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Steady Jobs Report Expected, Keeping the Fed on Hold
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The latest release of employment data this morning is expected to provide more evidence that labor-market conditions continue to stabilize, a trend that will likely keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates at upcoming policy meetings. Ahead of the release, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday that there have already been some signs of labor-market stabilization and reiterated support for the central bank's wait-and-see approach to rates. The emergence of firm economic data, coupled with
rising energy prices, is causing a swift dial-back on investor rate-cut bets.
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February Jobs Report Expected to Show a Stable Labor Market
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Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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After months of delayed jobs data releases following last year’s historic 43-day government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release a jobs report on its regular Friday schedule. The February employment data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by FactSet estimate that employers added 60,000 jobs last month. That would be a fairly solid pace of monthly job growth, well above the 15,000 monthly average recorded last year. But it’s still weaker than the unexpected 130,000 increase in payrolls logged in January.
The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%. In fact, the Chicago Fed’s real-time unemployment rate forecast is 4.27%, slightly below January’s 4.28% rate.
While the forecast for February’s payrolls remains a bit muted, there is still a possibility of an upside surprise in Friday’s data. Private payrolls expanded by 63,000 in February, ADP reported on Wednesday. That was much stronger than expected and marked the biggest monthly employment gain since July 2025. (Barron's)
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Bowman Says Labor Market Shows Some Signs of Stabilizing
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Fed governor Michelle Bowman said there have been some signs of stabilization in the labor market. Bowman supported the central bank's decision to hold rates steady in January to assess the impact of last year's cuts.
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Since then, she said she is looking forward to seeing more signs of stabilization headed into March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Bowman said she will be watching how the conflict in the Middle East may impact markets, especially in energy. Recent oil price gains have had investors and economists questioning whether those moves could alter the path of monetary policy. "At this point, I think it's too early to tell what the impacts will be," she said. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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Investors Dial Back Fed Rate-Cut Bets
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Interest-rate futures show investors now see a less than 50-50 chance of two or more cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, according to CME data. That's a sharp drop from the 79% chance indicated at the end of last week. A jump in oil and gas prices, spurred by the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, has played a major role in the changing odds. Investors wager that higher inflation will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. A run of solid economic reports has also helped.
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U.S. Has a Big Ask for China: Buy Less Oil from Russia, More From Us
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Ahead of President Trump’s visit to Beijing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is considering putting a tricky trade-off on the agenda for coming talks with his Chinese counterpart: reducing China’s oil purchases from U.S. adversaries like Russia. In private consultations held in recent days with former U.S. officials, business executives and policy analysts, Bessent described a continuing effort to try to get China to instead buy American oil-and-gas products, said people familiar with the meetings.
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Tariffs Are Lower and Businesses Are Racing to Take Advantage
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Companies that have been feeling the pinch from import duties over the past year are scrambling to capitalize on the Supreme Court ruling, even as it has sparked a fresh wave of uncertainty.
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U.S. Jobless Claims Were Unchanged Last Week
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U.S. jobless claims held steady last week as employers preferred to retain staff rather than implement layoffs. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 213,000 in the week through Feb. 28.
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Eurozone Growth Revised Lower for Fourth Quarter
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ADB: Length of Middle East Conflict to Determine Impact on Asia
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The economic impact of the Middle East conflict on Asia will largely depend on how long it drags on, the chief economist of the Asian Development Bank.
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U.N. FAO: World Food Prices Rise for First Time in Five Months
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Global food prices broke a five-month downward trend as rising wheat, vegetable oil and meat levels outweighed declines in cheese and sugar prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
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Wells Fargo Freed From Consent Order Tied to Fake Accounts Scandal
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Photo: Seeger Gray/WSJ
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The Federal Reserve terminated the final public consent order against Wells Fargo related to the bank's fake-account scandal that blew up around a decade ago.
The 2018 order had pointed to “widespread consumer abuses and compliance breakdowns” after Wells employees opened millions of unauthorized customer accounts in a bid to hit internal targets.
On Thursday, the Fed said it had determined Wells had met all of the requirements to remove the consent order after nearly a decade of remediation work. The Fed removed the $2 trillion asset cap that had been tied to that consent order last year, but kept the order in place until now.
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8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
10 a.m.: ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks at Springfield Regional Chamber Outlook 2026 event
3 p.m.: Consumer Credit
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10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index
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Credit Markets Face Multiple Threats But Look Well-Placed to Cope
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Besides the effects of the Middle East war, credit markets also face threats from AI disruption, uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, and possible losses in private credit, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Credit issuers appear to be in good financial positions, however, and able to cope with the risks, Valencia says. "We believe that [credit] spreads are likely to remain well supported as long as corporate fundamentals remain solid." In addition, a strong amount of cash in the market is likely to drive demand and support credit markets, he says. — Miriam Mukuru
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WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.
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