Good day. The Federal Reserve has an emergency playbook for the debt-ceiling impasse courtesy of previous political struggles over the borrowing cap. Moves the Fed might take include purchasing Treasurys if investors do not because of the risk of delayed payments, according to the transcript of an October 2013 conference call. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, then a central bank governor, said some moves would be “loathsome” because they risked violating the Fed’s preference to stay out of fiscal policy. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a key centrist on the Fed’s policy-setting committee, suggested on Thursday that barring further weakness in the economic outlook, she would be prepared to lift the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s June 13-14 meeting.

Now on to today’s news and analysis.

Washington’s debt-limit impasse could soon force officials at the Federal Reserve to revisit a crisis-management playbook they put together during similar fights a decade ago.

The conflict risks leaving the Treasury Department unable to pay all its bills on time, including its obligations to holders of U.S. government securities—the lifeblood of global markets. Severe financial turmoil from the threat of a missed payment could compel the Fed to run to the rescue.

The Fed’s options include buying Treasurys shunned by investors because of the risk of a delayed payment or allowing banks to pledge defaulted securities as collateral for loans from the central bank, according to the transcript of an October 2013 conference call.

• The House of Representatives could vote on a debt-ceiling deal as soon as next week, according to Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The California Republican told reporters he thinks an eventual bill to raise the borrowing limit needs to be on the House floor next week and that he can “see the path.” McCarthy and President Joe Biden have designated representatives to negotiate a deal while Biden is attending a G-7 meeting in Japan. (MarketWatch)
   
• How Close Could the U.S. Get to a Default in June?
   

The amount of money U.S. banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve rose for the second week in a row, a sign that stress on the financial system hasn’t totally gone away. Total borrowing rose to $96.1 billion in the seven days ending May 17, from $92.4 billion in the prior week. Bank loans from the emergency Bank Term Funding Program totaled $87 billion in the seven days ending May 17, up from $83.1 billion in the prior week. Bank borrowing from the Fed’s traditional discount window fell slightly to $9.1 billion from $9.3 billion in the prior week. (MarketWatch)

• Zelensky Travels to Saudi Arabia to Address Arab Leaders 
• China Touts Its Diplomatic Strength in Russia’s Backyard
• Ukraine Races to Forge New Army Ahead of Offensive

Having advertised its annual budget delivered Thursday as a “no frills” affair, the New Zealand government instead unveiled a generous increase in fiscal stimulus that could result in a harsh response by the country’s inflation-weary central bank as early as next week. 

Economists have moved to raise their GDP growth forecasts, with some now penciling in a 50-basis-point rise in the official cash rate at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting Wednesday. Read more. 

8:45 a.m.: New York Fed’s Williams speaks at Federal Reserve Research Conference
9 a.m.: Fed’s Bowman speaks at Texas Bankers Association 138th Annual Convention
11 a.m.: Fed’s Powell in panel discussion with Ben Bernanke at Federal Reserve Research Conference

8:30 a.m.: St. Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks at American Gas Association’s Financial Forum
10 a.m.: FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator for EU for May
10:50 a.m.: Richmond Fed’s Barkin and Atlanta Fed’s Bostic on panel at  Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference
11:05 a.m.: San Francisco Fed’s Daly speaks at National Association for Business Economics/Banque de France International Economic Symposium

Headwinds in the manufacturing sector could put a lid on any economic rebound in Europe, HSBC economist Christian Fuertjes writes in a note. Germany’s ZEW survey and the Banque de France’s latest releases reflect the bleak outlook for the sector, after industrial production plunged in March, led by Italy and Germany, he writes. It appears the supportive effect from easing supply-chain disruptions has already faded, Fuertjes adds, and he forecasts industrial output to stagnate in Germany until the end of 2024. It is a dark spot as the European economy has otherwise shown resilience to headwinds, with the eurozone’s top four countries plus the U.K. growing in the first quarter, albeit only marginally for the latter country and Germany, he writes.

—Edward Frankl

Previous government shutdowns have caused only minor blips in economic growth and have not left the U.S. a deadbeat nation, so if the MAGA minority insists on throwing a temper tantrum, a shutdown is a far better option than a default, Alan S. Blinder writes.

Mr. Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton, served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, 1994-96. He is the author, most recently, of “A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021.”

More consolidation lies ahead for private equity as firms look to amass fee-generating assets.

Renewable-energy companies are leasing warehouses at a faster pace, boosting the otherwise sagging demand for industrial real estate.

Companies outside of the tech sector are facing an uphill battle in recruiting Big Tech’s laid-off software developers, engineers and data scientists.

Changes to how companies account for renewable energy may lift the veil on actual usage vs. credits bought to offset fossil-fuel use.

• Applications for first-time unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell last week, after hitting the highest level in a year and a half. Initial filings for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, declined by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 in the week ended May 13, the Labor Department said Thursday, down from an unrevised 264,000 the prior week, the highest level since October 2021. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index that measures U.S. business cycles slipped 0.6% to 107.5 in April after decreasing by 1.2% in March, marking the 13th consecutive month of declines as signs of an impending downturn in economic activity intensify. (DJN)
• Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area contracted in May for the ninth consecutive month amid persistent high levels of inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday its index for current general activity edged up to minus 10.4 from minus 31.3 in April. The data suggests activity continued to contract as the index came in below zero. (DJN)
• Global trade flows jumped in March, led by a surge in Chinese exports following the removal of Covid-19 restrictions and contributing to a stronger-than-expected start to the year for the global economy. An indicator of goods trade flows developed by The Wall Street Journal and published Thursday points to a 5.7% rise from February, adjusted for the seasonal ups and downs of exports of goods between countries. (DJN)
• Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the bank's stance to maintain monetary easing and warned of the risk of premature tightening. Japan is finally seeing signs of inflation moving toward 2% and "making hasty policy changes" could ruin such positive developments, Ueda said in a speech Friday. (DJN)
• Malaysia's trade surplus narrowed in April, with exports and imports declining, due mainly to lower shipments of electrical and electronic products, palm oil and palm-based agriculture products. (DJN)
• Confidence among U.K. consumers improved for the fourth month in a row in May amid signs of easing inflation, despite the squeeze on spending prompted by climbing interest rates. (DJN)

This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco.

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