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Tariff Ruling Brings Refund Hopes, New Questions; Blizzard Bears Down; Illuminating the Dark Fleet

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

President Trump spoke at a White House press conference on Friday. KYLE MAZZA/THENEWS2 VIA ZUMA PRESS

The Supreme Court’s ruling that much of President Trump’s tariff regime was illegal resolved one critical question about his trade policy, but left business leaders awash in a flood of others. Chief among these: Are tariff refunds any closer to reality?

The court’s decision left about $133.5 billion collected under the Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, in limbo, with no guidance from the justices on whether or how the duties would be refunded, likely leaving that to lower courts. Trade groups for retailers and others said they hoped firms could quickly reclaim billions of dollars, but some lawyers warned they may need to sue for refunds, as hundreds of companies already have.

In response to the ruling, Trump on Saturday announced a new 15% global tariff, which was bumped up from a 10% blanket duty he announced shortly after the high court’s decision. The new 15% charge wouldn’t stack on top of tariffs imposed under Section 232, according to a White House statement Friday. That means sectors such as cars and steel that are already subject to 25% to 50% won’t be hit with an additional 15%.

Many company bosses said they would spend their weekend digesting legal briefs and the president’s response to game out what comes next, the Journal’s Chip Cutter, Ruth Simon and Sarah Nassauer write. Since it can take months, if not years, to adjust global supply chains, some companies said they were wary of any sudden moves in response to the ruling. 

  • The administration also reaffirmed the continued suspension of the de minimis tariff exemption for lower-priced parcels, saying they would be subject to the new temporary, 15% tariff.
  • To impose the new 15% tariff, the administration turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a president to impose duties of up to 15% for up to 150 days to address problems caused by trade deficits.
  • Meanwhile, American businesses are still paying the IEEPA tariffs even after the court’s decision, and trade specialists say it could take days or weeks for Customs and Border Protection to officially tell importers the levies are no longer in force.
 

Learning Resources CEO Rick Woldenberg with his daughter Elana Woldenberg Ruffman, VP of marketing and product development. KEVIN SERNA for WSJ

The educational-toy business CEO who sued over Trump’s tariffs said the landmark ruling was an emphatic victory. But he is already moving on, the WSJ’s Theo Francis writes. After his firms were turned upside-down by the tariffs, he moved production to countries that face lower U.S. duties. Now he is set on expanding the business his grandfather founded in 1916.

 
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Number of the Day

13.7%

The U.S.’s effective tariff rate after Trump imposed a new 15% duty, down from 16% before the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday, and from 9.1% immediately after the court’s decision, according to the Budget Lab at Yale

 

Transport Disruption

A massive winter storm bearing down on the Northeast and mid-Atlantic put states on emergency measures Sunday and upended air travel, with airlines canceling thousands of flights ahead of the arrival of blizzard conditions.

Nearly 8,000 flights scheduled for Sunday and Monday had been canceled nationally as of Sunday afternoon, mostly on routes into or out of Boston and the New York area, according to flight-data provider FlightAware. Travelers on Sunday also faced some 16,000 flight delays. By Monday evening, a foot or two of snow could be dumped from coastal New Jersey through Boston.

 
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Maritime Security

The number of tankers carrying Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil has expanded over the past four years, and the methods used to disguise their routes, identities and cargo have become more elaborate. This makes shutting down the network completely a gargantuan task, the WSJ’s Daniel Kiss, Ming Li and Rebecca Feng write.

The phantom fleet of sanctioned vessels now numbers 1,300 ships, according to TankerTrackers.com. Shadow fleet ships, usually old, sailing under false flags and sanctioned, accounted for 6% to 7% of the global crude oil flows in 2025, according to Kpler.

Layers of Western sanctions and a recent rash of ship seizures represent the toughest suite of measures brought to bear against the so-called shadow fleet of vessels smuggling illicit oil across the globe. A quasi-blockade by the U.S. has largely shut off Venezuelan oil from China and Cuba—the major users of shadow tankers to transport the crude.

  • The International Maritime Organization counted 529 vessels flying false flags, exposing systemic weakness in global ship registration. (Splash247)
 

Quotable

“It’s a bit complicated.”

— Farooq Kathwari, CEO of furniture maker Ethan Allen, on the tariff situation
 

In Other News

  • U.S. GDP rose at a 1.4% seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate in the final quarter of last year, a sharp slowdown from the third-quarter’s 4.4% rate, according to the Commerce Department. (WSJ)
  • Private-sector activity in the U.S. slowed in February as tariffs drove costs higher, while Europe expanded at a stronger pace than anticipated. (WSJ)
  • Key inflation metrics tracked by the Federal Reserve accelerated in December, making officials cautious about further interest-rate cuts. (WSJ)
  • New single-family home sales jumped to 758,000 in November, then slipped to 745,000 in December, according to delayed federal data. (WSJ)
  • Americans’ economic sentiment improved slightly in February, with the University of Michigan’s sentiment index rising to 56.6, though high prices kept many on edge. (WSJ)
  • Canadian retail sales increased 1.5% in January, the biggest advance since late 2024, according to the national statistics agency’s advance tally of receipts. (WSJ)
  • Canada approved some newer models of Gulfstream business jets for flying in domestic airspace, about three weeks after Trump complained about regulatory delays. (WSJ)
  • Nvidia chips for laptop computers are set to hit the market this year as the AI-chip leader returns to the consumer PC market. (WSJ)
  • Equipment financing firm Onset Financial countersued First Brands, alleging it was misled into extending financing to the auto-parts supplier before its bankruptcy. (WSJ)
  • Brazil and India agreed to work closely on processing and securing rare-earth supplies. (Bloomberg)
  • The Trump administration is taking steps to reverse court victories for U.S. offshore wind projects as developers rush to finish five projects courts allowed to restart. (Journal of Commerce)
  • Nearly 40 trans-Pacific shipping services are set to be blanked in the coming two weeks, with more expected through March, according to Linerlytica data. (The Loadstar)
  • A federal judge dismissed the Teamsters union’s request to stop United Parcel Service from implementing a buyout program for delivery drivers. (FreightWaves)
  • Toyota Motor plans to open a “circular” factory in Poland to process nearly 20,000 end-of-life vehicles a year, recovering components and raw materials for use in new vehicles. (Automotive World)
  • U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced proposals to toughen enforcement against so-called chameleon carriers and driver-training programs that don’t meet federal standards. (Transport Topics)
 

The Dow Jones Risk Journal in New York on March 4 will include two discussions on trade issues: A panel on how to deal with evasion of export controls, sanctions and tariffs with Janet Labuda, head of trade and customs issues at Maersk Customs Services, Aiysha Hussain, partner at Mayer Brown, and Daniel Tannebaum, partner at Oliver Wyman.

Another panel will look at how to incorporate national security into trade compliance with speakers Kevin O’Connor, general counsel at Lockheed Martin, and Joseph Moreno, general counsel at SAP NS2.

Request a complimentary invitation here using the code COMPLIMENTARY. Attendance is limited, and all requests are subject to approval.

 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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