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                          Central Banks Could Tilt Hawkish as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Risks

The prolonged Middle East conflict is increasing the likelihood of central banks adopting a more hawkish stance due to rising oil prices.
Economists at JPMorgan see a stronger likelihood of central banks in Singapore and Malaysia tightening policy settings.
In Australia, a 25-basis-point rate hike this month seems increasingly likely due to the Middle East conflict, said Moody’s Analytics.

                          Inflation Holds Steady, but Iran War Threatens to Boost Prices

February consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year earlier, but the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran makes the data a baseline for future inflation.
Benchmark U.S. oil futures averaged about $82 a barrel this month, up from $65 in February, likely leading to hotter March inflation.
The Federal Reserve focuses on a separate Commerce Department inflation reading, with January figures expected to show 2.9% overall price growth.

                          Germany’s Economic Institutes Downgrade Growth Forecast on Iran War

Germany’s leading economic-research institutes lowered 2026 growth forecasts due to the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices.
Ifo Institute, Kiel Institute, and RWI Leibniz Institute lowered 2026 growth forecasts to 0.8% or 0.9%.
Germany’s moderate recovery is driven by a $1 trillion fiscal stimulus, not exports, according to the Kiel Institute.

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