

(ds) Myanmar’s national currency, the kyat, has lost 60% of its value against the US Dollar since the military takeover in February. The rapid inflation in the country has driven up the price of staples including rice and petrol, causing shortages. A lack of cash has meant queues regularly form in front of banks as Burmese citizens panic to access cash. Similarly, gold shops and money exchanges have closed across the country due to short supplies. In its recent report, the World Bank named COVID-19 as a key factor in Southeast Asia’s economic contraction, announcing that Myanmar’s economy in particular, will have shrunk by 18% by the last quarter of 2021. [Reuters 1]

A spokesperson for the ruling junta has stated that while a surge in COVID-19 cases is partly to blame, moreover the Central Bank of Myanmar has been unable to correct the fluctuations of the kyat. Zaw Min Tun added that the regime “will have to take responsibility” for the economic crisis. This is not the first time Myanmar’s economy has tanked due to the military seizing control; 2007’s Saffron Revolution saw food and gas prices skyrocket, causing tensions. [Reuters 2] 

UN chief demands urgent action 

(ds) An urgent international effort is required to deal with the deteriorating crisis in Myanmar, according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a UN report. The document, sent out on August 31, was approved by 119 countries, with another 36 abstaining and one, Belarus, voting against it. Guterres made particular mention of the welfare of the Rohingya and other ethnic minorities, who are suffering under the junta’s rule. Myanmar’s UN ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun was given the position under the now-ousted government’s administration and has been able to keep his job, but no Myanmar representative will be speaking in front of the UN General Assembly.[Channel News Asia]

Military land grabs force hundreds to relocate

(ds) The military has sequestered land in Myanmar’s Mandalay region, forcing the local residents to relocate. Radio Free Asia (RFA) has reported that at least 200 villagers were coerced to move on at gunpoint, as well as forced to demolish or pack up their houses to transfer them to new areas. Residents decried the military’s actions to RFA, adding that the rainy season further complicated the relocation. This is not the first time the government has required residents to renounce claims to land, rather, some activists claim that official figures do not reveal the millions of acres confiscated from Burmese civilians. Rights groups also stated that the aggressive manner in which the military takes the land, instead of going through legal proceedings, sends a strong signal that the armed forces continue to act with impunity. Human Rights Watch says that disputes between agriculturalists and the government date back decades and that those left without access to the land are not given adequate compensation. [Radio Free Asia]

Clashes displace thousands, 100 deaths in September, half of population living in poverty: UN

(ds) Against a backdrop of political tumult and sustained clashes, the UN’s highest-ranking humanitarian correspondent to Myanmar, Andrew Kirkwood, reported that close to 20 million people, almost half the population, will be or are already living in poverty. Kirkwood pointed to “a devastating third wave” of COVID cases over the summer and a plummeting economy as the main causes of the increase in destitute people. He added that the violence between the military junta and various resistance groups is preventing much-needed aid supplies to reach rural communities. [The Irrawaddy 1] 

As battles continue to rage across the country, hundreds of thousands of civilians are being pushed to flee their homes. In recent days, skirmishes between the junta and the Karenni resistance groups in the Kayah State have forced more hundreds to escape. The Karenni State Consultative Council claims around half of the usual population of the area have been internally displaced. [The Irrawaddy 2] 

As the turmoil in the Southeast Asian nation continues, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a humanitarian monitoring group, has reported that in September alone close to 100 Burmese were killed in actions taken by Myanmar’s junta. Included within that cohort were the deaths of children, elderly people, and medical workers. These new figures amount to a new total of 1,146 people who have lost their lives due to the violence following the February 1 coup. [The Irrawaddy 3]

ASEAN-led peace talks falter as junta stalls on cooperation, envoy denied visit with Suu Kyi 

(ds) Myanmar’s junta has effectively forbidden diplomatic access to imprisoned pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 76, who is currently awaiting trial for a series of charges that together could culminate in decades behind bars. Despite the former leader and Nobel Peace laureate’s ill health, the Special Envoy to Myanmar for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will not be allowed to see her, the junta announced. [Asia Times]ASEAN noted that if the junta’s failure to cooperate persists, its leader, Min Aung Hlaing, will not be permitted to attend the Association’s summit.

This latest development adds to the troubles of the ASEAN-led mediation effort, which was initiated in response to the junta’s toppling of Suu Kyi’s democratically-elected government in February. After what observers derided as laggard decision-making, in August ASEAN appointed Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof as envoy, whose task it is to foster peace talks between the junta and the resistance groups.  [The Jakarta Post] 

Previously, in April, ASEAN had released a five-step roadmap in a move towards resolving the crisis in the Southeast Asian nation, a plan that includes ceasing the violence, facilitating dialogue, allowing ASEAN-led mediation, permitting humanitarian assistance, and granting access to the country by the special envoy. The plan is yet to be fully realized.

At a meeting this week, foreign ministers of ASEAN member-states expressed their disappointment with the latest developments, which suggest a continuation of the regime’s lack of cooperation with ASEAN, thus perpetuating the suffering of the Burmese people. [Al Jazeera] 

Philippines: President candidacy registration opened

(nd) On October 1, the registration for running for president opened until October 8. So far, Senator Manny Pacquiao, Manila Mayor and former actor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, senator and former police chief Panfilo Lacson, and current vice president and opposition leader Leni Robredo have officially announced their presidential run. Christopher “Bong” Go was rumored to run but has declined it. A Duterte ally and trusted aid, he is seen as the gatekeeper to the president. Critics have suggested he would run as Duterte’s proxy and step aside for a potential vice president Duterte to become president again. Sara Duterte-Carpio, daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, has long led opinion polls but continuously denied a bid. She already declared to re-run as Davao city mayor, which observers likened to her father’s dramatic last-minute bid in 2015. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, son to the late dictator and his namesake, has been rumored to run as vice president with Duterte-Carpio. The Marcos family in trying to regain foothold in politics by rebuilding the image produced by Marcos’s martial law era in the 1970s. [Reuters 1]

Over the weekend, President Rodrigo Duterte announced his retirement from politics, stating it is “Sara-Go”, referring to his daughter and his aid, to run for president and vice president. While Duterte-Carpio still tops opinion poll, Go does not have a voter base of his own and would not add anything to the tandem. [Reuters 2] [BBC]

Philippines: Tax investigations for influencers announced

(nd) The Bureau of Internal Revenue has announced to investigate 250 social media influencers for their tax payments. They reported to have received hints some influencers might have not declared their income correctly, including goods their receive in exchange for promotion.

Without specifying the sum, the government said this move would raise revenue, amid a massive economic crunch due to the ongoing pandemic. In 2020, the GDP shrank 9,5%. 

Also, the government announced to raise taxes on offshore gambling companies, introducing a 5% gaming tax, and employers and service providers subject to a 25% final withholding tax rate. Still pending presidential approval, the bill shall collect an extra 60 billion pesos for 2021 and 2022.

Critics say the government should rather target real estate oligarchs and other “rich families”, who are often even relieved or at least reluctant to be taxed allegedly due to their political connections. Instead, the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (Train) law and (Create) Act increased taxes on oil and basic commodities, further burdening the poorest 75% of the population. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines: Broad support for probe into allocation pf pandemic fund

(nd) 13 high-profile organizations urged the government to cooperate with a probe into alleged misuse of pandemic funds. Including academic, business, and religious groups, this is the broadest yet call to inquire into the alleged mishandling of the $1.3 billion of funds. 

The state auditor flagged “deficiencies” in the handling of supply contracts, alleging corruption due to overpriced deals. President Rodrigo Duterte then ordered cabinet members to seek his consent before appearing in Senate hearings, calling the investigation "a witch hunt in aid of election."

As one of Asia’s most effected countries, the Philippines has recorded more than 2.6 million COVID-19 cases and over 38,800 deaths. [Reuters]

Singapore: Foreign interference law passed

(py) Parliament approved a law granting larger powers to the government to handle foreign interference with respect to media. 75 members voted in favor, 11 objected, 2 abstained. The law will allow the authorities to force internet and social media service providers as well as website operators to disclose user information, block content and remove content. Appeals against such decisions are revised by a tribunal chaired by a judge, whose decision cannot be appealed.

Experts and the opposition criticized the law’s wide scope and the limited possibility of judicial review. This way, the judiciary is blocked from its core task of reviewing the executive’s use of the law. Due to its broad language the law is likely to also formally capture legitimate usage of media , increasing pressure on social society and independent media.

Earlier, the Worker’s Party, Singapore’s main opposition, proposed changes to the foreign interference law to enable the judiciary to supervise executive actions, including a more thorough investigation into the executive powers. The Bill also sparked resistance from the public, with a Change.org petition collecting over 5,000 signatories, which was endorsed by over 30 civil society organizations in Singapore. Amidst concerns, Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs assured that Singaporeans expressing political views would not be criminalized unless they were agents of a foreign body.

The Foreign Interference (countermeasures) Act was introduced to combat hostile information campaigns and local proxies by foreign bodies with intentions to interfere with domestic politics. 

Without naming China, the bill’s introduction referenced two scenarios of Chinese activity in Australia and the European Union, one being former Labor Party member Sam Dastyari who resigned from the Senate over his China connections in 2018, and Czech member of the European Parliament Jan Zahradil, who is being investigated over allegedly failing to properly disclose financial support from China. According to a report by the French Military School Strategic Research Institute, China is able to use its influence on Singapore to target its “vulnerabilities” including its multi-ethnic population, through information manipulation. [AIR No. 37, September/2021, 2] [Reuters 1] [Reuters 2] [South China Morning Post] [The Straits Times]

Thailand: Central Bank warns economy remains fragile, with shocks exposure

(kk) Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said that the Thai economy is “not resilient” and “fragile”, adding the need to encompass other issues such as social and environmental factors. Sethaput told a symposium Thailand has limited capacity to withstand shocks amid the pandemic as the economic structure is heavily dependent on foreign countries, including tourism and exports, as well as a growing reliance on foreign workers. High inequality and a large informal sector also played a part in preventing Thai economy to be more resilient to challenges. Vulnerable households and businesses are often affected by drastic changes, which would take a long time to recover from and restrain the overall economic recovery. [Reuters 1]

Thailand is dealing with its worst wave of the pandemic, while the tourism sector still struggling. The economy suffered a 6.1% contraction last year and the central bank predicts growth of 0.7% this year. [Reuters 2]

Thailand: Constitutional Court delays marriage equality ruling

(kk) The Constitutional Court postponed its ruling on marriage equality to December 14.

An LGBTQ couple, along with the Foundation for Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Rights and Justice (For-SOGI), had filed a petition with the Constitutional Court, asking the court to rule whether Section 1448 of the Thai Civil and Commercial Code, which limits the definition of a marriage to consist of only a man and a woman, violates the Constitution.

Since then, the court has delayed the ruling several times. According to Sanya Eadjongdee, a lawyer for the foundation, the hearing was scheduled for September 28, but was then postponed by the court without giving a reason. Sanya said he told the court that placing LGBTQ couples under a different law - the Civil Partnership bill - means that they are not equal to heterosexual couples, which could be considered discrimination. 

The lawyer added if the court rules that Section 1448 violates the Constitution, same-sex couples would be able to cite the court ruling to have their marriages recognized by official registrars. Nevertheless, Sanya said lawmakers still have to push for parliament to pass a law in accordance with the Constitutional Court’s order, so that there is a law allowing for the order to be put into practice. [Khaosod English]

In 2020, the cabinet approved a civil partnership bill that would allow same-sex unions legal rights largely similar to married couples, however, the bill has to be approved by the House of Parliament for the law to be effective. The bill was widely criticized for not giving LGBTQ couples same rights as heterosexual couples. [See AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2] 

Meanwhile, a bill proposing amendments to the Civil and Commercial Code, proposed by MPs from the Move Forward Party (MFP), was submitted to parliament in June 2020, and is likely to be considered by the parliament during its upcoming session in November this year. The bill proposes that the terminology used in the law be changed to use “spouses” instead of “husband” and “wife” and “person” instead of “man” and “woman”, which would ensure LGBTQ couples the same rights as heterosexual couples. [Prachatai English]

Thailand: Suspect in shooting of young protestor arrested

(kk) Police arrested a man suspected of shooting a young protestor at Din Daeng intersection in August. The deputy commissioner of the Metropolitan Police Bureau said the suspect was taken into custody for allegedly shooting a 15-year-old boy in the neck while the latter was demonstrating near the Din Daeng police station on the night of August 16. [See AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3] [Bangkok Post]

According to the latest update from Thalu Gaz group, the 15-year-old boy is still in the intensive care unit and would be paralyzed for life. [See AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3]

Thailand: Police expects daily protests to shrink as legal action toughens; protest vows to reach the House

(kk) Police believes daily protests are likely to persist but diminish in size as protestors face tougher legal action.

On September 28, Thalu Fah group staged a rally at Nang Loeng intersection and attempting to approach the Government House to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha. The police blocked the rally and arrested nine people, two of whom were minors, for illegal assembly, causing unrest and violating the disease control law. [Khaosod Online, in Thai] 

The police also summoned and fined Worawan Sae Aung, referred to as “Pa Pao” or “Aunty Pao”, who had stripped in front of riot police to protest against the alleged harsh handling of the protesters. [Thai PBS World]

Thalu Fah group gathered at the same spot and was blocked by the police for the fourth consecutive day. Nang Loeng has become another protest site, in addition to Din Daeng – where young demonstrators led by the Thalu Gaz group hold daily rallies as they try to reach the residence of Prayuth inside the 1st Infantry Regiment. Thalu Fah insisted that they would not be discouraged by the police force. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Controversy over PM’s term limit

(kk) The Prime Minister's Secretariat Office representative accused the opposition of misinterpreting the constitution to put a premature end to Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha’s term. The opposition claimed Prayuth's term as prime minister will reach its limit in August 2022, as his premiership technically began on the day he was installed as the head of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) following the 2014 coup. According to Section 158 of the Thai constitution, the maximum term limit of Prime minister’s premiership is eight years, regardless of whether or not the four-year terms are served continuously.

In response, Thippanan Sirichana - former deputy spokeswoman for the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) who is currently attached to the Prime Minister's Secretariat Office - insisted Prayuth’s premiership began when the current charter was promulgated in 2017, as the constitution acknowledges the tenure of ministers who continued their duty from the NCPO regime officially began on that day. Thippanan accused the opposition of bringing up the subject for debate to damage the PM’s legitimacy, adding that the opposition’s claims were a "misinterpretation" of Section 158. [Bangkok Post]

Meanwhile, the opposition filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission against the PM, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Agriculture Minister Chalermchai Sri-on, alleging the government's mishandling of the vaccine procurement, corruption in the procurement of antigen test kits (ATK) and the abuse of rubber stockpile quota causing the price of rubber to collapse. [See AiR No. 36, September/2021, 1] [See also AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2] 

Thailand: Pheu Thai MP accused of bribery

(kk) A Pheu Thai MP was accused of bribery with respect to the 2021 budget allocation of a government department. Anurak Tangpanitanon was accused of demanding bribes from Sakda Wichiansilp, director-general of the Department of Groundwater Resources, who filed a complaint to The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). Sakda claimed the MP demanded bribes in exchange for not decreasing the department's budget allocation. The NACC secretary-general revealed that the NACC's investigation found there is evidence supporting the allegation against the MP. According to its findings, the Pheu Thai MP allegedly demanded five-million baht from Sakda through a phone call. The NACC said it would lodge a petition with the Supreme Court against the MP for violating the ethical code and submit the findings to the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) to file criminal charges with the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions. [Bangkok Post] [Thai PBS World]

Vietnam: Clashes between crowds and police at the borders of the country's main cities

(tl) Heavy clashes between protesters and police took place on October 1 when people tried to get out of the country's main cities after lockdown measures were eased. 

In Ho Chi Minh City, crowds of workers from rural areas broke through barricades at the city's borders and clashed with the police, while others knelt to ask the police to let them pass to return to their towns. 

In Binh Duong, Vietnam's southern province, at least one person was injured when police used batons to disperse crowds gathered to demand the removal of barricades to return to their villages. 

In the early stages, Vietnam has been rather effective in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, while currently cases are on a rise, prompting stricter regulations and enforcement, which in turn triggered protests. Citizens were prevented from leaving their homes except for essential services. 

Due to a high national labor migration, these measures have resulted in an exponential increase in the unemployment rate and a sharp reduction in income. Due to higher living costs in the city, many protested to be able to return to their countryside homes. Therefore, the local government in Ho Chi Minh City planned to organize buses for those wishing to return to their home province, while city dwellers are still prohibited from leaving its borders. Once back home, all those returning from Ho Chi Min City will be required to register at centers set up in their municipality to facilitate tracking of the individual by local authorities. [Radio Free Asia]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US relations: Blinken October 1 congratulatory note signaling efforts to ease tensions?

(dql) US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s congratulatory note sent on the occasion of China’s National Day on October 1 is seen by observers as indication efforts on the US side to ease tensions as it appears to be much less provocative than the one of his predecessor Mike Pompeo a year earlier. Blinken’s note reads: “As the United States seeks to work cooperatively to solve the challenges we all face, we wish the people of the PRC peace, happiness and prosperity over the coming year.” In Pompeo’s message “PRC” was dropped: “The United States wishes the people of China health, prosperity, happiness and peace in the coming year.” [South China Morning Post]

Chinese and US military officials hold talks

(dql) Chinese and US Defense officials held two days of talks via video conference in September 28 and 29.  The second round of high-level defence discussions since Joe Biden took office, the talks come shortly after the conclusion of the Aukus pact between the US, the UK and Australia.

A Pentagon statement called the discussion “frank, in-depth and open,” emphasizing that “both sides reaffirmed consensus to keep communication channels open.” The wrap up of the talks of the Chinese Defense Ministry is much less diplomatic. While welcoming the talks, it, however, sharply criticized that “the US has serious issues with its self-awareness, its perception of China and in its understanding of the world today, which is the root cause of the difficulties in the relationship between our militaries.” [South China Morning Post]

China to face US-EU efforts to deepen trade and technology cooperation  

(dql) Eying China, top US and European Union officials – including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, and Trade Representative Katherine Tai on the US side and Executive Vice President of the European Commission for An Economy that Works for People Valdis Dombrovskis and European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager on the European side – held the inaugural meeting of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) on Wednesday, September 29, at which they pledged and laid out plans to deepen their coordination of responses to emerging technologies and pressing trade threats, including regulating artificial intelligence, easing the semiconductor shortage and combating human rights abuses.

They also set up ten working groups on data governance and technology platforms; technology standards; climate and clean technology; secure supply chains;  information and communication technology and services (ICTS) security and competitiveness, covering sensitive and critical areas such as 5G, undersea cables, data centers, and cloud infrastructure; misuse of technology which threatens security and human rights, including unlawful surveillance and internet shutdowns;  export controls; investment screening; promoting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) access to and use of digital tools; and global trade challenges, covering avoiding new and unnecessary technical barriers in products and services. [Reuters]

The formation of the US-EU TTC was first announced by US President Joe Biden and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in June 15, 2021.

Global Times was quick to cite Chinese scholars to object the US-EU TTC as a attempt “not only to control the development path of global emerging technologies, but also to take the commanding position in the formulation of standards, rules and norms of emerging technologies and frontier industries, so as to prevent China from expanding its influence throughout standards and industry norms.” [Global Times]

China’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, sharply rejected a statement made by Raimondo calling it a typical act of autocracy and hegemony,” and an “attempt to contain and suppress China’s development.” [Foreign Ministry, People’s Republic of China]

Raimondo said on the eve of the first meeting of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council: “If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe.” [CNN]

China-US trade relations: Beijing lagging behind purchase commitments of trade deal

(dql) China is lacking behind purchase commitments for 2021 made under the phase-one trade deal with the US. According to a report released by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), an American think tank based in Washington, D.C., Chinese import data and US export data reveal that China’s purchases of US goods from January to August reached only 69% (US$89.4 billion) and 62% (US$70.6 billion) of the year-to-date target (US$113 billion).

The US and China concluded the deal in January 2020, whose terms took effect one month later, under which with China committed to buying an additional US$200 billion worth of goods and services over 2020 and 2021, relative to the level in 2017. [PIIE]

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, meanwhile, expressed dissatisfaction over China economic policies that harm the US, citing “billions of dollars” with which Beijing subsidizes industries such as agriculture, steel and semi-conductors, making it impossible for US companies to compete. Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., Tai added that “[i]t is increasingly clear that China’s plans do not include meaningful reforms to address the concerns that have been shared by the United States and many other countries.” [The Diplomat]

For a critical assessment of US China trade policies see Yukon Huang in [Carnegie Endowment] who calls them misguided by the assumption that “U.S. trade deficits […] were inherently bad and that China was to blame,” and suggests that “[i]f the United States wants to preserve its technological and moral authority, it must first deal with economic and political weaknesses at home. Bemoaning China’s unfair policies and its authoritarian regime will not solve this problem.”

Jean Pisani-Ferry in [Project Syndicate], meanwhile argues that China’s rise and the Sino-US rivalry has ended the post-World War II era in which “international economic relations were shaped for 70 years by their own rules,” and that the “the failure of convergence through economic integration,” has ushered the “geopolitical conquest of economics.”

China urges US to join talks on ban of weapons in outer space

(dql) China has called on the US join China and Russia for talks on banning weapons in outer space, urging Washington to stop being a “stumbling block” for negotiations on the “Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects” (PPWT) in the UN Conference on Disarmament. 

The call was made by Li Song, China’s ambassador for disarmament affairs at the 2021 Outer Space Security Conference of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) on Wednesday, September 29, and accompanied by sharp criticism. Accusing the US of aiming to “dominate outer space,” Li said: “After the end of the Cold War, and especially in the past two decades, the US has tried its best to get rid of its international obligations, refused to be bound by new treaties and long resisted multilateral negotiations on PAROS [the 1967 UN resolution on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space].” [Global Times]

In 2008, China and Russia first unveiled the “Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects”, but the move was rejected in Washington, which saw it as part of a coordinated effort to curb its ability to develop advanced space capabilities. [South China Morning Post]

The call comes after US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall recently warned that China has the potential “to actually put weapons in space,” and “the potential for global strikes from space.” [The Defense Post]

Meanwhile, the US Department of Defense has successfully fired the Hypersonic Air-Breathing Weapons Concept (HAWC) representing a breakthrough accomplishment in US efforts to fast-track, test, and ultimately deploy hypersonic weapons, aimed at catching up with Beijing and Moscow in the hypersonic arms race.  

The HAWC is a weapons program that is being developed and built under the partnership of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and Air Force, with industry support from both Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. [The National Interest]

China lobbies Mexico for joining CPTPP 

(dql) Widely seen as an attempt to rally support for its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke via video conference with his Mexican counterpart Marcelo Ebrard assuring him of China’s readiness to “work with all parties to make the CPTPP more representative and play a positive role in promoting trade and investment liberalization.” Ebrard is quoted by the Chinese Foreign Ministry as saying: “Mexico appreciates and welcomes China's application to join the CPTPP, and stands ready to communicate with China on this.” Mexio is among the 11 members of the CPTPP. [Foreign Ministry, China] [South China Morning Post]

For insights into the relationship between Mexico and China, see Martha Bárcena Coqui, former ambassador of Mexico to the US, in [Americas Quarterly] who calls it “complex” due to the country’s close economic ties to both China and the US and suggests that “[i]f Mexico can effectively navigate the showdown between the two superpowers, it will go a long way in shaping not only its own economic future, but also the future of the U.S.-China rivalry.” [East Asia Forum]

Belt and Road initiative: Countries across the globe owe China 385 billion USD

(dql) According to findings of researchers at the US-based research lab AidData, 165 countries are owing 385 billion USD to China for “Belt and road initiative” (BRI) projects, with China’s overseas lending having dramatically shifted from government-to-government loans during the pre-BRI era, to loans now going state-owned companies and banks, joint ventures, private institutions, and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) making up almost 70%.

The four-year study examined over 13,000 BRI projects in 165 countries between 2000 and 2017, worth more than 843 billion USD. [AIDDATA] [The Guardian]

Chinese Foreign Minister hits out against Aukus in talks with Malaysian and Brunei counterparts

(dql) In separate phone talks on September 29 with his counterparts from Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hit out against the Aukus pact between the US, the UK and Australia accusing the group of causing a nuclear proliferation risk and damaging regional prosperity and stability. [CGTN]

Two days earlier, on September 27, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe spoke with Malaysia's Senior Minister of Defence Hishammuddin Hussein via video call confirming China’s willingness to cooperate with Malaysia to oppose hegemonism and power politics, strengthen communication and properly address differences on the South China Sea, and jointly uphold peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. He called on the two militaries to maintain high-level communication, promote cooperation-mechanism building, strengthen multilateral coordination and continuously enhance practical cooperation. [ECNS]

Japan: TPP members discuss UK’s accession

(lnl) During a virtual meeting on Tuesday, September 28, the 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact (CPTPP) discussed the United Kingdom’s application to join the regional cooperation. London filed a request in February to join.

The meeting of the TPP’s working group was chaired by Japan, which succeeded Mexico in holding the rotating chair this year. If the UK bid is accepted, the country will be the first to join the original signatories. [Japan Today]

Earlier this month, China and Taiwan also filed their applications to accede to the free trade agreement [see No. 38, September/2021, 3, No. 39, September/2021, 4].

Japan condemns North Korean missile launch

(lnl) Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told a press conference on Thursday, September 30, that the North Korean missile launch earlier last week violated U.N. Security Council resolutions. Japan has lodged a protest against North Korea’s launch of a supersonic missile on September 28, calling it a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and condemning it as “extremely regrettable”. 

Meanwhile on Thursday, September 30, top North Korean envoys of Japan, the U.S. and South Korea held phone talks voicing concerns over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapon and missile development program. [The Mainichi] 

South Korea, Japan relations hoped to improve with new Japanese PM 

(aml/lnl) The election of Fumio Kishida as the new Japanese prime minister is hoped to better the relation between Japan and South Korea which have been at an all-time low over disputes concerning Japan’s colonization of South Korea from 1910-1945. 

Song Young-gil, chairman of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) congratulated Kishida on his victory and urged him to act more sensitively than the former government, referring to visits of the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Japanese war criminals. [AiR, No.33, August/2021, 3] [The Korea Herald 1]

Kishida has been Japan’s foreign minister from 2012-2017 and is known for reaching the 2015 agreement with South Korea over the wartime sexual slavery. This agreement has since then been under critique for not being made with full consent of the victims. However, the South Korean ministry said it will work together with Kishida and his new cabinet in a “future-oriented manner” to improve their bilateral relations. [The Korea Herald 2] [The Korea Times 1]

The South Korean trade minister Yeo Han-koo also vowed to seek a strengthened trade cooperation and to offer an open and transparent business environment in Korea. Trade relations between the two countries also had been strained after in July 2019, Japan established export controls on chemicals that are crucial to the South Korean chip industry. The controls had been the countries response to a 2018 South Korean Supreme Court ruling to compensate wartime forced labor victims. Both countries had thereupon removed each other from the “whitelist” of trusted trade partners. [The Korea Herald 3]

However, some experts fear that the election of Kishida won’t bring any change to the situation, especially after a South Korean court’s decision on September 27, ordering assets of Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to be seized and to be sold to compensate victims of World War II forced laborers. The Daejeon District Court ruled that two patents and two trademarks held by Mitsubishi Heavy should be sold to compensate two female Korean plaintiffs. [Yonhap News Agency]

This has prompted Japan to file a protest on Tuesday, September 28, calling the ruling a “clear violation of international law”.

Tokyo claims that the compensation issue has already been settled with the 1965 Treaty on Basic Relations, which included a reparation package of about 800 million dollars in grants and cheap loans to South Korean citizens. [Japan Today] [The Korea Times 2] 

Inter-Korean relations: Pyongyang’s hypersonic missile test followed by restoration of cross-border hotline

(dql) North Korea has reportedly conducted a test launch of a new hypersonic missile called Hwasong-8 on September 28. The Hwasong-8 was topped with a hypersonic gliding vehicle (HGV) warhead. [BBC]

The launch marked the country’s four missile test within September [see No. 39, September/2021, 4] and reflects its growing weapons industry in open defiance of international pressure and sanctions.

Days after the abovementioned missile test, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification confirmed that North and South Korea have restored their cross-border hotline and that officials of both sides held their first phone call since August. [CNN]

Inter-Korean communication line have been repeatedly cut off and restored, most prominently in June 2020 when Pyongyang blew up the two countries’ joint-liaison office in the town of Kaesong, close to the border with South Korea, and then unilaterally halted all official military and political communication links accusing Seoul of failing to properly deal with South Korean activists sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border [see AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4].

Cross-strait relations: Taiwan reports record Chinse warplane incursion

(zh) Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has reported a record number of Chinese warplanes since the island began publicly reporting the activities last September, with almost 150 Chinese aircraft having been sent into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in four consecutive days. Following the incursion by 38 jets on Friday, October 1, China’s National Day, the island spotted another 39 on Saturday and 56 on Monday. 

In a rebuke to Beijing, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has vowed to defend the country, warning “catastrophic consequences” for regional peace if it falls.  Premier Su Tseng-chang blamed Beijing for “damaging regional peace whine engaging in many bullying acts”. Calling China “the culprit for causing tensions”, while the island’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) demanded Beijing to “immediately stop its non-peaceful and irresponsible provocative action.” [BBC][Focus Taiwan 1][Hong Kong Free Press] [The Guardian 1] [The Guardian 2]

In response, China blamed Washington for being the provocateurs, warning that “engaging in Taiwan independence is a dead end”. China’s state-owned tabloid Global Times reported that the activities “clearly and unmistakably displayed China’s sovereignty over Taiwan,” claiming “the greater the number of combat planes gathering together, the more it shows that our military is forming a powerful wartime aerial assault force.” [New York Times]

The US state department, meanwhile, said it is “very concerned” by China’s “provocative action”, accusing Beijing of “destabilizing” regional peace and reiterate its “rock solid” commitment to Taiwan. In a separate development, in an online forum held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), US Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said her country has the capability of “tamping down” China’s potential invasion of Taiwan, adding the US is watching the situation “day to day”. [Focus Taiwan 2]

Regarding a potential war with China, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the island is preparing for conflict and vowed to “fight to the end”, warning China would also “suffer tremendously” in a conflict. Wu expressed support for the recent strategic partnership by Australia, the UK, and the US (AUKUS) for containing China, saying like-minded countries like Australia should come to the aid of Taiwan to better prepare for a war situation in Taiwan Strait. [ABC][Sydney Morning Herald]

Lithuania passed law to open representative office in Taiwan

(zh) Lithuania’s parliament passed a legal revision that allows it to set up a representative office in countries with which the country does not have formal diplomatic relations, which provides a legal basis for Vilnius to open an economic and trade office in Taiwan. 

In July, Taiwan and Lithuania had announced a plan to establish representative offices in Taipei and Vilnius, which provoked China and led to Beijing recalling its ambassadors and imposing economic sanctions against the Baltic country. [Focus Taiwan 1]

In another move to distance from China and seek closer ties with Taiwan, Lithuania’s lawmakers are planning a visit to Taiwan in December to confirm the strong relations between the two countries. Responding to the invitation by Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Chiu Chih-wei, Matas Maldeikis, the chairman of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Group for Relations with Taiwan said the visit "undoubtedly is useful to our respective countries, both economically and politically.” [Focus Taiwan 2] [Taiwan News]

For Lithuania’s ongoing overtures to Taiwan amid Beijing’s wolf warrior diplomacy, see the analysis by [The National Interest]. 

In separate development, during the virtually held “strategic dialogue” with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, the European Union (EU) top diplomat Josep Borrell has defended the plan to strengthen relations with Taiwan even “without any recognition of statehood”, adding, however, that the EU “will not conduct official exchanges” with the island. Reiterating the One-China principle, Wang warned the principle is the “political basis for China to develop relations with the EU and its member states”. While Borrell did not directly mention Lithuania, his remark is seen as unequivocal support for the Baltic country. [Reuters][South China Morning Post]

Taiwan expects to face political problem in joining CPTPP

(zh) Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the country will have to overcome “political problems” in its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). At a Central Standing Committee meeting of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Tsai said Taiwan has to work with “like-minded countries and current members” of the trade bloc as there are “indeed some political problems”. 

While Tsai has not openly mention China, the political problems refer to China’s expected obstruction against Taiwan’s membership in the CPTPP. 

Taiwan’s Minister of Economy Wang Mei-hua, similarly,  expressed the concern of Beijing obstructing Taiwan in joining the trade bloc if China joins it first, saying that, unlike China’s application, so far the Taiwanese government has yet heard of any member’s opposition after the island applied. Last month, Taiwan filed its application for joining CPTPP days after China announced it had submitted the application [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters]

In related news, the former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the government should not allow a fear of inflaming tensions with China to block the way of accepting Taiwan to join CPTPP, expressing his disposition as “strongly in favor of Taiwan entering the TPP. [The Guardian]

Taiwan to ease residence restrictions for people from Hong Kong and Macau

(zh) Taiwan has announced a plan to ease restrictions on residence permit extensions for people from Hong Kong and Macau and make it easier for students from the two territories to obtain permanent residency. The draft amendment to the Act Governing Relations with Hong Kong and Macau, announced by the Ministry of Interior, allows individuals from Hong Kong and Macau who are currently studying or working in Taiwan to extend their residence permits for up to one year for “necessary reasons”. Another planned change is to provide an easier path for people from Hong Kong and Macau who completed master’s and doctoral degrees in Taiwan to register permanent residence.

While President Tsai Ing-wen has been expressing her support for Hong Kong protesters, the city’s activists have complained that there are too many hurdles to move to Taiwan long-term. The proposal is a show of support for dissenters fleeing Hong Kong amid Beijing’s tightened control over the city. Ahead of ‘Double Ten’, Taiwan’s national day on October 10, Hong Kong’s Security Bureau had warned that attempts to separate Taiwan from China or commit secession might be “serious violations of the law”, referring to National Security Law. [Focus Taiwan][Hong Kong Free Press 1][Taiwan News] 

In related news, Hong Kong pro-democracy activists have staged a demonstration in Taiwan on October 1, China’s national day, with the theme “resist China” and “team up to back human rights”. Waving the flag of “Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of our times”, an eight-word slogan that had been banned in the city out of national security concern since July, the group of Hong Kong outlanders urged Taiwanese people to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic and called on the Taiwanese legislature to pen an annual report on the city’s human rights conditions. [Hong Kong Free Press 2]

Taiwan to take China fruit bans to WTO

(zh) Taiwan will take China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for a ruling on the import bans on three types of fruits from the island in mid-October, said the Council of Agriculture (COA). China has banned the imports of Taiwan’s pineapples in March and sugar and wax apples in September, citing biosafety concerns [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 4]. 

The COA has asked China to provide scientific evidence of those finds of “bugs” multiple times, but no reply has been received. [CNA, in Chinese] [Taiwan News]

Taiwan-US relations: Chipmaker TSMC won’t provide client info to US

(zh) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, said it won’t reveal any information to the United States government that would jeopardize its clients’ interests. During a semiconductor summit at the White House, the US government made a request for the chip supply chain to “voluntarily share information about inventories, demand, and delivery dynamics” to better understand the industry. While the request is voluntary, South Korean media have reported that the US could force the companies to disclose data if necessary.

In response to the reports, the National Development Council, TSMC’s largest shareholder, said TSMC will not reveal any confidential information on any specific clients. In a separate statement, the Ministry of Economy has said Taiwan respects and understands US commercial laws and regulations. But if Taiwan’s companies face “unreasonable demands”, the government will provide necessary assistance. [Focus Taiwan][Taiwan News 1][Taiwan News 2]

For more background information about TSMC, the $550 billion company controling more than half the global market for made-to-order chips, see [Time]. 

In a separate development, during a virtual event on the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals, Jeremy Cornforth, Deputy Director of American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US embassy, has reiterated US support for expanding Taiwan’s space for international participation, saying the tech heavyweight island was committed to using its technological prowess “for the common good”. Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu also told at the same event that Taiwan was an “indispensable” member of the global community, urging the UN to include the country into the system. Cornforth’s remark has echoed the call of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in last week’s UN General Assembly (UNGA), during which 12 out of 15 the country’s allies had voiced support for Taiwan’s inclusion [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]. [Taipei Times]

Taiwan-French relations: Senate delegation to visit Taiwan soon

(zh) Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has confirmed that a French Senate delegation would soon visit Taiwan. The delegation is to be led by Alain Richard, the former defense minister and current chairman of the French Senate’s Taiwan Friendship Group. The Ministry expressed praise for the delegation’s determination to forward the visit in the face of repeated verbal intimidation and obstruction from China. [Taipei Times][Taiwan News]

Beijing firmly opposed the visit. China’s state-backed tabloid [Global Times] has described France’s move as “silly” at a time when Paris had just been “stabbed in the back by the US with its AUKUS deal”, calling the European country not to “act as cannon fodder for the US” to maintain its strategic autonomy.

Pakistan in talks with Afghan Taliban to expand CPEC infrastructure scheme

(lm) Pakistan has discussed Taliban-led Afghanistan joining a China-backed multibillion-dollar infrastructure project, according to the Pakistani ambassador to Kabul, as Islamabad is seeking to re-establish itself as a strategic bridge in the region for the world’s great powers.

In an interview with Reuters, Pakistan’s envoy to Afghanistan, Mansoor Ahmad Khan, on September 27 said that representatives from Pakistan, China and Russia have recently held meetings with Taliban officials, with discussions focusing on security and economic development. [Reuters]

Significantly, the Pakistani representatives floated the idea of Afghanistan joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure project, the single largest project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing has invested $62 billion in CPEC, which forms the backbone of its presence in Pakistan and has come to symbolize the “all-weather friendship” between the two countries.

Moreover, Khan said that Pakistan was also trying to work with the international community to ease international restrictions on the banking system, adding that several executives from Pakistani financial institutions with a presence in Afghanistan had visited Kabul in recent days to see if the situation could be improved should international limits end. [South China Morning Post]

Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan on August 15, the country has been plunged into economic crisis as the nation's international assistance has been largely cut off. Nearly $9.5 billion in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank have also been frozen, which has put pressure on the banking system and prevented most transactions involving US dollars [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3].

The comments by the Pakistani envoy come after Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, alongside other high-ranking officials, earlier this month urged the international community to engage with and “incentivize” the Taliban before judging their record on human rights and governance, a line echoed by top military officials in Islamabad [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4].

The strategic calculus for Pakistan is that it would enjoy more influence and leverage in Kabul under Taliban rule, giving it a strong regional ally aligned with its Islamic values. However, many fear the strength of the Afghan Taliban’s resurgence will further embolden Pakistan’s leading Taliban group, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government for being insufficiently Islamist [see AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1].

Already, a significant deterioration of the security situation, especially in the tribal areas along Pakistan’s conflict-prone western border, has cast doubt on Islamabad’s assurances that across the border in Afghanistan the Taliban can keep local terrorist organizations like TTP and al-Qaeda from launching attacks on CPEC projects. When a long-delayed meeting on progress of the project took place earlier this month, the deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission – Beijing's top economic planner –used the session to call for "high-level" security guarantees [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4].

The question now is whether Islamabad’s strategic gambit to support the Afghan Taliban will pay off or backfire, returning Pakistan to the dark days when it struggled to contain a full-blown terrorist insurgency in its tribal border region. [The Financial Times]

The Taliban’s victory over the United States in Afghanistan will not only greatly embolden their fellow jihadists, but also shake up the region’s geopolitics. In particular, an Afghanistan-Pakistan-China axis involving policy coordination would represent a major risk for India.

In his op-ed for [Project Syndicate], India senior politician Shashi Tharoor paints a bleak picture of the new geopolitical reality New Delhi has to come to terms with: According to Tharoor, a potential Afghanistan-Pakistan-China axis involving policy coordination would represent “an unprecedented challenge for Indian diplomacy in the months and years ahead.”

India counters China’s influence with $700 million port deal in Sri Lanka

(egm/lm) Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group has signed a $700 million Build Operate Transfer (BOT) agreement with Sri Lanka’s largest listed company and the country’s state-owned Ports Authority (SLPA) to jointly develop the Colombo West International Container Terminal (CWICT), a move considered by officials a countermeasure by New Delhi against China’s rising influence in India’s backyard.

Earlier in March, Sri Lanka’s Cabinet had granted the Adani Group a 35-year operating concession to build and operate the CWICT, a third facility under the island nation’s South Harbor development program [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. The deal is widely considered a government-to-government balancing act after Sri Lanka in February had decided to undo a 2019 cooperation pact offering India and Japan the right to operate the long-stalled Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal (ETC), drawing strong protests from both New Delhi and Tokyo [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

As per the BOT agreement inked by the three parties on September 30, India’s Adani Group will hold a 51 percent controlling interest in the new terminal venture, with the remainder split between its local partner, John Keells (34 percent) and the SLPA (15 percent). According to the SLPA, the agreement constitutes Sri Lanka’s largest foreign investment in the country’s port sector. The first phase of its construction introducing a 600-metre terminal is expected to be completed within two years. [France24]

India has good reason to seek a foothold in Colombo Port as approximately 70 percent of the throughput at Colombo port is accounted for by Indian transshipment. But what is more, observers believe New Delhi’s assertive role in Sri Lanka to be part of larger efforts to regain strategic ground it has lost to China in its own backyard. [The Hindu]

For the CWICT is to be developed in close proximity to China’s terminal at the port, known as the Colombo International Container Terminals (CICT). Beijing, which had offered Colombo $500 million in order to run the CICT on BOT on 35-year lease, has acquired the terminal for an 85 percent stake. [Hellenic Shipping News]

Earlier in 2014, two Chinese Submarines allegedly anchored at the CICT for refueling, raising India and the United States concerns over the military advantage exerted by Beijing’s growing foothold in the Indian Ocean. This occurred the same year as Colombo announced the suspension of its East Container Terminal (ECT) project with India and Japan to instead implement the construction of a multi-billion-Port City project in collaboration with a subsidiary of the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. 

Despite Sri Lanka’s refusal to allow more Chinese submarines to be stationed in the area, the country has been unable to avoid China’s presence in its port: Unable to repay a significant Chinese loan, in 2016 the island nation signed a $1.12 billion deal with Beijing, allowing a Chinese state company to take over the port in Hambantota, which straddles the world’s busiest east-west shipping route, on a 99-year lease [see AiR December/2017, 3]. Such moves have only increased the fears of China’s use of “debt traps” to exert its influence abroad [see also AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4].

Pakistan says EU resolution on Taliban-led Afghanistan requires ‘further improvements’

(lm) Pakistan wants the European Union (EU) to revise its plan to step up human rights monitoring under the new Taliban leadership in Afghanistan, in part by taking into account socio-economic concerns in a country hoping to emerge from decades of war and instability.

The EU is leading an effort backed by more than 40 countries at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) to pass a resolution next week that would, among other things, name a special rapporteur on Afghanistan to help the country prevent a roll back of human rights gained over the last two decades and offer support to advocacy groups — much of whose work has been disrupted under the new Taliban leadership. [The Washington Post]

Importantly, the European bloc want consensus for the resolution at the UN’s top human rights body, which counts Pakistan among its 47 member countries. But Islamabad – arguably the Taliban’s closest state interlocutor – on September 30 said “further improvements” to the resolution were needed, including concrete pledges of assistance for Afghanistan, without using human rights as the sole criteria. [South China Morning Post]

Earlier in August, at an UNHRC emergency session held to address concerns about serious human rights violations in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, Pakistan and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation led a unanimous resolution, which made no provision for an international fact-finding mechanism and investigate human rights abuses. Instead, it urged all parties to respect human rights law including "the full and meaningful participation of women" and of minorities. It also requested further reports and an update by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet in March 2022.

Earlier this month then, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, alongside other high-ranking officials, urged the international community to engage with and “incentivize” the Taliban before judging their record on human rights and governance, a line echoed by top military officials in Islamabad [see AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4].

India matches China’s troop build-up at disputed Himalayan border, army chief says

(lm) China is sending troops to its disputed Himalayan border with India in “considerable numbers”, prompting a matching deployment by New Delhi in a development India’s Chief of the Army Staff, General MM Naravane, has called a “concern”. Each side currently has around 50,000 to 60,000 troops along the sensitive Line of Actual Control (LAC). [South China Morning Post]

Citing surveillance and intelligence reports, recent reports by Indian media outlets suggest that China has built new modular container-based accommodations for its soldiers at least eight forward locations along the LAC. Beijing has constructed many such shelters since border tensions escalated in 2020, most notably in close proximity to the Siliguri corridor, a narrow strip of land that connects India’s north-eastern states with the rest of the country [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1].

In addition to constructing the new military installations, China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA) also reportedly deployed two batteries of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system to its airbases in Hotan and Nyingchi, in addition to several other anti-aircraft systems. [Firstpost]

For its part, the Indian Army has deployed the first K9-Vajra self-propelled howitzer regiment in the Ladakh sector along the LAC. [Hindustan Times] [The Economic Times]

Against this backdrop, speaking to reporters in Ladakh on October 2, General MM Naravan said that the 13th round of Corps Commander-level talks between the two countries could take place in the second week of October. [The Indian Express 1]

The last round of talks took place on July 31, after which troops from both sides had stepped back from Patrolling Point 17A – Gogra Post – going back to their traditional bases and creating a temporary no-patrolling zone [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]. But China is yet to show inclination to withdraw from other newly occupied areas, namely Patrolling Point 15 at Hot Springs, and the Depsang Plains in eastern Ladakh, both of which did not feature in the piecemeal disengagement process [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2].

The comments of the Indian general came days after Beijing accused Indian soldiers of illegally crossing the border into Chinese territory, a charge that New Delhi said had “no basis in facts”. Before, citing unnamed sources, Indian media reported last week that nearly 100 Chinese troops had transgressed the LAC in the state of Uttarakhand for several hours in late August. [The Indian Express 2] [The Diplomat]

In related developments, India has completed work a 6.5-kilometre tunnel – the first of four – drilled through the Himalayas to connect the Indian-administered portion of Kashmir with the country’s northern Ladakh region, a move that experts say will provide logistical flexibility to India’s military. [ABC News]

More importantly even, the deadline for the fulfilment of a related tunnel, which had earlier been set for 2026, has been moved up by nearly three years to 2023. Upon completion, the “all-weather connectivity” Zojila tunnel will be Asia’s longest bidirectional tunnel, according to the Indian government. [The Quint]

Indian Foreign Secretary concludes four-day visit to Sri Lanka

(egm) India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla on October 5 concluded a four-day official visit to Sri Lanka, a trip coming hot on the heels of Indian conglomerate Adani Group signing a deal to develop the Colombo West International Container Terminal (CWICT). [see entry in this edition]

As indicated by official sources, the visit of the high-ranking Indian official was mainly concerned with the discussion on the assessment of ongoing bilateral projects, India’s assistance to the island nation and its expectations for Sri Lanka’s progress in matters of accountability and minority rights. [DailyMirror][The Hindu]

The visit’s announcement follows a prior meeting between Sri Lankan External Affairs Minister G.L Peiris and his Indian counterpart Minister S. Jaishankar on the sidelines of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. During the meeting on September 23, the two foreign ministers discussed the government’s actions to resolve matters of transparency and accountability following the end of the nation’s civil war in relation to the demands expressed by Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority. 

During a previous visit in January, Foreign Minister Jaishankar highlighted the need for Sri Lanka to fulfil the demands expressed by the Tamil people. In the same statement he further recognized the accusations of Tamil and Muslim minorities regarding the continuous harassment perpetrated by authorities, particularly those in relation to restrictions to memorialization and threats of land grabs [see also AiR No. 39, September/2021, 4]. 

Furthermore, while the settlement of the ethnic issues related to the aftermath of the civil war remains a point of concern for both countries, the foreign minister has also pointed out India’s need for the speedy implementation of several pending projects in Sri Lanka in order to increase New Delhi’s confidence in enhancing its ties with the country. 

Mr. Jaishankar’s statements echo New Delhi’s concerns over the increased influence of China over Sri Lanka’s economy and infrastructure as India’s projects in the island nation begin to show a “slow pace”.

UN Human Rights Council flags rampant intimidation, reprisal and detention of activists in 45 countries

(egm/lm) Allegations of intimidation and reprisal were documented against some 240 civil society members, activists and journalists, across 45 countries within the first four months of this year, because they cooperated, or attempted to cooperate, with the United Nations (UN). [OHCHR]

Presenting the UN Secretary General’s annual report on the matter to the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) on September 29, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Ilze Brands Kehris, highlighted four main trends.

First, in close to half of the 45 countries, allegations of monitoring and surveillance, both online and offline, of individuals and groups, were made. Numerous cases include hacking of accounts, travel bans and other movement restrictions.

Second, several UN actors have addressed repeated or similar allegations of intimidation and reprisals to those raised in this and earlier reports. Brands Kehris highlighted signs of a possible pattern in several countries including China, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, where serious issues with the detention of victims of reprisals and intimidation have been identified, as well as India, Israel, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Venezuela.

Third, she highlighted restrictive legislation, usually on grounds of national security, including counter-terrorism measures, or based on laws governing activities of civil society organizations.

Fourth, and lastly, she described “increasingly challenging, or even at times repressive, environments for victims, human rights defenders, journalists and other civil society actors.”

British envoy raises concern over high profile human rights cases with Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Peiris

(egm) The High Commissioner of the United Kingdom to Colombo, Sarah Hulton, has raised concerns over certain high-profile cases while meeting with Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris on September 28. [Colombo Gazette] [Economy Next]

One of the major issues in this respect were Sri Lanka’s recent initiatives undertaken to develop domestic reconciliation measures such as the work of institutions managing national unity and reconciliation, progress in the area of missing persons, accountability and repatriations. Although no further details were provided into the high-profile cases addressed by High Commissioner Hulton, there is a good case to believe that they were adverted to in the context of Colombo’s ongoing engagement with the United Nations Human Rights Council [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3].

Furthermore, while moving on to the topic of economic ties, Minister Peiris and High Commissioner Hulton explored further trade and investment opportunities for British businesses in Sri Lanka with a particular focus in the China-backed Port City development. In this respect, the enhancement of intra-Commonwealth trade, economic cooperation and Sri Lanka’s support of environmental initiatives through participation in the upcoming Climate Change Conference (COP26) were also discussed.

Peiris’s meeting with the British envoy on a previous engagement with Lord Tariq Ahmad, London’s Minister of State for South Asia, on the sidelines of the recently concluded 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Both meetings come against the larger backdrop of a visit to Sri Lanka by a five-member of the European Union to review the country’s possible withdrawal from the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) trade concession in light of ongoing human rights violations. [see entry in this edition]

Cambodia: U.S. to propose Cambodia Democracy Act of 2021

(nd) On September 29, the bipartisan Cambodia Democracy Act of 2021 was tabled in the US Congress. If signed into law, the bill would bar senior Cambodian officials deemed responsible by the U.S. president for having “directly and substantially undermined democracy in Cambodia” from entering the country. Additionally, it would also bar financial transaction and freeze assets held in the U.S. by targeted officials. Sanctions within the bill would go into effect 180 days past its signing.

According to congressmen supporting the bill, Cambodian President Hun Sen continued to leave unfulfilled promises made in the 1991 Paris Peace Accords, and tightens his grip on civil society by blocking the media and opposition. The Paris Peace Accords are an agreement ending the war with Vietnam and ousting the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

Mu Sochua, the Vice President of the banned opposition party Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), welcomed the move but hoped Hun Sen would reconsider his actions before the bill is signed into law. 

The Cambodian government, however, criticized the bill, calling it unjust and discriminating. Referring to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s visit to Cambodia in June this year [see also AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2], a government spokesman doubted the bill to be signed into law. Sherman, however, urged the government during her visit to drop “politically motivated” court cases against its critics, and expressed concern over the Cambodian President’s crackdown on civil society.

In December 2020, the European Union adopted a global human rights sanctions regime, allowing for travel bans and asset freezing against legal and natural persons involved in serious human rights violations. This action marked the first time the EU put in place mechanisms to target international actors, which is based on the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, a U.S. law named after a Russian corruption whistleblower who died in prison. Following the arrest of CNRP President Kem Sokha and the party’s dissolution by the Supreme Court in 2017, the EU had stripped Cambodia of its preferential trade terms. [Radio Free Asia]

Ongoing Chinese incursions in the South China Sea

(nd) After staying for almost a month, a Chinese survey vessel left Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Another Chinese survey vessel, however, is currently located in an area which runs through the EEZs of Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. None of the involved countries has made any public comment about the vessel yet.

According to analysts, Malaysia does track all the vessels in its EEZ but has so far resorted to “quiet diplomacy” with respect to Chinese maritime incursions. A similar approach underlies Indonesia’s approach, which has not been vocal about the latest intrusion, both due to economic reliance on China and their own limited maritime capabilities. On October 4, however, Malaysia summoned China’s ambassador calling the presence of Chinese vessels off the coasts of Sabah and Sarawak states an encroachment. Earlier, newly-elected Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob commented that Malaysia will not compromise with any country if there is a threat in the South China Sea.

The Indonesian government announced a budget proposal for 2022, which attributes 12.2 trillion rupiah, or $853 million, to developing the security infrastructure in the Natuna Sea. The budget would be split between the Indonesian Navy and the Maritime Security Force. 

The Philippine foreign secretary in turn ordered that new diplomatic protests shall be filed against the ongoing presence of over 100 Chinese vessels in its EEZ in Scarborough Shoal. In a standoff for the shoal in 2012 after which China did not leave as agreed, the Philippines filed a case with the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which in 2016 ruled in its favor. China never recognized the ruling but claims almost the entire South China Sea for itself. [Benar News] [Bloomberg] [Radio Free Asia]

Philippines: China tried to prevent MDT revision, says Defense Secretary

(nd) Filipino Defense Secretary said that a Chinese ambassador opposed the revision of the Philippines’ Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the US. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenza voiced his review demand in 2018 for the first time, and was approached by a former Chinese ambassador, who then was Zhao Jianhua.

The US reportedly welcomed the idea of a revision, which could allow the treaty to become more responsive to current security issues, like the Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Lorenza had renewed his call on a recent trip to the US, saying the treaty “has been beneficial to the Philippines, but not enough to make it stand on its own feet.” Ever since its first implementation, security challenges changed significantly, citing terrorism, illegal drugs, transnational crimes and exploitation of resources aside from the territorial dispute. The contract was signed in 1951 and provides mutual aid in the event of an attack and the improvement of defense capabilities of the Philippines. [Manila Bulletin] [Rappler]

Vietnam: British frigate stops in Vietnam

(tl) The British Royal Navy frigate HMS Richmond has arrived in Vietnam on a four-day visit after transiting through the Taiwan Strait. China immediately condemned the ship's passage through the Taiwan Strait, describing the British presence in the territory as "a meaningless display of presence with an insidious intention." In an unusual move, HMS Richmond broadcasted its position as it was transiting the strait, signaling its presence to Beijing and thus allowing China to send military units to monitor the passage. British intentions have been read as an attempt to assert freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait by reaffirming its status in international waters. For its part, in an official statement, the British Embassy in Hanoi declared that “the ship's presence underlines the U.K.'s commitment to the Indo-Pacific”. 

In an effort to not jeopardize relations with China, the British passage was not covered in Vietnam’s media. Still, increasing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea has urged Vietnam to seek to expand its military and strategic relations with Western countries, showcased by the increasing meetings between the country's leaders and representatives of European and the US.

Vietnam: Hanoi hosts tri-party meeting with Cambodia and Laos

(tl) Nguyen Phu Trong, chief of the Vietnamese Communist Party, held tripartite talks with General Secretary of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party Thongloun Sisoulith and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Upon arrival in the country, Hun Sen and Thongloun met with Vietnamese State President Nguyen Xuan Phuc. During the meeting, the topics covered ranged from economic recovery, over the fight against the pandemic to the issue of circular migration between the three countries, which is the main cause of imported Covid-19 cases.

Vietnam helped both currently ruling parties to assume power and supported them before they opened up to the world economy during the 1990s. The ruling Cambodian People’s Party came to power in 1979 after several Khmer Rouge defectors, including Hun Sen, returned with the support of the Vietnamese military to overthrow the regime. Vietnam’s Communist Party was also the main benefactor of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP), which it helped take power in 1975 after decades of civil war in the landlocked state.

The government of Vietnam was the third largest investor in Laos between 2016 and 2020, with an increase in investment capital of 130% year-on-year in 2020 alone. Vietnam also remains a very important investor in Cambodia, with an economic exchange of $6 billion in the first seven months of 2021 alone, which more than doubled from the previous period.

According to analysts, the three countries are important to one another, especially with respect to economic cooperation. As noted by Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, it is important for Vietnam to maintain its influence on Cambodia and Laos in light of Beijing’s efforts to expand its strategic influence over these two countries to the detriment of Vietnam. According to international analysts, Vietnam risks significantly losing its authority with its neighbors, given China's enormous interest in Cambodia and Laos in recent decades. Indeed, China has increasingly challenged Vietnam's dominance in Cambodia and Laos, primarily by leveraging Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects to boost its influence in the region. 

As for Cambodia, Hun Sen's government, after being embargoed during the 1980s by countries such as the US, other ASEAN members and China, seems to have found a new friendship with Beijing in recent years. Hun Sen was not only the first foreign leader to meet Xi Jinping during the pandemic but, in less than a year, managed to sign a new free trade agreement between the two countries, establishing China as the main trading partner to his country. Cambodia is also an active participant in BRI projects with a volume of at least $5.3 billion, and Phnom Penh is benefitting in the form of infrastructure projects including roads, bridges, airports, railways, hydropower dams, and special economic zones (SEZs).

In light of that, Hanoi knows very well that it cannot count on relational privilege with its neighbor for much longer, which also carries implications on joint decisions on national security. With Cambodia assuming the annually rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc in 2022, there are also concerns that Phnom Penh could use this position to advance Beijing's interests against Hanoi. Indeed, China has every intention of using Cambodia's presidency, especially on the issue of the South China Sea, and the government in Phnom Penh seems to be getting closer to Beijing in this respect.

For what concerns Laos, China has been the largest investor since 2010, with a total of 16 billion invested since 1989. Most of the dams and hydropower plants in the country have been built by Beijing, which over the years has brought the country's northern provinces under its economic control. Moreover, in mid-September, a Chinese state-owned firm assumed majority control of Laos' electrical grid. Given the enormous debt incurred in recent years to China, there are concerns that Vientiane is willing to pay down Chinese debts using land transfers. [Asia Times] [RAND] [Limes in Italian]

Vietnam: President received Ambassadors of Uruguay, Finland and Austria

(tl) The Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc received the ambassadors on a formal meeting to improve their strategic partnership.

Firstly, the President met the Uruguay Ambassador Raul Juan Pollak Giampietro, with whom he reiterated the necessity for better access to each market and favorable conditions for the two countries to access the South America Common Market and the ASEAN market. Also, he added that Vietnam will open his embassy in Montevideo very soon.

In the conversation with Finnish Ambassador Keijo Ensio Norvant, Nguyen pointed out the willingness to have better economic relations with the countries of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and the yellow card on the country’s fish products to be removed. The card is a measure to reduce the economic relations between the European Union and all those countries that do not respect certain standards on their products.

Receiving Austrian Ambassador Hans-Peter Glanzer, the President called for close cooperation at the 10th session of the Vietnam-Austria Joint Governmental Committee. He asked for the Ambassador’s consultation in vaccine access for Vietnam and the supplies of medical equipment and medicines in the fight against COVID-19.  [The Voice of Vietnam]

Vietnam: Prime Minister meets UK Ambassador to improve their partnership 

(tl) Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh received UK Ambassador to Vietnam Gareth Ward in an official reception to talk about their economic and political relations. The meeting focused on measures to counter the global pandemic, improve bilateral trade and security in the South China Sea. 

The Prime Minister exhorted the UK to continue with the supply of vaccines, medical supplies, vaccine production technology transfer, and COVID-19 treatment medicines, highlighting the necessity for the country to be self-reliant in vaccine production. The Ambassador said the UK will deliver more vaccine to Vietnam through the COVAX facility and provide Vietnam with medical equipment. 

Ward added that UK considers Vietnam an important partner in the South-East Asia, underlining that many large UK companies are interest to invest. For Ward, the main sector of cooperation with the British companies must be promoting clean energy and access green finance to develop renewable energy projects. Also, Ward stressed the willingness to guarantee peace and security in the South China Sea, promoting free navigation in the disputed waterway based on international law. Despite Chinese protest, the UK has already sent warship to the South China Sea. [The Voice of Vietnam] [Wionews]

Vietnam: 200 fishermen repatriated from Indonesia’s detention center

(tl) 200 Vietnamese fishermen were repatriated last week from Indonesia after spending months in a detention center on charges of poaching in Indonesian waters. Another 216 fishermen from Vietnam will be sent home in October, according to a senior official at Indonesia’s Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries.

Since the begin of the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 500 Vietnamese fishermen have been detained in Indonesia on charges of poaching. Some of them spent more than a year in detention centers run by the fisheries ministry and immigration authorities across the archipelago. In justification of the unusually long detention times, Indonesian government officials blamed the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, also pointing out that the Vietnamese government had done nothing to speed up repatriation.

Meanwhile, around 30 fishermen are still stranded at a detention center in Tanjung Pinang in Riau Islands province. Many of the repatriated fishermen reported that the life conditions in the detention centers were terrible, with a lack of food and the absence of decent living standards, which was portrayed in a video made by detainees in December 2020. [Radio Free Asia]

Singapore’s Foreign Minister wrapped up his visit to the US

(py) At the end of his four-day visit to Washington, Singapore’s Foreign Minister urged the world leaders to consider Southeast Asia as an independent region rather than an arena for great power competition. This way, he claimed, possibilities for future development and global cooperation amidst climate change, pandemic and digital revolution would be wasted. Moreover, he commented that although the US is the largest investor in Southeast Asia, Washington still has a minimal role in designing the region’s economic architecture. To enhance that, he referred to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and bilateral green agreements. [Channel News Asia

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

6 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT-8), Hoover Institution, USA

Pakistan: U.S. Serial Gullibility and the Epicenter of Jihadist Terrorism

This webinar will discuss Pakistani foreign policy, jihadist terrorism, and the future of South Asia in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Visit [Hoover] for more details.

6 October 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Reviewing the First Six Months of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh

On 5 April 2021, Pham Minh Chinh was elected Vietnam’s eighth prime minister. This webinar reviews his performance over the past six months, with a focus put on how his government has dealt with the ongoing fourth wave of COVID-19 infections and its consequences. It will also discuss Vietnam’s political and economic prospects in the next twelve months and beyond.

For more details, visit [ISEAS].

6 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA

Examining AUKUS and the future of the Indo-Pacific

The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia recently concluded agreement on the export of nuclear submarines to increase the capabilities of the Royal Australian Navy. The agreement is viewed by many as an effort to contain China and bolster the broader American-led effort to deepen alliance capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. This webinar will discuss the agreement, its implications for the tripartite AUKUS alliance, and the future of the Indo-Pacific region. 

Find more about the event at [FPRI].

6 October 2021 @ 1:30-3:00 p.m. (GMT+3), Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland

Arctic Connectivity: Security Challenges and Economic Opportunities

While geoeconomic competition is gathering speed, and environmental and human-rights concerns are on the rise in the Arctic, (hard) security issues have also returned to the discussions on the region. Is the Arctic destined to become a battleground for geostrategic competition, or can connectivity and economic geography also drive forward integration and cooperation to the benefit of major powers and the Nordic-Baltic countries alike? Find answers to these question at this webinar.

Learn more about the event at [FIIA].

6 October 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+2), European Council of Foreign Relations, Germany

Thinking Big With: The Age of Unpeace

With particular reference to the book “The Age of Unpeac” by Mark Leonard, this webinar will discuss globalisation being turned into a weapon and explore the following questions: How has connectivity fragmented our societies, politics and made people focus more on what divided them rather than what they hold in common? Why does interdependence make conflict cheaper and more likely in international relations?

For more information, visit [ECFR].

6 October 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Wilson Center, USA

Rethinking Humanitarian Aid

The world faces terrible suffering brought on by natural and man-made disasters, and humanitarian aid plays a critical role in saving lives and preserving stability. Nevertheless, like any investment or aid program, this assistance is not without its pitfalls and blind spots. This webinar gather experts and practitioners to explore some of the challenges facing the humanitarian-aid community, and potential measures to ensure aid is more effective for its beneficiaries.

More details about the event are provided at [Wilson Center].

6 October 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), The Atlantic Council, USA

Pakistan faces economic challenges: A conversation with Princeton economist Professor Atif Mian and Shuja Nawaz

Prime Minister Imran Khan is facing an uphill battle on Pakistan’s economy under the double pressures of COVID-19 and the strict demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At this online conversation, Atif Mian, Professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University will assess the current situation and suggest ways to navigate it in the short-term, while identifying longer-term paths toward stability and growth

Find more about the event at [The Atlantic Council].

6 October 2021 @ 12:00 a.m. (GMT-4), The Heritage Foundation, USA

The Next Missile Defense Review: Policies to Make America Safer

The Biden Administration is immersed in its Missile Defense Review, which will outline the policies, capabilities, and strategies the Defense Department will pursue to address increasingly complex missile threats from around the world. This online expert panel discuss what an ideal Missile Defense Review should entail, and what expected from the Biden Administration.

If you want to attend this event, you can register at [Heritage].

6 October 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+2), European Centre for International Political Economy, Belgium

After the End of History: What Comes Next?

Few books have had such an influence as Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man from 1992: it profoundly shaped the way that many people in the West thought about the period that would follow the collapse of communism. But how should we think about current developments in the world – now that liberal triumphalism is buried, and the norms of liberal democracy are being challenged both at home and abroad? This webinar will address these questions.

Find more about the event at [ECIPE].

6 October 2021 @ 5:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Asia Society, USA

Understanding Evergrande: Implications for Chinese and Global Economy

This webinar will explore critical questions related to the ongoing Evergrande crisis in China including: what do recent events underline about the systemic financial risks present in China’s economy? To what extent is Evergrande’s situation an indicator of China’s longstanding struggle to combat rising debt? And how does Evergrande fit into the broader slowing of the Chinese property market and regulatory pressure from Beijing?

Learn more about the webinar at [Asia Society].

6 October 2021 @ 4:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Royal United Services Institute, UK

Curbing Enablers: A Transatlantic Response to Illicit Finance

This webinar will explore how the UK and the US can make a step-change in combatting these facilitators of illicit finance who remain subjects of far less scrutiny than necessary, given the threat they present.

Visit [RUSI] for more information.

6 October 2021 @ 4:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland

Use of Force by Private Security Providers: What Regulatory Approaches for States?

The use of force by private security providers is one of the key challenges in private security regulation, given the security and human rights risks it entails. At the webinar expert practitioners will their respective perspectives on the use of force by private security providers and how States can adequately regulate it.

More details of the event are accessible via [DCAF].

6 October 2021 @ 6:30 p.m. (GMT+2), Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, Spain

Bridging the Green and Digital Agendas in Cities to Drive more Ambitious and Inclusive Transitions

This online workshop will explore how cities can act as laboratories for integrating and accelerating environmental and digital agendas in coherent policy frameworks, and in ways that are truly sustainable and just.

Visit [CIDOB] for further information.

6 October 2021 @ 1:00 p.m. (GMT+5.30), Centre for Law Warfare Studies, India

Securing Data in the 21st Century: Role of the NCSC in Countering Emerging Threats

This online lecture will be given by Hans de Vries Director National Cyber ​​Security Center at Ministry of Security and Justice, The Netherlands.

For further information, see [CLAWS].

6 October 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

Truth to Power - The Delicate Dance Between Intelligence Providers and Policy Consumers

This online talk will offer insights into the nexus between intelligence and policy, with a focus on the following questions: How do agencies deliver bad news? What is intelligence politicization and how do agencies prevent it?  How can intelligence both be used and acted upon, while still protecting fragile sources and methods? Should intelligence engage more transparently with the public, or is too much already revealed by a relentless press?

More information is available at [Belfer Center].

6 October 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2021

At this webinar, the International Energy Outlook 2021 of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on long-term projections of world energy supply and demand by region will be presented and discussed. 

For further event details, see [CSIS].

6 October 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Beyond 5G: Standards for Sixth Generation Networks

This online seminar will discuss the development and implementation of standards of global sixth generation network which is already in an exploratory research phase and projected to bring faster speeds, lower latency, and more networks utilizing Internet of Things (IoT) technologies.

Visit [CSIS] to learn more about the event.

6 October 2021, 10:30-11:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

MEI Defense Leadership Series: Episode 14 with Dr. Mara Karlin

At this online conversation, Mara Karlin, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities, will provide insights into the Biden administration's approach to national security and regional security affairs in the Middle East and North Africa.

If you want to know more about the event, see [MEI].

6 October 2021, 9:00-10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: A Book Talk with Alex Vatanka

At this online event, Alex Vatanka’s latest book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979 will be introduced and discussed.

Further information can be accessed via [MEI].

6 October 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), The Atlantic Council, USA

The US-Italian defense relationship: A strategic and industrial partnership

The webinar will discuss the US-Italian defense relationship and assess the contributions of this partnership to US and NATO security.

Learn more about the event at [The Atlantic Council].

6 October 2021 @noon (GMT-8), World Affairs, United States

Is it Xi or is it China?

When looking at China, experts ask whether is purely party leader Xi Jinping to blame or is it part of the system built by the communist party?

To answer this question and the implications for US policies, Washington Post correspondent John Pomfret will be interviewed in this online conversation. 

Find more about event details at [World Affairs]

6 October 2021 @ 10 a.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, United States

Regional Effects of the Taliban Takeover

Following the fall of Kabul in August 2021, this event discussed the repercussions for South Asia, considering the regional geopolitical consequences and security impacts.

Find more about event details at [Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies]

6 October 2021 @ 5 p.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, United States

Engaging China: Fifty Years of Sino-American Relations

This event will discuss the publication Engaging China: Fifty Years of Sino-American Relations, taking a conversational tour through the past, present and future.

Find more about event details at [Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies]

7 October 2021 @ 11.30 a.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, United States

Political Selection in the Secular-Islamist Divide

How are politicians selected in the countries of Middle East and North Africa where electoral politics is to a large extent dominated by secular-Islamist competition?

This event will discuss a paper, which describes the political selection processes around the first democratic local elections in Tunisia. 

Find more about event details at [Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies]

7 October 2021 @ 12.15 p.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, United States

Controlling the Narrative: The Coordination & Disciplining Role of the People's Daily in China with Joseph Piotroski

This online event will explain political and market-based incentives of corporate news reporting in China, and from there, how the party’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily is used by Chinese politicians.

Find more about event details at [Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies]

7 October 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Why did the Afghan Army Evaporate?

Why did the USA so peremptorily abandon its allies of the past twenty years? To what extent was the defeat due to the Taliban; due to internal politics; or as a result of international abandonment? Will a Taliban Government be a disaster for Afghanistan and the West? What can we learn from all this? Find answers to these question at this webinar.

Visit [binar] for further information.

7 October 2021 @ 7: 12:00-12:45 p.m. (GMT-5), The Chicago Council on Globa Affairs, USA

China’s Technology Competition

Against the backdrop of China’s accelerated efforts towards technological dominance, the online expert panel will assess how the United States should position itself for economic, military, and political success.

If you want to join the event, you can register at [The Chicago Council].

7 October 2021 @ 10:00-11:35 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Climate Action by Japan and Implications for Southeast Asia

As part of its Asia Energy Transition Initiative, Japan pledged US$10 billion in public and private financial support for energy transition efforts in ASEAN, as well as for human resources development, knowledge sharing activities and technology development. This webinar will discuss Japan’s policies and interests in advancing decarbonization efforts in Southeast Asia, as well as identify opportunities for greater engagement.

For more details, visit [ISEAS].

7 October 2021 @ 1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

The Future of Palestine - A Conversation with Dr. Hanan Ashrawi

In this online conversation, Dr. Hanan Ashrawi, the first woman to be elected to the highest decision-making body of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its official spokesperson until 2020, will discuss the future of Palestine, including the current challenges in negotiating an end to the conflict.

For more details, visit [Belfer Center].

7 October 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

A Deeper Look at Iranian Cyber Operations

The increasing tempo of offensive cyber operations by Iran and its adversaries, including the US and Israel, has led observes and analysts to label them as “tit-for-tat”: a cyclical action-reaction dynamic where each side seeks to respond appropriately to an earlier violation by the other. This webinar will explore why this interpretation has significant theoretical and empirical deficiencies, as well as why does the tit-for-tat narrative still dominate our understanding of Iranian cyber activity.

You can find more about the event at [Belfer Center].

7 October 2021 @ 10:00 p.m. (GMT+2), European Centre for International Political Economy, Belgium

China’s Economic Policy and its Consequences for Europe

China’s Fourteenth Five-year Plan talks about a new model of ‘dual circulation’, meaning that the country will reduce its reliance on foreign markets. But are inward-looking policies economically viable for China – a country that has prospered greatly on the back of structural economic reforms that gradually opened the country up to foreign competition? What is China trying to achieve with policies that seem to encourage self-sufficiency? And what are the consequences for Europe and European businesses that have invested in China’s economic future? Find answers to these questions at this webinar.

If you are interested in joining the event, register at [ECIPE].

7 October 2021 @ 2:30-4:00 p.m. (GMT+3), Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland

Economy and security: Bringing Europeans together?

While the EU is about to exit the Covid crisis, it finds itself in an economic and strategic landscape that is very different from two years ago, with EU economic and defense policies being two of the most important topics the Union will have to address in the coming months, especially under the French EU Presidency which will begin on 1st January 2022.  How can the 27 member states reconcile their different approaches and make the EU fit for challenges ahead? This online panel will discuss this question. 

Learn more about the event at [FIIA].

7 October 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), The Dialogue, USA

Debating the Facebook Oversight Board and Self-Regulation Mechanisms

The Facebook Oversight Board (FOB), established in 2020, acts as a self-regulation mechanism for the platform and also provides a channel for appeal in response to complex or controversial content moderation decisions carried out by Facebook. The webinar will examine this novel tool and its impact on freedom of expression in Latin America.

Visit [The Dialogue] for further details.

7 October 2021 @ 11:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Chinese State Capitalism: Diagnosis and Prognosis

Over forty years after the begin of economic reforms, the precise nature of the country’s economy and the political orientation of the institutions that govern it remain subject to debate. A CSIS report containing analyses and perspectives of world-leading experts on China’s political and economic system will be presented and discussed at this webinar. 

You can find more about the event at [CSIS].

7 October 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Book Event: Lawrence O. Gostin’s “Global Health Security: A Blueprint for the Future”

This online book event will present “Global Health Security: A Blueprint for the Future” by Lawrence O. Gostin, University Professor and Director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown Law. 

For more information, visit [CSIS].

7-8 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT+2), German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany

Post-Olympics Japan: Renewal or Failure?

Two months after the Olympic Games 2021, this two-day online workshop will explore the impact of the Games and the gap between original aspirations and concrete results. The sessions will address the following topics: the political economy of Olympics, political communication, historic perspectives, diversity, social movements and voluntarism, technology and innovation, mass media and public discourse. 

For more information, see [GIGA].

8 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT+2), Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, Spain

Living in the “area of vital interest” for Russia

It has been 30 years since Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia - the six European countries of the former Soviet Union - have become independent, at least formally. But the full exercise of their sovereignty is still undermined by Moscow’s actions. The trouble is that these states also make up the strip of European territory considered by Russia as its lifeline, its sphere of “vital interest”; a grey zone where Kremlin’s narrative blurs the line between foreign and domestic policy.  As for the European Union, due to different political and economic interests, it has too often allowed its policy towards its post-Soviet European neighbors to be guided by the concern of “do not upset Russia”. But experience shows that this caution approach has led to an impasse in the relations between the EU and Russia. 

Against this backdrop, this webinar will explore what Kremlin policy means and what is at stake for Europe as a whole. 

Visit [CIDOB] for further information.

8 October 2021 @ 11:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, USA

A Debrief on the German Elections and the Post-Merkel Era

On September 26, 2021, Germany held general elections. This webinar will discuss what the results mean for Germany, the European project, and Europe’s role in the world?

If you are interested in joining the event, register at [Belfer Center].

8 October 2021 @ 9:00-10:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Global Development, USA

A Bank for the World: How the Business Model of the WBG Can Better Respond to Global Challenges

Pandemics, climate change, conflict and war and other global challenges require global collective action. The World Bank, built around the country loan as the key product, has had neither the core mandate nor the adequate financing modalities needed to systematically respond to these challenges. Against this backdrop, the webinar will explore the role of the World Bank in incentivizing investments and promoting structural reforms to integrate global challenges at the core of a revamped World Bank business model.

If you are interested in joining the event, you can register at [CGDEV].

8 October 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+9), Ocean Policy Research Institute, Japan

Subsea cable development and security prospects: From the Pacific Islands to the Arctic Sea

Today’s complex geopolitical dynamics make the safety and structural integrity of the undersea cable network a major security concern: from the ocean depths to their landing zones, be them the sandy beaches of the Pacific Islands or the frozen shores of the Arctic. Against this backdrop, this webinar will analyze the challenges and prospects of submarine cable networks, which are expected to expand in the future.

For further information, see [OPRI].

8 October 2021 @ 3:30 pm (GMT+), East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore

The Cultural Origins of East Asian Developmental States

This online talk will explore what gave rise to East Asian developmental states and argues that the developmental states of the 1960s in Korea, Japan, Taiwan and even China were not part of “state formation” from the ground up. These East Asian countries have long-standing tradition and experiences with strong states and stable societies. Although the arrival of the West in the late 19th century was an exogenous shock, it did not fundamentally destroy or dissolve these countries, their societies and institutions, or their historical memories. Developmental states did not develop de novo.

For further information, see [EAI].

11-12 October 2021 @ 1:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Chatham House, UK

Cyber 2021

Chatham annual cyber conference 2021 will explore the accelerated digital transformation globally, the challenges it creates for effective cyber governance and security, and how to maintain a truly global and open internet.

Learn more about the two-days event at [Chatham House].

12 October 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Hudson Institute, USA

A Book Talk with Robert B. Zoellick

At this online talk, Ambassador Robert B. Zoellick, former World Bank president, U.S. Trade Representative, and deputy secretary of State, will introduce this book “America in the World” and share fresh insights into major episodes in the history of U.S. foreign and international economic policy. 

If you are interested in joining the event, register at [Hudson Institute].

12 October 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Institute for Policy Studies, USA

The European Green Deal: A Step Forward, Sideways, or Backward?

The European Union is currently finalizing the details of its European Green Deal, aspiring to achieve net-zero carbon emissions and eliminate pollution by 2050 and to create at the same time new jobs in a new clean-energy economy. Is this a model for the rest of the world or a large-scale exercise in greenwashing? Answers to this question from a range of economic, environmental, and geopolitical angles will be presented at this webinar.

Details about this webinar can be accessed via [IPS].

12 October 2021 @ 12.30 p.m. (GMT+10), Strategic and Defence Studies Center, Australia

Are China and Russia in a defacto alliance?

This online seminar will explore the pros and cons of the proposition that Beijing and Moscow are in a defacto alliance as well as what it means for Australia.

Further information is provided at [SDSC].

12 October 2021 @ 3:00-5:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Istituto Affari Internazionali, Italy

How can the G20 bring the voice of the Least Developed Countries into its policy agenda?

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have been hit disproportionately by the Covid-19 pandemic, and it is encouraging that many of the initiatives adopted by the G20 have a direct positive bearing on LDCs’ economic prospects. However, although the G20 members are taking important initiatives to support vulnerable countries, these may well be insufficient. Moreover, the LDCs and African countries have still no representation in this setting, hence addressing the issue of Africa’s agency in the G20 is crucial to boost its legitimacy to take decisions concerning the Continent.

This webinar will explore way to help bring the voice of the LDCs into the G20 policy agenda and to discuss the role played by the Italian G20 Presidency to effectively reflect their priorities in key G20 decision-making processes. 

Visit [IAI] for more information.

12 October 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+5.30), Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India

Sectoral Pathways for a Net-Zero Future for India: Implications and Feasibility

Stringent climate action is necessary to stay below 1.5ºC and avoid catastrophes resulting from rapid climate change. However, there is a limited understanding of the possible implications of the radical transformation required to achieve a net-zero future in India. This webinar will discuss the implications and feasibility of alternative net-zero scenarios for India, the economic and sectoral milestones required for their foundation, the way forward on policy directions and decisions, and the challenges and opportunities in achieving carbon neutrality.

For more information, see [CEEW].

12 October 2021 @ 9:00-10:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Global Development, USA

Responding to the Risks of COVID-19 Debt Distress

The Covid-19 pandemic has produced an enormous global economic shock and ongoing risks to economic growth, poverty reduction progress, and sustainable development in many middle- and low-income countries (MICS and LICs). G20 efforts to provide relief to poor countries have revealed long-standing weaknesses in the international architecture for sovereign debt relief and restructuring. The online discussion will explore changes needed in the system, including recommendations to strengthen debt transparency and accountability, standards for sovereign debt contracts, comparable treatment of creditors, and the roles of international financial institutions in debt restructuring and fostering new investment.

Find out more at [CGDEV].

12 October 2021 @ 8:30-9:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Brookings, USA

The role of domestic politics in US-Taiwan relations

This webinar will explore how politics is impacting policy in Washington and Taipei and what the implications are for U.S.-Taiwan relations. Among the focal questions addressed are:  What factors have enabled this development of U.S.-Taiwan relations? How durable is the trend? And how widely shared is the view in Washington and Taipei that strengthening U.S.-Taiwan relations are beneficial for each side’s long-term interests?

Further information is available at [Brookings]. 

12 October 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Institute for Security Studies Africa, South Africa

Are coups back in Africa?

Africa has long struggled to prevent the menace of coups, unconstitutional changes of government and the instability they bring. The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance was adopted in 2012 to steer national, regional and continental efforts to consolidate democracy and prevent insurrection. Why are the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities failing to address the problem and what lessons can they learn from the recent overthrows in Chad, Mali and Guinea? Find answers to these questions at this webinar.

Visit [ISS Africa] for more details.

12-13 October 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

36th ASEAN Roundtable – Braving the Storms: ASEAN in Crisis Mode

This two-day webinar explores the possibility of promoting a more inclusive and equitable economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic in ASEAN and examines key events and developments that have shaken and reshaped the region’s political-security landscape in 2021.

If you are interested in the event, find more at [ISEAS 1] and [ISEAS 2].

Recent Book Releases 

Bruno Macaes, Geopolitics for the End Time: From the Pandemic to the Climate, C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd, 240 pages, September 2, 2021. For a review, see [The New Statesman].

Mark Leonard, The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict, Bantam Press, 220 pages, September 2, 2021, reviewed in [The New Statesman].

Lawrence O. Gostin, Global Health Security: A Blueprint for the Future, Harvard University Press, 352 pages, September 28, 2021, with a short review in [Publishers Weekly].

Alex Vatanka, The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979, I.B. Tauris, 264 pages, May 6, 2021, reviewed in [Inside Arabia].

Dinkar P. Srivastava, Forgotten Kashmir: The Other Side of the Line of Control, HarperCollins India, 304 pages, February 13, 2021, reviewed in [Vivekananda International Foundation].

Sokphea Young, Strategies of Authoritarian Survival and Dissensus in Southeast Asia: Weak Men Versus Strongmen, Palgrave Macmillan, 261 pages, July 2, 2021. See [Palgrave] for short reviews.

Bob Woodward  and Robert Costa, Peril, Simon & Schuster, 512 pages, September 21, 2021, with a review in [The Guardian].

Cheng Li, Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping U.S.-China Engagement, Brookings Institution Press, 484 pages, May 11, 2021. For more information, see SupChina’s book discussion with the author at [Youtube].

Kingshuk Nag, A New Silk Road: India, China and the Geopolitics of Asia, Rupa Publications India, 184 pages, February 10, 2021, reviewed in [The Print].

Andrea Ghiselli, Protecting China’s Interests Overseas: Securitization and Foreign Policy, Oxford University Press, 304 pages, February 4, 2021, with a review in [Wavell Room].

Calls for Papers

Tufts University is welcoming submission of paper proposals for the fourth annual Student Symposium in Cybersecurity Policy to be held on March 11 and 12, 2022. Closing date for submissions is November 29, 2021. For more information, see [Tufts University].

The Memory Studies Association (MSA) invites proposals for its sixth annual conference, dedicated to the theme of “Solidarity”.  Hosted by the Critical Global Studies Institute, Sogang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea, the conference will be held on July 3-7, 2022. Deadline for submissions is January, 2022. Visit [MSA] for more details.

The Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality” of Konstanz University invites contributions from scholars with a background in political science, sociology, economics, linguistics, education research, psychology and law to be presented at the “In_equality” conference, scheduled for April 6-8, 2022. Closing date for submissions in November 30, 2021. Find more about the call at [Uni Konstanz].

Jobs and Positions

The Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on the Great Lakes Region is hiring a Political Affairs Officer. Duty station will be Nairobi. Closing date for application is October 31, 2021. For more information, visit [UN Careers].

The Norwegian Refugee Council is recruiting a Regional Programme Adviser with responsibility in providing specialist advice and guidance to the Country Director Sri Lanka and/or Head of Programme and Grants Managers at Country level in ensuring that optimal program strategies, structures, systems and resources are in place. Sri Lanka. Applications will be accepted until October 19, 2021. Further details are provided at [NRC].

The European Cybersecurity Industrial, Technology and Research Competence Centre is offering a position of Executive Director who shall be responsible for operations and for the day-to-day management of the Centre. Deadline for applications is October 7, 2021. Learn more about the vacancy at [European Commission].

The European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Training (CEPOL) is hiring an Executive Director to be responsible for the day-to-day administration of CEPOL. Closing date for applications is October 6, 2021. Further details are accessible via [European Commission].

Georgetown University welcomes applications for the position of a Post-Doctoral Fellow in Russian Politics and International Affairs which will be based at the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies (CERES) of the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. Applications can be submitted until October 30, 2021. Visit [Georgetown University] for further information.

The Department of Politics of Princeton University is seeking applications for tenured or tenure-track faculty position in Middle Eastern politics on the level of Assistant, Associate or Full Professor. Review of applications begin on September 13, 2021. If you are interested, find out more at [Princeton University].

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