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March 15, 2021 - Brief Issue 167

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Fauci Warns Against Another Covid Spike (Health & Science)

Biden Says All Adults Will Be Eligible for the Covid-19 Vaccine by May  (Health & Science)

Mixed Messages About Antibody Treatment Persist, But Two New Studies Show Promise (Health & Science)

European Medicines Agency Investigates Link Between Blood Clots and AstraZeneca Vaccine (Health & Science)

Chinese Study May Illuminate Evolutionary Origins of the Virus Causing Covid-19 (Health & Science)

Italy Enters Another Nationwide Lockdown; France Tries Desperately to Avoid One (Around the World)

German Chancellor’s Party Loses Elections Due to Covid-19 Lockdowns and Slow Vaccine Rollout; Third Wave of Infections Now Unavoidable, Says Health Agency (Around the World)

Taiwan Economy Thrives as Oasis From Covid (Around the World)

Tensions Arise Over Which Administration Deserves Credit for Vaccine Efforts (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Downplays Risk of Inflation Due to Stimulus Package (U.S. Economy)

Facebook Research Suggests a Few Groups Have Outsized Impact on Opposition to Vaccines, Possible QAnon Influence on Opposition (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,438,779 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 534,889 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 362,125,287 tests and distributed 135,847,835 vaccine doses, with 107,060,270 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 119,886,955 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,654,533 deaths. At least 67,917,117 people have recovered from the virus.

Fauci Warns Against Another Covid Spike

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, warned the U.S. on Sunday that even though Covid-19 cases have dropped since the start of the year, they have plateaued at a dangerous level over the last few weeks (CNN). "When you see a plateau at a level as high as 60,000 cases a day, that is a very vulnerable time to have a surge, to go back up,” Fauci said, citing recent surges of new coronavirus variants in European countries such as France and Italy. Cautioning against complacency, Fauci emphasized the importance of vaccination efforts, masking, and social distancing in keeping case numbers from spiking once again.  

Biden Says All Adults Will Be Eligible for the Covid-19 Vaccine by May 1

President Biden announced from the White House Thursday night that all American adults will be eligible for the coronavirus vaccine by May 1, with the goal of returning to semi-normalcy by Independence Day (NYT, STAT). The Department of Health and Human Services will make it mandatory for states to comply with this timeline. Thursday’s address followed the passage of Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package.

The country will keep up its pace of 2 million vaccinations per day, Biden said, noting that his goal of administering 100 million shots during his first 100 days in office would soon be surpassed. The President announced other forthcoming initiatives in the push for widespread vaccination, including a new vaccination website, increased mass vaccination sites, and the authorization of more people to administer coronavirus vaccines.  

Mixed Messages About Antibody Treatment Persist, But Two New Studies Show Promise

Two not-yet-published studies announced their results on Wednesday, suggesting that antibody treatment – in which antibodies found to be particularly effective against Covid-19 are manufactured in bulk, and administered to Covid-19 patients – may prevent hospitalization or death in patients with mild to moderate symptoms (Nature). 

One trial found that a combination of the antibodies bamlanivimab and etesevimab, produced by pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly, slashed rates of hospitalization and death by 87%; the other found that VIR-7831, an antibody produced by Vir Biotechnology of San Francisco and GSK of London, reduced the risk of severe outcomes by 85%. Moreover, VIR-7831 was found to bind to the highly contagious South African variant of the coronavirus. 

Derek Angus of the University of Pittsburgh said these results contribute to increasing evidence that antibody treatments are highly effective as an early intervention. However, Angus noted, antibody treatments face several setbacks. The use of antibody treatments has, so far, been limited; not only are published results on the method limited, but antibody treatments are expensive to produce and resource-intensive to administer. And, early clinical trials found antibodies offered little benefit to severely ill, hospitalized patients; many experts expected this, and the therapy does appear to be better suited to early Covid-19 infections, but those early trials created skepticism around antibody treatments in general. 

Saye Khoo, a pharmacologist at the University of London, said studies on the efficacy of antibody treatment in mild Covid-19 cases have so far been too narrow in scope to generate any large conclusions. Still, Khoo said, “These compounds are without a doubt exciting.”

European Medicines Agency Investigates Link Between Blood Clots and AstraZeneca Vaccine

Ireland temporarily halted use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine on Sunday over concerns about blood clots (NYT). This move followed reports from Norway of four young people who experienced blood clotting or brain hemorrhages after receiving the AstraZeneca shot (Norweigan Medicines Agency). 

Several other European countries, including Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Italy, and Romania have already paused use of the vaccine, and are now awaiting further information as health organizations investigate (NYT). The European Medicines Agency announced Wednesday that 30 out of almost 5 million AstraZeneca recipients had reported blood clots, a proportion similar to that found in the general population. AstraZeneca released a statement on Sunday, saying, “A careful review of all available safety data of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the European Union and UK with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has shown no evidence of an increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis or thrombocytopenia, in any defined age group, gender, batch or in any particular country” (AstraZeneca). The company said as of March 8, it knew of 15 cases of deep-vein thrombosis and 22 cases of pulmonary embolism among its vaccine recipients in Britain and the EU; this number places AstraZeneca on par with other coronavirus vaccines. 

Chinese Study May Illuminate Evolutionary Origins of the Virus Causing Covid-19

In a not-yet-peer-reviewed study, Weifeng Shi and colleagues at the Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences in Taian, China identified viruses related to SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid-19, in live bats from the southern province of Yunnan (Nature). The researchers examined feces, urine, and mouth swab from 342 bats, who live in a plot of land less than a tenth of the size of San Francisco, between May 2019 and November 2020. 

Twenty-four full-length coronavirus genomes were sequenced from the bats, including four genomes related to the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. One of these, found in a Rhinolophus Pusillus bat, shared 94.5% of its genome with the virus behind Covid-19. Out of all known SARS-Cov-2 relatives, this takes second place to the RATG13 virus, which is 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2 and was found in a Rhinolophus affinis bat in 2013. 

The results of the study indicate continued circulation of coronaviruses among animals in Southeast Asia and southern China. The authors aim to advance understanding of the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and its relatives. 

NPR Poll Indicates Minimal Differences in Vaccine Skepticism Between Racial Groups

The results of a recent poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist showed little difference between white and Black Americans in their hesitancy to receive a coronavirus vaccine (NPR). The survey, which spanned from March 3 to March 8, reached 1,227 adults, who were interviewed via phone. 

Out of the people surveyed, 73% of Black people and 70% of white people said they had already gotten or planned on getting the vaccine. The percentages of people who said they did not plan on getting a vaccine were similar too, at 25% of Black respondents and 28% of white respondents. The results indicated more hesitancy among Latino respondents, 63% of whom said they had gotten or would get the vaccine and 37% of whom said they would not get vaccinated. Overall, 67% of people said they planned on getting the vaccine, or already had; 30% said they did not plan on doing so. 

Though many states have reported racial disparities in vaccine recipients, the study suggested little difference in hesitancy along racial lines. The results did, however, show partisan differences; 47% of people who supported Trump in 2020 said they would not get the shot, as opposed to 10% of Biden supporters. 

U.S. Study Suggests Schools Can Adopt Less Stringent Social Distancing Requirements

A study published March 10 in Clinical Infectious Diseases found no significant difference in  coronavirus case rates among students and staff in Massachusetts school districts requiring six feet of physical distancing and those requiring three feet of distancing (NYT). The researchers, who monitored about 250 school districts for a 16-week period, concluded that school districts may be able to lower their physical distancing requirements.

Dr. Anthony Fauci concurred that the results point toward the possibility of three-foot distancing requirements; he said the Centers for Disease Prevention will study the evidence before updating its recommendations. Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, tweeted that this new evidence could help schools safely reopen, more quickly. 

Bonus Read: “Clergy Preach Faith in the Covid Vaccine to Doubters,” (NYT).

Around the World

Italy Enters Another Nationwide Lockdown; France Tries Desperately to Avoid One

Today, Italy begins another nationwide lockdown as vaccination efforts lag and coronavirus infections rise once again, due in large part to a more contagious variant, B.1.1.7 (NYT). Three-quarters of the population, including those in most regions in northern Italy, as well as Lazio and Marche in the central region and Puglia in the south, will be under strict lockdown with schools closed and residents forbidden from leaving their homes except for necessities. In the rest of the country, residents will not be allowed to leave their municipality except for certain reasons but schools and many stores can remain open. “I am aware that today’s measures will have an impact on children’s education, on the economy but also on the psychological state of us all,” Prime Minister Mario Draghi said Friday. “But they are necessary to avoid a worsening that will make inevitable even more stringent measures.” Draghi added, “We believe that only with widespread vaccinations will we be able to avoid measures like these.” Fewer than two million people in the country have been vaccinated so far, partly because of late deliveries from pharmaceutical companies and logistical problems. Last Saturday, the government said it aimed to vaccinate 80% of the population by September. Vaccination capacity is expected to increase in coming months, with deliveries set to go up from 15.7 million doses in the first quarter to 52.5 million from April to June. In the third quarter of this year, deliveries should peak at 85 million.  

In France, government officials are resisting pressure from health officials to impose a third nationwide lockdown even as coronavirus infections rise. Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Sunday that the country must do everything it can to avoid another lockdown (Reuters).“We have to use all weapons available to avoid a lockdown. I’ve never hid it, let’s vaccinate, protect ourselves, get tested,” Castex said in an interview on website Twitch. “The situation is not getting better, there is a higher and higher number of infections and hospitals are very burdened with many patients, whose average age is getting lower and who don’t always have comorbidities,” Castex said.France has imposed a 6 p.m. nationwide curfew and weekend lockdowns in two regions struggling to contain outbreaks and big shopping centers have been closed. Just 7.7% of the population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.  

German Chancellor’s Party Loses Elections Due to Covid-19 Lockdowns and Slow Vaccine Rollout; Third Wave of Infections Now Unavoidable, Says Health Agency 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party suffered a blow on Sunday with one of its worst-ever defeats at regional elections in two states in Germany’s affluent south as many Germans grow impatient with the glacial pace of the vaccine rollout and continued restrictions due to Covid-19. In Baden-Württemberg, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won only 23.9% of the vote, down from 28% in 2016 (AP). In neighboring Rhineland Palatinate, the CDU won only 26.5% of the vote, down from 31.8% in the last election. The regional elections are viewed as good predictors of the federal election, which will take place in September, and will mark the end of Merkel’s 16-year reign as chancellor. Her successor, CDU Chairman Armin Laschet, will need to help the party recover the public’s approval. Public frustration with Merkel and the CDU party has been growing since last year as another lockdown has been in place since November without any real hope of a return to normalcy anytime soon. Germany’s vaccination campaign has been one of the slowest in Europe, with only 7% of the population receiving at least one dose of a vaccine (WSJ). 

Complicating matters is a report from the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s federal health agency, published on Friday, that said a third wave of coronavirus is about to begin across the country. That report predicts that the daily number of new infections will be higher at Easter than it was over Christmas, perhaps rising to a seven-day average of around 350 cases per 100,000 people (Der Tagesspeigel). The RKI report blamed the rise in infections on the B.1.1.7 variant, which is believed to be more contagious, saying that the variant is now found in more than 50% of positive cases across Germany. Merkel and the state premiers are expected to meet next week to discuss current restrictions and the vaccine rollout.

Dutch Elections Begin with Coronavirus on the Ballot

Polling stations across the Netherlands opened Monday in a general election that has been spread over three days to allow people to vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic (AP). The pandemic has also been a major theme of those campaigning, as opposition parties criticize the government’s handling of the crisis and candidates focusing on rebuilding the economy. The conservative People’s Party of Freedom and Democracy, or VVD, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte is forecast to win most seats in the 150-seat lower house of Parliament. The country is in another lockdown at the moment as infection rates hover at high numbers. Vulnerable populations and those over the age of 70 are able to cast their ballots today and tomorrow. Some voting locations will include a drive-through option and will even have a lane for bicycles. 

Taiwan Economy Thrives as Oasis From Covid

Taiwan has seen just 10 Covid-19 deaths and fewer than 1,000 cases since the start of the pandemic and as a result, many citizens who had moved abroad have returned to fuel an economic boom. Businesspeople, students, and retirees who are Taiwanese and dual nationals have been drawn back to the island by its success in avoiding the coronavirus and the ability to live normally without lockdowns or restrictions. Restaurants, bars, cafes are packed and office buildings and schools operate at normal capacity. According to immigration authorities, about 270,000 more Taiwanese entered the island than left it in 2020, which is about four times the net inflow from the previous year (NYT). That influx has helped make Taiwan one of the fastest growing economies last year, and one of the few to expand at all. The government expects a 4.6% growth in 2021, which would be the fastest pace in seven years.

U.S. Government & Politics

Tensions Arise Over Which Administration Deserves Credit for Vaccine Efforts

In light of President Biden’s recent announcement regarding an accelerated vaccine rollout, the Biden administration is facing pressure from Republicans to give former president Trump credit for his work on vaccines (NYT, WaPo, Business Insider). Paul Mango, one of Trump’s officials and a former deputy chief of staff for Health and Human Services, said the Biden administration should be acknowledging Trump more. “They criticize what we did, but they are using our playbook every step of the way,” Mango said, referencing the Trump administration’s spearheading of a vaccine production plan known as Operation Warp Speed, its development of nearly 24 vaccine production plants, and its efforts to begin talks between rival companies Merck and Johnson & Johnson. Biden announced a vaccine production deal between the companies earlier this week. 

Biden’s administration has claimed that Trump left them “no plan” for a vaccine rollout, though fact-checkers dispute these claims (WaPo). Biden has, in fact, benefited from the Trump administration’s efforts to boost vaccine production, though local and state health officials report clearer communication and more reliability from the new administration. Biden has also improved the federal government’s relationship with Pfizer, and has aggressively ramped up vaccine production, thanks in part to the Defense Production Act. 

White House press secretary Jen Psaki responded to questions about whether Trump deserves credit for his vaccine rollout efforts on Thursday: "I don't think anyone deserves credit when half a million people in the country have died of this pandemic.”

Cuomo Vaccine Czar Sought to Generate Support for Cuomo Amid Political Scandals

Larry Schwartz, an aide to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, tasked with heading the state’s vaccine rollout sought to gauge local officials’ support for the Governor during calls discussing vaccination, according to reports on Sunday (NYT, Politico, WaPo). The Times writes, “With Mr. Cuomo facing concurrent scandals over accusations of sexual abuse and calls for his resignation, though, that pattern is raising alarms.” The Times reports, “Larry Schwartz, a former top aide to the governor who now leads the state’s vaccination efforts, has also apparently been acting as a political operative, asking state Democratic leaders to support the governor while continuing to discuss the urgent business of immunization. At least two Democratic county executives said they had received such calls.” One county official told the Times that Schwartz, “pivoted directly to a conversation about vaccine distribution” from a conversation about the governor’s political situation. In a conversation with the Washington Post, Schwartz whose role in the vaccination effort is a volunteer position acknowledged making the calls in question but denied discussing vaccinations in them. He stated, “I did nothing wrong,” adding, “I have always conducted myself in a manner commensurate to a high ethical standard.” 

The reports come amid growing pressure and alls for Governor Cuomo’s resignation following allegations of sexual harassment and other inappropriate behavior (Politico, CNBC, Fox). On Friday New York Senators Chuck Schumer, who is also the Senate Majority Leader, and Kirsten Gillibrand called for Cuomo to resign. They are the highest ranking New York politicians to do so. The two Senators wrote, “Due to the multiple, credible sexual harassment and misconduct allegations, it is clear that Governor Cuomo has lost the confidence of his governing partners and the people of New York,” adding, “Governor Cuomo should resign.” Meanwhile on Sunday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi did not call for Cuomo to resign but stated, that she has “zero tolerance” for sexual harassment. As we have covered in prior briefs, Governor Cuomo is also wrestling with another scandal regarding his administration’s handling of data on Covid deaths in nursing homes.

Politicians Look to Post-Stimulus Agenda Amid Questions of How to Pay 

Politicians are beginning to look to what agenda items will follow the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The Wall Street Journal reports that a debate in the White House over how to pay hangs over the plans to move on to energy, infrastructructure, and other spending priorities (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Officials face a decision over how much of the bill to pay for with tax increases and which policies to finance with more borrowing. In a narrowly divided Congress, they must also craft a bill that can win support from nearly every Democrat.” Coming on the heels of the stimulus package, some Republicans and centrist Democrats are loathe to borrow for further agenda items. The Journal writes, “The U.S. has borrowed trillions of dollars in the past year to pay for coronavirus relief, including direct payments for households and small businesses. Some Democrats have signaled they may be willing to borrow more to finance programs such as infrastructure if the economic benefits are big enough. But Republicans and some moderate Democrats, including Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), say the ballooning national debt is a reason to ensure the spending is offset with tax increases or cuts elsewhere.” Bonus Read: “Beyond Covid Relief: Biden Invokes LBJ as Democrats Aim to Expand Welfare State,” (Politico).

Bonus Read: “Trump Was Supposed to be a Political Godzilla in Exile. Instead, He’s Adrift,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Treasury Secretary Downplays Risk of Inflation Due to Stimulus Package

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended the Biden administration’s stimulus package and contended that it is unlikely to drive inflation (Politico). Yellen told ABC’s “This Week,” “We need to defeat the pandemic. This package really does that.” Yellen emphasized the pandemic’s impact on employment, stating, “The most significant risk we face is a workforce that is scarred by a long period of unemployment. People being out of work, not able to find jobs, can have a permanent effect on their well-being. I think that's the most significant risk” and while acknowledging a risk of inflation, stated, “Is there a risk of inflation? I think there's a small risk. And I think it's manageable.” 

Pandemic Benefits Some Entrepreneurs Amid Severe Impact on Small Businesses

While the pandemic brought tough times for many small businesses, for some entrepreneurs, it has opened doors, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “some businesses’ struggles have presented opportunities for new ventures. Landlords reluctant to let storefronts sit empty are offering more affordable leases, and heightened stress over the past year has led to increased demand for services like facials and guided meditation, business owners said. Some entrepreneurs, laid off themselves at the beginning of the pandemic, decided to pursue long-held dreams of owning their own businesses.” The Journal profiles five such businesses. Even so, the larger impact has been devastating. The Journal writes, “The pandemic’s toll on small businesses in New York City has been severe. In Brooklyn, Chamber of Commerce President Randy Peers estimated that between one-fifth and one-third of small businesses have folded, depending on the neighborhood. In lower Manhattan, more than 160 retail businesses—12% of the total—have permanently closed, according to the Downtown Alliance, a local business group.”

Bonus Read: “Grab Your Lanyard. Trade Shows Are Plotting a Comeback,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Separates Two Towns: Maine Is Homesick for Canada,” (WSJ).

Facebook Research Suggests a Few Groups Have Outsized Impact on Opposition to Vaccines, Possible QAnon Influence on Opposition

The Washington Post reports that initial research from Facebook on doubts expressed by Facebook users regarding vaccines suggests that small groups of people may have an outsized impact on spreading doubts (WaPo). The Post also reports that the research suggests that people following QAnon may play an important role in the spread of doubt. The Post writes, “The research is a large-scale attempt to understand the spread of ideas that contribute to vaccine hesitancy, or the act of delaying or refusing a vaccination despite its availability, on social media — a primary source of health information for millions of people.” Summarizing the findings, the Post writes, “The company’s data scientists divided the company’s U.S. users, groups and pages into 638 population segments to explore which types of groups hold vaccine hesitant beliefs. The document did not identify how Facebook defined a segment or grouped communities, but noted that the segments could be at least 3 million people. Some of the early findings are notable: Just 10 out of the 638 population segments contained 50 percent of all vaccine hesitancy content on the platform. And in the population segment with the most vaccine hesitancy, just 111 users contributed half of all vaccine hesitant content.” The Post also writes, “The research effort also discovered early evidence of significant overlap between communities that are skeptical of vaccines and those affiliated with QAnon, a sprawling set of baseless claims that has radicalized its followers and been associated with violent crimes, according to the documents.”

Air Travel Rebounding, Friday Marks Most Travelers in a Year Per TSA

U.S. air travel appears to be rebounding after being depressed by the pandemic (AP, NYT). The Transportation Security Administration says that it screened more than 1.3 million people for air travel on Friday. According to TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein, that is the highest number of screened travelers since March 15, 2020.

Incoming New York School Chancellor Pushes for Expanded Summer School

Incoming New York Schools Chancellor Meisha Ross Porter is pushing to expand New York’s summer school programming in order to help students whose education has been disrupted by the pandemic (WSJ). Porter stated, “There cannot be a standard summer school coming out of a pandemic,” suggesting that programming be opened to students beyond those who are recommended or required to attend. Porter said that the effort would likely involve remote learning, saying, “The science is changing every day, but we’re going to follow the health and safety protocols.” Bonus Read: “How One School District Bridged the Divide and Reopened Classrooms,” (WSJ).

Yo Yo Ma Plays Surprise Concert Following Second Vaccination

On Saturday, after receiving his second vaccination, renowned cellist Yo Yo Ma played a surprise concert for others at the Berkshire Community College vaccine clinic in Pittsfield, Massachusetts (WaPo). Leslie Drager, the lead clinical manager for the vaccination site commented, “It was so weird how peaceful the whole building became, just having a little bit of music in the background.” Hilary Bashara, the nurse who administered both of Ma’s doses, commented, “‘Most people, they are busy, they’re sort of anxious and waiting — he was different,’ she said. ‘I just watched his face, and he was looking about the room and his face generated such warmth, it felt like he was smiling under his mask. When he got up to where I was, he was like, ‘Thank you so much for being here.’” Yo Yo Ma has previously used his music to entertain people amid the pandemic, including a video he tweeted a year to the day of his second vaccination.

Analysis & Arguments

Leslie Jamison writes on what the pandemic year has taught about nostalgia (NYT).

The New York Times weighs in on whether Andrew Cuomo is still able to lead (NYT).

Matt Karp argues that even as large as the Covid stimulus package is, it does not signal a systemic transformation of American politics (Jacobin).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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