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October 13, 2020 - Brief Issue 103

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Hits Two-Month High for Daily Covid Cases; 31 States Report Increase in Cases; CDC Projects at Least 224,000 Total Deaths by End of October (Health & Science)

First Confirmed Covid-19 Reinfection Case in North America (Health & Science)

WHO Cautions Against Lockdown Policies as Cases Surge (Around the World)

Cuba Relaxes Public Health Restrictions (Around the World)

England Has More Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Than In March (Around the World)

Intensive Care in France Reaches May Levels (Around the World)

China To Test Nine Million People Amid Qingdao Outbreak (Around the World)

All State Hospitals in Kathmandu To Be Converted Into Covid-19 Centers (Around the World)

Malaysia To Restrict Movement Amid Coronavirus Spike (Around the World)

White House Physician Reports Trump Tested Negative for Covid; Trump Returns to Campaign Trail, Plans to Hold Rallies; Major News Outlets Refuse to Assign Reporters to Travel with Trump Citing Safety Concerns (U.S. Government & Politics)

Senator Mike Lee Reports Being Cleared by Capitol Physician, Appears in Person at Supreme Court Nomination Hearings, Despite Recent Covid Infection (U.S. Government & Politics)

OSHA Closes More than Half of Worker Complaints of Retaliation for Raising Coronavirus Concerns Without Investigation (U.S. Economy)

DC Housing Market Surges as National Market Proves Resilient to Covid-19 (U.S. Economy)

Two Months Into School Year, Concern About Insufficient Tracking of Coronavirus Risk as Some Initial Data Encouraging About Reopenings (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,804,643 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 215,089 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,106,728 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 116,428,059 tests. Worldwide, there have been 37,841,551 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,081,332 deaths. At least 26,301,404 people have recovered from the virus. 

U.S. Hits Two-Month High for Daily Covid Cases; 31 States Report Increase in Cases; CDC Projects at Least 224,000 Total Deaths by End of October

The United States reported its highest numbers of new Covid-19 cases since August, peaking at 57,420 cases on Friday and reporting over 50,000 cases per day for four days in a row late last week (Johns Hopkins, Reuters). Ten states, primarily in the West and Midwest, reported record increases on Friday (Reuters). Across the country, 31 states reported increases in coronavirus cases last week compared to the week before, with most of the rest reporting steady numbers (CNN).

Despite recent increases in case numbers, reported deaths are down since September (CNN). This week’s CDC ensemble forecast, an aggregate of multiple independent models, shows some uncertainty in its predictions for the rest of October, estimating the total reported deaths at anywhere from 224,000 to 233,000 by the end of the month. Public health experts continue to urge caution over the fall and winter months, warning that the death toll could reach 400,000 by February if the virus is not controlled through continued social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing (CNN).

First Confirmed Covid-19 Reinfection Case in North America 

In a case study published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet, scientists confirmed that a Nevada man contracted Covid-19 twice, with the second bout of illness being more severe than the first. Although the man experienced only mild symptoms when he first contracted the virus in March, he required hospitalization and continued oxygen support after his symptoms resurfaced in May. According to the report, the second illness was a true case of reinfection, rather than simply a case of latent symptoms resurfacing. Although reinfection seems to be rare – this case study constitutes only the fourth report of reinfection – questions remain about long-term immunity from the virus (BBC, NPR).

Confirmation of reinfection is a difficult undertaking, requiring genome sequencing and analysis of nasal swabs from both infections (NPR). As a result, most such cases likely go unreported, making it difficult to assess the frequency of reinfection. Dr. Mark Pandori, Director of the Nevada State Public Health Laboratory and principal investigator on the case study, believes there is much to be learned about Covid-19 immunity and cautions that even recovered individuals should continue to follow public health guidelines such as distancing, wearing masks and frequent hand washing (BBC). 

Study Finds That Covid-19 Can Survive Up to 28 Days on Non-Porous Surfaces

A study performed by CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, found that Covid-19 survives on smooth, non-porous surfaces for up to 28 days, longer than previously thought (Reuters). Materials tested included plastic banknotes, glass screens and stainless steel surfaces. By comparison, the virus responsible for flu infections survives in similar conditions for only 17 days.

Notably, the study was performed in dark conditions to eliminate the effects of UV light. Because UV light shortens the lifespan of the virus, it is likely that the virus would not survive as long in non-laboratory conditions. The scientists also found that temperature was critical: while the virus survived for 28 days at 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit), survival time dropped at higher temperatures.

The Australian study highlights the importance of handwashing, avoiding touching one’s face, and regular sanitization practices. However, most experts agree that the risk of surface transmission of Covid-19 is low, with infection primarily spreading through respiratory droplets (BBC). Dr. Ron Eccles, former director of the Common Cold Centre at Cardiff University, explains that Covid-19 is transmitted through mucus droplets, which contain antibodies that work to neutralize the virus. By contrast, the study used an artificial mucus free from antibodies. “In my opinion,” Eccles commented, “infectious virus will only persist for hours in mucus on surfaces rather than days.” While individuals should take care to follow all health guidelines, the most important measures still include physical distancing and wearing a mask in public spaces.

Use of Shark Liver Oil in Vaccine Development Troubles Conservationists

According to the nonprofit conservation group Shark Allies, the race to develop a vaccine for Covid-19 may pose a danger to shark populations around the world (NPR). The culprit is a compound called squalene, found in shark livers and sometimes used in vaccines as an immune response booster. The group estimates that half a million sharks could be killed if a vaccine using the adjuvant is approved. Although there are readily available non-animal sources of squalene, shark squalene is commonly used because of its low cost and high yield. Shark Allies urges use of sustainable alternatives to shark-derived squalene in order to preserve delicate ecosystems. Currently the group estimates that five of 193 vaccines in clinical or pre-clinical testing use shark squalene as an ingredient. 

Around the World

WHO Cautions Against Lockdown Policies as Cases Surge

With Covid-19 cases again swinging upward in the U.S. and Europe, many leaders are considering measures to contain the virus. In contrast to their recommendations at the start of the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not recommend restrictive lockdown policies as a means for containment (WSJ, NY Post). The WHO cites undue economic burden on citizens, particularly poorer citizens, as well as concerns over lack of compliance from the public. Instead, the UN agency recommends increased testing and contact tracing, as well as continued adherence to public health guidelines such as wearing a mask and maintaining physical distancing. In the United Kingdom, where numbers continue to rise, leaders have taken a measured approach, recommending targeted restrictions on hotspots rather than imposing widespread shutdowns (WaPo)

The Americas

Cuba Relaxes Public Health Restrictions 

The Cuban government announced a relaxation of public health restrictions on Monday in a bid to pump life into its economy after seven months of heightened restrictions. The beach resort town of Varadero will reopen to foreign tourists on Thursday, albeit with all visitors receiving mandatory testing and monitoring. Shops and government offices are also expected to reopen this week. Havana, however, will continue to maintain tight rules as the virus continues to spread in the capital. Masks will also continue to be mandatory nationwide. The move comes as the collapse of the nation’s $3 billion tourist industry, a crucial source of revenue and hard currency, continues to wreak havoc on the country’s economy. Gross domestic product is expected to fall more than eight percent this year. New sanctions from the Trump administration unveiled last month are also expected to take their toll on the Cuban economy. Since the pandemic’s start, Cuba has tallied 5,883 coronavirus cases and 123 deaths (AP).

Europe

England Has More Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Than In March

England’s current number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients is higher than it was just before public health restrictions were introduced on March 23, said the national medical director of England’s state hospital system. "If infections continue to rise, in four more weeks they could be treating more patients than they were in the peak of the first wave,” said Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, adding that hospitals in the north and northwest have seen a sevenfold increase in the number of patients needing intensive care over the past four weeks. Van Tam, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, added that increased case numbers in the north are “almost certainly” a result of the fact that coronavirus levels "never dropped as far ... as they did in the south” during the summer months (Politico). BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle said that while the rise in cases is alarming, it needs to be put into perspective when comparing the current situation to March. “The number of daily new admissions is on an upward trend, doubling every fortnight at the moment, said Triggle. “But, compare that to the spring, and the picture is somewhat different. The numbers being admitted were exploding then - doubling every few days and threatening to overwhelm hospitals everywhere,” he added. Nationwide, the UK saw 13,972 new coronavirus cases on Monday (BBC).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday also unveiled a new three-tiered rules system for England to identify and combat the spread of coronavirus hotspots. The highest tier, which thus far includes Liverpool and the surrounding regions, requires the closure of bars and pubs and a ban on household mixing. “This is not how we want to live our lives, but this is the narrow path we have to tread between the social and economic trauma of a full lockdown and the massive human, and indeed economic cost of an uncontained epidemic,” said Johnson (Guardian).

Intensive Care in France Reaches May Levels

The number of French Covid-19 patients being treated in intensive care has exceeded 1,500 people for the first time since May. The new figure of 1,539 is the highest since May 27, although almost five times lower than the April 8 record of 7,148 patients. As more people are normally admitted to hospitals in the autumn than in the spring, experts fear that the current growth of cases will overwhelm health care infrastructure as doctors struggle to treat Covid-19 patients alongside seasonal illnesses. The rising case count rise is also generating concerns that economically difficult lockdowns will return to France. Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Monday that local lockdowns cannot be ruled out as a “strong" second wave continues to spread. More news is expected on Wednesday when President Emmanuel Macron addresses the nation (France 24).

Bonus Reads: “Russia Recruits Rare Dogs to Sniff Out Coronavirus as Second Wave Tightens Grip,” (Moscow Times); “Second Wave of Covid-19 in Europe Leads To New Restrictions But No National Lockdowns,” (WaPo).

Asia-Pacific

China To Test Nine Million People Amid Qingdao Outbreak

Authorities in China plan to test all nine million people in the city of Qingdao after a local cluster broke a 55-day nationwide streak of no local transmission. Testing began Sunday night, according to the city’s health authority, and should be completed by the end of the week. “With the active cooperation of the general public, community testing is speeding up. The five urban districts of Shinan, Shibei, Licang, Laoshan and Chengyang will be complete within three days, and the whole population will be tested within five days,” the Qingdao Health Commission said in a statement on Monday. The cluster was detected on Saturday when a 58-year-old man was admitted to the Qingdao Chest Hospital and tested positive for the coronavirus. Another 11 people connected to the hospital tested positive over the weekend. The source of the outbreak remains unclear. Other Chinese cities over the past several months have dealt with similar local clusters, including Beijing, Dalian, Harbin, Urumqi and Jilin. In each case, aggressive testing and public health restrictions contained the spread (South China Morning Post).

All State Hospitals in Kathmandu To Be Converted Into Covid-19 Centers

All state-run hospitals in Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley will be converted to Covid-19 wards, health authorities announced Monday. Apart from emergency surgeries, no other health care will be offered at any public hospital in the Nepalese capital, Dr Samir Kumar Adhikari, joint spokesperson for the Health MInistry, told the Kathmandu Post on Monday. “Earlier, we had asked all the hospitals to allocate 20 percent beds for Covid-19 patients, but with the rise in new cases, we need more beds. So we have decided to ask all state-run hospitals of the Valley to focus on treatment of Covid-19 patients,” said Adhikari. With all speciality hospitals included in the decision, such as maternity and mental health centers, the availability of crucial but non-emergency medicine will only be offered at private hospitals in the capital of one of Asia’s poorest countries. Although Nepal managed to weather the first several months of the pandemic with few cases, infections began rising in August before seeing a sudden spike at the beginning of October. The country reported 4,047 new cases on Monday, with more than half in Kathmandu. A total of 111,802 people in Nepal have tested positive for the coronavirus since the pandemic’s beginning, including 645 fatal cases (Kathmandu Post).

Malaysia To Restrict Movement Amid Coronavirus Spike

Parts of Malaysia, including the capital, will see new restrictions on movement for two weeks from October 14, the government announced Monday, as the country attempts to neutralize a recent coronavirus spike. The decision applies to the entire Klang Valley, home to Kuala Lumpur and the federal administrative center Putrajaya, as well as Sabah, where the restrictions went into effect one day earlier than elsewhere. Districts within the impacted zones will be isolated from one another, with people only allowed to travel between them for work purposes and with employee identification. Schools, entertainment venues and places of worship will also close, while sporting events and weddings will be forbidden. Most businesses, however, will be permitted to remain open in the Klang Valley. Sabah has adopted stricter rules, with all small and medium businesses requiring permission to operate (Malaysiakini). As we have noted before, Malaysia had fared relatively well during the pandemic’s early months until case numbers began spiking in September. The nation saw a record of 691 new cases on October 6, before dropping and rising again to 563 infections on Monday. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said last week that he was not yet considering nationwide restrictions as they “could lead to the collapse of the social and economic systems of the country” (Straits Times).

U.S. Government & Politics

White House Physician Reports Trump Tested Negative for Covid; Trump Returns to Campaign Trail, Plans to Hold Rallies; Major News Outlets Refuse to Assign Reporters to Travel with Trump Citing Safety Concerns

On Monday, White House Physician Sean Conley announced that Trump had tested negative for Covid on consecutive days and asserted he was no longer contagious (WaPo, CNN, CNBC). Conley wrote in a memo tweeted by the White House Press Secretary that, “In response to your inquiry regarding the President's most recent Covid-19 tests, I can share with you that he has tested NEGATIVE, on consecutive days, using the Abbott BinaxNOW antigen card.” CNN, however, notes that it is “unclear on which consecutive days Trump tested negative -- and the Abbott BinaxNOW test might not be completely accurate. It's only been validated in people within the first seven days of symptom onset. Trump, who first announced he tested positive on Thursday, October 1, is more than 10 days out, and the US Food and Drug Administration has said it does not know how accurate the test is at that point.”

The announcement of Trump’s consecutive negative tests comes as Trump is returning to the campaign trail, having scheduled three rallies for this week (NYT, CNBC, NPR). The rallies include one in Florida held yesterday, one scheduled for today in Pennsylvania, and a rally in Iowa on Wednesday. Over the weekend, he spoke at a public event at the White House, although he spoke for less time than usual and The rallies come as Trump has reportedly pushed his team to put him out on the trail every day until the election (Axios). 

Major news outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post have refused to assign reporters to travel with President Trump as he returns to holding rallies, citing concerns over coronavirus (NYT). The Times notes, “At least three White House correspondents have tested positive for the coronavirus in the past two weeks, including a Times reporter who had traveled on Air Force One, Michael D. Shear.” The sources of concern include that: “Many flight attendants and Secret Service agents on Air Force One have not worn masks; White House aides who tested positive for the coronavirus, or were potentially exposed, are returning to work before the end of a two-week quarantine; and the campaign has instituted few restrictions at the raucous rallies that Mr. Trump is now pledging to hold on a regular basis until Election Day.”

Senator Mike Lee Reports Being Cleared by Capitol Physician, Appears in Person at Supreme Court Nomination Hearings, Despite Recent Covid Infection 

On Monday, having tested positive for coronavirus fewer than two weeks prior, Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) appeared in person during Senate Judiciary Committee hearings on Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court (Politico, NPR). Politico writes, “When the Utah Republican arrived in the hearing room Monday morning, he was wearing a blue surgical mask and could be seen fist-bumping his GOP colleagues on the Senate Judiciary Committee. He also briefly exchanged words with White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Lee removed his mask when it was his turn to address the committee with an opening statement, but he immediately put it back on when he finished speaking.” Lee told a local radio station that he was feeling “great” and that he had been cleared by the Capitol physician (Salt Lake Tribune). In a letter released by Lee’s office, the congressional physician wrote that he “met criteria to end Covid-19 isolation for those with mild to moderate disease.” The CDC recommends at least ten days of isolation after a positive test. Lee’s appearance comes as Democrats have pushed for required coronavirus testing for Senators on the committee. Senator Lindsay Graham, the committee’s chairman, rejected those calls, saying, “All I can say is, I don’t know what it’s like at CNN, but you can’t demand that all of your colleagues be tested before you go to work if there’s no reason.” Graham has himself refused to be tested. 

Judge Upholds Wisconsin Mask Mandate

On Monday, a judge upheld Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate (NPR). In his ruling, St. Croix County Judge Michael Waterman ruled that Evers’ had the authority to issue the mandate rejecting the case for an injunction put forward by the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty. The institute argued that the authority to issue such orders was limited to 60 days, but the judge decided that the governor held the authority to repeatedly issue such orders.

Twitter Flags Another Trump Tweet for Coronavirus Misinformation

On Monday, Twitter added a warning label to a tweet by President Trump that spread misinformation regarding coronavirus (CNN, Bloomberg). The warning read, “This Tweet violated the Twitter Rules about spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to Covid-19. However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public’s interest for the Tweet to remain accessible.” The tweet asserted, “A total and complete sign off from White House Doctors yesterday. That means I can’t get it (immune), and can’t give it. Very nice to know!!!.” However, according to the CDC, having had coronavirus does not convey immunity. The CDC guidance released August 14, 2020, states, “Contrary to media reporting today, this science does not imply a person is immune to reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, in the 3 months following infection” (CDC). Facebook has not removed Trump’s identical post on its platform. Both Twitter and Facebook, as we covered in a prior brief, removed another post last week that asserted falsely that flu is more lethal than coronavirus.

U.S. Economy

OSHA Closes More than Half of Worker Complaints of Retaliation for Raising Coronavirus Concerns Without Investigation

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration closes more than half of the complaints it receives from workers regarding retaliation for raising concerns about coronavirus safety without an investigation, according to a report in the Washington Post on Thursday (WaPo). The Post writes, “Data given to The Washington Post on Thursday showed that through the beginning of August, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration had opened up investigations for 348 of 1,744 complaints from workers who said their companies retaliated against them during the pandemic. Fifty-four percent of the complaints were dismissed or closed without investigation, according to the report from the National Employment Law Project (NELP), a worker advocacy group. And just two percent of the total were investigated and resolved.” David Michaels, who ran OSHA under Obama, told the Post, “This is just one more piece of evidence that OSHA is refusing to step up activities in the face of a pandemic which has killed so many workers.” In a statement, OSHA, said, “OSHA is committed to conducting whistleblower investigations in a timely and efficient manner,” adding, “Those related to covid-19 have been consistent with previous investigations, which traditionally are closed within nine months. On average, about 65 to 70 percent of all whistleblower complaints are closed by OSHA for legal reasons. Those related to covid-19 have been consistent with this average.”

DC Housing Market Surges as National Market Proves Resilient to Covid-19

Washington DC’s housing market is surging despite the impact of the pandemic (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “The housing market, particularly in the Washington, D.C., region, was on track for a robust spring. In the first half of March, before the stay-at-home guidelines kicked in, homes were selling fast and the median sales price for the month reached a 10-year high of $490,000. More than half of all homes sold in the region were snapped up in one to 10 days. Even in April, as concern about the novel coronavirus spread, regional home prices were up to a 10-year high for the month, at $507,000, which was also an increase of 6.7 percent over the median sales price in April 2019. Homes were selling for the full asking price or more.” The DC area is widely considered resilient to recession in large part because of the role of the federal jobs in its economy. More broadly, the Post notes, “Nationwide, the housing market is in particularly good shape because demand remains high and mortgage rates are phenomenally low.”

Bonus Read: “Disney Elevates Streaming Business in Major Reorganization,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Two Months Into School Year, Concern About Insufficient Tracking of Coronavirus Risk as Some Initial Data Encouraging About Reopenings

Two months into the school year, a lack of tracking of the impact of reopening and relative risk for spreading coronavirus is sparking concern according to CNN (CNN). Dr. Susan Coffin, professor of pediatric infectious diseases at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia told CNN, “Unfortunately, some of our knowledge is really just derived from anecdote,” adding, “We don't have any good strategies to systematically collect the experience across a swath of the US to actually be able to study the different approaches that have and, in some cases, not worked so well.” Where there has been data collected, some believe the results are encouraging. CNN writes, “To try to fill some of the gaps, Brown University has created a Covid-19 school response dashboard, analyzing data from 1,006 schools with more than 167,000 students and 54,000 staff. So far, just 0.13% of students surveyed have tested positive for Covid-19 and that rises to only 0.24% for teachers. ‘That early data is encouraging,’ said Emily Oster, economist professor at Brown University, who helped create the dashboard.” ​

Analysis & Arguments

Helen Rosner writes on indoor dining in New York (New Yorker).

Emily Oster argues that schools aren’t super spreaders and the threat has been overblown (Atlantic).

Robyn Ross explores how the pandemic is changing the practice of political campaigning (Texas Monthly).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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