Grasp the pattern, read the trend
Asia in Review
No. 4, January/2021, 4
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
Welcome to this week's Asia in Review update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.
I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Nauru which celebrates Independence Day this week.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Law and Politics in Asia
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Law and Politics in Asia
Healthy diet unaffordable for 1.9 billion people in Asia-Pacific in 2020
(dql) Findings of a joint report, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the United Nations Children’s Fund, the World Food Programme and the World Health Organization, reveal that 1.9 billion people in Asia-Pacific could not afford a healthy diet in 2020, with 1.3 billion of them living in South Asia, 230 million in East Asia, 325.5 million in Southeast Asia, and 0.5 million in Oceania. The global number stands at 3 billion.
The report cited the coronavirus pandemic and surging prices of fruits, vegetables and dairy products as reason for the nutrition crisis. [UN News]
Law and Politics in East Asia
China: Charges against prominent dissidents elevated
(dql) Chinese human rights lawyer Ding Jiaxi and Xi Jinping-critic Xu Zhiyong are soon to be tried over charges that have been elevated from “inciting subversion” to “subversion of state power” which can be punished with sentences from 3 to 11 years in prison.
Currently in detention, both were instrumental in forming the New Citizens movement in 2012, a civil society group which seeks to expose corruption in society and promote political reforms. They were arrested about a year ago after taking part in a meeting with civil rights lawyers and activists in late 2019 at which they are reported to have discussed the “democratic transition of China”.
Prior to his arrest, Xu openly accused the Chinese Communist Party of being responsible for the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan by suppressing the freedom of speech. [South China Morning Post] [Asia News] [AiR No. 1, January/2020, 1]
Meanwhile, prominent Chinese human rights lawyer Yu Wensheng China has been shortlisted for the Martin Ennals Award for Human Rights Defenders, named after the former Secretary-General of Amnesty International. Yu was detained in early 2018 after calling for political reform and Xi Jinping’s resignation. [China Digital Times]
China: Top anti-corruption agency’s annual meeting
(dql) China’s top anti-corruption agency – the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection – held its annual meeting last week, attended by President Xi Jinping, over 130 members of the Commission and their provincial counterparts.
After recent high-profile corruption trials with harsh verdicts in the immediate run up to the meeting – including a life and a death sentence –, the Commission reaffirmed in its final communique its resolve to further increase its determination by issuing new regulations that aim at strengthening Beijing’s anti-corruption regime. This includes entrenching the reform of the discipline inspection and supervision systems and strengthening internal monitoring and discipline. [South China Morning Post] [The Herald] [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]
Speaking on the occasion, President Xi named corruption “the biggest risk to the Party’s governance,” and added that while the party has made “historic achievements” in combatting corruption, it “still exists,” warning that “old and new types of corruption have become intertwined and corruption is increasingly covert and complex.” Notably, President Xi highlighted the importance of “leveraging the guiding and safeguarding roles of strict Party governance in every respect.” [Xinhua, in Chinese]
China/Hong Kong: Pro-government lawmakers suggest installation of cameras in classrooms
(dql) To further tighten control over education, pro-establishment lawmakers in Hong Kong have proposed to install surveillance cameras in classrooms to improve monitoring teachers’ behavior, specifying that only the teachers, not the students would be recorded. [Hong Kong Free Press 2]
The legislative move comes against the background of the lifelong disqualification of a teacher in October last year after he handed out worksheets asking students to discuss independence and freedom of speech. Another case is pending in which a teacher is accused of “using inappropriate and biased teaching materials”. [AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2] [Hong Kong Free Press 2]
For insights in current classroom atmosphere in Hong Kong – the former British colony hosts over 1.000 primary and secondary schools and some of Asia’s best universities where freedom of speech has been observed so far –, see Shirley Lau in the [Equal Times] citing a teacher saying: “In the past, everyone could speak freely. Now there is this invisible red line. I would try to steer clear of certain things, and some of my students would tease me as a way to tell me to be careful. You never know when some pro-Beijing student or their parents will report you.”
China: Hong Kong district councilors to be required to take allegiance oath
(dql) Hong Kong’s government revealed that it will soon table in the Legislative Council, the city’s parliament, an amendment bill in February after Lunar New Year that would categorize district councillors as public officers requiring them to take an oath to swear allegiance to the city under the Hong Kong National Security Law. The new law would also stipulate that expressing opinions contrary to the government’s stance in the capacity of a district councillor would constitute a breach of the oath.
The announcement has sparked concerns that Beijing is trying to further suppress the opposition in the city by stamping out the influence of district councilors, as currently the 479 District Council seats are predominantly occupied by the pro-democracy camp, as a result of its landslide victory in the 2019 District Council Election. [The Standard] [Hong Kong Press 1]
In a related development, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong Hong (DAB), Hong Kong’s largest pro-Beijing party, demanded that the government set up monitoring committees to ensure district councillors abide by their allegiance oaths. [Hong Kong Press 2]
China: Beijing set to turn into high-tech hub
(dql) To elevate China’s strength in science and technology and to signal the country’s ambition to be a global leader in these areas, the city of Beijing has announced plans to develop new trillion-yuan hi-tech manufacturing clusters to strengthen capabilities in areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum communication. The plans also include offering better work conditions as well as opening up research facilities to international scientists to attract global talent. [China Economic Net] [South China Morning Post]
China’s economic performance 2020 and outlook for 2021
(dql) According to data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Chinese economy was the only major economy to achieve growth in a pandemic-ridden 2020 with an overall growth of 2.3% after a decisive Covid-19 clampdown. Meanwhile, the Eurozone stood at an average of negative 7.3% with Germany’s economy, Europe’s by far strongest, having shrunk 5%. Echoing these numbers, UN figures confirm China as largest recipient of new foreign direct investment in the past year. With 163 billion USD in investment, it surpassed for the first time the US, which attracted 134 billion USD.
For China, however, the 2020 results still meant the country’s slowest economic expansion in over four decades since the world’s second largest economy embarked on major economic reforms in the late 1970s. [Deutsche Welle] [UNCTAD]
According to the World Bank, relative success seams to stay in 2021 with estimated 7.9 % Chinese growth against an expected global expansion of 4%. [Business Insider] [World Bank]
The rather positive outlook for China in relation to other major economies might, however, need some correction if the recent Covid-19 outbreaks, along with an aggressive set of countermeasures – including home quarantines, travel curbs and mass testing this month – would signal a resurge in domestic infections again. January saw the worst Covid-19 wave in the country since March 2020, with new virus clusters located in the North and the South respectively. The fact that Chinese authorities are discouraging travel during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday highlights how serious the threat is. [Reuters] [ABC News] [AP] [China Digital Times 1]
Last but not least, expanding lockdown policies in China were already reflected by global oil market corrections fueling fears that global oil demand could be weaker this quarter than anticipated just a week ago. [OilPrice]
Moreover, the relative economic expansion might also be dependent on differences in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout where Chinese vaccination stays behind competing products in terms of effectiveness so far. See for instance [China Digital Times 2].
Japan: New punishments for non-compliance with anti-pandemic measures on the table
(dql) Last week, Japan's Cabinet approved bills allowing punishments for people who do not comply with anti-pandemic measures. Changes would include imprisonment up to one year is foreseen for people who refuse hospitalization or penalties on business operators who ignore orders to cut operating hours. They also grant more power to government and prefectural governors to issue – in Japan rather binding – administrative guidances to medical facilities to accept people infected with the novel coronavirus and allow them to make public the names of the facilities that do not obey.
Japan sees currently a surge of coronavirus infections, with seven out the country’s 47 prefectures under a state of emergency. [Mainichi]
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s appointed Taro Kono, the country’s administrative reform minister, to coordinate preparations for rollout of the coronavirus vaccine scheduled for end of February. The appointment is widely seen as an attempt’s Suga’s to use Kono’s popularity to halt rapidly-sinking approval ratings over widespread criticism of his handling of the pandemic, currently standing at 34% compared to 74% when he took office four months ago. Kono, the former Foreign and Defence Minister, enjoys a reputation of being effective and was named first choice for prime minister in a recent opinion poll. [Straits Times] [Reuters]
For an explanation why Japan’s Prime Minister clings on hopes of holding the Olympic Games despite rising infections numbers, an unpredictable development of the pandemic and almost 80% of the population demanding a cancellation or a postponement, see Craig Mark in [The Conversation] who argues he needs the prestigious Games to secure chances at the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in September, but at the same time warns that “[u]nless the Suga government can quickly tackle the pandemic more effectively, it may soon find hosting the games has slipped beyond its control – and its political fate along with it.”
Japan: Lawmaker sentenced to jail for vote buying
(dql) Member of Japan’s Upper House Anri Kawai was sentenced to a year and four months in jail, suspended for five years, after she was found guilty of vote buying in the 2019 Upper House election.
The ruling is believed to affect the trial her husband Katsuyuki Kawai, a lawmaker in the Lower and former justice minister, who is accused of conspiring with his wife in handling out money in return for votes in the election. [Mainichi]
South Korea: New anti-corruption agency launched
(dql) South Korea launched a new powerful ant-corruption agency, the Corruption Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), with President Moon swearing in former judge as the inaugural head of the agency.
The CIO is tasked with investigating and indict corruption cases that involve former and incumbent high-ranking officials, including the president, government members and lawmakers, as well as senior ranks of the judiciary, prosecution, police and military. Previously, the power to investigate and indict in any criminal case has been in the hands of the prosecution, making the establishment of the CIO a major shift in South Korea’s criminal justice system.
The new body is part of the reform of the country’s prosecution which Moon had pledged to realize during his presidential campaign in 2017 aimed at reducing the far-reaching powers the prosecution still enjoyed prior to the reform. [Korea Herald] [Yonhap]
Taiwan: Parliament passes infrastructure budget
(dql) Taiwan’s parliaments last week approved a special budget of more than 8 billion USD for spending related to the third stage of the central government's so-called Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program (FIDP). It shall be completed by 2025 and is supposed to accelerate Taiwan’s digital development and improve the urban-rural allocation of resources to also boost rural infrastructure development. [Focus Taiwan]
Launched in 2017, the FIDP aims to meet Taiwan’s development needs for the next 30 years, covering eight categories: aquatic environments, child care facilities, digital infrastructure, food safety, green energy, human resources, railways and urban-rural renewal projects. [Executive Yuan, Taiwan]
Taiwan: Nuclear power plant referendum date set
(nm) A national referendum on activating the long-inactive Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City’s Gongliao District is set for August 28, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC).
The referendum initiative launched by nuclear power advocate Huang Shih-hsiu will ask: “Do you agree that the 4th Nuclear Power Plant be activated for commercial operations?” It is currently the only referendum initiative that has met the endorsement threshold required to be put to a vote, although several other initiatives are still pending, including one to eliminate the restriction as to when a referendum can be held. The CEC will announce the referendums to be held on May 27 and hold presentations on the proposed questions until August 27. Official results will be announced on September 3, although unofficial results should be known the night of the vote.
The power plant was close to completion before being put off in 2014 and has become a focal point in the national debate over nuclear power. [Focus Taiwan] [Taipei Times]
Mongolia: Prime Minister resigns over mistreat of Covid-19 infected woman
(dql/nm) Mongolian Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa announced last week he will immediately resign to take responsibility for a case in which a woman who recently gave birth to child was moved from a maternity hospital to an infectious disease center after she was tested positive on the coronavirus while wearing only hospital pyjamas and plastic slippers, despite temperatures of around minus 25 degrees Celsius. The TV footage of the incident sparked protests of thousands of people expressing their discontent with the treatment of the woman and the government’s Covid-19 policies in general.
Mongolia reported very low numbers of Covid-19 cases last year. The first official domestic transmissions then led to extended lockdowns and restrictions on movement, as well as a ban on cross-border travel.
Along with the Prime Minister, Vice Prime Minister, who doubles as head of the national emergency commission handling the pandemic, the Minister of Health, and the directors of the hospital and disease center submitted their resignation. [Strait Times] [Channel News Asia]
Ukhnaa is member of the governing Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), which holds a strong majority in the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s parliament. Its Steeering Committee and the MPP’s Conference have since agreed to nominate L. Oyun-Erdene, who has been serving as the government’s Chief of the Cabinet Secretary, as the next Prime Minister. The nomination is yet to be discussed by the MPP parliamentary group, Parliament’s Standing Committee on State Structures, and a plenary session of the State Great Khural.
Ukhnaa has found himself in a long-running political rivalry with President Khaltmaagiin Battulga of the Democratic Party. In a statement to parliament last week, he accused Battulga of politicizing and funding the people’s demonstration. On his resignation, he further said to have “made this decision to prevent riot and disorder which might be caused by misuse of people’s trust and instigation.” Now-resigning Ukhnaa had been considered a likely presidential candidate to run against Battulga in elections to be held in June, though facing competition within his own political party. [The Independent[ [The New York Times, $] [AkIpress 1] [AKIpress 2]
Law and Politics in South Asia
Bangladesh: Amnesty International voices concerns over detention of artists
(lm) Amnesty International has expressed its deep concern about the recent arbitrary detention and other forms of harassment of artists who are facing increasing attacks on their right to freedom of expression for addressing social injustice, police brutality, inequality and discrimination. In a report published on January 21, the UK-based organization also authorities to immediately and unconditionally release all artists unlawfully detained and to repeal the Digital Security Act 2018 or substantially amend its repressive provisions. [Dhaka Tribune] [Amnesty International]
Taking place against the larger backdrop of an increasingly repressive government, this trend is hardly surprising: Throughout the last year, more than 40 people have been arrested over social media posts about the pandemic, lending credence to concerns that the Digital Security Act 2018 is used as a pretense to muzzle critics of the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3].
India: Unions reject government’s offer to suspend new farm laws
(lm) The Indian government on January 20 offered to suspend three contentious agricultural laws for up to 18 months in an effort to end nearly two months of mass protest by farm groups against Prime Minister Narendra Modi [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. Later the same day, however, the Samyukt Kisan Morcha [Joint Farmers Front], an umbrella body of unions leading the protests, ruled out any deal, saying the three laws must be fully repealed. [The Straits Times] [BBC]
Earlier the Supreme Court (SC) already put the implementation of the laws on hold and appointed an independent panel of experts to resolve the deadlock between the government and union representatives. However, protest leaders have refused participate in discussions with the committee, alleging that all four panel members are pro-government [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3].
India: Parliamentary panel questions Facebook India representatives on WhatsApp’ privacy terms
(lm) Executives of social networking giants Facebook and Twitter on January 21 fielded questions from the Indian Parliamentary Standing Committee on Information Technology about the platforms’ ban on former US President Donald Trump’s social media accounts and WhatsApp’s now-deferred privacy policy update. [Reuters] [Forbes India]
Facebook-owned WhatsApp this month kicked off a storm when it informed users it was preparing a new privacy policy, under which it could share limited user data, including phone number and location, with Facebook and its group firms. Prior to the hearing, India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology already asked Facebook to withdraw the updates, saying the new terms take away choice from Indian users. [The Straits Times]
Importantly, this is not the first time that Facebook has come under scrutiny from Indian authorities over its content moderation practices: The social media giant’s representatives were summoned by the same committee last September to report on allegations of deliberate omissions and inaction to allow anti-Muslim hate speech from politicians affiliated with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in order to secure its investment [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3, AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3].
Separately, Facebook India's Vice President and Managing Director, Ajit Mohan told the Supreme Court (SC) on January 20 that he was well within his rights to remain silent and not be compelled by the Peace and Harmony Committee of the Delhi Legislative Assembly. Last September, Facebook India and its senior official had appealed to India’s Supreme Court [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5] to challenge two notices served upon him by the committee which is investigating the company’s alleged role in the religious riots in the city earlier last year [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3, AiR No. 9, March/2020, 1]. [The Hindu]
Nepal: Election Commission refuses to give legitimacy to either faction of ruling Communist Party
(lm) The Election Commission (EC) refused on January 24 to give legitimacy to either faction of the ruling Communist Party (NCP), saying decisions taking by both sides failed to follow the Political Parties Act 2017 as well as the party statue. Therefore, the NCP continues to remain intact - technically and legally – albeit having practically split. [The Kathmandu Post]
Nepal last December plunged into a political crisis after Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli decided to dissolve the country’s lower house of parliament and to call for snap elections for next year – a controversial move amidst a prolonged tussle for power between him and his rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Since then, the NCP is effectively divided into two factions – one led by the prime minister and another by Dahal, with both factions staking claim on the NCP, which was born out of a post-election merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)].
Earlier the electoral body amended its rules to recognize the split in the NCP, as previous legal hurdles did not allow it to recognize a split in a party once general elections had been announced [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]. While the EC has not given any timeframe to announce its decision, both factions have since been approaching the EC time and again to prove their authenticity [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].
Nepal: Prime Minister Oli promises fair and impartial mid-term elections
(lm) Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli said promised that the upcoming-mid term elections would be organized in a fair, impartial and free manner, while addressing an event held on January 22 on the occasion of the 20th establishment day of the Armed Police Force (APF). [The Himalayan Times]
Throwing into doubt the political future of Nepal, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli last December recommended the dissolution of Parliament’s lower house. Nepal is now set to hold elections on April 30 and May 10, more than a year earlier than the expected vote in November 2022. [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]
Nepal: Dahal-Nepal faction holds mass protest in Kathmandu; expels Prime Minister Oli from NCP
(lm) Defying a ban on public gatherings, thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in Kathmandu on January 22 to protest against Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament and call for snap elections [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Organized by the faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) led by senior leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, the protests were the latest in a series of regular demonstrations against the prime minister [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. [Reuters]
While addressing a public gathering organized by the student wing of the now-defunct Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) (CPN-MC), Dahal insinuated that a violent movement was the need of the hour. Thus, it is worth remembering that Dahal led the CPN-MC’s decade long Maoist insurgency that ended in 2006, directing the military efforts of the party towards establishing areas of control, particularly in the mountainous regions and in western Nepal. [The Kathmandu Post]
Separately, factional leaders Dahal and Nepal also terminated the party membership of Prime Minister Oli. The decision was taken during a Standing Committee meeting held on January 24, after the prime minister failed to explain in writing the motives behind his decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament – a move that allegedly defied party rules, policies, and statue [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]. [The Himalayan Times]
Nepal: NCP faction of Prime Minister Oli to reconstitute party’s committee
(lm) In his capacity as factional leader of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has issued directives for immediate reconstitution of all party committees. Addressing a gathering of leading party workers on January 19, the prime minister also suggested that the party’s ideological line may be gradually revised. [The Himalayan Times]
Last November, Oli had initially made a push for replacing the ideological middle path both factions of the NCP had agreed to adopt during the post-election merger in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)], proposing the guiding principle of the ‘People’s Multiparty Democracy’ as the new party’s ideological line [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. Proclaimed in 1993 as an extension of Marxism-Leninism, ‘People’s Multiparty Democracy’ refers to the political line of the now-defunct Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML). This thought abandons the traditional idea of a revolutionary communist vanguard party in favor of a democratic multi-party system.
Maldives: Parliament passes bill to allow for elections during health emergency
(lm) The Maldives parliament on January 19 passed an amendment to the "Special Bill for the Local Council Elections 2020", paving the way for the country’s Election Commission (EC) to hold local council elections amid the state of public emergency. The same day, a civil court quashed a petition filed by opposition lawmakers demanding directions to the government for equal opportunity for campaigning. [South Asia Monitor]
Originally slated for April last year, the local elections got postponed indefinitely in May, after a State of Public Health Emergency was declared in the face of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Shortly thereafter, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih ratified an amendment to Article 231 of the Constitution, extending the terms of incumbent councilors. He also ratified legislation delineating the powers of council members who remained in office during the interim period to allow for the continued functioning of a decentralized government. [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]
Prior to the parliamentary session, the EC on January 20 revealed that it required an additional $3.3 million to hold the local council elections in line with the Health Protection Agency (HPA)'s guidelines. [The Edition]
Pakistan: Opposition alliance accuses ruling PTI of illicit campaign financing
(lm) The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on January 20 issued notices to all parties in parliament in a case pertaining to allegations that the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) fraudulently financed its election campaign. The previous day, leaders of the opposition alliance Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) [see latest AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3] gathered outside the ECP to protest the “unacceptable delay” in the case. [Hindustan Times] [Al Jazeera]
In 2014, a founding member of the PTI had filed a petition with the ECP, alleging the party had illicitly received funds from foreigners. Arguing that the commission does not have the authority to examine the accounts of any political party, the PTI has since approached the Islamabad High Court six times to stay the hearing of the petition. Further, the PTI filed similar petitions against the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with the ECP. Last week, the PTI admitted raising campaign funds through foreign accounts, but blamed illegalities on its agents in the United States without specifying who they were. [The Express Tribune]
Speaking after the hearing, the petitioner said he had no confidence in the (ECP)’s scrutiny committee, alleging that the PTI had submitted fake documents. [Geo News]
Separately, the ECP on January 18 suspended the membership of 154 members of the country's Senate, national and provincial assemblies after they failed to submit statements of their assets and liabilities. The lawmakers will remain suspended until the submission of their financial statements.
Pakistan: Government ready to review new social media rules, says Attorney General
(lm) The federal government has signaled its willingness to review its new social media policy introduced last year, despite criticism from human rights activists and organizations. During a hearing at the Islamabad High Court (IHC), Pakistan’s Attorney General said on January 25 the government would revisit the rules in consultation with relevant stakeholders. The court later adjourned the hearing of the case till February 26. [Dawn] [The Express Tribune]
In December the IHC had admitted a petition filed by the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ) against the Removal and Blocking of Unlawful Online Content (Procedure, Oversight and Safeguards), Rules 2020 [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. The new rules – framed under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act 2016 (PECA) – require a social media company to remove, suspend or disable access to any online content within 24 hours, and in emergency situations, within six hours, at the Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA)’s request.
Pakistan: Authorities seize property of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
(lm) The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on January 19 revealed that it had seized properties of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The former prime minister is accused of tacitly approving the illegal allotment of land when he was serving as Chief Minister of Punjab more than 30 years ago. Sharif, who has been residing in London since November 2019, is considered by the courts to have absconded. [The Express Tribune]
The former prime minister is facing several corruption charges in Pakistan. He is also facing sedition charges for accusing the military of political interference [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2, AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].
Sri Lanka: President appoints commission to look into war crime investigations of previous committees
(lm) Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has appointed a 3-member Commission of Inquiry (CoI) to look into findings of preceding committees appointed to investigate allegations government troops committed war crimes during the decades-long civil war with the Tamil separatist group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Appointed on January 21, the commission was given 6 months to produce a final report. [The Gazette of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka] [The Straits Times] [ColomboPage]
Context and timing of the announcement are noteworthy: In March, the UN Human Rights Council (UN HCR) will consider an important report by the High Commissioner on human rights, reconciliation and accountability in Sri Lanka. Specifically, it will consider the steps taken to implement the Council’s landmark 2015 resolution 30/1, although the government of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa last January withdrew its co-sponsorship from the resolution [see AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4, AiR (3/3/2019)]. Observers expect a bloc of countries known as the Core Group on Sri Lanka –the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, North Macedonia and Montenegro – to present a new resolution during the upcoming meeting. [World Socialist Web Site]
What is more, in an unprecedented show of unity, Sri Lanka’s major Tamil political parties last week signed a joint statement, calling on members states of the UN HRC to declare that Colombo has failed to establish a judicial mechanism to assess violations of humanitarian international law committed during the civil war. [AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]
Between 2006 and 2013 alone, there have been at least a dozen domestic commissions of inquiry, often created to forestall international pressure on human rights. However, their findings have often gone unpublished and none has led to prosecution. Instead, successive leaders have even promoted some perpetrators of war crimes to top positions within civilian and military institutions [see e.g., AiR No. 7, February/2020, 3]. [Centre for Policy Alternatives]
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Indonesia: ISIS support declined
(nd) According to a recent analysis conducted by the think tank Institute of Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), support for the Islamic State (ISIS) in Indonesia declined in 2020. Cited reasons for the decline were an improvement in law enforcement, which heightens the individual’s stake and the collapse of ISIS. So far, fears of economic downturn fueling extremist action did not materialize amid the ongoing pandemic.
While the threat was referred to as manageable, militants still resort to creating small “pop up” cells to conduct targeted operations, with the online network enabling quick substitution of a lost leader. The recruitment would still target young people at schools or in mosques, which is why the government’s biggest task is to prevent this regeneration. As part of this, the report strongly suggests to avoid deaths of suspect since vengeance was the most powerful motive for terrorist attacks. [South China Morning Post]
Indonesia: Stepping up efforts to counter extremism
(nd) A presidential decree was enacted early January to allow members of the public to police religious extremism. The decree was deemed necessary due to a lack in sufficient police staff. It was commented as a “soft approach” to tackle violent extremism by involving the public at an early stage. Citizens shall be trained in “community policing”, which was presented as empowerment and part of democracy. Critics say the public’s involvement in policing could cause polarization and tension in the society. It was considered conservative Muslims might perceive it as being targeted by the government. With specialized units to counter extremism, for example the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), there was no need for such a step.
The move comes amid concentrated efforts to fight extremism. Last month, the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), a hardline group led by Muhammad Rizieq Shihab, was banned for disrupting peace and security. Rizieq returned from self-exile last year and was arrested in December for violating coronavirus restrictions. A police shooting of six FPI members in December is still being investigated. Additionally, revisions of the electoral law foresee to ban former members of the domestic branch of Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) from running in elections. HTI was banned in 2017 for promoting a Sharia-based state, rejecting Indonesia’s “Pancasila” ideology. [Benar News]
A recent reshuffle of the minister of Religious Affairs is seen as a continuation of the current administration’s harsh measures against Islamist groups. Retired General Fachrul Razi, was replaced by Yaqut Cholil Qoumas from the National Awakening Party. His party is affiliated with the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization. The position is traditionally awarded to a cleric or politician affiliated with NU. NU did not support Razi’s policy initiatives, which is why his term was considered ineffective. The main priorities of Qoumas’ term are combating Islamic radicalism and protecting the rights of religious minorities. Due to their vital support to ban both HTI and FPI, NU’s perceived one-sided actions have draw criticism for not being committed to tolerance and pluralism. Another statement of Qoumas, to review the status of Ahmadi Muslim minority and reaffirm their religious and civil rights, was followed by a strong pushback from conservative Islamists. Ahmadi Muslims were declared a deviant sect in 2005 in a religious ruling (fatwa) by the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI). Qoumas subsequently stated he only intends to restore their citizen rights, leaving the fatwa untouched, which is perceived at the root of the discrimination. [East Asia Forum]
Indonesia: American graphic designer deported for tweet on LGBT and visa access
(nd) American national, Kristen Gray, residing in Bali was deported after tweeting the island was “LGBT friendly” and easily accessible amid the pandemic. It prompted a backlash on social media about western privilege and a lack of cultural awareness. The LGBT community in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country faces discrimination and sometimes violence. According to a Pew research center Survey, only 9% of Indonesians agreed that homosexuality is acceptable. The decision to deport Gray was based on pictures shared on her Twitter account, assuming Bali was “queer friendly” and accessible to foreigners despite the Covid-19 pandemic, while Indonesia has tightened border restrictions in order to curb to spread of the virus. Also, it is investigated in possible violation of tax laws by working in Indonesia. Also, two Russian social media influencers were deported for driving a motorcycle into a diving spot in Bali. Other incidents were reported in the last years, citing a declining quality of tourists and criticizing the government for regardless of that pushing such mass tourism. Picking up on Gray’s comments on her deportation, media report had it linked mainly to her statement on the LGBT community.
Bali became a hub for so-called digital nomads, referring to individuals who work remotely and in multiple countries. [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2]
Indonesia: Merger of Islamic banks
(nd) President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo announced the establishment of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), which shall become the country’s largest Islamic bank. It is a merger of state-owned Islamic banks Bank BRI Syariah, Bank Syariah Mandiri, and Bank BNI Syariah, which now has an asset value of Rp 239.56 trillion (around $17 billion). Hopes are for BSI to rise among the world's top 10 Islamic banks by 2025. The merger is a strategy to catch up with the sharia economy, whose development includes countries without a Muslim-majority population, for example Japan, Thailand, UK, and the US. [Jakarta Globe]
Laos: Lookout on the country’s future set-up
(py) Last week, incumbent Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith was announced Secretary-General of the Communist Lao People's Revolutionary Party (LPRP) in its 11th Party Congress. [AiR No. 3, January/ 2021, 3] Following national elections in February, the new government be will be formally revealed, with the other appointments of this congress revealing the direction of the upcoming politics. The positions are distributed in the order of a ranking within the politburo, making it likely that current Vice President Phankham Viphavanh will become the new prime minister. Other appointments show both a heightened emphasis on foreign relations in future politics as well as an influential stronghold of powerful political families. To the already two members of both the Siphandone and Phomvihane family, another member will each be added, signifying how powerful families in Laos still have significant clout over the country's political future.
As Prime Minister, Thongloun promised to fight corruption but did not go through with it, making it unlikely he will do is as Secretary General. Due to tight family relations through marriage, this cleanup would not benefit anybody’s interests. Laos’s debt to China has reached 45% of its GDP, with the Covid-19 pandemic additionally disabling tourism. As an economic outlook, Laos builds a number of hydroelectric dams on the Mekong to become the “Battery of Southeast Asia”, which is opposed by neighboring states, threatening a rise of regional tensions. [East Asia Forum]
Laos to receive Russian vaccines
(py) Russia provided the first 1000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccines to Laos's government after both countries agreed to provide Laos with 2 million doses of vaccines, covering roughly 25% of the Lao populations. Laos already received 2000 doses of Covid-19 vaccine from China and has started inoculating some 200 volunteers and medical workers. [Laotian times] [Russian Embassy in Laos]
Malaysia: Opposition leader files lawsuit against suspension of parliament
(nd) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim filed a lawsuit against Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and the federal government at the High Court, Malaysia’s apex court. The motion is contesting Muhyiddin’s advice to King Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah to approve Rule 14 of the Emergency (Essential Powers) Ordinance 2021, which suspends parliament during the emergency period.
The King declared a state of emergency early January, which lasts until August 1, in order to contain the spread of Covid-19. Critics said the emergency was not necessary to fight the pandemic but a move by Muhyiddin to cover up his crumbling parliamentary majority and cling to power. A previous request by Muhyiddin to the King to declare a state of emergency was dismissed late last year. Following the King’s declaration, Muhyiddin stated that parliamentary sittings and elections are suspended during the emergency.
Malaysia has reported a total of 186,849 Covid-19 cases so far, 41,076 of those considered active, and 689 fatalities. [Channel News Asia]
Malaysia: Increasing repression of LGBT
(dql) Human Rights Watch, in a thorough paper on LGBT rights in Malaysia denounced attempt to strengthen criminal penalties against LGBT in Malaysia as a latest action against LGBT in a series of moves under Prime Minister Muhyididin Yassin’s Perikitan Nasional government. Prior, the deputy minister for religious affairs in the Prime Minister’s Department proposed to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act (Act 355) to establish harsher sentences for same-sex conduct than the current maximum Sharia sentence permitted under federal law. Moreover, the deputy minister also proposed asa new Sharia offense to change one’s gender and to
produce or share social media content deemed obscene and indecent, including images of non-normative gender expression.
Besides, the federal penal code state Sharia laws, which are enforced by state Islamic Religious Departments and tried in Sharia courts, are applicable to Muslims in Malaysia. At current, all 13 states and the federal territory criminalize same-sex relations and gender nonconformity already. Moreover, section 377 of the federal penal code punishes any form of anal or oral sex with up to 20 years in prison and mandatory caning.
Concerning Sharia courts, Act 355, adopted in 1965 to safeguard Malaysia’s – then - secular character, limited the sentences that can be imposed by Sharia courts to the imposition of maximum sentences of one year in prison and a fine of up to RM 1,000 (US$250). The act was amended in 1984, however, increasing the maximum sentence to three years in prison, fines of up to RM 5,000 (US$1,240), and caning of up to six strokes.
Before 2018, Malaysian courts rarely imposed caning sentences, which are a form of torture under international law, for same-sex conduct which slowly changed since then with a 2018 case against two women accused of attempted same-sex relations and a 2019 case where, the Selangor Sharia court sentenced five men to fines, imprisonment, and caning.
The latest Selangor case, however, led to a constitutional challenge which is pending before the Federal Court. [Human Rights Watch]
Myanmar: Villagers agree to relocation from Chinese run copper mine
(lf) Villagers who live close to a copper mine jointly run by a Chinese company (China Wanbao Engineering Company) and the military-owned Myanmar Economic Holdings Company (MEHC), have agreed to relocate. This ends a violent dispute between the villagers on one side and the MEHC/ China Wanbao Engineering Company and the police on the other that started in 2012 after villagers complained about not receiving adequate compensation for their land. In the same year, during a peaceful protest 70 monks and 10 civilians were harmed through the use of highly toxic white phosphorus by security forces, followed by the killing of a female protestor who was shot in 2014 by police forces. The villagers have agreed to relocate after an agreement was found with the Chinese company. [Irrawaddy]
Myanmar to sign development agreement for a power plant
(lf) For the development of a power plant in Yangon, the state-controlled Electric Power Generation Enterprise signed a contract with TTCL Power Myanmar Company Limited, a subsidiary of Thailand’s TTCL Public Company Limited, which, in turn, is a joint venture between Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited (ITD), and Japan’s Toyo Engineering Corporation. The estimated investment volume is US$685 million (911 billion kyats).
The ITD is currently facing legal dispute with Myanmar with respect to the Dawai Special Economic Zone. Myanmar terminated the development contract with ITD after a loss in confidence through breaches in the contract and a constant delay of the project. ITD plans to challenge these allegations.
At current, only half of Myanmar’s population is connected to the national grid, which is the lowest rate for any ASEAN country. In recent years, electricity consumption has increased by 15-19% annually. To meet this demand, the National League for Democracy has focused on liquid natural gas (LNG) and small dams. While plants can be built rather fast, the LNG cannot be produced domestically due to a lack in technology and the high expenses for the production. [Irrawaddy 1] [Irrawaddy 2] [See also AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]
Philippines: Nissan to end assembly work
(nd) Japanese auto manufacturer Nissan announced to end its car assembly operations in the Philippines, making 133 assembly workers redundant. The reason cited was to "optimize production" amid global recession. Nissan has closed plants and laid off some 42,500 workers globally since 2019. The current move was expected since sale numbers for the assembled Almera model were low.
Among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Philippine automotive market is one of the most open, with locally assembled products making up only 7%. As a comparison, Thailand imposes a 80% Most Favored Nation tariff rate on built-up units from outside the ASEAN bloc, while Indonesia has a total of only 7% of imports. [Rappler]
Singapore: Latest challenge to section 377A
(nd) Three Singaporean activists challenged the decision by the High Court last year, which upheld section 377A of the criminal code, penalizing male sexual intercourse. The law stems from the British colonial rule and is rarely enforced. According to the activists, the law breaches the right to equality before the law, the right to life and personal liberty and the right to freedom of expression protected by the constitution. A previous challenge of the law was rejected in 2014. Singapore has an active LGBT scene, with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last year inviting LGBT people to work in Singapore.
Regionally though, socially conservative attitudes remain. Myanmar, Malaysia and Brunei have laws banning sexual relationships between men. In Indonesia, raids targeting LGBT people were on the rise in recent years. Contrarily, the Supreme Court in India has overturned the British rule on criminalizing male homosexual sex. Taiwan was the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage in 2019. [South China Morning Post]
Thailand: New royalist party formed
(nd) After last year’s anti-establishment protests came with unprecedented calls to fully reform the country’s monarchy, a hitherto rather insignificant royalist civil society group has decided to transform into a political party under its former name "Thai Pakdee" (Loyal Thai) “to defend the royal institution”. The leader of the previously informal citizen group, Warong Dechgitvigrom, who will serve as the new party’s leader, has announced that his party considers as its antagonists the oppositional Move Forward Party, and its associated Progressive Movement Group, as well as the anti-establishment protesters, who, he claimed, were out to topple Thailand’s monarchy.
Whereas, most representatives of the anti-establishment protesters would deny this goal in public, their stated reform demands would, however, amount to a complete reform of the monarchy that would turn Thailand from a country with the monarchy as the single most powerful institution into a ceremonial parliamentary monarchy.
The royalist group’s decision to form a political party was criticized by former Thammasat University law lecturer and politician Piyabutr Saengkanokkul from the Progressive Movement group, their declared political antagonist, to inevitably lead to associating the monarchy with domestic politics. [Bangkok Post]
While the argument refers to the constitutional principle that the monarchy shall remain above politics, the oppositional group Piyabutr is belonging to itself seems to struggle for exactly the right to address the monarchy in political discourse. Moreover, to protect the King and the existing monarchical form of government is a constitutionally prescribed civic duty (section 50), which makes it rather unlikely that the argument will prevent the new party from operating. After another oppositional party, the Thai Raksa Chart Party, has been disbanded for fielding a sister of the King as its prime ministerial candidate with the argument this would draw the monarchy unlawfully into politics in 2019, Piyabutr’s argument might, however, not be meant as a valid legal one but as a hint to what the opposition perceives as double standards in the handling of the “above politics” principle.
The foundation of a new royalist party which envisions the active defense of the royal institution against a current challenge as its main goal, might however, provide a double-edged litmus test for the cause it has adopted if the anti-establishment movement gains momentum and traction again in 2021. Until now, active and visibly displayed public support for the goal to counter anti-establishment protests remained rather thin.
Thailand: Early-stage abortion legalized
(nd) Following deliberations in December, the House of Representatives passed an amendment to the Criminal Code to legalize early-stage abortions until the 12th week when performed by a qualified medical practitioner and in line with the criteria set by the Medical Council of Thailand (MCT).
The MCT states that an abortion can be sought if it threats the mother's physical and/or emotional health; if the fetus is known to have abnormalities; and/or if the pregnancy is the result of a sexual assault.
A violation of the law is punishable with a jail term of up to six months, a maximum fine of 10,000 baht or both. A more liberal draft by the oppositional Move Forward Party (MFP) was not admitted by the House. [Bangkok Post]
While abortion is a considerable problem from the perspective of more conservative Buddhism, the Thai society faces a high number of underage single mothers who often struggle hard with their situation. Meanwhile, the Catholic Church in Thailand which normally keeps a rather low public profile condemned the bill as “an immoral law.” [Khaosod English]
Thailand: Lese majeste charge against Thanathorn
(nd) High-profile opposition figure and former leader of the now-dissolved Future Forward Party Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit was charged under Section 112 for defaming the monarchy. Thanathorn criticized the government for mishandling its vaccination campaign, for the government strategy is almost purely relying on Siam Bioscience company which is wholly owned by the Crown Property Bureau, which manages the king’s personal investment and assets.
The government has ordered 61 million doses AstraZeneca's vaccine, which is manufactured by Siam Bioscience, and 2 million doses of a vaccine made by China's Sinovac Biotech. Thanathorn argued the deal was non-transparent and Siam Bioscience – as a company with no prior experience in making vaccines - was given an unfair advantage over other companies, instead of negotiating multiple deals to ensure a quick rollout. AstraZeneca and Siam Bioscience declined to comment, while a government spokeswoman denied the prosecution was politically motivated. The comments were made at an event by the Progressive Movement titled “Royal Vaccine: Who Benefits and Who Doesn’t?” that was broadcast on Facebook Live, with the group saying section “112 is being used again as a political tool.” [Bangkok Post] [Khaosod English 1]
After the government had sought to indict Thanatorn for lese majeste, the popular opposition politician defended his criticism with no sign of backing down. The minister of heath who also serves as Deputy Prime Minister responded then in for the current government which is used to react rather harsh on criticism to its performance. [Khaosod English 2]
Meanwhile, bail was refused in a historic 43-years-jail sentence for defamation of the monarchy. Between late 2014 and early 2015, the 64-year-old woman shared audio files featuring critical remarks about King Rama IX and then-Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn on the internet. She was facing multiple counts for each share and the lese majeste laws have a minimum penalty of 3 years per count. Her initial sentence of 87 years was lowered to 43 years due to pleading guilty. The activist producer of the content was convicted in 2015 for one count, creating the material, to two and a half years in prison. [Khaosod English 3] See also AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3] [Khaosod English 4]
Thailand: Opposition to file motion of no-confidence
(nd) A coalition of opposition parties led by Pheu Thai Party filed a motion of no-confidence against 10 cabinet ministers, including Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, which was supported by 208 MPs. Parliamentary officials will take seven days to check the conditions for a constitutional motion, which then will be placed on the House agenda as an urgent matter. [Bangkok Post]
Vietnam: Communist Party congress to pick new leadership, approve future economic policies
(lm) Vietnam's ruling Communist Party (CPV) gathered on January 25 for its 13th National Congress - the first since 2016 – to approve future policies and select new leaders amid talks over whether the current party chief will stay. Over the course of nine days, the 1,587 delegates will elect the 200-member Central Committee, which will choose between 15 and 19 of its members to serve on the Politburo, the highest party body. [Deutsche Welle] [BBC]
A week before the congress, the list of candidates for the politburo’s offices emerged, despite threats of punishment against leakers of what authorities calls secret information. Decided upon during the CPV’s 15th plenary session – the last under the outgoing leadership group – the list has circulated widely on social media and in other reports. [Radio Free Asia]
Against all expectations, incumbent General Secretary of the CPV and President of Vietnam, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, is set to continue as party chief. Trọng, who suffered a stroke last April and has reportedly not fully recovered since, was widely expected to step down in the run-up to the all-important congress [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1].
What is more, Trọng is one of two designated “special cases” that have already passed the customary age for retirement, indicating that the party’s politburo could not reach a consensus about who to recommend as his successor. The other person earmarked as “special case” is incumbent Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, a technocratic and non-ideological candidate [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3], who is likely to succeed Trọng as president.
Vietnam: Facebook user gets seven-year term for ridiculing leadership
(lm) A Vietnamese court sentenced an activist to seven years in prison on January 20 over her Facebook posts addressing issues deemed sensitive in the one-party communist state, including proposed laws on special economic zones and cybersecurity, as well as environmental issues. [Voice of America]
The sentencing come as authorities in Vietnam’s capital Hanoi further tightened security in the city ahead of the ruling Communist Party (CPV)’s 13th National Congress, a meeting held every five years to approve future policy and select new leaders [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. City authorities on January 21 directed officials to resolve outstanding cases of petitioner complaints at Hanoi’s central office, calling on police at the same time to disperse large public gatherings likely to cause security problems during the politically sensitive event. [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
It’s structural, stupid – Sino-US tensions to remain definitional under Biden
(dql) In a tit-for-tat response to recent US sanctions on Chinese officials and entities over Chinese policies and actions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, China announced similar sanctions against 28 high-ranking US officials of the Trump administration, described by the Chinese Foreign Ministry as “anti-China politicians,” who have “designed, pushed forward, and carried out a set of insane actions, which have severely interfered in China’s domestic affairs, harmed China’s interest, hurt the feelings of the Chinese people, and severely harmed Chinese-US relations.” Among those sanctioned are outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former White House advisor Peter Navarro, former national security advisors John Bolton and Robert O'Brien, China strategist Matthew Pottinger, and former White House advisor Steve Bannon. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China 1, in Chinese] [CNN]
The announcement was made only a few minutes after Joe Biden was sworn in as US President and shortly after Pompeo officially declared China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang as “genocide,” and a “systematic attempt to destroy Uyghurs by the Chinese party-state" on his last full day in office. [U.S. News]
At the same time, China’s Foreign Ministry expressed its hope that the new Biden administration would “view China and China-U.S. relations in an objective and rational manner,” and “bring back China-U.S. relations back onto the track of sound and stable development.” [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China 2] The remarks echo Beijing’s efforts to find common ground with Washington in the areas of climate change and the anti-pandemic fight as starting points of a reset of bi-lateral relations. [Aljazeera] [Wall Street Journal]
In one of his first moves as President, Biden signed executive orders to return to the Paris climate agreement and to hold the US exit from the World Health Organization. [The Guardian] [Deutsche Welle]
Meanwhile, Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken notably said that – while he did not agree with all of Trump’s methods –, he still believed that the former President was right in taking a tougher approach to China. He also confirmed Pompeo’s assessment of the Chinese Communist Party’s genocide in Xinjiang, indicating a thorny path towards Beijing’s hope for a return to “sound and stable” relations between the two countries. [Reuters]
Furthermore, the US Department of State issued a statement on Saturday expressing concern over China’s ongoing attempts to intimidate Taiwan and urging China to "engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan's democratically elected representatives." It reassured “rock-solid” commitment to Taiwan, which “contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region.” [Focus Taiwan]
The statement was made on the same day a US aircraft carrier group entered the South China Sea while an incursion of People’s Liberation Army bombers and fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone was reported by the Taiwanese government. [Reuters]
The take-away is: While foreign policy Trumpism is over with a last jab from Beijing, US-China tensions are thus revealed once more to be inherently structural, this time by the just inaugurated Biden administration.
In a latest development, Chinese President Xi Jinping – speaking at the virtually held World Economic Forum in Davos – warned global leaders against starting a “new Cold War” and called for unity in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. [Aljazeera] More analysis on the World Economic Forum in the next AiR issue.
China: Chinese coast guard effectively transforms into a full-blown military unit
(dql) China passed a law last Friday that allows the country’s heavily equipped coast guard to “take all necessary measures, including the use of weapons when national sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon by foreign organizations or individuals at sea.”
Effectively transforming the coast guard into a military unit with an implied mission to dominate disputed waters such as the South China Sea, the law identifies the scenarios under which different kind of weapons – handheld, shipborne or airborne – can be used: The coast guard is allowed to demolish other countries’ structures built on Chinese-claimed reefs and to board and inspect foreign vessels in waters claimed by China, while it is also permitted to create temporary exclusion zones “as needed” to stop other vessels and personnel from entering. [Aljazeera]
The law comes with US President Joe Biden being only two days in office, setting the tone with regard of the South China Sea dispute, signaling China`s determination to achieve effective control of waters it counts as its strategic front yard in the post-Trump era.
China-Japan relations: Tensions rise amid Chinese activities in disputed waters
(dql) Japan has submitted a note verbale to the United Nations to express its rejection of China’s baseline claims in the South China Sea and to denounce Beijing’s efforts to limit the freedom of navigation and overflight in this strategically important waterway.
With its recent note, Japan joins a group of countries which have recently taken such a move including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. [United Nations] [Yahoo News] [Radio Free Asia]
The note on the South China Sea was followed by a Japanese protest against China over the latter’s actions in waters surrounding disputed islets in the East China Sea, demanding China to stop intruding into Japanese waters and harassing Japanese fishing boats in the area. [Stars and Stripes]
China to tighten strategic control over rare-earths
(dql) China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that China will amend its current laws on rare-earth metals and expand regulations, which thus far focus on the production stage, to the entire industry chain, covering refining, product transport and export.
As the new rules provides Beijing with more control over the supply of rare earths as strategic resources observers view the legislative move as China’s latest response to Sino-US tensions. Crucial for high-tech manufacturing, including electronics and defense equipment, China accounts for 60% of worldwide rare-earth production. while the US imports 80% of rare earths from China. [Nikkei Asian Review]
China-Australia relations: Canberra's fierce stance
(dql) Amid heightened diplomatic tensions between China and Australia over disputes on various fronts – including trade, human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and the coronavirus origin – Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has repeated his robust stance on relationship-saving discussions with China, saying that while Australia “will remain absolutely open and available to meet, to discuss, any of the issues that have been identified,” those discussions “won't take place on the base of any sort of pre-emptive concessions on Australia's part on those matters.” [Yahoo News]
Furthermore, within the Morrison government a split has emerged with members of the National Party, the junior coalition partner demanding protectionist policies in the trade war with China, including imposing tariffs and expanding subsidies to protect domestic manufacturers. The Liberal Party, however, warned that such policies would “be against the national interest to abandon free and open trade.” [The Guardian]
Australia’s Defense Ministry, meanwhile, announced that it will invest 770 million USD in naval capabilities to boost its maritime security involving the development of advanced guided weapons to equip the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) with long-range anti-ship missiles, extended range surface-to-air missiles, advanced lightweight torpedoes, and maritime land strike capabilities. [Sydney Morning Herald]
Japan-US relations: Defense Ministers reaffirm defense cooperation over Senkaku Islands
(dql) Japan’s Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and his newly appointed US counterpart Lloyd Austin agreed during a phone talk that the Japanese controlled, Chinese claimed Senkaku Islands fall under the security treaty between both countries which was concluded 1951 and amended 1960, establishing the military alliance between Japan and the US. In a thinly veiled attack against China, both Ministers reaffirmed that they “oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East and South China seas.”
Both defense chiefs also reasserted the importance of the Japanese-US alliance as well as cooperation with partners outside the region for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, they also agreed to work towards "complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization of North Korea.
They confirmed their countries' determination to prevent North Korea from evading sanctions through such means as illegal ship-to-ship transfers and direct shipments of goods banned under U.N. Security Council resolutions. [Japan Today]
For a discussion on how an anti-China and pro-Japan bias on US side “has led to the increasing acceptability of poor conflict management, pushing us toward an unquestioning alliance with Japan that further heightens China’s threat perceptions,” see Su-Mei Ooi in [The Diplomat].
See also the book "Japan Rearmed" by Sheila A. Smith, providing an extensive and intimate account of U.S.-Japan relations. Smith argues that "the Japanese government is reconsidering its dependence on the United States amidst increasing threats from North Korean missiles and Chinese maritime activity around the Senkaku islands." [Asia Media]
Japan-South Korea relations: President Moon Jae-in seeks diplomatic solution in forced labor compensation issue
(dql) South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in described the possible sales of Japanese companies' assets to compensate groups of South Koreans over wartime labor as "undesirable" for bilateral ties between South Korea and Japan, adding that he would prioritize a “diplomatic solution” between both countries “that is also satisfactory to the plaintiffs.”
His statement comes at a time when South Korean plaintiffs who won damages suits against two Japanese companies in South Korea's Supreme Court in 2018 over forced labor during World War II, are taking legal steps to seek sales of assets of the companies in South Korea to enforce the compensation payments. IT comes also shortly after a South Korea court in a ruling earlier this month ordered the Japanese government to pay compensation to South Korean ‘comfort women’ during World War II.
Moon’s remark is seen by analysts as an attempt to ease high running tensions between Seoul and Tokyo over the issues of forced labor and ‘comfort women’ during Japan’s rule over the Korean peninsula from 1910-1945, as it marks the first time that he indicates opposition to a legal solution of the matter. Tokyo has thus far uncompromisingly refused to accept any of the recent related decisions of South Korean courts, arguing that all compensation issues had been settled by the 1965 bilateral treaty. [Kyodo News]
Taiwan-EU: European Union passes resolutions comprising pro-Taiwan clauses
(nm) The European Parliament (EP) passed two resolutions calling on its member states to “re-examine their engagement policies with Taiwan” and to continue supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations.
Both the resolution on the implementation of the Common Security and Defence Policy and the resolution on the implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy expressed serious concerns about recent tensions in the Taiwan Strait as well as about “China’s increasingly provocative military maneuvers aimed at Taiwan,” urging both sides to resort to peaceful means in resolving their differences. [Focus Taiwan] [Taiwan News 1]
Meanwhile, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen expressed her administration’s interest in negotiating a trade deal with the United Kingdom which has left the European Union’s single market and customs union. Newly appointed British Representative to Taiwan, John Dennis, who assumed office early in January, has pledged to develop ties with Taiwan by “building on our already powerful links in trade and investment, science and innovation, climate change, education and on shared values.” [Taiwan News 2]
Cross-Strait relations: Record numbers of Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone
(nm) China sent a record number of warplanes into the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, with a total of 13 warplanes entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Saturday, followed by 15 military planes on Sunday, making it the 20th day in January that China’s military has sent aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), the planes involved in Saturday’s maneuver were one anti-submarine aircraft, eight bombers, and four Chinese fighter jets, while 12 fighters, two anti-submarine aircraft, and a reconnaissance plane entered the ADIZ on Sunday.
Although such drills have been common in recent years, China has lately stepped up its military maneuvers, in a show of force to the incoming US Biden administration, signalling Beijing’s plans to maintain pressure on Taiwan.
Echoing this, Wang Yang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s top leadership body, demanded in his speech before officials of the Taiwan Affairs Office that China must “use the increasing strengths and significant advantages in our system effectively when handling Taiwan affairs,” and “resolutely curb” any forces calling for Taiwan’s independence. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Focus Taiwan 2] [South China Morning Post]
Sunday’s intrusion came after the Theodore Roosevelt, a US aircraft carrier, entered the South China Sea on Saturday, an undertaking described by the US Navy as “routine operations” to “ensure freedom of the seas.” Also on Saturday, the US Department of State issued a statement calling on China to “cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives,” adding “We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Indo-Pacific region – and that includes deepening our ties with democratic Taiwan.”
In response to the intrusion, Taiwan’s military tasked airborne alert sorties, issued radio warnings and deployed air defence missiles to monitor the activity, according to the MND. [The New York Times, $] [DW]
US-Taiwan relations: Taiwan’s representative to the United States attends Biden’s inauguration
(nm) Taiwan’s representative to the United States, Hsiao Bi-khim, attended the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, making her the first person in that position to receive an official invitation to a presidential inauguration since the US and Taiwan have severed formal diplomatic ties in 1979. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Taiwan News 1]
Hours before the inauguration, China had flown a military plane into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), which was met by Taiwan’s military with dispatching jet fighters, issuing radio warnings, and tracking the aircraft with air defense missile systems. [Taiwan News 2]
In light of the inauguration, chairman of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, Johnny Chiang, in contrast, vowed to commit to greater engagement with the US, based on the KMT’s “pro-US while friendly to China” principle. At the same time, he pointed out that Taiwan will not be so easily used as a tool of “offensive diplomacy” against China, should US-Sino relations further deteriorate under President Biden. [Focus Taiwan 2]
As – in defiance of Beijing’s opposition – the former Trump administration had greatly stepped up support for Taiwan in its last weeks in office – planning official visits, pledging economic cooperation, lifting restrictions on interaction guidelines – a shift in US administration has been carefully observed in Taiwan. According to a number of Taiwanese scholars and political figures, President Biden is expected to take a more measured approach to Beijing, likely focussed on preventing escalating tensions, and more focussed on domestic issues. At his confirmation hearing, Biden’s pick to head the US Department of State, Anthony Blinken, confirmed that there has been “a strong and long bipartisan commitment to Taiwan” in the US, adding that part of this commitment “is making sure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself against aggression.” [Focus Taiwan 3] [Focus Taiwan 4] [The New York Times, $]
In a similar move, the director of the U.S. Health Department’s Office of Global Affairs, Garret Grigsby, also supported Taiwan at a World Health Organization (WHO) Executive Board meeting last week, highlighting “the important contributions Taiwan could make to these discussions [pandemic emergency responses] as well as other aspects of COVID-19 response if they were allowed to participate fully as an observer to WHO’s technical work.” [Taiwan News 3]
India among top 10 hit by climate change
(lm) India ranked seventh in a list of countries most affected by the devastating impacts of climate change in 2019, according to a study published on January 25 by environmental organization Germanwatch. Over the past 20 years, over 475,000 people lost their lives as a direct result of more than 11,000 extreme weather events globally and losses amounted to around US $2.56 trillion (in purchasing power parities). Eight of the 10 countries hardest-hit between 2000 and 2019 are poorer nations. [Germanwatch]
The Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) is based on data from the German reinsurance company Munich Re. It compares the number of deaths and property damage caused by extreme weather to the number of inhabitants and the gross domestic product of the country in which it strikes. It does not, however, consider slow-onset events such as rising sea levels, glacier melting or ocean warming and acidification.
In 2019, the South Asian summer monsoon continued for a month longer than normal, with 110 percent of the long-period average being recorded by the end of September. Flooding caused by the heavy rain was responsible for 1,800 deaths across 14 Indian states and led to the displacement of 1.8 million people. Overall, 11.8 million people were affected by the intense monsoon with the economic damage estimated at $10 billion. [Business Standard] [Hindustan Times]
India, China hold 16-hour long inconclusive talks to resolve border dispute
(lm) A 16-hour marathon meeting between India and China to resolve the ongoing border dispute and thinning of forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh ended on January 25. The eighth and last round of the talks had taken place on November 6 during which both sides broadly discussed creating no-patrol zones, pulling back tanks and artillery, and using drones to verify the withdrawal [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. [The Hindu] [Hindustan Times] [The Straits Times]
Notwithstanding periodic hopes for a resolution, however, several rounds of diplomatic and military talks have so far made little headway in deflating tensions over the disputed border. But what is more, frontline deployments of both sides remain unchanged, with more than 100,000 soldiers of both armies facing winter conditions [see latest AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2].
Recognizing that Beijing has an immense military advantage, observers suggest that India is stalling for time, privily accepting that a diplomatic solution is unlikely. With both armies locked into the prospect of a long watch in the high mountains [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], the Indian Army’s performance and its sustenance through this winter may be the critical factor for New Delhi’s plans to deal with the Chinese aggression in eastern Ladakh.
United States to continue elevating its defense partnership with India under new Biden administration
(lm) During his confirmation hearing on January 19, the new US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, said he would continue to build on the “strong defense cooperation” with India and ensure that the militaries of the two countries can collaborate on shared interests.
Further elaborating, Austin also said he would seek to elevate the bilateral defense cooperation through existing regional multilateral engagements, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition of Japan, India, Australia and the United States. [The Wire] [The Straits Times]
India starts construction on power project, despite objections from Pakistan
(lm) India‘s government on January 20 approved a $720 million investment for a run-of-the-river hydroelectric power station on the Chenab River in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory. Formed by the confluence of two rivers, Chandra and Bhaga, the Chenab River is a major river that flows in India and Pakistan. Islamabad has routinely opposed the construction out of fears that New Delhi could use the reservoirs to create deliberate and artificial water shortage or cause flooding in Pakistan. [livemint]
Pakistan has repeatedly raised its concerns with the World Bank, stating that India's project was not in accordance with the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a water-distribution treaty brokered by finance institution to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. Signed in 1960, the Treaty allocates the Chenab River to Pakistan for exploitation, while India is entitled to use its water for domestic and agricultural uses or for "non-consumptive" uses such as hydropower. [The Express Tribune]
In her article Priyanka Bhide considers linkages between water security and socio-economic growth for six selected cities across India, where a rapidly increasing population and urbanization have driven up water demands all across the country. [China Water Risk]
India unlikely to use US facilities to store strategic oil reserves
(lm) India has decided to re-evaluate its plan to store its strategic oil reserves in facilities available in the United States, as New Delhi seeks to expand its domestic storage, which it consider s a safer and better option to tide over excess price volatility and short-term supply disruptions. [Energyworld]
Timing and context of the announcement are noteworthy: India's crude oil imports last December soared to the highest levels in nearly three years to more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd) as its refiners cranked up output to meet a rebound in fuel demand, boosting prices and an accelerating de-stocking of floating storage globally. [Nasdaq]
Despite being the world’s third-biggest oil consumer and importer, India has available enough SPR to tackle emergency situations lasting for a mere maximum of nine days – compared with 198 days for Japan - making the country prone to price and supply risks. The urgency to scale up its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) pushed New Delhi into signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Washington last July to cooperate on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile.
More recently, however, New Delhi has been making efforts to enhance its energy security domestically, with the government planning to offer viability gap funding (VGF) to attract bidders for the second phase of India's Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which will add 12 days of strategic storage. [Livemint]
United States envoy meets with Prime Minister Oli & rival Dahal
(lm) The United States ambassador to Nepal on January 21 met with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to discuss the new US presidential administration’s priorities, including strengthening democracies and battling climate change. Significantly, the ambassador also met with Oli’s rival and factional leader of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a few days after, although Dahal does not hold an official position in the current caretaker government. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Himalayan Times 2]
Pakistan wants India held ‘accountable’ for 2019 airstrike
(lm) Pakistan has urged the world community to hold longtime rival India “accountable" for the 2019 Balakot airstrike conducted last February when Indian warplanes crossed the de facto border in the disputed region of Kashmir and dropped bombs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. [Anadolu Agency]
The move comes after a leaked WhatsApp chat between Hindu-nationalist pundit Arnab Goswani and a former media industry executive revealed that the Indian air strike inside Pakistan was pre-planned, allegedly designed to perpetuate the image of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the run up to the general elections. [South China Morning Post]
In early February 2019, a convoy of vehicles carrying security personnel was attacked by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of more than 40 Indian paramilitary forces. The responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Pakistan-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed. Pakistan condemned the attack and denied any connection to it.
Days later, Indian jets crossed into Pakistan and dropped bombs on the outskirts of the village of Balakot, characterizing the airstrike a preemptive strike directed against a terrorist training camp. The following day, in a tit-for-tat airstrike, the Pakistani Air Force shot down two Indian aircraft and arrested a pilot, who was later released as a "goodwill gesture." [AiR (1/3/2019), AiR (4/2/2019)]
Singapore, India sign deal for submarine rescue mission
(lm) At the 5th India-Singapore Defense Minister’s Dialogue held through video conferencing, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his Singaporean counterpart Ng Eng Hen on January 20 witnessed the signing of the Implementing Agreement on Submarine Rescue Support and Cooperation. Under the agreement, the navies of both countries seek to extend rescue facilities to each other's submarines. [The Straits Times]
While discussing regional security developments, during the meeting, both ministers also reaffirmed the strong and longstanding bilateral defense relationship and their commitment to sustain defense cooperation across the three services, and in defense technology and multilateral engagements. [The Hindu]
Pakistan successfully tests long-range surface-to-surface missile
(lm) Pakistan successfully conducted on January 20 a flight-test of its Shaheen-III ballistic missile in the Northern Arabian Sea. The test flight is the latest in a series of missile tests carried out by Islamabad over the course of the past couple of weeks [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]. [Anadolu Agency]
The country’s longest-range missile system, Shaheen-III was designed to reach Indian islands to deny Indian forces the “second-strike capability” – i.e., a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker – according to a former Director General of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division. [Al Jazeera]
Pakistan Taliban “commanders” killed in northwest
(lm) Pakistan’s military announced on January 24 it had killed five members of Pakistan’s leading Taliban group, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in two separate security operations, including two senior members of different factions of the armed group. The operations had been conducted in districts of the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where Pakistan’s military had launched a series of operations since 2014, forcing TTP to take sanctuary over the border in Afghanistan [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Al Jazeera 1]
Earlier three Pakistani soldiers were killed in an exchange of fire during an operation against rebel hideouts in South Waziristan, another district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Two attackers, who had been active members of TTP, were also killed in the intelligence operation. [Anadolu Agency]
In another incident, at least four soldiers belonging to Pakistan’s paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC) were killed and five more injured when an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated near their vehicle in the province of Balochistan on January 20. The Balochistan Liberation Army, an outlawed militant organization that wages a violent armed struggle for separation of Balochistan from Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for the attack. The incident comes just a week after the provincial government launched a large-scale offensive following the killing of 11 coalminers belonging to the Shi’ite Hazara community [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3, AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. [South China Morning Post]
Indian army helicopter crashes in Kashmir
(lm) An Indian army helicopter crash-landed along the disputed along the Line of Control (LoC) on January 25, leaving one pilot dead and another critically injured. The incident occurred just days after an Indian soldier was shot dead by Pakistani snipers in the Jammu district. [Express] [Kahsmir Observer]
Indonesia: Another water drone found
(nd) Only a month after the latest find in the Indonesian exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a fisherman found an underwater drone featuring Chinese symbols off Riau Islands. The previous drone was found south of Sulawesi. These drones feature a dual use, for they can be used both for oceanographic research, and military purposes. [Tempo]
Indonesia: High speed rail project open to investors
(nd) After Japan denied to support the construction of a high-speed railway to Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, the government offered China and other countries to step in. The consortium of Japanese investors wanted to focus on expanding an existing medium-speed rail project from Jakarta to Surabaya through the northern side of Java, while the Indonesian government prefers the line to pass through the southern part of the island. The Indonesian-Japanese deal was signed in 2019, aiming to cut travel time in half, with an investment volume of 60 trillion rupiah ($4.3 billion) and an expected completion date in 2025.
China has stepped up its infrastructure investment in Indonesia, remarkably with the Jakarta-Bandung high speed rail, which forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and will be completed next year. The project was given to China instead of Japan, after China agreed to provide a loan without a government guarantee, illustrating the two countries’ struggle for influence in the strategically important Indonesia. According to observers, Indonesia could still involve other countries in the project through the recently launched sovereign wealth fund, naming South Korea for its experience in building high-speed rail lines. [Benar News]
Indonesia, US to charge Bali bombers
(nd) Nearly 18 years after their capture, US military prosecutors charged three Guantanamo Bay inmates involved in the 2002 Bali bombings and 2003 Jakarta attack. The suspects are the leader respectively aides of Indonesian jihadist group Jemaah Islamiyah, which was assumed to be al-Qaeda’s first representative in the region. The attacks were carried out with al-Qaeda support.
The announcement came on the first day of the Biden administration. As Brack Obama’s vice president, both wanted but failed to close Guantanamo Bay. The Trump administration did not attend to the prison, which still inhabits 40 detainees. [Malay Mail]
Indonesia: Oil tankers seized
(nd) Indonesian coast guard seized Iranian- and Panamanian-flagged vessels off Kalimantan province. The vessels had turned off their automatic identification system (AIS) and did not respond to a radio call. The vessels were caught transferring oil from the loaded Iranian to the empty Panamanian tanker, which is managed by Shanghai Future Ship Management Co.
It is required for vessels to use transponders for safety and transparency, following rules of the International Maritime Organization. In the past, Iran has been accused of switching off AIS to conceal its oil sales in order to circumvent US sanctions. Former President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 and reimposed sanction to prevent Iran from exporting oil. [Reuters]
Malaysia: Vietnamese fishermen arrested
(nd) Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) has arrested 16 Vietnamese fishermen off Terengganu state. The fishermen were using fake registration numbers. Among other states, Malaysia and Vietnam have claims to the South China Sea that overlap. Recently, tension rose in the disputed waters due to Chinese military action. [Reuters]
Myanmar, Indonesia to urge safe return conditions for Rohingyas
(nd) In an effort to weigh in on the solution of the Rohingya refugees, Indonesia urged Myanmar to create safe conditions to return from Bangladesh to Rakhine state. During a virtual ASEAN meeting, the bloc members supported the repatriation plan. The ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) reminded the bloc members of the ongoing clashes between Myanmar’s military and Arakan Army, creating an unsafe environment into which a return cannot be forced. APHR renewed calls to exert more pressure on the Burmese government in this regard.
In November 2018 and August 2019, previous plans to repatriate Rohingya refugees failed due to the lack of a guarantee for their safety and rights. Indonesia took in over 11,000 Rohingya refugees since 2015, according to the Indonesian Foreign Ministry. With regards to the about 400 Rohingya refugees residing in Aceh province, Amnesty International Indonesia emphasized the government should not rush repatriation unless the conditions in Myanmar are safe. [Benar News]
Brokered by China, Bangladesh and Myanmar met last week to discuss the repatriation of Rohingya refugees last week. While Bangladesh has announced a successful agreement on the repatriation of 1 million Rohingya refugees, the Burmese side has downplayed the significance of the meeting’s conclusion. The media coverage was either non-exiting or listed under “national” in an unprominent location. Observers see this as a sign of how little pressure with regard to this issue is felt by -- the Burmese civilian and military leadership. [Anadolu Agency]
Myanmar, Russia to seal military deal
(nd) Myanmar and Russia agreed on Russian military supply, including surface-to-air missile systems, surveillance drones, and radar equipment, expanding their mutual defense cooperation. It is speculated Myanmar might use the new equipment along the border with Bangladesh, or in Shan State, close to the Self-Administered Zone by the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the country’s largest ethnic armed organization. UWSA was technically equipped by China early last year.
Reportedly, Russia also has an interest in establishing naval visits to Myanmar in order to have an ally and strategic partner in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. The countries have established diplomatic ties in 1948. Together with China, they voted to block a UN Security Council resolution against Myanmar over the Rohingya crisis. The countries have joint military drills and Myanmar has bought Russian military equipment since the 2000s. Myanmar was the fifth-biggest importer of Russian weapons and aircraft in 2014, with a volume of US$20.4 million (27.2 billion kyats), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
For Myanmar, it is a possibility to counterbalance the influences of China, India and Western powers. As a former British colony, Myanmar mainly used European military equipment until Western countries imposed a ban in 1988 on military sales after a pro-democracy uprising was crushed violently in a military coup. [Irrawaddy]
Myanmar, China to deepen cooperation
(nd) During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Myanmar, the countries agreed on a major transportation project and a five-year trade and economic pact, including 8 bilateral deals. Most importantly, a feasibility study for the second half of a rail line from East to West, connecting Myanmar’s border with China to its Bay of Bengal coast, forms part of it. The line is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and shall provide an access to the Indian Ocean in bypassing the Malacca Strait. The first half of the project included a deep-water port on the coast and parallel running oil and gas pipelines, which drew a lot of criticism by residents.
The construction work was slowed down by Burmese fears of spiraling into a “debt trap” and dependency on China amid the high volume of BRI projects. According to analysts, the recent success to push the projects signals significant growth of Chinese influence on Myanmar. Also, the signing of a 5-year plan at the beginning of National League for Democracy’s (NLD) second term shows Myanmar’s dependency on China, as well as Chinese strategic ambition in Myanmar. The years of little competition for Southeast Asia might be over with the new administration of President-elect Joe Biden. Wang’s latest visit was therefore seen as a move to get ahead of Biden in the region. Wang is also visiting Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines and donating Covid-19 vaccinations. [Voice of America]
Philippines, China to sign infrastructure contracts
(nd) During a visit of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, China and the Philippines have signed contracts for the construction of a bridge link to Davao City in Mindanao and a cargo railway in Luzon. It represents a contribution to president Rodrigo Duterte’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure initiative, which was launched in 2017 and plans to spend 8 to 9 trillion pesos (roughly US$160 billion to US$180 billion).
The railway project with estimated costs of US$940 million will the highest-funded G-to-G cooperation project between China and the Philippines, and will through ports, railways, and airports connect the Subic-Clark corridor with New Clark city in the long run. The bridge will provide a transportation link between Metro Davao and Samal Island, with estimated costs of US$400 million. Additionally, the government plans to build four energy facilities, ten water resource projects and irrigation systems to raise agricultural output; and five flood control facilities. [Asia Times]
Thailand: FBI and Royal Thai Police to enhance cooperation
(nd) In an effort to further enhance criminal prosecution, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Royal Thai Police (RTP) announced to cooperate more on various crimes, including transnational human trafficking and cybercrimes. Past cooperation included the implementation of training facilities, and the creation of the Advanced Law Enforcement Training (ALET) program. The program aimed at enhancing four special, counter-terrorism operation units - Arintaraj, Naresuan, Hanuman and the Special Service Division (SSD) - to deal with special situations. [Bangkok Post]
German research service of parliament to challenge foreign ministry’s stance on Thailand
(nd) The research service of the German federal parliament, Bundestag, accused the foreign ministry of creating a "lex regis thailandia", meaning a law specially accommodating for the Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn. Earlier, the foreign ministry stated the King was not breaching German law and could return any time without a visa. A visa-free entry can be granted, however, to head of states upon invitation, not for private trips. Until he returned to Thailand in October, the King was residing for extended periods in Bavaria. The latest comment of the German federal parliament’s research service might to trigger a new parliamentary inquiry into the matter. [Nikkei Asia] [South China Morning Post]
Malaysia: Vietnamese fishermen arrested
(nd) Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) has arrested 16 Vietnamese fishermen off Terengganu state. The fishermen were using fake registration numbers. Among other states, Malaysia and Vietnam have claims to the South China Sea that overlap. Recently, tension rose in the disputed waters due to Chinese military action. [Reuters]
Thailand to reject Laos’ report on Sanakham dam
(nd) Thailand’s Office of National Water Resources has rejected Laos’ latest technical report on the Sanakham dam project due to insufficient information on environmental effects and possible compensations for residents. The dam is one of nine large-scale Mekong River mainstream dams forming part of Laos’ economic strategy to become the “Battery of Southeast Asia.” Meanwhile, Laos plans to conduct safety inspections of 79 existing dams on the Mekong. In July 2018, the Xe Pian-Xe Namnoi dam collapsed in, killing 71 people in a flood disaster. The dam projects are controversial, not only with regards to displacement of villagers and environmental effects, but also due to questionable financial and power demand arrangements. [Radio Free Asia]
ASEAN human rights hit by pandemic
(nd) According to deputy Asia director at the New York-based advocacy group Human Rights Watch, Phil Robertson, human rights took a hit amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which highlighted inequalities and vulnerability. Malaysia for instance excluded their 3,5 million migrants and refugees from government aid programs. For a lack of governmental support in Myanmar, some of the overlooked people relied on armed rebel groups for aid instead. In Singapore and partly in Thailand, the virus transmission was blamed on migrants, creating an anti-immigrant sentiment.
Apart from economic differences and hardships, the pandemic allowed to “reinforce” existing policies to target dissidents under the umbrella of health protection, as seen with protesters in Thailand. According to US-based rights advocacy group Amnesty International, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte told soldiers and neighborhood leaders to shoot “troublemakers” protesting during community quarantine, furthering the “climate of impunity”, which was set off by his infamous drug on war, resulting in increased killings of activists. In this militaristic atmosphere, police officers were found to have committed abused enforcing stay-at-home orders. [Voice of America]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
26-28 January 2021 @ 5:00 pm IST, The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel
The 14th Annual International Conference | New World Disorder – Redefining National Security
Over three days, the INSS 14th Annual International Conference compromises a wide array of online formats, including panel discussions, lectures, simulations, Q&As, and interviews, considering contemporary questions of national security such as the world between Trump and Biden, the war in the Middle East, and future perspectives for Israel.
For details and information on how to join the conference, please access [INSS].
27 January 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium
In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB’s strategy review
As the European Central Bank is in the middle of reviewing its monetary policy strategy, this webinar seeks to discuss the following questions: What are the issues that it needs to address? Are there quick gains to be had? And what are the big issues that it must consider? Importantly, how is the role of macroeconomic management changing in the era of the digital transformation?
If you are interested in this event, please follow [Bruegel] for more information.
27 January 2021 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, United States
The Future of US-Nigeria Relations: A Conversation with Ambassador John Campbell
James Barnett and John Campbell – former US Ambassador to Nigeria and Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations – will discuss contemporary Nigerian politics, the challenges of post-colonial state-building, and the future of US-Africa relations. Campbell is also author of the new book, Nigeria and the Nation State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Postcolonial World, urging US officials to stop projecting their own image of the nation-state onto Africa and embrace a more decentralized approach to diplomacy.
Please follow [Hudson Institute] for more information.
27 January 2021 @ 9:30 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
The EU and Belarus in 2021
Against the backdrop of ongoing and unprecedent protests in Belarus triggered by rigged election results, this webinar, which is co-organized with the embassy of Lithania, the embassy of Poland, and the embassy of Romania in France, will discuss the chances of a regime change in Belarus, the role Europe might play in this, as well as Russia’s strategy towards Belarus. Registration is required.
If you wish to join this virtual event, details and registration are available under [ECFR].
28 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany
Digital Development Dialogue (3D) 2021
This online seminar is a monthly forum for policy and research exchange featuring one researcher and one practitioner to touch upon key topics in development policy. This month’s seminar will consider: Aid Effectiveness for the Next Decade: How Will the Debate on Aid Effectiveness Evolve in the Upcoming Years?
Please visit [GIGA] for more information.
28 January 2021 @ 2:00 pm PHST, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Philippines
Virtual Book Launch: Revitalizing Philippine Irrigation: A Systems and Governance Assessment for the 21st Century
The book that is launched in this event is a compilation of various studies about the country’s irrigation system by esteemed authors from various organizations. Particularly, the book evaluated the government’s irrigation development program, covering both national and communal systems, as well as various program considerations. Essentially, it offers a set of recommendations from this assessment to help the government pursue reforms toward cost-effective irrigation sector development.
For more information and access details, please visit [PIDS].
28 January 2021 @ 1:00-2:15 pm ET, Center for Global Development, Washington DC, USA
A Renewed Commitment: SDAGs in a Post- COVID world
This event will discuss how the IMF can be helped to succeed in its efforts in this area, and how the IMF can in turn help its member countries confront the challenges of climate change.
For more detail, see [CGDEV]
29 January 2021 @ 10:00 am CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium
The future of European Defence and the priorities of the Portuguese Presidency: African partnerships, Maritime Security and Resilience
This event will allow the Portuguese Minister of Defence to present the key priorities of the Portuguese presidency of the Council of the EU regarding the Common Security and Defence Policy. There will be initial statements as well as an open Q&A with the audience. Particular emphasis will be on transatlantic relations and the EU NATO cooperation, European security partnerships and missions in Africa, Maritime Security, and the role of the Armed Froces in response to complex emergencies.
If you wish to join this event, please access [Egmont Institute] for more information. Please register by 27 January at noon.
29 January 2021 @ 5:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan
Webinar to Consider Support for Migrants under Emergency
Based on most recent research on the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and infection control measures on migrants in Southeast and East Asia, and in Japan in particular, this seminar will discuss how we can better support migrants under the current State of Emergency in Japan and how we can rebuild better migration governance in Southeast and East Asia.
Please visit [SPF] for more information. Registration is required by 5:00 pm JST, 27January, 2021.
2-4 February 2021 @ 10:00 am MYT, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, Malaysia
Malaysia Outlook Conference 2021
This virtual three-day conference will discuss three main areas. On day 1, it will discuss the outlook for economic recovery in 2021, day 2 will focus on the current political landscape in both Malaysia and the world, and day 3 will finish with a discussion on how COVID-19 has affected social behaviour and what we can learn from this.
Please visit [IDEAS] for more information and registration.
2 February 2021 @ 5:00 pm CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
ECFR x Intelligence² Germany – Debate: The West should engage not confront China
You can join this debate between Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies at King’s College London and Director at the Law China Institute, and Anastasia Lin, Human Rights Activist, Political Commentator, and Actress, on how the West should engage with China. Should the West accept the differences and engage with China on the basis of common humanity and respect as Mr. Brown proposes, or should it accept their engagement and convergence strategy has failed considering ongoing human rights violations and stand firm and confront China, as Ms. Lin argues?
For more information and mandatory registration, please visit [ECFR].
2 February 2021 @ 9:15 am CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium
Quid de l’après Covid 19 pour la relation entre l’UE et ses voisinages : compagnonnage renouvelé ou proximité distanciée face aux défis communs?
This virtual conference will try to evaluate the relationship between the European Union and its Southern and Eastern neighbouring states after the Covid-19 pandemic: Will they renew their relationship or will they drift further apart, benefitting other international and regional geopolitical actors? Some speakers will speak in French and others in English.
Please visit [Egmont Institute] for more information and registration.
2 February 2021 @ 1:00 pm CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium
African intra and inter-continental migration during Covid-19
This webinar aims to provoke a discussion about migration within and beyond Africa in time of pandemic, taking a broad approach and building on new findings produced by key actors on migration to bring the debate forward, in search of new best practices and lessons learnt.
If you wish to join this webinar, please visit [Egmont Institute] and register by 31 January.
3 February 2021 @ 1:00 pm EST, Queen’s University, Canada
Injustices in the Globalized Food System: Migrant Agricultural Work in Canada and Greece
This webinar held by Janet McLaughlin – Associate Professor of Health Studies at Wilfried Laurier University as well as co-founder and co-coordinator of the Migrant Worker Health Project – and Reena Kukreja – Assistant Professor of Global Development Studies at Queen’s University – is part of the Gender Matters Speaker Series organized by the Department of Gender Studies at Queen’s University.
If you are interested in joining this webinar, please visit [QU] for details.
3 February 2021 @ 11:00 am PST, Fraser Institute, Canada
Building a Sustainable and Resilient Indigenous Economy
In this webinar, Chief Commissioner Manny Jules will present a proposal on how to build a more sustainable and resilient First Nation economy supported by a competitive investment climate, more fiscal independence and indigenous institutions and standards. There will be a subsequent question and answer period.
For more information, please visit [Fraser Institute].
3 February 2021 @ 3:00 pm JST, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan
Clear the Path for a Sustainable Future – The Harmonious Coexistence between Nature and Humankind in the COVID-19 era
This symposium endeavours to seeks ways to consider the COVID-10 era, through messages from guest speakers who have worked for a long time toward resolving global environmental issues. It is part of the International Cosmos Prize Online Symposium.
Please visit [IGES] for more information.
4 February 2021 @ 2:00 pm GMT, Res Publica, United Kingdom
Post Brexit food trade and food security
This webinar will discuss the “free trade and cooperation agreement” concluded between the EU and the UK and what it really means for food producers and consumers in the UK. Among other questions, it asks how to remove technical barriers to imports and exports, how to ensure that UK producers maintain access to the workers they need, how future trade relationships can help maintain high standards of food production, and how food businesses and Government can work together to eradicate food poverty?
If you are interested in joining this webinar, please access [ResPublica].
4 February 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 pm AEDT, Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA), Australia
The Ox Year in the China Shop – Winning at Home and Abroad, and Embracing Global Elites
This online event will discuss the question on how China was successful in retaining the backing of elites, both within the country and overseas.
Find more details at [AIIA].
8 / 9 February 2021 @ 1:30 pm CET, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Canada
T20 Italy Virtual Inception Conference
As part of Italy's 2021 Presidency of the G20, the Italy T20 Secretariat is hosting a two-day virtual inception conference. The theme is Rekindling Multilateralism in a post-COVID World.
Please follow [T20] for more information and registration.
9 February 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 pm AEDT, Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA), Australia
Japan’s Net Zero Carbon Emissions Announcement: What Happens Now?
This online event will discuss how Japan is implementing the net zero announcement, what its prospects are, and what it means for Australia.
More about the event at [AIIA].
10 February 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 am PDT, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA
Political Thinkers in the Xi Jinping Era
In this talk, David Ownby, Professor of History, Université de Montréal, will introduce Chinese political thinkers in the Xi Jinping era. These professors, journalists, writers, and artists try to shape public debate and state policy and more or less play by the Chinese Communist Party’s rules while not acting as spokespeople for it. Ownby will describe the evolution of their “thought world,” which has adapted to Xi Jinping’s tighter strictures, and introduce a number of its key thinkers and themes.
Please register here: [Hoover]
18 February 2021 @ 6:00-7:30 pm AEDT, Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA), Australia
Identity, Culture, and Memory in Japanese Foreign Policy
This online book talk will explore the transformation of Japan's foreign policy during Abe Shinzo Administration.
More information on the event are available at [AIIA].
23 February 2021 @ 4:00-5:00 pm ET, Harvard Kennedy School, USA
Political Geographies of the Populist Right
This event will discuss how to make sense of these deep geographic divides, similarities and differences in spatial patterns across countries, strategies parties are using to mobilize voters across space and place, and other pertinent questions.
Please register here: [Harvard]
25 February 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 pm, Pacific Council on International Policy, USA
COVID-19 AND IMMIGRATION AT THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER
This event will discuss solutions to public health challenges faced by migrant communities amidst the pandemic, as part of the Pacific Council’s First 100 days Memo on U.S.- Mexico Policy.
For more details, see [Pacific].
11, 15-19 March 2021, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan
The 7th 3R International Scientific Conference (3RINCs)
Global academics, policymakers, and business representatives, especially those from the Asia-Pacific
region, will come together for interdisciplinary discussions around green recovery policies. In the "Special Session" of the conference, participants will, with respect to various countries, share information about and discuss topics such as: analytical methods of plastic waste, organic waste and food waste management, disaster waste management, and waste management during/after COVID-19. The "General Session" will cover a wide range of topics and be a good opportunity to publish research outputs as part of the proceedings e-book. There is also an opportunity to submit a full paper for the special issue of a well-known international journal.
Abstracts may be submitted until 1 February 2021; registration is required.
If you are interested in this conference, please visit [IGES] for more information and fee details.
Recent book releases
David Dayen, Monopolized: Life in the Age of Corporate Power, The New Press, 336 pages, July 21, 2020, briefly reviewed in [Kirkus Review].
Zachary D. Carter, The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes, Random House, 656 pages, May 19, 2020, reviewed in [LSE].
Calls
Palgrave MacMillan invites to submit paper for The Palgrave Handbook of Global Social Problems. Closing date for submission is May 21, 2022. For more detail, see [PHGSP]
The Global Journal of Political and Social Research is accepting papers for its June 2021 issue. Submission deadline is no later than April 1, 2021. For more detail see, [GJPSR]
The Interdisciplinary Centre on Nuclear and Strategic Studies (CIENS) invites to submit paper for its conference on Nuclear deterrence in Europe. Visions, debates, opportunities, and challenges from 1945 to present scheduled for June/July 2021 (exact date to be determined). Submission deadline is February 19, 2021. For more detail, see [CIENS]
Jobs & positions
The United Nations University is offering a position of Research Fellow to support the research and training programme of its Institute for Development Economics Research. Closing date for applications is January 31, 2021. For more information, see [UNU].
The University of Würzburg is hiring an Assistant professor in Private Law. Applications to be submitted by February 8, 2021. For more information, see [Academic Positions, Universität Würzburg].
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