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Asia in Review

No. 21, May/2020, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s AiR issue. 

We hope you all stay healthy as in many countries around the world life slowly returns to normal. 

With greetings from the AiR team,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Hardening stance against Hong Kong as National People’s Congress kicks off 

(dql) Delayed for two months because of Covid-19, last week China’s 2020 meetings of National People’s Congress (NPC), along with those of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), kicked off with the opening state-of-the-country address, in official Communist wording ‘work report’, on Friday delivered by Premier Li Keqiang.

Besides highlighting the government’s (and the Communist Party leadership’s) successes in 2019, Li focused on the government’s plans for reviving the country’s economy, including 500 billion USD in infrastructure bonds and monetary easing. Breaking with Communist planning habits, Li announced that the government for the first time in decades will not set an annual for economic growth bowing to the uncertainties in the wake of the pandemic. [CNN] [Bloomberg] [CTGN, for the work report 2020]

In an earlier move prior to the opening of the NPC, the government last Thursday submitted to the NPC for deliberation and approval a draft of the so-called “Hong Kong National Security Law”, which bans acts of "treason, secession, sedition and subversion" in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and allows mainland agencies to operate in the city as needed. The legislative step was echoed by the announcement in the work report that Beijing “will establish sound legal systems and enforcement mechanisms for safeguarding national security in the two special administrative regions, and see that the governments of the two regions fulfill their constitutional responsibilities.”

The move which bypasses Hong Kong’s legislative procedure has prompted a protest of thousands of people accusing Beijing of using that law to lever out Hong Kong’s autonomy. International condemnation followed quickly, too, with than 230 parliamentarians and policymakers from 26 countries across the world expressing in a joint statement grave concerns over the bill and calling it “a comprehensive assault on the city’s autonomy, rule of law, and fundamental freedoms,’ and warning that “[t]he integrity of one-country, two-systems hangs by a thread.” [The Guardian] [South China Morning Post] [Reuters] [Hong Kong Watch]

In response, Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi defended the bill assuring that it  “targets a very narrow category of acts that seriously jeopardize national security and has no impact on Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy, the rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents or the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors in Hong Kong,” concluding that it “ will protect the basic principle of ‘one country, two systems’.” Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie, meanwhile, Lam announced her government’s full support of the law. [Ministry of Foreign Affiars, China] [Time]

For an interesting assessment of the Hong Kong National Security Law and its consequences for democracy and autonomy in Hong Kong, see Brian C. H. Fong at [The Diplomat] who describes Beijing’s move as “dropping a nuclear bomb” on Hong Kong which will not only harm the city’s legal and political system and business, but eventually also the interests of the Chinese Communist Party itself.

China/Hong Kong: Former IPCC advisor accuses city’s police of using disproportionate force against protesters

(dql) In response to the report on police force behavior during protests released earlier this month by Hong Kong’s Independent Police Complaints Council (IPCC) which basically exonerates the police from charges of excessive brutality in handling the protests [AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3], a former member of the international expert panel advising the IPCC presented counter statement accusing the police of using force in disproportionate way at “practically every” anti-government protest from mid-June last year on. [South China Morning Post]

For another critical account of the IPCC report see Wilson Leung and Brian Dooley at [Hong Kong Free Press] who argue that the report is “an apologia for the police” and “fails even nominally to demonstrate independence.”

Taiwan: President Tsai is sworn in for second term

(dql/ef) On May 20, President Tsai Ing-wen was sworn in for a second term after winning a landslide in the presidential election in January. In her inaugural address, she focused on domestic issues including sustaining economic growth in the face of the fallout of the pandemic, the establishment of a constitutional amendment committee to enhance consensus-building on constitutional reforms pertaining to state institutions and democracy as well as the creation of a National Human Rights Commission scheduled for August.

With regards to China, Tsai reiterated her readiness for dialogue with China but reasserted her ‘Taiwan independent and equal’ stance by saying that she “will not accept the Beijing authorities’ use of ‘one country, two systems’ to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo,” adding that she hope that “the leader on the other side of the Strait will […] work with us to jointly stabilize the long-term development of cross-strait relations.” [Focus Taiwan 1: full text of inaugural speech]

Meanwhile, Tsai was criticized for her composition of the Cabinet in which only two out of 42 members of the new cabinet are women, marking the largest relative gender disparity in 30 years. At the same time women make up 41.59% of the member of the Legislative Yuan. [Focus Taiwan 2]

Taiwan: ‘Necessary assistance’ promised to Hong Kong citizens

(ef) In light of China’s proposal to enact security legislation that is widely seen as posing a serious threat to Hong Kong’s freedom and judicial independence, President Tsai Ing-wen promised to provide Hong Kong with ‘necessary assistance’. However, for security reasons, she said that the administration would consider invoking Article 60 of the Laws and Regulations Regarding Hong Kong and Macao Affairs (LRRHM). Article 60 LRRHM sets out that the LRRHM – which stipulates special rights for Hong Kong and Macao citizens – can be suspended, in whole or in part, if there is a change in the situation of Hong Kong or Macao that would endanger the Taiwan Area. [Focus Taiwan 1]

Hong Kong citizen living in Taiwan are concerned that the suspension pursuant to Article 60 LRRHM could affect their residency status. [Focus Taiwan 2] All three opposition parties proposed an amendment to the LRRHM instead. The proposed amendments would make it easier for Hong Kong’s citizens to seek political asylum, should the situation in Hong Kong get worse. Especially Article 18 LRRHM should be amended in order to provide clearer guidelines for prospective immigrants. [Focus Taiwan 1]

Currently, Article 18 LRRHM stipulates that those citizens of Hong Kong and Macao whose safety and liberty are immediately threatened for political reasons shall receive necessary assistance from Taiwan. In the first four months of 2020, the number of immigrants from Hong Kong to Taiwan has increased by 150%. This is viewed as correlated to the increase of violent protests in Hong Kong. [Deutsche Welle] [Japan Times]

Japan: High-ranking prosecutor resigns over breach of Covid-19 rules

(dql) In a political blow to Prime Minister Abe, Hiromu Kurokawa, the chief of the Tokyo High Public Prosecutors Office, resigned from his post after confirming reports about him playing mahjong for money while violating Covid-19 social distancing guidelines. 

Kurokawa, widely believed to be close to Abe, has been at the centre of an outcry over a government bill that raises the retirement age for prosecutors to 65 from 63 and allows the cabinet to defer the retirement age of senior prosecutors for an additional three years. Kurokawa was this year allowed to stay in his post although he reached the retirement age of 63, leading to speculations that the government's reform was aimed to allow him to succeed Prosecutor General Nobuo Inada, who is expected to retire in July. [Mainichi] [Asahi]

Bowing to public pressure, the Abe administration decide to shelve the bill. [AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]

South Korea: Main opposition party with new leader

(dql) Following a first failed attempt in April [AiR No. 18, May/2020, 1], the main opposition United Future Party (UFP) last week has a taken a first step to embark on the reform the party which suffered a heavy defeat in the general election in April [AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3].

Ending weeks of internal strife, Kim Chong-in, a veteran economist and politician, has accepted to lead an emergency committee until the parliamentary by-elections in April next year. His election and tenure are subject to final endorsement at the national delegates' meeting this week following which he is expected to form a nine-member emergency leadership. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times]

South Korea: Bills to reinstall Truth and Reconciliation Commission and to combat online sex crimes approved

(dql/yo) Last week South Korea’s National Assembly approved a bill which paves the way for reviving the Truth and Reconciliation Commission to reopen and investigate cases of state-committed human rights violations which occurred in the period of time ranging from the Japanese colonial rule (1910-45) until the country's authoritarian regimes as late as the 1980s. Initially installed in 2006, the independent commission was dissolved in 2010. [Yonhap]

In another move, the parliament approved a bill which requires service providers to remove illegal pornographic materials and block access to them. The legislative move comes shortly after an public outcry over the circulation of illegal sexual content via various internet platforms involving  more than  100 people, among them 26 underage girls, forced to perform degrading sex acts. [Korea Herald 1]

The alleged 24 years old mastermind of this sexual exploitation ring was exposed to the public. Police authorities decided to reveal his full name, age and face as a response to public demand, their right to know and in order to counter similar crimes. [Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: LGBT community fears Covid-19 discrimination

(yo) The new rise of cases in South Korea put a certain minority group into the spotlight after 130 new cases were traced to a man identified as a member of Seoul’s LGBTQ community. Recent infections were traced to a sauna in Gangnam which was revealed to have been frequented by those of the LGBT community, which was enough to spark criticism against these people.

Although the Health Ministry urged them to get tested and promised protection of private information, many members of the community are avoiding getting tested due to fears of being singled out and suffering increased discrimination and harassment. [The Indian Express]

Mongolia: A new type of candidates in upcoming parliamentary election

(dql) In less than four weeks, Mongolia will hold parliamentary election in which 670 candidates will race for 76 seats. Bulgan Batdorj and Julian Dierkes at [The Diplomat] provide insights into the diversity of the candidates and argue that while new candidates might not win in the election they might contribute to “nudg[ing] political discourse in the direction of concrete policy debates that have been lacking in previous elections” because they establish a new kind of relationship with the parties and the people. 

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Arrest of anti-CAA activists

(lf) Two women were arrested this weekend for participation in a sit-in before the start of the eventually deadly riots against the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA) at the end of last year. The two women arrested are founders of the student organisation Pinjira Tod, which aims to reclaim public space for women. They face serious criminal charges including attempted murder.

Since the coronavirus lockdown in India in March, several activists have been arrested. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been accused of using the pandemic to quieten regime critics who voiced their disagreement against the CAA. Critics see the CAA as highly discriminatory and anti-Muslim. [BBC] [Indian Express]

India: Critique against PM over Gujarat and economic status

(lf) The opposition has voiced critique against Prime Minister Modi and India's Home Minister, over the situation in their home state Gujarat previously often praised for its “Gujarat Model”. [Indian Express] The oppositional Congress described the situation in Gujarat as a complete mismanagement of the pandemic with practices of profiteering and attempts to hide scams. The High Court has asked for a report from the regional government on the management of the crisis [National Herald India]. 

Additionally, the opposition has raised concerns about the country’s economic situation in the absence of any plan from the government on how to ease the impact of the economic situation due to the pandemic. [National Herald India 2]

Pakistan: Political party critical of BRI banned for alleged terrorist links 

(ls) Pakistan's interior ministry earlier this month banned Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz-Arisar (JSQM-A), a political party based in the southern province of Sindh, along with two militant groups in the same province for alleged terrorist links. The party was well-known for criticizing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a BRI project, the list of outlawed groups has been expanded to include ethnic and sectarian groups from the southwestern province of Balochistan and the northern region of Gilgit Baltistan that could pose threats to Chinese investment in the country. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Bangladesh: Cyclone Amphan kills dozens, destroys homes in India, Bangladesh

(yo) Cyclone Amphan, a powerful cyclone that just struck India and Bangladesh, has killed dozens, destroyed thousands of homes and left millions without power. The UN office in Bangladesh estimates that about 10 million people were impacted, with 500,000 people left homeless. 5 million do not have power and authorities expect to lose at least $1bn due to alleviating the disaster. The coastal villages heavily relied on shrimp farms and other forms of aquaculture, but most croplands and fisheries were also torn apart. 

Bangladesh’s junior minister for disaster management says there are 2.4 million people and more than half a million livestocks being kept in shelters while different interest groups and authorities carry out relief efforts. The mass evacuations were organized beforehand, but Covid-19 toughened the evacuation process due to fears of the pandemic spreading through crowded shelters. Authorities supplied these spaces with masks and sanitizers, but maintaining physical distancing for families that have been packed into several buildings will remain a challenge for the time being. [Aljazeera]

UN Secretary General commended the Indian and Bangladesh governments for their effective preparation of the disaster and relief effort. At the time of writing, 25 have been reported to have died in Bangladesh and 70 in India. Some Rohingya refugee camps were impacted as well and a couple hundred refugees were also evacuated along with other victims. The Bangladesh government replaced 2 million people before the cyclone hit, to more than 12,000 cyclone shelters that had been provided with Covid-19 prevention equipment including masks, sanitizers, soap, and handwashing facilities. [UN News] 

Bangladesh: Rising fears of coronavirus infections in Rohingya refugee camps

(ls) In Bangladesh's refugee camps, about 15,000 Rohingya refugees have been put under coronavirus quarantine. Health experts have long warned that the virus could lead to mass infections in the cramped camps, housing almost one million Rohingya who fled from Myanmar. In early April, authorities already imposed a complete lockdown on Cox's Bazar district, which has a population of about 3.4 million people, including the refugees. [Straits Times]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Singapore: Death sentence via Zoom call

(jk) A Malaysian man convicted of drug-trafficking has been sentenced to death in Singapore via a Zoom video-call. While the court hearings in the case including presentation of legal arguments were already complete, the Zoom call was used by the judge to deliver the sentence. The decision to proceed in this way was made due to Singapore's ongoing "circuit breaker" measures amid the Covid-19 pandemic, but human rights groups - in addition to general opposition to the death penalty - raised the question whether such "rush" to hand down the sentence was appropriate. This is the first such case in Asia, and the second one globally after a man in Nigeria was sentenced to death remotely recently in a murder case. [LA Times] [The Guardian]

Thailand: Data Protection law postponed by a year 

(jk) Thailand, after approving the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) in 2019, was meant to enforce provisions relating to the collection, use, and disclosure of personal data by May 27 this year. Serious sanctions were foreseen for non-compliance, including fines in the millions of Baht as well as imprisonment.  

Last week, with just over a week to go until the intended implementation, authorities  announced that they will postpone the implementation of the law by a year, until May 31 2021. According to the Cabinet, the decision was taken in order to "give the public and private sectors more time to implement data protection measures required by the law, and ease their financial burdens caused by the COVID-19 crisis." [Khaosod]

Thailand: Quiet anniversary - six years since the Coup 

(jk) On 22 May 2014, now PM General (ret.) Prayuth Chan-O-Cha led a military coup d’etat to assume absolute power in the country as the Head of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) in a professed effort to “return peace and happiness to the people of Thailand”. Six years later, he is leading the country as Prime Minister due to the results of the first elections after the coup in 2019. For a very brief summary of the immediate lead-up to the Coup, see this short [Thisrupt] video. 

On the day in 2020, small rallies were held in Bangkok to protest the events of six years prior and make demands to reduce army budgets. Two protesters were arrested, with police citing the emergency law  in place to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. [Khaosod 1] [Khaosod 2] [Prachatai]

The group "Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR)" used the occasion to  launch a report on Thailand’s human rights situation since the coup which notes that “the network of powerful political actors established under the NCPO regime has remained intact as they underwent a successful power inheritance,” and highlights in particular ongoing Human Rights violations such as violations of freedom of expression and freedom of association. More details on the report can be found at [Prachatai English]. 

Another story related to this "power inheritance" of some high ranking military personnel this week uncovered that the armed forces commander-in-chief, the commanders-in-chief of the army, navy, and air force, the police chief and the defence permanent secretary (who all automatically became Senators under a provision in the 2017 Constitution) have the worst records when it comes to showing up in the Senate for voting. Out of 145 votes called by the Senate, the six missed between 99 and 144. [Thai Enquirer][Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Former deputy prime minister under Thaksin plans to form new political party

(jk) Veteran politician Chaturon Chaisang, former Deputy PM and minister under both Shinawatra governments, is looking to establish a new party removed from the influence of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and his Pheua Thai. He said he will introduce key members of his new party next month and complete formal registration later this year. [Bangkok Post] [Khaosod]

Myanmar submits first report on Rohingya to International Court of Justice 

(jk) Myanmar has submitted a first report to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) after the court in The Hague indicated that it is plausible that genocide occurred and ruled in January to impose measures on Myanmar, demanding the government to take action to prevent future acts of genocide against the Rohingya Muslim community. The Court also ordered the government to take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence, and to submit a report to the Court on all measures taken within four months, and then every six months, until a final decision on the case is rendered by the Court. [Asia in Review No. 4, January/2020][International Court of Justice]

Myanmar has vowed to carry out its own investigations, saying international justice mechanisms violate its sovereignty. While some observers see issuing the first report after four month as a positive step signalling Myanmar's compliance, Rohingya groups say the ICJ's orders are being ignored and the military is continuing to commit atrocities against them. [Al Jazeera]

Myanmar: News editor jailed for two years over report on coronavirus death

(jk) A Myanmar news editor has been jailed for two years after his online news agency reported on an alleged coronavirus death in Karen State that turned out to be false. His arrest two weeks ago was followed by an unusually swift conviction in court last week where he was sentenced under section 505(b) of the penal code to two years in jail. [The Straits Times]

Penal Code Sections 505(a) and 505(b), regarding circulating statements that are "likely to cause" fear, alarm or induce offences against the state public order, amongst other things, are vaguely worded and used widely to stifle dissenting voices.

Myanmar: Large amounts of illicit drugs and liquid fentanyl seized 

(jk) Narcotics police have seized a large amount of the synthetically produced opioid fentanyl, alongside other drugs, in Myanmar's Shan State. According to the UNODC, the seizure provides evidence that the opioid is being produced and moved in the area (Southeast Asia's "Golden Triangle") in extremely large quantities and it is quickly becoming a hot-spot for fentanyl in particular. 

The seizure led to the confiscation of staggering amounts of opioids, including close to 4000 liters of methyl fentanyl, over 17 tons of methamphetamine tablets, over 500 kilograms crystal methamphetamine, 292 kilograms of heroin and over 600 kilograms of opium, morphine and ketamine. [The Associated Press] 

For a highly interesting and investigative long read from the coal face and the middle of the Golden Triangle, see [GQ Magazine]. 

Philippines: New study confirms hot spot for Online Child Sexual Exploitation and worrying increase 

(jk) A US based think tank - International Justice Mission (IJM) - released a new study last week, stating that Philippine cases of online child sexual exploitation have increased sharply in recent years. Exploitation often happens with the parents' agreement. The report found that over "three years, the estimated prevalence rate of internet-based child sexual exploitation in the Philippines more than tripled". [IJM] [full report]

During an online launch of the report, a US State official pointed out that the "global shutdown with the COVID-19 pandemic seems to only be increasing these phenomena”. [ABC News]

Indonesia: Army deployed to enforce Indonesia's virus restrictions

(jk) Indonesia deployed "hundreds of thousands of soldiers and police" across several provinces this week to enforce rules on virus containment, such as wearing masks and safe distancing. The forces were deployed after reports surfaced too many people were not adhering to the rules, especially over the weekend celebrating Eid - the end of the Islamic fasting month. [Japan Times]

Indonesia: New Navy and Air Force Chiefs of Staff

(jk) President Joko Widodo has inaugurated Admiral Yudo Margono and Air Chief Marshal Fadjar Prasetyo as the new chiefs of staff of the Navy and Air Force last week. [Jakarta Post] Adm. Yudo most recently led Navy patrols during a standoff with Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels in the North Natuna Sea [Asia in Review No. 1, January/2020, 1]. 

Indonesia: Indonesia could face baby boom amid limited access to contraception

(yo) Due to limited birth control under conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia faces a potential baby boom. The National Population and Family Planning Board reported that 10% of Indonesia’s reproductive couples found access to contraceptives difficult, and that one month without contraceptives of these individuals could lead to 420,000 unexpected pregnancies. Unfortunately, not only people are hesitant about visiting health clinics because of fears they would be exposed to Covid-19, many clinics are currently not open; and those that continue to function receive limited patients. Although government health workers are visiting to supply contraceptives, family planning services, and personal protective equipment, the potential baby boom creates some concern in the world’s fourth most-populous country. [Straits Times]

Indonesia: Extremist charities thriving 

(jk) With the Indonesian government enforcing anti-terrorism laws and increasing arrests under terror-related charges, extremist charities seemingly proliferate in the country. Their purpose often includes support for the families of incarcerated or killed members of terrorist organisations and expose them and their network to extremist thoughts and activities. In Indonesia, the "so-called Islamic State (IS) informal charities" thrive due to demand, failure of efficient government deradicalization programs, as well as a lack of laws regulating local charities and loopholes in existing anti-terror financing laws. [East Asia Forum]

Vietnam plans to abolish household registration books

(jk) The Ministry of Public Security is planning to abolish the paper-based version of household registration and will be using people's ID numbers to register citizens electronically, creating an online database for all citizens with data shared across government agencies. Among the roadblocks to achieve the ambitious goal by December this year is the fact that currently only about one-fifth of Vietnamese have a personal ID number with about 80 million left to be issued. [Nhan Dan]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Tensions continue on high level

(dql/ef) Several developments in the past week have further worsened already strained Sino-US relations. 

Only weeks after the US Senate approved a pro-Taiwan bill [AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2], a US-Taiwanese arms deal was approved by US Congress. All in all, eighteen torpedoes that are suitable for submarines and worth 180 million USD were purchased by Taiwan. The US State Department stated that the torpedoes would improve the political stability, military balance, and economic development of the region. [Deutsche Welle] [Focus Taiwan] The PRC expressed firm opposition against the arms sales deal and urged the US to honor its commitment to the One-China-principle. [CGTN]

At the weekend the US government has blacklisted additional 33 Chinese companies and institutions, restricting their access to American technology and other items. The entities are suspect of links to the Chinese military and of being complicit in human rights violations against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. [South China Morning Post] 

Furthermore, statements of US Secretary of State Pompeo have angered China. In a first, he slammed China’s proposed national security law for Hong Kong, arguing that if passed the legislation would be a "death knell" for the autonomy of the city and urging Beijing to “reconsider its disastrous proposal.”

In a second, Pompeo congratulated via Twitter Tsai Ing-wen on her second presidency, hailing “Taiwan’s vibrant democracy” as “inspiration for the region and the world” and concluding that “with Tsai at the helm” the US “partnership with Taiwan will continue to flourish.” [CNN] [Republic World] 

In a third, Pompeo warned that the USA would disconnect from Australia, its key ally in the Asia-Pacific region, if the Belt and Road agreement between state Victoria and China which is in the stage of being finalized would impact telecommunications. [News] For deeper insights into Australia’s difficult position between China as its major trading partner and the USA as its major strategic ally see the debate between John Mearsheimer and Hugh White at [Youtube 1]. 

With regards to another key US ally, namely England, it is interesting to see that General Sir Nick Carter, the British government’s most senior uniformed military adviser, in an interview on security issues openly disavows Pompeo’s accusations against China of covering up that the coronavirus originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. [Youtube 2]  

Cross-strait relations: Beijing sharpens re-unification rhetoric

(dql) In a sign of a hardening stance towards Taiwan, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang – speaking at the National People's Congress two days after Tsai Ing-wen was sworn in her second term as Taiwan’s president – asserted Beijing’s resolute rejection of ‘Taiwan independence’ and its adherence to the ‘one country, two systems’ formula for reunification. Interestingly, different from all previous work reports since 2013, which emphasized ‘China’s peaceful reunification’ the word ‘peaceful’ was omitted this time. [South China Morning Post] [CTGN, for the work report 2020] [State Council, China, for the work report 2019]

Tsai on the other side stated in her inaugural speech that she would be open for dialogue with China, but reasserted her ‘Taiwan independent and equal’ stance and vowed to enhance Taiwan’s development of asymmetrical warfare in the next four years in office. [Focus Taiwan]

Japan calls Taiwan “extreme important partner”

(dql) Amid thawing Sino-Japanese relations, Japan in its annual foreign policy report designated Taiwan as “extreme important partner”, elevating the status as “crucial partner and an important friend” in the previous year. The report also stresses Japan’s support of Taiwan participation in the World Health Organization against resistance from China. 

Taiwan's rise in status reflects a continued improvement of the relations between Tokyo and Taipei over the past years. Besides close economic ties, Taiwan plays an important strategic role for Japan as a bulwark against Chinese maritime ambitions. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Japan-Russia relations: Moscow proposes shelving issue of legal jurisdiction over joint economic activities

(dql) In response to Japan’s renewed claim to ownership of a group of Russian-held islands off Hokkaido [No. 20, May/2020, 3], Russia dismissed Tokyo’s as running counter to the goal of improving relations with Russia and suggested to shelve the stalemated issue of legal jurisdiction over joint economic activities with Japan on disputed islands. 

Moscow's proposal can be seen as a compromise in talks on promotion of joint activities as a confidence-building effort toward resolving the territorial spat. [TASS] [Kyodo News]

South Korea set to build its own close-in weapon system

(dql) South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) announced that South Korea will develop an indigenous close-in weapon system (CIWS) for its warships by 2030 for which a budget of more than 280 million USD has been allocated. The CIWS is designed to detect and destroy short range anti-ship missiles and aircraft that have penetrated outer defenses. Currently, the U.S. CIWS system is in use. [Korea Herald]

North Korea: Kim Jong-un moves to increase North Korea’s nuclear strength

(yo) After a long absence from public view, which had ignited rumors about his health, Kim Jong-un made his first public appearance last week in a meeting with his top military advisors which he convened to outline “policies for increasing nuclear war deterrence and putting the strategic armed forces on a high alert operation”. The promotion of nuclear and missile forces was expected among analysts after Kim announced last December that North Korea would no longer be bounded by a self-imposed moratorium on these arms. [The New York Times]

As a response, the US National Security Advisor Robert O-Brien said North Korea must give up on their nuclear program in order to make progress in economic development and diplomatic matters. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, meanwhile, urged the two states to overcome deadlock and reach a concrete solution. He raised the possibility of relaxing UN sanctions as a potential solution to the stalemate in US-DPRK conversations. He argues this step could ease economic and livelihood difficulties, creating the conditions for an agreement. [NK News]

India–Pakistan I: Tension in Kashmir

(lf/ls) The head of the Pakistani army has warned India that any change to the disputed status of what Pakistan considers Indian-controlled Pakistan will be met with full military force. The army chief cautioned India no to endanger the fragile stability in the South Asia region [Andalou Agency]. The statement came after new anti-India riots in Kashmir [Asia in Review No. 20, May/2020, 3]. 

The status of Kashmir, which is separated into the Indian, Pakistani and Chinese Kashmir has been contested for decades. Since August 2019, Kashmir had been under lockdown after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the removal of the status as special administrative region, which was met with protests [Time, October 2019]. Kashmir experienced one of the longest lockdowns observed, and after initial opening [Time, May 2020], movement had been strongly limited due to the coronavirus. 

Meanwhile, health experts warn that communications blackouts imposed by India’s government as part of an effort to limit political turmoil and armed conflict in Kashmir are making the fight against the coronavirus more difficult. During recent blackouts, doctors and other health professionals were unable to consult with colleagues about coronavirus cases. Kashmir is among the Indian regions the worst hit by Covid-19, with confirmed cases increasing sharply. [Reuters]

India–Pakistan II: Cooperation to fight the locust plague?

(ls) Despite longstanding animosity and recent tensions, India and Pakistan may cooperate on fighting the current locust plague threatening the agricultural sectors of both countries. India has proposed a trilateral response in partnership with Iran. Pakistan has not yet officially responded to the plan. There is already an ongoing wider regional cooperation in place under the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in Southwest Asia (SWAC), which was established in 1964 with Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan as its members. [Voice of America]

In India, small swarms of desert locusts, in the past weeks, have already arrived from Pakistan, moving east into Rajasthan, and reaching Jodhpur. Locust streams could travel over a land corridor passing over Yemen, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and India. Another stream could pass over the Indian Ocean, reaching India and Bangladesh. [The Hindu]

Farmers across Pakistan are already suffering the worst plague of locusts in recent history, which has caused billions of dollars in damage and led to fears of long-term food shortages. The government declared a national emergency earlier this year. The impact could be economically devastating as agriculture accounts for 20% of Pakistan’s GDP and 65% of the population live and work in agricultural areas. [The Guardian]

New episode in China-India border tensions

(ls) The continued tensions at the border between China and India in the Galwan region in the western Himalayas [Asia in Review, No. 19, May/2020, 2] has seen another episode. Last week, the Indian foreign ministry said that Chinese troops had stood in the way of regular Indian patrols along their disputed border. China did not comment on the events directly. [Reuters]

India’s new leadership and counterbalance against China in the WHO?

(ls) India has been able to increase its influence in the World Health Organization (WHO) in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. Harsh Vardhan, India’s minister of health and family welfare, became the chairman of the WHO’s Executive Board last week. India also occupies the positions of external auditor, which oversees the WHO’s spending, and chief scientist. India’s increased engagement in international organizations appears to make the country a potential partner for Western countries seeking to counter China’s growing influence in global fora. A piece in The Diplomat looks at the prospects of India’s potential. [The Diplomat]

Pakistan looks to China for more investments and credits

(ls) Like most countries in the world, Pakistan has seen a sharp drop of commercial activities since the beginning of the global coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Imran Khan is now looking for further investment and credits from China to stimulate the economy. He has prioritized the revival of the construction sector and launched a renewed push for infrastructure projects in the hope they would revitalize associated domestic industries and incentivize new investment in the job-generating manufacturing sector. Several project proposals are currently being finalized as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These include railway, motorway, hydropower and airport projects. Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled to visit Pakistan in July, but this visit has been postponed. [South China Morning Post]

The development can be seen against the backdrop of a report on energy project costs commissioned by PM Khan's government which unveiled significant corruption problems and inflated costs in major projects, many of which belonging to the BRI. [Asia in Review, No. 20, May/2020, 3]

Deterrence in the Pacific: US Navy Sends Submarines to Sea 

(jk) The US Pacific Fleet Submarine Force announced that "all of its forward-deployed subs were simultaneously conducting "contingency response operations" at sea in the Western Pacific". [Military.com]

The openly announced deployment of the submarines, as well as the uptick in activities in and around the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait [e.g. The Drive] are clear signals of tensions that are continuing to increase and another sign that the US is slowly refocusing its deterrence strategy amid Chinese naval activity. 

South China Sea: Philippine Navy makes historic ship docking on Thitu island

(jk) For the first time, a Philippine Navy vessel has docked on the Philippine-occupied Thitu island, the largest of the Spratly Islands in the West Philippine Sea. The island is home to Filipino soldiers and a small fishing community.

The Philippines have long been trying to upgrade its facilities on the island, including repair work on the harbour, a beaching ramp and the island's runway, but Chinese presence in the area has made progress difficult, especially since late 2018. [Manila Bulletin] 

According to satellite imagery analysed by [AMTI], Chinese Martitime Milita has maintained "an almost constant militia presence around Thitu Island" since then. The landing shows the Philippines have eventually completed much of the upgrading work despite Chinese vessels trying to hamper the progress. Since 2012, China has several reclaimed islands it now uses as military bases in the West Philippine Sea and its navy, coast guard, and militias maintain a widespread presence in the area.

US-Philippines defense relations 

(jk) About two weeks after the announcement by the US Department of Defense clearing the Philippines to buy six attack helicopters form the weapons manufacturing arm of US companies Boeing or Bell respectively [AIR Asia in Review No. 18, May/2020, 1], the Philippines' Defense Secretary stated that both companies’ offers exceed Manila's budget and that they would have to look elsewhere for the purchase. [ABS-CBN]

However, an alternative deal for helicopters struck with Turkey at the end of 2018 has come under increased pressure with the US sanctioning Turkey over its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile system which led to US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). To deliver the helicopters, Turkey relies on parts it receives from the US which are hard to obtain under sanctions and therefore, it cannot guarantee the delivery at this time. [AIN Online]

Looking ahead, the Philippines may try to negotiate with the American suppliers the price down closer to Manila's budget, potentially reducing the weaponry and services that would come with the deal. 

[Human Rights Watch] has voiced its strong concern about the potential deal, however, considering the Philippine military's poor record of accountability, its "culture of impunity" and ongoing human rights abuses. It calls on the US Senate to delay or stop the deal. 

In the meantime, according to the Philippine’s Navy chief, the US Navy may return to its former base at Subic Bay under a commercial deal. An "American equity firm and an Australian shipbuilder [(Austal)] expressed keen interest in taking over the Subic shipyard from a bankrupt South Korean company". A Chinese company is also interested in taking over the shipyard, but at this stage it is not yet clear who will secure the deal. There are also concerns about the recently cancelled Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, although Philippine officials have "assured Australian and American investors that the commercial deal would not be affected". Subic Bay used to be a large and strategically important US naval facilities but was closed in 1992 when the Philippine Senate decided to terminate the Military Bases Agreement of 1947. [One News]

Laos on the brink of debt crisis, China ready to step in and expand influence

(jn/jk) Credit Rating Agency Fitch has downgraded its outlook of Laos to negative, even as the long-term default rating is maintained as “B-“. This assessment is reflective of the economic and financial-market effects of the Covid-19 pandemic that have exacerbated the countries’ external financial risks, namely its forthcoming external debt maturities and its low foreign exchange reserves. Outstanding external debt for this year is said to amount to $900 million, and to $1 billion annually from 2021-2023, standing against low foreign exchange reserves of just $1 billion (and a nominal GDP of $20 billion).

About 86% of public debt is held by external creditors in foreign currency, most notably by  China, accounting for half of that sum. Fitch has also revised its originally forecasted GDP-growth of 5.5% to just 0.5% for this year. 

Of the economic activity resuming after a pandemic-induced lockdown, work at the China-Laos railway (AiR No. 19, May/2020, 2) is the most important factor, even as this project comes with a price tag of more than $800 million for Vientiane for which China has made available a low interest loan. A milestone has been achieved by Chinese engineers last week by completing the drilling of the China-Laos Railway Friendship Tunnel, running through the Laos-China border in the country's north. [Xinhua] 

China’s economic reach further extends to Laos’ energy supply system, for which a subsidiary of the largest Chinese state-owned power producer will erect a 684-megawatt dam for $2 billion at the upper Mekong. Scheduled to be operational by 2028, the dam is envisaged to generate energy for Thailand which so far has not shown any need, but it is certain to impact the downstream of the river as well as local livelihoods, food-security and the environment. Severe droughts are already exacerbated by 11 dams on the Chinese part of the river, leading to record lows in water levels as found in a recent study. [Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI)]

The Chinese cash flow for development projects in Laos is accompanied by an influx of thousands of Chinese skilled workers who are necessary to compensate for the lack of a comparable workforce in Laos. They, too, are an indicator of China’s increasing dominance in the country, while other top investors like Thailand and Vietnam are themselves preoccupied with keeping their economies afloat. Laos’ economic and political dependence would have grown anyway given its novel international train connection and China’s strategic economic commitment, but the economic marks left by the pandemic will help accelerate this trend. [Asia Times] [Fitch Ratings] [Bangkok Post]

Vietnam to vote on EU trade deal as it seeks to reposition itself in post Covid-19-economy

(jn) The National Assembly is scheduled to pass the European Union Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EUVFTA) on Thursday, paving the way for unimpeded economic exchange between the markets of Vietnam and the EU while also establishing new labor and environmental standards for Vietnamese goods destined for the EU. Besides dropping virtually all tariffs, the trade agreement requires Vietnam to follow up with multiple ambitious reforms in its labor, environmental and investment laws. The deal comes at a convenient time for Vietnam as it seeks to jump-start its economy and position itself as an attractive harbor of foreign investment after it has successfully contained the outbreak of Covid-19 at home (AiR No. 17, April/2020, 4). [VoA]

However, Vietnam is still far from following China as the next workshop of the global economy, even as major powers like the US are seeking to “decouple” their economies at least in part from China to decrease their dependence. This is mostly owing to the much deeper economic resources and capabilities of China which Vietnam will not be able to make up even in the long-term: Its GDP (2018) is 55 times smaller, it has a fifteen times smaller manufacturing workforce and its biggest ports can only process a fraction of goods in comparison to China. In domestic terms, Vietnam ranks at the bottom of the list of countries’ GDP per capita, whereas China boasts one of the largest and fastest growing consumer markets. Increased trade with, and investment from, the US would also present a catch-22, namely a growing trade surplus for Vietnam which, however, is running counter to President Trump and his public crusade against trade deficits. [Asia Times]

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