Happy New Year! Investors are preparing for a very different Federal Reserve in the year ahead as President Trump has signaled that he is closing in on a pick to be the next central-bank chair while doubling down on his demand for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed minutes released this week show that officials at the last policy meeting said they were reluctant to support more easing in the near future—a sign that further cuts could face resistance at the next meeting this month.

So far, markets have shown few signs of significant concern that the Fed would completely surrender its independence under a new leader picked by President Trump. But investors are still bracing for a central bank marked by unusual division, a potentially weaker chair and the lingering threat of more radical change.

The written record of the Fed’s December meeting showed that most members of the policy committee thought rates could eventually fall further if inflation declines. But while most backed December’s rate cut, some officials “indicated that the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target rate unchanged,” the minutes said.

The November inflation report published last month drew criticism, focused on how the Bureau of Labor Statistics handled gaps in price data caused by the recent government shutdown. On Tuesday, the BLS defended its approach in a Q&A document published to its website, arguing that the agency had no better way to handle a challenging patchwork of missing data.

Standing in the Rose Garden last spring flanked by American flags, President Trump declared war on free trade. Nine months later, instead of crumbling under the highest U.S. tariffs in almost a century, the global trade system has been recast along new lines.

• Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets
• U.S. Slashes Proposed Tariffs on Italian Pasta
• Modi Taps India’s Consumer Power in Trade Fight With Trump

• Jobless Claims Decreased Last Week

• Asian Factory Activity Gauges Signal Growth but Cost Pressures Cloud Recovery

President Trump’s first year back in office turned the world of white-collar enforcement upside down. The Justice Department has stepped back from the kinds of complicated investigations into foreign bribery, money laundering and public corruption that former department leaders often cited among their greatest successes.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board in 2026 will explore whether some cryptocurrency assets may qualify as cash equivalents and how to account for crypto transfers, as the Trump administration bolsters such investments.

• Crypto Investors Celebrated for Most of 2025. Then Came the Hangover.

The FBI is offering $7 million to catch Sim Hyon Sop, whose job U.S. officials say is vital to Kim Jong Un’s regime. Sim is one of several dozen North Korean bankers working abroad who are trying to make sure Pyongyang’s financial needs are met, despite heavy sanctions meant to totally isolate the country, according to U.S. officials.

9:45 a.m.: U.S. Manufacturing PMI
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI

10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI

• The Chicago Business Barometer rebounded in December more than economists expected, but remained at a level indicating contraction.
• The pace of U.S. home price increases kept a slow pace in October, as elevated mortgage rates curb demand.
• South Korea’s headline inflation eased slightly in December but remained above the central bank’s 2% target for a fourth consecutive month.
• Singapore’s economy logged stronger-than-expected growth in 2025 due to expansion across the manufacturing and construction industries.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by Michael Maloney in New York.