Good day. For the past couple of years, venture deals and dollars, along with secondary trades, have largely focused on a handful of companies: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic in particular. With SpaceX lifting off into public markets, and OpenAI and Anthropic making moves to follow, venture investors are on the lookout for a new cohort of pre-IPO all-stars.

“It will create a few months of uncertainty,” Idan Miller, founder and CEO of secondary marketplace Unicorns Exchange, said of the mega IPOs. “People will have to start doing their homework and picking up the new runners, the new company that will become OpenAI and Anthropic and SpaceX in two or three years’ time.”

What is your take on the outlook for venture capital after these mega IPOs are completed? Will a new handful of companies come to dominate dealmaking? Or will a market flush with post-IPO cash diversify into a more balanced landscape? Please email responses to vcnews@wsj.com.

Last week, we asked how the AI revolution has affected limited partners’ interest in venture capital and their expectations for this sector. Here are edited excerpts of responses:

• Steve Brotman, founder and managing partner at Alpha Partners: “The question has shifted from ‘Should we be in venture?’ to ‘Where in venture do we actually get paid?’ The answer is moving later, and the reason is math. A company already valued around $10 billion has roughly a 31% chance of reaching $100 billion, while a $1 billion unicorn has only about an 8% chance of getting to $10 billion. AI has amplified that skew.”
   
• Weston Moyer, co-founder and managing partner at MVP Ventures: “A decade ago, a $60 billion company was viewed as a generational success. Today, we’re seeing companies measured in the hundreds of billions and even trillions. As companies stay private longer and capture more value before IPO, the traditional assumptions used to model venture returns may be significantly discounting actual fund multiples.”
   
• Anis Uzzaman, founder and CEO at Pegasus Tech Ventures: “Recent successes like Cerebras and the anticipated IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI have reminded investors of venture capital’s ability to generate outsized returns from transformative technologies. At the same time, LPs are becoming more selective, looking beyond AI hype and focusing on managers with access to top founders, deep technical expertise and the ability to help companies scale globally.”

And now on to the news...

Musk confidant. SpaceX’s initial public offering could make Elon Musk a trillionaire. The second-biggest payday will go to Antonio Gracias, his close friend and longtime investor who has made a career out of backing Musk. When SpaceX goes public on Friday, Gracias and his firm Valor Equity Partners will own 6.7% of Class A shares, according to the company’s IPO prospectus, giving the firm a $68 billion stake. That will make Gracias the second-largest SpaceX shareholder after Musk.

More:

• SpaceX Officially Raises $75 Billion in Record-Breaking IPO
• SpaceX IPO Draws at Least $5 Billion Order From BlackRock
• Everything You Need to Know About the SpaceX Trading Debut
• See the VCs and Family Offices at the Core of the Mega IPO Wave
   

Jeff Bezos said he expects artificial intelligence to create a “labor shortage in the economy,” rejecting fears that the fast-evolving technology will put humans out of work as he launches a new venture aimed at making engineers more productive. The billionaire founder of Amazon.com is co-leading a new AI business called Prometheus, which plans to build an “artificial general engineer” that can design and manufacture complex physical products such as a jet engine.

OpenAI is considering drastically lowering the prices it charges users as it seeks to win customers from its rival Anthropic. The company is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for tokens, the unit of measurement artificial-intelligence firms use to bill for their products, according to people familiar with the matter. The move would be in anticipation of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, the people said. Business executives have begun to balk at the high prices for AI usage.

• More: The AI Price War Is Here, Piling Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic

WSJ Sports: The Next Sports Economy will bring together investors, team owners, executives and advisers at Jazz at Lincoln Center’s Frederick P. Rose Hall in New York July 15-16 for conversations on the forces transforming the business of sports. Join leaders from across finance, media, ownership and operations as they sit down with WSJ reporters to explore the future of investment, governance and value creation across the global sports landscape.

Funds

Early-stage investor Animal Capital closed its third fund with $33 million in commitments. The firm raised a combined total of $29 million for its preceding two vehicles.

Google and venture-capital firm Monashees have launched Gama Fund, a joint initiative to fund Brazilian startups focused on AI and deep tech.

People

Artificial Agency, a generative behavior engine for gaming, named Greg Canessa as chief operating officer. He most recently served as president and COO at Sequence.

Eyebot, an automated vision test kiosk provider, promoted Kiyo Gomi to chief operating officer. He joined the startup in 2022.

Cyber incident response management provider BreachRx appointed Stephen Garcia as chief information security officer.

Exits

Figure Technology Solutions agreed to acquire Kiavi, a lending platform for residential real-estate investors, for $717 million.

Digital Asset, a New York-based blockchain technology provider, scored a $355 million investment led by a16z crypto.

Theker, a Barcelona-based startup building generalist robots for industrial production environments, secured $85 million in Series A financing. CRV led the investment, which included participation from Cathay Innovation, 20VC, Henkel Ventures and others.

PhoenixAI, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based agentic AI database startup, snagged $80 million in Series B funding led by Sky9 Capital.

Endurance Energy, a Seattle-based startup developing subsea geothermal power systems, collected $54 million in Series A funding. Founders Fund led the round, which included participation from Felicis, Voyager Ventures, Riot Ventures and others.

Poetic, a San Francisco-based startup that automates complex enterprise processes, raised $50 million in Series A funding at a $500 million valuation. Kleiner Perkins led the round, which included participation from Founders Fund and First Harmonic.

Coram AI, a physical security platform, landed $35 million in Series B funding. Ansa Capital and Battery Ventures co-led the round, which saw contributions from UP.Partners, 8VC and Mosaic Ventures.

Pi, a San Francisco-based agentic product security platform that automates software protection, picked up a $35 million investment led by Brightmind Partners and Third Point Ventures.

Turnout, a San Diego-based AI-powered consumer advocacy platform, grabbed $35 million in Series A funding. HighPost Capital led the investment, which included additional support from Shine Capital, LGVP, Mangusta Capital and others.

Dapple, a Dublin-headquartered startup building an operating system for AI infrastructure, completed a $30 million seed round from investors including The Raptor Group and Ion Pacific.

Maneva, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based platform that integrates with existing factory camera systems to give real-time production floor insights, nabbed $27 million in Series A funding. U.S. Venture Partners led the round, which saw participation from Bling Capital and Freestyle Capital. 

Neion Bio, a New York-based startup focusing on the production of biologic medicines, closed a $23 million Series A round led by Caffeinated Capital.

Capsa AI, a startup building an AI operating system for private capital, fetched $18 million in Series A funding co-led by TX Ventures and Pivot Investment Partners. The company is based in New York and London.

Trustap, a Dublin-based payments and transaction platform for online marketplaces and e-commerce brands, secured a $10 million investment led by Aperture Capital.

• Nvidia, Amazon Back Neura Robotics’ $1.4 Billion Fundraise

• What to Know About Drone-Boat Maker Behind Iran Helicopter Crew Rescue

• Anthropic’s New Fable AI Model Is Met With User Backlash Over Restrictions

• KKR Launches $10 Billion AI Infrastructure Company With Nvidia, Vistra

• Visa to Secure Payments for Shoppers on ChatGPT in OpenAI Partnership

• Meta’s Subscription Push Exposes Its Weak Hand in AI

• Citigroup Is Rolling Out Tokenized Shares of Private Companies

• AI founder declares the 'era of token-maxxing is coming to an end' (Business Insider)
   
• Google DeepMind is worried about what happens when millions of agents start to interact (MIT Technology Review)
   
• China builds a rival satellite constellation as SpaceX goes public (Rest of World)

This newsletter was compiled by Matthew Strozier and Zachary Cole.

Share your tips, comments and questions: vcnews@wsj.com

The team: Matthew Strozier, Yuliya Chernova, Brian Gormley and Sarah Klearman.

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