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The Morning Risk Report: Kalshi Plans to Require Users Disclose Where They Work to Make Certain Trades

By David Smagalla | Dow Jones Risk Journal

 

A Kalshi ad at a bus stop in Washington, D.C. Photo: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg News

Good morning. Kalshi is planning to require that participants in some prediction markets disclose the identity of their employers, after an advisory committee recommended tighter security measures to combat potential insider trading and market manipulation.

  • What is planned: Users seeking to make bets in some markets linked to material nonpublic information will be required to submit an online form disclosing where they work, Kalshi said. The changes are set to be rolled out in the coming weeks.
     
  • Additional controls: Sensitive betting markets related to issues such as company performance and national security, including the war in Iran, are expected to require employment disclosure, according to a Kalshi official.
     
  • What Kalshi will do with info: In most cases, Kalshi won’t verify the employment information provided by users unless the company learns of suspicious activity, a Kalshi spokeswoman said. Once suspicious activity is flagged, the company will launch an investigation and seek proof of employment.
     
  • Why? The increasing popularity of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has compounded pressure on them to address suspicious activity, with lawmakers, regulators and prosecutors raising concerns about insider trading.
     

What to watch: Trump Regulator Proposes New Rules on What’s Allowed on Prediction Markets

 
Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
Quantum Computing Threat Elevates Cryptography to Board-Level Risk Oversight

Quantum computers will break today’s cryptography. Boards are responding by elevating cryptography from an invisible IT detail to a governed risk program, and asking—can we put a KPI on cryptography? Read More

More Risk & Compliance articles from Deloitte
 

Compliance

The order marks the latest step from the European Commission in its competition probe into Meta’s AI practices after the company updated its WhatsApp business terms last year. Photo: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg News

Meta gets EU antitrust order to open WhatsApp to rival AI chatbots.

The European Union told Meta Platforms to reverse a policy that effectively bans rival artificial intelligence chatbots from using a tool to communicate with users on WhatsApp as officials continue to probe the company’s messaging service.

Background: The order marks the latest step from the European Commission—the EU’s executive arm—in its competition probe into Meta’s AI practices after the company updated its WhatsApp business terms last year.

 

Lenders must consider immigration status, U.S. regulator warns.

Creditors must consider an applicant’s immigration status when determining their loan eligibility, reports Risk Journal’s Max Fillion. (free link)

Undocumented immigrants may be unable to pay back loans if they are suddenly removed from the U.S., the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said in guidance published Monday. Federal regulations require mortgage and credit card issuers to consider applicants’ future employment prospects when determining whether to issue a loan, the agency said.

Banks on the trail: The guidance comes shortly after the U.S. Treasury asked banks to look out for workers illegally in the U.S. using their services because they pose a threat to the integrity of the country’s financial system.

 ‏‏‎ ‎
  • Congressional Democrats are calling on the largest U.S. banks to disclose information about how they plan to handle the risks posed by fast-changing AI capabilities.
     
  • The European Union will impose transaction bans on 31 Russian banks, Risk Journal reports, and has put in place new export restrictions on material Russia’s military could use. (free link)
     
  • The European Union signed off on revised rules mandating all member states implement standardized foreign direct investment vetting for national security risks, Risk Journal reports. (free link)
     
  • Chrysler is recalling a group of vehicles over concerns that their electric hydraulic power steering pump wiring may overheat and cause a vehicle fire, even when the vehicle is parked with the ignition in the “Off” position.
     
  • The U.K., Canada, France and Norway are imposing sanctions targeting financial networks and corporate entities they say enable Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. (free link)
     
  • A Texas judge issued a temporary injunction allowing Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby to play despite a lifetime ban for betting on his own team.
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“Magnets are in the technology Americans rely on every day, and right now, China controls over 90% of the supply chain for these critical components.”

— Rep. John Moolenaar, who heads the House Select Committee on China. He and his Democratic Party counterpart introduced new legislation to reshore the U.S. magnet supply chain.
 

Risk

The lost helicopter adds to the list of U.S. aircraft destroyed by accidents and enemy fire during the Iran war. Photo: Ints Kalnins/ZUMA Press

U.S. launches strikes on Iran in response to downed Apache helicopter.

The U.S. launched strikes on Iran Tuesday in retaliation for the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command.

The strikes, which the military said were carried out in self-defense, were directed by President Trump. “The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression,” Centcom said in a statement.

What prompted it? Trump on Tuesday accused Iran of shooting down a U.S. Apache helicopter, kicking off an unprecedented rescue operation and prompting Trump to threaten a response to the incident.

  • Three Days of Clashes Show the Iran Conflict Is Entering a Dangerous New Phase
 
  • U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said retaliatory measures from Canada on U.S. products are a major hurdle thwarting talks between the two countries on a renewed trade pact.
     
  • Anthropic is releasing a next-generation “Mythos-class” model to the general public with guardrails that remove dangerous capabilities related to areas such as cybersecurity and biological research.
     
  • Western companies are pouring money into Brazil’s rare-earth industry, hoping the South American nation can help loosen China’s grip on the minerals used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and advanced weapons.
     
  • The newest Patriot surface-to-air missiles can be fired in seconds, but take more than two years to build and cost around $4 million each. Despite that math, the U.S. and its allies can’t get enough of them.
     
  • Taiwan fired U.S. mobile missile launchers into the strategic waters directly facing China for the first time, sending a message of resolve to Beijing and Washington.
     
  • North Korea’s uranium-enrichment capacity could soon expand by 75% once a new facility reaches full production, a clear signal that leader Kim Jong Un intends to expand his arsenal in defiance of international pressure.
     
  • A developer proposed a temporary housing complex for up to 5,600 workers outside Cheyenne, Wyo., to support a data-center boom. The proposed complex, larger than many Wyoming cities, sparked backlash from residents concerned about their quiet way of life.
     
  • Around 2,000 hospitality workers at Los Angeles’s SoFi Stadium have reached a deal that will likely avert a strike during the World Cup, their union said Tuesday.
     
  • China’s factory-gate inflation accelerated in May as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to drive up energy and commodity costs.
 ‏‏‎ ‎
$55.9 Billion

The size of America's trade deficit in April, almost unchanged from the previous month.

 

What Else Matters

  • The House passed a Republican-led $70 billion immigration-enforcement bill, ending a monthslong stalemate over the slice of federal spending, and funding the contentious operations through the rest of President Trump’s second term.
     
  • SpaceX employees are racing to figure out what to do with their coming bonanzas.
     
  • President Trump’s cultural influence shows signs of waning, with boos at an NBA Finals game and artists exiting a concert series.
     
  • Tech companies are raising billions through equity and bond sales to fund the artificial-intelligence build-out, with Alphabet announcing an $85 billion equity raise.
     
  • Social Security is expected to deplete the fund that helps pay out retirement benefits by late 2032, the program’s trustees said Tuesday.
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About Us

Follow us on X at @WSJRisk. Send tips to our reporters Max Fillion at max.fillion@dowjones.com and Richard Vanderford at richard.vanderford@wsj.com.

You can also reach us by replying to any newsletter, or by emailing our editor David Smagalla at david.smagalla@wsj.com.

 
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