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WTO’s Leading Indicator Points to Continued Trade Resilience

  • Global goods trade shows resilience despite the Middle East conflict, with AI investment boosting electronic components demand, the WTO said.
  • The WTO Trade Barometer fell to 101.7 in June from 102.3 in January, indicating trade growth will moderate but remain above average.
  • The WTO projected trade growth to slow to 2.5% this year from 4.6% in 2025, with AI potentially adding 0.5 percentage points.

 

Canada Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Drops to 6.6% in May

  • Canada’s job market surged in May, adding 87,800 jobs and pulling the unemployment rate to 6.6%.
  • The job gains were much stronger than economists expected, marking the strongest single month since the start of 2024.
  • The jobs data precedes a Bank of Canada policy committee meeting next week, following a second straight quarterly economic contraction.

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Inflation Data Due, ECB Likely to Raise Rates

  • U.S. May inflation data is due in the week ahead, with investors watching for clues on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this year.
  • The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to counteract inflationary impacts.
  • Canada’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2.25%.

 

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