Coronavirus Daily Brief - July 8, 2020, Brief Issue 74

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July 8, 2020 - Brief Issue 74

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Comprehensive Analysis of CDC Data Finds Black and Latino Americans Are Far More Likely to Face Coronavirus Infection and COVID-19 Death (Health & Science)

WHO Expects COVID-19 Deaths to Rise in the Coming Weeks, Despite Current Decline in Mortality; WHO Acknowledges Increasing Evidence of Airborne Coronavirus Transmission (Health & Science)

IHME Model Predicts Over 208,000 American Deaths by November that Could be Cut by 22% if Americans Wore Face Masks; 31 States See Increasing Rate of Sars-Cov-2 Cases, Five See Decline; Southern States Prepare for Further Closures (Health & Science)

“Operation Warp Speed” Awards $2 Billion: $1.6 Billion to Novavax for Vaccine Candidate and $450 Million to Regeneron for Potential Antibody Cocktail; Moderna’s Tensions with Government Scientists Delay Clinical Trial, Reuters Reports (Health & Science)

U.S. PPE Supply Is Running Low (Health & Science)

Brazil’s President Tests Positive for Coronavirus (Around the World)

Canadian PM Trudeau Won’t Cross U.S. Border for Washington Summit (Around the World)

Sweden’s Coronavirus Experiment Isn’t Working Out Like They Thought It Would (Around the World)

Japanese Household Spending Down 16.2% (Around the World)

Madagascar Reimposes Lockdown in Capital, Cases Surge (Around the World)

U.S. Provides Notification it Will Withdraw from WHO; Withdrawal Won’t Take Place Until July 2021; Biden Pledges He Would Reverse Withdrawal (U.S. Government & Politics)

Public Health Organizations Criticize Trump for Politicized Response to Coronavirus (U.S. Government & Politics)

Americans Trust Their Governors More than Trump on Coronavirus (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York City Unemployment Worst Since the Great Depression (U.S. Economy)

Banks to Receive Billions of Dollars in Fees from PPP Lending (U.S. Economy)

Ivy League Expected to Cancel Fall Sports Season (U.S. Society)

Texas State Fair Cancelled (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

As of Wednesday morning, there have been 2,996,098 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 131,480 people have died (Johns Hopkins). On Tuesday, the United States hit a new record for the daily increase in cases of almost 60,000 (WSJ). Around 936,476 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 36,878,106 tests. Worldwide, there have now been 11,846,595 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 544,536 deaths. At least 6,467,428 people have recovered from the virus.

Comprehensive Analysis of CDC Data Finds Black and Latino Americans Are Far More Likely to Face Coronavirus Infection and COVID-19 Death

A Sunday New York Times analysis looked at racial disparities as a result of the coronavirus and found that “Black and Latino people have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus in a widespread manner that spans the country, throughout hundreds of counties in urban, suburban and rural areas, and across all age groups.” According to the analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, Black and Latino Americans are almost twice as likely to die as a result of COVID-19 as white Americans. According to Kansas City, Missouri Mayor Quinton Lucas, “Systemic racism doesn’t just evidence itself in the criminal justice system” adding, “It’s something that we’re seeing taking lives in not just urban America, but rural America, and all types of parts where, frankly, people deserve an equal opportunity to live — to get health care, to get testing, to get tracing.” In the Times analysis, of the 249 American counties they tracked that had at least 5,000 Black residents, “the infection rate for African-American residents is higher than the rate for white residents in all but 14 of those counties.” And, in 206 American counties with 5,000 Latino residents or more, at least 178 of them had higher infection rates for Latinos than white residents. More than 25 percent of Latino Americans who have died from COVID-19 were younger than 60-years-old. As for white Americans who died from COVID-19, only six percent were younger than 60-years-old. As we’ve noted in previous briefs, information about race has not been readily accessible for many coronavirus cases across the country. Some medical centers were not noting race when collecting patient demographics, and the CDC says that they ask “state and local health agencies to collect detailed information about every person who tests positive, but that it cannot force local officials to do so,” reports the Times. According to Harvard University’s FXB Center for Health and Human Rights director Mary Bassett, the focus on preexisting conditions that dominates the conversation in specific demographic groups, “makes me angry, because this really is about who still has to leave their home to work, who has to leave a crowded apartment, get on crowded transport, and go to a crowded workplace, and we just haven’t acknowledged that those of us who have the privilege of continuing to work from our homes aren’t facing those risks” adding, “Many of us also have problems with obesity and diabetes, but we’re not getting exposed, so we’re not getting sick.” Bonus Read: “Quadriplegic man’s death from covid-19 spotlights questions of disability, race and family,” (WaPo).

WHO Expects COVID-19 Deaths to Rise in the Coming Weeks, Despite Current Decline in Mortality; WHO Acknowledges Increasing Evidence of Airborne Coronavirus Transmission

During a press conference on Tuesday, World Health Organization’s Emergencies Program Director Mike Ryan said global coronavirus cases surged in June, even though the mortality rate decreased. WHO officials said it shouldn’t be surprising for the mortality rate to start to increase again as coronavirus cases continue to steadily rise worldwide. As CNBC points out, “WHO officials warn that there’s a lag between rising cases and increasing deaths” because it can take several weeks for someone to die from severe COVID-19 complications. During the press conference, WHO officials expressed concern regarding increasing cases across Latin America and North America (but not Canada). Ryan said of the increase in global cases, “If you imagine that somewhere in April and May we were dealing with 100,000 cases a day, today we’re dealing with 200,000 cases a day, and that is not purely a result of testing,” but he is optimistic about newer COVID-19 treatments that have been discovered, such as dexamethasone. In a previous brief we noted that research from the United Kingdom found that dexamethasone is the first drug “shown to reduce deaths from the coronavirus… In the trial, it cut deaths by about one-third in patients who were on ventilators because of coronavirus infection,” reports Nature. According to WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “The leveling of the number of deaths globally is because of some countries [have contained the virus], but in many countries it’s on the rise.”

The WHO on Tuesday said that it recognizes “evidence emerging” that the coronavirus can be transmitted by airborne aerosolized particles (Reuters, NYT). As we noted in yesterday’s brief, an open letter by 239 scientists from 32 countries that will be published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases states that the WHO should acknowledge “the role of airborne spread of Covid-19 and the need for governments to implement control measures,” reports the Guardian. Further, in a report by CNN, the letter reads, “Most public health organizations, including the World Health Organization, do not recognize airborne transmission except for aerosol-generating procedures performed in healthcare settings. Hand washing and social distancing are appropriate, but in our view, insufficient to provide protection from virus-carrying respiratory microdroplets released into the air by infected people.” In response, the WHO technical lead for infection prevention and control Benedetta Allegranzi said the evidence exists about airborne transmission, but is not definitive, reports Reuters. Allegranzi said, “...The possibility of airborne transmission in public settings - especially in very specific conditions, crowded, closed, poorly ventilated settings that have been described, cannot be ruled out” adding, “However, the evidence needs to be gathered and interpreted, and we continue to support this.”

According to the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) coronavirus cases model, 208,255 Americans could die from COVID-19 by November 1. However, there is a catch. If Americans choose to wear masks in public across the country, that mortality count could reduce by 22 percent, reports Forbes. Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island are the only states with a declining infection rate this week, according to data by Johns Hopkins. As of Tuesday morning, at least 31 states have an increasing rate of coronavirus cases, “ an increase of at least 10% -- over the last seven days,” reports CNN. On Monday, Texas and Idaho set daily records of 9,181 and 423, respectively, according to a New York Times coronavirus database. White House Coronavirus Task Force Member Anthony Fauci said on Monday that the country is “still knee deep in the first wave” of the pandemic, noting that the U.S. “never came down to baseline” before the recent surge (WaPo). Further, Fauci highlighted during a Facebook Live news conference with Senator Doug Jones (D-AL), “It’s a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death” adding, “There’s so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus. Don’t get yourself into false complacency” (WaPo). This continuous rise in cases has led some health experts to believe that contact tracing may be a lost cause, reports CNN. According to Baylor College of Medicine dean of tropical medicine Peter Hotez, “The cases are rising so rapidly, that we cannot even do contact tracing anymore. I don't see how it's possible to even do that."

Despite widespread criticism from health experts, the White House has maintained its support of President Trump’s claim over the weekend that 99 percent of coronavirus cases are “totally harmless” (NYT). However, the Trump campaign is encouraging people to wear masks at an upcoming rally in New Hampshire, signaling a shift around mask protocols (NYT). Virus prevention policies continue to shift in states such as Texas, West Virginia, Georgia, and Florida. And now, CNN reports that at least 35 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico have all implemented some form of mask wearing protocol. Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s mask mandate, issued last week, is being challenged by county sheriffs, saying they will not enforce the requirement because it “strips law enforcement” of the tools needed to carry out the order (KXAN). Austin, Texas is considering imposing a 35-day shutdown if conditions worsen, requiring approval from the Governor’s office before going into effect (KXAN). Texas hospitalization rates have tripled since the end of May (NYT). West Virginia issued an order on Monday requiring groups of nine and over to wear masks in public, while Georgia Tech reversed a previous order and will now require all people on its campus to wear a mask (NYT, WaPo). Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran issued an emergency order on Monday requiring public schools to reopen in the fall for in-person classes, despite the state reporting over 7,300 new cases on Tuesday (CNN).

The few states experiencing decreasing rates of infection remain cautious, as many still do not meet the testing, isolation, and hospital capacity recommendations to reopen (Vox). And, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut added Delaware, Kansas, and Oklahoma to their list of states that require a two-week quarantine if their residents travel to the tristate area (ABC7NY). Bonus Read: “Poll Finds Record Number Of Americans Are Wearing Masks,” (Forbes).

“Operation Warp Speed,” the federal government’s COVID-19 vaccine program, awarded $2 billion to two companies to develop and manufacture a potential vaccine and a potential antibody therapy against COVID-19 (Politico, WSJ). Both contracts are funded through the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Department of Defense.

Maryland-based Novavax will receive $1.6 billion, the largest contract yet under Operation Warp Speed, to support a 30,000 participant Phase III clinical trial and large-scale manufacturing of its vaccine candidate (Bloomberg, CNN, NYT). In exchange, the government will own 100 million doses of its vaccine candidate, enough to vaccinate 50 million people if two doses are required, for potential delivery by February (STAT). If the candidate is approved for use, the government plans to provide its doses at no cost (HHS). Novavax expects that its vaccine will require two doses, but it will also gather data on the effectiveness of a single dose. “Data will determine all of those things and we don’t have those data yet. What we do have are data that show you get a very significant bump on the second dose,” said Stanley Erck, the company’s president and CEO. As we noted last month, Novavax’s candidate elicited high levels of antibodies in animal studies (BioCentury), with the “bump” apparently being an eightfold increase in neutralizing antibody levels after the second dose, according to a Novavax release (Novavax, BiorXiv). Their 130-person Phase I clinical trial in Australia should yield results later this month (Forbes, NYT). Novavax plans to start a Phase II trial a couple of weeks after getting the Phase 1 data, and a 30,000-participant Phase III trial is slated for the third quarter of the year. Novavax also has a $60 million contract with the Defense Department for the delivery of 10 million doses for American troops (NYT) and $388 million pledged by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). CEPI’s funding requires “right of first refusal of vaccines to the Covax facility,” established “to secure Covid-19 vaccines for non-producing countries,” writes STAT, but Erck believes Novavax can meet that commitment with Czech-based Praha Vaccines, which Novavax acquired with CEPI funding and expects to deliver over 1 billion doses a year starting in 2021, as we covered in an earlier brief (Reuters, GEN). Novavax also plans to produce its vaccine in India and Asia: “I think that takes care of a lot of the issues around potential border closings, so that vaccine will be available for the globe,” Erck told STAT.

Novavax’s candidate is protein-based, an approach that has yielded successful vaccines against other pathogens, and several “vaccine experts said Novavax’s vaccine would help diversify the federal portfolio,” which has concentrated on speedy but unproven technologies (NYT). “This is a sort of diversification from other approaches, which makes a certain amount of sense,” said John P. Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City. “You don’t want all of your eggs in one basket.”

Based in Tarrytown, New York, Regeneron will receive a $450 million contract to produce 70,000 to 300,000 treatment doses for its antibody cocktail, a combination of two antibodies that may help prevent as well as treat COVID-19, now in Phase II and III clinical trials (CNBC, Fox, WSJ). If the antibody therapy is used preventatively rather than as a treatment, lower doses would be needed and the amount would cover an estimated 420,000 to 1.3 million preventative doses, Regeneron says. Initial doses would be ready as early as the end of summer and completed this fall, HHS said in a statement. Manufacturing will take place while clinical trials are still underway to test the drug’s effectiveness, and, if it is approved, the government would make the doses available at no cost. As we noted in Monday’s brief, Regeneron has started a 2,000 participant Phase III trial to test the antibody cocktail’s ability to prevent infection and a 2,900-participant, multi-country Phase II/III trial of the therapy’s ability to treat COVID-19 (CNN). This is Operation Warp Speed’s first investment in a potential therapeutic, but probably not its last (BioCentury).

Massachusetts-based Moderna secured $483 million in funding from BARDA and planned to start a 30,000-participant Phase III trial, but tensions between Moderna and government scientists over trial protocols and processes have “contributed to a delay of more than two weeks in launching the trial of the Moderna’s mRNA vaccine candidate, now expected in late July,” writes Reuters in an exclusive. The relatively young biotech firm has never produced an approved vaccine or run a large trial, but has resisted experts’ advice, including their “insistence on close monitoring of trial participants who might contract COVID-19 for changes in oxygen levels that could signal dangerous complications.” Moderna “could be on schedule if they were more cooperative,” one of the sources told Reuters.

Other Warp Speed-funded vaccine candidates include Pfizer and BioNTech, who plan to start a 30,000-participant combined Phase II and III trial later this month; AstraZeneca and Oxford University will start their U.S. Phase III trial in August, and have Phase III trials ongoing in Brazil and South Africa; and Johnson & Johnson plan to start a Phase I and II trial this month (NYT). Bonus Reads: “How a Covid-19 Vaccine Could Cost Americans Dearly,” (NYT); “Elegant but unproven, RNA experiments leap to the front in coronavirus vaccine race. Will they work?” (WaPo); and “Fauci doesn't expect a coronavirus vaccine federal mandate in the US,” (CNN).

U.S. PPE Supply Is Running Low

According to the Associated Press, “The personal protective gear that was in dangerously short supply during the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis in the U.S. is running low again as the virus resumes its rapid spread and the number of hospitalized patients climbs.” Several healthcare facilities across the United States have indicated a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE), a worrisome fact as cases sharply rise across the Western and Southern states of the country. According to National Nurses United president Deborah Burger, “We’re five months into this and there are still shortages of gowns, hair covers, shoe covers, masks, N95 masks” adding, “They’re being doled out, and we’re still being told to reuse them.” You’ll likely recall that early in the pandemic when cases were starting to surge in the first coronavirus epicenter, New York, there was a great deal of competition for supplies between states, hospitals, and even countries for supplies. According to George Washington University associate professor of emergency medicine Aisha Terry, rural areas and non-academic health facilities have less access to PPE. Terry believes “overall, production, distribution and access has improved…But the fear is that we will become complacent” and widespread availability of PPE will not be realistic. The AP notes that last week, DuPage County health department (near Chicago) sent a letter to Congress stating that their hospitals “are reusing protective gear ‘in ways that were not originally intended and are probably less safe than the optimal use of PPE.’” In addition, DuPage County has fewer than a week and a half’s worth of some supplies, and a new surge of infections would “make the supply go much faster.” What’s more, during a Congressional hearing last week, Rear Admiral John Polowczyk, who heads coronavirus supply management told Congress that “more than one-fourth of the states have less than a 30-day supply” of PPE, reports AP. Bonus Read: “Face masks, gloves and a new breed of plastic pollution,” (Al Jazeera).

Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities Continue to be Major Sites for Coronavirus Cases

As we noted in a previous brief, over 40 percent of the almost 130,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States are tied to nursing homes and long-term care facilities (USA Today), and one in five facilities has reported at least one COVID-19 death (WaPo). According to a new profile in the Atlantic, “state and federal officials seem to be doing little to protect the elderly from further devastation,” as coronavirus cases ravage states in the West and South of the United States. The Atlantic notes that it’s quite possible more long-term care facilities will be the cause of many more COVID-19 deaths because these facilities “are chronically short-staffed and, even prior to the pandemic, were doing a poor job of controlling infections.” A United States Government Accountability Office report found that between 2013-2017, 82 percent (or 13,299) of long-term care facilities and nursing homes surveyed were “cited for infection prevention and control deficiencies.” Furthermore, when the coronavirus crisis began, nursing homes didn’t have stockpiles of personal protective equipment (PPE) and were forced into bidding wars with other competitors for PPE. According to a Kaiser Health News report in June, “a fifth of the nation’s nursing homes — 3,213 out of more than 15,000 — reported during the last two weeks of May that they had less than a week’s supply of masks, gowns, gloves, eye protectors or hand sanitizer, according to federal records. Of those, 946 reported they had at least one confirmed COVID infection since the pandemic began.” In June, the Washington Post wrote that over 250 nursing homes went without surgical masks and another 800 facilities were within days of depleting their supply.

Several states’ nursing homes began taking infected coronavirus patients from hospitals, writes the Atlantic. The Kaiser Family Foundation reported that 77 percent of Minnesota’s COVID-19 deaths were the result of nursing home patients or staff becoming infected with the virus. According to LeadingAge elderly advocacy group president Katie Smith Sloan, “Hospitals were running out of space,” adding, “And so they were transferring people to nursing homes. And our nursing homes were saying, ‘You can’t give us people who have COVID unless you give us PPE.’” New Jersey is hiring a private company, Mathematica Policy Research, at $450,000 for “a comprehensive review of why so many people died in the state’s long-term care facilities from COVID-19,” with an interim report expected by August 15 and a final report at the end of September (Hartford Courant).The New Jersey government failed to follow through on suggestions by long-term care providers to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in nursing homes, says Paul Liistro, chief executive officer of Manchester Manor and Vernon Manor, two New Jersey senior living facilities. Liistro notes New Jersey failed to get “COVID-only nursing homes up and running quickly.” At least six New Jersey facilities have had “more than 40 deaths” each, writes the Hartford Courant. At the height of the pandemic, New York hospitals “released more than 6,300 recovering coronavirus patients into nursing homes,” Fox News reports. According to New York State Health Facilities Association and the New York State Center for Assisted Living head Stephen Hanse, “Bringing in even one instance of COVID to a nursing home is in no one’s best interest.” On May 10, New York reversed the directive for hospitals to discharge patients from hospitals and move them into nursing homes, but Virginia still permits hospitals to “release patients to nursing homes without COVID-19 testing as long as the patient isn’t displaying any symptoms of the disease, despite repeated pleas from industry groups over the past two months,” reports NBC12.

As we noted in a previous brief, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) did not require nursing homes to count any deaths or infections before May; assisted living facilities did not have to submit any information since they’re not regulated by CMS (WSJ). Over 60 percent of Maryland’s COVID-19 cases stemmed from long-term care facilities, reports NBC Washington, however, “many of those deaths have vanished from the state’s website, making it look like far fewer homes have had serious outbreaks.” In fact, NBC Washington reports 120 nursing homes and 1,000 deaths were removed from this count. Former Kansas Governor Mark Parkinson, who now heads the American Health Care Association said, “I’m very concerned that the explosion of cases in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California will lead to a dramatic increase in cases in nursing homes,” (Atlantic). Texas continues to report “defective shipments of PPE from the federal government,” and “out of 10,322 nursing homes in [Arizona, Florida, and Texas], 1,166, or about 11 percent, currently don’t have a one-week supply of N95 masks.” Bonus Read: “The ‘Covid Cocktail’: Inside a Pa. nursing home that gave some veterans hydroxychloroquine even without covid-19 testing,” (WaPo).

EPA Approves Two Lysol Products to Kill Novel Coronavirus on Hard Nonporous Surfaces

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved two Lysol products that are able to effectively kill the coronavirus on hard, nonporous surfaces, reports CNN. The two products are Lysol Disinfectant Spray and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist, and can properly disinfect after two minutes of contact. The EPA has a list of 431 products that are “strong enough to ward off ‘harder-to-kill’ viruses than the novel coronavirus,” reports CNN, but these two Lysol products are the first specifically tested and proven effective against SARS-CoV-2, specifically.

Bonus Read: “The pandemic has exacerbated an under-the-radar health disparity: period poverty,” (STAT).

Around the World

Americas

Brazil’s President Tests Positive for Coronavirus

After months of downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic and actively discouraging protective measures in his country, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro announced on Tuesday that he had tested positive for coronavirus (NYT). Bolsonaro began feeling ill after he and some of his ministers attended a Fourth of July luncheon at the residence of the American ambassador to Brazil, Todd Chapman, where none of the attendees wore masks or practiced social distancing. The president told reporters on Tuesday that he was feeling “very well” and credited the drug hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, although studies have shown that the drug does not ward off the coronavirus (Reuters). Bolosonaro did not apologize for his handling of the pandemic so far and attributed his own diagnosis to his leadership style as he is constantly among the people. “I am the president, I have to be on the front lines of the fight,” he said, comparing the virus to “rain, which is going to get to you.” Brazil now has more than 1.6 million confirmed cases and more than 65,000 deaths, second only to the United States.

Canadian PM Trudeau Won’t Cross U.S. Border for Washington Summit

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed on Monday that he would not be traveling to Washington, D.C. to celebrate the official start of the new trade deal between Canada, the United States, and Mexico due to scheduling conflicts (NYT). The summit was to take place today, but Trudeau said he had a “long-planned” session in Parliament on Wednesday that he had to attend instead. However, most foreign policy experts agree that Trudeau’s real reason for avoiding the visit is his desire to model good behavior in following virus-spreading prevention recommendations, which currently include wearing a mask and avoiding travel. A former advisor and current professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa, Roland Paris, theorized: “I don’t think Trudeau has any interest in being drawn into American debate on mask-wearing and appropriate health precautions during an epidemic.”

Toronto Residents Must Wear Masks Until Late September

A law requiring that everyone in Toronto wear face masks or coverings in enclosed spaces took effect on Tuesday (City of Toronto). Toronto is Canada’s largest city and has about 15,000 confirmed cases. While masks or face coverings have been mandatory on its public transit system since July 2, the new law expands the obligation to all public spaces and will be in effect until at least late September.

Europe

Sweden’s Coronavirus Experiment Isn’t Working Out Like They Thought It Would

Since the pandemic began, Sweden has attracted global attention for its unique approach—taking almost no preventative measures like a nationwide lockdown or mandatory social distancing, and instead allowing residents to carry on with their daily lives as normal. Officials argued that their residents would behave responsibly and the economy would avoid injury. But it has become clear that Sweden’s gamble isn’t paying off. As the New York Times writes: “More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died, but Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.” Further, the economy has not been unaffected—Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to shrink by 4.5 percent this year, down from the expected gain of 1.3 percent that was predicted before the pandemic began. The unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 percent in March. These numbers are similar to Denmark’s, where the economy is also expected to shrink this year, by 4.1 percent, and where joblessness has increased to 5.6 percent in May. It seems then, that Sweden has suffered a much higher death rate while also failing to safeguard any economic gains.

Brits Turn to Berry Picking

Because of the travel restrictions in place in the United Kingdom, many of the 70,000 to 90,000 seasonal workers who usually travel from Eastern Europe to pick fruit and vegetable crops during the summer have not made the trip (NYT). The labor shortage prompted the government to start a campaign, called “Pick for Britain” in early April to try to attract British workers. Now, many Britons who recently found themselves out of work have tried their hand at farm labor. But farmers say that English labor is more expensive since it takes longer to train new hires and they also require additional, ongoing training, unlike many of the seasonal workers who have been doing these types of jobs for years.

Asia

Japanese Household Spending Down 16.2%

Japan’s household spending has dropped by 16.2 percent in May from a year earlier, according to government figures (BBC). The data shows that spending on hotels, transport, and eating out decreased while spending on meat, alcohol, and face masks increased. The outlook for household spending for future months remains weak; job losses are still expected and economists believe the recovery will be slow as consumers are reluctant to spend money in light of an uncertain future just after the nationwide state of emergency was lifted.

Middle East

UAE Plans to Test 20% of its Population

The United Arab Emirates announced on Monday that it is aiming to test two million people for the coronavirus over the next two months, which would mean 1 of every 5 of the country’s 10 million people would be tested (WaPo). The National, an Abu Dhabi-based newspaper, reported Tuesday that 3.5 million tests had been conducted in the country since the outbreak began. The UAE has experienced a surge in new infections recently and Dubai reopened on Tuesday for tourists. On Tuesday, the UAE reported 532 new infections, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 52,600 with 326 deaths.

Africa

Madagascar Reimposes Lockdown in Capital, Cases Surge

Madagascar has reimposed a lockdown in its central region, including the capital city of Antananarivo, as cases have surged in the city (CNN). Schools and universities have been closed, churches will be shuttered, and all nonessential travel will be prohibited until July 20. Gatherings of more than 50 people have also been banned. The island nation has a population of around 27 million people and recorded 209 new cases in the capital city on Saturday, bringing the country’s total number of cases to 2,941.

Bonus Read: “Infographic: How South Africa Reached 200,000 Coronavirus Cases,” (Al Jazeera).

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Coronavirus Fraudsters Keep Prosecutors Busy,” (Pew Stateline).

U.S. Provides Notification it Will Withdraw from WHO; Withdrawal Won’t Take Place Until July 2021; Biden Pledges He Would Reverse Withdrawal

On July 6, the U.S. State Department provided formal notification to the World Health Organization (WHO) that it will withdraw from the organization (WSJ, Axios, ProPublica, STAT). A spokesman for President Trump stated, “The President has been clear that the WHO needs to get its act together.” Trump has been critical of the WHO, accusing it of being overly influenced by China. In May, he called the organization, “a puppet of China.” The U.S. exit, which will end a 72-year long relationship between the U.S. and the WHO will not take effect until July 2021. Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden said on Tuesday that the U.S. would not withdraw if he were to become president.

Public Health Organizations Criticize Trump for Politicized Response to Coronavirus

Over 350 public health organizations published a letter on July 1st urging the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to break from Trump’s rhetoric and support efforts by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to promote an evidence-based approach to the coronavirus. The letter calls for an end to the partisan interference in the country’s coronavirus response as well as recognition of public health experts that have been on the frontlines. Addressing HHS Secretary Alex Azar, the groups said: “We must amplify the unfettered voice of CDC, not stifle it.” The letter also warns about the impact of basic health recommendations being seen as political decisions. “The biggest frightening thing to me is that we don’t want this to leave a lasting impression on people that they can’t trust public health” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO of the National Association of County and City Health Officials (Politico).

Americans Trust Their Governors More than Trump on Coronavirus

According to a new NBC/Survey Monkey tracking poll covering June 29 - July 6, Americans trust their governors more than Trump when it comes to handling the pandemic (NBC). The poll found that 43 percent of its respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the virus while 55 percent disapproved. In contrast, 60 percent approved of their governor’s handling of the virus with 37 percent disapproving. In addition, 7 out of 10 respondents said they trusted their governor more than Trump when it came to reopening businesses while only 25 percent said the reverse.

GOP Convention to Feature Daily Coronavirus Testing

The GOP convention to be held in Jacksonville, Florida where it was moved after Republicans expressed concerns that North Carolina’s coronavirus response measures would hamper an in-person convention, will feature daily coronavirus testing of attendees (CNN). In a Monday email memo, Erin Isaac, the spokeswoman for the host committee, wrote, “everyone attending the convention within the perimeter will be tested and temperature checked each day.” Isaac confirmed to CNN that there would be actual testing and not just more simple forms of screening.

Trump Administration Pushes to Reopen Schools

On Tuesday, the Trump administration devoted much of its time to pushing an agenda of reopening schools despite surging coronavirus cases (NPR). President Trump and the First Lady participated in an afternoon roundtable on the issue. In a morning call on background, administration officials posed the question as a matter of local decision stating, “Our goal right now is to work hand in hand with the local jurisdictions now to help let them see the best ways to reopen these schools in a safe way and get back to where we would have really preferred to have been through the spring of this year, which was to have that active educational component available to the students.” But on Monday, Trump tweeted a clearer message: “SCHOOLS MUST OPEN IN THE FALL!!!” As part of Tuesday’s events, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos criticized school districts that resist reopening, saying that they “gave up and didn’t try” (Politico). According to Politico, DeVos specifically singled out Fairfax County, Virginia’s approach for criticism. Alex Azar echoed the president’s comments on Monday, saying, “We must reopen.” The focus on Monday and Tuesday came as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement provided guidance forbidding foreign students from remaining in the country on student visas if they do not have physical classes and as major universities including Harvard announced plans to conduct their courses entirely online, as we covered in Tuesday’s brief.

U.S. Economy

New York City Unemployment Worst Since the Great Depression

Unemployment in New York City reached 18.3 percent in May, the worst since the Great Depression when it hit an estimated 25 percent. The high unemployment comes after the city’s record low rate of 3.4 percent in February of this year. The stagnant economy is especially difficult for Asian, Hispanic, and Black communities, where 1 in 4 people are out of work as opposed to 1 out of every 9 white workers. Prospects for an economic rebound are uncertain, given the city faces $3 billion of debt from borrowing. “It kind of throws you completely off course... I don’t even want to make any plans for next year’’ said New York City resident Veronica Carrero (NYT).

Banks to Receive Billions of Dollars in Fees from PPP Lending

The federal government will pay between $14.3 billion and $24.6 billion in total fees to banks involved in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). JPMorgan and Bank of America administered the most loans, and could receive between $1.5 billion and $2.6 billion for facilitating the loans to small businesses. While the PPP program delivered $520 billion in funds to businesses struggling during the pandemic, the total amount of fees given back to the banks might surpass the total lent through PPP. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and others have said they plan to donate any net profits to “support small businesses and the communities and nonprofits we serve,” according to a Bank of America spokesperson (WSJ). Disclosure: New America received a loan as part of the Paycheck Protection Program.

Two Largest Rooftop Solar Companies Merge as Industry Struggles Amid Coronavirus

Sunrun announced its acquisition of Vivint Solar on Monday, marking the merger of the two largest home-solar companies in the industry. Sunrun values Vivint Solar at $1.6 billion, and expects the purchase to cut operating costs and enhance sales strategies. The solar industry has been particularly hard hit during the pandemic, losing an estimated 72,000 jobs according to Solar Energy Industries Association. Companies face difficulties interacting with customers, making in-person sales, and permitting solar installations, which solar expert Ravi Manghani says is “setting the industry back by two or three years” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Ivy League Expected to Cancel Fall Sports Season

Many expect the Ivy League to announce that it has canceled the fall sports season on Wednesday. Dartmouth, Princeton, and Harvard have already announced they will only open partially to students in the fall, signaling the likely cancellation of fall athletics. Alternatives to the upcoming sports season include moving competitions to the spring of 2021, or canceling the season entirely. A canceled fall season does not pose a large financial or reputational loss to the Ivy League, but would be a letdown for senior players and could set a precedent for other universities (WSJ). Bonus Read: “Opening night Major League Soccer match is postponed due to positive Covid-19 tests,” (CNN).

Texas State Fair Cancelled

On Tuesday, the 2020 Texas State Fair was cancelled due to concerns over the coronavirus (Texas Tribune). In a statement, the fair stated: “After extensive consideration of the current landscape related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the health and safety of all fairgoers, staff, business partners, and overall community, the State Fair of Texas Board of Directors has voted to cancel the 2020 State Fair of Texas.” Gina Norris, the fair’s board chair, commented, “In the current climate of COVID-19, there is no feasible way for the Fair to put proper precautions in place while maintaining the Fair environment you know and love. While we cannot predict what the COVID-19 pandemic will look like in September, the recent surge in positive cases is troubling for all of North Texas.” It is the first time the fair has been cancelled since World War II. Bonus Read: “Disney World's reopening: Where things stand as Florida Covid-19 cases spike,” (CNN).

Bonus Reads: “The retired inventor of N95 masks is back at work, mostly for free, to fight covid-19,” (WaPo); and “I’m a U.S. Citizen, Where in the World Can I Go?,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Ed Yong warns that public health experts are at risk of burnout as the virus is poised for a resurgence (Atlantic).

Mike Davis writes a critical profile of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s role in the pandemic response (Nation).

Paul Krugman argues that leadership failure rather than culture is to blame for America’s coronavirus failures (NYT).

In Lighter News

11-Year-Old American Sews 500 Blankets and 1,100 Face Masks for Those in Need in the U.S. and Around the World

Lucy Blaylock, an 11-year-old from the United States, sewed 500 blankets for children and 1,100 face masks for children and adults across the U.S. and in 14 countries. She told Good Morning America of her sewn blankets and masks, “I always hope they’ll know someone care about them. It feels good to know that I’m helping all these kids feel loved.”

Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk and David Sterman and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Narisara Murray, with Brianna Kablack and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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