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All Eyes on Looming Tariffs

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

President Donald Trump is expected to unveil sweeping tariffs at an event at the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday that could include a broad range of products, sectors, and countries.

Trump has called April 2 “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy.

Today's annoucement will follow 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts introduced last week, and last month’s levies against China, as well as some against Canada and Mexico.

The tariff fight has ignited worries about a slowdown in economic growth, driving a steep selloff in shares of small companies and sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to its lowest level of the year Tuesday.

The White House played down concerns on Wall Street about President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. “Wall Street will be just fine,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.

 

Top News

Fed’s Barkin: Trump’s Tariffs Could Hit the Economy More This Time

Photo: Bastien Inzaurralde/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is seeing some evidence that the Trump administration’s tariffs could have a bigger impact on the economy than the levies imposed during the president’s first term.

The murky economic outlook makes it more challenging to determine the path of interest rates going forward, he told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Tuesday.

Yet Barkin said he is remaining cautious on formulating economic outlooks until the tariff policies are fully fleshed out. But there are indications that the latest trade policy decisions could affect the economy more this time around.

“I don’t think this is going to be 2018 or 2019 by the way. Just the tariffs announced so far, if you include Mexico, Canada, are four times the increase you saw in 2018,” Barkin said. (Barron’s)

  • Investors Bet Clarity on Tariffs Will Bring Stability to Markets
  • Investors Remain Optimistic the U.S. Will Avoid Recession
  • What Tariffs Have Already Gone Into Effect? And What Is Yet to Come?
  • Which Countries Are Retaliating Against U.S. Tariffs?
 

U.S. Economy

U.S. Factory Activity Retreated in March on Tariff Concerns

Photo: David Ryder/Reuters

U.S. manufacturing activity fell back into contraction in March, reflecting renewed concerns about cost pressures and demand in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policy.

U.S. Hiring, Quits and Layoffs Were Steady in February

Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Hiring and layoffs mostly held steady in February, the Labor Department said Tuesday, showing that an equilibrium of fewer opportunities but also with few big staff reductions continued in the first full month of the Trump administration.

A Big Coal Plant Was Just Imploded to Make Way for an AI Data Center

Credit: Thumb Coast Aerial with Implosion Technologies

The owner of what was once Pennsylvania’s largest operating coal plant just imploded it to make way for a giant AI data-center campus that will be powered by natural gas instead.

 
Alt text.

Why Millions of Student Borrowers Could See a Big Drop in Their Credit Scores

More than 9 million student-loan borrowers could see a decline in their credit scores in the first half of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Wall Street Journal reporter Oyin Adedoyin joins host Ariana Aspuru to discuss what you should do if you are at risk.

Listen Now
 

Financial Regulation

Credit Agricole Gets ECB Nod to Raise BPM Stake

Photo: Francesca Volpi/Bloomberg News

Credit Agricole said it received authorization from the European Central Bank to increase its stake in Italy’s Banco BPM as bigger rival UniCredit prepares to start its offer later this month.

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

Thursday

8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Services PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI
2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers the University of Pittsburgh 2025 McKay Lecture

 

Research

Trump's Auto Tariffs Will Hit Canada's Motor Vehicle Industry Hard

Canada's auto industry will be slammed by the 25% tariffs President Trump is imposing on U.S. imports. Oxford Economics estimates the levy on non-U.S. autos and parts imports will cut Canadian motor vehicle exports by more than 6% this year. That would equate to a loss of $550 million in vehicle and parts production and more than 2,200 industry layoffs this year, it says. If the tariffs are permanent, which Trump has vowed, Oxford's modelling suggests that by 2029 Canada's vehicle and parts exports would fall 10% below baseline assumptions and output in the sector would drop C$1 billion, while auto employment declined 5%-10%. And the economic impact roughly doubles in a scenario where Canada retaliates with parallel 25% tariffs on imported U.S. content of motor vehicles and parts, likely pushing up new car prices in Canada 5%-10%, Oxford says. — Robb Stewart

 

Basis Points

  • President Trump on Tuesday demanded Republicans in the U.S. Senate to oppose a bill originally sponsored by Democratic Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, which, if passed, could derail sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.
  • The Trump administration is pursuing agreements with several more countries to take migrants deported from the U.S., according to officials familiar with the matter.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated his intention to slap retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. should the country be targeted under President Trump’s latest batch of tariffs coming Wednesday.
  • Chinese companies have kept many goods flowing to the U.S. by manufacturing in Mexico, where products ship to the U.S. tariff-free under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term.
  • In the unfolding global trade war, Brazil is betting it has some distinct advantages. Chinese buyers are already stockpiling Brazilian soybeans as Beijing retaliates against President Trump’s tariffs with levies on U.S. agricultural producers.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com. 

 
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