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April 26, 2021 - Brief Issue 187
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
Research Demonstrates Risk of Long Covid-19 Even After Mild Initial Infection (Health & Science)
European Medicines Agency Says AstraZeneca Shot is Beneficial Across Age Groups (Health & Science)
CDC, FDA End Temporary Pause on J&J Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)
U.K. Researchers Find Just One Vaccine Dose Offers Significant Protection (Health & Science)
India Orders Social Media Companies to Take Down Critical Posts; EU, US Pledge Aid as Virus ‘Swallows’ Country (Around the World)
E.U. Ready to Allow Vaccinated U.S. Tourists This Summer (Around the World)
Fire at Iraq Hospital Kills Covid Patients (Around the World)
White House Plans $1.8 Trillion Family Plan (U.S. Government & Politics)
Western Countries Foresee Economic Growth as They Eye an End to the Pandemic (U.S. Economy)
Amid Pandemic, CEO Pay Still Stratospherically High, Even When Their Companies Are Hit Hard (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 32,077,569 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 572,200 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 427,217,093 tests and administered 215,951,909 vaccine doses, with 42.2% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 28.5% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 147,266,287 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,111,247 deaths. At least 84,979,042 people have recovered from the virus.
Research Demonstrates Risk of Long Covid-19 Even After Mild Initial Infection
A study published Thursday in Nature highlights the prevalence of the long-lasting effects of Covid-19, even in people who weren’t hospitalized (NPR, NYT). Led by Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of research and development service at the VA St. Louis Health Care System, the team analyzed data from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, comparing the health outcomes of over 73,000 Covid-19 survivors who did not require hospitalization with 5 million other VA patients who did not have Covid-19. Six months after infection, the researchers found, those who’d had Covid-19 were 20% more likely to develop a plethora of health issues, including heart disease, anxiety and depression, substance abuse, respiratory issues, pain, and diabetes. These risks were elevated for those who’d had severe cases of Covid-19. The researchers could not say definitively whether these complications stemmed directly from infection, but Al-Aly emphasized that the results were not trivial: "The majority of people will have no problems and no consequences down the road,” he said, “but it is true, though, that a minority of people, even if they have mild disease, they are at higher risk of developing some of the consequences that we described here.” Another recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that two-thirds of Covid-19 patients who had mild initial cases sought out medical care one to six months after being infected, and two-thirds of those patients received a new diagnosis (NYT).
CDC, FDA End Temporary Pause on J&J Covid-19 Vaccine
An independent panel of CDC advisors met Friday to discuss the link between rare blood clots and the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine, voting to end their suggested pause on use of the shot (NYT, NPR, WaPo). The Food and Drug Administration’s top regulator, Peter Marks, said the vaccine could start being administered again as soon as Saturday morning. The CDC panel did not issue any official warnings beyond suggesting that anyone who experiences symptoms of the clotting disorder after getting the J&J shot should see their physician. The advisors clarified that the risk of blood clots is low, but all of the fifteen recorded cases occurred in women, most of whom were between 18 and 49 years old. Dr. Michael Streiff of Johns Hopkins University said doctors should be aware of the side effect, considering it as a possibility if a patient develops clotting and low platelet counts within three weeks of receiving their shot. Doctors should not, officials advised, prescribe heparin, a common anti-clotting drug, because it can exacerbate the side effect linked to J&J. More potential cases of this clotting disorder, including some in men, are under review. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said governors are eager to resume administering the J&J shot, which requires just one dose and is easy to store and transport. Many states are expected to start using it again immediately (NYT). The European Union has also ended its pause on the J&J vaccine, with an accompanying warning about rare blood clots (Scrip). Meanwhile, in the White House, some Biden administration officials are losing faith in the J&J shot following the blood clot-related suspension and several manufacturing issues, including a mixup in a Baltimore factory that ruined 15 million doses (Politico).
European Medicines Agency Says AstraZeneca Shot is Beneficial Across Age Groups
The European Medicines Agency said Friday that the benefits of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine – which, like the J&J shot, has been linked to rare but serious blood clots – outweigh its risks for all sectors of the population, especially older people and those who are at high risk of infection (WaPo). The EMA estimated the average risk of blood clots following the AstraZeneca shot as 1 in 100,000, with a rate twice as high as that in people 20 to 49 years old and half as high in people in their 70s and 80s. European countries will use this information to customize their vaccine rollout strategies; many already restrict use of the AstraZeneca shot to older people. AstraZeneca also announced Thursday that millions of doses of its vaccine shipped from the U.S. to Canada and Mexico were made at the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore responsible for contaminating J&J doses; whether those countries investigated the plant before receiving the doses isn’t known (NYT).
115 Destinations Added to U.S. “Do Not Travel” List As Covid-19 Continues to Spread Worldwide
The U.S. State Department lengthened its “Do Not Travel” list this week due to the “ongoing risks” of the Covid-19 pandemic, adding Level 4 advisories, representing the highest tier of risk, for over 115 countries and territories (NPR). There are now over 150 of these extreme travel advisories in place; most of the countries added recently have a “very high level of Covid-19,” according to the CDC. The U.K., Mexico, Canada, and Germany are now under Tier 4 travel advisory.
Michigan Sees Spike in Hospitalizations of Young People
In Michigan, currently home to the nation’s worst Covid-19 outbreak, an increasing number of young people are being hospitalized (NYT). The Michigan Health and Hospital Association reported that twice as many people in their 30s and 40s are being hospitalized as in the fall. Health experts say this phenomenon has been spurred by the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant, which is spreading among young people, many of whom only just became eligible for the vaccine. Experts also note that younger people are more likely to go out and socialize as coronavirus restrictions loosen in Michigan and elsewhere. “I am putting more patients in their 20s and 30s and 40s on oxygen and on life support than at any other time in this pandemic,” said Detroit emergency room physician Dr. Erin Brennan. Daily case counts are finally starting to decline in Michigan and other hotspots as more adults get their vaccines (STAT).
U.K. Researchers Find Just One Vaccine Dose Offers Significant Protection
Two not-yet-reviewed U.K. studies, run by researchers from the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics, reported that even one dose of the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine significantly reduces the risk of getting infected with Covid-19 (BBC). The first study, based on data from 370,000 U.K. residents, found that three weeks after participants received their first dose, the risk of symptomatic infection fell by 74% and the risk of asymptomatic infection fell by 57%. The second study, of almost 46,000 adults, found evidence of strong antibody responses up to ten weeks after a single dose. Younger adults responded more strongly to just one dose, but adults over 80 had a large increase in antibodies after receiving their second shot, underscoring the value of completing the two-dose regimen for older adults. Still, researchers aren’t quite sure how much antibody levels dictate protection: "We don't yet know exactly how much of an antibody response, and for how long, is needed to protect people against getting Covid-19 in the long term - but over the next year, information from the survey should help us to answer these questions,” said chief investigator Sarah Walker of the University of Oxford.
Health Expert Predicts Wave of Covid-19 Cases This Winter
Public health researcher Ali Mokdad, from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, predicted Thursday at a news briefing that U.S. Covid-19 cases will fall over the summer and surge in the winter (Science News). He said death rates will fall as more people get vaccinated, but depending on mask wearing and social distancing measures, the cold weather could cause a spike in cases as more people gather indoors. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said Covid-19 is “not an eradicable disease,” although if the U.S. achieves herd immunity through vaccinations, the virus could become like a seasonal cold.
Bonus Read: “Could a Souped-Up Version of Existing Covid-19 Tests Be Our Shortcut to Tracking Variants?” (STAT).
Around the World
Asia
India Orders Social Media Companies to Take Down Critical Posts; E.U., U.S. Pledge Aid as Virus ‘Swallows’ Country
On Sunday India’s government ordered Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter to remove dozens of social media posts that were critical of its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The move, which comes as a second wave is overwhelming hospitals across the country, was aimed at roughly 100 posts that included critiques from opposition politicians. The government claimed the posts could incite panic and hinder its response to the pandemic, but the request is just the latest in a deepening conflict between the social media companies and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government over free speech. India’s government has been working to more strictly police what is said online, even as critics say the policies are being used unfairly to silence those who would criticize the government. The companies have complied with the requests for now by making the posts invisible to those accessing the sites from inside India. According to the New York Times, “one of the tweets removed from view was posted by Moloy Ghatak, a labor minister in the opposition-ruled West Bengal state, where Mr. Modi’s party hopes to make big gains in an ongoing election. Mr. Ghatak accused Mr. Modi of “mismanagement” and held him directly responsible for the deaths. His tweet included images of Mr. Modi and his election rallies beside those of the cremations and compared him to Nero, the Roman emperor, for choosing to hold political gatherings and exporting vaccines during a ‘health crisis.’”
On Sunday, the country reported more than 349,691 new infections and 2,767 deaths. It was the fourth consecutive day it set a world record in daily infection statistics, though experts warn that the true numbers are probably much higher. The country now accounts for almost half of all new cases globally. Crematoriums are overwhelmed by the bodies of those who have died from Covid-19 and burial grounds in the capital New Delhi are running out of space. Funeral pyres are burning around the clock in other cities. “The virus is swallowing our city’s people like a monster,” said Mamtesh Sharma, an official at the Bhadbhada Vishram Ghat crematorium in Bhopal (AP).
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced on Sunday that Germany was preparing emergency aid for India, including mobile oxygen generators and other medical equipment. E.U. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen also said the bloc was “pooling resources to respond rapidly to India’s request for assistance” (DW). The U.S. also announced that it will “immediately” send supplies of the raw materials needed to make vaccines as well as Covid-19 tests, ventilators, and protective equipment, according to a statement by the White House on Sunday.
Middle East
Fire at Iraq Hospital Kills Over 80 Covid Patients
At least 82 people were killed and 110 wounded in a fire at a coronavirus hospital ward in Baghdad late Saturday, according to the Interior Ministry (AP). Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi said the blaze at Ibn al-Khatib hospital is under investigation but that has done little to calm the public outcry at the government’s mishandling of the pandemic and the “endemic corruption and mismanagement that has hollowed out the country’s health system” (WaPo). According to the country’s human rights commission said that 28 of the patients killed in the fire had been on life support when the fire overtook the ward. Iraq is averaging 8,000 new cases daily, the highest number of new cases since the beginning of the pandemic.
Europe
E.U. Ready to Allow Vaccinated U.S. Tourists This Summer
After more than a year of banning nonessential travel into the European Union, the bloc’s executive body said in an interview with The New York Times that American tourists who were fully vaccinated would be able to visit over the summer. “The Americans, as far as I can see, use European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said Sunday. “This will enable free movement and the travel to the European Union. “Because one thing is clear: All 27 member states will accept, unconditionally, all those who are vaccinated with vaccines that are approved by E.M.A.,” she added. The agency, the bloc’s drugs regulator, has approved all three vaccines being used in the United States, namely the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson shots. Von der Leyen did not give a timeline on when tourists could begin to travel or offer any additional details, but said rather the resumption of travel would depend “on the epidemiological situation.”
Switzerland Says a Third of Population Has Had Covid-19
The Swiss government said on Sunday that about one-third of the population has been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic. Government scientists found antibodies in about 20% of people tested and now believe another 10% have been infected, according to newspaper NZZ am Sonntag.“Conservatively calculated, around a third of the population has been infected since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Federal Office of Public Health spokeswoman, Simone Buchmann (Bloomberg).
Americas
Canadians Take Taxis Across the Border
U.S. taxi and limousine services are seeing an uptick in business as customers try to enter Canada by land in order to avoid a restriction on international travel that applies only to air traffic. Both Canadian land and air travelers must take a Covid-19 test within three days of departure and again on arrival, but only those flying to Canada must spend three of the mandatory 14-day quarantine period in a hotel. Those seeking to avoid that hotel stay are now flying through U.S. airports into states like New York to cross over the land border. According to Reuters, “a taxi trip across the border can cost around $200 or $250 compared with a three-day hotel stay of more than C$1,200 ($961).” Many Canadians who spend the winters in Florida or other southern states are now returning to their homes in Canada for the summer. Although Canada has imposed strict restrictions on foreigners entering the country since the beginning of the pandemic, Canadians are still allowed to enter.
Costa Rica Hits Record Number of Cases
Costa Rica registered 1,830 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, its highest daily increase since the stat of the pandemic. Health authorities said that space for patients in critical condition is severely limited at public hospitals, with 94% of intensive care unit beds currently occupied. "We are living through the darkest health moment of Costa Rica in modern times," Health Minister Daniel Salas said in a televised address to the nation (Reuters). A nighttime curfew on driving was put into place, but authorities are avoiding imposing any other restrictions in order to prevent the economy from collapsing.
U.S. Government & Politics
White House Plans $1.8 Trillion Family Plan
The White House plans to announce a $1.8 trillion proposal to support families this week (WaPo). The Washington Post reports that the package will be announced before President Biden’s address to a join session of Congress and will include “calls for devoting hundreds of billions of dollars to national child care, prekindergarten, paid family leave and tuition-free community college, among other domestic priorities” which will be paid for via tax hikes. The plan may face greater Republican resistance than the Covid relief bill or the emerging infrastructure proposal.
U.S. Economy
Western Countries Foresee Economic Growth as They Eye an End to the Pandemic
As Western countries begin to foresee an end to the pandemic, hopes are growing for a strong year of economic growth powered in large part by the United States (WSJ). The hoped for growth would follow the worst year since the Great Depression. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. are expected to enjoy quicker consumer-led recoveries as their governments close in on vaccination goals. Data Thursday are expected to show the U.S. growth accelerated in the first quarter as coronavirus-related restrictions eased and vaccination coverage increased.”
Insurance Costs Threaten Florida Housing Boom
As we have covered in prior briefs, the United States is experiencing a boom in home sales. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that in Florida the boom in sales may be running up against a new limit in the form of insurance costs (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Longtime homeowners are getting socked with double-digit rate increases or notices that their policies won’t be renewed. Out-of-state home buyers who have flocked to Florida during the pandemic are experiencing sticker shock. Insurers that are swimming in red ink are cutting back coverage in certain geographic areas to shore up their finances.” The high costs are in part the result of in part the insurance industry having been impacted by the costs of hurricanes in 2017 and 2018 that hit the state. The Journal reports, “Florida is the most expensive state in the U.S. for home insurance. Residents are projected to pay on average $2,380 in premiums this year, a 21% increase over the $1,960 paid in 2018, according to estimates by trade group Insurance Information Institute. By contrast, the average American homeowner is expected to pay $1,297 this year, up 4% from $1,249 in 2018.”
Bonus Read: “Restaurants Serve Up Signing Bonuses, Higher Pay to Win Back Workers,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Amid Pandemic, CEO Pay Still Stratospherically High, Even When Their Companies Are Hit Hard
Despite the pandemic’s economic impact, CEOs are receiving “stratospheric” pay packages even among CEOs of companies that have been hit hard by the pandemic (NYT). The New York Times notes among examples that despite a terrible year in which it planned to lay off 30,000 workers and reported a loss of $12 billion, Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun received $21.1 million in compensation. Norwegian Cruise Line furloughed 20 percent of its staff and lost $4 billion, but its CEO, Frank Del Rio, doubled his pay to $36.4 million. Hilton hotels laid off almost a quarter of its staff as its CEO received $55.9 million in compensation. The Times writes, “The divergent fortunes of C.E.O.s and everyday workers illustrate the sharp divides in a nation on the precipice of an economic boom but still racked by steep income inequality. The stock markets are up and the wealthy are spending freely, but millions are still facing significant hardship. Executives are minting fortunes while laid-off workers line up at food banks.” The disparity has led some CEOs to renounce some of their compensation. David Calhoun, the aforementioned CEO of Boeing, for example, took just $269,231 of the $1.4 million salary he was entitled to, but with stock still took home more than $21 million according to the Times. A Boeing spokesperson told the Times, “Dave obviously gave up a lot.” Similarly, the Times writes, “A Hilton spokesman said the $55.9 million figure reported in the company’s annual filing did not reflect Mr. Nassetta’s actual pay. Because of the pandemic, Hilton restructured several complex stock awards. As a result, Mr. Nassetta’s actual earnings for 2020 will be closer to $20.1 million, a slight decrease from 2019.” The spokesperson stated, “2020 was an anomaly in so many ways.”
Analysis & Arguments
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