Grasp the pattern, read the trend
Asia in Review
No. 44, November/2020, 1
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
The AiR team is presenting you this week's update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.
We wish you an informative read. Special greetings are extended to readers Dominica and Tonga which celebrate Independence Day and National Day this week.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Law and Politics in East Asia
China: New five-year plan endorsed
(dql) Last week, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) endorsed the party’s 14th five-year plan 2021-2025.
Beyond the general pledge to secure sustainable growth and to develop a robust domestic market, the economic blueprint for the next five years highlights the need to secure the country’s self-reliance in technology as a strategic pillar of national development, a clear reaction to the challenges posed by the US attacks on Chinese tech firms in the recent months. It also stressed the need to strengthen domestic resources and consumption to guarantee growth in the wake of a world economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
For the first time, the five-year plan included also a development goal for the military setting 2027 as timeframe for the plan to transform the People‘s Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern military force. In 2027 the CCP will celebrate its founding centennial. [Xinhua, in Chinese] [Aljazeera] [Inkstone]
In a related assessment ahead of the session, China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, confirmed the country’s rivalry with the US as the “biggest external uncertainty” impeding its medium- and long-term development. But the Commission is also convinced that “time is on China’s side,” citing a clear “trend of the post-pandemic ascent of East Asia and the relative decline of the West,” while “globalisation will not fundamentally reverse, and China could still be able to enjoy a largely peaceful international environment for its development.” It added that Beijing would be able to shape this environment and "actively contribute Chinese solutions" in multilateral platforms in a wide range of issues including economic growth, structural reform, technological innovation, industrial coordination, public health and climate change. [South China Morning Post 1]
Similarly, an analysis in [South China Morning Post 2] of the economic goals laid out in the five-year plan’s for the “basic socialist modernization” by 2035 suggests that the CCP assumes that China will be able maintain constant growth over the next 15 years to supersede the US as the world’s largest economy by that year.
For policy recommendations on how the US should response to “the marching orders” that the CCP has given to the country’s economic decision makers in the five-year plan, see Emily Jin and Coby Goldberg in [The Diplomat].
Japan: Juvenile Law reform proposal seeks harsher punishments for young criminal offenders
(dql) Japan’s Justice Ministry laws week proposed changes to Japan's Juvenile Law for a harsher treatment of 18- and 19-year-old criminal offenders.
While the suggested revisions leave current system of referring all cases of this group of offenders to family courts and of investigations by psychologists and other experts at juvenile correctional facilities to find ways of rehabilitating offenders basically untouched, they expand the range of crimes to be referred to prosecutors. Currently these cases are restricted to those involving the death of a victim as result of premeditated criminal activity. Furthermore, crimes punishable with a minimum of one year in prison, would also be added to the list of cases to be referred to the prosecution. The changes will also relax rules for media to reveal full names and publish facial images of this group of criminal offenders. [Mainichi]
South Korea: Justice Ministry ordered investigation into prosecution
(dql) South Korea’s Ministry of Justice last week begun inspecting the prosecution’s decision in 2018 to drop charges against an asset management firm that is now at the center of a financial scandal under investigation.
The move comes amid allegations that the prosecution has accepted bribes in return for favors to the suspected company in the ongoing investigation and a day after Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae ordered the ministry to examine the decision-making process of the investigating unit, which was headed by the country’s Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl at that time. Choo and Yoon are logged in a bitter wrangle over mutual accusations, with the latter claiming unauthorized interference in the work of the prosecution while the former accuses Yoon of insufficiently carrying out the investigation of the ongoing case. [Korea Herald] [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]
South Korea: Ruling party slammed for revising party rule for by-elections
(dql) The ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is facing a backlash after it changed its internal party regulations to make possible the fielding of candidates for the mayoral posts of Seoul and Busan, South Korea’s two largest cities, in next April's by-elections. All opposition parties decried the move as a breach the party’s promise to the people and accused it of seeking its own political interests.
The revision was made to an article of the DPK’s constitution which stated that the party will not field a candidate for a by-election that was triggered by a party member resigning over their own wrongdoing. Under this the article, the DPK would be unable to participate in next year's by-elections for the Seoul and Busan mayoral posts, as both former DPK mayors of these cities had been suspected of sexual harassment. In July, the late Seoul Mayor committed suicide over these allegations, while the former Busan Mayor stepped down in April. [Korea Herald]
South Korea: Low number of accepted asylum seekers
(dql) Data of the South Korean Ministry of Justice reveal that from January to August this year close to 6.000 foreigners applied for asylum in South Korea of whom only 164 were accepted. The total number of applicants was 36% lower compared with the corresponding period in 2019. Russians ranked top among the applicants with nearly 18%, followed by people from Egypt, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and India. [Channel News Asia]
The low number of accepted asylum seekers reflects a continuation of the country’s restrictive immigration policy since 2018 when asylum applications of 550 Yemeni refugees resulted in a serious public backlash which exposed widespread beliefs of the importance of racial purity and homogeneity in South Korea. [The News Lens]
South Korea: 17-year imprisonment sentence for former president upheld
(dql) South Korea’s Supreme Court confirmed a 17-year prison sentence handed down by an appeals court in February for former President Lee Myung-bak. Lee, who served as South Korean president from 2008 to 2013, was charged in April 2018 with more than a dozen of counts of criminal allegations, including charges of embezzlement and bribery charges. [Yonhap]
Law and Politics in South Asia
India: Federal government changes land laws in Jammu and Kashmir union territory
(lm) In a significant move, India’s central government enacted on October 27 a series of new land laws – and amended some – ending the protections on land rights in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory. The most important change has been made in the Jammu and Kashmir Development Act that governs the disposal of land in the union territory, as the government has ‘omitted’ the term ‘being permanent resident of the state’ as a criterion. The new laws also authorize the Indian army to declare any area as ‘strategic’ for operational, residential and training purposes against Kashmiri rebels. [Scroll.in] [The Straits Times] [The Hindu 1]
Residents and rights groups fear the new laws are aimed at changing the demography of the region, exacerbating concerns that Kashmir could turn into ‘India’s settler-colonial project’. The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, a newly formed conglomeration of parties in the Jammu and Kashmir union territories [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], called the notification a ‘huge betrayal’. [Kashmir Observer]
Two days after New Delhi enacted the new land laws, suspected separatist rebels shot dead three members of the BJP. Moreover, on October 31, the Kashmir Valley then observed a total shutdown in a general strike called for by Tehreek e Hurriyat (All Parties Hurriyat Conference, APHC), a conglomerate of 26 separatist parties. The same day, government forces in riot gear were stationed in large numbers in areas of the region’s main city of Srinagar and across the valley. [Al Jazeera 1] [Al Jazeera 2] [The Indian Express]
In the face of growing anxiety and protests, the provincial government on November 2 said the recently introduced land laws would ‘afford protection to over 90 percent of the land in the Union Territory’, adding that the previous laws were ‘anti-people’. [The Hindu 2]
In August last year, India unilaterally abrogated Article 370 of its constitution, breaking the state of Kashmir into two union territories – one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu and Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh. Heretofore, the state had enjoyed a special status, which allowed it to make its own rules about permanent residency and property ownership [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1].
Since then, India has brought in a slew of changes through new laws. The federal government earlier this year issued new domicile laws for the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which opened up the eligibility criteria for becoming permanent residents. [AiR No. 14, April/2020, 1]
India: Voting in eastern state of Bihar, despite India passing landmark of 8 million coronavirus infections
(lm) Health authorities in India’s eastern state of Bihar faced a big test on October 28 and November 3 as polling began in the first two of three phases to elect members to the Legislative Assembly. More than 70 million voters are eligible to cast their ballots for 243 assembly seats in India’s first major election since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. The third and final phase will be held on November 7; results will be announced on November 10. [The Straits Times]
India’s third-most populous state, Bihar accounts for 40 seats in the 545-member lower house of federal parliament, giving it outsize national influence and making it a key electoral battleground. More importantly, it is the only big state in India's sprawling and politically febrile Hindi Belt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not won on its own. The party has been in power for more than a decade as a junior partner in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) party (JD-U), a party led by Bihar’s incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is seeking a fourth straight term. [bbc]
Despite two successive landslide victories in federal elections since 2014 [see AiR (4/5/2019)], Modi's BJP has a mixed record in state elections. First of all, it has not won a clear majority in any state since polls in Uttar Pradesh four years ago. Moreover, it has lost six state elections and gained power in one, Arunachal Pradesh, by cobbling together a majority with a regional rival-turned-partner, since December 2018.
The election comes as India on October 29 surpassed the eight million mark of confirmed coronavirus cases, making it the second country to reach that milestone after the United States. In the run-up to the election, authorities have struggled to enforce social distancing and mask-wearing during rallies across the state that have attracted tens of thousands of people. [South China Morning Post]
Nepal: Ruling Communist Party once again edges toward a split
(lm) Tensions have resurfaced in Nepal’s ruling Communist Party (NCP) following a meeting between Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal on October 31.
During the meeting Dahal proposed that all outstanding issues should be settled through a meeting of the party’s Secretariat. The prime minister, however, said that meetings were not required, adding that he would take ‘serious action’ if the Dahal held a meeting and took any decision against him. But what is more Oli reportedly also proposed to split the part instead of dragging on with the existing differences. The following day, Dahal held a meeting with five of the nine members of the party’s Secretariat, informing them about a potential party split. The same day, Finance Minister Bishnu Prasad Paudel said that the party was facing a ‘serious existential crisis’. [The Kathmandu Post 1]
Before he agreed to a power-sharing deal in September [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3], Prime Minister Oli’s position had become tenuous, with 31 Standing Committee members openly demanding his resignation as party chair and Prime Minister. Despite that fact that odds were stacked against him, Oli managed to pull off a coup by dragging Dahal into negotiations and winning over other Secretariat members like NCP party vice-chair Bamdev Gautam, who was appointed a member of the country’s National Assembly (NA) in September [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].
In October, however, Oli seemed to have gone back to his old style of functioning again, unilaterally appointing a new Foreign Secretary and other diplomats, without prior approval from the NCP’s Secretariat. More recently, Oli came under fire for breaching diplomatic norms over his meeting with Samant Kumar Goel, chief of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW). The meeting, which preceded an upcoming visit of Indian Army Chief General Naravane, was the latest in a series of efforts by the prime minister to reset ties with neighboring India [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. [Times of India] [The Print 1]
A day after Goel’s visit to Kathmandu, Oli found himself at center of yet another controversy after his Vijaya Dashami greeting card ostensibly featured the country’s old map. Users on social media alleged that the Prime Minister’s office had deliberately removed the updated map after Oli’s meeting with Goel – a claim rejected by his office which said the revised map was distorted because of technical reasons. In July, Nepal unilaterally changed its map, showing the disputed territories of Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani within its borders [see latest AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. [The Print 2] [The Indian Express]
Observers say that the NCP was bound to face the stop-go policies, arguing that the specter of factionalism continued to haunt the party ever since it emerged from a post-election merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)]. [The Kathmandu Post 2]
Moreover, Oli has always ensured to leave the door open, throughout the past months of political imbroglio, in case his rivals backtrack. Back in August, for example, when Dahal told party workers to prepare for the ‘worst’, a new communist party – the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist–Leninist – had been registered at the Election Commission at the behest of Oli [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2, AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2].
Citing a rising number of COVID-19 cases in the country, the NCP meanwhile on October 28 announced that the meeting of the party’s Central Committee had been postponed for a month, now set to take place from November 30 to December 2[see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [The Kathmandu Post 3]
Nepal: Contempt of court case registered against Minister of Health and Population
(lm) Nepal’s Supreme Court (SC) on November 3 registered a contempt of court case against the country’s Minister of Health and Population for allegedly defying the court’s directive to the government to provide diagnostic and therapeutic services to coronavirus patients free of charge. The first hearing of the case has been scheduled for November 4. [The Himalayan Times]
In response to an earlier petition, the SC last month had ordered the government to reimburse hospitals and labs providing provide diagnostic and therapeutic but the government soon thereafter decided not to bear expenses of all virus-infected people, leaving more than 25 percent of the population deprived of proper tests for COVID-19 infection. In addition, the government through an amendment also made family members bury the body of their kin if he/she dies during home isolation.
Pakistan: Provincial status given to Gilgit-Baltistan, two weeks before local assembly elections
(lm) In the run-up to provincial assembly elections in the Pakistan-administered region of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), scheduled for November 15, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced on November 1 the granting of ‘provisional-provincial status’ to the region. The announcement comes after Pakistan’s Minister of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan last month stated that the prime minister would soon visit the region to make an official announcement [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. [Dawn]
Formerly known as the Northern Areas, Gilgit-Baltistan is the northernmost territory administered by Pakistan. Constituting the northern portion of the greater Kashmir region, the territory borders the Indian-administered union territories Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh to the southeast. Not surprisingly, the decision drew condemnation from India, which maintained that Gilgit-Baltistan is ‘an integral part’ of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, which acceded to the Union of India in 1947 [see also AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1, AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]. [The Hindu] [South China Morning Post]
To date, Pakistan fell short of declaring the strategic region as its fifth province, ostensibly to protect its claim on the entirety of Kashmir in the event of a resolution of the Kashmir dispute with India. As a consequence, the region has been caught in constitutional limbo and denied representation in Pakistan’s national legislature. Faced with growing demands from the locals, in 2009, the federal government introduced the Gilgit Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order. The order granted gave the region limited autonomy by creating, among other things, an elected legislative assembly and creating a legal framework to potentially provide anyone living in Gilgit-Baltistan with formal residency. [European Foundation for South Asia Studies]
In a ruling earlier this year, Pakistan’s Supreme Court allowed the federal government to amend a 2018 administrative order to conduct provincial assembly elections and to set up a caretaker government during the interregnum period. The polls were to be held in August, but Pakistan’s election commission in July decided to postpone the elections, citing the coronavirus pandemic. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) completed its five-year tenure earlier this year, and is expected to regain power in the forthcoming election. [The Diplomat] [Kashmir Observer]
Observers remark that elevating the status of Gilgit-Baltistan represents a new spin to Pakistan’s geo-strategy. The region also hosts the Moqpondass, a region selected for one of the proposed nine priority Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The project, said to be Beijing’s largest-ever overseas investment, aims to connect China’s Xinjiang with Pakistan’s coastline in Balochistan, and therefore has to pass through Gilgit-Baltistan. [The Nation]
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has angered both New Delhi and Islamabad after a new currency note issued by the Gulf nation to commemorate the kingdom's presidency of the G20 depicts disputed Kashmir as a state independent from either India or Pakistan. [The EurAsian Times] [Middle Eastern Monitor]
Pakistan: PM Imran Khan acquitted in 2014 Parliament attack case
(lm) An anti-terrorism court on Thursday acquitted Prime Minister Imran Khan in the 2014 Parliament attack case but summoned other senior ministers, including Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, on November 12 for indictment. Further, the court halted proceedings against incumbent President Arif Alvi due to the presidential immunity granted to him in the constitution. The acquittal comes days after Khan urged the court to acquit him, saying that the prosecution was longer interested in pursuing the case. [The Hindu]
In August 2014, police had invoked sections of the Anti-Terrorism Act against Khan and other leaders of the now-ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) for sparking violent clashes between protesters and the police, killing 3 and injuring 26 others. Back then, tens of thousands of protesters swarmed towards Pakistan`s parliament after using bolt cutters and cranes to swiftly remove barricades designed to keep them away from the city’s ‘red zone’ which houses parliament, the prime minister's office and most foreign embassies.
Before, an estimated 50,000 protesters, led by Kahn and PAT founder Tahir-ul-Qadri had been holding demonstrations in Islamabad for five days to demand the resignation of the government led by then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
Interestingly, prosecution lawyers in Pakistan are appointed by the government and take instructions from it. The 2014 prosecution team under the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government had fought the Parliament attack case but with a new team under the PTI government, the situation has seemingly changed. [Dawn]
Pakistan: Balochistan assembly seeks withdrawal of presidential ordinance on islands
(lm) The provincial assembly of Balochistan on October 29 adopted a resolution against the controversial Pakistan Islands Development Authority (PIDA) Ordinance which seeks to takeover islands in Sindh and Balochistan, demanding its immediate withdrawal. Cutting across party lines, the resolution also found support from members of the provincial government, which is run by Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. [The Balochistan Post]
The move comes after Maulana Fazlur Rehman, chairman of the Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (F) (JUI-F) openly threatened the federal government and the establishment not to usurp the islands in Sindh and Balochistan. Rehman, who is last month was appointed as chief of the newly-formed Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1], was speaking in Quetta, where he attended the anti-government alliance’s third rally [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. Within five days, JUI-F’s political alliance in Balochistan, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, then tabled the resolution in the provincial assembly. [South Asia Monitor]
Earlier last month, members of the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) had criticized the Khan government for not tabling the PIDA Ordinance before the National Assembly or the Senate when both houses were in session the in late October. Further, opposition parties submitted a resolution to the Senate, seeking disapproval of the PIDA Ordinance [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. At same time, though, Sindh, which is ruled by the PPP, has not yet been able to adopt a similar resolution to oppose the federal ordinance.
President Arif Alvi promulgated an ordinance for establishing the ‘Pakistan Islands Development Authority’ (PIDA) on August 31 with the primary purpose to develop and maintain Bundal and Buddo islands, which are located in the coastal belt of Sindh province. The ordinance gained public attention in early October after Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari posted the ordinance on social media, calling it an ‘illegal annexation’ by the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2].
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Cambodia: Appeal to stop investigation into two reporters denied by Supreme Court
(jn) On Tuesday, the Supreme Court of Cambodia denied a request by two former Radio Free Asia (RFA) journalists that an investigation into espionage charges against them be dropped. The reporters were arrested in November of 2017 and were charged with “illegally collecting information for a foreign source”. Now, with the investigations and their trial proceeding, they could face prison sentences of between seven and 15 years. [Radio Free Asia]
Cambodia: Hun Sen threatens family of exiled opposition leader
(jn) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on Monday uttered threats against the family of exiled opposition leader Ho Vann of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), reminding him in public that his wife and children still lived in the country and could face charges for being “associates in treason.” The remarks appeared to be made in retaliation for Mr. Ho Vann’s call to protest China's growing influence in the country in a demonstration during which protesters were arrested and assaulted by security forces [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. Mr. Ho Vann, now a US resident, confirmed his call to protest but denied any particular influence on the demonstration. [Radio Free Asia]Human Rights Watch strongly criticized the threats and called on foreign governments and the United Nations to condemn them. [Radio Free Asia 2]
Indonesia: Protests against job bill continue
(nd) On Monday, protests against the recently passed job bill continued in various locations of the country, with critics referring to a deterioration of labor rights and environmental protection. Protesters demand the withdrawal of the bill and the implementation of a minimum wage by 2021, also requesting a judicial review by the Constitutional Court. [Channel News Asia]
According to a legal expert, specifically Article 6 is problematic and strengthens a potential case before the Constitutional Court. It refers to a clause in another Article which simplifies the requirements for business permits, but that Article did not contain the relevant clause, which renders the implementation in Article 6 void. Revising the Article involves a separate legislative process. The expert further argues that this is proof of a rushed, reckless legislative action. [Jakarta Post]
After its approval on October 5, the so-called Omnibus Bill has sparked nationwide protests among different groups. President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo reaffirmed his will to push through with what he views as necessary economic reforms. [See also No. 41, October/2020, 2]
Laos: Unauthorized land concessions revealed
(py) The Chairman of the Government Inspection Authority disclosed that state land in four provinces had been leased on behalf of the government without any formal agreements. Many of the projects on these lands, which include five-star hotel development, agricultural development and a timber plantation, are run without a concession and official registration. [The Laotian Times] The Lao government rents state land with a yearly fee to both domestic and foreign investors, mostly for undeveloped land, with maximums of 50,000 hectares and 50 years. [Open Development Laos]
Malaysia: Covid-19 infections in parliament
(nd) The parliamentary budget session, which begun on Monday, will be cut short due to positive Covid-19 tests of several officers. From the opposition, speculations rose the actual reason for the shortened time was due to 25 of the 64 motions submitted for the 27-day meeting were with respect to votes of no confidence in prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s leadership. With a razor-thin majority in parliament, government ministers have met with opposition parties to advocate bipartisan support to pass the fiscal budget in time. [South China Morning Post]
Myanmar: Election update
(lf) As early voting began Thursday, Myanmar’s President U Win Myint and National Democracy League leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi have cast their votes in the nation’s capital Naypyitaw. Due to Covid-19 restrictions, voters who cannot travel to their registered constituency are allowed to cast their vote earlier in the capital. [Irrawaddy 1] The same applies to people over the age of 60, with additional mobile voting stations to reduce the risk of infections, according to the Union Election Commission. [Irrawaddy 2]
In Kachin state, it is expected that for the first time the ethnic minority Kachin State People’s Party will defeat the national majority party, National Democracy League (NDL), which won in 2015. Even with an absolute win, their chief minister, will be chosen by the party winning the national majority. [Irrawaddy 3]
Meanwhile, a supporter of the National Democracy League (NDL) died in the hospital after riots between the party and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) escalated. Last week, the Arakan Army admitted to the abduction of three candidates [See also No. 43, October/2020, 4] The NDL argues that the USDP has become more violent and hostile against them. In 2015, the USDP lost in a landslide election against the NDL, only winning 10 % of the seats. Since August this year, there have been 40 violent incidents directly related to the elections, with 28 incidents in 2015. [Irrawaddy 5]
Myanmar: Boat carrying relive goods sunk by the Burmese army
(lf) A commercial ship in Northern Rakhine state was shot by the army and sunk, injuring three. The Burmese military claims that it was responding to fire from members of the Arakan Army (AA) on the board of the vessel, which was denied from the AA and crew members. The ship was transporting aid supplies by the International Committee of the Red Cross. No members of the organization were on board. [Reuters] [Irrawaddy] [Radio Free Asia]
Myanmar: Fugitive ultra-nationalistic monk turns himself in
(lf) The ultra-nationalistic Monk U Wirathu turned himself in after being in hiding for nearly two years. The government had issued an arrest warrant under the sedition law for trying to create disaffection towards the government a year ago. Wirathu is known for his anti-Muslim rhetoric and support of the military. The monk faces up to 3 years in prison. A trial was held in his absence in 2019. [Irrawaddy] [Eleven Myanmar] [Reuters]
Wirathu is a leading figure in the Buddhist nationalistic movements, and Times Magazine referred to him as the Face of Buddhist Terror. Wirathu has become a popular figure in Burma, with large support among the lay population. It remains unclear why he turned himself, but a connection to the upcoming elections was argued. Wirathu has openly criticised the civilian government on several occasions. [See also The Diplomat]
Myanmar: Asian Development Bank approves loan for infrastructure project
(lf) The Asian Development Bank has approved a loan for $484 million for the construction of an expressway between Bago Region and Mon State. The expressway is part of a larger infrastructure project led by Japan in the Greater Mekong Region and is expected to improve trade, tourism and investment. [Irrawaddy]
Philippines: Petition against continuing emergency powers
(nd) In a petition for certiorari to the Supreme Court (SC), former Government Corporate Counsel Philip Jurado argues for a halt on president Rodrigo Duterte’s exercise of emergency powers under the so-called Bayanihan 2, a law which seeks to cushion the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jurado argues the emergency powers expired on October 12, when Congress adjourned, following the provision in Section 18 of the Bayanihan 2. The mentioning of December 19, 2020 as expiration date was related to the date Congress was scheduled to adjourn. In the midst of the power struggle between then-Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano and current Speaker Lord Allan Velasco, a suspension of sessions until November 16 was announced, which prompted Duterte to call for a special session from October 13 to 16 on the national budget. While some provisions in the Bayanihan 2 remain in force beyond its expiration, emergency powers for the president were not among those. Jurado also asked the SC to declare void disbursements of public funds made after October 12. [Philstar]
Philippines: Manila to move against LGBTQ+ discrimination
(nd) The Manila mayor signed an ordinance to protect the rights of lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transgenders, queers and intersex (LGBTQ) in the city of Manila against discrimination on the basis of actual or perceived sexual orientation, gender identity, expression. The ordinance includes passages on physical and verbal harassment, the formation of groups and activities to incite discrimination and involves possible imprisonment of a fine and imprisonment between six months and a year, the latter being compulsory for subsequent offenders. [Inquirer]
Thailand: Ongoing protests
(nd) On Tuesday last week, during a two-day parliamentary session to solve current political tensions, a Pheu Thai MP for Chiang Rai cut his arms multiple times with a knife to protest unnecessary force used against protesters. A Palang Pracharath MP alleges a breach of MP's ethical codes and plans to petition at the National Anti-Corruption Commission for the MP's removal. [The Thaiger]
Following the session, prime minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha announced the creation of a “reconciliation committee” of lawmakers, senators and protesters to discuss ways to amend the constitution. Additionally, the emergency decree to fight the Covid-19 pandemic was prolonged for another month. Protesters demands are more far reaching, urging Prayuth to step down and propagating that the public shall vote on representatives to rewrite the constitution, in order to return power to the people, which is why his suggestions were perceived as stalling tactics. [Coconuts Bangkok]
On Wednesday, charges against Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak, co-leader of the anti-government movement, were dropped by the Criminal Court, after he apologized for encouraging people to gather at the court on August 8, and promised not to break the law again. Other protest co-leaders, facing charges for violating the state of emergency during the October 16 rally, denied the charges and argued the government imposed the emergency decree without a valid reason. [Bangkok Post 1]
Following a request for arrest made by the police on Wednesday, the Criminal Court on Thursday turned down a request to arrest five other protesters. The charges were based on inciting insurrection for organizing the march to the German embassy on Monday last week, punishable under Article 116 of the Criminal Code with up to seven years in prison. The protesters read the petition related to His Majesty the King's presence in Germany which was submitted to the German Ambassador German ambassador in Thai, English and German. [Khaosod]
In response to the petition, German MPs in a meeting of the Parliament's Committee of Foreign Affairs stated that His Majesty the King is permitted to make occasional decisions, provided he does not continuously conduct business from German soil. [See also No. 41, October/2020, 2] [Al Jazeera]
Meanwhile, activist groups voice support for the ongoing protests. Manushya Foundation, Access Now, ALTSEAN-Burma, Cambodian Center for Human Rights, the Institute of Policy Research and Advocacy (ELSAM), PEN Myanmar, and SAFEnet Southeast Asia Freedom of Expression Network, released a joint statement urging the Thai government to end its control over the digital space and attacks on freedom of the press. [Prachatai 1] Earlier, Thai Lawyers for Human Rights and ARTICLE 19, a group supporting freedom of expression globally, commented, the Thai government has repeatedly violated human rights of protesters, arrested protesters baselessly and used force against them. [Prachatai 2]
Still, police summoned at least five Free Youth protesters from the Germany embassy on Friday. With respect to the fact that there were no summons against pro-monarchy supporters, a police spokesman said that unlike the latter, pro-democracy protesters did not inform the police ahead, as required by law. [Chiangrai Times]
Also, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon issued an order to the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to take legal action against social media and websites, arguing they were misleading young people into "improper behaviour", creating disunity. The action shall be coordinated with other agencies, including the Technology Crime Suppression Division and the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission. [Bangkok Post 2]
Furthermore, Prawit ruled out that there will be a coup, in response to Sondhi Limthongkul, a former yellow shirt protest leader, who demanded a military intervention to restore stability and protect the monarchy, while calling on the military to quickly hand over power after seizing it so that His Majesty the King could oversee the formation of a unity government. [Thai Examiner] [New York Times]
Meanwhile, Palang Pracharath deputy leader Paiboon Nititawan suggested holding a referendum to ban political rallies for two years to allow the economy to recover and stop escalating conflicts, proposing as date December 20, the day provincial administration elections are scheduled to be held in 76 provinces. [Bangkok Post 3]
On Sunday, the King and Queen met thousands of supporters in Bangkok after attending a religious ceremony inside the Grand Palace, while the King told the UK’s Channel 4 News “we love them all the same”, and when asked if there was room for a compromise the king answered, “Thailand is the land of compromise”. [South China Morning Post 1] The nature of the interview puzzled local media, for normally press contact to the royal family is strictly regulated by the palace authorities. The reporter approach the King in a blatant breach of protocol.
Meanwhile, pro-democracy activists called on students to skip graduation ceremony at Thammasat university, in which the king hands over the diploma and shakes hands with the graduates, with about half of the 9,600 graduates not showing up. [South China Morning Post 2] [South China Morning Post 3] [Khaosod]
Meanwhile, pro-democracy activists called on students to skip graduation ceremony at Thammasat university, in which His Majesty the KIng hands over the diploma, with about half of the 9,600 graduates not showing up. [South China Morning Post 2]
Over the weekend, the three protest leaders, Mr Parit, Mr Panupong and Ms Panusaya, were rearrested after having been granted bail from the Criminal Court, with one of them hospitalized after fighting the arrest. [Chiangrai Times]
In a latest development, three former prime ministers, including Anand Panyarachun, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Abhisit Vejjajiva expressed support for the plan to the set up of a reconciliation panel after having been approached by House of Representatives Speaker Chuan Leekpai, also a former prime minister. Asked by journalists, Gen Chavalit did not rule out the possibility of chairing the panel. [Bangkok Post 4]
The Youth-led protests began in July with calls for the resignation of Prayuth and a new constitution. Increasingly, calls to reform the monarchy, a taboo due to strict law prohibiting criticism thereof, were voiced. Following the introduction of a severe state of emergency on October 15, which was lifted on October 22, the protesters have organized rallies every day since.
Thailand: MP banned by Constitutional Court; Criminal case against Thanathorn
(nd) Move Forward Party MP, Tanwarin Sukkhapisit, was found guilty by the Constitutional Court for violating a law prohibiting media shareholders from applying to become MPs and subsequently banned from the House of Representatives. 57 other MPs were investigated over the same offense but acquitted. Tanwarin was the first transgender to become a MP in the House of Representatives.
Move Forward Party led by Pita Limjaroenrat is the de facto successor party to earlier this year dissolved Future Forward Party, after its leader, Thanathorn Juangroonruangkit, donated 191 million Baht to the party, exceeding the allowed maximum of 10 million Baht per donor per year, forbidden under section 66 of the Organic Law on Political Parties. Critics argue the ruling represents a move against those supporting the pro-democracy movement. [The Thaiger]
Meanwhile, the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) announced to file criminal charges against Thanathorn and 15 executive members of the dissolved Future Forward Party over the donation. If officially charged, Thanathorn faces a possible jail time of up to five years and a fine while the 15 colleagues could face up to three years and a fine for accepting the donation. Despite being banned from conducting formal politics, his activism continued with the extra-parliamentary Progressive Movement. Pro-monarchy supporters as well as right-wing media outlets often accuse former members of the Future Forward Party of manipulating the pro-democracy protesters. [Prachatai] [The Diplomat] Additionally, Thanathorn was charged Thursday for five public assembly violations at a rally in Bangkok’s central shopping district in December 2019, with a possible prison sentence of six months. [South China Morning Post]
Thailand: Registration for local government elections starts
(nd) On Monday, registration of candidates for chairmen and members of provincial administration organizations (PAO) begun, starting the first nationwide local government elections since the coup in 2014. The list of confirmed candidates will be announced November 24, with polling scheduled for December 20. After ousting the Pheu Thai-led government in 2014, the coup-makers' National Council for Peace and Order suspended all types of local elections. [Bangkok Post]
Vietnam: Reporters without Borders decry Facebook’s blocking of posts
(jn) Press freedom group Reporters Without Borders (RWB) criticized Facebook on Friday for blocking posts of journalistic articles in Vietnam that are critical of the country’s one-party government. The critique comes after Trung Khoa Le, a Vietnamese journalist living in Germany, alarmed the group after four of his posts were blocked "due to local legal restrictions”. RWB said the censored posts were linked to an article in the German newspaper taz that dealt with a relative of the Vietnamese interior minister reportedly being involved in drug smuggling. Another of the articles reported on Vietnamese hackers allegedly spying on dissidents in Germany.
Facebook confirmed that some links are being blocked in Vietnam, describing operating there recently as "a special challenge", but said it was committed to defend freedom of expression worldwide. The German RWB chief said that Facebook must be aware of the critical function it provides for journalists in countries with restrictions to freedom of the press. [DPA]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
China: 31st satellite launch in 2020
(dql) China confirmed the launch of a seventh group of three Yaogan-30 reconnaissance satellites last week.
The Yaogan satellites are described by Chinese state media as designed for civilian purposes, including “electromagnetic environment detection and related tests”. Analysts, however, suspect the satellites, which orbit in a roughly 600 kilometer altitude, to be used for military purposes as they are capable of providing frequent revisits for electronic or signals intelligence as well as optical and radar imaging. [Space News]
The launch last week marked China’s 31st satellite launch in 2020. According to findings of analytics and engineering firm Bryce Space and Technology, China is leading the space launch-rate race in this year as of September, with a total of then 29 launched satellites, followed by the US with 27 and Russia with 8. [Bryce] [Breaking Defense]
China-US relations: Washington pressures NATO allies over Chinese nuclear arms
(dql) In a meeting with NATO allies Marshall Billingslea, President Donald Trump's top envoy for arms control, called on allies to impose stricter arms control regulations on China. Citing Beijing’s growing efforts to increase the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal, he stressed the need to take preemptive defensive actions, including deploying additional missile defenses to counteract thousands of missiles China is allegedly building up. He also argues that China's nuclear expansion legitimizes the US expansion of deep strike capabilities to push back China's missile battalions.
Billingslea’s demands signals Washington’s efforts to pressure NATO allies to collectively strike down China’s nuclear program against the background of repeatedly failed US attempts to convince China to enter into a tri-lateral nuclear agreement with the US and Russia. [CNN]
Chinese, US officials discuss prevention of all-out conflict
(dql) Only days ahead of the US presidential election and amid high running tensions between Washington and Beijing, Chinese and American defense officials met at a two-day virtual conference to launch the first Crisis Communications Working Group, a move that observers believe to be crucial for the prevention of an all-out conflict between the countries.
At the meeting both sides discussed concepts of crisis communications, crisis prevention, and crisis management, and agreed that it was important to create mechanisms for timely communication during a crisis and to maintain regular communication channels to prevent crisis and conduct post-crisis assessment. [Republic World]
The meeting was held while US Defense Secretary Mark Esper and State Secretary Mike Pompeo were touring India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Indonesia and Vietnam last week to urged these countries to cooperate with the United States in countering Chinese security threats. [AP]
US-Taiwan arms sales
(dql/ef) Already high running tensions between China and the US have been further strained after two potential US arms sales to Taiwan last and this week.
Last week, the US State Department approved the potential 2.4 billion USD sale of 400 anti-ship cruise missiles along 100 Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems to Taiwan, shortly after its approval of the potential sale of three other weapons systems worth 1.8 billion USD, including sensors, missiles and artillery, a week earlier.
Taiwanese officials believe that the deal marks an important step to being able to destroy half of any Chinese invasion force within five years. The sale is awaiting approval by Congress. [Defense News] [South China Morning Post]
In a latest development, the Pentagon is expected to formally notify Congress on the sale of four sophisticated U.S.-made aerial drones to Taiwan. If not objected by Congress, the sale would mark the first sale of the sophisticated drone technology after the Trump administration loosened export control on military unmanned vehicles in July. [Reuters] [US Department of State]
Meanwhile, a piece in the September/October issue of the US Army journal Military Review calls on the USA to consider basing US troops in Taiwan to effectively deter Chinese fait accompli attacks on Taiwan arguing that “failed conventional deterrence could entail China starting a war to seek the rapid political capitulation of Taiwan.”
Observers caution against such a move as it would “trigger a crisis in U.S.-China relations,” and could, contrary to its intention, provoke the attack on Taiwan.” [Military review] [Japan Times]
The U.S. withdrew its troops from Taiwan in 1979, the year in which Washington formalized diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic in China. Ever since then, the U.S. has carried out a policy known as “strategic ambiguity”, meaning that the U.S. has never formally admitted nor denied whether it would help Taiwan in case of a cross-strait military escalation.
Cross-strait relations: Tsai Ing-wen posture of strength amid concerns over lacking patriotism among Taiwan’s youth
(ef/dql) At a meeting of senior national security officials past weekend, President Tsai Ing-wen reiterated that Taiwan was willing to hold a “substantive dialogue” with China as long as it is on equal terms. At the same time, however, she warned that cross-strait peace could not be achieved by showing weakness, only by strength and the resolve to defend one’s homeland. [Focus Taiwan 1]
Meanwhile, for the 29th time since mid-September, Chinese military planes entered the Taiwanese air defense identification zone (ADIZ) last week. This time, three models from the medium size, medium range Shaanxi Y-8 family, including an electronic signals intelligence variant, an electronic warfare variant and an electronic reconnaissance variant, were intercepted by the Taiwanese military. [Focus Taiwan 2]
Commenting, Taiwanese military experts cautioned that Beijing might currently be evaluating a good approach to invade Taiwan while drafting related war plans. Military aircraft, by repeatedly flying into Taiwan's ADIZ, could obtain experience to deal with occurrences in a potential conflict zone in advance. They further warned of a potential "elastic fatigue" among people in Taiwan – the idea that people will become blasé and no longer concerned over China’s threat to Taiwan. [Focus Taiwan 3]
For related concerns over “fatalism and indifference” towards Taiwan’s fate vis-à-vis Chinese threats among young people who “only like to criticize China with their keyboards, but won’t join the army to show their determination,” see David Pierson and Ralph Jennings in [Los Angeles Times].
China-Brazil tensions rising over Bolsonaro’s block of Chinese Covid-19 vaccine imports
(dql) An Inner-Brazilian quarrel threatens to further strain bilateral relations with China as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his Vice-President Hamilton Mourao are logged in a dispute over the potential purchase of Chinese Covid-19 vaccines. In a latest development the latter on Friday confirmed the purchase and thus contradicting the former’s statement a week earlier that the federal government would not buy. The president’s statement was in turn a response to the health minister’s announcement to include the Chinese vaccine in an immunization program. [Aljazeera]
China’s Global Times warned of the possible damage of Sino-Brazil ties by “some Brazilian forces' politicization” of the imports to court the US and called Bolsonaro “Brazil’s Donald Trump”. [Global Times]
Chinese-Brazil diplomatic ties have been strained over the pandemic since Bolsonaro’s son, a member of the Brazilian Congress, has called the coronavirus “China Virus” to further compare Beijing’s pandemic handling with those of the former Soviet Union of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Similarly, Brazil’s Education Minister accused Chinese medical equipment manufacturers of making profit with the pandemic earlier in spring. [Reuters] [AA]
Bolsonaro himself is known for its hardline stance towards China and believed to currently consider a ban of Huawei from Brazil’s network after last month’s agreement between the US Export-Import Bank and Brazil's Ministry of Economy for the provision of up to 1 billion USD in loans to finance telecommunication projects in Brazil. [ZD Net]
China-Australia relations: Beijing to enforce new ban on Australian imports
(dql) Adding pressure on Australia’s economic amid strained relations between Beijing and Canberra, the former has issued a directive to ban Australian imports from Friday on, worth estimated 6 billion AUSD and including wine, coal, cotton, lobster, timber, and barley. [Financial Review]
In an earlier move, Chinese customers have been advised to defer orders of Australian coal while Australian cotton exporters have been notified that exports will be cut in 2021. [AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]
In September, China imported more metallurgical coal from neighboring Mongolia than from its once-key supplier Australia, with a rise of 17% to 4.65 million tons while shipments of the commodity from Australia shrunk 2.72 million tons, to their lowest level this year. [DHT News]
China-Japan relations: Tokyo plans to block Beijing from supplying drones to Japanese government
(dq) Japan announced that it is considering shutting off China from supplying drones to its government, citing efforts to strengthen the protection of sensitive information as reason, including information technology, supply chains, cyber security and intellectual property.
Japan’s defense ministry currently possesses several hundred drones, including some made by Chinese companies, while the coast guard has about 30 drones, with most of them being Chinese. Both said they were not using Chinese drones for security-related issues. [Reuters]
Japan refuses to join Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
(dql) Japan’s government announced last week that Japan will not join the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), citing an “increasingly difficult security environment” surrounding the country which forces it to walk a thin line between making “steady and realistic progress toward nuclear disarmament” and “maintaining and strengthening […] deterrence capabilities to deal with threats.” [Kyodo]
The announcement came shortly after Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the TPNW, clearing the way for its entry into force 90 days later, and after survivors of the August 1945 US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and anti-nuclear activists called on the government to sign up to the treaty.
The TPNW, adopted in July 2017 and opened for signature in September 2017, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons, aimed to lead towards their total elimination. No nuclear powers nor any major Western country have joined the treaty. [The Conversation]
Japan: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries announced contractor for next-generation fighter jets
(dql) Japan’s Defense Ministry announced Mitsubishi Heavy Industries as the prime contractor to build its next-generation fighter jet, after signing a contract with the company. Mitsubishi is expected to provide the country with indigenous fighter aircraft capabilities, in cooperation with a foreign partner to be selected by the end of the year. One focal point of this collaboration will be stealth technology. [Defense News 1]
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries was recently ranked 21st among the top 100 defense companies in 2020. At the top spot is US Lockheed Martin, followed by four other US companies including Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon Company. Aviation Industry Corporation of China is the highest ranked Chinese defense company at the 6th rank. [Defense News 2]
Meanwhile, Japan’s government is reportedly mulling over the procurement of purchase two new “super-destroyers”, with a focus on missile defense primarily aimed at defending against North Korean ballistic missiles. They serve as an alternative to the pair of US-built land-based Aegis Ashore systems, scrapped in summer due to technical issues, rising costs, and domestic criticism. [The Drive]
Japan-Russia relations: Moscow deploys defense missile systems to disputed islands
(dql) In a highly provocative move amid hardened stances over disputed islands in the East China Sea, Russia in a historic first has deployed S-300V4 air defense missile systems to the disputed Kuril Islands to conduct military exercises.
In service in the Russian army since 2014, the S-300V4 is the latest generation of air defense missile system in the family of S-300V. Compared to the previous version, the S-300V4 features expanded anti-aircraft, anti-cruise and anti-ballistic missile capabilities, with higher efficiency in its anti-missile defense capabilities. It is able to destroy medium-range ballistic missiles within a range of 350 kilometers. [Army Recognition] [EurAsian Times]
In a latest development, it is reported that Russia is considering to deploy its T-72B3 main battle tanks to the disputed Kuril Islands, too. [Defence Blog]
For some important dates in the history of the Russian-Japanese dispute over the Kuril Islands see Peter Suciu in [The National Interest].
South Korea: Assembly of new fighter jets in process
(dql) South Korean aerospace and defense company Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) announced that final assembly of the aircraft fighter KF-X prototype has been in process since September 1. The KAI KF-X Development program is an advanced multi-role fighter jet project aimed to produce modern combat aircraft which will replace South Korea’s older generation of jet fighters. The KF-X program is worth more than 7.3 billion USD.
The KF-X prototype is expected to be completed by the first half year of 2021, with the first flight test scheduled to for 2022. By 2026, system development is believed to be completed after ground and flight tests. The aircraft is designed to fly at speed of Mach 1.81, with a range of 2,900 kilometers. With a payload of 7,700 kilograms, the new fighter jet will host 10 pods for missiles and fuel tanks and carry several types of air-to-air missiles. [Aviation Report]
Meanwhile, a new Air Force unit in charge of operating the country's key reconnaissance assets was launched, expected to enhance South Korea’s capabilities to monitor threats from North Korea and beyond. The 39th Reconnaissance Wing, the country’s first reconnaissance wing, will operate five types of key Air Force reconnaissance assets, including the “advanced unmanned Global Hawk aircraft, RF-16 and RC-800 Geumgang reconnaissance aircraft, and a medium-altitude unmanned aircraft system.” [Yonhap]
South Korea-Mongolia relations: Agreement on mutual tariff reductions
(dql) The South Korean Finance Ministry announce that South Korea and Mongolia will lower tariffs on some products starting in 2021, with Seoul reducing tariffs almost 2.800, while Ulaanbaatar will cut tariffs on 366 items. [Korea Times]
The announcement comes shortly after Mongolia acceded the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), to which South Korea is party state, along with China, Laos, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India. [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]
South Korea-Netherlands relations: Seoul stops Dutch poultry imports
(dql) South Korea last week announced that it has banned imports of poultry from the Netherlands after the Dutch government confirmed findings of chickens infected with a highly contagious variant of avian influenza (AI) on a farm in the central province of Gelderland. [Yonhap]
Inter-Korean relations: Pyongyang accuses Seoul of planning a second THAAD deployment
(dql) North Korea has warned South Korea of a path to “self-destruction”, claiming Seoul and Washington on a plan for the stable stationing of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which Pyongyang views as aimed at paving the way for an additional THAAD deployment.
In 2016, South Korea and the US decided to deploy a THAAD battery to counter missile threats from North Korea which had led to strained relations between South Korea and China. [Yonhap]
Meanwhile, South Korea and the United States are closely watching movements at North Korea's major Yongbyon nuclear complex, following satellite images showing "smoke or vapor" emanating from a building just south of its uranium enrichment plant. [Korea Herald]
US Secretary of States visits Sri Lanka in an effort to sway Colombo away from its pro-China bent
(lm) Less than a week before the American presidential election, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday called the Chinese Communist Party a ‘predator’ who had brought lawlessness to Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Earlier the day, Pompeo arrived in Colombo, the second stop on a four-nation tour [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], marking the first visit of a high-level US diplomat since 2015. [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times]
In an effort to bolster allies against China's growing assertiveness in the region, Pompeo called on the strategically located island nation to be on guard against lending and investment by Beijing, which American officials allege is Chinese exploitation. Meeting with Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Pompeo said Sir Lanka could be ‘a beacon’ for freedom and democracy in the region as long as it retained its ‘full sovereignty.’ [Associated Press]
Defending Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, however, President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa told Pompeo that he was not ready to compromise his country’s sovereignty in relations with other nations. Moreover, Gunawardena appeared unwilling to get involved in the spat with China, saying that Sri Lanka ‘is a neutral, non-aligned country committed to peace’. [The Diplomat]
Earlier this month, Beijing announced that it would provide Sri Lanka with a $90 million grant to help rural development, after President Rajapaksa sought help from a visiting Chinese delegation in disproving a perception that that the Chinese-built Hambantota port is a ‘debt trap’ [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. In the run-up to Pompeo’s visit, China had already fired back at Washington’s message, accusing the United States of ‘importing risk’ to an island nation battling the coronavirus and of bullying smaller nations. [South China Morning Post]
Not surprisingly, there is little indication of headway being made around the pending US proposal on the $480 million Compact of the ‘Millennium Challenge Cooperation’ (MCC) [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5] and a new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Washington has been pressuring Colombo since July 2019 to renew its SOFA, which allows visa-free movement of US security and defense personnel in and out of Sri Lanka. In the wake of Pompeo’s Colombo visit, President Rajapaksa said on November 1 that the MCC would not be signed under his administration. [News First] [The Diplomat]
After his 12-hour visit to Colombo, Pompeo traveled to the Maldives later on Wednesday, another Indian Ocean country struggling with a mountain of Chinese debt incurred to finance big infrastructure projects [see below]. Further, he is due to hold meetings in Indonesia, which is also locked in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, on Friday. The Vietnamese Government on Wednesday said Pompeo would visit Hanoi on Thursday and Friday as part of his tour of Asia.The U.S. State Department has not yet confirmed the announcement. [Reuters]
United States to establish embassy in the Maldives, while island state struggles to repay foreign loans
(lm) Continuing the upward trajectory in bilateral relations, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday the United States would be establishing an embassy in the Maldives, the first since the countries initiated diplomatic relations in 1966. Until now, the United States has maintained relations with the Maldives through the US ambassador to Sri Lanka. [The Hill]
The announcement follows the signing of a new defense agreement between the United States and the Maldives in September [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. What is more, it also comes as the island archipelago has been drawn deep into China’s so-called debt-trap diplomacy and is estimated to have accumulated $1.5 billion in debt to Beijing, equivalent to 45 percent of Malé’s national debt. [bbc]
As per loan repayment schedule, the country is expected to pay $466 million by the next year. However, China has already reduced this year’s loan repayment to $75 million from the scheduled $100 million under the G20 ‘Debt Service Suspension Initiative’. Moreover, Beijing this June agreed to partially suspend debt repayment applicable to $600 million in loans for a period of approximately four years, further indicated that it is prepared to discuss repayment terms for the remaining loans which were secured via state-owned companies.
The majority of these loan agreements were signed during the five-year tenure of now-incarcerated president Abdulla Yameen. At the time, China was embarking on its grand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and therefore, financed several major projects between 2013 and 2018 [see e.g. AiR No. 39, September/2019, 4]. [Australian Strategic Policy Institute]
Still, observers say that the threat of Chinese influence in the Maldives is offset by the country’s long-standing security and defense ties with India [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. In a bid to counter China ’s growing financial footprint in South Asia, New Delhi-backed infrastructure projects are currently being implemented at a fast pace. Further, India has provided a host of support measures to the Indian Ocean archipelago to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [see e.g. AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3, AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4]. [Foreign Policy]
While the country continues to mitigate the economic knock-on effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, speaker of parliament and former president Mohamed Nasheed last week renewed his call for the government to seek loan restructuring. Further elaborating on the issue, Nasheed said that the country would not have the capacity to repay state loans due next year, leaving restructuring of debt settlement as the only feasible solution. In the past, Nasheed has continuously warned that China may take over Maldives if the archipelago fails to repay loans, for which the grace period has expired [see e.g. AiR (4/11/2018)]. [Avas 1] [Avas 2]
Notwithstanding the issue of debt sustainability, the relationship between Malé and Beijing is generally cordial. A bone of contention, though, is disagreement about the status of a Free Trade Agreement which was signed between then-President Yameen and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in December 2017 [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3, AiR No. 39, September/2019, 4].
India, China: Next round of military talks to ease tension along LAC still pending
(lm) In a nod to the recently concluded third edition of the India-US 2+2 dialogue [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4], New Delhi said on October 29 that the ongoing dialogue with China to resolve the border standoff in eastern Ladakh has ‘no connection’ with extraneous issues. During the two-day meeting, India had signed on to the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which commits both countries to provide reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensors. [Hindustan Times 1]
Shortly after the ministerial meeting, on October 27, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington would stand by New Delhi in confronting threats to India’s sovereignty. He also described the Chinese Communist Party as ‘no friend to democracy [and] the rule of law’. In a sharp assertion to Pompeo’s remarks, China the following day said the Sino-India boundary dispute was a bilateral matter, adding that the US Secretary of State’s comments had ‘instigated China’s relations with other countries in the region’. [Hindustan Times 2]
Talks to ease tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are yet to produce a tangible breakthrough in disengagement and de-escalation, despite several rounds of diplomatic and military talks between India and China. Moreover, both countries ramped up infrastructure development and military presence close to the border, since they suffered causalities in the Galwan Valley clash in June. The tens of thousands of troops mobilized by both sides since then have more recently been preparing for an extended winter deployment [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].
Meanwhile, a former lawmaker from the state of Ladakh claimed Chinese troops had further transgressed into Indian territory and occupied prominent positions along the north bank of the Pangong Tso lake. [The Hindu]
India: Forces kill top militant commander in Indian-administrated Kashmir
(lm) Indian police on Sunday confirmed that a top militant commander of the largest militant group in Indian-administered Kashmir was killed in a gun battle with security forces in the city of Srinagar. Shortly after the gun battle, anti-India protests broke out in the neighborhood. Police fired tear gas and shotgun pellets to stop scores of stone-throwing young men from marching in the area. [Al Jazeera] [The Straits Times]
The dead commander, Saifullah Mir, was the chief of operations of Hizbul Mujahideen, a separatist militant group that seeks the integration of the Jammu and Kashmir union territory with Pakistan. For decades, the outfit has spearheaded an armed rebellion against Indian rule. According to officials, Mir took charge of the Hizbul Mujahideen in the Kashmir valley after his predecessor Riyaz Naikoo was killed by Indian security forces in May. [Deutsche Welle]
According to Indian police, 190 militants have been killed in the Muslim-majority region so far this year, with another 50 believed to have surrendered silently. Last week, three young BJP workers were shot dead by militants in southern Kashmir [see article in this edition]
India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting Kashmiri militants – a charge Islamabad has denied. [Reuters]
Pakistan, Bangladesh: Anti-France protests continue, as President Emmanuel Macron seeks understanding
(lm) At least 50,000 people have participated in the third major anti-France demonstration in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka over French President Emmanuel Macron’s support for cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad. The rally, which had been organized by Hefazat-e-Islam, the biggest Islamic group in the country, was stopped from getting close to the French embassy where security had been stepped up. Hefazat-e-Islam has called for the diplomatic outpost to be closed in 24 hours. [The Straits Times] [Nikkei Asia Review]
Macron has been the target of protests in several Muslim-majority nations after he eulogized a French teacher who was decapitated by an Islamist radical who for using cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad in a class on freedom of expression [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. The renewed protests came after the French president’s interview late Saturday with Qatar-based broadcaster Al-Jazeera. During the interview, Macron said that he understood the shock Muslims felt at caricatures depicting the Prophet Muhammad but also defended the ‘right to blaspheme’ under freedom of expression rights and France’s secular values. [Al Jazeera]
In Pakistan, police fired tear gas at hundreds of supporters of the main Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, who had broken through security blockades in Karachi in a failed attempt to demonstrate at the French Consulate in the city. Protests and gatherings marking the occasion were also held in the cities of Multan, Lahore and Peshawar. [Associated Press]
At least 34 civil society organizations in the Maldives have called on the government to cease all economic and political cooperation with France pending an apology to Muslims all over the world. [SunOnline]
Sri Lanka: Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal inaugurates operations with arrival of first ship
(ng/lm) In the latest effort to soothe the waters with New Delhi, Colombo Port’s Eastern Container Terminal (ECT) inaugurated its operations with the arrival of the first container carrier ship on October 27. Moreover, the public sector Sri Lanka Port Authority (SLPA) is planning to hand over the management of the ECT to Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group. [The Sunday Times] [Colombo Page]
In the run-up to this year’s general election, Colombo had suspended the tri-nation project, which India, Japan, and Sri Lanka were to jointly implement [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. Although Japan and India are keen to see the deep-sea container terminal implemented, there have long been no signs that Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapak thought of reviving it. In September, then, Colombo announced its ‘India First Policy’ [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1], which was soon followed by a virtual summit between Rajapak and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].
India and Japan consider their presence in the Colombo Port a strategic necessity in the face of China’s presence in the adjacent Colombo Port City project, a flagship $1.4 billion project in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. India has an additional reason to seek a foothold in Colombo Port as approximately 70 percent of the throughput at Colombo port is accounted for by Indian transshipment. [Maritime Gateway]
Read between the lines, the island nation which finds itself at the crossroads of two strategic policies in the Indian Ocean (US Indo-Pacific Strategy & Chinese BRI) is peeved at being taken for granted in matters of maritime security and spheres of influence in the Indian Ocean. These concerns, at least, were revealed by Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary Jayanath Colombage. Speaking at a webinar on deepening India-Sri Lanka ties on October 29, Colombage asserted that Sri Lanka was a ‘neutral’ and ‘non-aligned’ country. Further elaborating on the issue, he added that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had also conveyed this message to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo [see article in this edition], as well as Yang Jiechi, a Communist Party Politburo member and top foreign policy official [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. [The Wire]
India designates 18 Pakistan-based individuals as ‘terrorists’
(lm) India has designated 18 Pakistan-based individuals as ‘terrorists’ under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), saying the individuals were involved in various acts of terrorism from across the border. Prior to an amendment in August last year, the government could only designate organizations as terrorist organizations. Since then, 13 individuals have been designated as terrorists without a trial. [Deccan Herald] [The Tribune]
Among those designated as terrorists is Syed Salahudeen, head of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, a pro-Pakistan Kashmiri separatist militant organization operating in Kashmir. Salahudeen also leads the United Jihad Council, a Pakistan-based conglomeration of jihadist militant groups allegedly sponsored by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with the goal of annexing Jammu and Kashmir to Pakistan. Already, Salahuddin is listed on the Most Wanted List of India's National Investigation Agency. Moreover, on 2017, the US Department of State designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). [The Hindu]
Pakistan summons Indian diplomat over ceasefire violations along disputed border in Kashmir
Pakistan summoned a senior Indian diplomat on October 30 to lodge a formal protest over recent ceasefire violations by Indian forces along the Line of Control (LoC) in the disputed Kashmir region, resulting in serious injuries of two civilians. New Delhi called on Islamabad to respect the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding and to investigate the incident. [The Straits Times] [The Express Tribune]
Earlier this month, Islamabad summoned an Indian diplomat to protest another ceasefire violation by Indian forces along the LoC on October 14, which left two civilians injured.
Cambodia: Prime Minister Hun Sen reaffirms denial of plans for Chinese military base
(jn) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen denied again on Tuesday that his government was allowing China to establish a military presence in the country. Hun Sen stated there will be Chinese investors and technical experts in Cambodia, but no Chinese armed personnel, and called for the production of evidence on the presence of Chinese troops. His remarks come in the wake of the demolition of US funded facilities at Ream Naval Base in September, that was revealed last month [AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. The incident sparked worries among the US and international observers that the base might be prepared for a future Chinese military presence. Similar concerns were contributed to the US slapping sanctions on a Chinese-controlled company for developing the Dara Sakor project further north at the coastline. [AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4] [The Star]
Laos to reopen the border to travelers from China
(py) China and Laos have agreed on a fast track scheme to allow Chinese nationals to pass through the Boten border in Luang Namtha, if they have tested negative for COVID-19, been quarantined for 14 days in China, and another 48 hours in Laos. It will commence November 1, a week later also for Vietnamese nationals. Four smaller borders, one on the Border with China and three on the border with Thailand, will open for the crossing of goods. Citizens have expressed their concerns over the short quarantine, while some urged the government to reopen other borders, citing economic hardships. China is Laos' largest foreign investor, followed by Thailand, with predominantly hydro-power dams and other large-scale infrastructure projects built under the Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover, Chinese tourist were the third-largest group of tourists, following Thailand and Vietnam, in 2018 and generally make up an important factor to the regional tourist industry. China was the primary source of visitors to Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore, and Bali, prior to the spread of Covid-19. [Radio Free Asia] [The Diplomat]
Malaysia, Indonesia: Criticism over Macron's comment of caricatures
(nd) Following French president Emmanuel Macron's comments defending the display of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in a school classroom, Malaysia's foreign ministry summoned France's charges d'affaires over alleged hate speech and defamation of Islam. The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and the Islamist party PAS submitted memorandums of protest to the French Embassy in Kuala Lumpur. In a statement, Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein emphasized Malaysia's commitment to uphold freedom of speech and expression "as long as these rights are exercised with respect and responsibility in order to not infringe on or violate the rights of others".
Following the beheading of a French teacher by a Chechen origin teenager after he showed the controversial caricatures in class, Macron defended the magazine Charlie Hebdo and referred to Islam as “a religion in crisis all over the world," which caused a global outrage among Muslims. It also followed boycotts of French products in Muslim countries, among them the Malaysian Consultative Council for Islamic Organization. Several Muslim-majority countries have condemned Macron's remarks, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying the French leader needs "mental treatment".
French officials argued the killing was an attack on core French values of freedom of expression. The caricatures were also projected onto the facade of a building and displayed by protesters around the country. [Channel News Asia] [Anadolu Agency 1]
The world’s largest Muslim organization, Indonesian group Nahdlatul Ulama, with an estimated 90 million members, called for calm, despite criticizing the French president. [South China Morning Post 1]
Malaysia’s former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad commented on Twitter, which was deleted following strong reactions by the French government after initially declining to remove it due to public interest. In a reference to the history of French colonialism, Mahatir posted: “Muslims have a right to be angry and kill millions of French people for the massacres of the past.” It was criticized by diplomats and a Malaysian cleric soon after. [South China Morning Post 2]
Mahathir commented the deletion as follows: "If they had read the posting in its entirety, especially the subsequent sentence which read: 'But by and large the Muslims have not applied the eye for an eye law. Muslims don't. The French shouldn't. Instead, the French should teach their people to respect other people's feelings." [New Straits Times]
While also condemning the attacks, Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo also criticized Macron's words as insulting to Muslims. [South China Morning Post 3]
Korea-Myanmar industrial complex construction expected to start
(lf) Despite Covid-19 difficulties, the large-scale infrastructure project between Myanmar and Korea to build an industrial complex is expected to start in December 2020. It is expected to be finished by 2022, and rise Myanmar's manufacturing capacity, primarily in the production areas of textile and food and beverages. [Myanmar Times]
Indonesia: Pompeo to further criticize China on maritime disputes
(nd) In his visit to Indonesia before the US presidential bid, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo furthered his administration's take on China, mentioning Beijing’s aggressiveness in the South China Sea, and its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. While attacking China and rejecting its claim over the disputed waters, Pompeo praised Indonesia for protecting its maritime sovereignty in the North Natuna Sea.
His counterpart Retno Marsudi said “international law must be respected” and that "the South China Sea should be maintained as a stable and peaceful sea," but did not mention China directly.
After the meeting, Retno reiterated Indonesia's invitation to US investment in the development of Riau Islands’ Natuna regency, one of outer islands in the southern part of the disputed waters.
Previous US policy argued, that maritime disputes between China and its neighbors shall be resolved through UN-backed arbitration. In a statement in July, Pompeo announced the US views all Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea as illegitimate. This announcement was made in the context of the US presidential campaign, with the Trump administration portraying the Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, as weak on China. [Jakarta Post] [Channel News Asia] [Jakarta Post]
Meanwhile, the US has extended trade privileges for Indonesia under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) scheme, with annual exports worth more than $2 billion from Indonesia to the US. Under the GSP, the US unilaterally grants duty exemptions on the import of various goods from developing countries since 1974. According to Foreign minister Retno Marsudi, 13% of Indonesia's total exports to the US in 2019 used the exemptions. Also, most exported products under the scheme are produced by Indonesian small and medium enterprises. [Jakarta Globe]
Vietnamese vessels dare Indonesia’s sovereignty in South China Sea
(jn) According to the activist group Destructive Fishing Watch (DFW) Indonesia, Vietnamese fishing boats have intruded into Indonesia’s territorial waters in the North Natuna Sea, making up about two thirds of the more than 30 foreign-flagged ships that carried out illegal fishing between June and October of this year. None of those ships hailed from China. A DFW representative called on the Indonesian government to take action against these intrusions – which have increased since last year – by stepping up surveillance or military patrols. He said this was necessary for the sake of deterrence, since the Vietnamese vessels were maneuvering aggressively by either fleeing or crashing with the encountering Indonesian monitoring ships.
Only in January, Indonesian military vessels expelled more than 50 Chinese ships from the area that China claims for itself, as it is encircled by China’s infamous nine-dash-line. However, inner-ASEAN disputes are not uncommon either, such as between Vietnam and Indonesia, who are still in negotiations about the exact boundaries of their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). According to experts, Vietnamese forays are not so much motivated by a rejection of Indonesian sovereignty, but rather by economics. [South China Morning Post]
What Vietnam expects from the United States after the 2020 US election
(jn) Depending on the outcome of the US presidential election, the prospects for the burgeoning US-Vietnamese relations and the US involvement in South East Asia may change, or perhaps not so much, according to a recent analysis for The Diplomat.
In economic and security matters, both countries have continued to inch towards each other in recent years, with notable exceptions. The US are Vietnam's biggest export market and also a strategic partner that is increasing its presence in Vietnam’s neighborhood and even providing for training and security assistance. On the other hand, Vietnam remains as cautious about the Trump administration's abrasive trade diplomacy, as it worries about being ground between the superpower rivalry of the US and China. China not only continues to be Vietnam’s largest trading partner but is also close in political and historical terms – something one can easily forget over the frictions in the South China Sea. This means that Vietnam cannot afford the single-minded security approach currently pursued by the US due to the multifaceted relationship with China. While Vietnam would welcome continued “Freedom of Navigation Operations” and an outspokenness on China’s encroachment in the South China Sea, it would also like Sino-US tensions to decrease. Vietnam would also stand to gain the most from the US rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the successor of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Larger and targeted infrastructure investments – the likes of which China has been using as a geopolitical gateway – by the US would also boost the relationship with Vietnam. Another step towards diversifying and at the same time strengthening US-Vietnamese relations would be a continued, if not heightened support for the Mekong-riparian countries.
Finally, whoever will govern in the coming years, the US will have to rely (even) more on its regional alliances such as the Quad, to effectively and sustainably build an anti-pole to China’s rise. [The Diplomat]
Singapore easing entry measures for travelers from China and Australia’s Victoria
(py) Following a reciprocal green lane between Singapore and Indonesia earlier this month [See also No. 41, October/2020, 2], travelers from China and the state of Victoria in Australia will be able to enter Singapore if they are tested negative on arrival, without being subject to quarantine. Earlier, Singapore announced similar unilateral measures for travels from Brunei, New Zealand, Vietnam and Australia excluding Victoria, as well as bilateral green lane arrangements for business or official purposes from Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Germany, with ongoing negotiations for Thailand and Hong Kong. [The Strait Times]
Former senior Singaporean diplomat triggers controversy over ASEAN membership
(jn) Former Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore, Bilahari Kausikan, triggered an international controversy on Octoer 23, suggesting ASEAN might have to terminate the membership of Cambodia and Laos given the enormous political and economic influence of an outside power, arguably alluding to China. He uttered the idea at a webinar of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, after referencing a proposed communiqué between ASEAN and China from 2012, which failed due to Cambodia’s resistance. Mr. Kausikan also said that both countries “must care” about who controls the Mekong River which he called an existential issue for people’s livelihoods.
The comments were rebuked by current and former Cambodian diplomats who attacked Mr. Kausikan as “arrogant and condescending”, said he destroyed ASEAN unity and questioned whether he was an “agent”. [South China Morning Post]
Thailand: US revokes duty-free privileges
(nd) Following more than two years of negotiation, the US revoked duty-free privileges for Thailand’s imports to the United States, affecting around 231 Thai products under the US government’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). A lack of sufficient progress in opening the Thai market for American pork products and not providing overall equitable access were cited as reasons. This follows a decision from last year to revoke trade privileges for Thai products worth another 41 billion Baht, with reference to the lack of enhancement of labor rights.
Notably, the top three pork producing states – Iowa, Minnesota and North Carolina – will be at the center of the battlefield of this week's presidential election.
Under the GSP scheme, products are granted duty-free entry into the US market in exchange for the protection of labor and intellectual property rights, and a reciprocal access to the local market for American products. Thailand’s exports to the US, which is its biggest market that saw an expansion of 19.7% this September, will become less competitive following the US decision. China, the second-largest export market saw an expansion of 6.9%. Thailand has already announced a projected 8% fall in exports due to Covid-19.
US-Thai relations have been difficult since the military coup of 2014, which prompted the current government, and the Obama administration to stop military engagement. Under the Trump administration, US foreign policy remains unpredictable.
As a consequence, Thailand's trade policy shifted towards China, notably partnering with Huawei to build communication infrastructure for the Eastern Economic Corridor project. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free-trade pact between China, Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and ASEAN, putting China in the center of pacific trade, remains a key goal for Thailand, causing possible friction with the US. [See also No. 43, October/2020, 4] [Thai Examiner] [The Diplomat]
Vietnam: US citizen released from prison after being in custody for two years
(jn) A US citizen, incarcerated with a 12-year prison sentence for “attempting to overthrow the people’s government”, was released prematurely after 27 months.
The California-resident was charged for inciting protesters to attack government offices with Molotov cocktails and slingshots, was allowed to return to the US from Ho-Chi-Min-City for humanitarian reasons, according to the US embassy in Hanoi. In July 2018, he reported, he was arrested by unidentified men in civilian clothes, blindfolded and handcuffed. He said that he had been interrogated for 16 hours at a time on many days, and not been allowed to contact his family for the first two months, and after that only on rare, monitored occasions. He was not afforded the opportunity of a fair trial, in which he could have defended himself, and did not get a proper consular legal counsel either. Two other people were detained with him and sentenced to 10 years and 8 years in prison, respectively, also for allegedly attempting to overthrow the government, but who are still in jail. [Radio Free Asia] [Radio Free Asia 2][Reuters]
Pompeo completes Asia trip with last-minute stop in Vietnam
(jn) US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo concluded his Asia-tour by paying Vietnam a visit on short notice during which he stressed the US’ respect for the country’s sovereignty and the commitment to strengthen bilateral relationships. In his meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the latter said that he sought “sincere cooperation” to achieve peace and economic progress in the region. Even though China was not mentioned, Pompeo's trip reflected US intentions to shore up its alliances to counter China’s geopolitical ambitions, which Vietnam faces as a claimant state in the disputed South China Sea.
Mr. Pompeo also met with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh and Minister of Public Security To Lam, who helms the department responsible for cracking down against dissidents. Only days prior to the visit, Vietnam released a US citizen from prison and send him back to the US [see entry above].
Pompeo’s trip coincided with the US and Vietnam celebrating 25 years of normalized diplomatic ties this year. [Reuters] [Asia Nikkei Review] During the US-initiated Indo-Pacific Business Forum on October 28, Mr. Minh also said that a strong and united ASEAN would benefit all member states and the US. He said that Vietnam and the US had become major economic partners, referencing the signing of trade agreements worth billions of US dollars. [Hanoi Times]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
6 November 2020, 2.00-4.45 pm ICT, CPG in cooperation with the Asian Governance Foundation (AGF) and Hanns Seidel Foundation, Thailand
Asia in Review (AiR) online panel discussion
New Authoritarianisms in Comparative Perspectives
This online event will present and discuss current developments of authoritarian regimes in selected countries in Europe and Asia.
More about the event at [CPG].
4 November 2020 @ 5:00 pm CEST, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland
The Role of Security and Security Providers in the Conflict to Peace Transition: Perspectives from Colombia and Yemen
This virtual panel discussion will explore how security sector reform and governance may inform and thus enable peace negotiations, by allowing conflict parties to feel more confident in making concessions towards building peace.
For more information and registration, kindly follow [DCAF].
6 November 2020 @ 2:00 pm CEST, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden
Tracing Intersections of COVID-19: Gender, Water and Armed Conflicts
This webinar will present recently released research on the gendered consequences of disease outbreaks in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States and how Armed Non-State Actors are using COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa to gain legitimacy.
For further details, please see [UI].
6 November 2020 @ 11:00 am CEST, European Council on Foreign Relations, Germany
Migration and climate change: what can European cooperation achieve?
This webinar will debate how the members of the European Union can prepare for the migration flows of the next decades and how the European Union can enhance cooperation of its member states.
Please find details here: [ECFR].
9 November 2020 @ 7:00 pm CEST, Clingendael, The Netherlands
The Many Faces of Modern China
This live-streamed event will discuss China’s relation with different countries in the East Asian region, as well as with other major powers and the developing world. Furthermore, the discussants will look at China’s deteriorating relationship with the US.
For registration details, please visit [Clingendael].
9 November 2020 @ 12:15-1:15 pm EDT, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, USA
“Will COVID- 19 Recovery Packages Accelerate or Retard Progress on Climate Changes?”
This online talk on energy policy will be given by Cameron Hepburn, Professor of Environmental Economics at the University of Oxford.
For registration details, please visit [Havard Kennedy School].
9 November 2020 @ 4:00-5:30 pm EDT, Wilson Center, Washington, DC, USA
Post Wall, Post Square: Rebuilding the World the World After 1989
This online book launch offers a bold new interpretation of 1989’s revolutionary upheavals and of how a new world order was forged around the duality of the fall of the Berlin Wall fell and the massacre in Tiananmen Square.
For more information, see [Wilson Center].
9 November 2020 @ 8:00-9:00 am EDT, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA
Private Sector Responsibility on Race, Equity and Inclusion - Part 3
In this online talk Chairman, Co-CEO & Chief Investment Officer of Ariel Investments John Rogers will present his work on combatting racism in the corporate world and concrete steps he's taken to advance diversity, equity, and inclusion within his own company.
More about the event at [Chicago Council on Global Affairs].
10 November 2020 @ 9:00 am CEST, Clingendael, The Netherlands
EU-Korea Convergence & Partnerships
This virtual panel discussion will seek to assess the EU-Korea convergence and partnerships 10 years after the EU-Korea free trade agreement as well as how the relationship will develop in the post-Covid era, and the influence of the US-China trade war.
Please check [Clingendael] for registration details.
10 November 2020 @ 2:00- 3:00 pm EDT, Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA
America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy
This online event will feature with former US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick on the strategic and immediate challenges of U.S. foreign policy during an era of transformation.
For registration details, please visit [FPRI].
10 November 2020 @ 12:00-1:00 pm EDT, Cato institute, Washington, DC, USA
Race and Medical Licensing Laws
This online discussion will deal with the question how medical licensing can become a tool to affect racist ends in the US.
Find more event details at [Cato].
10 -11 November 2020 @ 12:30-15:30 pm JST, Asian Development Bank, Japan
Virtual Conference on Blue Economy and Blue Finance: Towards Sustainable Development and Ocean Governance
This event will discuss the blue economy and blue finance, including related governance planning, sectoral management, and risk management.
For registration details, please visit [ADB].
11 November 2020 @ 12:00-2:00 pm BST, Bingham Centre for The Rule of Law, UK
The UK, European Human Rights and the Rule of Law: Seventy Years of the ECHR and Twenty Yeats of the HRA- A Time for Celebration?
This webinar will discuss what the Human Rights Act has done for the UK and the contemporary political context.
If you are interested in joining the webinar, please find further details at [BIICL].
11 November 2020 @ 11:30 - 12:30 pm EDT Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Standford University, USA
Islamic Humanitarian Law and Islamic Armed Groups
This online talk will provide insights into the relationships between and amongst Islamic humanitarian law, Western (treaty-based) humanitarian law, and the rhetoric and behavior of Islamic armed groups.
For further details, please visit [Stanford University].
12 November 2020 @ 11:30 am - 12:30 pm EDT, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Standford University, USA
Culture and Counterinsurgency: The Battle of Algiers at the Pentagon, 2003
This event will discuss the historical moment and the questions it raises about the relationship between U.S. militarism and the uses of literature and film in the management of insurgency in Africa and Western Asia.
More about the event at [Stanford University].
12 November, 2020 @ 4:00 - 5:00 pm EDT Standford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, US
Black lives Matter Beyond Borders
This event will discuss the "Critical Conversations: Race and Global Affairs" series focused on the insights from Black internationalist research and racial justice movements.
For registration details, please visit [Stanford]
12 November 2020 @ 12:15-2:00 pm EDT, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, USA
Fighting Crime with an Iron Fist: An Experimental Evaluation of Militarized Policing in Cali, Colombia
The speakers of this online event will experimentally evaluate a militarized policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, the country's third largest city and among its most violent.
Please find details here: [Havard University]
12 November 2020 @ 11:00-12:00 pm EDT, Pacific Council on International Policy, USA
Under Pressure: Taiwan, The United States, and China
This online talk will explore what an increasingly forceful China means for the United States and Taiwan.
For registration details, please visit [Pacific Council].
12 November 2020 @ 4:00-5:30 pm EDT, Wilson Center, Washington, DC, USA
Soviet Judgement at Nuremberg: A New History of the International Military Tribunal after World War II
This online book launch will shed light on the critical role of the Soviet Union in the Nuremberg Tribunal.
Find more about the event at [Wilson Center].
13 November, 2020 @ 2:00 - 3:30 pm EDT, Wilson Center, Washington, DC, US
Antarctica: U.S Research and Diplomacy on the Southern Continent
This event will discuss the importance of U.S. research efforts in and around the continent, the unique role of the U.S. Coast Guard in supporting these endeavors, as well as U.S. diplomatic interests and efforts in a time of dynamic change.
For registration details, please visit [Wilson]
Recent book releases
Eric Weaver, Overcoming the Darkness: Shining Light on Mental Illness, Trauma, and Suicide in Law Enforcement, Overcoming the Darkness Media LLC, October 15,2020, 231 pages. For more information [Overcoming the Darkness]
Andrew Cuomo, American Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic, Crown, 13 October 2020, 320 pages, reviewed in [The Guardian].
Colonel E C V Foucar MC, First Burma Campaign: The Japanese Conquest of 1942, Frontline Books, October 28,2020, 384 pages, briefly reviewed in [John Purvis].
Les Payne and Tamara Payne, The Dead Are Arising: The Life of Malcolm X, Liveright, 20 October 2020, 640 pages, review in [NPR]
Callls
The Balkan History Association and the Research Institute for European and American Studies invites academics to submit original studies in English for a volume on Islamic Radicalisation in the Balkans after the Fall of Communism. Closing date for submission of abstracts in 31 December 2020. Further details at [CFP].
The 17th International Humanities and Social Science Conference, scheduled for 19-20 November 2020 in Singapore, invites to submit papers. Submission deadline is 5 November 2020. More about the conference at [International Conference].
Jobs & positions
The British Institute of International and Comparative Law offers a fixed term contract position of Research Assistant in International Law. Closing date for applications is November 15, 2020. Details at [BIICL].
The Keele University offers a permanent contract positions of Lecturer in Law. Closing date for applications is November 4, 2020. For more information, see [Keele]
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