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Trump to Nominate Economic Aide Stephen Miran to Fed Board; Bank of Mexico Slows Pace of Easing

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

President Trump intends to nominate Stephen Miran, the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors on a short-term basis. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he still expects the Fed to cut rates just once this year, despite growing signs that the labor market is losing steam. And the Bank of Mexico on Thursday opted to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point after four consecutive half-point reductions.

 

Top News

Trump Will Nominate Economic Adviser Stephen Miran to Fed Vacancy

Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News

President Trump said he would nominate Stephen Miran, the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors on a short-term basis.

Trump tapped Miran in December to lead the CEA, and he was confirmed by the Senate to his current post in March.

  • Miran Argued for Deep Fed Reforms
 

This Fed President Still Expects Just One Rate Cut This Year

“My outlook today is still one cut for the year,” Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on a call with more than 200 Florida-based executives. While last week’s jobs report was a “surprise” particularly because of its steep revisions, he said, it hasn’t yet shifted his view of the economy. (Barron’s)

 

Bank of Mexico Slows Pace of Interest-Rate Cuts

The board of governors of the Bank of Mexico voted 4-1 to lower the overnight interest-rate target to 7.75% from 8%. Deputy Gov. Jonathan Heath voted to leave the rate unchanged. The smaller rate cut was widely expected.

 

U.S. Economy

A Roundup of Where Things Stand With Trump's Tariffs

President Trump’s tariff policies have taken numerous twists and turns this year. The latest: imposing tariffs on scores of nations starting Aug. 7.

Some countries have already struck deals with the U.S. South Korea, the European Union and Japan have agreed to a 15% tariff on their exports. Separately, Trump said he hiked tariffs on Canada to 35% effective Aug. 1.

  • Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War

Mortgage Rates Tumble to Early April Levels

Mortgage rates slipped for the third-straight week after last Friday’s softer-than-expected report shook up the market. 

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.63%, its lowest level since April, according to Freddie Mac data out Thursday. Last week, rates averaged 6.72%. The levels still remain higher than they were a year ago.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rebounded in June

U.S. wholesale inventories increased in June as firms continued to adjust to President Trump's higher trade tariffs. Inventories at merchant wholesalers rose 0.1% from a month earlier, having slid by 0.3% in May, according to Commerce Department figures published Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected June's inventories to increase by 0.2%. (Dow Jones Newswires)

 

Financial Regulation

Trump Shakes Up Wall Street With Orders on 401(k)s, ‘Debanking’

A pair of executive orders President Trump is expected to sign Thursday shows how he is beginning to reshape the world of banking and high finance—some in ways Wall Street likes, and others it fears.

 

Forward Guidance

Friday (all times ET)

10:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks at Mississippi Delta event

Monday

None scheduled

 

Research

BOE Interest Rate Cut Cycle Likely Close to the End

The Bank of England is likely nearer to ending interest-rate cuts following this week's tight vote, TwentyFour Asset Management's Johnathan Owen says in a note. The BOE's policymakers voted by five members to four in favor of a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut and highlighted concerns about elevated inflation. Markets have reduced their expectations of BOE rate cuts as a result, currently pricing in only a 70% chance of another rate cut this year, down from a 96% chance priced in prior to the rate decision, LSEG data show. — Miriam Mukuru

Bank of Mexico Hints At Several More Interest Rate Cuts

The Bank of Mexico's monetary policy statement points to the possibility of more than one additional interest-rate cut despite improved economic activity and sticky core inflation, Citi economists Julio Ruiz and Felipe Juncal say in a note. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 7.75% as expected. While the bank raised its core inflation forecasts for the third time in a row, "the board seems to be relying on activity weakness and currency appreciation for the disinflationary process to continue," they say. "The forward guidance suggests further rate cuts (plural) are possible, despite the persistence of core inflation." — Anthony Harrup

 

Basis Points

  • U.S. companies can now unload their debt at the lowest rates so far this year, a sign of investors’ growing appetite for risk and seeming confidence in the U.S. economy. (Barron's)
  • Nonfarm business-sector labor productivity grew at a rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the biggest upward swing from one quarter to the next since 2021. (Barron's)
  • Switzerland said it would continue U.S. trade negotiations but doesn't expect quick solutions, after the Trump administration hit it with one of the world's highest tariff rates.
  • Ireland’s factory output fell sharply in June as exports to the U.S. halved, helping to push the economy into contraction after a first-quarter boom.
  • China’s auto sales grew more slowly last month as demand began to cool following Beijing’s efforts to rein in the price war in the world’s largest car market.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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