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Asia in Review

No. 6, February/2020, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers, 

Welcome to the second February issue of ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) updating you on the latest developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia. 

I wish you an informative read.

With the best wishes,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: President Xi faces demands to step down

(dql) In the wake of the outbreak and spread of the corona virus, China’s leadership including President Xi Jinping has become target of domestic criticism. Chinese scholars blamed the government and even demanded Xi to step down for failing to control the epidemic and for being unable to handle this and other major crises including the trade war with the USA and the Hong Kong protests. [South China Morning Post]

The critics came amid a nationwide outcry on social media against the government for silencing the doctor who in December warned of a deadly virus and last week succumbed to the virus. Instead of following his warning up, he was summoned by the police for spreading rumors and told "stop making false comments". [BBC]

In his account on Beijing's management of the public health crisis, focusing on the newly established 'Central Leading Small Group for Work to Counter the New Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia Epidemic', John Dotson argues that “CCP central leadership has been caught off-guard by the virus epidemic, and that it has been far more rattled than its confident pronouncements would seem to admit.” [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief] 

China’s National Health Commission confirmed 42,638 cases and 1,016 deaths in China as of February 10. [National Health Commission, China] 

China/Hong Kong: Commemoration of death of student ends up in violence between protesters and police

(dql) Protesters and police clashed past Saturday when around 100 protesters gathered to commemorate the death of a university student who died from the injuries after falling at a car park last November while police were carrying out a dispersal operation nearby by firing tear gas. The protesters shouted anti-government slogans including “Five demands, not one less” and “Liberate Hong Kong; revolution of our times.” [South China Morning Post]

South Korea: Liberty Korea Party launches sister party for electoral tactics and threatens to impeach President Moon

(dql) Two months ahead of the general elections the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) is beefing up its election tactics by launching a sister party whose sole aim is to secure additional proportionate representative seats in the parliament. [Korea Herald 1]

LPK’s move is a response to the recently revised electoral law which makes it easier for minor parties to boost their presence in parliament by obtaining proportional representation seats based on their share of votes. [AiR No. 53, December/2019, 5]

In another development, the LKP has announced that it will push for a motion to impeach President Moon Jae-in in case an ongoing investigation would prove that he was involved in an alleged fraud in the context a mayoral election in 2018 which a long-term friend of Moon won. [Korea Herald 2]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Pakistan: Resolution calls for public hanging for child molesters 

(fs) On Friday, Pakistani parliament passed a non-binding resolution calling for the public hanging of convicted child killers and rapists, evoking heavy criticism from human rights organizations. 

Although more than half of the lawmakers voted in favor of the resolution, which was supported by the ruling Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf party, Pakistan's human rights minister emphasized the government’s disapproval of the parliament’s decision. Amnesty International issued a statement saying “public hangings are acts of unconscionable cruelty and have no place in a rights-respecting society”. The NGO Justice Project Pakistan stated in addition that there is no existence of “empirical evidence to show that public hangings are a deterrent to crime or in protecting the psycho-social well-being of children”.

Human rights organizations urged the country to reinstate a moratorium on the death penalty, which was lifted after the Army Public School massacre in Peshawar in 2014 that killed 151 people. Since then, capital punishment has been executed several hundred times. [Daily Mail] [France24]

Sri Lanka: Police crackdown on demonstrators just days after freedom speech

(tk) Last week, armed police commandos were deployed against dismissed Dengue Eradication Campaign workers who were demonstrating outside the presidential secretariat. The demonstration was directed against the recent dismissal of 15,000 government employees from different sectors by the Rajapakse government, which claims that the previous administration “irregularly” hired them. 

After thousands of dismissed workers have demonstrated outside the presidential secretariat in the past weeks, Rajapakse’s office stated that the protests were an “inconvenience to the general public”. Thereupon, the Police forced protestors into an established “Agitation Site” where all demonstrations should be held surrounded by armed police commandos. The events happened only two days after President Rajapakse’s “freedom” posturing during his Independence Day speech. [World Socialist Web Site]

Nepal: Controversial Politician accused of murder becomes Speaker of the House 

(jk) For many years, human rights groups have tried to initiate an independent investigation in a murder case implementing a standing committee member of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). The case dates back to 2005, but in the absence of a thorough investigation, Agni Prasad Sapkota continued his political career and has been elected as speaker of the house in late January. His predecessor is accused of rape, a fact not lost on those who lament a "culture of impunity" among Nepal's top politicians. [The Kathmandu Post] 

Nepal has a long way to go in a credible transitional justice process 14 years after the end of its civil war. [Al Jazeera]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Thailand: Constitutional Court rules budget bill "partially" constitutional 

(jk) This past week, Thailand's constitutional court ruled on the legality of the country's 2020 budget bill. As reported, members of Thailand’s House of Representatives had requested a Constitutional Court ruling on its validity after at least two MPs did not vote in person but had their votes casted on their behalf.  [Asia in Review, No. 4, January/2020, 4]

The court now decided that votes in the second and third reading shall be recast, but upheld the overall legality of the bill and said in a statement that the first round of voting "went smoothly". With the government currently having a decent majority in Parliament, observers expect the bill not to be voted down. After some MPs and parties have changed aisles, the remaining six parties in the opposition hold less than 240 out of the 500 seats.

With regards to a similar situation in 2014, when a Yingluck-sponsored infrastructure bill was nullified over proxy-voting, the court said it would see some significant differences in the two cases. One of these was that the court enjoyed more leeway under new procedures laid down for it in recent provisions. [Bangkok Post] [AIPA]

A former Thai Minister of Commerce, and Pheua Thai party member, was among the first to question the Constitutional Court’s ruling. He stated on his Facebook page numerous reasons to question the ruling, for instance that in his view, the "process of legislation comprises three readings and, if any reading is invalid, the entire process for passing that legislation is null and void." [Thai PBS 1] Another critique was that the nine Constitutional Court judges did not read a "full text of their ruling" from the bench but rather issued a press release only. [Thai PBS 2]

Malaysia: Trial against former MP’s wife begins 

(fs) On Wednesday, the corruption trial against Rosmah Mansor, the wife of former prime minister Najib Razak, started in Kuala Lumpur. The court charges Rosmah on the account of soliciting and receiving bribes involving a sum of US$45.93 million to support a company in a solar power project. She faces up to 20 years in jail if found guilty. At the same time, Rosmah is separately charged on the account of money laundering and failure to declare income to the country’s tax authorities. 

“Although she did occupy no official position, she placed herself in a where she was able to influence decisions in the public sector by reason of her overbearing nature”, the prosecutor stressed. During her husband’s tenure in power, a special division was created to handle programs involving Rosmah, called First Lady of Malaysia, constituting a controversial novelty in Malaysian history. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

Laos: Authorities ban shrines of local religion 

(fs) In Sekong, the southern Laos region, local authorities issued a ban on erecting shrines in front of houses directed at the Talieng ethnic group on grounds of being offensive to Buddhism. While two thirds of Laotians are Buddhist, there are many minority religions spread across the country. In Sekong, 23,000 people are members of the Talieng ethnic group. Although the Laotian Constitution grants freedom of religion, the government limits and represses believers’ right on a frequent basis. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar: Internet Shutdown expanded in Rakhine State

(tk) Myanmar authorities have reinstated the shutdown of mobile internet traffic in five more townships in Myanmar’s northwestern Rakhine and Chin states. Already in June 2019, Myanmar authorities had ordered telecommunications companies to shut down internet services in four Rakhine State townships. [Asia in Review 4/6/2019]

This earlier shutdown had been lifted in September, but now due to “security requirements and public interest”, re-imposed in a total of nine townships. The internet shutdown causes an information and communication blackout that affects approximately one million people. Human rights experts say that shutting down entire parts of communications systems can never be justified under human rights law. [Human Rights Watch]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Chinese military officials charged over massive data hack

(dql) US federal prosecutors announced charges against four Chinese intelligence officers accused of hacking the credit-reporting giant Equifax back in 2017 exposing sensitive financial records of almost 150 million Americans and many other foreigners. [New York Times]

Beijing denies the allegations, insisting that “the Chinese government, military and relevant personnel never engage in cyber theft of trade secrets” while accusing in return Washington of “cyber intrusion, surveillance and monitoring activities on foreign governments, institutions, enterprises, universities and individuals, including on its allies”. [Xinhua]

China-USA trade relations: Beijing to cut tariffs on US goods

(dql) Signaling efforts to implement the recently signed ‘Phase One’ trade deal [AiR No. 3, January/2020, 3], China announced last week that it will cut tariffs by February 14. While Beijing will reduce tariffs on 75 billion USD worth of American goods. [Reuters]

Japan-South Korea relations: Tokyo’s second complaint against Seoul at the WTO within two weeks

(dql) Following a first a petition filed in January against South Korea with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over what it views as excessive subsidies to South Korea's domestic shipbuilding industry, Japan on Monday launched a second complaint at the WTO in the same matter. [Reuters]

Japan’s move worsens the already strained relations between both countries which are embroiled in a political and economic dispute which originates from a spat on compensation payments for South Korean victims of forced labor during Japan’s rule on the Korean peninsula from 1910-1945.

North Korea accused of breach of UN sanctions

(dql) According to a United Nation report, North Korea continued to enhance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs in 2019 in violation of UN sanctions. Furthermore, the report accuses Pyongyang illicit import of refined petroleum and export of coal worth 370 million USD.  [Reuters]

Cross-strait relations: Chinese warplanes cross median line in Taiwan Strait

(dql) Taiwan’s air force scrambled after Chinese warplanes on Monday crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait on their way to the western Pacific. While Taiwan denounced the move as threat to regional peace, reassuring that it will not bow to China’s threats, the People's Liberation Army announced that its forces carried out the drills “to further refine and test their multi-service joint combat capabilities."

The incident came as Taiwan’s vice-president-designate William Lai Ching-te concluded his week-long ‘private’ visit to the US. He has been considered the highest-level Taiwanese official to meet with National Security Council officials since the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taipei in 1979. [The Diplomat][Aljazeera][South China Morning Post]

India-USA relations: Tightening relationships to counter China as global power

(tk/jk) President Trump is expected to visit India in late February and sign a limited trade deal with Modi which will be a significant rapprochement after more than a year of escalating tariffs and counter-tariffs. The premise of this relationship is to balance the offensive emergence of China seeking to expand its global reach. 

For President Trump, who has been facing an impeachment trial and is beginning his re-election campaign, even a modest deal with India would allow him to tell voters that his tough talk on trade is working. For Modi, it could help to counter India’s economic slowdown and ease perceptions that his nationalist government is hostile to foreign companies.

Some protestors in India fear an intensification of Modi’s Hindu nationalism as a threat to India’s secular democracy by close relations to President Trump who appeared sympathetic to Modi after he revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and passed a controversial citizenship law that excludes Muslims. At the recent “Howdy Modi” event in the US, Trump said: “India and the United States understand that to keep our communities safe, we must protect our borders.” [The New York Times] [AXIOS]

India already made the first step in this relationship by giving final approval to a $2.6bn deal to buy military helicopters from a United States defense firm. Those helicopters are meant to help the Indian navy track submarines in the Indian Ocean, where China is rapidly expanding its presence. [Al Jazeera]

On a related, yet more domestic note, India has disappointed observers of its defense posturing when India’s finance minister presented the country’s budget earlier in February. The country's defense budget increased by 5% from last year, but considering inflation observers call this "a cut in real terms" and nowhere near enough to even attempt to address the structural challenges that are there. 

In addition, with an eye on naval competition in the Indian Ocean, the allocations for the various military services remain concerning. The army has received 56, the air force 23, and the navy only 15 percent of the budget. At any rate, at only 1.5 % of GDP overall, India won't be making any major strides towards modernization of its military any time soon. [Asia Times] [Observer Research Foundation]

Pakistan: Plea for Kashmir discussion at IOC denied 

(fs) Saudi Arabia again turned down Pakistan’s immediate request to convene a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) on the current situation in Kashmir. Prime Minister Imran Khan criticized the division between the Islamic countries and stressed the urgency to clear up the issue. He has been lobbying for an OIC foreign ministers’ meeting since India revoked the special status of Kashmir in August last year [The Hindu]. 

Philippines: Official Termination of Visiting Force Agreement with U.S.

(tk/jk) After President Duterte threatened the U.S. last week to terminate their Visiting Force Agreement (VFA), Philippines’ Foreign Secretary Locsin has now officially signed the Philippines’ notice of termination of the agreement. This comes as a response to the visa denial of Senator Ronald dela Rosa by the U.S. embassy last week. [Asia in Review No. 5, February/2020]. Earlier, Locsin warned of the far-reaching consequences of the VFA abrogation. He said, “the continuance of the agreement is deemed to be more beneficial to the Philippines compared to any benefits were it to be terminated.” [Rappler]

Many observers are concerned that the termination will further embolden China in its efforts to extend its control in particular over its maritime neighborhood. [Inquirer 1] The Philippine government stated Duterte wants to focus on strengthening the Philippines’ own defense capabilities, but also noted it would remain open to sign defense agreements with other countries. [Inquirer 2]

Vietnam: NGOs urge MEPs to postpone Vietnam trade deal vote 

(fs) After the European Union gave green light to the free trade agreement with Vietnam at the end of January [Asia in Review No 4, January/2020, 4], 28 NGOs signed a letter that demanded to postpone the plenary vote next week. In the letter addressed to members of the European Parliament, the NGOs expressed regret that even though Vietnam had failed to fulfill requests to improve human rights to the satisfaction of MEPs, the International Trade Committee (INTA) voted to quickly consent to both agreements, going against recommendations of the Foreign Affairs Committee (AFET) and ignoring the pleas of NGOs, both international and Vietnamese.

As an example, the letter mentioned the 2019 EP’s refusal of ratification of the EU Turkmenistan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement because of the country’s unwillingness to abide by human rights and the rule of law. In particular, the NGOs urged Vietnam to disclose the legal mechanics behind the frequent use of penal provisions against journalists, lawyers and activists and to release political prisoners and detainees. The MEP’s decision will be made this week. [Human Rights Watch]

Singapore and the U.S. will engage in cross-border data transfer

(fs) The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the U.S. Treasury revealed plans in a joint statement for data transfer by financial firms without the need for data localization, meaning that access to the data would not be limited within the territorial borders. This is subject to the condition that financial regulators have access to data needed for regulatory and supervisory purposes.

Although not legally binding, the two countries intend to promote and implement policies in order to achieve various goals: to ensure the ability of cross-border electronic data transferals, to oppose restrictions against where data can be stored and processed assuming regulators have access, to facilitate detection of cross-border money laundering and terrorist financing patterns and the chance to remedy lack of data access before being required to use local facilities. [The Straits Times]

Background Reading

Thailand: Southern Thailand’s Peace Dialogue: Giving Substance to Form

(jk) Over six years ago, a peace dialogue process between the Thai government and an umbrella organisation of Malay-Muslim separatist from southern Thailand - MARA Patani (Patani Consultative Council)- has begun. To date, the process has not been much of a success. With the government appointing a new leader for its side of the discussion back in October 2019, many are hoping for some movement and fresh approaches. A detailed in-depths report on the issue and possible ways ahead were collated and written by the International Crisis Group earlier this year. [International Crisis Group]  

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