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October 28, 2020 - Brief Issue 112

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Eli Lilly Antibody Trial in Advanced Covid-19 Patients Cancelled (Health & Science)

Pfizer Vaccine Trial Progressing Slower Than Previously Hoped (Health & Science)

HHS Deploys Additional Covid-19 “Surge Testing” in Hard-Hit States (Health & Science)

Preliminary Study Suggests Flu Shot Might Reduce Covid Infections (Health & Science)

Some Countries Shift to Shorter Quarantines (Around the World)

The New York Times Details Trump and Bolsonaro’s Negligence on the Pandemic (Around the World)

Mayor of Mexico City Tests Positive, Cases Surge (Around the World)

Russia Imposes Mask Mandate (Around the World)

Merkel Wants State Premiers to Agree to “Lockdown Light” (Around the World)

Millions Vote in India’s First Election to be Held Amid Coronavirus (Around the World)

Push for Pre-Election Stimulus Fails as Congress Leaves Town (U.S. Government & Politics)

Medicaid/Medicare to Cover Emergency Use Covid Vaccines (U.S. Government & Politics)

Rental Market Struggles Could Lead to Housing Crisis (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Raises Obstacles to Renouncing U.S. Citizenship (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 8,779,703 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 226,723 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,487,666 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 1,348,457,135 tests. Worldwide, there have been 44,010,870 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,167,817 deaths. At least 29,825,804 people have recovered from the virus. 

Eli Lilly Antibody Trial in Advanced Covid-19 Patients Cancelled

The pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly said in a statement Monday that its clinical trial of an antibody therapy in patients hospitalized with severe Covid-19 has been cancelled (WSJ, NYT). The trial, which tested an antibody called bamlanivimab in combination with remdesivir, had previously been paused in order to investigate a potential safety concern. However, the company stated that a review of updated data found no benefit to treatment in hospitalized Covid-19 patients, and the clinical trial was cancelled. Similar trials are ongoing in patients with mild to moderate Covid-19, and preliminary data from these trials suggest that bamlanivimab may help prevent disease progression.

Pfizer Vaccine Trial Progressing Slower Than Previously Hoped

Dr. Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s Chief Executive Officer, announced Tuesday that preliminary results regarding the vaccine’s efficacy would not be available by the end of October as previously hoped (NYT, STAT). The trial’s protocol states that once at least 32 people in the trial contract Covid-19, an initial analysis can take place. If more than 26 of the 32 infected people are in the placebo group, the vaccine will be considered to be effective.

As of Tuesday, however, fewer than 32 people in the trial had become infected, indicating that the study is progressing more slowly than expected. Dr. Bourla stated that, since an outside panel would require at least a week to analyze the results, no results are likely to become available before the November 3 election. Even though Pfizer is now unlikely to have an update before the end of October, the company still expects to be able to request emergency approval of their vaccine toward the end of November as planned.

HHS Deploys Additional Covid-19 “Surge Testing” in Hard-Hit States

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has set up additional Covid-19 testing sites in Kentucky, Missouri, Utah and South Dakota, four states that are experiencing high caseloads (Bloomberg, Forbes). Last week, sites were deployed in North Carolina and Wisconsin, and eight additional sites will be set up next week. HHS hopes the free test sites will encourage asymptomatic individuals to seek testing and help drive cases back down. Earlier this summer, similar testing in Florida, Louisiana and Texas proved helpful in curbing outbreaks and encouraging those without symptoms to be tested.

Preliminary Study Suggests Flu Shot Might Reduce Covid Infections

A new study conducted by a team in the Netherlands found that hospital workers who received their flu vaccine during the 2019-2020 season were less likely to contract Covid-19 (Scientific American). According to the study, which was published as a pre-print and has not yet undergone peer review, those who got a flu vaccine were 39% less likely to test positive for Covid-19 as of June 1, 2020.

The group also conducted a study in cells which provided clues as to how this phenomenon might work. In the experiment, one group of blood cells was exposed to Vaxigrip Tetra flu vaccine while another group was not. Then, both sets of cells were exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. The cells that were first exposed to the flu vaccine produced more cytokines – molecules that help fight infection – in response to SARS-CoV-2. Although overproduction of cytokines late in the course of a Covid-19 infection (sometimes called a cytokine storm) can be detrimental, production of cytokines early in the infection helps neutralize the virus and can lead to milder disease.

The study, while interesting, does not prove that flu vaccines prevent Covid-19. Dr. Mihai Netea, the lead researcher on the study, acknowledged that there could be other factors at play. For example, the people who got their flu shot may have been more health-conscious and therefore more likely to follow health guidelines during the pandemic. Netea, along with other researchers around the world, plans to conduct additional studies to investigate the possible effects of the flu vaccine on Covid-19 infections.

Studies Show Decrease in Antibodies to Covid-19 Over Time, Suggesting Reinfection May Be Possible; Experts Caution Some Headlines Overblown

Three recent studies have found that antibodies to Covid-19 decline over time, suggesting the possibility of reinfection. The British REACT2 study, conducted by Imperial College and the Ipsos Mori polling company, collected random samples from over 365,000 individuals around the U.K. between June 20 and the end of September and found that antibody prevalence, indicating immunity to Covid-19, dropped from 6.0% to 4.4% during that time (Politico, WSJ, NYT). However, some experts expressed caution that studies showing declining antibodies over time should not necessarily be understood as evidence of declining immunity. Scott Hensley, a University of Pennsylvania immunologist, told the Times, “Some of these headlines are silly,” adding, that declining antibodies “is the sign of a normal healthy immune response.” In contrast, Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious disease department at Imperial College London, told reporters that these recent results suggest that Covid-19 shares a similar immune profile to the common cold, which can reinfect people approximately every 6 months (Politico). However, she added, “we don’t yet know what level of antibody is needed in a person’s blood to prevent reinfection.” The study has not yet undergone peer review.

Another U.K. study examined 96 people who had tested positive for Covid-19 and tested for the presence of antibodies between 8 days and 94 days after onset of symptoms (CIDRAP). The study found that the presence of neutralizing antibodies dropped sharply 50-60 days after symptom onset in most patients, although antibodies were still detectable at the end of the study in some patients with higher initial levels.

A Portuguese study that examined more than 500 individuals who had contracted Covid-19 found that although levels of neutralizing antibodies waned over time, they were still detectable at six months after symptom onset in 90% of subjects (CIDRAP). The authors of the study suggested that some degree of protective immunity to Covid-19 would likely persist in an infected individual for several years, reducing the severity of future infections during that period.

Study Shows Cognitive Impacts of the Coronavirus

A study from the Imperial College London, which has not yet undergone peer review, found that severe cases of Covid-19 can cause substantial cognitive decline lasting for months (Reuters). In the study, 84,285 people completed the Great British Intelligence Test, which measures cognitive abilities. Among participants who had been previously diagnosed with and recovered from Covid-19, the test found substantial impairment, even after controlling for factors such as age, education, and income. More severe Covid-19 symptoms were associated with greater cognitive deficits after recovery, but even those who reported only mild symptoms performed worse on the test than people who had not been diagnosed with Covid-19. Among those who had required a ventilator, the cognitive deficit was the equivalent of 8.5 lost IQ points.

The authors of the study note that additional research, including long-term follow-up with their study participants, is needed to determine the precise impact of Covid-19 on cognitive function. Dr. Derek Hill, a professor of medical imaging science at University College London who was not involved with the study, said the study was limited in that it did not compare before and after scores and relied on self-reporting of Covid-19 diagnosis. Hill called the study, “overall an intriguing but inconclusive piece of research into the effect of Covid on the brain.”

Around the World

Some Countries Shift to Shorter Quarantines

An increasing number of countries are cutting down the length of time that those who were potentially exposed to coronavirus need to self-quarantine to reduce the risk of spreading Covid-19 in an effort to boost compliance (WSJ). Some health experts support the idea of shorter quarantines, saying that in places where pandemic fatigue is setting in, burdensome restrictions like a full 14-day quarantine could be complicating efforts to contain the virus. But the World Health Organization says the shorter quarantine times are a gamble and will likely result in some cases going unnoticed. France cut its quarantine requirement down from 14 days to seven for those who were in contact with someone confirmed to have Covid-19 after health authorities concluded that citizens were reluctant to stay home for two weeks and the risk of spreading the virus lessened over time. As the Journal writes: “Belgium similarly shortened its quarantine period to seven days from 14 on Oct. 1, also citing weak compliance, but raised it to 10 days on Oct. 19 after a surge in cases. Spain in September cut its period of self-isolation after contact with a coronavirus carrier to 10 days from 14. In Germany, public-health officials have said the quarantine period can be reduced to 10 days from 14 starting Nov. 8, though it is up to individual states to decide if they want to follow that recommendation.” The U.K. is also considering shortening its quarantine time. 

The Americas

The New York Times Details Trump and Bolsonaro’s Negligence on the Pandemic

A report by the New York Times details how U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro worked together to contribute to the devastation wreaked by the coronavirus across Latin America. The piece says the two presidents “waged an ideological campaign that would undermine Latin America’s ability to respond to Covid-19 “ due to their “ shared disregard for the virus.” In particular, the article lays out the way Trump and bolsonaro drove out 10,000 Cuban doctors and nurses from impoverished areas of Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, and El Salvador only months before the pandemic began, attacked and bankrupted the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO), and pushed an ineffective and dangerous drug, hydroxychloroquine, as a “cure.” While the Times admits that the weak health systems and overcrowded cities across Latin America made the area especially vulnerable to the coronavirus, Trump and Bolsonaro “made a bad situation worse.” Latin America now has a third of the world’s deaths due to Covid-19. 

Mayor of Mexico City Tests Positive, Cases Surge

The Mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, tested positive for the coronavirus, she announced on Tuesday, saying in a Tweet that she did not have symptoms and felt “strong” (NYT). She is the highest profile politician in Mexico to contract the virus and her city is currently experiencing a surge in cases and is the center of the country’s pandemic. The Mayor is a scientist by training and has pushed widespread testing and contact tracing and also required face coverings on public transport. Mexico has confirmed close to 900,000 cases and more than 89,000 deaths, but health officials say that is an underestimate of the true toll because testing remains scarce.

Europe

Russia Imposes Mask Mandate 

On Tuesday the Russian government made its most aggressive move yet against the coronavirus pandemic, requiring masks in public places throughout the country (CBS). Now, masks will be mandatory in public transportation, parking lots and elevators, and any place where more than 50 people are gathered. The federal health watchdog agency, Rospotrebnadzor, also encouraged the governors of Russia’s 85 regions to enact a curfew for restaurants and entertainment venues (NYT). Russian President Vladimir Putin has avoided taking any nationwide measures in recent months, instead leaving it to the regional leaders to decide on local action. A national lockdown in April and May hurt Russia’s economy and officials have been hesitant to put additional restrictions in place now. Russia has had over 1,520,000 cases of COVID-19 and over 26,000 deaths since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

Merkel Wants State Premiers to Agree to “Lockdown Light”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is meeting with state premiers on Wednesday and is hoping they can agree to close all restaurants, bars, gyms, clubs, and cinemas from Nov. 4 in an effort to curb coronavirus infections. The draft resolution, seen by Reuters, allows schools and daycares to remain open. Shops can also stay open as long as they implement hygiene measures and limit customers. Under the proposed restrictions, which is being billed as “lockdown light,” people would only be allowed out in public with members of their own household and one other household and those disobeying the order would be punished (Bild). The exponential increase in infections across all regions of Germany is pushing local health authorities to their breaking point, meaning that tracking and tracing all infections is becoming impossible. Germany was widely praised for its low infection rate in the initial phase of the pandemic, but is now facing a surge in cases, with numbers increasing by 11,409 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the total to 449,275 confirmed infections since the start of the pandemic.

Asia

Millions Vote in India’s First Election to be Held Amid Coronavirus 

India, the world’s largest democracy, also has one of the world’s worst outbreaks of coronavirus with nearly 8 million infections, but that didn’t prevent voters from lining up for the first day of a three-phase election for a new legislature in the state of Bihar. It is India’s first state assembly election being held since the beginning of the pandemic and is putting hygiene and social distancing measures to the test. “Face masks and sanitizers have been provided to the staff deployed on election duty,” a polling officer in the holy city of Gaya, who declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak to the media, told Reuters. “Face masks are also being provided to people who are reaching polling stations without wearing one.” Bihar is India’s third-most populous state with more than 100 million people. Voting will end on Nov. 7. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Push for Pre-Election Stimulus Fails as Congress Leaves Town

Following the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday, the Senate adjourned, dashing hopes that Congress might pass a stimulus and coronavirus relief bill before the election (WaPo, CBS). The Washington Post writes, “After days of bitterly partisan debate and a vote late Monday confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, senators are headed back home to campaign for re-election.” The House of Representatives had already been out of session for weeks though Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi had continued negotiations with the White House over a potential deal. Negotiations will likely continue in the post-election lame duck session. But it is not clear how the election will affect incentives regarding the bill. Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) told the Post, “We’ll come back in November,” adding, “The question might be, will there be something then?” If a bill doesn’t pass in November, the next chance might be in February, even as businesses and the public express concern about the impact of more months without further relief.

Medicaid/Medicare to Cover Emergency Use Covid Vaccines

New regulations to be announced this week by the Trump administration will allow Medicare and Medicaid to cover the costs of Covid-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use, according to a report in Politico on Monday (Politico). Politico writes, “Under the planned rule, Medicare and Medicaid will now cover vaccines that receive emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, the people said, which is a change from current policy. The regulations, which have been under development for weeks, are likely to be announced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on Tuesday or Wednesday.” The issue of whether vaccines authorized only for emergency use would be covered has increased in importance recently as at least two vaccine developers expect to have vaccines approved for such use by the end of November. Bonus Read: “As Coronavirus Cases Surge, Trump Has Another Message,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “3M Benefits From Higher Demand for Face Masks, Consumer Goods,” (WSJ).

Rental Market Struggles Could Lead to Housing Crisis

The struggling rental market could lead to a new housing crisis, according to a Tuesday report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “A housing crisis centered on the vast apartment and home-rental markets is emerging in the U.S., threatening to send millions of renters into eviction and leave landlords short billions of dollars. A large number of renters have been unable to pay some or even all of their rent since March, when the pandemic temporarily shut down most businesses. Many businesses remain closed or only partially open, pushing renters into unemployment and draining their savings.” The crisis could be exacerbated in January when the current moratorium on evictions expires. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates that rental debt could hit $7.2 billion by the end of the year while Moody’s estimates it could hit $70 billion in the absence of new stimulus funding. The Journal notes, “Even the larger figure would be far less than what was lost when the $1.3 trillion subprime-mortgage bubble burst, leading to a national wave of defaults and foreclosures. But the tens of millions of people potentially caught in a web of home-rental debt and eviction would far exceed the 3.8 million homeowners who were foreclosed on in 2007-2010.”

Bonus Read: “Recession’s Silver Lining: American Households Are Doing Better Than Expected,” (NYT).

U.S. Society

Pandemic Raises Obstacles to Renouncing U.S. Citizenship

The coronavirus pandemic has generated a range of new obstacles for Americans seeking to renounce their American citizenship, according to the Washington Post (WaPo). The Post writes, “U.S. government data suggest that a record number of Americans are seeking to give up citizenship this year. But disruptions to consular services around the world have made it nearly impossible for some Americans to stop being American.” Peter Spiro, a Temple University expert on dual citizenship law, told the Post, “The hurdles have never been higher.” Half a dozen individuals seeking to renounce their citizenship told the Post about their struggles. As the Post notes, “closed bank accounts, canceled loans and disrupted lives” are among the possible consequences facing those who are unable to renounce their citizenship in a timely manner. A State Department spokesperson, speaking on background, pointed to cutbacks in consular services “to protect our customers, our workforce and public health worldwide,” adding that the Department was engaged in a phased resumption of such services.

Bonus Read: “When New York’s Strand Bookstores Asked for Help, 25,000 Online Orders Flooded In,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

2020 New America New Arizona Fellow Dr. Daniela Lamas writes on how doctors are dreading the coronavirus third wave (NYT). Watch Dr. Lamas’ conversation with other experts at New America’s Future Security Forum (New America).

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer writes on the alleged militia plot to kidnap her (Atlantic).

Jahd Khalil examines the impact of the pandemic on meatpacking plant workers (Atlantic).

The Washington Post presents a three part documentary on America’s failed response to the pandemic (WaPo).

Melinda D. Anderson explores how virtual learning is helping Black parents monitor racism and bigotry in their children's’ schools (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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