Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 16, April/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week’s brief on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers Ireland which celebrates the Proclamation of the Irish Republic in 1916 this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Prominent Hong Kong pro-democracy activists sentenced 

(dql) Hong Kong pro-democracy media tycoon and outspoken critic of Beijing Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 14 months in prison after a court found him guilty of organizing and participating in an unauthorized assembly in summer 2019. Along with Lai eight other veteran democracy activists were sentenced, among them 82-year-old Martin Lee Martin Lee, the "father of democracy" in Hong Kong, and lawyer and former opposition lawmaker Margaret Ng, 73, whose sentences were suspended. Lee and Ng received the Award for Outstanding Contribution by a Legal Practitioner to Human Rights of the International Bar Association shortly after the assembly in question. 

Critics, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, view the verdicts as latest effort of Beijing to crack down on rights and freedoms in the former British colony. [ABC News] [BBC] [Hong Kong Free Press] [Reuters]

China: Confession of first foreigner prosecuted over Hong Kong protest aired

(dql) Chinese state television aired a confession of Chinese-born Belize businessman Lee Henley Hu Xiang, a year after he became the first foreign national prosecuted for providing funding to the Hong Kong protests and sentenced to 11 years in jail. 

Following four Taiwanese citizens, Lee is the fifth person to appear on national TV to confess to national security crimes.

To observers, the broadcast of Lee’s confession signals China’s determination to pursue suspects anywhere in the world that it deems to have harmed its national security. It also comes after the country’s revised Criminal Law took effect on March 1 under which "offering support" to someone deemed a national security threat is now a crime worldwide, and for citizens of any nation. [Radio Free Asia]

China: Feminist online channels shut down

(dql) Douban, a popular Chinese social media platform providing users forums to discuss social issues, closed feminist channels citing content containing “extremism and radical political and ideological thoughts.” Douban added that the closure came in response complaints from users and “related departments,” while referencing to China’s cybersecurity law and other internet regulations.

Many of the targeted channels relates to the so-called “6B4T” notion, a feminist movement which originated in South Korea and promotes the idea of women becoming more empowered by shunning activities seen as centered around or designed to benefit men.

In an immediate response, users created new channels on Douban to reinstate the erased channels, while the hashtag "women stick together" on Weibo, China’s equivalent to Twitter, quickly reached 50 million views. [Quartz] [Reuters]

Japan: Parliament reviews bill to reform immigration law

(dql) Japan’s Lower House is currently reviewing a bill to revise Japan’s strict Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act aimed at solving the issue of long-term detentions of asylum seekers who are facing deportation. Submitted by the government, the bill suggests the establishment of a "supervisory measures" mechanism, under which foreigners who have applied for refugee status or those appealing a decision may be released after paying a maximum deposit 27,500 USD, with supporters, designated by immigration authorities, monitoring their situation and reporting back. 

Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters took to the streets to rally against the bill, criticizing it for providing insufficient protection of asylum seekers, as it allows only two applications for refugee status on the same grounds, fails to set a maximum detention period, and introduces penalties for foreigners who refuse to return to their countries of origin, including up to one year in jail for physically resisting deportation while on an airplane. [Mainichi] [Kyodo News]

North Korea holds birth anniversary celebrations for late state founder

(nm) North Korea held celebrations last week to commemorate Kim Il-sung’s, the country’s late founder, 109th birthday. For the occasion, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited his grandfather’s mausoleum at the Kumsusan Palace of Sun. The birthday, which marks the North’s biggest national holiday and is also referred to as the Day of the Sun, is usually celebrated by large-scale cultural and sports events. Kim had skipped the celebrations last year amid concerns over the Covid-19 pandemic, sparking speculation about his health. [Korea Times]

South Korea: Migrant workers’ period of stay extended amid labour shortages and travel restrictions 

(nm) South Korea’s justice and labour ministries have announced plans to extend the permits of migrant workers and migrant children in South Korea. Migrant workers whose period of staying and working in South Korea is set to expire this year are allowed to extend their stay for one year, an attempt to relieve labour shortages at small businesses, as well as in farming and fishing communities, and in reaction to Covid-19 induced travel restrictions. The special measure will affect about 115,000 non-professional employment and employment visa holders. 

In a separate decision, the justice ministry announced it would issue temporary stay permits to undocumented migrant children who are born and have lived in South Korea for more than 15 years. The policy will run until February 2025. It is limited to children who graduated from elementary school before February 28, 2021, middle or high school students will be granted other visa types. Additionally, the children’s parents will be given temporary stay permits. Approximately, 100-500 children are expected to be subject to the policy. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times]

South Korea celebrates historic pro-democracy April Revolution 

(nm) On Monday, President Moon Jae-in visited a national cemetery in Seoul, paying tribute to the victims of the April 19 Revolution in 1960, to commemorate the historic pro-democracy movement which was led by students protesting vote-rigging in presidential elections. The two-week mass protest left 183 killed and 6,259 wounded in a police crackdown. Moon also urged the nation to “move toward a more mature democracy without stopping, while remembering the great history of democracy on this land.” [Korea Times]

South Korea: Major Cabinet shake-up 

(nm) In a move, widely seen as is aimed at bringing new momentum to the administration of President Moon jae-in after the crushing defeat of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) in both mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan earlier this month, the President announced the nomination of five new ministers and a new prime minister.  The major reshuffle is expected to be the last of his presidency which will terminate next year.

Kim Boo-kyu, a former four-term lawmaker and minister of interior and safety, is nominated to replace Chung Sye-kyun as prime minister. Chung had resigned earlier last week in order to prepare for a presidential bid which could set off a high-stakes race to win the ruling Democratic Party’s (DP) ticket to the presidential election. The 71-year-old has yet to officially declare his bid for presidency. [Korea Herald]

Moon also replaced five ministers, including Land Minister Byeon Chang-heum who has been come under pressure after a land speculation scandal involving civil servants at Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) had become public. Byeon had previously been head of LH. In addition to Byeon, Moon also nominated a new science minister, a new minister of trade, industry and energy, a new minister of employment and labour, as well as a new minister of oceans and fisheries. 

The nominees are yet to be confirmed by the National Assembly. Considering that most of the nominees hold prior bureaucratic experience, the reshuffle is seen by some as a move to ensure greater stability, rather than pushing for reform. [Korea Times]

Taiwan: KMT starts campaign to mobilize voters for its anti-government referendum proposals

(dql) Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) kicked off a series of dozens of events to be held in all of 73 electoral districts this month and in May to promote its two referendum proposals that have been submitted to the Central Election Commission (CEC) for review after the necessary numbers of signatures in the first two steps had been received. If approved by the CEC, the referendum would be held in August.

One of the two proposals opposes the decision of ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government to lift a ban on pork imports containing the controversial leanness-enhancing drug ractopamine, while the second proposal would allow referendums to be held in conjunction with major local elections. The latter proposal aims at reversing an amendment to the Referendum Act passed by the DPP-controlled Legislative Yuan in June 2019 that limits the frequency with which referendums. Critics argued, however, that the amendment was a maneuver of the DPP to prevent referendum questions from threatening its support at the ballot box, especially in the 2020 presidential election. [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Five people killed as police fire tear gas at protesting workers

(lm) At least five people were killed and dozens injured on April 17 after police opened fire on a crowd of workers protesting over unpaid wages and to press demands for a pay raise at a power plant in the southeastern city of Chittagong. Authorities said about 2,000 protesters threw rocks and bricks at police, who responded with gunfire. [The Straits Times]

With 29 power plants being at varying stages of development, Bangladesh has one of the largest coal power pipelines in the world. The $2.4 billion power plant in Chittagong is one of a series of projects that China – which dominates both the EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) and equity investment market in Bangladesh – is pushing to cultivate closer ties with Dhaka. [Al Jazeera]

Bangladesh: Islamist leader arrested after violent protests over Modi visit

(lm) Police on April 18 arrested an influential leader of hardline Islamist group Hefazat-e-Islam that led violent protests against last month’s visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bangladesh. The arrest follows on a stern warning by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who in a speech to parliament earlier this month said her government would not tolerate arson and violence in the name of Islam [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]. [Associated Press]

The Indian prime minister had arrived in Dhaka for a two-day visit on 26 March, Bangladesh’s Independence Day. It also coincided with the birth centenary of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the country’s founder and father of Prime Minister Hasina [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. Critics accuse Modi’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of stoking religious polarization in India and discriminating against minorities, particularly Muslims.

The same day, clashes between protesters and government forces began after weekly prayers in three cities, and at least 17 supporters of Hefazat-e-Islam were killed in separate clashes with police. On March 28, Hefazat-e-Islam called for a nationwide shut down to protest the attacks on those who held rallies against Prime Minister Modi’s visit [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

Maldives: Human Rights Commission launches investigation after terror suspect alleges custodial torture

(lm) The Human Rights Commission of the Maldives (HRCM) has launched an investigation after a detained terror suspect on April 16 alleged custodial torture by law enforcement officers. When HRCM officers visited the detention center on April 16, police said they had used pepper spray on multiple occasions because the suspect – one of eight arrested last year for allegedly plotting an act of terror - had resisted following protocols and showed aggressive behavior while in custody. [raajje]

Maldives: Newly elected mayors, counselors to take oath in mid-May, according to authorities

(lm) The Local Government Authority (LGA) has announced that the recently elected members and presidents of the country’s 200 Local Councils will be sworn into office in mid-May. Before, 982 representatives were elected on April 10 through the Local Council Elections, which were originally scheduled to take place in April of last year but had to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [raajje 1]

For the first time, Women’s Development Committee representatives, who are responsible for upholding women’s rights and increasing their political participation, were also elected through the Local Council elections. For a comprehensive analysis of the importance of the elections for the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), please consider N Sathiya Moorthy’s article for the [Observer Research Foundation].

Meanwhile, the president of the Election Commission (EC) has criticized the country’s major political parties for resorting to “irresponsible” behavior after unidentified people had vandalized the MDP’s headquarters in the capital. [raajje 2]

Pakistan: Radical Islamist party releases 11 police hostages after violent anti-France protests

(lm) Supporters of an outlawed far-right Islamist party on April 19 freed eleven police officers, almost a day after taking them hostage in the eastern city of Lahore amid violent clashes with security forces. Hours before the group’s release, police and paramilitary troops swung batons, fired tear gas and used guns to crack down on demonstrators, killing three Islamists and injuring dozens more. [ABC News] [The Straits Times]

Tensions have been high in Pakistan since authorities arrested the leader of the hardline Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), Saad Rizvi, earlier this month, prompting supporters to hold protests and sit-ins across the country [see AiR No. 15, April/2021, 2]. At least four people have since been killed, hundreds injured and thousands arrested.

Rizvi was arrested a day after he called on the government to honor what he said was a commitment it made in February to his party to expel the French envoy before April 20 over the publication of cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad by a French satirical newspaper. Indeed, when French President Emmanuel Macron backed the magazine, Prime Minister Imran Khan took up a crusade, accusing the French leader of insulting Islam and using an address to the United Nations as an opportunity to lambast the West.

But while the prime minister may have hoped the fight would result in an easy win – placating the ultraconservative quarters at home while being hailed as a defender of Islam abroad – Khan’s grievance only appears to have encouraged Pakistani extremists. Scrambling to keep order, a week after having banned the TLP party under the country’s anti-terrorism laws, the government on April 20 also blocked travel documents and bank accounts of over two hundred key leaders of the organization. [Geo News] South China Morning Post

Pakistan: Cabinet shake-up sees 4th finance minister in two years

(lm) Prime Minister Imran Khan on April 16 appointed Shaukat Tarin as the country’s new Finance Minister – the fourth person to hold the post in the last two years - as part of a shake-up of the government’s economic team.

Tarin, a former banker, held the finance minister’s portfolio between 2009 and 2010 under the previous government led by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), now in opposition to the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of Prime Minister Imran Khan. [Al Jazeera] [Arab News]

Hitherto Finance Minister Hammad Azhar, who received the portfolio less than a month ago, will now look after the Energy Ministry. He was given the additional portfolio of finance and revenue after his predecessor Abdul Hafeez Shaikh was asked to step down last month after he had lost a crucial contest for a Senate seat [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

The shake-up comes just weeks before the annual budget is due, with economists saying the country is likely to record its biggest ever deficit as a result of uncertain government policies aggravated by a third wave of COVID-19 infections. It also comes as the government is gearing up for the implementation of reforms that are part of a $6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. [The Straits Times]

Forced to temper economic growth expectations, Prime Minister Khan announced earlier this month that his government would reach out to the IMF to request a second relief package [see AiR No. 15, April/2021, 2]. The country is also likely to receive another $1 billion in debt suspension in the third phase of the World Bank’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), and is preparing to pitch Eurobonds worth around $2 billion to global investors to shore up foreign reserves [see AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5].

Pakistan: PDM leader extends olive branch to PPP and ANP to rejoin Pakistani opposition alliance

(lm) In an attempt to prevent the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) from disintegrating, PDM chairman Maulana Fazlur Rehman on April 13 extended an olive branch to two former constituent parties, urging them to “reconsider” their decision of quitting the 8-party coalition of opposition parties. 

Speaking after the alliance’s first meeting since the withdrawal of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Awami National Party (ANP), Rehman also said that the PDM would continue its activities even if the two parties do not return to its fold. [Dawn]

Earlier this month, the then 11-party coalition of opposition parties had showed first signs of disintegration when the PPP and the ANP parted their ways with the PDM over the issuance of show-cause notice for supporting the candidature of former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani as Leader of the Opposition in the Senate. [AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1]

Sri Lanka: Supreme Court to hear petitions on contentious Colombo Port City bill

(lm) Starting next week, a 5-member bench of the Supreme Court will be hearing petitions that have been filed against a proposed piece of legislation on the China-backed Colombo Port City (CPC) project that was tabled in Parliament last week. [The Hindu] [The New Indian Express]

A $1.4 billion joint venture project between a Chinese state-owned enterprise and the Sri Lankan government, the CPC includes the creation of high-end real estate through offshore land reclamation. Colombo regularly discredits concerns that the CPC, alongside with other Chinese-backed infrastructure projects, is part of Beijing’s alleged “dept-trap diplomacy”.

On April 8, the ruling Rajapaksa administration presented a bill to Parliament to pave the way for the establishment of a high-powered five-to-seven-member Colombo Port City Economic Commission (CPCEC). Appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, members of the Commission would be entrusted with the administration, regulation and control of all matters connected with businesses and other operations in and from the CPC.

Since last week, several petitions have been filed by opposition parties, civil society groups and labor unions against the proposed piece of legislation, alleging that the project violated the country's sovereignty, the Constitution and labor rights. The petitioners further argue that the bill must be passed by a two-thirds majority in Parliament and by a referendum if it is to become law. 

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Disputes with the opposition

(nd) Following opposition leader Kem Sokha’s New Year Call for Unity, the president of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) clashed with the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), with a spokesman emphasizing the country was already unified under the rule of long-serving prime minister Hun Sen. The CNRP was dissolved in 2017, leading to an absolute win for CCP in the general election.

Meanwhile, acting CNRP president Sam Rainsy and Prime Minister Hun Sen clashed as well over Rainsy’s call to trust Chinese-made vaccinations, which are highly distrusted among Cambodians. Earlier, Rainsy compared the quality of the different vaccinations, but insisted that even a less effective vaccination is better than none at all. By April 12, 1,099,811 Cambodians had been vaccinated with the Chinese-made Sinopharm or Sinovac vaccines or the India-based UK AstraZeneca vaccine. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Further measures against the pandemic

(nd) A recent spike in Covid-19 cases has put Cambodia “on the brink of death,” as Premier Hun Sen warned, imposing lockdowns in the capital Phnom Penh and a nearby city. Violators were threatened with jail term. Between the cities, police blocked roads and demanded ID cards. February saw a cluster of cases among the Chinese expatriate community. Since hospitals have reached their limits, schools and event locations were turned into treatment centers. [Asia Times]

Over the weekend, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen sealed off the capital Phnom Penh and nearby Takhmao city in Kandal province for two weeks, following most residents’ defiance of his prior lockdown order. Residents reported on low food supplies and the inability to stay home due to the need to work. Since the latest outbreak on February 20, at least 30 people who criticized the government’s response were arrested on charges of incitement. Much of the criticism is related to the efficacy of Chinese-made vaccination, which enjoy less public trust. Last week, Hun Sen said all civil servants have to be inoculated with the vaccine or will be fired. [AiR No. 15, April/2021, 2] Human Rights Groups criticize that people are neither informed enough about the vaccinations nor about the laws criminalizing criticism of the pandemic management. [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: 31 arrested over church attack; women recruited more frequently

(nd) Following an attack on a church on Palm Sunday in Makassar, police have arrested at least 31 suspected members of terror group Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). A newly-wed couple bombed the church, and were killed instantly, hurting 20. They were believed to be JAD members. The group was declared a terror organization with ties to the Islamic State and disbanded in 2018. The US made this move in 2017 already. Currently, JAD is the most active organization in Indonesia, at least since 2018. [Jakarta Globe] During a raid on Thursday police shot and killed a man allegedly linked to the church attack. The man ignored warnings by the police and attacked them while they tried to arrest him. [Benar News]

Meanwhile, recent attacks by female militants highlighted efforts by extremist groups to target women with online propaganda via social media. During the pandemic, people generally spend more time online, which applies all the more to housewives. Often targeting migrant workers deemed to earn money, militants would start dating them and establish a relationship in order to brainwash them. Additionally, women are still considered “less of a threat” than men and are therefore scrutinized less closely. [South China Morning Post]

Indonesia: Another cabinet reshuffle

(nd) After the House of Representatives approved President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo’s plan to merge the Research and Technology Ministry with Education Ministry and create the Investment Ministry, another cabinet reshuffle is expected. It was approved on April 8 and marks the second reshuffle since Jokowi’s second term in 2019, replacing six ministers and adding five deputy ministers. The President is able to appoint ministers, but needs the House’s approval to change the setup to the ministries.

According to the decision, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), a governmental body established in 2019 and tasked with coordinating research initiatives, would become an autonomous body directly under the President. Analysts argue, the merger is an opportunity for Jokowi to appease Muhammadiyah, the second-largest Islamic organization in Indonesia after Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). Education ministerial seats are usually reserved for Muhammadiyah and religious affairs minister seats for NU, due to their large number of followers and political influence. [Jakarta Globe]

Indonesia: Constitutional Court to disqualify elected district head

(nd) The Constitutional Court disqualified elected district head in East Nusa Tenggara, Orient Riwu Kore, over his American citizenship. According to the court, he obtained US citizenship in 2017, which he did not give up by the time he registered for the leader election. Indonesian law requires Indonesian citizenship for candidates contesting in elections. The court also ordered a reelection within 60 days. A verdict by the Constitutional Court cannot be appealed. Orient received 48% of the votes and was backed by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the Democratic Party. [Jakarta Globe]

Indonesia: Manhunt for alleged blasphemy

(nd) Following the declaration of Joseph Paul Zhang to be a prophet, the National Police will start a cross-border manhunt. Such claims might be considered blasphemy, stirring interreligious tension in the Muslim majority country and violate Indonesian law. Indonesia's Criminal Code (KUHP) prohibits blasphemy, with a five-year prison term for deliberately spreading hatred, hostility, or contempt against religions. On his Youtube channel, he posted videos allegedly insulting Muslims. As immigration data showed, he might have left the country early 2018, which will make international cooperation necessary for his capture. The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), an Islamic cleric organization partly funded by the government, and the Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim organization, said Joseph’s statements amount to blasphemy and condemned his insult of the prophet. While the organization urged a firm answer by authorities, they also asked Muslims to remain calm. [Jakarta Globe]

Laos: Another deal made with Chinese companies for land developments 

(py) Following a MoU with Lao authorities, Chinese firm Jia Run will conduct feasibility studies for land developments in the southern Lao’s Attapeu province with an investment volume of up to 152 million USD. There have been concerns over growing Chinese influence in the country. Up to now, Chinese investments and land concessions for development purpose have been notorious for their backlashes on local and the environment, as well as alleged labor law violations. Criticism of the government may lead to a prison sentence, making protests unlikely. Meanwhile, President Thongloun Sisoulith has puzzled Laotians in his latest speech by urging citizens to report any wrongdoings of the police but warned social media users not to post anything critical of the government leadership. [Radio Free Asia 1][Radio Free Asia 2] [China Dialogue]

Laos: UN expert calling for release of prisoners

(nd) A recent UN human rights expert’s statement is calling for the immediate release of three Lao workers, serving long prison terms for criticizing the government on social media. They were arrested in 2016, seemingly forced to confess wrongdoings and sentenced to harsh prison terms mid-2017 in a non-public trial. They were never allowed to contact lawyers. According to the expert, national security laws were misused to prevent legitimate human rights work.

There are no reliable statistics on the number of political prisoners in Laos, according to the US State Department annual human rights report of 2020. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar: Ongoing airstrikes against ethnic minorities

(lf) Airstrikes against Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have been escalating over the last weeks, with the Tatmadaw using Russian-built attack helicopters on Kachin and Karen state. In particular, civilians have been terrorized by the ongoing attacks, while the use of heavy force is meant to show a strong signal that opposition to the military coup will not be tolerated. This comes after it became clear that ethnic armed forces largely sided with the anti-military protestors. The usage of airstrikes has taken the fight between the Tatmadaw and the ethnic armed groups to another level of brutality.  [Nikkei Asia] [Irrawaddy]

In particular, civilians have been impacted by the dropping bombs, a novelty in the fighting. The Free Burma Rangers reports of thousands of displaced people in Karen state alone and a high number of death cases among civilians. [Voice of Asia]

Myanmar: Prominent protest leader arrested

(lf) The military arrested one of the primary protest leaders, Wai Moe Naing. The 26-year-old was hit with a car by security forces during a protest before being detained. The anti-coup protest organizer was among the first anti-coup protesters, making noise with pots and pans, which since then has become a daily occurrence. Several other prominent protest leaders have already been arrested, all of them stating that the arrests would not stop the protests. [Myanmar Now] [Reuters]

Medical staff targeted by the Tatmadaw

(lf) In a protest led by medical staff, several protestors got shot by security forces, killing one person and injuring several others. Several medical staff members have been at the forefront of the protests. 19 government doctors, including the director of the health ministry, have been charged with inciting civil disobedience among medical staff. 

Medical staff have been a target group since they joined Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) on February 3 and were arrested in large numbers. The movement has forced several ministries, hospitals, government offices and banks to stay close since then. Doctors that are part of the CDM have offered free treatment to patients at private clinics, including those injured during the protests. [Reuters] [Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: National Unity Government announced by the opposition

(lf) The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), which consists largely of elected lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD), has announced a National Unity Government (NUG). The oppositional government includes members of ethnic groups and leader of anti-coup protests, as well as ousted lawmakers. The Defence Minister announced they were aiming to form a People’s Defense Force in order to fight the military regime, probably drawing personnel from the ethnic armed groups. Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint, who have both been detained since the coup on February 1 have been named state counsellor and president, the positions they held before the coup. [Reuters][Asia Nikkei 1] The NUG understands itself as legitimate representative of Myanmar and urged the international community and ASEAN not to meet with coup maker Min Aung Hlaing, but invite it to a meeting leaders of the 10-member ASEAN in Jakarta. [Nikkei Asia 2]

Meanwhile, former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged all actors to take strong action against the military coup, and especially referred to the Council “using a range of tools at [its] disposal.” Additionally, ASEAN should at least send a high-level delegation to Myanmar. [The Diplomat]

Myanmar: The situation in Rakhine remains largely peaceful 

(lf) While several armed ethnic groups have taken the heat of the Tatmadaw, the coup has had the opposite effect on the Rakhine state. After the coup, the army removed the categorization of the Arakan Army as a terrorist organisation. This comes after two years of fighting between the two groups. For ethnic Rakhine this has been a relief, however, they have been framed as collaborators and traitors by the majority Bamar population. 

For many ethnic Rakhine, the elections have not felt legitimate: After fighting worsened before the elections in November 2020, the elections were cancelled on a large scale in the region. After the coup, the Arakan National Party is the only ethnic group that has accepted an offer by the Tatmadaw to join the State Administration Council. This divide-and-rule policy has caused great tension between ethnic groups across the country. [The Diplomat 1]

A worrisome development in the state, however, is that a militant jihadist group, Katibe al-Mahdi fi Bilad al-Arakan, has been framing the state as the next place for a jihadist struggle. The newly-emerged group is part of a long, ongoing anti-state struggle within the Muslim population in Rakhine state, however, their specific violence and allegiance to the Islamic State are a new development. [The Diplomat 2]

Myanmar: New Year Amnesty for prisoners

(lf) In an amnesty celebrating Burmese new year, the military junta has released 23,184 prisoners, barely any of them are from the thousands that have been arrested in the last month since the coup. 137 foreigners among the released will be deported. The military is still hunting for another 832 people to be arrested for having connections to the anti-coup protest. Many of the wanted are known figures and activists that have publicly spoken against the military junta. [Reuters]

Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi asks to meet her lawyers

(lf) Aung San Suu Kyi has asked a court for a personal meeting with her lawyers. The former de-facto leader of Myanmar has been in detention since the coup on February 1. This comes after a new charge was filed against her in her second court hearing on April 12. This brings the total number of charges against her to six. Her first court hearing was last week, where a new charge was laid against her, the next hearing will be on April 26. [Reuters], [AiR No. 15, April/ 2021, 2] [France 24]

Philippines: Urgent to protect children from sexual abuse, forced labor

(lp) In 2020, the Department of Justice (DOJ) reported more than double the number of convictions against online sexual exploitation of children (OSEC) than in the previous years. The DOJ attributes this increase in convictions to plea bargaining deals with offenders who agreed to plead guilty to lesser offenses. While the number of convictions seems laudable, it probably represents only a fraction of the sexual offenses against children, which have tripled during the pandemic lockdown. [Manila Bulletin 1] [Reuters]

Meanwhile, domestic abuse against children and women has increased during the pandemic as a result of normalization of violence and insufficiency of protections for children and women. The Commission on Human Rights (CHR) also disclosed on April 14 that child labor and unfair labor practices are prevalent in the mining communities in Romblon, Southwestern Philippines. The CHR urged the government to increase efforts to protect street children from violence. [Manila Bulletin 2]

The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) vowed to intensify efforts to protect children through policies and partnerships that enhance the Philippine Plan of Action to End Violence Against Children (PPAEVAC). The Plan outlines six strategies: promotion of good parenting, appropriate monitoring of service providers that have direct contact with youths, comprehensive communication to promote non-violent social norms, mobilization of youths to participate in promoting good social norms, direct service delivery to youths, monitoring of previous strategies. [Manila Bulletin 3]

Philippines submits Paris Agreement pledge 

(lp) As part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, the Philippines committed on April 15 to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent between 2020 and 2030. Of the 75 percent target, only 2.71 percent will be undertaken unconditional of international funding or other support, while the rest is conditional on these factors. Though a low unconditional number, the government expects it to be continuously updated. [Reuters]

Nonetheless, the recent Executive Order to lift the mining moratorium contradicts this commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [Rappler]

On April 16, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) urged the country’s researchers, policymakers to support technologies, policies that promote the country’s economic growth and environmental sustainability. [Manila Bulletin]

Philippines: Moratorium on new mining deals lifted through executive order

(lp) President Rodrigo Duterte signed an executive order to lift a nine-year moratorium on new mineral agreements in the country to increase revenues. Some officials welcome it as a way to pay the debts incurred throughout the pandemic, which also reduced the revenues from business process outsourcing (BPO) and overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), the two major industries of the country. [Rappler] [Manila Bulletin 1]

However, it raised concerns among pro-environment and other civil groups, who see environmental, humanitarian, and economic dangers. This is due to the Mining Act of 1995, still in place, which incentivizes foreign mining corporations to extract resources through the depletion and contamination of water, disruption of ecosystems, displacement of communities, disenfranchisement of millions. Therefore, the environmental repercussions would outweigh some two percent of royalties. [Manila Bulletin 2] 

The Commission on Human Rights (CHR) called on the government to seek public participation in the review and renegotiation of existing mining agreements. [Manila Standard]

Singapore eyes economic changes in the following years 

(py) According to a new bill called the Significant Infrastructure Government Loan Act (SINGA), the government is enabled to raise 67.3 billion USD for public infrastructure, especially for public transit system and coastal protection plans. While the government has not issued state bonds in four decades, government bodies like the Land Transport Authority issued bonds on capital markets, which do not count towards the national debt. Such move was necessary according to experts due to a need to modernize infrastructure in the following years, changing the approach for Singapore, which is barely running on debts.

Regarding international economics, Singapore might have to brace itself for Biden’s new corporate tax policies. His proposal to raise the corporate tax from 21% to 28% was introduced very timely as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in collaboration with the G20 are also setting up cross-border tax regulations under the BEPS 2.0 scheme that would prevent multinational corporations from avoid taxes in the home country by moving their operations to other jurisdictions. Singapore, where corporates enjoy 17% tax, would be affected if the to-be-agreed tax rate is higher than the domestic one. Other investment hubs like Hong Kong, Switzerland and Ireland would also be affected. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, who recently stepped aside from the succession line of the 4G leader, said that Singapore would act once the details of the BEPS 2,0 are clear. The country is ready to step up its efforts to attract inbound investment by emphasizing non-tax conditions. [The Diplomat] [South China Morning Post] [Channel News Asia]

Thailand: Silent protests and divide between the groups

(nd) A small group of the anti-government movement Ratsadon staged a quiet protest on Sunday in front of Khon Kaen University, demanding the release on bail of detained protest leaders. They complied with all health safety rules while they were closely watched by uniformed and plain-clothed police. Additionally, they reiterated their demands of the resignation of the government, constitutional amendments and the reform of the monarchy.

The group also called on the university to review the termination of the visa of David Streckfuss, the American founder of The Isaan Record, and director of the Council on International Educational Exchange (CIEE), which are based at the university. Mr Streckfuss is a political activist who has been vocal about lese majeste laws. He has lived in Thailand for 35 years, and his recent termination will end his visa. The university denied having been pressured by the police. [Bangkok Post 1] [Coconuts Bangkok] [Bangkok Post 2]

Meanwhile, the term "Prayutocracy" made its ways into the discussion, pushed by the Samakkhi Prachachon group. The suffix was popularized by critics of the Thaksin Shinawatra government, using the term "Thaksinocracy" to refer to governmental excess such as cronyism, conflicts of interest, irregularities and large-scale solidifying of political power. The Progressive Movement has also started a nationwide activity to gather support against Prayutocracy. To this point, the public has yet to see proof of such gross misconduct, and the movement is still fractured. They organized rallies parallel to Ratsadon, which also demands Prayut’s resignation but focused more on monarchic reforms. With respect to the support of either protest group, there has also been a rift within the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Pheu Thai to prepare amendment drafts

(nd) The opposition Pheu Thai Party is preparing two charter amendment drafts, one of which aims to revise Section 256 to have a charter drafting assembly (CDA), as well as Section 272, which gives the military-appointed Senate the power to nominate and elect a prime minister. Since the senators are not elected, but appointed by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), this section is considered undemocratic. Additionally, the draft aims to reimpose the electoral system of the 2007 constitution in order to have two ballots. A charter amendment motion requires the support of at least 100 MPs, over which Pheu Thai Party allegedly commands. They also urged other parties to pressure for the stalled referendum bill, which was determined necessary by the Constitutional Court for amending Section 256, because it would replace the current charter. Its first reading was in December, the second in April, with the debate adjourned due to a low number of lawmakers attending, citing Covid-19 case surges. A re-examination is not expected before June. [Bangkok Post]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China blocks US think tank website

(zh) The website of US think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has been blocked in China after the release of a piece criticizing Beijing’s sanctions on the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), a leading German think tank and the largest European think tank with an exclusive focus on China. 

Scott Kennedy, a CSIS fellow who co-wrote the critique, criticized Beijing  for “believ[ing] it has the right to police debate about China wherever it occurs in the world, whoever does the work, on whatever platform that it appears”. [South China Morning Post]

US intelligence community warns against China as greatest threat

(dql/zh) Calling China an increasingly “near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas,” the 2021 threat assessment report of the US intelligence agencies identifies China’s effort to expand its growing influence as “one of the largest threats to the United States,” warning of intensifying gray-zone battles for power, involving intelligence operations, cyberattacks and global drives for influence. Among other findings, the report predicts that China will at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile over the course of the next decade and field a nuclear triad, while concluding that Chinese cyberattacks “at a minimum, can cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States.” [Office of the Director of National Intelligence, USA]

In the meantime, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Christopher Wray in his testimony before US Congress said “no other country represented more of a threat to the US than China,” adding that Beijing’s capacity to influence US institutions was “deep and wide and persistent,” with the FBI having over 2000 investigations tying back to China and opening a new one “every 10 hours”. In particular, he highlighted Beijing’s operation “Foxhunt,” in which China conducts “uncoordinated illegal law enforcement activity” in US territory as a means to "threaten, intimidate harass (and) blackmail" members of the ethnically Chinese “diaspora”. Beijing sees "Foxhunt” as an international anti-corruption campaign, defending the Chinese authority strictly abides international law. [CNN]

Republican lawmakers call for expansion of restrictions on tech exports to China

(zh/dql) US lawmakers of the Republican Party have called the Biden administration to make it mandatory for American based tech manufacturers of electronic design automation tools, used to help design computer chips, to obtain a governmental license before exporting any products to China.  [South China Morning Post]

The call comes shortly after the US Commerce Department earlier this month put seven Chinese supercomputing entities on its economic blacklist for “building supercomputers used by China’s military actors, its destabilizing military modernization efforts, and/or weapons of mass destruction programs.”

Chinese super processors are among the best in the world, with 214 of them included in the list of the fastest 500 (the US has 113). The fourth most powerful one is developed by the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi which is among the seven targeted entities. [Asia News]

Australia warns China of “disastrous” conflict with Taiwan

(zh) Speaking at this year’s Raisina Dialogue, the Indian government-sponsored annual multilateral conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, Australia's defense chief Angus Campbell warned that a military scenario over Taiwan would be "disastrous" for the region and urged countries to "all work to avoid" the potential conflict on the island, stressing the importance of a peaceful resolution across the Taiwan Strait. [Guardian]

Campbell’s remark comes after in March US Asia Pacific Commander Philip Davidson publicly voiced concerns over Taiwan (along with Guam) being potential next targets of China’s external aggression and over a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan within the next six years. Earlier this month, Michael Goldman, the charge d’affaires ad interim at the US embassy in Canberra, revealed that the US and Australia are discussing strategic planning, of which a Taiwan contingency was identified as an important component.  [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3] [Republic World] [AiR No.14, April/2021, 1].

Meanwhile, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the same event warned of the world moving toward “a great polarization” between authoritarian regimes and liberal democracies, adding in a very thinly veiled critic of China that “economic coercion is being employed as a tool of statecraft” and “liberal rules and norms are under assault.” [Bloomberg]

The relations between Beijing and Canberra have strained over trade restrictions, Australia’s call for an independent investigation of Covid-19 origins, and human rights concerns. In a latest development, import licenses for hay from 25 Australian business that expired two months ago have not been renewed China’s General Administration of Customs. Meanwhile, China's ambassador to Australia Cheng Jingye earlier last week warned Beijing would respond "in kind" if Canberra imposes sanctions over Xinjiang human rights concerns. [South China Morning Post] [AiR No.15, April/2021, 2]. 

China discusses climate change with France, Germany, and US

(zh) China’s President Xi Jinping attended a trilateral virtual climate meeting with France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, at which he reassured China’s willingness to strengthen cooperation on climate change with France and Germany. He, however, also warned that climate change “should not be a bargaining chip for geopolitics, a target for attacking other countries, or an excuse for trade barriers,” referring to the European Parliament’s creation of a carbon border tax that would shield EU companies from cheaper imports from countries with weaker climate policies. [Reuters] [France 24]

Merkel and Macron confirmed to closely work with the Chinese President on climate change, welcoming his reaffirmation of China’s goal of carbon-neutrality before 2060 and expressing support for China to adjust its shorter-term emissions goals. [Deutsche Welle]

After weeks of tensions over EU sanctions and Chinese counter-sanctions over Xinjiang that threaten to upend the EU-China investment deal, the meeting, arranged on invitation of Macron following a phone between Merkel and Xi on the former’s invitation, was an attempt on side of the two European leaders to de-escalate the tensions between Beijing and Brussel and find common ground to cooperate. [South China Morning Post]

In the meantime, the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry met his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua in Shanghai. It was the first time the US official from the Biden administration visit China, signaling hopes for two sides to cooperate on climate change despite sky-high tensions on multiple fronts. The joint statement confirmed that the two countries are “committed to cooperating with each other and with other countries to tackle the climate crisis”. Both sides “look forward” to the Leader Summit on Climate on 22-23 April, a Biden-hosted virtual summit that invites 39 countries including – among others – China, Russia, Canada, Japan and India. The statement, however, did not specify whether President Xi Jinping will attend. [US Department of State] [AiR No.14, April/2021, 1]

EU-China relations: Brussel refuses to repay Montenegro’s loan from China, drops plans for new measures over Hong Kong electoral reform 

(zh) The European Union (EU) has rebuffed Montenegro’s repeated pleas to help repay the billion-dollar loan from China for the unfinished first phase of the Bar-Boljare highway despite concerns over the “socio-economic and financial effects of some of China’s investments” in the tiny Balkan country. Montenegro, a candidate for EU membership, has taken out a loan of 944 million USD from China to build its first section of the highway that will run from its Adriatic coast to the Serbian capital, Belgrade. The country’s Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic has called on the EU to help replace the debt, stressing it would help curb China's influence in the region. But the EU said it “does not repay loans of partners which they took from third parties”, believing there will be other better solutions for the country.

The highway project that is under China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been seen as an example of Beijing’s “debt-trap diplomacy”. In 2020, the cost of the first phase of the construction was estimated to be equal to 45% of the country’s GDP, while the country’s public debt was equal to 90.85%. [Balkan Insight][South China Morning Post 1]

Meanwhile, the EU has withdrawn its plan for new measures against Beijing’s roll-out of sweeping electoral reforms in Hong Kong – including suspension of extradition treaties with China – after failing to secure support from all 27 member states, with Hungary blocking a joint statement. [South China Morning Post 2] [South China Morning Post 3][Reuters]  

In March, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the top decision-making body of the China’s legislature, approved a far-reaching overhaul of Hong Kong’s electoral system. The US and many European countries decried the electoral reform as Beijing’s latest move to crack down on opposition and political dissent in the former British colony. [AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5]

European foreign ministers adopt EU Indo-Pacific strategy

(dql) The European Union (EU) is set to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific after the foreign ministers of the 27 members states adopted the “EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific” this Monday which “recommits the EU politically to the region with the aim of contributing to its stability, security, prosperity and sustainable development, based on the promotion of democracy, rule of law, human rights and international law.”

Without naming China or any other country, the strategy paper acknowledges “dynamics in the Indo-Pacific that have given rise to intense geopolitical competition adding to increasing tensions on trade and supply chains as well as in technological, political and security areas,” while “[t]he universality of human rights is also being challenged.”

On security and defense, it, however, calls for “free and open maritime supply routes in full compliance with international law, in particular UNCLOS, in the interest of all,” and suggests “a meaningful naval presence in the Indo-Pacific,” and to “establish comprehensive monitoring of maritime security and freedom of navigation, according to international law, in particular UNCLOS.” [Council of the European Union] [EEAS]

China, Taiwan lodge solemn representations over Japan’s decision to discharge nuclear wastewater

(zh) China has summoned Japan’s ambassador and lodged solemn representations over Tokyo’s “wrong decision” to discharge around 1.25 million tons of treated water that was used to cool melted fuel from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean. China's foreign ministry accused Tokyo of “violation of international law”, criticizing Tokyo’s action as “extremely irresponsible”.

Similarly, Taiwan's foreign ministry has also made a "solemn representation" to Japan after the island's main opposition party Kuomingtang (KMT) urged the government to lodge a "solemn protest" instead of just expressing being “highly concerned.” [Reuters][Taiwan News]

Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga defended his decision saying the release of the water was an “inevitable task” since the plant’s capacity to store the wastewater is expected to run out as early as the fall of 2022. He reassured that Japan would “take every measure to absolutely guarantee the safety of the treated water and address misinformation.” [New York Times]

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Japan’s decision, saying it is “technically feasible and in line with international practice”. However, three United Nations human rights experts have expressed disappointment over Tokyo's release of the water, criticizing it "imposes considerable risks" to human health and the environment. [CNBC][South China Morning Post] [UN News]

New Zealand is “uncomfortable” with expanding role of Five Eyes to counter China

(zh) In a speech to the government-funded New Zealand China Council, New Zealand’s foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta said the country is “uncomfortable” with expanding the role of the Five Eyes – the intelligence-sharing network including the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. She added that Wellington is not willing “to invoke the Five Eyes as the first point of contact of messaging out on a range of issues that really exist out of the remit of the Five Eyes,” but will continue to seek a “consistent and predictable approach through diplomacy and dialogue” toward Beijing, including issues where disagreements with China exist, including Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

Mahuta’s remark comes after earlier this month Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry Francois-Philippe Champagne had called for the Five Eyes to coordinate a more united front on China and cooperate on issues including policies on critical minerals and sensitive technology as well as a ban on Huawei technologies. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post] [AiR No.14, April/2021, 1]

China-Spain relations: Trade and economic relations strengthened in phone call

(zh) China’s foreign minister Wang Yi has spoken by phone with Spain’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation, Arancha González Laya. The two sides addressed the bilateral economic and trade relations.

González highlighted the frank dialogue Spain has maintained with China, adding that Spain considers the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics as an opportunity for athletes. The comment comes amid the discussion for a possible boycott of the Beijing Games in protest of China’s crackdown in Xinjiang.

On the Chinese side, Wang noted China and Europe are partners, not rivals, and China’s development is not a threat but an opportunity for Europe, marking Beijing’s latest attempt to push Europe away from the US amid a looming closer EU-US relation under the Biden administration. [Spanish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation][Xinhua]

Meanwhile, 46 Taiwanese nationals were sentenced to up to 13 years in prison after a Beijing court found them guilty of involvement in telecom fraud and swindling 678,000 USD from 66 Chinese people from Spain. The 46 were part of the 237 telecom fraud suspects (218 of them being Taiwanese) arrested by police authorities in Madrid and Barcelona in 2016. Defying opposition from Taiwan, Spain deported them all to China, including the Taiwanese. [Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan-US relations: US delegation visits Taiwan to deepen bilateral ties

(zh) In another sign of deepening Taiwan-US ties, an American delegation, including former US senator Chris Dodd, former US deputy secretaries of state James Steinberg and Richard Armitage, and director of the State Department's Office of Taiwan Coordination Dan Biers visited Taiwan last week to reaffirm the US commitment to its partnership with Taiwan and to discuss with President Tsai Ing-wen and other government officials climate change, bilateral economic cooperation, and Taiwan's efforts to reduce carbon emissions and transition to green energy. The selection of Dodd, Steinberg and Armitage – all personally close with President Biden – signals the weight of the visit and the US commitment to Taiwan.  [Focus Taiwan][Reuters]

Prior to the delegation’s visit, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council declared the recent largest warplane incursion to the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), involving 25 warplanes on one day [see AiR No.15, April/2021, 2], was to warn Taiwan not to seek independence by moving closer to the USl, stressing Beijing does not “abandon the use of force, and retain the option of taking all necessary measures.” [South China Morning Post]

In the meantime, US lawmakers from both parties introduced a bill – the Taiwan International Solidarity Act – to counter Beijing’s mounting pressure to isolate Taiwan from international organizations. [Taiwan News]

Cross-strait relations: Concurrent military drills on both sides of the Taiwan Strait

(zh) Taiwan has conducted intensive drills in southern Taiwan to assess the coordination and effectiveness of the military command as well as the joint operational capabilities of the armed forces. During the drills, China begun six-day live-fire drills in waters near the disputed Pratas Islands. I  [Focus Taiwan] [South China Morning Post]

Canadian lawmakers support presenting award to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen

(zh) Further worsening already strained Canada-China relations, the Canadian House of Commons has unanimously passed a motion in support of the Halifax International Security Forum’s (HFX) decision to give the 2020 John McCain Prize for Leadership in Public Service to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen.

The motion also calls on the Canadian government to maintain its funding to HFX even if the award is presented to Tsai, after the Trudeau administration had reportedly threatened to withdraw funding for the award if HFX honored President Tsai, out of concerns of provoking China.  Canadian Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan denied the report as “absolutely false.” [Politico]

The Halifax International Security Forum is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is a forum and network for international government and military officials, academic experts, authors and entrepreneurs. Addressing global security issues, the forum is best known for its annual security summit in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada which brings together over 300 delegates from more than 70 countries and has been dubbed by media as "The Davos of international security." The Canadian government is among the funding partners of the forum. 

Japan-US relations: Biden and Suga demonstrate unity in challenging China’s security threats

(dql) Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga last week met US President Joe Biden to discuss an array of issues of US-Japan relations in Washington, with China topping the agenda. It was Biden’s first face-to-face White House summit since taking office, signaling Japan’s central role in US efforts to face down Beijing.

Demonstrating unity in responding to China’s security threats, Biden announced in a press conference after the meeting that both leaders affirmed “ironclad support for the U.S.-Japanese alliance and for our shared security,” and both sides’ commitment “to working together to take on the challenges from China and on issues like the East China Sea, the South China Sea, as well as North Korea, to ensure a future of a free and open Indo Pacific.” Biden and Suga vowed to “oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea,” and to object “China’s unlawful maritime claims and activities in the South China Sea .”

Further China-related concerns discussed at the meeting included Beijing’s increased military activities near Taiwan, its tightening grip on Hong Kong and the human rights situation of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.

Marking what observers call Japan’s strongest political challenge to China, the joint statement contained for the first time since 1969, before Tokyo normalized ties with Beijing in 1972, a reference to Taiwan, stating that both sides “underscore the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.” In another hit against China, the two leaders agreed to invest together in 5G, artificial intelligence and quantum computing and “affirmed their commitment to the security and openness of 5th generation (5G) wireless networks and concurred that it is important to rely on trustworthy vendors.” [White House 1] [White House 2] [South China Morning Post] [VoA]

South Korea: Japan’s decision to release Fukushima wastewater triggers protests

(nm) Adding to already strained relations between South Korea and Japan, the Japanese government last week decided to release wastewater stored in tanks at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean. The decision sparked a wave of protests in South Korea, both by civic groups and politicians.

In an immediate response, Seoul has called the decision “utterly intolerable” and summoned the Japanese Ambassador Koichi Aiboshi, while President Moon Jae-in ordered his aides to review the possibility of legal actions against the decision, including taking the case to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. [The New York Times] [Korea Herald 1]

This week, South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, voiced more conciliatory tones, saying that South Korea had little reason to object to Tokyo’s plans if the release follows related International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards. He also urged Japan to meet three conditions: providing sufficient scientific evidence and sharing information; having more consultations in advance; and guaranteeing South Korea’s participation in IAEA’s safety verification process. [Korea Times 1]

South Korea’s oceans minister nominee, added that the government is preparing “detailed countermeasures,” to protect the public from potential harm caused by the wastewater release, but made clear that the “top priority is to have the Japanese government retract the decision.” [Yonhap]

Meanwhile, several civic groups have also condemned Japan’s plans, with some of them protesting in front of the Japanese embassy. A group of progressive university students staged a four-day sit-in, while merchants warned of the effects on the Korean fisheries industry. [Korea Times 2] [Korea Herald 2]

South Korea-US relations: Moon and Biden to hold talks late in May

(nm) South Korean President Moon Jae-in will travel to Washington late next month to meet US President Joe Biden, following Biden’s invitation. The first summit between the two presidents is expected to focus on the denuclearization of North Korea and peace on the Korean peninsula, as the Biden administration is in the final stages of its North Korea policy review. In addition to denuclearization, the two parties are also expected to discuss strained relations between South Korea and Japan, responses to China’s increased assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as cooperation in other fields, including infrastructure spending and supply chains in key materials, such as semiconductors.

The meeting will be held about a month after last week’s talks between Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, as the Biden administration is seeking to strengthen its alliances in Asia. [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2]

South Korea and the United States are also currently in discussion on climate change related issues. Over the weekend, South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong hosted a meeting with US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry to review bilateral cooperation to fight climate change, following a meeting between Kerry and Chinese officials on the same issue and ahead of the multilateral virtual Leaders Summit on Climate hosted by Biden this week. Both sides affirmed the need for their countries to take leading roles in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Moon will participate in the Leaders’ summit on Friday which is meant to encourage countries to make stronger commitments, joining up to 40 world leaders. [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2] [Council on Foreign Relations]

North Korea-China relations: North Korean imports from China spike in March

(nm) As speculation is growing that North Korea might reopen its border with China after sealing off all borders at the outbreak of the pandemic, imports from China to North Korea have grown to a six-month high in March. After Pyongyang had introduced even stricter border controls in October, trade had practically come to a halt. China accounts for more than 90% of the North’s trade. Given existing UN sanctions against North Korea, observers believe that exports from China would, however, not return to pre-sanctions level, but be limited to farm production materials, such as fertilisers, tractors, and agricultural machinery parts.

Although Pyongyang claims it had had no Covid-19 infections, the country was among the first to close its borders and has since imposed one of the strictest border control policies with flights, cargo ships, and trains being suspended. Beijing and Pyongyang are currently speculated to be moving closer amid growing tensions with the US. [South China Morning Post] [Korea Herald]

Inter-Korean relations: South Korea seeks to toughen regulations on internet-based exchanges with North Korea

(nm) South Korea’s unification ministry has announced plans to require its citizens to obtain government approval prior to exchanging digital files of films or books with North Koreans via the internet. The ministry had announced plans in January to revise the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Act so that it would require prior approval from the ministry to exchange “immaterial things” via electronic tools, as well as via information and communication networks. Contrary to media reports, the law does not affect radio broadcasting toward the North, according to the ministry’s spokesperson. As the two nations have not signed an official peace treaty, it is currently necessary to have all inter-Korean contact approved in advance or reported to the government afterwards. [Korea Herald 1]

The announcement comes amid inter-Korean tensions over what has been called a quiet arms race that could jeopardize the delicate peace on the peninsula. Last week, North Korean outlet Tongil Voice denounced the South’s plans to purchase weapons as an attempt to accelerate preparations to invade the North. The report refers to Seoul’s decision to import 36 large US combat helicopters by 2028. [Korea Herald 2] [The New York Times]

Mongolia: Permanent representative to UN meets WTO Director General

(nm) Last week, Mongolia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and other International Organizations in Geneva, Lundeg Purevsuren, held a meeting with the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Purevsuren congratulated the Director General for being selected to chair the WTO Council for Trade in Goods from 2021 to 2022 and expressed hope that she would strengthen the Mongolian government’s capacity and increase the country’s participation in multilateral trade negotiations. [AKI Press]

Last month, the WTO concluded its Mongolia trade policy review for 2021, noting severe economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the heavy reliance on a few sectors. [WTO]

France, India and Australia step up trilateral cooperation, with China on the horizon

(lm) France, India and Australia have indicated they are jointly planning to step up their presence in the Indo-Pacific, modelling their closer cooperation after the efforts of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), in areas such as maritime security, vaccine cooperation, higher education and emerging technology. [South China Morning Post]

The countries’ three foreign ministers were speaking on April 14 in a virtual discussion at the Raisina Dialoue, a multilateral conference held annually in New Delhi, after Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne cancelled her trip to the Indian capital due to the coronavirus pandemic. In September of last year, the three countries held their first-ever trilateral meeting at the foreign-secretary level to explore possible ways of cooperation in addressing the challenges of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific [see AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]. Their second trilateral discussion took place in February, leading up to last week’s cancelled meeting [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].

India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the trilateral, in its next meeting, would discuss “something similar” to the list of topics on the agenda of the Quad – a loose strategic coalition comprising of France, the United States, India and Australia, which is increasingly seen as a potential counterweight to growing Chinese influence and alleged assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Jaishankar also said that New Delhi would not be constrained between the Strait of Malacca and the Gulf of Aden. [Hindustan Times]

Jaishankar’s French counterpart, Jean-Yves Le Drian underscored France’s legitimate role in the Indo-Pacific by pointing to the two million French inhabitants in the region. Apart from inviting all Quad members to its La Perouse naval exercise held earlier this month, the French Navy’s Carrier Strike Group will be joining Indian naval forces to jointly conduct this year’s iteration of their Exercise Varuna in the strategically important Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Notably, the United Arab Emirates for the first time will be joining the drills [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].

Meanwhile, Australia’s High Commissioner to India on April 20 launched the Australia-India Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative Partnership (AIIPOIP) grant program, which seeks proposal on how the two countries alongside with other regional partners can advance their shared maritime objectives. [EastMojo]

India, Pakistan hold secret talks to break Kashmir impasse

(lm) The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan have insisted that their respective visits to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) recently were purely bilateral, days after the Gulf nation’s envoy to the United States confirmed his country was mediating between the South Asian neighbors to help them reaching a “healthy and functional” relationship. [Al Jazeera] [South China Morning Post]

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi started a three-day official visit to the UAE on April 17, while India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrived the following day. Both ministers held separate meetings with their Emirati counterpart Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and other top officials. [Bloomberg] 

The UAE’s envoy to Washington, meanwhile, has lend further credence to news reports that earlier this year had claimed that Gulf nation had brokered secret talks between India and Pakistan, which resulted in a four-step “roadmap for peace” between the two South Asian neighbors [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]. 

In a first indication that serious efforts at resuming bilateral dialogue are ongoing, India and Pakistan in February jointly announced to revive a 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) – the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir valley between the two countries – and all other sectors [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]. A day after the joint ceasefire deal, bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with his Indian counterpart, Jaishankar,  in New Delhi to discuss “all regional and international issues of common interest”. [Reuters]

There has since been some further movement on multiple fronts, but Islamabad earlier this month did a swift U-turn on plans by the government’s Economic Coordination Council (ECC) to import cotton and sugar from India, linking any “normalization” in ties to New Delhi restoring Indian-administered Kashmir’s special status [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1].

British PM Johnson cancels trip to India over COVID-19 situation

(lm) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s planned visit to India next week has been cancelled because of the country’s escalating coronavirus crisis. Johnson and his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi will speak later this month through video channel to launch plans for the future partnership between New Delhi and London, a joint statement by the United Kingdom and India announced on April 19. [bbc] [The Guardian]

The trip – billed as Johnson's first major overseas visit since entering Downing Street in 2019 – had originally been due to place in January but it was postponed because of COVID-19 [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. The second cancellation comes after new coronavirus cases in India reached more than 273,000 on April 19, a doubling of the peak of new infections during the country’s first wave in September last year. Earlier, Britain on April 16had already added India to its list of states subject to the strictest travel restrictions after detecting more than 100 cases of a coronavirus variant first identified in the country. [Reuters]

Importantly, the United Kingdom published on March 16 its long-anticipated “Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy”, in which national security and international policy is articulated. Marking a significant step forward in the UK’s new life outside of the European Union, the Review describes London’s future relationship with the Middle East, North Africa, and explains an ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’. [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4]

While Johnson’s trip to New Delhi was initially being described as a post-Brexit tilt to the Indo-Pacific, it now has become part of a plan to transform the G7 group into a broader grouping of 10 leading democracies capable of challenging China and other authoritarian states. London’s intention to increase its presence in the Pacific was illustrated in December of last year, when the British premier invited Australia, India and South Korea to attend the G7 summit in Cornwall in June as guests - a move that has caused raised eyebrows among some of the other attendees [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

India-China border disengagement expected to be a lengthy process

(lm) Along the Sino-Indian border, high up in the Himalayas, tensions continue to simmer after the latest round of talks held on April 9 ended with no sign of progress. The latest negotiations, unlike previous rounds of talks, ended without a joint statement playing up the prospect of disengagement. [The Straits Times]

After nine months of tense military confrontation, the two sides in February began withdrawing from their positions on the southern and northern banks of Pangong Lake as part of a phased, synchronized military disengagement [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. But Beijing and New Delhi are yet to resolve other "friction points", including Gogra, Hot Springs and the Depsang Plains in eastern Ladakh, which did not feature in the purported disengagement plan [see AiR No. 45, November/2020, 2]. [The Indian Express]

A statement released by the Western Theatre Command of the Chinese military said both sides will maintain military and diplomatic contact, while at the same time urging India to “treasure the current positive situation of de-escalation”. A separate statement by India said that the completion of disengagement in other areas would pave the way for restoring calm and that both sides agreed on “the need to resolve the outstanding issues in an expeditious manner in accordance with the existing agreements and protocols”. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, in a virtual discussion at the annual Raisina Dialogue [see article above], India’s Chief of Defense Staff General Bipin Rawat last week said India has a stood firm on the northern border against China, adding that it was “my way or no other way” about the drawn-out border stand-off. [South China Morning Post]

The General also said the development of “disruptive technologies” had emboldened China to wage an “undeclared war” against India and other nations through cyberattacks. The army chief’s statement linking China to cyberattacks comes after a US internet security firm in February alleged that a hacking group affiliated with the Chinese government had been repeatedly targeted a dozen critical nodes across the Indian power generation and transmission infrastructure to possibly coerce New Delhi on the border issue [see 

India’s shadow looms over revived China-Bhutan border talks

(lm) During a four-day meeting of experts between China and Bhutan last week, the two sides agreed to resume long-delayed talks on their disputed boundary, but analysts say a breakthrough is unlikely, given Indian influence over Bhutan. [South China Morning Post] [The EurAsian Times]

Since 1984, Bhutan and China have held 24 rounds of talks, with discussions being limited to three areas of dispute in the western and central sections of the boundary. Talks have been frozen since 2017, however, following the months-long border stand-off between China and India in Doklam, a territory claimed by both Beijing and Thimphu. Back then, New Delhi, which has historically close ties and considerable influence over Bhutan, supported Thimphu’s claims, in part because the area is close to the Siliguri corridor, a narrow stretch of land also known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ that connects India’s north-east with the mainland. The issue ended inconclusively when both India and China agreed to withdraw from the plateau in August 2017. [AiR 29. December 2017]

In July of last year, then, Beijing for the first time publicly put on record that is has a border dispute with Bhutan over the country`s eastern sector, and - in a tangential reference to India – said that “a third party should not point fingers” in the Sino-Bhutan border dispute. Beijing`s assertion followed earlier attempts to stop the funding for the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) in eastern Bhutan’s Trashigang district, which China claimed was “disputed”. [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]

India’s chief of the air staff on official visit to France

(lm) Indian Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria on April 19 embarked on a five-day official visit to France, during which he is scheduled to hold talks with several senior French military officials, including his French counterpart General Philippe Lavigne, and visit several operational facilities and air bases. [mint]

Bhadauria’s trip is the latest in a series of events reflecting the vitality of the strategic partnership between New Delhi and Paris. For it comes on the heels of a visit by French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves le Drian to India, who conducted an official visit to New Delhi from April 13 to April 15 [see article in this edition].

During his visit, the chief of the Indian Air Force (IAF) is also expected to flag-off another six French-made Rafale jets. It will be the fifth batch of aircraft arriving in India since the government’s purchase four years ago of a total of 36 planes worth $9.2 billion from French defense manufacturer Dassault Aviation. The delivery is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2021. [AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4] [Hindustan Times]

India, EU hold 9th joint Human Rights Dialogue

(lm) India and the European Union have underscored their commitment to human rights and the shared principles and values of democracy, freedom and rule of law, ahead of their joint summit scheduled for May.

The two sides expressed the need to foster greater engagement on human rights issues and exchanged views on strengthening human rights, including in social, economic and cultural spheres during their ninth dialogue on the subject in New Delhi on Monday. [EEAS]

Indonesia, South Korea to deepen defense relation

(nd) Last week’s high-level visit by Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to South Korea highlighted the increased security interests between the two countries. Although security ties date back and a defense agreement was signed in 2013, recently there is a push to boost relations and broaden cooperation to fields of cybersecurity. This forms part of a general South Korean policy to enhance ties to Southeast Asia.

At the center of the most recent trip was the rollout of the KF-X indigenous fighter jet, which Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo attended virtually, highlighting the importance paid to the relationship. Still, the Indonesian approach to the KF-X/IF-X fighter jet program, which has been delayed due to issues on both sides, was not commented or clarified. [The Diplomat 1] Their presence none the less signify their continued commitment for acquisition, further diversifying Indonesia’s air force, whose majority is from USA and Russia. Due to its superior features, the acquisition of KF-21 might impact the future balance of military air power in Southeast Asia. In comparison to defense needs due to Indonesia’s geography and the plan to modernize the military, though, the acquisition is more likely aimed at preserving a status quo that initiating an arms race. [The Diplomat 2]

Malaysia, Indonesia and the Middle East

(nd) A recent peer-reviewed academic article [access to the paper here] sheds light on the relation between Malaysia and Indonesia with the Middle East. While Malaysian Foreign Minister recently visited Turkey, Qatar, and Iran, the UAE announced to invest $10 billion in Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund.

While they face the usual options and constraints middle powers do, it is important how foreign policy and domestic issues are intertwined for the Southeast Asian nations. The conflicts in the Middle East have affected both countries, with particular influence of Saudi Arabia, which together with the UAE, is the largest regional trading partner and investor. Saudi Arabia has acted as a major supporter of religious activities and education. It was also involved in the Malaysian 1MDB state fund scandal, with former Prime Minister Najib Razak claiming a donation from the Saudi royal family. Due to these connections, both Malaysia and Indonesia have largely followed Saudi Arabi’s foreign policy line, with regard to Yemen, Qatar and Iran, with some exceptions. With respect to Iran, though, both countries followed then-President Donald Trump in withdrawing economically. The government led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad recalled troops from Yemen in 2018. Mahathir also organized a summit of Muslim-majority countries, generating criticism from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to stay away.

The Syrian civil war highlighted a limited ability to influence the course of events, leading to a focus on humanitarian assistance, and to mitigate the domestic pushback by countering the rise of Islamic extremism by joiners to the Islamic State. While Malaysia adopted a top-down approach through the Prevention of Terrorism Act in 2015, Indonesia combined state action with activity by different agents, from security services to local authorities and the two largest Muslim social movements in the country, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah. [The Diplomat] 

Malaysia to criticize Bangladesh High Commission over job portal

(nd) Following the launch of a job portal by the Bangladesh High Commission last November, Malaysian Ministry of Human Resources said it was “shocked” about this move without prior consultation. Such a portal contravenes Malaysia’s own employment portal and licensed private recruiters, confusing employers, possibly causing an influx of illegal workers and jeopardizing Malaysians’ job prospects. The High Commission in Kuala Lumpur clarified its portal purely targeted undocumented Bangladeshi workers in Malaysia and therefore aims to assist the Malaysian government in legalizing such workers, who are mostly employed in palm oil plantations. Out of 1.7 million legal foreign workers, 268,000 are Bangladeshis. According to an estimate by the World Bank, between 1.23 million and 1.46 million undocumented migrants worked in Malaysia in 2017. [Benar News]

ASEAN leader to meet on April 24

(lf) The leaders of the members of ASEAN have finally agreed to meet in Jakarta on April 24 on the situation in Myanmar. The ongoing violent conflict between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed group causes the neighbor country to worry about a civil war. Coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is expected to attend. [Thai PBS world]

ASEAN has long struggled for a cohesive response to the situation. It is rooted in ASEAN’s core principle of non-interference, which was invoked frequently by members, and it therefore lacks a mechanism for regional action. While the international community has condemned the coup with some imposing sanctions, the responses have not been successful yet. [East Asia Forum]

Ahead of the meeting, Southeast Asian states were discussing the possibility of sending a humanitarian aid mission, in order to foster dialogue between the military and the protestors. [Reuters]

UN concerned with potential civil war in Myanmar

(lf) The UN human rights office voiced its grave concern over the situation in Myanmar, warning for the escalation potential of the situation. The office warned that the situation may deteriorate into a similar situation as in Syria. It has adhered to the international community and the state of Myanmar to not commit the same deadly mistakes as in Syria. [Reuters]

Japan and the coup in Myanmar

(nd) The Myanmar military has detained a Japanese journalist in Yangon on Sunday. The Japanese government is seeking his immediate release. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners activist group, 737 people have been killed by security forces since the coup and 3,229 remain in detention. [Reuters]

Japan did experience criticism by Western governments and media outlets for its slow response to the coup, although the government was quick and frequent to denounce it. Moreover, since Japan is gravely concerned with Myanmar possibly drifting more into China’s orbit, they are aware of the geostrategic significance of Myanmar in the region. Japan was a central actor within the military’s political reforms and opening up of Myanmar in 2011, which was prompted by fears of a growing influence of China. Japan facilitated diplomatic contacts with the West and — upon the condition of further democratization — provided a loan to Myanmar to clear its debts with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, in order for them to start development aid. Additionally, Japan has invested much in the partnership with ASEAN, both for economic reasons and due to similar security issues, such as the South China Sea. [East Asia Forum]

Philippines to increase patrols in South China Sea, summons Chinese envoy

(lp) The Philippines summoned the Chinese Ambassador to Manila Huan Xilian and demanded that China withdraw all its vessels from Philippine maritime zones. Meanwhile, the number of Chinese vessels dispersed across these zones increased to at least 261. [Reuters 1] [Rappler]

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) continued to patrol the South China Sea, not using warships or air forces that China could misinterpret as a declaration of war. Meanwhile, the US and the Philippines proceed with Balikatan, a two-week joint naval war exercise, which some officials worry could heighten tensions with China. Moreover, Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. called on the US for caution in their patrols, referring to the powerful US Navy’s 7th Fleet stationed in Japan. The US and the Philippines attempt to show military power without triggering war. [Bangkok Post] [Inquirer] [Manila Bulletin 1]

Most recently, the AFP also refuted rumors of a coup allegedly motivated by President Rodrigo Duterte’s inaction against China’s incursion. In stark contrast with his previous attitude towards Beijing, Duterte responded that he is willing to confront China, but he believes it would be futile and bloody. What is more, the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the US would not be activated if the Philippines starts the war, instead of being attacked. [CNN] [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) is verifying reports that China is undergoing deep-sea drilling in the South China Sea. This was reported by China’s state news agency, Xinhua, who did not specify where the drilling activity took place. Duterte claimed that, if these reports verify that China is drilling in Philippine territory, he would send warships to lay claim to the resources that China must “share.” [Manila Bulletin 2] [Reuters 2]

Coordination in the South China Sea: Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia

(lp) Last week, the Philippines and Malaysia reaffirmed their commitment to the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defense cooperation signed in 1994. Similarly, Vietnam and Malaysia announced that they will sign a MOU this year to strengthen cooperation in maritime security. Moreover, Malaysia and Indonesia will pursue a joint development of oil and gas elds on their maritime boundaries. These latest cooperation form part of a broader effort to find unified ranks towards China, dating back some years. Analysts welcomed the move, which could solidify the bargaining position of Southeast Asian Nations towards China, which prefers unilateral agreements. The biggest obstacle to such joint action were called “intramural differences” by experts among themselves, such as conflicts over illegal fishing, which are concentrating resources and limiting bargaining power. [Manila Bulletin] [South China Morning Post]

Philippines seeks cooperation with Russia, India, France, Denmark

(lp) Besides securing 20 million Sputnik V vaccine doses from Russia, the Philippines expects further bilateral cooperation in defense, trade, investment, health. [Nikkei Asia]

The Philippines also expects vaccine supplies from India. In March, they maintained negotiations with the Serum Institute of India to not only obtain Novavax and AstraZeneca vaccines, but also to begin local production of vaccines in the Philippines. However, the latter was not mentioned in a recent phone conversation between the two countries’ leaders. [PhilStar 1] The Philippines just granted emergency use authority to Covaxin vaccines, developed by the Indian pharmaceutical company Bharat Biotech. [PhilStar 2] [Manila Bulletin 1]

Moreover, the Philippines and France reaffirmed their commitment to cooperate in similar fields, especially in light of France’s new role as Development Partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). [Manila Bulletin 2]

Meanwhile, the Philippines also seeks AstraZeneca vaccines that were left suspended in Denmark due to reported cases of negative side effects. In fact, the Philippines will resume the use of AstraZeneca vaccines after public health organizations conducted a two-week evaluation, concluding that the benefits outweigh the risks. This decision illustrates the shortage of vaccine supplies the Philippines faces. [Manila Bulletin 3] [Inquirer 1]

Furthermore, the Philippine Department of Science and Technology (DOST) emphasized the need to provide incentives for pharmaceutical firms to manufacture vaccines in the country, in addition to the five to six year-income tax holiday and preferential treatment in biddings. For now, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is negotiating with six firms to begin local vaccine production by late 2022. [Inquirer 2]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

21 April 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, France     

Europe’s green moment: How to meet the climate challenge 

Ahead of US President Biden’s climate summit and amid division over a range of issues in the European Green Deal, this webinar asks: How can decision-makers mobilise creative coalitions and integrate the European Green Deal into EU foreign policy to deliver on the deal? 

Please see [ECFR] for more information and mandatory registration.

21 April 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. (GMT-5), Center for American Progress, United States      

A Blueprint for Ending White Supremacist Violence 

This event in cooperation with the McCain Institute will bring together members of the US Congress, followed by a panel of experts from the national security, faith, technology, racial justice, immigration, and civil rights sectors, to discuss ways to tackle white supremacist violence while respecting civil liberties and protecting vulnerable communities. 

For more information, please visit [American Progress].

21 April 2021 @ 5:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Asia Society Australia, Australia 

Biden and Asia: Perspectives From the Region 

After 100 days of President Biden in the White House, this webinar will discuss the achievement and the potentials of the Biden presidency, taking a closer look at the President’s priorities, approach to China, and his Indo-Pacific strategy. It will also take a look at Asia’s view at the new administration.  

For more information, please visit [Asia Society]. 

21 April 2021 @ 11:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. (GMT-4), Stanford University, USA

Sovereignty as Responsibility

Contemporary global politics are marked by a renewed debate over the significance and limits of state sovereignty. In the eyes of many, the COVID-19 pandemic has reasserted the importance of territorial sovereignty as well as of national identity and citizenship.

Please register here:[Stanford]

21 April, 2021 @ 10:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

Raising Ambitions: Developing the offshore wind industry

This event will discuss key opportunities for the industry to help meet these global climate goals, and the policy frameworks that are guiding the industry. 

Please register here: [Atlantic]

22 April 2021 @ 1:00-2:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Stanford University, USA 

Why Europe’s Single Market Surpassed America’s

This event will discuss contingent connections that political movements in each arena forged between ideas about markets and governance, channeling the 20th-century “return to markets” into contrasting varieties of neoliberalism.

Please register here: [Stanford]

22 April 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), CATO Institute, USA

The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency 

This event will discuss how, when international war is in decline, there might be more‐viable diplomatic devices to be leveraged and that a large military is scarcely required.

For more information, see [CATO].

22 April 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-8), World Affairs, USA

ONE FAMILY'S JOURNEY THROUGH A BROKEN REFUGEE SYSTEM 

This event will discuss the plight of global refugees pursuing the American dream.

For more information, see [World Affair].

22 April 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+7), Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, Indonesia

Indonesia Policy Dialogue: The Future of Indonesia’s Foreign Trade 

In this event, Muhammad Lutfi, Trade Minister of the Republic of Indonesia, will discuss the direction of Indonesia’s trade policies in the face of economic recession from COVID-19, and Indonesia’s position on global value chains in the long term. 

Please visit [CIPS] for more information. 

22 April 2021 @ 10:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy    

Sustainable Recovery for a Green Future 

As the Covid-induced crisis is calling for the right balance between a global recovery and environmental targets, this event will try to evaluate the key ingredients of a truly sustainable recovery, the contributions expected from key countries, as well as from multilateral efforts such as the Italian G20 in 2021. 

For more information and registration, please visit [ISPI].  

 22 April 2021 @ 9:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Clingendael, the Netherlands      

Fostering Digital Connectivity in and with the Indo-Pacific 

This webinar co-organized with the Institute of South Asian Studies the National University of Singapore, and the European Union will take a closer look at the digital and technological opportunities of the European Union in the Indo-Pacific region, arguing that those opportunities might even have more to offer than a greater maritime presence. 

Please visit [Clingendael] for more information. 

22 April 2021 @ 13:30 a.m. (GMT+2), Clingendael, the Netherlands      

Dealing with China on high-tech issues 

Against the backdrop of an increased politicization of technologies and supply chains – especially of the semi-conductor industry – and as collaborative advantages are called into question, this webinar asks: How can European industry and government deal with the squeeze? 

Follow [Clingendael] for more information. 

23 April 2021 @ 8:30 a.m. -  5:30 pm (GMT-5), Wilson Center, USA

Climate Change and The Arctic: Profound Disruption, Uncertain Impact

This event will cover issues ranging from the concrete change taking place, to emerging national security issues, to economic growth and regulation, to the impact on and role of indigenous peoples. 

For more information, see [Wilson].

23 April 2021 @ 4:00-5:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Stanford University, USA

The Biden-Suga Summit and the Future of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific 

This event will discuss how the US-Japan alliance will intersect with other emerging frameworks such as the Quad and the CPTPP to shape the regional and global geopolitics in the coming years and decades? Featuring two leading foreign policy experts from Japan and the US, Yuichi Hosoya (Keio University) and Sheila Smith (Council on Foreign Relations), this panel examines these questions on the heels of the Biden-Suga meeting.

For more information see, [FSI].

23 April 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Autonomy and Agency in Southeast Asia: Rethinking “Don’t Make Us Choose” and Resolving the Deer-Dragon Dilemma

This webinar will critically examine the “Don’t Make Us Choose” (DMUC) as a Southeast Asian plea to the United States and China in light of their rivalry in the region is not surprising, arguing that this approach negative, external, and passive as it asks Washington and Beijing not to do something. Instead, ASEAN and/or its member states themselves could/should positively, internally, and proactively decide to do and then try to do, thus living up to the attributes of autonomy and agency.

More details on the event available at [ISEAS].

24 April 2021 @ 1:00 - 5:00 p.m. GMT, Chatham House, UK 

Climate change 2021 

This event will discuss what success at COP26 should look like, explore sustainable industry and finance measures and assess green recovery strategies.

For more information, see [Chatham House].

26 April 2021 @ 3:00-4:15 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS, Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Malaysia’s Post-2018 Parliament: from “rubber stamp” to “frog exchange”

This webinar will discuss what incentives are needed for MPs in Malaysia to perform in formulating policy and serving their constituents effectively.

Find more about the event at [ISEAS].

27 April, 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+10),  Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia 

The Global Fund and the fight against COVID-19

Lady Roslyn Morauta, the Vice-Chair of the Board of the Global Fund, will discuss the impact of the COVID 19 on the fight against AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, and how the organization is using its experience working with partners and governments to support a response on a massive worldwide scale.

For more information, see [AIIA]

27 April 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+2), European Council on Foreign Relations, France     

Digital sovereignty of the European Union in the international arena 

How can the EU achieve its goals on digital sovereignty against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical competition? This panel will take a closer look at data protection, risks emanating from dependence on foreign technology, as well as the lack of private investment in AI and securing European values and principles.

If you are interested in this event, please visit [ECFR] for more information. 

28 April 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Egmont Institute, Belgium      

Strategic Autonomy and the Transformation of the EU 

This event will launch the FIIA report “Strategic Autonomy and the Transformation of the EU: New agendas for Security, Diplomacy, Trade and Technology” and delve into key trends and major disputed on the path towards a more capable and self-reliant Europe. 

For more information, please visit [Egmont Institute]. 

28 April 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Bruegel, Belgium

China and the WTO: (How) can they live together? 

Considering the mismatch between the WTO framework and China’s economic model, this webinar asks: Can the two systems love together, or what needs to be changed in order to make them more compatible with one another and avoid continuous tensions? 

If you are interested in this event, please visit [Bruegel] for more information. 

28 April, 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:30 pm (GMT+2), Institute for Security Studies, South Africa

Child trafficking in West and Central Africa: spotlight on response gaps 

This seminar will examine current child trafficking trends and drivers in West and Central Africa. Speakers will also consider national and regional prevention strategies.

Please register here: [Enact]

28 April 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-7), World Affairs, USA

From the new Middle East Fault Lines to Atmospheric Jihadism 

This event will discuss the new Middle East fault lines and the jihadi terror threat, and how it continues to evolve in France since the now infamous attack on the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo through the use of social media and online networks.

For more information, see [World Affair].

29 April 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-8), RAND, USA

Changing Unemployment and the Post-Pandemic Workforce

This event will discuss ways the pandemic is changing how we treat unemployment. 

For more information, see [RAND]

29 April 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT+2), Bruegel, Belgium

The external dimension of the EU’s Green Deal: What role for EU development cooperation? 

This webinar will explore the role of EU development finance in addressing climate change and delivering development impact in partner countries, asking how the EU might align its development efforts with the external dimension of the EU Green Deal, and how the union can support the transition in partner countries, while ensuring impact on human development. 

For more information, please visit [Bruegel]. 

29 April 2021 @ 4:30 p.m. (GMT+2), Bruegel, Belgium

Covid-19 and the geopolitics of the Balkans

This webinar asks: How have China, Russa, Turkey, and others stepped up their activities in the Balkans at a time when the enlargement perspective is sinking below the horizon. 

If you wish to learn more about this event, please follow [Bruegel].

Recent book releases 

Rene H Levy, Mending America's Political Divide: People Over Partisan Politics, Independently published, 206 pages, April 15, 2020, reviewed in [Reader Views].

Cyrus McQueen, Tweeting Truth to Power: Chronicling our Caustic Politics, Crazed Times, & the Great Black & White Divide, Cyrus McQueen LLC, 439 pages, December 11, 2020, reviewed in [New England Theatre Geek].

Calls

The University of Minnesota Law School invites paper submissions for its first annual Cybersecurity Law and Policy Scholars Conference to be held on Oct 1-2, 2021. The deadline for submission is May 1, 2021. For more details see, [UML].

The National Bureau of Economic Research invites paper for its virtual conference "Economics of Artificial Intelligence" scheduled for September 23-24, 2021. The deadline for submission is May 31, 2021. Find more details at [NBER].

The European Commission has opened a call for research and innovation to combat the threat of coronavirus variants.The submission deadline is 6 May, 2021. For more details, see [EU].

Jobs & positions

The Faculty of Law of National University of Singapore is offering the position of Research Associate/ Research Fellow/Senior Research Fellow with focus on international trade, transport and shipping law–related issues. Deadline for applications is April 30, 2021. For more details, see [NUS].

The International Monetary Fund is hiring a Deputy Division Chief, Publisher Division. Closing date for applications is May 3, 2021. Further information at [UN Jobs].

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