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March 24, 2021 - Brief Issue 173

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Robust B.1.351 Reaction May Hold Promise for Vaccines (Health & Science)

CDC Warns U.S. Against Jettisoning Precautions Too Soon (Health & Science)

Worries Over AstraZeneca Continue as Officials Question Clinical Trial Results (Health & Science)

Antibody Cocktail Looks Promising for Preventing Severe Covid-19 Outcomes (Health & Science)

EU to Extend Vaccine Export Curbs (Around the World)

Across Europe, Protestors Clash with Police (Around the World)

Mumbai Begins Mandatory, Random Testing Blitz (Around the World)

Cherry Blossom Viewing in Japan Curtailed For Second Year (Around the World)

White House Joins with Various Groups in Campaign Targeting Vaccine Hesitancy, Especially Among Conservatives (U.S. Government & Politics)

Hospitals Pressure Biden Administration for Relief Aid (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York City Ends Remote Work for Municipal Employees; Reopens High Schools (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fed President Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen Make First Joint Appearance (U.S. Economy)

Suburban New Jersey Parents Push for Faster School Reopenings (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,922,391 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 543,843 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 383,458,672 tests and distributed 164,300,795 vaccine doses, with 128,217,029 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 124,218,483 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,734,668 deaths. At least 70,472,410 people have recovered from the virus.

Robust B.1.351 Reaction May Hold Promise for Vaccines

A team led by Penny Moore of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa found that B.1.351 – the highly contagious South African coronavirus variant – generates a robust immune response in some patients, with antibodies that fend off a range of other variants (Nature). These results bring hope in light of earlier research suggesting that B.1.351 can dodge the body’s immune system. In January, Moore and her colleague Alex Sigal discovered B.1.351’s ability to evade antibodies in people recovered from earlier strains, and soon after, a clinical trial found that B.1.351 lessens the efficacy of several major vaccines. 

Yet Moore’s most recent work – a preprint of which was published in bioRxiv – shows that in fact, B.1.351 isn’t so invisible to the immune system. Her team injected 89 formerly hospitalized B.1.351 patients with pseudoviruses resembling various strains of SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid-19, and measured their immune reactions. Surprisingly, those recovered from B.1.351 made as many antibodies as those recovered from first-wave strains. These antibodies were able to block B.1.351 pseudoviruses as well as other variants. Moore isn’t sure why B.1.351 provokes such a robust immune response, but her results could mean that current vaccines will recognize and neutralize B.1.351. Contrastingly, other research has shown that the U.K variant, B.1.1.7, triggers a much narrower immune response. 

Scientists are working to create vaccines tailored to newer variants, and some are looking to the body’s natural immune response for insight. Moore said given enough time, any virus will mutate enough to evade vaccines and the immune system. “I have infinite faith in the ability of a virus to escape an immune response,” Moore said. “We've got to lower the global number of infections to the point where the virus doesn’t have as many opportunities to escape.”

CDC Warns U.S. Against Jettisoning Precautions Too Soon

On Monday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky cautioned the U.S. against lifting restrictions and becoming less Covid-cautious too quickly (NYT). Walensky said although vaccination efforts are ramping up, the country is at a “critical point” in the pandemic and needs to be careful. “I am worried that if we don’t take the right actions now, we will have another avoidable surge, just as we are seeing in Europe right now and just as we are so aggressively scaling up vaccination,” Walensky said. 

The CDC’s warning came in response to rising case numbers in a few parts of the U.S. – notably the Northeast and Upper Midwest – and the spread of contagious coronavirus variants across the country. The CDC’s tracking of variants has seen a boost from the $1.75 billion set aside for genomic sequencing in Biden’s stimulus plan. 

Walensky also pointed out the risks of air travel, which has been reaching record highs for the pandemic era – over 1.5 million people crossed T.S.A. checkpoints on Sunday. “We’re worried not just for what happens when you are on the airplane itself, but what happens when people travel,” Walensky explained. 

Worries Over AstraZeneca Continue as Officials Question Clinical Trial Results

Almost immediately after a U.S. clinical trial declared the AstraZeneca vaccine to be 79% effective, federal health officials and an independent panel that oversaw the study questioned these results (NYT, WaPo, Politico, WSJ, STAT). This review board sent a two-page letter to AstraZeneca and health authorities, writing that the vaccine’s actual efficacy might be between 69 and 74%. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases wrote on Tuesday that AstraZeneca may have used outdated information and should review its data as soon as possible. 

The board had twice asked AstraZeneca to tighten up its research methods – there was disagreement over how the company was deciding whether patients had possible or actual Covid-19 cases – but AstraZeneca proceeded to release interim results on Monday without doing so. An AstraZeneca spokesperson said on Friday that the data was not improperly presented, nor was it incorrectly reported to the independent board overseeing the company’s trial. AstraZeneca said on Tuesday that the interim results appear to be consistent with more recent data, but more results will be sent out within 48 hours. 

This current setback could make it harder for AstraZeneca to gain FDA approval. Dr. Anthony Fauci and other health officials fear the unusually public debate over AstraZeneca’s efficacy could erode public confidence in the vaccine, especially after AstraZeneca faced skepticism in Europe (Politico). Fauci said once the company releases updated data, it’s unlikely that the 79% efficacy rate will change much. “This is kind of unfortunate that this happened because at the end of the day, it’s still a good vaccine,” he said. 

Antibody Cocktail Looks Promising for Preventing Severe Covid-19 Outcomes

New clinical trial results from pharmaceutical company Regeneron show that REGEN-COV, the company’s antibody drug cocktail, reduces the risk of hospitalization or extreme illness by 70% in Covid-19 patients who receive the treatment within 10 days of developing symptoms (NYT). These results bolster other evidence suggesting that monoclonal antibody treatments – in which antibodies from recovered patients are given to those with active infections – can help prevent serious Covid-19 outcomes. 

There are currently three antibody treatments authorized for use by the FDA, including REGEN-COV, though use of these drugs remains low. Dr. Rajesh Gandhi of Massachusetts General Hospital said this could change: “As the data get stronger and stronger, I would expect that use will increase.” The Regeneron trial also found REGEN-COV to be equally effective at half its authorized dosage, meaning the company could supply the U.S. with more doses in coming weeks. Though vaccinations are on the rise, antibody treatments could still be a useful option for high-risk patients. 

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Rollout Faces Several Stumbling Blocks

Johnson & Johnson may not deliver the 20 million one-shot vaccine doses it promised by the end of this month, frustrating some senior Biden administration officials (Politico). The White House told states to anticipate 4 to 6 million doses of the shot by next week, though the actual timeline of when vaccines will be delivered remains unclear. The complete 20 million doses may not be ready to ship by over halfway through April.

There are a few logistical constraints that could be slowing Johnson & Johnson down. First of all, doses coming in from Europe have to make their way through a “fill and finish” facility before reaching the U.S. government. Also, the FDA has yet to authorize American companies Emergent BioSolutions and Catalent, who are expected to help deliver “tens of millions” of shots, an unnamed source told Politico. Pharmaceutical company Merck will also manufacture some of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, thanks to a deal announced by the Biden administration earlier in March. 

Pfizer to Expand mRNA Vaccine Efforts

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla announced that the company will be developing new vaccines using mRNA technology, which it currently uses for its coronavirus shot (WSJ). In an mRNA vaccine, the body receives mRNA-coded “information” telling it how to make proteins that help the immune system target a specific virus. Bourla said Pfizer will use its experience from the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as its manufacturing resources, to expand its mRNA vaccine development. “There is a technology that has proven dramatic impact and dramatic potential,” he said. “We are the best positioned company right now to take it to the next step because of our size and our expertise.”

By developing more vaccines, Pfizer could grow financially and reduce its dependence on producing cancer drugs. Also, the company will likely be making Covid-19 booster shots for years, so Bourla said mRNA technology is here to stay. An estimate from Bernstein Research found that if annual coronavirus vaccines become the norm, the global market for these shots could exceed $15 billion in 2023. 

Pfizer will keep working with BioNTech on Covid-19 vaccines, though Bourla said Pfizer now has the experience and resources to produce mRNA vaccines without another company’s help. “We consider it a great acknowledgment for mRNA technologies that companies such as our partner Pfizer are getting involved into building their own mRNA vaccine strategy,” a BioNTech spokesperson said.

Bonus Reads: “Without a Ride, Many in Need Have No Shot at Coronavirus Vaccine,” (WaPo); “Grounded for Spring Break, College Students Talk About Who Got the Shot, And How,” (NPR).

Around the World

Europe

EU to Extend Vaccine Export Curbs

The European Commission will extend its powers to potentially block Covid-19 vaccine exports to Britain and other areas with higher vaccination rates on Wednesday, according to EU officials who spoke to Reuters. The regulation is meant to make vaccine trade reciprocal and proportional to avoid the EU exporting more vaccines than it imports. The regulation does not specify numerical targets, so the change is unlikely to result in a mass export ban of EU-made vaccines, but it gives the EU the ability to withhold shipments abroad if other vaccine-producing countries like Britain and the U.S. disallow exports to the EU. The main focus of the regulation seems to be AstraZeneca, which has drastically cut its supply to the bloc due to production problems in January and has been the center of a spat between Britain and the EU over its contractual obligations, but the legislation could also affect the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Britain is the biggest benefactor of EU vaccine exports. As the New York Times writes, “The European Union allowed pharmaceutical companies to fulfill their contracts by authorizing them to export more than 40 million vaccine doses to 33 countries between February and mid-March, with 10 million going to Britain and 4.3 million to Canada. The bloc has kept about 70 million at home and distributed them to its 27 member nations, but its efforts to mount mass vaccination campaigns have been set back by a number of missteps.” Those missteps are now exacerbated by new waves of the virus sweeping across member states. Bonus Read: “How Europe Fell Behind on Vaccines,” (Politico).

Across Europe, Protestors Clash with Police

After a year of lockdowns and varying levels of restrictions, Europeans are clashing with police as they gather to demonstrate against governments’ measures taken to curb the spread of Covid-19, slow vaccination rollouts, and economic strife. In many cases, demonstrators have been met with pepper spray and police batons and shields, “raising questions about the tactics and role of the police in societies where personal liberties have already given way to public health concerns,” as the New York Times says. Adding to the tension is the lack of clarity around whether or not protests and demonstrations are allowed. In Britain, an early version of the government’s coronavirus regulations contained a provision that allowed nonviolent protests, but that was later removed from a subsequent version, leaving the right to assemble peacefully in limbo for a period. The latest draft, issued on Monday, allows protests under limited circumstances. In Germany, the Federal Constitutional Court upheld the right of its citizens to protest provided they adhere to social distancing rules but there have been demonstrations where thousands gathered close together without masks; in Kassel, for example, police were criticized for allowing unmasked anti-lockdown demonstrators to gather on public squares. “What we’re seeing is a growing level of discontent among members of our society who see a fundamental illegitimacy in law enforcement under the pandemic,” said Clifford Stott, a professor of social psychology at Keele University and an expert in crowd behavior. 

England to Impose Fines on Leisure Travelers

Travelers from England will face 5,000 pound ($6,900) fines in new legislation that is designed to deter non-essential travel and guard the nation against imported Covid-19 infections. The new coronavirus regulations are scheduled to come into force on Monday if lawmakers approve during a vote in Parliament scheduled to take place on Thursday. Travel abroad for leisure is banned until May 17 at least and under the new regulations travelers would have to provide a valid excuse for leaving the country; reasons could include essential work, elite sports competitions, and education purposes (Reuters). There is also an exemption that would allow travel “in connection with the purchase, sale, letting or rental of a residential property,” which opposition lawmakers have argued would allow those wealthy enough to own a second residence to sidestep the law. The new regulations come just as Greece announced it would begin accepting test-run flights from the U.K. next month and Spain announced that next week it will lift entry restrictions that were placed on Britain in late December (Guardian). Daily coronavirus deaths in the U.K. are now at their lowest levels since fall, thanks in large part to the vaccination program that has already reached more than half of adults in the country (NYT). 

Asia

Mumbai Begins Mandatory, Random Testing Blitz

Mumbai has begun a random testing campaign for the coronavirus in shopping centers, railway stations, and other crowded areas using rapid antigen tests. The tests will be taken without an individual’s consent and anyone who resists will be in violation of India’s colonial-era epidemic act and could be subject to fines or imprisonment (NYT). Mumbai has seen active coronavirus cases rise by more than 140% since the beginning of March, leading an overall rise in cases in the state of Maharashtra. In an effort to avoid another lockdown in Mumbai, officials are “trying to implement the existing protocol to the strictest possible level: use of face mask, regulating the number of people in one event, use of hand sanitizer, and now tests,” according to Suresh Kakani, a senior municipal official in Mumbai.

Cherry Blossom Viewing in Japan Curtailed For Second Year 

Japan’s world-famous cherry trees are set to be in full bloom this week across most of the country but the coronavirus pandemic will keep crowds from the usual festivities for the second year in a row. Yuriko Koike, the governor of Tokyo, warned the public against having the normal cherry-blossom parties even though restrictions are being loosened. The government in Tokyo lifted the state of emergency that has been in place since early January (JT). Other officials across the country echoed Koike’s message; Eiji Aoki, the mayor of the Meguro ward, appeared at the meguro River -- one of the best spots for cherry blossoms -- in a video posted on YouTube where he held up a sign asking people to refrain from viewing the blossoms. Festivals have been canceled around the country and some locations are offering virtual tours instead. The blossoms in Shinjuku Gyoen National Garden normally draw as many as 60,000 visitors a day but this year picnics will be limited to only four people and alcohol is prohibited (NYT). Foreign tourists -- and the billions of dollars they bring into the country during the cherry blossom season -- are noticeably absent thanks to border closures. 

U.S. Government & Politics

White House Joins with Various Groups in Campaign Targeting Vaccine Hesitancy, Especially Among Conservatives

The White House is working with a number of groups to discourage vaccine hesitancy including among conservatives in particular (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The Biden administration is enlisting the help of groups including the Christian Broadcasting Network Inc. and Nascar to encourage more people to get the Covid-19 vaccine, particularly members of communities that have been the most skeptical. The administration aims to use such organizations to help persuade conservatives, one of the demographic groups that polls show have significant reluctance to get the coronavirus vaccine.” The campaign was announced by the Ad Council and Covid Collaborative on Tuesday and will run ads on time donated by television and digital media platforms. NASCAR President Steve Phelps stated, “It’s critically important to us that we, as an industry, continue to play a meaningful role in the fight against Covid, including offering our venues to help administer vaccines across the country as quickly as possible.” The effort is also aimed at other groups vulnerable to low vaccination rates. The Journal for example notes, “The administration also urged the American Farm Bureau Federation, an insurance company and lobbying group representing the agricultural industry, to participate. In rural areas, 31% of people said they would definitely get the vaccine, compared with 42% in urban areas and 43% in suburban areas, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.”

Hospitals Pressure Biden Administration for Relief Aid

Congress approved a $178 billion relief fund for health care providers last year, but since President Biden took office, many hospitals haven’t heard anything about the status of these funds (WSJ). Covid-19 has taxed hospital resources – a report done on behalf of the American Hospital Association said losses could range from $53 billion to $122 billion in 2021 – and hospitals are looking to the White House for their money. 

On Thursday, the Department of Health and Human Services said 14% of the aid has yet to be sent out, and another $8.5 billion has been added for rural hospitals. An HHS spokesperson said distributions have so far been directed towards helping uninsured patients. HHS is also reviewing its plan for allocating the remaining funds. Some hospital groups attribute the delay to the fact that the Senate didn’t approve a new HHS secretary until last week. 

AHA executive vice president for government relations Tom Nickels said while his organization wants to collaborate with HHS, many hospitals are suffering financially. “Congress fortunately provided us a sizable amount of funding for hospitals and providers last year. However, the need continues,” he said. “There are places where we have surges of Covid patients, and hospitals experiencing lost revenue.” Some hospitals report that the existing relief funds from Congress have not been enough to offset the financial burden of the pandemic. 

New York City Ends Remote Work for Municipal Employees; Reopens High Schools

On Tuesday, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced that the city’s municipal workforce, the largest in the country, will return to in-person work on May 3 (NYT). The decision comes as the city has been controlling the pandemic. The Times writes, “for the last year, New York City has been running in the shadow of a deadly pandemic, with many city and private sector employees forced to work from home, stripping New York of its lifeblood and devastating its economy. But with virus cases seeming to stabilize and vaccinations becoming more widespread, city officials intend to send a message that New York is close to returning to normal.” Mayor De Blasio stated, “we’re going to make it safe, but we need our city workers back in their offices where they can do the most to help their fellow New Yorkers,” adding, “and it’s also going to send a powerful message about this city moving forward.”

On Monday, New York City reopened its high schools for the first time since November (Politico). However, Politico notes that even with the opening, “the vast majority of students — some 70 percent — will continue to learn entirely from home for now because they chose to sign up for all-remote classes.” On Wednesday, those taking all remote classes will be able to sign up for in-person classes. Politico adds, “middle and high school students who are at home full time can also sign up during the two-week opt-in period, which goes from March 24 through April 7. But there is no timeline for when they may be able to return to school.”

Bonus Read: “Gavin Newsom Feared a Vaccine Nightmare. So He Outsourced California’s Rollout,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Fed President Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen Make First Joint Appearance

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made their first joint appearance testifying before Congress (WSJ). Powell testified, “The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening.” He added, “But the recovery is far from complete, so, at the Fed, we will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes.” Yellen testified “With the passage of the Rescue Plan, I am confident that people will reach the other side of this pandemic with the foundations of their lives intact.”

Airport Retail Shops Hoping for a Resurgence of Travel

Amid indicators that Americans may be traveling more, airport retail shops are hoping that increased travel will boost their prospects after the impact of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes that given their captive audience, such shops have bucked trends in recent years that have harmed brick and mortar shops more generally. However, the Journal notes, “the sharp decline in air travel last year pounded these operations, and airports around the world have reported that annual revenues shrank by more than half last year. U.S. airport shops and restaurants stand to lose $3.4 billion from July 2020 to the end of 2021, according to estimates from the Airport Restaurant & Retail Association. That’s more than three years of profits.” The impact has been international and the Journal adds, “The U.S. has also felt the pain. Longstanding retailers like Powell’s Books shut down at the Portland International Airport in July, while Gap Inc. said in October that it would close its doors at Philadelphia International Airport.”

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “After Covid-19 Vaccine, Grandparents Relish Long-Awaited Reunions With Families,” (WSJ). 

Suburban New Jersey Parents Push for Faster School Reopenings

Suburban parents in New Jersey are pushing for faster school reopenings, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times writes, “Most districts in New Jersey have partially reopened, but one in four children still live in a district where public schools are closed. No state in the Northeast had more districts relying on all-virtual teaching in early March than New Jersey, according to Return To Learn, a database created by a conservative think tank, American Enterprise Institute, and Davidson College. Nationwide, only seven states had a greater proportion of all-remote instruction.” The push has come in the form of protests, online petitions, and the storming of a virtual school board meeting. The pressure also comes despite high infection rates in New Jersey, which, according to the Times, leads the nation in new infections with a weekly average of 45 cases per 100,000 residents. 

Analysis & Arguments

The New Yorker reports on employees of a five star hotel and their experience of the pandemic (New Yorker).

Ezra Klein interviews Senator Bernie Sanders on the Covid stimulus and other issues (NYT).

Derek Thompson writes on the errors both liberals and conservatives make about Florida’s pandemic response (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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