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The Morning Risk Report: Trump Regulator Moves to Drop Case That Drew Ire of Winklevoss Twins

By Richard Vanderford | Dow Jones Risk Journal

 

Good morning. Last year, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss lobbied the Trump administration to undo a settlement between their cryptocurrency exchange and Biden-era regulators.

On Wednesday, the president’s regulators delivered.

  • Dropping the case: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that is poised to take the lead on overseeing much of the emerging cryptocurrency market, said it was moving to vacate its prior action against the exchange, Gemini.
     
  • How could we? The CFTC said it had completed a comprehensive review of the matter and concluded that its enforcement action never should have been brought. The regulator called into question the credibility of a whistleblower account and the strength of the evidence its attorneys had collected.
     
  • Ending the ‘hunt’: The Winklevoss twins in January 2025 had reluctantly agreed to pay $5 million to settle with the CFTC, which accused Gemini of making false statements in connection with a bitcoin futures launch on another exchange. But after Trump’s inauguration, like many crypto entrepreneurs, they launched a heated lobbying campaign, arguing that they were the victims of “7 years of lawfare trophy hunting.”
 
Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
Most Family Businesses Expect Leadership Transition Soon. Few Have a Plan.

CEO succession isn’t just about continuity—it’s a safeguard. Yet most family businesses treat it as optional, not essential. Read More

More Risk & Compliance articles from Deloitte
 

Compliance

Michele Spagnuolo used sophisticated techniques to attempt to mask his identity, said the Justice Department.

Online sleuthing helped catch the ‘Google insider’ on Polymarket.

Federal prosecutors charged Michele Spagnuolo, a Google software engineer, with fraud and money laundering for using internal data to make Polymarket bets.

Amateur sleuthing on social media identified Spagnuolo’s suspicious activity, aiding law enforcement in tackling insider trading on prediction markets.

 

A ‘salami incident’ has JPMorgan Chase on the hook for $4.25 million.

Buffalo wings. Pickles. Deli meats. A few cookies.

JPMorgan Chase was recently ordered to pay $4.25 million for this spread from a deli in Los Angeles, all as part of a wrongful termination case involving a 2024 Super Bowl party gone awry.

 ‏‏‎ ‎
  • The U.S. Treasury Department began its efforts to scrub its sanctions lists of obsolete entries, removing sanctions on 76 targets, Risk Journal reports (free link).
     
  • A federal regulator is pushing pause on its review of the blockbuster merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, imperiling the timetable of their $71.5 billion railroad deal.
     
  • A former New York-based employee of TD Bank pleaded guilty to defrauding customers and bribing other employees to falsify bank records, facilitating more than $3.4 million in fraud.
     
  • Disney’s ABC on Thursday complied with the Federal Communications Commission’s order to file for early license renewals for its eight local broadcast stations, but pushed back on the regulatory agency’s demands, calling them unconstitutional.
     
  • The European Union opened an in-depth foreign subsidies probe into Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com’s planned $2.6 billion takeover of German retail company Ceconomy.
 ‏‏‎ ‎
$965 Billion

The new valuation of Anthropic following a funding round.

 

Risk

The deal now gaining momentum likely would force President Trump’s administration to step back from some of its war aims. Photo: Samuel Corum/Press Pool

U.S. and Iran have ‘makings of a deal,’ Bessent says.

The U.S. and Iran are within reach of an agreement to wind down the war, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday, but President Trump has yet to sign off on it, and the White House wants a deal that satisfies several key conditions.

Among Tehran’s demands have been the unfreezing of assets held abroad under U.S. sanctions, continued Iranian control of how the strait is managed, including whether some kind of fees would eventually be charged to vessels passing through. Iran also wants the end of the conflict to include a durable ceasefire in Lebanon.

  • How Long Can Iran Withstand the Economic Pain of the U.S. Blockade?
 

Financial firms still catching up on trade sanctions, U.K. regulator says.

Trade sanctions compliance programs at financial services firms operating in the U.K. are still maturing, the Financial Conduct Authority said.

A review of more than 150 companies found controls focused on U.K. financial sanctions—which restrict money flows—were more comprehensive than those focused on the country’s trade sanctions restricting the movement of goods, the country’s main financial regulator said on Thursday.

 
  • China is exporting its factories across the world and spooking the competition.
     
  • Beijing threatened to launch trade probes against the European Union if the 27-member bloc pushes ahead with a proposal to curb imports of heavily subsidized foreign products.
     
  • Canada said it is willing to address worries raised by some of the world’s biggest technology companies about proposed legislation to give police access to information stored on digital devices.
     
  • French AI company Mistral AI is accelerating superintelligence development to ensure Europe’s independence from U.S. tech giants.
     
  • French inflation this month climbed to its highest level in more than two years as energy prices continued to rise in response to the war in Iran, putting the European Central Bank on course to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 when it next meets in June.
     
  • An armed Russian drone crashed into a residential building in NATO member Romania early Friday, drawing fierce condemnation from the alliance and stoking fears that Russia will attempt to spread violence beyond Ukraine.
     
  • Aluminum—used in everything from Ford F-150 trucks to soda cans—hasn’t risen in price as much as crude oil, liquefied natural gas or fertilizer since the Middle East conflict began. Some industry experts warn aluminum’s rally is far from done.
 ‏‏‎ ‎

“We perhaps have the makings of a deal here.”

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the possibility of an agreement to wind down the Iran war.
 

Podcast

Prediction markets face an escalating fight after Minnesota moved to criminalize many of their operations.

Also, data centers have begun to make enormous water demands in an increasingly drought-stressed America. Perry Cleveland-Peck hosts.

You can listen to new episodes every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon.

 

What Else Matters

  • AI is changing how consultants get paid, BCG’s CEO says.
     
  • Christina Ho, a former U.S. audit regulator, joined Oath, a new venture-backed accounting firm aiming to automate 80% of its work with AI.
     
  • The Trump administration has been holding talks about putting President Trump’s face on a newly created $250 bill.
     
  • Gen Z can’t get enough of Roth IRAs.
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About Us

Follow us on X at @WSJRisk. Send tips to our reporters Max Fillion at max.fillion@dowjones.com and Richard Vanderford at richard.vanderford@wsj.com.

You can also reach us by replying to any newsletter, or by emailing our editor David Smagalla at david.smagalla@wsj.com.

 
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