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Asia in Review

No. 9, March/2020, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you the first issue of 'Asia in Review’ (AiR) in March providing you an update on the latest important events and developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Law prohibiting “spreading rumors” in force

(dql) Amid mounting criticism of the Chinese government suppressing information in the context of the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 [South China Morning Post], regulations came into effect on Sunday that allows only internet postings with what is called “encouraged” content about the country while banning “illegal” and “harmful” content. The latter categories include among others “spreading of rumors" and "sensationalizing headlines" as well as any "other content with a negative impact to the online information ecosystem". [Business Insider] [Cyberspace Administration, China, for the law in Chinese] [China Law Translate, for an inofficial English translation of the law]

China/Hong Kong: Protest violence reoccurs

(dql) After a period of relative calm since the outbreak of the coronavirus, violence reoccurred in Hong Kong during an anti-government rally past weekend when hundreds of protesters clashed with the police. [Reuters]

In an earlier development, a Hong Kong pro-democracy publishing tycoon and outspoken critic of Beijing, believed to be a major financial supporter of the anti-government protests, was arrested on charges of participating in an unauthorized assembly last August. [New York Times]

Amnesty International criticized the arrest as a “politically motivated” move to “suppress opposition voices”. [Amnesty International]

South Korea: President Moon under pressure over COVID-19

(dql/ef) President Moon Jae-in is facing mounting pressure after more than 800,000 people in South Korea have signed a petition calling for his impeachment over the government’s alleged failure to handle COVID-19 in the country. [Asia News Network]

In a related development, South Korea’s parliament passed amendments to the country's Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Act, the Quarantine Act and the Medical Services Act to strengthen the government’s responses to COVID-19. Among others, the revisions allow for an increase of personnel in health and welfare ministry officials, restrictions on exports of medicine, medical equipment and other key materials necessary for quarantine and treatment, and sentencing patients disobeying quarantine or hospitalization orders to up one year in jail. [Korea Times]

Meanwhile, due to almost 60% of all Covid-19 infections in South Korea being linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Seoul’s city government has filed a criminal complaint asking the Seoul Central District Prosecutor’s Office to investigate the chief director of  the church and twelve others on charges of murder and disease control act violations Seoul’s mayor has alleged that the church failed to work with health authorities and to take adequate preventative measures. The church rejected the claims as based on “stigmatization, hatred and slander” [Reuters] [CNBC]

South Korea currently has the highest number of infections outside mainland China. [CNN]

Taiwan: Declassification of political archives of 228 and ‘White Terror’  

(dql) In her speech commemorating the 228 Incident, an anti-government uprising in Taiwan which was violently suppressed by the Kuomintang-led Republic of China government in 1947 [AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4], President Tsai Ing-wen vowed to further push for transitional justice and ordered the National Security Bureau to declassify political files related to 228 and the subsequent authoritarian  period of the ‘White Terror’ by end of March and to make them accessible to an investigation committee. Exempted are only a few files defined by the law as being security sensitive. [Taiwan News]

In an earlier move last week, Taiwan's Transitional Justice Commission launched an online database containing curated court files of almost 10,000 victims of political persecution during the martial law period as well as names of military officers involved in the victims’ court trials. [Focus Taiwan]

Taiwan: Bill on disclosure of personal information of quarantine offenders passed

(dql) Taiwan's parliament last week passed a bill containing a provision which allows disclosing personal information of violators of coronavirus quarantine rules.

Other provisions of the law increase the penalties to a substantial extent for breaking quarantine regulations on home quarantine or home isolation terms. Driving up the prices of supplies related to disease prevention or hoarding such supplies could be punished with prison terms of up to five years while the sentence for spreading false information regarding the virus could be imprisonment up to three years. [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: New Delhi’s worst sectarian violence in decades

(tk/ls) Since the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) brought in by Modi’s government in December, widespread deadly protests have continued until today. Despite assurance from government and police officials that the situation was under control, the death toll continued to rise sharply and reached at least 47 deaths. More than 350 people have been injured. [Al Jazeera] The majority of them are Muslims, though several Hindus – including members of the security services – are among them as well. [CBS News]

The latest clashes started in Delhi on Sunday, the eve of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first state visit to India. [Asia in Review No. 8, February/2020] Since that day, gangs of Hindus and Muslims have clashed with crude weapons and homemade guns. Numerous homes, shops and cars have been set aflame. [The New York Times]

India’s Prime Minster Narendra Modi, who hosted President Trump’s visit, has been criticized for not acting on time, and the police has been accused of failing to stop those aggression against Muslims, while, according to India’s Supreme Court, they could have saved lives. The U.S. government’s Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) urged the Indian government to “take serious efforts to protect Muslims and other targeted by mob violence.” [CBS News] [Al Jazeera]

This situation even led to large protests in Bangladesh, where thousands of Muslims on Friday protested against Bangladesh Prime Minster Sheikh Hasina’s plan to invite India’s Prime Minister Modi to a commemoration next month on the 100th birth anniversary of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first president of the nation who is called the father of Bangladesh. [OpIndia]

Also, Indonesia urged India to protect Muslims and not harm them over differences in faith. Indonesian Minister or Religion Affairs condemned the recent attacks as “inhumane and contrary to religious values”. [AA]

Observers have described the incidents as targeted violence against Muslims, led by Hindu nationalists, rather than mere rioting or communal violence, and view Modi’s hardline politics as a main source of the climate of violence. [The Guardian]

India: Data protection bill in the spotlight over violence in New Delhi

(ls) Reports of persons who targeted Muslim-owned vehicles for arson in New Delhi by first looking up their license plate numbers on an online government database have sparked new discussions about the currently debated data protection bill. The draft law contains, for example, a provision allowing the government to exempt any of its agencies from following the law for reasons including "the interest of sovereignty and integrity of India" and "friendly relations with foreign states". Companies and activists also fear that while companies have to hand over "anonymized" personal data to the government when asked, there are not enough protections against possible leaks, creation of super-databases or possible surveillance. [Straits Times]

Pakistan: Internet companies threaten to leave the country over strict rules

(ls) Major internet companies, including Facebook, Google and Twitter, have threatened to leave Pakistan over the strict censorship rules due to be implemented by the government. Among other controversial content, the rules would give local authorities the power to demand social media platforms remove any content they deem questionable within 24 hours. The Asia Internet Coalition (AIC) stated, "as no other country has announced such a sweeping set of rules, Pakistan risks becoming a global outlier.” [ZDNet]

Sri Lanka: President Rajapaksa dissolves parliament and calls parliamentary elections

(tk/ls) On Monday, Sri Lanka’s president Gotabaya Rajapaksa made use of his constitutional powers and dissolved parliament six months early with effect from midnight on March 2, 2020. The constitution gives this power from the completion of four and a half years of a five-year term. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was elected president last November, leads a minority government with his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister. He justifies this action saying that he couldn’t work freely because his powers have been reduced, as the opposition commands a majority in parliament. The election for the new parliament will be held on 25 April 2020, and the new parliament will be summoned to meet on 14 May 2020. [Al Jazeera] [Colombo Page]

It is widely expected that Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, or People's Front) party will win the polls comfortably. The opposition’s main goal may therefore be to prevent the SLPP from securing a two-thirds majority, which would allow for constitutional changes. [Straits Times]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysia swears in new PM amid ongoing political uproar

(jk) Following on from the political turmoil that has started to unfold last week in Malaysia  [Air No.8 Feb,2020,4], on Sunday afternoon, Muhyiddin Yassin of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party BERSATU was sworn in by Malaysia's King as the country's eights Prime Minister. The ceremony took place despite claims by his predecessor Mahathir - of the same party - that he in fact still has the confidence of a majority in parliament and should therefore be re-appointed.  [Nikkei Asian Review]

Muhyiddin's premiership comes as a surprise not only to Mahathir. Muhyiddin, a conservative Malay nationalist, was at no point considered a potential successor of the prime minister after Mahathir's resignation last Monday amidst an ongoing political feud over the designation of his successor and old time rival Anwar Ibrahim. However, MPs from BERSATU - a party Mahathir allegedly no longer chairs [The Star], nominated Muhyiddin Yassin to become PM and the King acted swiftly by appointing him without giving Mahathir the opportunity to prove his own majority support.

Crucially, the decision returns the reigns of government to the tarnished UMNO (United Malays National Organization) and the Malaysian Islamic Party PAS, who had already agreed to cooperate back in September last year, ending over 40 years of enmity. [Asia in Review No. 38, September/2019, 3] The parties have now said they back the new PM's coalition, less than two years after Barisan Nasional's historic defeat by Pakatan Harapan.

Their return to power of course comes without any participation by the Malaysian voter, an issue many perceive as a clear break of the democratic processes in Malaysia. The return by UMNO together with PAS and with a figure such as Muhyiddin at the helm, causes worry in particular for many who belong to ethnic and religious minority groups and fear an increasingly strong Malay hold on the government and a return of over-boarding ethno-nationalist policies.

Former PM Mahathir is now gearing up for a way to prove Muhyiddin does not command the majority of parliament, for example by tabling a no-confidence vote which could lead to a different PM or snap elections after which he could return to power. The earliest opportunity for such a vote would be March 9 at the next scheduled sitting of parliament. There are rumors already that this session might be postponed. More details on all the twists and turns of the past week can be found in an excellent two-part write up at [New Naratif]. 

In a related incident, reminding observers of strict sedition and communication laws in Malaysia, two men are being investigated and one man has been arrested over allegations of insulting the king on social media after he had sworn in the new PM.  [The Straits Times]

Malaysia: Attorney General Tommy Thomas resigns

(jk) In the midst of all the commotion last week, Malaysia's Attorney General (AG) Tommy Thomas resigned from his position and new PM Muhyiddin has yet to appoint a predecessor. Thomas was under pressure as pointed out last week over dropping terrorism charges against several suspects, including two state lawmakers of former ruling coalition Pakatan Harapan [Air No.8 Feb,2020,4], but official reasons for his resignation have not yet been given. [The Star]

Thomas also oversaw, several high profile cases over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal including former PM Najib Razak and many other UMNO party members. The return of UMNO to power could knock confidence that a new AG - who can review or even drop current charges- would go after some high profile politicians with as much conviction.

Thailand: Government comfortably survives no confidence vote

(jk) As reported in last week's AiR, the controversial dissolution of the second largest opposition party was followed by a week-long censure debate in Thailand's House of Representatives, culminating in a vote of no confidence at the end of last week against the PM and five members of his cabinet. [Asia in Review, No. 8, February/2020, 4] The motion was handily defeated. [Thai Enquirer]

While numerous opposition MPs accused the government of various counts of mismanagement and corruption throughout the week, including some well documented and serious accusations, the censure debate showed above all divisions among the opposition parties which boycotted different parts of the proceedings or abstained from voting, and indicated that there is no appetite to topple the regime in this manner at this stage.

All ministers in question, including the PM, were supported by around 270 MPs and had to face no more than 55 votes cast against them, more or less corresponding to the number of MPs of the now dissolved Future Forward Party (FFP). Pheua Thai MPs showed little support during the vote and were in fact accused of conspiring with the government to run down the clock at certain stages of the debate in order to spare in particular Deputy PM Prawit from some more serious question from former FF MPs. [Khaosod English]

In the end, it is hard to argue against the notion that the debate and vote were a win for a government that after the events of the past couple of weeks is in the most powerful position since the elections. The opposition has said however that after the unsuccessful debate in parliament, the next step is to "take the censure debate on the road"  and continue the conversation in countrywide fora to expose the governments mismanagement. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: University and High School Students Protest after Party dissolution 

(jk) Triggered by the dissolution of the Future Forward Party [Asia in Review, No. 8, February/2020, 4], students at various universities and high schools, including Thammasat University in Pathum Thani province north of Bangkok or the capital's Mahidol University, organised protests to vent their anger with the decision and the government in general.

The protests, sometimes referred to as "flash mobs", are thus far characterised by its use of social media, quick organisation and turn-around, and are in clear contrast to the drawn-out street demonstrations from the mid 2000s until the coup in 2014. PM Prayuth reacted somehow ominously by sharing his "concern" for the students. He said the students "may not have a future" if they are put in prison. [The Straits Times] [VICE]

Philippines: New Anti-Terror Bill

(tk) The Philippines arguably is among the most affected countries by the latest wave of terrorism stemming from the Islamic State and other linked groups over the past few years.

In reaction, the Philippines’ Senate approved the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2020.

The anti-terror bill penalizes those who will propose, incite, conspire, participate in the planning, training, preparation and facilitation of a terrorist act as well as those who will provide material support to terrorists and recruit members in a terrorist organization. Violators will face life imprisonment without the benefit of parole, whether they are foreign terrorist fighters or Filipinos who committed terrorist acts abroad. Further, the bill aims to ease legal restrictions on law enforcement officials to facilitate the conviction of suspects by various means, including a limited, non-extendable detention of suspects without charges and surveillance on suspected terrorists. [The Manila Times] [The Diplomat]

East Timor: Government coalition collapses and PM resigns

(jk) After failing to pass a budget for 2020, the government coalition supporting Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak of East Timor collapsed last week. The PM has since tendered his resignation but has said he will stay in office until a solution can be found. [Reuters]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: US State Department issues restrictions of Chinese state-media entities

(dql) Following last month’s designation of five Chinese state-media entities operating in the USA as foreign missions requiring them to register their employees and U.S. properties and to receive US government approval to buy property [AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4], the US Department of State has gone a step further and issued restrictions which set a limit on the number of Chinese nationals that may be employed at four of these entities to 100, down from currently 160. [CNN]

The move is widely seen as retaliation for China’s expulsion of three Wall Street Journal reporters for releasing an opinion piece of a US professor  titled “China is the real sick man of Asia” in which the government's initial response to the coronavirus outbreak is described as “ineffective”. [AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4]

North Korea testing weapons 

(ef) Signalling a tough stance amid stalled de-nuclearization talks with the USA, North Korea has fired two short-range missiles into the East Sea between South Korea and Japan, just days after South Korea and the USA announced to postpone annual joint drills until further notice in the midst of the Covid-19. [Foreign Policy] [The Guardian].

The launches are the first since November and came weeks after Pyongyang declared its moratorium on long-range missile tests over. [AiR No. 4, January/2020, 4]

Pakistani and Indian reactions to the U.S.-Afghan Taliban peace agreement

(ls/ew) As the United States and the Afghan Taliban have concluded a peace agreement last week, government representatives and observers in Pakistan and India have raised their concerns. The agreement signed on Saturday in the Qatari capital, Doha, creates a framework for the U.S. and NATO to withdraw all foreign troops from Afghanistan over 14 months, pending the meeting of certain criteria. United States secretary of state Mike Pompeo cautiously commented on the peace agreement as the first step towards a meaningful and peaceful withdrawal of U.S. troops and the end of an era of conflict [Politico].

Pakistan facilitated the direct talks between the United States and Afghan Taliban since they began in 2018. However, the country has also long been accused by the U.S. and the Afghan government of providing safe havens to leaders of the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that the U.S. must be wary of "spoilers" who could derail the process, without elaborating. Commentators said he might have referred to the continued presence of other groups such as ISIS and Al Qaida that are not interested in peace. [Al Jazeera]

India has so far been a development and civilian reconstruction partner of Afghanistan, based on the provision of security by the United States. According to analysts, a withdrawal of U.S. forces and connected substantial security uncertainties could put India in a similar precarious position it was in when the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988/89. In prospect, however, India and China are now expected to compete for the Afghan government’s friendship so as to improve their domestic economies and to strengthen their geopolitical hold in the region (in this regard, see also the Background Reading below). [Deccan Herald]

Myanmar: Germany suspends development cooperation

(tk) Last week, Germany’s Development Minster Gerd Müller suspended all development cooperation with Myanmar until the country ensures safe repatriation of Rohingya refugees.

Germany had assured Myanmar 154 million Euro of financial support, but Müller came to this decision during his visit of the largest Rohingya refugee camp in Kutupalong, Bangladesh. He said, “I am deeply moved by their plight. Such ethnic cleanings and crimes against humanity are unacceptable.” To further punish Myanmar for their crimes, he prospected further sanctions including restrictions on visa issuance and trade. [Asia Times]

On the other hand, Germany assured to provide additional funding of 15 million euros for education and sanitation measures to help the Rohingya refugees living in the camps in Bangladesh. An activist of “Free Rohingya Coalition” welcomes the suspension and would like other countries to take this as an example. German development workers in Myanmar, however, are surprised by this decision and assess it as “highly problematic” concerning the trust relationship with Myanmar, which has taken a long time to establish.

German MP Renate Künast, chair of the ASEAN Parliamentary Friendship Group, fears that this decision might affect the wrong people, namely the Rohingya living in the country’s poorest region Rakhine, who have been supported by the development cooperation. [taz, in German] [The Daily Star]

Meanwhile, the violent conflict in Rakhine state continue. On the weekend, eleven Rohingya villagers were killed and several injured. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar: Strengthening ties with India

(tk) During the visit of Myanmar’s president U Win Myint to India from Wednesday to Saturday, Myanmar and India signed 10 memorandums of understanding ranging from infrastructure and wildlife protection to humanitarian assistance. Four of them aim to boost the development of Rakhine state to facilitate the return of Rohingya refugees. Further, the two sides also announced measures to improve connectivity and people-to-people contacts. [Hindustan Times] [New Straits Times]

U.S. postpones Las Vegas summit with ASEAN leaders over coronavirus

(jk) The United States has decided to postpone a meeting with ASEAN leaders initially planned for March 14 in Las Vegas over concerns about the coronavirus outbreak. [CNBC]

Parallel to "Cobra Gold", China and Cambodia hold joint military training "Golden Dragon 2020"

(jk) The Chinese and Cambodian armies hold a joint military training in Cambodia beginning this week, focussing on joint counter-terrorism combat. This joint training is the fourth of its kind. [Xinhua]

Last week, the Cobra Gold 2020 military exercise began in Thailand with nearly 10,000 participating soldiers from 29 countries, including the PRC, but with only seven countries participating the "main drills". These are Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and the US. Cobra Gold is of particular importance to the coordination between the armed forces of the United States and Thailand. [Bangkok Post] 

Background Reading

An analysis of India’s and China’s Eurasian strategies

(ls) A paper published by the Observer Research Foundation analyzes the trajectory of India’s and China’s Eurasian aspirations. In recent years, both India and China have developed different strategies to strengthen their respective ties with the resource-rich economies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, collectively called the Central Asian Republics. The paper argues that India’s “Connect Central Asia” approach is constructivist, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative is hegemonic. It also outlines recommendations for India’s Connect Central Asia policy. [Observer Research Foundation]

Interview: Singapore’s Fake News Law Shows How Not to Address Disinformation Online

(jk) Singapore's Protection of Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA) gave the government significant leverage over social media platforms and users to issue corrections or remove posts it finds to contain falsehoods. This interview digs deeper into the issue with Cherian George, a Singaporean academic and Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University’s School of Communication who works on media freedom, censorship and hate speech. [World Politics Review]

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