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November 2, 2020 - Brief Issue 114

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Reports More Than 99,000 New Covid-19 Cases Friday; No States Report Improvements (Health & Science)

Fauci: United States Needs to Make “Abrupt Change” in Pandemic Policy (Health & Science)

Europe Surpasses 10 Million Cases (Around the World)

England to Enter Second Lockdown; Prince William Had Coronavirus in April (Around the World)

Weekend of Violent Protests in Spain over Coronavirus Measures (Around the World)

Slovakia Tests Half its Population in One Day (Around the World)

Australia Records No New Cases (Around the World)

Trump Suggests He May Fire Fauci; Trump Also Falsely Claims Doctors Benefit When People Die from Covid (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pre-Print Study Attributes 30,000 Covid-19 Cases and 700 Deaths to Trump Rallies (U.S. Government & Politics)

Companies Express Concern Despite Signs of Rebounding Demand (U.S. Economy)

Nursing Home Staffing Plummeted Early in Outbreak (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 9,207,364 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 230,996 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,630,579 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 147,218,569 tests. Worldwide, there have been 46,545,885 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,200,862 deaths. At least 31,095,106 people have recovered from the virus. 

U.S. Reports More Than 99,000 New Covid-19 Cases Friday; No States Report Improvements

The United States reported more than 99,000 new cases of Covid-19 on Friday, breaking a record set only a week earlier (Johns Hopkins, NYT). Sixteen states reported record single-day increases on Friday, and none reported fewer cases than the week before. Three states – Montana, New Mexico and Tennessee – reported record deaths from Covid-19. Utah, which was among the states reporting record numbers, issued an emergency alert statewide, saying that “hospitals are nearly overwhelmed.”

At least 31 states in the U.S. reported at least one daily high of new Covid-19 cases in October, and experts believe that the situation will worsen in November (CNN). The seven-day average of new cases reached 78,380 on Saturday, higher than the summer peak and well over twice as high as the low point recorded in September. Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University, said that cases are not expected to drop in the near future. “We won’t peak until we change our behaviors,” Reiner said. “And our behaviors that principally need to change are our lack of masking all over the country.”

In an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb offered similar sentiments (CBS). “Things are getting worse around the county,” Gottlieb said. “I think Thanksgiving is really going to be an inflection point. I think December is probably going to be our toughest month.” Gottlieb also stressed the importance of federal support for state-led measures like mask mandates and targeted mitigation methods.

Fauci: United States Needs to Make “Abrupt Change” in Pandemic Policy

As Election Day approaches and Covid-19 cases soar across the U.S., President Trump continues to downplay the seriousness of the virus, accusing doctors of over-reporting deaths, attacking the news media for its constant coverage of the pandemic, and mocking doctors, particularly Dr. Anthony Fauci, as “idiots who got it wrong.”

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, has been outspoken about the need to take steps to control the virus but until now has largely refrained from responding directly to Mr. Trump’s remarks. In an interview with the Washington Post this Saturday, however, Dr. Fauci expressed strong criticism of the president’s handling of the pandemic (WaPo, CNN).

At the start of the pandemic, Dr. Fauci, who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, took a leading role, briefing the president daily. Now, however, Dr. Fauci has said that he and Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus task force coordinator, are not invited to meet with the president regularly. Dr. Fauci has not spoken with the president since early October.

In the Washington Post interview, Dr. Fauci criticized the White House for relying almost exclusively on the advice of Dr. Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist who advocates for allowing uncontrolled viral spread among young people and unrestricted reopening of the country. Dr. Atlas’s views are not shared by mainstream public health experts. “I have real problems with that guy,” said Fauci of Atlas. “He’s a smart guy who’s talking about things that I believe he doesn’t have any real insight or knowledge or experience in.”

Dr. Fauci warned in his interview that the United States needed to make an “abrupt change” in its pandemic response. “All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly,” he said.

Dr. Fauci also contrasted the Trump campaign with that of Joe Biden, saying that the Biden campaign “is taking it seriously from a public health perspective” while the Trump campaign, which has held maskless rallies that packed attendees in close quarters, is “looking at it from a different perspective.”

White House Spokesperson Judd Deere called Fauci’s remarks “unacceptable,” criticizing him for “choos[ing] three days before an election to play politics.” Other White House advisers have expressed frustration with Fauci for focusing too much on his personal messaging and not being “on the team.” For his part, Dr. Fauci intends to continue broadcasting public health messaging through media interviews. Without the benefit of regular White House meetings, Dr. Fauci says, “the thing we can do is try to get the message out.”

States Lack Funding to Distribute Covid-19 Vaccine

State health officials charged with preparing to receive and distribute Covid-19 vaccines are saying that the federal government has not provided the necessary financial support to do so (WaPo). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has asked states to submit details of their plans by Tuesday and to be ready to receive and distribute vaccines by November 15, although a vaccine is not likely to be approved by that date.

For several weeks, states have been creating plans for the receipt and distribution of a Covid-19 vaccine. In order to be ready to start vaccinating residents as soon as a vaccine is approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), states need sufficient cold storage, training for providers, updated information technology systems, and public communications campaigns. These measures require substantial funding, but officials say the federal government has not responded to requests to discuss the issue.

The CDC has already sent $200 million to states in Covid-19 vaccine support. However, CDC director Robert Redfield testified to Congress last month that approximately $6 billion is needed to complete distribution. Governors who have been seeking answers to their funding questions for months feel unprepared to submit these plans without knowledge of available resources. It is uncertain whether Congress will respond to the states’ requests for additional funding. Should Congress fail to provide funding, the Department of Health and Human Services has the power to reallocate funds designated for other purposes to help with vaccine distribution.

Disparities in Covid Testing Revealed in New York

In New York, doctoral student Wil Lieberman-Cribbin documented the prevalence of Covid-19 testing by ZIP code and found that wealthy neighborhoods had far higher rates of testing than poor neighborhoods (NYT). Offices and private schools have made testing routine. Wealthier neighborhoods tend to have more urgent care clinics, where tests are readily available. Even when testing sites are available in poorer neighborhoods, communication about site location and testing procedures has been lacking. Public health officials are concerned that high positivity rates in areas with inadequate testing may mask the severity of an outbreak. Dr. Beverly Watkins, a social epidemiologist at the University of California-Irvine, called the messaging to low-income communities “horrendous,” saying, “if you can’t get [the virus] down in public housing, you’ve lost the war.”

CDC Advisory Committee Considers Plan for Equitable Vaccine Distribution

An expert advisory committee reporting to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is considering a plan that would reserve a portion of the first available Covid-19 vaccines for the hardest-hit communities (NYT). These communities tend to be those with high-density housing, increased rates of multi-generational living and lower incomes. They also tend to be disproportionately composed of Black, Hispanic, and Native American people. The committee’s report asserted, “mitigating these inequities by explicitly addressing the higher burden on Covid-19 experienced by these populations is a moral imperative of any equitable vaccine allocation framework.”

The committee is expected to discuss the plan further on Friday but plans to submit a final proposal only after a vaccine is approved. Adoption of the plan depends on a variety of factors, including balancing distribution among high-risk healthcare and nursing home workers. The proposal must also address how to define “hard-hit” or at-risk neighborhoods and determine whether low-income communities of color – which are often understandably skeptical of the medical establishment – would want to participate in the first wave of vaccination.

Bonus Read: “Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effect,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Europe

Europe Surpasses 10 Million Cases

Europe surpassed 10 million confirmed coronavirus cases and 268,000 Covid-19-related deaths on Sunday, with the continent averaging about 253,000 new cases a day. The number of infections doubled in just 32 days and is growing three times as fast as it is in the U.S. After the first wave ended in July, Europe was averaging around 15,000 new infections and 300 deaths per day. Currently, the Czech Republic, Belgium, and Andorra have the highest infection rates. Russia has reported more cases than any other European country at 1.6 million, but it also has the largest population. Britain has reported the most deaths, at almost 47,000 (NYT).

England to Enter Second Lockdown; Prince William Had Coronavirus in April

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a one-month lockdown for England over the weekend as the U.K. struggles to contain the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Johnson announced on Saturday that strict measures would be imposed across England starting on Thursday, closing pubs, restaurants, gyms, non-essential shops, and places of worship (BBC). Johnson will address Parliament later today and is expected to warn that Covid-19 deaths could be twice as high over the winter as they were during the first wave earlier this year. On Sunday, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said that the lockdown could be extended if necessary to bring down the transmission rate of the virus (Retuers). The U.K. is currently grappling with more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day and scientists have warned that the death toll could reach over 80,000 this winter. 

On Sunday, British media reported that Prince William had contracted Covid-19 in April at a similar time as his father, Prince Charles (Sun, BBC, Reuters). Prince William was treated by palace doctors and isolated at home in Anmer Hall, in Norfolk and still carried out 14 engagements via telephone or videoconference throughout the month. A source told British newspaper the Sun that Prince William did not publicly reveal that he had contracted Covid-19 because he didn’t want to “alarm the nation.” Bonus Read: “The Coronavirus Keeps Most London Theaters Dark, While Performers Stock Grocery Shelves,” (WaPo).

Weekend of Violent Protests in Spain over Coronavirus Measures

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has called for an end to “the violent and irrational behaviour” of a minority of people after a weekend of angry demonstrations in cities around the country against the government’s decision to declare a six-month state of emergency in response to the coronavirus pandemic (Politico). On Saturday, 32 people were arrested and 12 injured in Madrid after a protest over the region’s curfew turned violent (Guardian). El País reported that about 60 people were arrested and 30 officers were injured in clashes in Madrid, Barcelona, Málaga, and other cities as protestors set fire to trash bins and damaged store fronts. Some provinces have already introduced night time curfews and closed restaurants, bars, and cultural venues.

Slovakia Tests Half its Population in One Day 

Slovakia took swabs from more than two and a half million people -- about half its total population -- on Saturday in the start of a two-day push for mass coronavirus testing (NYT, Guardian). The defense minister, Jaroslav Naď, said that about 25,850 people, or about 1%, had tested positive and had to go into quarantine. The country is undertaking a nationwide testing drive that the government hopes will help reverse the current surge in new infections while avoiding a hard lockdown. Although testing was free and voluntary, the government said those who do not participate will be forced to enter a lockdown and will not be allowed to go to work. The second day of testing is scheduled for next weekend. The daily average increase in cases over the past week rose to 2,400 in the country and some health experts questioned the wisdom of requiring large groups of people to gather together to get tested (Lancet). 

Stockholm, Overwhelmed, Pauses Testing

Sweden’s capital of Stockholm has paused at-home Covid-19 testing for four days after a surge in demand left 16,000 waiting for tests for active infections, authorities said on Sunday (Reuters). Currently, residents are able to apply online for delivery and pickup of tests that they can administer themselves. However, “The number of people ordering home tests has increased so sharply that a queue has formed that now needs to be worked off,” the region of Stockholm said in a statement explaining its decision. Testing of patients and staff in the healthcare system and at nursing homes is not affected by the pause on home testing. 

Americas

Mexico’s Day of the Dead Upended by the Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic disrupted Mexico’s commemoration of the dead as many cemeteries were closed and parades and altars in town squares were cancelled or made virtual. Day of the Dead is a Mexican holiday that celebrates the lives and honors the memory of those who have passed on and has grown in popularity among tourists in recent years (NPR). Traditionally, entire communities gather at cemeteries, clean and decorate graves of loved ones, and partake in signing, drinking, eating, and remembering those who have died. But this year most people were forced to construct altars at home instead of visiting cemeteries and were prevented from gathering with family members. “Death has a festive side in Mexico. But there’s also a very human side of deep pain. And the pain of death during the pandemic hasn’t had a place to be expressed,” said Abraham Villavicencio, a gallery curator in Mexico City, who studies the Day of the Dead (Guardian).

Asia and the Pacific

Australia Records No New Cases

Australia registered no new local Covid-19 infections on Saturday for the first time since June 9 (CNN). The positive milestone comes just months after the state of Victoria declared a state of disaster when its outbreak saw as many as 725 people test positive in one day. Melbourne, the city that was the epicenter of the country’s pandemic, also marked its second consecutive day without any locally transmitted cases. Melbourne ended its strict 112-day lockdown on Tuesday and since then the city has registered only seven new local infections. 

Jakarta’s Graveyards Running Out of Space

The coronavirus is ravaging Indonesia, causing so many deaths that graveyards in Jakarta are now running out of space to bury the dead. Jakarta has the sixth-largest population among Indonesia’s 34 provinces with over 10 million residents, but it is also the smallest geographically. About 90 percent of Indonesia’s population are Muslim, meaning that cremation is out of the question as it is forbidden under the Islamic faith. In response to the crisis, the city government is bulldozing a five-acre site for a cemetery in the north of the city in order to accommodate victims (WaPo). As of Friday, there were 105,000 cases and more than 2,200 deaths in Jakarta alone. Indonesia has one of the world’s highest observed case-fatality rations, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

U.S. Government & Politics

Trump Suggests He May Fire Fauci; Trump Also Falsely Claims Doctors Benefit When People Die from Covid

Speaking after midnight during a Sunday campaign rally in Florida, President Trump suggested he might fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after the election (CNN). While Trump was speaking, the crowd broke into a chant of “Fire Fauci” to which Trump replied, “Don't tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election.” Trump added, “I appreciate the advice.” The comments come as Fauci has become more open in his criticism of Trump’s policy approach and with the election only a day away. CNN notes, “Under federal law, Trump doesn't have the power to directly fire Fauci, a career civil servant, and remove him from government. He could try ordering his political appointees to dismiss him, but it would be a time-consuming process that Fauci could appeal.”

During another campaign event on Friday, Trump falsely asserted that doctors benefit when people die from Covid (Politico). He stated, “our doctors get more money if someone dies from Covid” asserting they “like $2,000 more.” The comments drew criticism from the Biden campaign, with Biden commenting, “The president of the United States is accusing the medical profession of making up Covid deaths so they make more money” and adding, “Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives. They do their jobs. Donald Trump should stop attacking them and do his job.” The comment also drew criticism from the American Medical Association, which called them “malicious, outrageous and comply misguided.” On Sunday, Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser, continued to defend the comments, saying when criticized, that he wouldn’t “get into the billing aspects of which there have been many reports.” Trump has been making such false comments about doctors benefitting from Covid deaths since at least October 24 (Factcheck.org). Last week, we covered reports regarding Trump adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner’s April comments that Trump was taking back the coronavirus response from doctors, revealed in a recently reported upon interview conducted by investigative journalist Bob Woodward.

Pre-Print Study Attributes 30,000 Covid-19 Cases and 700 Deaths to Trump Rallies

A study from Stanford University estimates that 18 Trump campaign rallies held between June 20 and September 30 may have caused 30,000 Covid-19 infections and 700 deaths, not necessarily constrained to those who attended the rallies (Politico, The Hill, CNBC). The study examined community spread immediately after each rally and compared it to spread in regions that had not held rallies. The researchers applied county-specific death rate statistics to estimate the number of deaths likely to have resulted from the rallies. The study has not yet undergone peer review and is posted on a platform for pre-print work.

Donald Trump has drawn criticism for his campaign events, which are often crowded and held in states experiencing rising case numbers. Although the study highlights the risks of ignoring public health guidelines, experts caution against drawing strong conclusions from it. Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said that while the design of the study was adequate, the methods are “not particularly robust.” “There are better ways to look at this data through actual infectious disease epidemic lenses,” Mina said. “It is also so overtly political that it makes it hard to distinguish if there were decisions made out of perhaps unrecognized bias.” 

Trump Adviser Dr. Scott Atlas Says Lockdowns, Public Health Leadership are Killing People in RT Interview, Apologizes for Appearing on RT

Dr. Scott Atlas, a White House pandemic adviser, gave an interview to Russia Today from the White House grounds in which he asserted that lockdowns “are killing people” (CNN, Daily Beast, NPR). CNN notes that Atlas “is a radiologist and who has no expertise in infectious diseases or epidemiology.” In the interview, he asserted, “The public health leadership… They’re killing people with their fear-inducing shutdown policies.” The appearance on Russia Today, Russia’s state-owned media station, drew criticism. On Sunday, Atlas tweeted: “I recently did an interview with RT and was unaware they are a registered foreign agent. I regret doing the interview and apologize for allowing myself to be taken advantage of. I especially apologize to the national security community who is working hard to defend us.” Atlas did not apologize or change his comments on the role of public health leadership.

Bonus Read: “‘A Political Thing’: How Mask Mandates Became a Defining Issue in Iowa,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Companies Express Concern Despite Signs of Rebounding Demand

In several sectors of the economy, demand is rebounding and generating hopes for renewed growth, but many companies are still expressing concern over the future, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Stronger demand buoyed companies ranging from auto makers to cereal producers during the quarter that ended in September as businesses and consumers adapted to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus. Yet executives described the path forward as tenuous, with caseloads hitting records in the U.S. and government officials in Europe and elsewhere imposing limits on some activities.” Coca-Cola CEO James Quincy stated last month, “It is not a straight-line recovery around the world.” Apple has similarly expressed caution, with its Chief Financial Officer commenting, citing “the continued uncertainty around the world in the near term” to justify the company’s lack of a revenue forecast. Meanwhile, in recent weeks, Exxon Mobile and Boeing both announced further layoffs.

U.S. Society

Nursing Home Staffing Plummeted Early in Outbreak

Early in the pandemic, nursing home staffing levels plummeted, leaving many nursing homes unprepared to handle the challenges the virus posed, according to an analysis of federal data by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal reports, “that as the novel coronavirus tore through states like New Jersey and New York in April, as many as 127 hard-hit nursing homes on a single day had nurse-staffing levels that fell at least 25% below their levels for the comparable days in 2019, a sign that experts say points to a significant shortage. On many days in April the number of facilities with Covid-19 outbreaks that had such shortfalls was more than twice what was typical at those same facilities in the months before the pandemic, the data show. More than 300 nursing homes with virus outbreaks reported at least one day in the second quarter of 2020 in which their staffing levels fell more than 40% below their levels for the comparable day last year.” In one nursing home, Atrium Post Acute Care in Park Ridge, New Jersey, the Journal found 19 straight days of staffing levels 30% or more below 2019 levels. While some nursing homes saw staffing levels rise relative to the number of residents, the Journal reports that experts believe that is the result of residents dying. The impact of the pandemic on nursing homes has been large. As the Journal writes, “There have been more than 88,000 Covid-19 deaths linked to long-term care facilities in the U.S., according to a Journal tally of recent state, local and federal data. That represents about 40% of all recorded Covid-19 deaths.”

Bonus Read: “Inside One Brooklyn Restaurant’s Desperate Fight to Survive the Pandemic,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

James Hamblin argues Trump has moved from downplaying the virus to full denial (Atlantic).

All 15 New York Times opinion columnists write on what has been lost over the past four years (NYT).

Sarah Aziza writes on the impact of the pandemic on migrant workers in the Persian Gulf (Nation).

The Washington Post investigates how polling place policies on masks reflect the politics of their local governing bodies (WaPo).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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