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October 15, 2020 - Brief Issue 105

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Western and Midwestern States Set Records for Daily Covid-19 Case Numbers; Cases Increase 21% Across the U.S. (Health & Science)

Small Household Gatherings Driving Increases in Covid-19 Infections, CDC Chief Says (Health & Science)

Study Finds No Evidence that Child Care Contributes to Coronavirus Transmission to Adults (Health & Science)

More New Cases of Coronavirus in Europe Than in U.S. (Around the World)

France Declares Emergency, Cities Implement Curfew; Russia Reports Largest Daily Increase; Italy Breaks March Record (Around the World)

Iran Overcome by Third Wave of Coronavirus (Around the World)

Canadian Outbreak Traced Back to Spin Studio (Around the World)

FDA Resists Efforts to Rebrand Emergency Authorization (U.S. Government & Politics)

Stocks Drop as U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Suggests No Relief Deal Before Election (U.S. Economy)

Goldman Sachs Profit Nearly Doubles in Third Quarter in Latest Sign of Wall Street Resilience (U.S. Economy)

NFL Wrestles with Impact of Pandemic in Wake of Tennessee Titans Outbreak (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,916,533 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 216.903 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,155,794 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 118,368 tests. Worldwide, there have been 38,517,186 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,092,256 deaths. At least 26,681,010 people have recovered from the virus. 

Western and Midwestern States Set Records for Daily Covid-19 Case Numbers; Cases Increase 21% Across the U.S.

Daily cases of Covid-19 have been steadily increasing in Western and Midwestern states in recent weeks. In recent days, more than 20 states, primarily from these regions, have reached new highs in their seven-day average of reported daily case counts (WaPo). Public health experts warn that numbers are likely to climb further as cooler weather drives people indoors, and many are concerned that a high baseline now could mean a hard winter season for some states.

Covid-19 cases across the nation have been ticking upward more quickly starting from the beginning of October. Over the past week, there has been a 21% increase in cases compared to two weeks earlier (NYT). The seven-day average of new daily cases for the U.S. has passed 50,000, the highest average since August.

Small Household Gatherings Driving Increases in Covid-19 Infections, CDC Chief Says

Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned state governors on Tuesday that small gatherings are increasingly driving Covid-19 infection rates (Hill, CNN). While steps such as social distancing and mask mandates are reducing the chances of viral spread in public spaces, cases continue to spread in homes throughout the country.

“Particularly with Thanksgiving coming up,” Redfield said, “we think it’s really important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting.” Dr. Johnathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University, advises people not to have Thanksgiving dinners indoors with people outside their immediate households (CNN).

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also stressed the importance of getting case numbers down as temperatures drop (Hill). “We have a baseline of infections now that vary between 40,000 and 50,000 per day,” said Fauci, who has said previously that he had hoped to be at a baseline of around 10,000 by now. “That’s a bad place to be when you’re going into the cooler weather of the fall and the colder weather of the winter.”

In Boston, city leaders are seeking stronger enforcement of social gathering restrictions. After multiple complaints of house parties in South Boston, City Counselors Ed Flynn and Michael Flaherty filed a hearing order to discuss enforcement strategies, which may include increases in fines for violators. Massachusetts ordinance currently prohibits indoor gatherings with more than 8 people per 1,000 square feet or more than 25 people total (NBC Boston, Twitter).

Study Finds No Evidence that Child Care Contributes to Coronavirus Transmission to Adults

In a study to be published in the medical journal Pediatrics, researchers surveyed over 57,000 child care providers to investigate whether child care is a significant cause of coronavirus transmission to adult workers. The study found no increase in Covid-19 infection rates in providers who had worked closely with children during the early stages of the pandemic. The authors of the study were careful to point out that the results were obtained within the context of considerable mitigation efforts on the part of most providers, including frequent hand washing, disinfection practices, and small group sizes. The results may not apply to K-12 schools and universities, which have their own unique risk factors and variables. The article is a pre-publication version that has undergone peer review but is not yet in its final form.

Blood Type May Play a Role in Covid-19 Susceptibility and Severity

Two new studies, each published in the scientific journal Blood Advances, suggest that people with O-type blood may be at lower risk from Covid-19 (CNN Health). A Canadian study found that people with blood types O or B were less likely to require mechanical ventilation than people with blood types A or AB. A Dutch study found that, although people with O-type blood comprise 42% of the population, only 38% of study participants who tested positive for Covid-19 had O-type blood. (The Dutch study did not find a difference in hospitalization or mortality rates for any blood type).

The findings from each of these papers are consistent with another study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine in June, which also found a protective effect against the virus in O-type blood. Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who was not involved in any of the studies, says that the results are interesting but require further study. “While we’re not quite to the point where this is ironclad, it’s clearly suggestive,” Adalja said. “I think it’s an important research question to answer” (CNN Health). 

Bonus Read: “Which States had the Best Pandemic Response?,” (Politico).

Around the World

Europe

More New Cases of Coronavirus in Europe Than in U.S.

The second wave of coronavirus has arrived in Europe. Months after authorities believed the curve had been flattened and many governments removed or drastically reduced restrictions on public gatherings, cases of Covid-19 are on the rise again on the continent. As we covered yesterday, countries are announcing new restrictions and attempting to take a targeted approach in an effort to avoid complete national lockdowns, but this week Europe overtook the U.S. in a key metric for tracking the spread of the virus: average new cases per day (WSJ, Reuters). The 27 countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom recorded 78,000 cases a day on average during the week ending on Oct. 12. That’s 152 cases per million residents. For that same period, the U.S. recorded 49,000 a day on average, or about 50 cases per million residents. This is the first time Europe recorded more cases than the U.S. since the peak of the virus in the spring.

France Declares Emergency, Cities Implement Curfew; Russia Reports Largest Daily Increase; Italy Breaks March Record

On Wednesday evening the French president Emmanuel Macron declared a public health state of emergency and announced that a curfew would be put in place requiring everyone to be home between 9pm and 6am for the Paris region and the cities of Rouen, Lille, St Etienne, Lyon, Grenoble, Montpellier, Marseille, and Toulouse (Guardian, Reuters). The curfew begins on Saturday and will remain in place for four weeks. The number of hospitalizations due to Covid-19 rose to over the 9,100 threshold for the first time since June, but Macron said a full lockdown would still be a disproportionate response.

The second wave is also a concern for the formerly Communist countries of Central Europe where weak healthcare systems have already faced shortages and inadequate testing capacity. In the Czech Republic, virus deaths are at 2.9 per 100,000 people over the last seven days and schools have transitioned to remote learning and non-urgent medical procedures have been postponed (Reuters). And Russia reported its largest daily increase in new infections on Wednesday (NYT).

Italy reported 7,332 new cases in the past 24 hours on Wednesday, exceeding its previous high of 6,557 on March 21 (Guardian). Government health advisors believe the number of new cases could rise to 16,000 a day by November, with Carlo Palermo, the head of a doctors’ union, warned that hospitals could be overrun in two months’ time if the daily rate continued to increase. 

Middle East

Iran Overcome by Third Wave of Coronavirus

This week Iran reported its largest number of deaths in a day since March and also recorded the largest number of new infections as the country battles what health officials are calling its third wave of the virus (Guardian). On Wednesday, 4,108 new infections were recorded for the previous day, down slightly from the record of 4,392 cases on Oct. 8. The government has now enacted fines of up to $6.60 in Tehran for failure to wear a mask in public. Businesses face fines up to $30. The fines are not trivial, as the monthly minimum wage is worth less than $60. Still, health officials are worried they are not enough of a deterrent and Mohammad Talebpour, director of Sina hospital in Tehran, warned that unless Iranians take action, as many as 300,000 people could die over the next 18 months. 

Americas

Canadian Outbreak Traced Back to Spin Studio

At least 61 people linked to a spin studio in the city of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada have tested positive for the coronavirus, the city’s medical officer, Elizabeth Richardson, said on Tuesday (WaPo). The cycling studio followed official guidelines about hygiene and sanitation, limiting the number of bikes in the room to allow for social distancing and requiring masks in the studio anytime participants weren’t actively working out. But Richardson noted that in spite of those measures, “gyms are a higher-risk place because of the fact that generally people are taking off their masks, they’re breathing at a higher rate.” The city is reexamining its gym protocols in light of the “very large outbreak.” 

U.S. Government & Politics

FDA Resists Efforts to Rebrand Emergency Authorization

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is resisting White House efforts to rebrand its emergency authorization procedures as “pre-licensure,” according to a report in Politico on Tuesday (Politico). Politico cites four officials who say the FDA is concerned about the appearance of politicization. Politico writes, “FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn rejected attempts to alter the terminology tied to its closely watched regulatory process in recent weeks, frustrating health department officials who contend the agency is holding coronavirus vaccines to a far higher standard than normal for an emergency authorization – and that its description should reflect that, the officials said.” The idea to rebrand the process was pitched by Health and Human Services officials. One of the reasons driving the proposed rebranding is that it would allow Medicare to cover the cost of the drugs. As Politico writes, “While Congress mandated earlier this year that Medicare cover the cost of administering a licensed vaccine, the requirement did not include drugs authorized under emergency-use designations. That’s raised the prospect that millions of people could be forced to pay out of pocket unless Congress were to adopt a quick fix.”

House Democrats Criticize Unilateralism of Trump’s Pandemic Response

On Wednesday, 100 House Democrats signed a letter criticizing the Trump administration for approaching the pandemic response in a unilateral manner and failing to effectively cooperate with other countries (WaPo). The letter was written by California Representatives Judy Chu and Brad Sherman of California and Massachusetts Representative Jim McGovern. It states in part, “This impeded the ability of American public health officials to receive timely and accurate information about the pandemic, delaying our response and likely costing American lives” and specifically criticizes the Trump administration’s approach to China as well as its interactions with the World Health Organization and European Union.

Bonus Read: “Proposal to Hasten Herd Immunity to the Coronavirus Grabs White House Attention but Appalls Top Scientists,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Stocks Drop as U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Suggests No Relief Deal Before Election

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that he does not expect Congress to pass a coronavirus relief bill before the November Presidential election (NYT). Mnuchin said that he had had “comprehensive” discussions with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi but still stated, “At this point, getting something done before the election and executing on that will be difficult.” Following Mnuchin’s comments the stock market dropped on Wednesday after a quiet start to the day.

Goldman Sachs Profit Nearly Doubles in Third Quarter in Latest Sign of Wall Street Resilience

Despite the pandemic’s economic impacts, on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs reported that its third quarter profits nearly doubled (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal calls the report “the latest confirmation that even in a pandemic and a recession, Wall Street can still make money” and writes, “Goldman’s quarterly profit of $3.62 billion on revenue of $10.78 billion was better than stock analysts had forecast and sharply higher from a year ago.” As we covered in yesterday’s brief, JP Morgan Chase also reported a strong third quarter profit this week.

U.S. Society

NFL Wrestles with Impact of Pandemic in Wake of Tennessee Titans Outbreak

For two months following its decision to reopen, the NFL’s strategy to contain and prevent the spread of coronavirus in the league appeared to be working. However, in the wake of an outbreak on the Tennessee Titans team, covered in previous briefs, the league is wrestling with the impact of the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “NFL owners acknowledged at a virtual meeting on Tuesday that the NFL’s problems have the capacity to grow messier as this season progresses. Covid-19 cases across the country are currently increasing. Rescheduling games becomes increasingly complicated the later in the year they happen and the NFL is desperate to avoid adding an extra week to the season.” League executives also expressed concern that fatigue over implementing protocols to prevent spread might emerge. NFL Commissioner Robert Goodell commented, “We stressed again today: we cannot grow complacent.” The Journal examines the impact of the Titans outbreak in particular, writing, “From Aug. 1 through Oct. 10, the NFL had 99 confirmed infections, 30 players and 69 other personnel among roughly 8,000 people getting tested. Of those 99 positives, however, 41 came in a two-week span—the last two weeks, from Sept. 27 to Oct. 10. Quickly, the NFL’s season faced derailment.”

Analysis & Arguments

Bryce Covert writes on the importance of school as a provider of child care amid debates over coronavirus safety and school reopenings (NYT).

Jean M. Twenge writes that teenagers are proving more resilient than expected to the social and mental health impacts of coronavirus quarantine policies (Atlantic).

Watch Sir Lawrence Freedman discuss strategy in the era of coronavirus from New America’s Future Security Forum (New America).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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