The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration’s tariffs and consumer spending slowed. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation slowed down in March, going by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, showing that price pressures were easing before the steep new tariffs landed in early April. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan held its benchmark policy rate steady at 0.5% and halved its growth forecast for the Japanese economy as U.S. tariffs begin to bite.

• The Rush to Beat Tariffs Is Distorting the Economy. There’s More to Come.
• China-to-U.S. Container Shipments Shrink as Tariffs Bite

The personal-consumption-expenditures price index rose by 2.3% in the 12 months through March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, the coolest reading since last fall. Excluding highly variable food and energy prices, core PCE inflation came in at 2.6%.

Hiring in the U.S. private sector slowed markedly amid growing policy uncertainty. Just 62,000 jobs were created in April, down from 147,000 in March, according to the ADP National Employment report released Wednesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected hiring to slow less sharply to 120,000 extra positions on the month.

• U.S. trade policy could force the Bank of Japan to change its economic outlook again, Gov. Kazuo Ueda said after the central bank halved its growth forecast for the year. "Given a relatively low degree of certainty in our outlook, there's a considerable chance that we have to adjust our forecasts, depending on changes in factors including tariffs," Ueda said at a news conference. (Dow Jones Newswires)

• Canada GDP Ticks Up After 0.2% Decline in February

7:30 a.m.: Challenger U.S. Job-Cut Report
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On U.S. Business Manufacturing PMI

8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI

It tells us even less about the broader impact of President Trump’s tariffs, federal cutbacks and immigration crackdown. For that, we’ll have to await April data, starting with jobs and unemployment to be released Friday.

Instead, Chinese policymakers are hoping to stabilize the yuan, which is already facing downward pressure because of U.S. levies and a gloomy growth outlook. A stable currency could help Beijing cast itself as a reliable trading partner for the world amid President Trump’s upending of global trade.

• The Trump administration reached a deal Wednesday with Ukraine giving the U.S. access to its mineral wealth, overcoming last-minute haggling that had held up an agreement President Trump had sought to compensate the U.S. for helping Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion.
• The number of completed but unsold new homes sitting on their lots has reached the highest levels since 2009. Affordability is already so stretched that builders have been offering sweeteners including mortgage-rate buydowns, price cuts and design upgrades to get deals over the line.
• An early sign of future home sales climbed in March, logging its biggest monthly increase since December 2023. It’s a sign that home buyers are eager for deals—but it doesn’t mean the housing market is roaring back to life. Pending home sales increased a seasonally adjusted 6.1% in March from the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said. (Barron's)
• U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week as exports increased and refineries raised their capacity use, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• Major Wall Street banks significantly cut their oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year amid growing fears that a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China will weaken global demand at a time when OPEC+ is increasing production.
• The Treasury Department said it wouldn't change its note-and-bond auctions for the next three months. It also maintained forward guidance, saying it expects no changes in its auctions “for at least the next several quarters.”
• Beijing-backed social media accounts say U.S. officials have reached out to Chinese counterparts through multiple channels to discuss trade, as the world watches for any sign of tariff talks between the two sides.
• Chinese automakers’ latest monthly sales show that demand for electric vehicles in the world’s second-largest economy remains strong, with Tesla rivals such as XPeng posting robust April numbers.
• South Korea’s exports unexpectedly expanded for a third consecutive month in April, even as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have started to hurt international trade.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to Hardika.Singh@wsj.com.