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Asia in Review

No. 45, November/2020, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week's AiR issue updating you on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Cambodia, Palestine and Poland which celebrate Independence Day this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: State family planning set to fade out 

(dql) In the five-year plan endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee late October [AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1] the term ‘family planning’ was dropped. It used to be a central part of previous five-year plans.

Analysts see the omission as a sign that the government's family planning policy will fade out allowing Chinese families to decide by themselves how many children they want to have.

In late 2015 China its infamous ‘one-child policy’ and allowed Chinese couples to have two children, in attempt to bring about an increase on newborns. However, it yielded no success, with the number of newborns in China sinking to a historically low level in 2019. [South China Morning Post]

China is currently conducting its 7th population census, with 7 million census takers deployed to collect data about the country’s population for over a month. [Aljazeera]

China’s expansion of surveillance system

(dql) An analysis of Chinafile, an online magazine published by the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society, sheds light on the expansion of the surveillance system in China over the past decade. From 2010-2019, government procurement of surveillance-related technical equipment and maintenance services increased close to 19-fold, while purchases to expand the ‘Sharp Eyes’ surveillance project alone amounted to more than 2.1 billion USD. [Chinafile] [South China Morning Post]

Launched in May 2015, ‘Sharp Eyes’ aims to deliver by 2020 “100% video surveillance coverage” in core public areas and major industries, including transportation, environmental protection, and urban management, in all rural regions across the country, reinforced by “full cross-network sharing of surveillance data, and government participation at all levels.”  

‘Sharp Eyes’ refers to Mao Zedong’s statement “The People have sharp eyes,” which became a widespread slogan during the Cultural Revolution. [China Digital]

Japan: Rise in sexual violence consultations during pandemic

(dql) Indicating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on sexual violence, support centers have been contacted by victims of sexual assaults on over 23.000 occasions between April and September, according to data released by Japan’s cabinet. It marks an increase of almost 16% compared with the same period in 2019. [Kyodo News]

Earlier last month, data of Japan’s National Police showed a surge in suicides amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 1.800 people taking their lives in August, a rise of almost 15% compared with the same month last year. [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]

CPG will organize on 12 November an AiR webinar on the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the society in Thailand, addressing – among other issues – rising numbers of suicides and domestic violence linked to psychological and economic pressure under the pandemic lockdown. [CPG]

South Korea: Opposition parties to field joint candidates for Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections

(dql) South Korea’s main opposition People Power Party is considering joining hands with the minor opposition People’s Party to field joint candidates to increase chances of winning next April’s mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan, the country’s two largest cities. The by-elections will be a litmus test for the ruling Democratic Party (DP) ahead of the presidential election 2022.

The two mayoral posts were vacated this year after the two DP mayors failed to fulfill their terms, with the Seoul mayor committing suicide over sexual harassment allegations and the Busan mayor resigning after admitting sexual harassment of a female civil servant in April. [Korea Herald]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: High Court questions ban on marital rape prosecutions

(lm) Bangladesh’s High Court has sought explanation from the government on why penal code and domestic abuse laws do not recognize marital rape as a crime. Before, women’s right groups filed a petition with the court, arguing the current legislation was discriminatory to stop alleged rapists from being charged if they are married to their victims. [Reuters] [Dhaka Tribune] [The Daily Star]

The court’s decision comes amid growing concern about sexual violence in Bangladesh. The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last month amended the law to elevate the maximum punishment for sexual assault from life imprisonment to capital punishment after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets to demand justice and to call on the government to introduce the death penalty for offenders. Women’s rights advocates, however, called the elevation of the punishment for rape a ‘regressive step’ that would not reduce violence against women. Instead, rights groups suggest far-reaching reform of the legal system and more education to bring about real change [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2].

Sex crimes have surged in Bangladesh since the beginning of this year, with gang rapes accounting for more than one-fifth of the nearly 1,000 attacks reported between January and September, according to Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), a local human rights organization. Between April and August, as the world reeled under the coronavirus pandemic, four women were raped every day in Bangladesh, the ASK data showed.

India: Five BJP-led state governments plan legislation against ‘love jihad’

(lm) Five Indian state governments, all led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have promised new laws on forced religious conversions around marriage, fueling the ‘love jihad’ conspiracy theory which claims that Muslim men are carrying out an organized campaign to deceive or coerce women into converting to Islam. [The Straits Times]

Despite the strong rhetoric, several official investigations have found no evidence of the existence of ‘love jihad’. In Uttar Pradesh state, for example, police this August established a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to probe cases of inter-faith marriages and alleged forced conversion. Two months later, half of the 14 cases the police were investigating collapsed, after investigators had concluded that these were consensual relationships between Hindu women and their Muslim partners. [NDTV]

However, while there is no evidence for an orchestrated campaign, there have been anecdotal instances that have fueled the conspiracy theories. The recent debate follows the murder of a 20-year-old Hindu woman in the state of Haryana in late October. CCTV footage appeared to show a man shooting the woman as she resisted abduction. Within 24 hours, police arrested the alleged shooter: a Muslim man who the victim’s family said had been stalking her and attempted to kidnap her earlier. [The Indian Express]

Maldives: Supreme Court to begin hearings over ex-Vice President Jameel’s impeachment case

(lm) The first in a series of Supreme Court hearings pertaining to the impeachment of former Vice-President Mohamed Jameel Ahmed is scheduled to take place on November 19. Jameel, who was impeached in July 2015 following a no confidence motion in Parliament had initially lodged his case in April last year. [The Edition]

Mohamed Jameel Ahmed claims that his impeachment was ‘undeniably unconstitutional’, arguing that the parliament was only one component of the three separated powers in the Presidential governing system. Jameel also says that the case was rushed to conclusion without regard to due process assured by the constitution.

Following a no confidence motion submitted by the then-ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Jameel was impeached in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup to take over the Presidency. By the time of his impeachment, Jameel had been serving two years as Vice President of then-President Abdulla Yameen, who currently serves a five-year jail sentence on money laundering charges [see AiR No. 49, December/2019, 1]. 

Considering that the detention of political leaders was commonplace during Yameen’s tenure, Jameel forestalled his dismissal and left the Maldives to take up residence in the United Kingdom. After incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s landslide win in the presidential election, in October 2018 [see AiR (4/9/2018)], Jameel returned to the Maldives from self-imposed exile. At the time, Jameel was highly critical of the former PPM-led government, describing it as the darkest era in the history of Maldives, rampant with corruption and strife. Last June, in a change of heart, the opposition alliance of PPM and People’s National Congress (PNC) appointed Jameel as an advisor to the coalition. 

Nepal: Increasingly isolated, Prime Minister Oli pulls out all the stops

(lm) Increasingly isolated, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on November 9 called for a meeting of the six-member task force whose suggestions had ended the stalemate between the Prime Minister and his party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, albeit temporarily [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]. The meeting, however, could not take place, because two members belonging to the faction of Nepal Communist Party’s (NCP) co-chair Dahal refused to join. [The Kathmandu Post]

The situation in Nepal’s ruling party had massively deteriorated after Oli last week warned Dahal not to officially call for a Secretariat meeting without his consent, and even threatened to split the party if pushed to the wall by his rivals [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1].

After a second meeting between the two NCP co-chairs had not yielded any results, except the message that negotiations would continue, Dahal, together with four other members of the party’s Secretariat on November 7 held an ‘informal’ Secretariat meeting. The next day, the faction wrote a letter to Prime Minister Oli, seeking consent for an official Secretariat meeting. After he received the letter, Oli refused to respond and instead met with the faction around NCP’s third senior leader, Madhav Kumar Nepal. During the meeting, Oli reportedly urged Nepal to help preventing a party split but Nepal remained non-committal, urging the prime minister to call the Secretariat meeting soon. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Himalayan Times 2] [The Himalayan Times 3]

Before, despite having fallen into minority in all key bodies of the party — Secretariat, Standing Committee and Central Committee – Oli on November 4 held a meeting with some leaders close to him to make a push for adopting ‘People's Multiparty Democracy’ as the party’s ideology. Read between the lines, the move was an earlier attempt to court Nepal, alongside other members of the now-defunct Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) (CPN-UML). [The Kathmandu Post]

Proclaimed in 1993 as an extension of Marxism-Leninism, ‘People's Multiparty Democracy’ refers to the political line of the now-defunct CPN-UML. This thought abandons the traditional idea of a revolutionary communist vanguard party in favor of a democratic multi-party system. Thus, it differs from the Maoist concept of a ‘People's War’, drawn on by the now-defunct Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN-(Maoist)), which had fought a civil war against the Nepalese government between 1996 and 2006. During the post-election merger of the CPN-UML and the CPN-(Maoist) in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)], both parties agreed to adopt a middle path, proposing ‘People’s Democracy’ as the NCP’s guiding principle.

Pakistan: Council of Islamic Ideology approves construction of new Hindu temple in Islamabad

(lm) The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), a constitutional body that advises the government on whether legislation is compliant with the laws of Islam, has given approval for the construction of a new temple for minority Hindus, ruling that Islamic law allows minorities a place of worship. The council also permitted the building of community centers for the minority group to hold weddings and to perform the last rites of their deceased, which the council noted was their constitutional right. [Al Jazeera]

Noting that there was no tradition of using public funds for construction of non-government worship places in Pakistan, however, the CII also ruled that the provision of public money for the temple could not be recommended. At the same time, the council’s ruling left open the possibility the money could be distributed to the Hindu community to use as it sees fit. [Anadolu Agency]

The plan to build a temple complex in Islamabad for the city’s minority Hindu residents and visitors was approved in 2017 under former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government, but construction had been delayed until this year by administrative hurdles. In June, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan allotted land and promised $600 million in funding for the project. Shortly thereafter, however, the Capital Development Authority (CDA) put the construction on hold, responding to massive public disapproval and political uproar against the project. The Islamabad High Court (IHC) the following month then disposed all petitions against the construction of the temple and ruled that the construction could continue once the building plan was approved by the CDA. In spite of the ruling, opposition from several right-wing parties, which objected to the use of public money to build the place of worship, forced the government to refer the matter to the CII [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2].

Pakistan: Hindu temple vandalized; families saved by Muslims from angry attackers

(lm) Two places of worship of the country’s Hindu minority have been vandalized. In the first incident, an angry mob looted a temple in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh. The attackers also attempted to attack over 300 Hindu families living on the complex, but were stopped by Muslim families residing in and around the compound, from entering the neighborhood. After the incident, more than 60 Hindu families shifted to other areas of the city. [Deccan Herald]

Moreover, another Hindu temple was vandalized in Karachi, the province’s main city, making it the third desecration of a place of worship within the past 20 days [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. [Sputnik International]

Hindus constitute Pakistan’s largest non-Muslim minority, estimated at between two and four percent of the population. Most of them live in southern province of Sindh.

Pakistan: Police recover teen girl after alleged forced conversion and marriage

(lm) Facing mounting pressure from campaign groups, a Pakistani court has ordered the police to take into custody a man accused of kidnapping, forcibly converting and marrying a 13-year-old Christian child until the next hearing in the case later this week. The girl was taken into protective custody on October 2, after the court ordered that she be taken to a women’s shelter pending further investigation in the case. [Al Jazeera]

This reversal comes weeks after the girl's family had first filed a kidnapping complaint with local police on October 13. Two days thereafter, police informed the family that the alleged abductor had produced a marriage certificate stating that the girl was 18 and had converted to Islam. The family claimed the identification papers were fake but when the case went to court on 27 October, the Sindh High Court granted the alleged abductor custody of the minor, ruling that she had married the man of her own ‘free will’. [Inter Press Service] [bbc]

Pakistani law prohibits child marriage and forcible conversion, a growing problem in the southern province of Sindh, where a recent surge in reported cases has brought the issue back into the limelight. Last month, however, the head of the parliamentary panel tasked with probing those allegations said that most cases of forced conversion ‘have some degree of willingness on the part of the girl’. [Dawn]

Sri Lanka: Rights activists criticize UN Country Team for inviting PM Rajapaksa as ‘Chief Guest’ to event

(ng/lm) Human Rights Watch has criticized the UN’s Country Team in Sri Lanka for inviting Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa as ‘Chief Guest’ to a virtual event commemorating the world body’s 75th birthday. The rights groups said that the responsibility for many of the alleged crimes committed during the final stages of the country’s civil war rests with Rajapaksa, who served as President between 2005 and 2015. [Human Rights Watch]

In the final months of the Sri Lankan Civil War in 2009, the armed forces, as well as the secessionist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), allegedly committed numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity, including attacks on civilians and civilian buildings, and executions of combatants and prisoners. For their part, Rajapaksa and his government denied all allegations of war crimes and have strongly opposed any international investigation.

Human Rights Watch further alleges that the current government, led Mahinda’s brother and incumbent President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is currently undermining post-war reconciliation efforts guided by the UN Human Rights Council resolution passed in 2015.

For a start, the United States in February issued a travel ban on Sri Lanka’s Army Chief Lieutenant General Shavendra Silva over accusations of human rights violations, including extrajudicial execution of unarmed rebels and systematic torture of people in government custody [see AiR No. 7, February/2020, 3]. In March, then, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa pardoned and released an army officer sentenced to death for killing civilians, including children. The year before, the Supreme Court had unanimously rejected the officer’s appeal and upheld the death penalty [see AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5].

Moreover, the government has rapidly expanded the military’s control over numerous aspects of civilian life, including policing, the COVID-19 response, and the supervision of nongovernmental organizations. In June, the president created a task force with the responsibility to maintain national security, discipline and a lawful society. Some members of the task force have been credibly accused of war crimes and other abuses [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2].

Most recently, Sir Lanka’s parliament approved the 20th Constitutional Amendment Bill which concentrates powers under the president and allows duel citizens to hold political office, which could strengthen Rajapaksa’s familial political clout [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. Raising concerns over the impact the amendment will have on the independence of key institutions, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet in September called for ‘renewed attention’ to increasing intimidation of journalists, lawyers and rights activists in Sri Lanka [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].

In fact, Sri Lankan rights groups have recorded an increase in intimidation and targeted detention of minority Tamil and Muslim communities, lawyers, journalists, and activists in the past year [see e.g. AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4, AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1, AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1].

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Court summons exiled opposition party members in effort to deter

(jn) A Phnom Penh court last Tuesday issued summons to 59 exiled Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) Members for treason and incitement charges, a move criticized by opponents of Prime Minister Hun Sen, and observers as politically motivated to prevent the accused from returning to Cambodia. The summons address among others 13 senior officials, including interim-party leader Sam Rainsy and his wife, all of whom fled overseas in fear of persecution in the aftermath of the CNRP’s banning in 2017.

In November 2017, Cambodia’s Supreme Court dissolved CNRP after its leader Kem Sokha was arrested for his alleged coup plan to topple Hun Sen. Other CNRP members decried Hun Sen for using the court to threaten or silence his opponents. Observers viewed the move as another strategy to prevent CNRP leaders from returning to Cambodia. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Wife of detained dissident injured in staged traffic accident

(jn) The wife of jailed Phnom Penh opposition politician Khem Pheana of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was injured in a staged traffic accident by unidentified assailants that she suspects was meant to discourage her from advocating her husband’s release. On Tuesday, three men drove a motorbike into her vehicle on a street in the capital. The perpetrators fled the scene, leaving her with a seriously injured foot. This is the latest incident of at least 20 people affiliated with the CNRP who have been assailed in attacks or beatings [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: Controversial Job Bill officially enacted

(nd) On Monday, president Joko "Jokowi" Widodo officially signed the controversial Job Creation Bill into law, just a few days ahead of the automatic taking effect, 30 days after its passage on October 5.

Different versions were circulated and legal experts already identified several errors in the final paper. [See also AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1] [Jakarta Globe 1]

Shortly thereafter, the Confederation of Indonesian Workers' Unions (KSPI) filed a judicial review with the Constitutional Court. KSPI forms the main opposition against the controversial law, which they argue stripes workers of many of their rights. Together with 32 labor unions and federations, KSPI organized protests in 24 provinces on Monday. [Jakarta Globe 2]

Yet, the president argues the controversial legislation will bring more investments and fight the recession. [See also AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]

Indonesian military suspected to be responsible for pastor's death

(nd) According to a recent investigation by an independent humanitarian team, the Indonesian military is strongly suspected to be responsible for the death of a pastor Yeremia Zanambani on September 19. The principal of the Hitadipa Bible Theology High School in Intan Jaya Regency, Papua, was shot and stabbed in the back in his house.

The result of the earlier investigation team, established by the government and headed by the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, reached a vaguer conclusion, claiming the responsibility security forces or a third party, a term that usually refers to the Free Papua Movement (OPM). 

According to a report by human rights group Amnesty International Indonesia, 2020 saw 15 deadly incidents killing 22 people in Papua, with most of the perpetrators suspected to be police or armed forces personnel. It was also claimed that these incidents were not properly or not at all investigated. Those findings and the sparking notion of covering up violence in Papua will make the situation more difficult for the Indonesian government. It will increase existing distrust in the central government, and might fuel ongoing separatist movements. [Tempo][See also AiR No 38, September/2020, 4]

Indonesia to experience first recession in 20 years

(nd) Indonesia experiences the first recession since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Tourism, construction, and trade were hit the hardest with a 3.49% drop in the third quarter, the second consecutive quarter to see a contraction. Analysts see brighter figures for the upcoming quarter but warn that recovery will be slow.

To curb repercussions of Covid-19, the central bank cut interest rates several times this year, while the government announced a stimulus of US$48 billion following a large-scale shutdown, which laid off many workers. Indonesia is still among the worst hit Asian countries, despite having the lowest testing rates. President Joko Widodo was therefore criticized for prioritizing the economy in fighting the pandemic. [South China Morning Post]

Laos: Demands to investigate pollution from Chinese and Vietnamese farms

(py) Residents of southeastern Laos’ Sekong province urged government authorities to investigate Chinese and Vietnamese-owned farms over their extensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.  An official of the Department of Planning and Investment announced to investigate, adding that due to the COVID-19 pandemic many investors have not returned to Laos. The concerned banana plantations contributed to US$ 100 million in annual export in 2017 and are a major source of employment in rural Laos. Yet, banana farming is infamous for illness and deaths among workers due to an exposure to chemicals. Additionally, the run-off from the farms polluted near water sources, killing fish and contaminating drinking water. [Radio Free Asia] [China Dialogue]

Malaysia: Budget for 2021 revealed

(nd) Amid ongoing political uncertainty over the power struggle in parliament, the government revealed an expansionary budget to boost the local economy and curb repercussions of Covid-19. The passage of the budget is important for incumbent Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, as a rejection of the budget would amount to a no confidence vote for his government, causing more instability. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim called the calculation unrealistic with regards to the prospected growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) and announced to deny support if his concerns weren't addressed.

Malaysia's trade-reliant economy was hit hard by the pandemic, caused its gross domestic product (GDP) to drop 17.1 per cent. Spending was increased by 2.5 per cent to RM322.5 billion, with a fiscal deficit expected 6 per cent this year, the highest number since 2009. In a governmental comment, the pandemic, geopolitical tensions and weak commodity prices were named as downside risks. [Malaymail] [Daily Express]

Myanmar: National League for Democracy claims victory in election

(lf) In the second election after the end of military rule, the Daw Aung Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD) claims victory on Tuesday for disposing of the necessary 322 seats needed to form a majority government, referring to an unofficial vote count. Official election results by the Union Election Commission are yet to be announced, with the unofficial results likely to be confirmed.

In Sunday's election, from the total seats of 425 of the Lower House and 217 of the Upper House, 315 respectively 161 were open for civilian candidates to obtain. The remaining 25% of seats are reserved for members of the military. In the 2015 election, the NLD had won 255 out of 333 seats in the Lower House and 135 out of 168 in the Upper house, making up for a landslide victory over the military proxy party, which had won rigged elections in 2010. The president will be chosen as soon as the counting of the votes has been finalized, in a joined session between the Upper and the Lower House.

The high voter turnout despite the pandemic showed the commitment of many citizens for greater democratic transition. While the Sunday election has been largely viewed as a referendum for the NLD’s governance over the last five years, Daw Aung Suu Kyi remains largely popular with the majority Buddhist Burman population, despite the international decline in her popularity due to the ongoing Rohingya crisis.  [Irrawaddy 1]

In Mon state the NLD won 30 out of 45 majority seats, however, some seats were lost to the ethnic Mon Unity Party, which won 11 seats. In the Ayeyarwady Region, where the most populous city Yangon is located, the NLD won all but two ethnic minister seats, defeating their main opponent, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). In the capital city region of Naypyitaw, the NLD is currently leading in all townships according to preliminary counting, except the military stronghold of Zeyarthi, where the USDP has won the Lower House seat. In Karen and Chin state the NLD is expected to win the majority of seats as well.  [Irrawaddy 2] [Irrawaddy 3] [Irrawaddy 4]

In conflict-prone Rakhine state, the ethnic Arakan National Party (ANP) has won the majority of the constituency, even though only 25% of the population had been allowed to participate in the election due to ongoing conflicts. [Irrawaddy 5]

In comparison to the 2015 elections, which were a beacon of hope for the democratization process in Myanmar, this year’s election has been held in a situation of crisis. Due to rising insurgency and conflict between minority groups and the Tatmadaw 1,5 million people have been excluded from voting. [See also AiR No. 42, October/ 2020, 3] Human Rights Watch has called the electoral system inherently flawed and undemocratic due to a reservation of seats for the military, unequal access to state media for parties, as well as the exclusion of parts of the population from voting. However, two large observer groups, PACE and Japanese observer groups, announced that the election was conducted free and fair. [Reuters 1][Nikkei] Human Rights Watch][New York Times] [Irrawaddy 6]

Still, grave concerns remain, with the country’s ethnic groups having been largely marginalized in the political field. In order to reduce conflict, the NLD will have to implement greater recognition and political participation possibilities for ethnic minorities. [Reuters 2]

Analysts emphasized the importance of a strong NLD basis to counterbalance the influence of the military on politics, while it was criticized that the party has not achieved significant progress on the democratic transition. Although new parties have emerged, voters still perceive their vote as a choice between NLD and the military-backed opposition, USDP. While 90 parties that ran campaigns, they obviously did not manage to form a substantial opposition, with only the ethnic parties winning votes in certain states.

According to critics, Suu Kyi has organized the NLD in a strict, authoritarian way and did not challenge the military far enough, especially with regards to the Rohingya crisis, for which Myanmar is facing genocide charges at the International Criminal Court. Few of the Rohingyas, living in camps in Rakhine state, were able to cast their vote, which prompted the Democracy and Human Rights Party, a Rohingya political party, to comment this illustrated the “normalization” of their exclusion and an “apartheid” system.

In light of the ongoing conflicts in Rakhine state between the Burmese Army and the Arakan Army [See also AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2], it remains a key question whether NLD will manage to include ethnic parties into the government to ease tension. [South China Morning Post]

Myanmar government speaks out against military statement

(lf) Myanmar’s government has strongly condemned criticism of the military against the Union Election Commission (UEC). The criticism incites instability and raises public concern, which is counterproductive to holding free and fair elections, the government argued. The military had previously accused the UEC of incompetence, particularly with regards to the creation of voter lists and early voting procedures. [Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Rise in hate speech during election campaign

(lf) The Burman Human Rights Network (BHRN) has identified a rise in hate speech during the election campaign period. BHRN accounts for 39 incidents of hate speech, bigotry and misinformation spread on social media by supporters of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), inter alia accusing the National League for Democracy (NLD) of conspiring with Muslims. The posts have had considerable outreach, as they were shared over 2,000 times, and prompted the NLD to distance themselves from the Muslim population. The BHRN further states that the government has failed to improve citizen participation and has actively restrained the rights of minorities. [Radio Free Asia] [See also AiR No.42, October/2020,3, AiR No.41, October/ 2020,2]

Myanmar: No word heard of abducted candidates

(lf) The government has voiced great concern about the lives of the three candidates who were abducted in October. Nothing was heard from them in the past three weeks. Last year, three members of the NLD have been abducted. One of them died while being held by the Arakan Army, with the circumstances of his death remaining unclear. [Irrawaddy] [See alsoAiR No.42, October/ 2020, 3, AiR No.43, October/ 2020, 4]

Myanmar: Representative of military party faces election fraud trial

(lf) A representative of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) faces legal action over electoral fraud, for faking a stamp used to mark ballots. Three ballots from the early voting procedure were rejected by the Union Election Commission. [Irrawaddy]

Philippines: Sinas appointed Chief of Police

(nd) Police Major General Debold Sinas was appointed as chief of the Philippine National Police (PNP) by President Rodrigo Duterte, to succeed Lt. Gen. Camilo Cascolan on November 10, taking into consideration Sina's contribution to the war on drugs.

Sina graduated from the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) in 1987, and currently serves as director of the National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO). Sina was criticized for violating rules of social distancing after pictures of his birthday celebration circulated virally this May, and is also facing charges for the action. [Manila Bulletin]

Human rights groups Karapatan and Amnesty International both criticized his appointment, commenting it fits into Duterte's culture of impunity and tolerance, even promotion of violence. Sina is closely linked with the violence and killings in Central Visayas, in which no one was held responsible, according to the regional office of the Commission on Human Rights. During his tenure, at least 320 killings were recorded in Cebu, with at least 120 during police operations. [Rappler]

Philippines: Push to use domestic election systems

(nd) Sixty organizations and seventy individuals urged the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to use an alternative automated election system (AES), which is more accurate, transparent and Filipino-made for the local and national polls in May 2020. Currently, London-headquartered Smartmatic provides the AES, which was criticized inter alia for changing the transparency server script on the evening of election day, without authorization by the Comelec En Banc, as required by the Election Law, arguably eroding trust in the reliability of the voting result.

A Comelec Spokesman announced last month the present vote counting machine provided by Smartmatic will be used for the elections in 2022. [Manila Bulletin]

Philippines: Journalist shot dead

(nd) A Filipino journalist was shot dead six times by motorcycle-riding gunmen. The commentator for radio station DWPR in the northern province of Pangasinan survived a previous attempt outside his home in 2016. According to the National Union of Journalists of the Philippines (NUJP), it was the 18th such killing since President Rodrigo Duterte took power in 2016. The Philippines ranks seventh in New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists' annual Global Impunity Index. [Bangkok Post]

Philippines: 8,000 killed in drug war, government figures state

(nd) According to the Chief of Philippines National Police, 8,000 people have been killed in the Philippines’ controversial war on drugs since 2016, with 357,000 people arrested. He announced the operations will continue. While the government claims it is fighting drug crime, the operations were heavily criticized by human rights groups. Human Rights Watch (HRW) claimed earlier more than 12,000 lives were taken, mostly from urban poor groups, among those at least 2,555 were attributed to unlawful killings by the police. [Anadolu Agency]

Singapore: Strengthening financial hub status

(py) In order to maintain and extend its status as financial hub, Singapore will fight harder against professional misconduct. According to a report of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), it will focus on financial institutions which lack rigorous systems and processes for handling money laundering and countering terrorist financing. MAS commented on the complex nature of investigations, considering technology advances, multi-jurisdictional involvment and complexity of financial products. [South China Morning Post] As a means to curb large denominations often connected to illegal financing and money-laundering, MAS will stop issuing the $1000 note from January next year. [The Strait Times]

In November 2019, the regulator imposed a S$11.2 million fine on UBS Group AG for deceptive trades by its client advisers. The local unit of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also last month agreed to pay $112 million to the Singapore government for its involvement in Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal. [Bloomberg]

Thailand: Ongoing protests

(nd) Pressure on prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is mounting as protest groups as well as opposition party Pheu Thai refuse to participate in his proposed reconciliation process, referring to the prime minister as biggest obstacle to finding a solution amid calls for his resignation. [Thai Examiner 1] [Bangkok Post 1]

Tuesday, after the release of four co-leaders of the protests following a court denial of a police request for their continued detention, human rights lawyer Anon Nampa renewed demands for the prime minister's resignation, and a constitutional and monarchy reform. [Khaosod] [Prachatai 1]

Meanwhile, a civil defamation lawsuit has been filed by Thai human rights activists. Allegedly, the Office of the Prime Minister published misleading information on a blog website, including denying the existence of human right violations. The site was called puliny.blogspot.com and is now offline. The lawsuit is brought against Prayuth, and the Army as co-defendant. [Thaiger]

According to a recent opinion poll conducted by Super Poll, a majority of respondents think that the unity of the country is being targeted by organized outside forces, blaming a non-friendly foreign government for the student-led protests, working through mass media and social networks. [Thai Examiner 2] On Sunday, a poll conducted by Suan Dusit University showed that over 51% of the respondents deemed the special parliamentary session futile and a way to buy time for the government. A professor of the university commented, the lack of results of the session indicates a failure of the Thai parliamentary system to contribute solutions in times of political crisis. [Bangkok Post 2]

Meanwhile, the House Committee on Labour and individual MPs have received petitions from university students, reporting on potential discrimination with regards to internship opportunities, and police and military surveillance and questioning due to their participation in the student protests.

With regards to incidents in the south of the country, in which police looked for students at their places for questioning, officials referred to the emergency decree, that has been in force in the region for 16 years to suppress insurgents, to justify their actions. Allegedly, alumni the Faculty of Social Administration of Thammasat University are worried about students’ participation in the protests, resulting in an attitude not benefitting a career in social administration, according to a leaked photo of a Line chat. [Prachatai 2]

At a rally on Sunday, police used water cannons against an estimated 10,000 of protesters, who marched to the Grand Palace to deliver letters to the king containing their ideas about a reform on the monarchy. [Channel News Asia] Also on Sunday, royalist protesters announced they intend to submit letters to the prime minister and army chief to call for a power seizure. [Bangkok Post]

So far, no violent crackdown on protesters occurred, but rather several criminal charges mostly aimed at protest leaders, who were released in the meantime.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China: Powers of coastguard to be expanded

(dql) China’s legislature last week issued a draft law to reform the country’s maritime law and to expand the powers of China’s coastguard. Among others, the revised law would allow the coastguard to use weapons against foreign ships deemed to be involved in unlawful activities in the country’s waters. It also authorizes other measures, including detention and towing, to be taken against foreign vessels considered to have illegally entered Chinese waters as well as the dismantling of buildings and structures and deployment of floating devices on islands claimed by China. [Nikkei Asian Review] [South China Morning Post]

The Chinese coastguard was re-established in 2013 as the sole civilian law enforcer on the sea after a merger with other maritime administrative institutions, in a move to integrate China’s maritime forces. In 2018 civilian control of the coastguard shifted to military control, placing it under the command of the Central Military Commission.

China sends ‘6G” experimental satellite into orbit

(dql) Last week China launched a Long March 6 rocket, successfully sending 13 satellites into orbit. Among the satellites was one remote sensing satellite whose platform will also test communication technology operating in the terahertz range, a potential successor to 5G communications. [Space.com]

The launch marks China’s 32nd launch so far in 2020.

Chinese state media on Biden’s election: China-US relations not to improve

(dql) While the Chinese government has yet been silent on Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, Chinese state media were quick comment on Sino-US relations under the new president. Global Times cited Chinese scholars cautioning against “put[ting] too much expectation on Biden,” arguing that “to contain and confront China is a strategic consensus between the two parties of the US." Similarly, an editorial in China Daily suggests that improving relations with China is currently out of question for both the Democrat and Republican Party alike.” [Global Times] [China Daily]

While Biden has not laid out a detailed China strategy, statements made during the election campaign indicate that he will continue Donald Trump’s tough approach towards China. Calling Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug,” he pledged to push for an international campaign to “pressure, isolate and punish China.” He labeled Beijing’s actions against Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang a “genocide,” calling for a “united front of U.S. allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviors and human rights violations.” [Reuters]

China-US relations: Pompeo removes East Turkestan Islamic Movement from US terror list, imposes sanctions against Hong Kong officials

(dql) US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced  that the US will no longer designate the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) as a "terrorist organization" and remove it from its terror list, citing the lack of evidence of the group’s existence for more than a decade. Under its ‘war on terror’, the US listed ETIM as a terrorist group in 2004.

ETIM, an Islamic extremist organization founded by Uyghur jihadists in Western China, is accused by Beijing of separatism and terrorist attacks in Xinjiang. [Aljazeera]

While US-based Uyghur Human Rights Project welcomed the decision as “long-overdue”, critics see it as “inherently political,” following “a long-established pattern” of defining terrorism according to geopolitical preferences. [UHRP] [RT]

Meanwhile, Pompeo announced that sanctions have been levied against four Chinese officials belonging Hong Kong’s security establishment over their alleged role in the implementation of China’s National Security Law in Hong Kong. The sanctioned include the deputy director of the Office for Safeguarding National Security, newly established under the law, the head of the National Security Division of the Hong Kong Police Force, a senior superintendent, and the deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office. Under the sanctions they are banned from entering the US while their assets within US jurisdiction are blocked. [VoA]

In an earlier move, similar sanctions were imposed on Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam and other high-ranking officials in August. [AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]

Cross-strait relations: Taiwan not invited to WHA

(dql/ef) Taiwan has blamed China for obstructing its participation as an observer in the meeting of the World Health Assembly (WHA), the World Health Organization’s decision-making body, which started on Monday and is expected to sign a draft resolution on tackling health emergencies. It also criticized the WHO for “continuing to neglect the health and human rights of Taiwan’s 23.5 million people.” [Aljazeera]

Along with the US, hundreds of parliamentarians from European and Latin American countries as members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) had called for Taiwan to be included in the virtual meeting, citing Taiwan’s exemplary performance during the pandemic. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Focus Taiwan 2] [Focus Taiwan 3]

China-Australia relations further spiraling downwards

(dql) In a move further worsening already soured relations between China and Australia, the latter is expected to sign a defense pact with Japan during Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s planned visit to Tokyo in the next weeks. The pact is believed to contain a reciprocal agreement to permit the two countries to base troops in each other’s territory, as well as mutual training arrangements. [The Times]

The pact comes at a time when Chinese-Australian relations are declining to historical lows, with Beijing increasing economic pressure on Canberra since it has called for a full investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in April. Currently China is threatening to ban the import of at least seven Australian commodities, worth 6 billion USD. [7 News]

Meanwhile, the Australian navy joined Indian, Japanese, and American warships for the Malabar exercises that kicked off last week in the Indian Ocean. Canberra’s participation after a hiatus of 13 years is a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four Quad-countries in the face of China’s assertiveness in Asia.

Conducted for the first time in 1992 as a bilateral India-US drill, Japan joined the drills as permanent member in 2015. India’s decision to include Australia in this year come against the background of its six-month long military standoff with China in the Himalayas. [VoA]

For an account of the deterioration of Chinese-Australian relations over the course of this year, see Eleanor Albert in [The Diplomat].

China: South American countries agree to jointly fight Chinese illegal fishing

(dql) In attempt to combat illegal fishing by huge Chinese fleets off their coasts, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have announced to join hands to take measures to “to prevent, discourage and jointly confront” illegal fishing near their exclusive economic zones in the Pacific. The South American countries also agreed to strengthen information exchange “in real time.” [Merco Press]

The announcement comes amid growing concerns over overfishing and capture of endangered species by China, after some 300 Chinese fishing vessels swarmed around the Galápagos Islands from July to September. They are believed to have logged more than 73.000 hours of fishing between July 13 and August 13 which accounts for 99% of the fishing activity on the Galapagos Marine Reserve’s per perimeter. [AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]

Taiwan-US relations: US marines arrive in Taiwan of first army training in four decades

(dql) Amid frosty cross-strait relations and China-US relations over Taiwan, Taipei confirmed that US marines arrived in Taiwan to train Taiwanese soldiers, marking the first public acknowledgment of a US Marines training in Taiwan since the US and Taiwan ceased bilateral ties in 1979. The four-week training covers exercises in assault boat and speedboat infiltration operations at a naval base in Southern Taiwan. [Taiwan News]

The arrival of the US marines comes after the US Department of State has approved several arms sales to Taiwan in recent weeks, worth five billion USD. [AA] [AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]

Japan-US relations: Negotiations on cost-sharing for hosting US troops in Japan to being this week

(dql) With the current five-year cost-sharing deal ending next March, Japan and the US are set to start talks over cost-sharing for the stationing of 55,000 American troops in Japan later this week.  

So far, Japan has paid nearly 1.9 billion USD per year in so-called host-nation support to cover utility and labor costs for US bases, along with outlays for relocating training exercises away from populated areas.

In November, US President Donald Trump demanded a four-fold increase of Japan’s annual share. [Kyodo News] [Foreign Policy]

Japan-South Korea relations: Legal process to liquidate Mitsubishi’s assets to compensate wartime forced laborers continues

(dql) On Tuesday, a public notice by a court took effect to proceed with a stalled legal process to liquidate assets of Japanese Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd and compensate South Korean victims of wartime forced labor.

In November 2018, South Korea’s Supreme court upheld an appellate court's verdict to order Mitsubishi to pay compensation to five plaintiffs. The Japanese company failed to respond to a ruling, in response to which the victims requested a district court in March 2019 to seize the company's assets in Korea, including two trademark rights and six patents, in a bid to push ahead with the compensation. [Korea Herald]

Since the 2018 ruling, Japan and South Korea have been locked in a stalemate over the forced labor issue. Japan consistently refuses to accept the Supreme Court’s ruling and uncompromisingly maintains its position that the forced labor issue was already settled in the 1965 Treaty on Basic Relations between both countries under which Japan provided financial aid to South Korea. Seoul, on the other side, upholds its position not to interfere in the country's judiciary.  

India, China: Breakthrough eludes eighth round of border talks

(lm) A breakthrough eluded senior Indian and Chinese military commanders who met on November 6 for the next round of military talks. On a more positive note, both sides agreed to ensure that their frontline troops exercise restraint and further agreed to have another round of meetings. It is worth noting that the Indian delegation was no longer led by Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, who had hitherto represented the Indian Army but was appointed Commandant of the Indian Military Academy earlier. [The Tribune] [The Hindu]

The eighth round of talks assumed added significance as any large-scale redeployment of troops or de-induction will need to be carried out before heavy winter sets in. With rivers freezing, by mid-November travel within Ladakh will be easy but snow will block roads to the region, leaving airlifts as the only means of transporting troops and supplies in and out. Notwithstanding the ongoing talks to resolve the border issue, both armies thus continue preparing for an extended winter deployment in mostly uninhabited terrain. [Mint] [Times Now News]

The Indian Army has received the initial consignment of extreme cold weather clothing from the United States [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. Moreover, New Delhi deployed two additional divisions from plains, as well as one mountain division which has been training for high-altitude operations, to the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In the same vein, China has shortlisted nearly two dozen private companies to supply advanced unmanned weaponry and graphene clothing to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) regiments deployed along the long high-altitude border areas with India. Against this backdrop, the troop deployment by both sides is very unlikely to be diluted, as a militarized line separating the two requires more than just tiding over the logistics this winter. [Hindustan Times] [The Times of India]

The current situation also found mention in remarks made by India’s Chief of Defense Staff Bipin Rawat in his address at New Delhi's National Defense College on November 6. While indicating that a full-scale military confrontation with Beijing was low on probability, Rawat cautioned that ‘border confrontations, transgressions, unprovoked tactical military actions’ could spiral into a larger conflict. Further elaborating on the issue, the Chief of Defense Staff said that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) was going to face ‘unanticipated consequences’, as New Delhi would not accept any shift in the LAC. [The Straits Times]

During the previous meeting held on October 12, both sides had agreed to firm up a roadmap for defusing tensions along the LAC. The proposals included earmarking all friction points as demilitarized areas with mutually agreeable buffer zones created between the two armies, and delineating the limit of patrolling accordingly to prevent any escalation [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. The major friction points along the de-facto border include the Finger 4 area of Pangong Tso (a glacial lake at 4,242m), certain key features on the southern bank of the lake, the Y-junction at Depsang Plains, as well as the Galwan Valley and Hot Springs areas. [The Print 1]

Beijing had also presented a consolidated proposal, which included withdrawing tanks and artillery guns from forward positions back to their peacetime locations, Indian troops vacating strategic heights in the southern banks of Pangong Tso lake and making Finger 4 in the northern banks a no-go area. On its part, the Indian side had demanded a comprehensive disengagement of troops from all friction points, including the Depsang Plains. Read between the lines, China seems focused only on the southern banks of Pangong Tso and is offering partial withdrawal from northern banks as a sweetener. [The Print 2]

Against this backdrop, it is worth recalling that the high-altitude standoff began in early May, when New Delhi was surprised to find China’s army had built forward bases, occupied mountaintops and deployed thousands of troops to prevent Indian patrols [see AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1, AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2]. By July, talks to restore peace and smoothen bilateral relations had hit a roadblock, as both sides continued to deploy additional weapons and troops, already preparing for the long-haul. While Chinese troops had disengaged and retreated from the Galwan Valley and Hot Springs, they fortified their positions at the Pangong Tso Finger area, reinforcing physical infrastructure and airlifting additional troops [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4].

On the night of August 29, then, India surprised China, mobilizing additional forces to occupy strategic heights and features along the south bank of Pangong Tso. Thousands of Indian soldiers had climbed up mountain peaks along a stretch of more than 40 square kilometers for about six hours after they saw the Chinese forces had made some ingress, violating existing agreements. China was swift to reject the allegations and accused Indian soldiers of trespassing [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1].

The bottom line is that China has pushed further into territory once patrolled exclusively by India and is now occupying about 50 square kilometers of land at Pangong Tso and another 250 in the Depsang Plains, according to Indian officials. [South China Morning Post]

Bangladesh aims to establish rail and road links to China

(lm) Bangladesh has approached the Chinese embassy in Dhaka for establishing rail and road links between the two countries via Myanmar, Bangladesh’s Minister for Foreign Affairs said on October 29. While speaking at a webinar organized by a local think tank, he also fenced off claims that Bangladesh was falling into a Chinese ‘debt trap.” Further elaborating on the issue, the minister also said that Chinese loans only comprise a small fraction of Bangladesh’s total foreign debt. [The Policy Times] [The Daily Star]

In August, talks between Bangladesh and China on a loan deal to implement a proposed irrigation project on the Teesta River had entered an advanced stage, leaving flat India which had hitherto initiated a series of measures to regain long-standing good relations with its eastern neighbor [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4]

While the rejuvenation project marks the first time that Beijing constructs a mega river management project in Bangladesh, it is just the latest in a series of events making China the largest investor in Bangladesh. For a start, in June, China announced it would provide duty free market access for 97 percent of Bangladeshi goods [see AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]. Outdoing India, China then won the tender to build an airport terminal at Sylhet last month, and was able to conclude several defense agreements — which include an ultra-modern submarine base, a new naval base in Patkhauli and the delivery of a Chinese Corvette. [AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]

Pakistan, European Union hold 5th Strategic Dialogue

(lm) The European Union and Pakistan on Wednesday held their 5th round of the EU-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue through video conference. [Associated Press of Pakistan]

In a nod to recent remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron on Islam [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1], Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi raised deep concerns over the ‘resurgence of Islamophobic acts’ in some EU Member States that had hurt the sentiments of Muslims across the world, including in Pakistan, according to Qureshi. Defending the European position on the issue, High Representative of the European Union Joseph Borrell said, individual rights and freedom were ‘central’ to the European society based on secular values - a model, he said, often ‘difficult’ to be understood in societies whose values differ from Europe’s.

To further their engagement, both sides also agreed to hold the first meeting of the new EU-Pakistan Security Dialogue in 2021. Pakistan and the EU had last year signed a Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) to provide a framework for greater cooperation and stronger ties between the two sides [see AiR (4/6/2019)]. [Dawn]

India, Sri Lanka: Local political leaders call on central government to prevent destruction of fishing boats

(ng) Leaders of political parties from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu have called on the central government to take immediate steps to ensure the release of 121 Indian mechanized fishing boats belonging to local fishermen and held by Sri Lankan authorities. Previously, a Sri Lankan court has reportedly permitted authorities to destroy boats that were seized between 2015 and 2018 for allegedly illegally crossing into the Sri Lankan waters. [The Times of India] [Deccan Herald]

In September, the Sri Lankan government pledged to take measures aimed at preventing frequent poaching by Indian fisherman in the island nation’s territorial waters. Before, fishermen in the Tamil-majority Northern Province had launched a protest demanding Fisheries authorities to take actions against intruding Indian trawlers. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

Bangladesh, United States: Navies conduct annual CARAT exercise

(lm) The navies of the United States and Bangladesh have conducted their annual ‘Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) Bangladesh 2020’ exercise. To mitigate COVID-19 risks, many of the engagements took place virtually, for the US and Bangladesh to share best practices and carry on discussions in a live forum. Still, an at-sea phase took place in the Bay of Bengal with ships and from both partner militaries that included events designed to enhance interoperability between the two navies.

CARAT is a series of annual bilateral military exercises conducted by the United States Pacific Fleet with a hosting Indo-Pacific country. Bangladesh marks the second CARAT exercise in 2020, following CARAT Brunei in the South China Sea last month. While COVID-19 has deferred most of the CARAT exercises in other countries scheduled for this year (Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Thailand, Timor-Leste), a CARAT exercise is scheduled to take place with Singapore in December. [CPF] [EurAsian Times]

India, Italy sign 15 Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen bilateral ties

(lm) A virtual bilateral summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Italian counterpart Giuseppe Conte on November 6 has resulted in the signing of 15 agreements in various sectors ranging from trade and investment to infrastructure. Coming in the wake of bilateral summits with the European Union and Denmark [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5], the meeting is the latest in a string of virtual engagements by Modi aimed at deepening political and economic ties with European nations. Leading European nations, such as Germany and France, have also signaled a greater interest in the Indo-Pacific region [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Hindustan Times] 

In an effort to increase Italian investments in India, Italian gas group Snam and India’s Adani signed a series of deals involving hydrogen and low-carbon mobility projects. Europe’s biggest gas transport group also reached an agreement with state-owned Indian Oil to work on energy transition projects, including gas storage and regasification. Rome is currently New Dehli’s fifth largest trading partner in the European Union. [Reuters]

China, Nepal deny Nepali opposition's landgrab accusations

(lm) China and Nepal denied on November 3 accusations of Nepali opposition lawmakers who alleged Beijing had annexed dozens of hectares from the district of Humla bordering Tibet, beginning in May. [The Straits Times]

Earlier this month, a fact-finding team of Nepal’s main opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC), had visited the northern border of Nepal and concluded that China has in fact encroached approximately two kilometers of Nepali land. Thereafter, the NC accused the ruling Nepal Communist Party’s (NCP) of trying to cover-up the issue by ignoring accumulated evidence. [AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]

In September, Nepal's Foreign Ministry announced an inter-ministerial team in 2016 had already found the buildings to be sited one kilometer within Chinese territory [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. Following the announcement, students in the Nepalese capital Kathmandu staged protests in front of the Chinese embassy [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

Russia approves new structure for North-South Gas Pipeline with Pakistan

(lm) Russia has provided a new structure for the North-South Gas Pipeline Project (NSGPP), offering Russian companies TMK (global supplier of tubular products) and ETK (trader in chemicals) under its Federal State Unitary Enterprises (FSUE) scheme. A Russian delegation with representatives is expected to visit Pakistan later this month to negotiate changes in the Inter-Governmental Agreement to account for changes in the capital structure. [The International News]

Signed in 2015, the $2.25 billion project passes through the provinces of Sindh and Punjab, taking an east-ward route. In the past, it has faced delays due to US sanctions against the Russian state-owned conglomerate Rostec and a dispute over transport fees. Since then, the Russian side has changed the structure of the firm six times to avoid sanctions but no success has been achieved so far. [The Express Tribune]

In the run-up to the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow earlier this year, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said the completion of the NSGPP was a priority for both countries. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

Last month, Pakistan’s Federal Energy Minister said the country’s indigenous gas reserves located in the provinces of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were rapidly depleting. To compensate, Pakistan is predicted to be in need of importing 400,000 Metric Tonnes (MT) liquefied petroleum gas during four months of the current winter season to meet the requirements of consumers. Already, Pakistan’s largest integrated gas company, Sui Northern Gas Company, is relying excessively on the import of Renewable Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG). [pt Profit] [Link News] [Dawn]

Making matters worse, ExxonMobil has pulled out of a deal with the Pakistani consortium Energas for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal near Karachi. In 2018, the US energy giant had signed an agreement with Energas to support the development of Pakistan’s third LNG import terminal. [Hellenic Shipping News]

In a related development, the federal government is advancing plans for two main gas transmission pipelines to connect LNG import terminals located on the Arabian Sea coast with major inland cities including Lahore, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi. [Pipeline Technology Journal]

Battling to bring a gaping current account deficit under control, Pakistan seeks rollover of foreign loans

(lm) As the second tranche of a $3 billion loan from Saudi Arabia is maturing next month, Islamabad is looking for various options to retain its dwindling foreign currency reserves estimated at $12.2 billion.

In this context, Pakistan has forwarded a formal request for granting a rollover of a $2 billion Saudi loan. The loan was part of a $6.2 billion financial assistance package announced by Saudi Arabia in November 2018, when Islamabad was struggling with rapidly expanding trade deficit and declining foreign reserves. The package included $3 billion in cash assistance and a $3.2 billion worth of annual oil and gas supply on deferred payments [see AiR (5/10/2018)]. Islamabad has already paid back 1$ billion out of the $3 billion in May this year, while $2 billion are still with the State Bank of Pakistan. Further, Islamabad has sought rollover of a $2 billion deposit loan obtained from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for another year. [The News]

In August, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had expressed frustration over the inaction of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and Saudi Arabia, insisting that the OIC was not doing enough to pressure India on the Kashmir issue. Threatening to bypass the OIC, Qureshi also said that Islamabad was willing to proceed ‘with or without’ support from Riyadh. In response, Saudi Arabia withdrew a $1 billion interest-free loan, and further demanded another $1 billion. At the time, China had come forward and extended $1 billion in loan to help Islamabad avoid any adverse impact of the partial withdrawal of the Saudi lifeline. [AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]

Moreover, Pakistan decided on November 7 to seek a rollover of a $3 billion Chinese trade finance facility, which is scheduled to mature in May next year. The bilateral currency swap agreement (CSA) was signed between the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) in December 2011. Originally meant to promote bilateral trade, Islamabad, however, utilized the additional trade finance facility available under the CSA to repay maturing foreign debt and keeping its foreign currency reserves at comfortable levels. In the event Pakistan fails to secure a third extension, the SBP will be liable to repay Beijing $3 billion by using dollars to buy Chinese yuan, a move that analysts say will certainly affect the country’s foreign reserves. [The Express Tribune] [The Economic Times] [Pakistan Today]

To date, Islamabad has been unable to restore the $6 billion bailout program of the International Monetary Fund, which was suspended in April after Pakistan failed to meet all requirements [see AiR No. 14, April/2020, 1]. Later the same month, the IMF approved an additional $1.4 billion loan for Pakistan to meet the balance of payment needs after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, members of the G-20 decided to include Islamabad in a debt relief plan, repackaging payments due between May and December 2020 [see AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3].

Russia, Pakistan hold small-scale joint military exercise

(lm) A contingent of 150 members of the Russian Army has arrived in Pakistan to participate in the annual installment of the joint training exercise ‘DRUHZBA-5’. Established in 2016, the drills aim at enhancing compatibility between the two armies in counter-terrorism and special operations. [The Express Tribune] [The EurAsian Times]

In September, a contingent of the Pakistan armed forces participated in the opening ceremony of the Russian-led military exercise Kavkaz 2020 in Astrakhan in southern Russia. [AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]

Pakistan: Military to brief parliamentarians on national security situation

(lm) Military officials will brief lawmakers of both upper and lower houses of parliament on matters related to national security in Islamabad on Wednesday, November 12. [The Express Tribune]

In September, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa had stressed the need to enhance the military’s combat readiness to better respond to 5th generation and hybrid warfare tactics [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. At the time, increased ceasefire violations committed by the Indian military along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, which is divided between India and Pakistan and claimed by both in its entirety, as well as human rights violations in the disputed territories were noted as major causes of concern for regional peace and stability. [AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]

India steps up military diplomacy, adds more seats to National Defense College

(lm) The number of seats in India’s prestigious strategic leadership institution, the National Defense College (NDC), will be increased by 20 by 2022. As a result, the allocation for friendly foreign nations, such as Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh, will be increased. Moreover, new seats are also being planned for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Philippines, Indonesia and Maldives. [The Print] [Business Insider]

Sanctioned in 1959, the New Delhi-based NDC is the highest seat of strategic learning for officers of the Indian Armed forces and civil services. It has a current intake of 100 participants for its annual strategic leadership course, 25 of which are officers from friendly foreign nations. Indian officers also attend such courses in the United Kin

Laos: Transmission lines to Cambodia officially launched

(py) Transmission lines to export electricity to Cambodia, as agreed upon between Electricite Du Laos (EDL) and the Electricite Du Cambodge (EDC), were successfully completed. The 18-kilometer transmission line construction project was an investment by EDL and constructed by Chinese-owned companies YEIG and CGGC. [The Laotian Times] Laos is a major transnational energy provider in the region. Power exports take up around two-thirds of the whole hydropower generation and account for 15% of the country’s export earnings. [Asian Development Bank]

Cambodia: US naval base demolished

(nd) Following a similar action last month [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], another US-built facility at a naval base was demolished according to recent satellite imagery by US researchers. The images circulated by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed a Rigid-Hulled Inflatable Boat maintenance facility at Ream Naval Base, which was standing on October 1, but not anymore on November 4.

Cambodia commented last month, it demolished facilities in order to enable further expansion, at the same time denying reports of Chinese involvement. Claims by Prime Minister Hun Sen, the three-year old facility was taken down for renovation, were deemed unconvincing. Cambodia is a close ally of China and has received political support amid Western criticism as well as billions of dollars of aid. [South China Morning Post]

Vietnam urges adherence to international law and friendly relations

(jn) In a virtual UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung emphasized that countries need to foster friendly relations and adhere to the UN Charter and international law in general, explicitly mentioning the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). He said that the international community was threatened by disrespect for and violations of the core principles of the UN Charter and the UN General Assembly Resolution 2625 on “The Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States. The UNSC’s virtual session on “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Contemporary Drivers of Conflict and Insecurity” took place on November 3rd and was attended by UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohammed. [Vietnam News]

Vietnam-Australia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held

(jn) The Foreign Ministers of Vietnam and Australia on Thursday met virtually for their second annual Vietnam-Australia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that focuses on the pandemic and disputes in the South China Sea. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh of Vietnam and Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne agreed on strengthening bilateral cooperation for the post-pandemic economic recovery and to resume flights at an appropriate time. On the South China Sea subject, both stressed the importance of cooperation, peace and safety of navigation and aviation, and peaceful settlement of disputes based on international law including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. They agreed their respective support of forums like the UN, ASEAN, EAS, and Mekong Sub-region. Concluding, they signed the Action Program to Implement Vietnam-Australia Strategic Partnership until 2023. [vovworld]

ASEAN and China discuss humane mutual treatment of fishermen

(jn) ASEAN members and China discussed ways to promote cooperation in humane treatment of fishermen as part of the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). The DOC of 2002 obligates the parties intensify efforts to build trust and confidence and ensure just and humane treatment of all persons who are either in danger or distress at sea. [Hanoi Times]

Philippines: Resource-rich Reed Bank can be explored without Chinese company

(nd) Following President Rodrigo Duterte's lift of a six-year ban on oil and gas exploration in the contested South China Sea, Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi announced PXP Energy Corp. could proceed without partnering with China. A unit of the company holds the right to drill at the potentially resource-rich Reed Bank - part of the Indonesian EEZ -, which was negotiating with state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp.

The ban was imposed 2014 due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Duterte lifted the moratorium after he defended an international arbitration tribunal’s decision in 2016, which rejected China's claims in the disputed waters. According to Cusi, the lift of the ban has no effect on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China from 2018 to jointly explore the resources in the area. [Radio Free Asia]

Meanwhile, the idea to deploy Filipino fishermen as militia forces in the South China Sea has been put on hold, according to defense officials, referring there was no state of war with China. The idea originated in a Senate finance committee hearing in October. Philippine national security adviser downplayed the security threat posed by China and named the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, New People’s Army, as well as the corona virus pandemic as biggest national threats, highlighting China as a market and economic partnership. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines to support Chinese candidate for ICJ

(nd)  Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin told the UN mission to support the Chinese candidate to fill one of the five vacant seats at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) next year. Earlier, the Philippines  nominated a Japanese Judge, commenting now it is possible to support more than one candidate. The ICJ is composed of 15 judges elected for a nine-year term, with a possible re-election.

President Rodrigo Duterte has been working towards better relations with China, despite disputes in the South China Sea. [South China Morning Post]

Indonesia: Proposition of bilateral trade deals

(nd) Following the renewal of duty-free tariffs under the US' Generalized System of Preference (GSP) scheme [See also AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1], Indonesia plans to propose a bilateral trade deal with the US. Such an agreement could double their trade value to US$60 billion in five years’ time, according to deputy foreign affairs minister.

With regards to China's rising importance in the region, analysts see the GSP status extension as an incentive for Indonesia to move closer to the US. Indonesia has made it clear it does not want to be trapped in US-China rivalries, entertaining necessary relations with both countries. Following China, the US is Indonesia’s second largest trade partner.

Apart from Indonesia, other ASEAN nations that have been granted GSP status are Myanmar, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Thailand, with Thailand's status revoked [See also AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1] and that of the other countries to expire on December 31. A request by Laos to be granted the status was denied following a lack of engagement by the government to improve worker's rights. [South China Morning Post]

Apart from the US, the Indonesian government also pursues a series of trade deals with partners in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. [Jakarta Post]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events

12 November 2020 @ 4.15-6.45 pm ICT, CPG/Asian Governance Foundationa/Hanns Seidel Foundation

Thailand after the Lockdown: The Impact on Thai Society

This online panel discussion will explore the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the Thai society, addressing – among other issues – rising numbers of suicides and domestic violence linked to psychological and economic pressure under the pandemic lockdown.

Find more about the event at [CPG].

11 November 2020 @ 12:00 pm EDT, Hudson Institute, USA

Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: Grand Strategy in a New Age of Geopolitics with Edward Luttwak

This virtual discussion with Edward Luttwak will focus on geopolitical challenges that have emerged in the 21st century, from competition with revisionist powers such as Russia and China to regional crises in the Caucasus and Middle East.

For more information and registration, kindly follow [Hudson]

11 November 2020 @ 3:30 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India

Discussion on ‘Analysing the Bihar Election Result’

This virtual panel will discuss a data-driven analysis of the Bihar assembly election results.

For further details, please see [CPR India].

11 November 2020 @ 8:00 pm UAE, Institute for National Security Studies, Israel

The Abraham Accords: A New Middle East Horizon? UAE Ambassador to the United States in a first appearance before the Israeli public

This interview with H.E. Yousef Al Otaiba, UAE Ambassador to the United States, will focus on the recently-signed Abraham Accords.  

Kindly follow [INSS] for more details.

12 November 2020 @ 3:00 pm CEST, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy

MED Virtual Dialogue with Filippo Grandi, UNHCR

This webinar will feature a conversation with Filippo Grandi, the High Commissioner for Refugees, who has previously been the Deputy Commissior-General of the UNRWA.

If you are interested in joining the event, visit [ISPI] for further information.

12 November 2020 @ 3:00 pm CEST, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden

Israel’s Domestic Political Development

This virtual event will seek to find answers to the questions as to what the socio-political trends in Israel are and whether the occupation is a cleavage defining factor. 

For more information and registration, kindly follow [UI].

13 November 2020 @ 10:00 am CEST, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden

Elections in Eastern Europe: What Paths Lie Ahead?

This webinar will assess the upcoming Georgian election and its similarities and differences with recent elections in Belarus and Ukraine.  

For further details, please see [UI].

13 November 2020 @ 1:00 pm CEST, Bruegel, Belgium

Economic Reform in Belarus: How can we overcome old legacies and dependency and what can Europe do?

This webinar will debate the key economic challenges faced by Belarus including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, directions of economic reforms, and the role of international community.

Please find details here: [Bruegel].

13 November 2020 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, USA

When A Billion People Vote: Managing India’s Democracy

This virtual panel discussion will examine the Indian democratic experient, both its successes and challenges. 

To access the event, please visit [Hudson].

16 November 2020 @ 12:00-1:30 pm EDT, Harvard Kennedy School ASH CENTER for Democratic Government and Information, USA

What Explains the Resilience of Chines Communist Party Rule?  

This event will discuss the shift from the CCP’s use of charismatic authority and the importance of ideology to its manipulation of nationalism, historical justification and cultural appropriation, and its ability to satisfy citizen’s needs and wants through its policies. 

For registration details, please visit [Harvard]

16 - 17 November 2020 @ 15:20-18:15 JST, Asian Development Bank, Japan 

Virtual Workshop on Trans - Caspian Transport Corridor: Infrastructure and Trade 

This workshop will feature new research on the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, its trade and economic potential, and infrastructure expansion challenges and opportunities.

For more details, please visit [ADB]

17 November 2020 @ 3:00 pm CEST, European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany

Fireside Chat with Philip Gordon: Assessing US policy towards the Middle East

The ECFR MENA team will host a fireside chat with Philip H. Gordon, former White House Coordinator for the Middle East and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The discussion will assess potential shifts in US policy across the region after the elections.

To access the seminar, please visit [ECFR].

17 November 2020 @ 3:00-3:45 pm UTC+2, Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark

Rentier infrastructure: Debt, Data, & sovereignty in Kenya 

An explosion of mobile phone-based lending in Kenya is transforming relations between credit and debt, as digital data is used to create credit scores for millions of low-income borrowers.

Please find detail here: [DIIS]

17 November 2020 @ 10:00-10:45 am EDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

Gen. Brown on the Air Force, Equity, and Inclusion  

This August, General Charles Q. Brown, Jr. was sworn in as the first Black chief of a military service in the 245 year history of the United States armed forces. At this online event he will speak about his career, the future of the US Air Force, and equity and inclusion within the military.

For registration details, please visit [Chicago].

17 November 2020 @ 5:30-6:30 pm EDT, Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA

Chronic Disease and COVID -19: Mitigating Collateral Damage from the Pandemic 

At this webinar researchers summarize preliminary results from recent harmonized surveys on the impact of COVID-19 on individuals living with diabetes and hypertension, focusing on their access to medication and other care, loss of household income, (non)adherence to treatment, and worsening of symptoms

For registration details, please visit [Stanford]. 

18 November 2020 @ 5:00-6:00 pm EDT, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer  Center for Science and International Affairs, USA

Israel and Palestine on Screen  

This event will discuss the serial television as a medium for exploring cross-cultural narratives in Israel and Palestine and strategies for doing so with accuracy and sensitivity.

For registration details, please visit [Harvard].

18 November 2020 @ 2:00-4:30 pm JST, Asian Development Bank, Japan

Virtual Workshop on Reforming Asian Utilities: Institutional Reforms for Boosting Private Investments

This workshop will feature new research on the development of Asian utilities, reforms for promoting sector-specific objectives, and ways of attracting private investment.

More information available at [ADB].

18 November 2020 @ 3:00-3:45 pm EDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

President’s Club Conversation on What’s at Stake: LGBTQ + Rights and the US Supreme Court 

This event will discuss the LGBTQ+ rights from a domestic and global perspective, and how the election results could ensure damaging and discriminatory policies for years to come.

For registration details, please visit [Chicago]

18 November 2020 @ 11:30 am - 12:30 pm EDT, Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, USA

Social Media and the Pursuit of Power in a Hybrid Regime: Evidence from Pakistan’s 2018 Election  

This event will discuss the politics of social media in the run-up to Pakistan’s 2018 general election. 

For registration details, please visit [Stanford]

18 November 2020 @ 9:00 am PT, Hoover Institution, USA 

U.S. Mexican Relations and an Agenda for Peace and Prosperity in the Western Hemisphere 

The event will discuss what the outcome of the Presidential elections means to U.S.-Mexico relations.

For registration details, please visit [Hoover]

18 November 2020 @ 5:00 pm AEST, Lowy Institute, Australia

2020 Owen Harries Lecture: Dr Francis Fukuyama

This live-streamed lecture will be held by Dr Francis Fukuyama, one of the most influential political scientists of his generation. 

For registration details, please visit [Lowy Institute].

Recent book releases

Christopher Harding, The Japanese: A History in Twenty Lives, Penguin, November 5, 2020, 495 pages, reviewed in [The Times].

Michael C. Davis, Making Hong Kong China: The Rollback of Human Rights and the Rule of Law, Association for Asian Studies, November 10,2020, 201 pages, briefly reviewed in [Barnes and Noble].

Jacqui True, Violence against Women: What Everyone Needs to Know, Oxford University Press, October 27, 2020, 272 pages. More information at [OUP]

Maia Pal, Jurisdictional Accumulation: An Early Modern History of Law, Empires, and Capital, Cambridge University Press, October 22, 2020, 342 pages. More information at [International Law Reporter]

Calls

IAFOR invites to submit papers for its 2nd Southeast Asian Conference on Education on May 13-16, 2021. Closing date for submissions is December 10, 2020. More information at [IAFOR].

The 16th International Conference on Changes in Asian Politics on April 5-6, 2022 in Cancun, Mexico, invites to submit papers until November 17, 2020. Details available at [Waset].

Jobs & positions

The University of Dundee offers a fixed term contract for the position of Research Assistant in a project investigating and comparing complaints procedures against police personnel in the UK, Germany, France, Canada and Japan. Closing date for applications is December 9, 2020. More information at [POLACS]

The University of Oxford offers a fixed term contract for the position of Researcher in the project "Place, crime and insecurity in everyday life: A contemporary study of an English town". Closing date for applications is November 26, 2020. More information at [Oxford University]

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