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February 10, 2021 - Brief Issue 151

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University

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Top Headlines

WHO Finishes Preliminary Investigation into Pandemic’s Origins (Health & Science)

Walgreens Vice President Says 60 Percent of Nursing Home Staff Declined Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Vaccines May Become Annual Immunizations, Says Johnson & Johnson CEO (Health & Science)

Study Finds People with Dementia More Likely to Contract Coronavirus (Health & Science)

Vaccines to be Shipped Directly to Community Health Centers (Health & Science)

Polio Vaccinations Drop Off Amid Pandemic (Health & Science)

U.S. Nears Goal of 1.5 Million Vaccinations Per Day (Health & Science)

Mexico’s Shortage of Oxygen Tanks Worsens (Around the World)

Canada’s Trudeau Under Pressure to Speed Vaccine Distribution, Faces Backlash For Using COVAX (Around the World)

England Enacts Tough Border Policies (Around the World)

Japan to Discard Millions of Vaccine Doses Due to Wrong Syringe (Around the World)

House Democrats Reject Plans to Restrict Who Gets Checks (U.S. Government)

Democrats Push Obamacare Expansion as Part of Covid Relief (U.S. Government)

Pandemic Resilient Industries See Job Opening Growth (U.S. Economy)

Co-Working Firms Update Their Business Models (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 27,192,822 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 468,203 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 323,442,507 tests and distributed 62,898,775 vaccine doses, with 43,206,190 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 106,947,844 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,342,355 deaths. At least 59,812,183 people have recovered from the virus.

WHO Finishes Preliminary Investigation into Pandemic’s Origins

After global pressure from the scientific community to open an investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Chinese government recently allowed World Health Organization (WHO) scientists to conduct a 12-day assessment of laboratories, hospitals, disease control centers and markets (NYT, WSJ, Politico). The WHO team concluded that the virus likely originated in animals before jumping to humans and probably did not leak from a laboratory. These conclusions confirm most experts’ big-picture expectations, but some have suggested that the laboratory leak hypothesis in particular deserves more scrutiny (WaPo). The WHO team also gave credence to an idea pushed by Chinese officials that the virus could have spread to humans through shipments of frozen food, a theory about which experts have been largely skeptical.

Researchers identified the Huanan Seafood Market as one area where the virus began to spread rapidly in December 2019. However, because the virus was also beginning to spread in other places, it is impossible to determine how the virus came to the market or whether it originated there. The earliest known case, from December 8, 2019, reportedly was not associated with the market. Some officials have urged continued inquiry into the origins of the pandemic, saying that 12 days is insufficient to conduct a thorough investigation. Some authorities in Western countries have also questioned the rigor and independence of the WHO investigation, saying that Chinese officials have been trying to control the story.

Walgreens Vice President Says 60 Percent of Nursing Home Staff Declined Covid-19 Vaccine

Despite high demand for Covid-19 vaccines around the country, not everyone is enthusiastic to be immunized. One group that has been somewhat surprisingly reticent is nursing home staff. Although workers at long-term care facilities were given top priority for vaccination, many of them have refused. Walgreens Senior Vice President Rick Gates said that about 60 percent of the staff declined vaccination, in contrast to about 20 percent of the residents (CNBC). Walgreens and CVS Health have been leading the vaccination effort in nursing homes around the country. Gates said the decline rate among workers was higher than expected. Though the demand for Covid-19 vaccines around the country far exceeds the supply right now, officials expect that vaccine hesitancy will become a bigger challenge as the rollout proceeds. Ending the pandemic, experts say, will require the majority of the population to be vaccinated, and convincing reluctant people to get the shots is likely to be a concern for pharmacies and community clinics going forward.

Covid-19 Vaccines May Become Annual Immunizations, Says Johnson & Johnson CEO

Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky said on Tuesday that Covid-19 vaccinations could become an annual event, much like flu shots (CNBC). Experts have said the virus is likely to become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate, much like influenza or measles. As the virus spreads, it also acquires random mutations. Some of these mutations may help the virus evade current vaccines, requiring updated vaccines to continue protecting the population. Though some coronavirus variants have already acquired mutations that make them slightly less susceptible to vaccines, it is still too early to tell for sure what the future vaccination schedule might look like.  

U.S. Study Finds People with Dementia More Likely to Contract Coronavirus

A study out of Case Western University recently found that people with dementia are much more likely to contract Covid-19 than those without the disease (NYT, USA Today). The study, published Tuesday in the medical journal Alzheimer’s & Dementia, analyzed electronic health records of 61.9 million adults 18 years of age and older. The report said that, after adjusting for age, sex, race and other risk factors, people with dementia were twice as likely to contract the virus as those without dementia. The study also found demographic disparities: Black dementia patients were almost three times as likely to contract the coronavirus as White dementia patients. The study found that patients with dementia were also more likely to be hospitalized as a result of Covid-19 or to die from their symptoms, risks which were again elevated in Black patients.

Vaccines to be Shipped Directly to Community Health Centers

The Biden administration has indicated that it will soon begin shipping Covid-19 vaccines directly to certain community health centers in an effort to better serve vulnerable populations (WaPo, Fox). The program will send 1 million vaccine doses to health centers, aiming to reach homeless populations, migrant workers, people who speak limited English and other hard-to-reach groups. The initial phase of the program will involve 250 community health centers and will scale up over time to include as many as 1,400 centers around the country.

Polio Vaccinations Drop Off Amid Pandemic

The Wall Street Journal reports on declining polio vaccinations and what that could signal for Covid-19 immunization efforts. In most of the world, polio has been eradicated. A few isolated regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan remained, and infectious disease experts had hoped that polio vaccinations would successfully eliminate the main form of the virus in 2020. However, due to the pandemic, medical workers were forced to halt their door-to-door vaccination campaigns. The road to elimination of the polio virus had been rocky, and in recent years misinformation contributed to a growing resistance to vaccination. Despite this, in 2018, polio was detected in just 13 percent of sewer samples in Pakistan. By late 2020, that number rose to 74 percent, indicating a more widespread threat. The elimination of polio in most of the world gives hope for the possibilities within a successful vaccination effort. However, a successful campaign will depend on battling misinformation, addressing mistrust of medical institutions and communicating on a community level.

Ford Motor Co. to Produce Clear N95 Face Masks

Ford Motor Co. is set to begin mass production of clear N95 masks in an effort to offer medical-grade protection while also improving communication (WaPo). Jim Baumbick, the vice president in charge of personal protective equipment manufacturing, explained that traditional masks can make workplace interactions more difficult, particularly for those who rely on lip reading. Reading facial expressions is also an important part of many jobs, and masks often take away this form of nonverbal communication. Ford has been producing pandemic-related equipment since March in its Project Apollo, an initiative that paired Ford engineers with health officials to produce products such as masks, ventilators, and air filtration systems. The transparent N95 masks will be available this spring and will be washable and feature anti-fog technology.

U.S. Nears Goal of 1.5 Million Vaccinations Per Day

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. administered an average of 1.49 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines each day for the last week (NYT). The statistic brings the U.S. to the threshold of President Biden’s stated goal of 1.5 million vaccines administered per day. As more and more people get vaccinated, however, states are saying their supplies are running low, potentially slowing future progress. In addition to trying to vaccinate people as quickly as possible, states are also under pressure to address racial disparities in their vaccine rollouts and must balance speed with equity.

Researchers Test “Pancoronavirus” Vaccine Designed to Protect Against Many Coronaviruses

While the speedy development of Covid-19 vaccines has made history, some researchers believe there could be a better way to protect against the novel coronavirus and its relatives: a so-called “pancoronavirus” vaccine. Coronaviruses were originally known primarily for causing the common cold. The virus family attracted increased attention from researchers after the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2002, caused by a coronavirus termed SARS-CoV. In 2012, another coronavirus called MERS-CoV caused another outbreak of deadly respiratory illnesses.

Both epidemics were quickly contained, but some researchers began to explore the characteristics of these vaccines and moved to develop vaccines against them. Some of their studies – in particular, insights into a protein on the surface of the virus called the spike protein – helped vaccine developers move quickly to create effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Now, some virologists are working on a pancoronavirus vaccine – a vaccine that would protect not just against a single virus, but against future deadly coronaviruses (NYT).

Researchers at Caltech are working on one such vaccine. The researchers created nanoparticles containing fragments of spike proteins from eight different coronaviruses and injected the nanoparticles into mice. After the injections, the mice generated antibodies against all eight coronaviruses, as well as to four coronaviruses that were not used in the vaccine. The study was published last month in the journal Science. Other groups are working on similar projects as well as exploring different approaches to a pancoronavirus vaccine. Though the vaccines are in the very early stages of development, researchers hope they may safeguard against new coronavirus epidemics and pandemics in the years to come. Dr. Daniel Hoft, a virologist at Saint Louis University, said that the teams are preparing for an event that is “very likely going to happen again.”

Bonus Read: “Colleges Vowed a Safer Spring. Then Students, and Variants, Arrived,” (NYT).

Around the World

Americas 

Mexico’s Shortage of Oxygen Tanks Worsens

As Mexico began to battle its second wave of coronavirus, demand for oxygen exploded, creating a national shortage of the treatment used in many severely ill cases of Covid-19. As demand outstripped supply and overwhelmed hospitals sent patients away, prices spiked and a black market was born as organized criminal groups began hijacking trucks filled with oxygen tanks and stealing them at gunpoint (NYT). Now, family members of sick patients are scrambling around the city trying to find purified oxygen and oxygen tanks in order to keep their sick loved ones alive, often waiting in long lines and dealing with amateur oxygen sellers. “Oxygen right now is like water,” said Alejandro Castillo, a doctor who works at a public hospital in Mexico City. “It’s vital.” According to the New York Times,  the “smallest tank in Mexico can cost more than $800, up to 10 times more than in countries like the United States. The oxygen to fill it up costs about $10 — and can last as little as six hours.”

Canada’s Trudeau Under Pressure to Speed Vaccine Distribution, Faces Backlash For Using COVAX

The Canadian government has been accused of taking Covid vaccines and supplies intended for developing nations and is facing harsh criticism for its slow distribution of the coronavirus vaccine. Last week, the federal government announced it would draw on COVAX, a mechanism created to fairly distribute Covid-19 vaccine doses around the world, for its supply of the AstraZeneca vaccine (Guardian). Even though Canada is entitled to receive shots through COVAX, the move prompted accusations of “double-dipping” because the government had already made a series of direct deals with pharmaceutical companies. “Turning to Covax demonstrates the desperation of the Trudeau government in terms of its vaccine policy,” said Jillian Kohler, a University of Toronto professor focused on global access to medicines. “Taking [vaccine supply] from a multilateral institution that was designed particularly to help the world’s poor is shocking and an embarrassment.” But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended the move, explaining that half of Canada’s $C440 million investment was set aside for domestic supply; he said “Our contribution was always intended to access vaccine doses for Canadians as well as to support lower-income countries.” Canada has only vaccinated 2.38% of its population, one of the lowest rates among developed nations, due to a shortage of vaccine doses and a lack of domestic production capabilities. 

Europe

England Enacts Tough Border Policies

Anyong who arrives in England and lies about a recent visit to a country on the British government’s travel ban list will now face up to 10 years in prison under new border policies announced on Tuesday (AP). Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that from Monday, residents of the U.K. and Ireland arriving in England from the places on the government’s “red list” will have to purchase a “quarantine package” that costs 1,750 pounds ($2,400) per person and covers accommodation, virus testing, and other related items. Individuals who do not abide by the rules, including those arriving from a red list country without a hotel booked, also could be subject to a series of fines, he said. “I make no apologies for the strength of these measures because we’re dealing with one of the strongest threats to our public health that we’ve faced as a nation,” Hancock told lawmakers. “People who flout these rules are putting us all at risk.” There are currently 33 countries from where travel to England is banned, including South Africa, Portugal, and all of South America. British and Irish citizens and U.K. residents are still allowed to enter but must self-isolate for 10 days after their arrival at a hotel and must be tested on days two and eight of their quarantine period. The U.K. has the highest death toll in Europe, with 113,850 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Asia

Japan to Discard Millions of Vaccine Doses Due to Wrong Syringe

Japan has secured 144 million doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine but does not have enough of the specialized syringes needed to draw six shots from each vial, meaning millions of people will not receive the vaccine as planned. Standard syringes in use in Japan are unable to extract the sixth and final does from each vial, according to health minister Norihisa Tamura (Guardian). The 144 million shots should be enough for 72 million people with each recipient getting two shots given three weeks apart. But the shortage of specialized syringes, which have narrow plungers to push out any leftover vaccine, means that Japanese health workers will only be able to get five doses per vial, decreasing the number of people to be vaccinated to only 60 million. The government is requesting medical equipment manufacturers to increase production of the specialized syringes, but in the meantime, “We will use all the syringes we have that can draw six doses, but it will, of course, not be enough as more shots are administered,” Tamura said.

U.S. Government & Politics

House Democrats Reject Plans to Restrict Who Gets Checks

On Monday night, House Democrats rejected proposals to further restrict who would receive direct checks under the Democrats’ proposed Covid relief bill (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “House Ways and Means Chairman Richard E. Neal (D-Mass.) released legislation that would send the full stimulus payment to individuals earning $75,000 per year and couples earning $150,000 per year. Congressional Democrats had explored curtailing that benefit to $50,000 for individuals and $100,000 for married couples, a position embraced by Sen. Joe Manchin III, a conservative Democrat from West Virginia.” The decision to reject such restrictions is, as the Post notes, further evidence that the Democrats plan to try and push Covid relief through reconciliation potentially on a party line vote. However, as we have covered in previous briefs there remains an open question whether enough Democrats in the Senate will agree to the direct provision of checks without eligibility restrictions.

Democrats Push Obamacare Expansion as Part of Covid Relief

The Covid relief bill released by House Democrats on Monday includes a proposed expansion of benefits under Obamacare (Politico). If passed, it would be the first expansion of such subsidies in a decade. Politico reports, “Democrats are hoping that the beefed up subsidies, combined with Biden’s recent executive order to reopen the ACA's markets and advertise heavily to entice people to enroll, will make a major dent in the ranks of uninsured Americans that have grown during the pandemic and ensuing economic recession.” Politico explains, “The bill, which the Ways and Means Committee will mark up later this week, would fully subsidize ACA coverage for people earning up to 150 percent of the federal poverty level and those on unemployment insurance. It also ends the so-called subsidy cliff for people making over 400 percent of the federal poverty level, making them eligible for subsidies for the first time and capping their premium costs at 8.5 percent of income. The subsidy boosts would only last for two years, though Congress later could vote to extend them or make them permanent.”

U.S. Economy

Pandemic Resilient Industries See Job Opening Growth

Pandemic resilient industries increasingly publicized job openings in January (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The number of help-wanted ads returned to pre-pandemic levels in January, particularly among industries that have weathered the pandemic relatively well, a sign that hiring could pick up from its sluggish pace at the start of the year. Available jobs on job-search site Indeed were up 0.7% at the end of January from Feb. 1, 2020, according to the company’s measure of job posting trends. The number of postings to the site has grown since hitting a low in May, though the pace of new openings has slowed in recent months, Indeed said.” Technology and finance firms in particular have increasingly posted high wage positions. The Journal also notes, “A separate report from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed job openings rose modestly to 6.6 million in December. The total narrowly exceeded both the number of available jobs in November and from a year earlier. Job openings in December were still well below the number of people who were unemployed and seeking work, 10.7 million that month.”

Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Mortgage Relief Ends Soon for Millions of Homeowners,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Co-Working Firms Update Their Business Models

The pandemic has hit co-working space firms hard as many people shift to remote work, but many firms are updating their business models, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The original strategy, popularized by WeWork and many of its peers, involved leasing as much office space in city centers as possible, and then effectively subletting it to companies for a profit. This approach led to spectacular growth and sent WeWork’s valuation soaring to $47 billion. With the majority of office employees still working from home during Covid-19, demand has plummeted. But co-working firms remain on the hook for the expensive long-term leases they signed during the boom years, and many are struggling to meet these obligations. Knotel Inc. became the industry’s biggest victim yet of this mismatch when it filed for Chapter-11 bankruptcy last month.” According to the Journal, the industry is increasingly shifting to a revenue sharing rather than a sub-leasing model with those companies that have not shifted falling behind.

Analysis & Arguments

Joe Pinsker writes on how the pandemic may change how people arrange their homes (Atlantic).

Keeanga Yamahtta-Taylor writes on what’s at stake in the debate over school reopenings (New Yorker).

Ishaan Tharoor wonders if the world underestimated Russia’s vaccine (WaPo).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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