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Asia in Review

(2/3/2019)

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Reader,

Welcome to the second issue of Asia in Review (AiR) in March 2019 providing you an update on the latest developments in law, politics and international relations in Asia.

I hope you enjoy an informative reading!

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Self-critical statements in opening speech of ‘two sessions’

(dql) In his speech last Tuesday, opening the ‘two sessions’, the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Premier Li Keqiang voiced self-critical statements on the country’s current development which he described as “complicated and serious”, “not seen to this extent for many years”. His review of the government work in 2018 highlighted, besides increased instability and uncertainties in foreign relations, domestic challenges including “the increased pressure of the economic slowdown, the slowdown of consumption acceleration, […], the weakness in innovation capacities”, while “problems related to shortcomings in essential technology has become apparent”. He further confirmed “dissatisfaction among the mass of population in a number of areas including education, medical treatment, elderly care, housing, food and drug safety, as well as income distribution” and acknowledged that “government work is currently insufficient” due to persistent formalism and bureaucratism in implementing reform policies.

Despite this year’s focus on “risks” and problems which stands in stark contrast to the 2018 congress, when the tone was upbeat, Li’s speech retains an uncompromising demand for absolute loyalty towards President Xi Jinping calling his “Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era” the guidance to “face hardship and raise, and to forge ahead […] to realize the Chinese Dream of the grand rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” [Xinhua, in Chinese]

China: Extent of restrictions on religious activities in Tibet revealed

(dql) Just days before the 60th anniversary of Tibet’s uprising against Beijing’s rule on 10 March, the mayor of its capital Lhasa in a rare move made public the extent to which religious activities are restricted in the spiritual centre of Tibetan Buddhism confirming “a clear-cut stand in eliminating the negative influence the Dalai Lama exerted via religion and took great effort in ridding the passive religious influence” by reducing the number of days spent observing religious events, and the number of people attending them, to less than 10 per cent. Although it was not clear if the figure referred to the entire year and the entire Lhasa population, the vast infringement on religious life in Tibet is apparent. [South China Morning Post]

Japan: Cabinet endorses legal reform to ban harassment in workplace

(dql) Japan’s cabinet last week approved legal changes outlawing any form of workplace harassment. Furthermore, the revisions oblige firms to prevent abuses of power or bullying, prohibit disadvantageous treatment of workers who report they are the target of sexual harassment, and require firms whose employees sexually harass someone at another company to make sufficient efforts to cooperate with that company in investigating the case. The legislation, however, falls short of setting punitive measures to be taken against violators.  [Japan Today]

South Korea: Parliamentary work resumed

(dql) After a two-month hiatus, south Korea's National Assembly kicked off an extraordinary session last Thursday as the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) ended its boycott of parliamentary activities earlier last week. On the agenda for deliberation are contentious bills largely on the economy and electoral reform as well as legislation on fighting fine dust. [Korea Herald] [Yonhap]

The National Assembly has been paralyzed since January as the ruling Democratic Party and the LKP clashed over allegations of government abuse of power, a controversial appointment and a former ruling party lawmaker’s purchases of properties in cultural zones.

South Korea: Plans for new internet law

(dql) According to an announcement of South Korea’s Communications Commission last week, a new law is set to be introduced in 2019 allowing the government to shut down domestic operations of foreign internet-related companies holding personal information of South Korean users, such as Google and Facebook. The new law would require foreign firms to partner up with a domestic company and to operate through it bringing them within the government’s reach.

Under current law, such foreign companies are not subject to domestic regulations on violations of user privacy or misuse of user information. While local firms had complained that this put them at disadvantage against foreign companies, human rights advocates raised concerns over the government’s move as they fear tightened control of internet service providers and users. [The Diplomat]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Dates set for parliamentary elections

(zf/ls) It was officially announced late this week that India’s parliamentary elections will take place in seven successive rounds, starting on April 11th and ending on May 19th, with May 23rd set to be the day all results will be declared. In all, a total of 543 seats are up for grabs in India’s lower house, which is locally known as the Lok Sabha. [Economic Times] [Times of India]

It was also announced that scheduled elections for the state assembly in Jammu and Kashmir will be postponed due to the ongoing threats of violence. However, Lok Sabha polls are still set to take place in the region along with the rest of the country. In a statement, the Indian government claimed that a panel of security observers will assess the situation in the state moving forward in hopes of setting an assembly election date sometime later this year. [NDTV] [Hindustan Times]

Major issues in the election are expected to be unemployment and national security. According to recent data, the unemployment rate in February this year stood at 7.2%, up from 5% in February, 2017. Meanwhile, India's farmers have staged numerous protests in recent years, amid reports of falling incomes and increasing distress in the farm sector. Due to the Indian-Pakistani tensions in recent weeks, the Kashmir issue is also likely to continue to feature prominently in campaigns. [CNN]

Despite recent election losses, Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still controls 17 out of 29 states, including the most populous (Uttar Pradesh) and the richest (Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai). However, current polls predict losses for the Modi government. A reduced majority would imperil Modi’s economic reforms and strengthen his coalition partners’ leverage, making for unstable government. [Washington Post]

India: Supreme Court orders arbitration in decades-long dispute over religious site

(zf) An arbitration panel was appointed this week by India’s Supreme Court over a decades-long dispute over a religious site in the Uttar Pradesh city of Ayodhya. The panel will be headed by former Supreme Court judge FM Kalifulla. Interestingly, the panel will also include Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, a self-described Hindu god-man who has repeatedly expressed doubt on the feasibility of the peaceful implementation of a hypothetical Supreme Court decision in favor of Muslim interests at the location. Shankar’s inclusion on the panel, therefore, has unsurprisingly generated substantial controversy. A backlash over his appointment is especially pronounced among Muslim community members who claim that his inclusion in the panel serves as a blatant disregard for fair arbitration. [NDTV]

The dispute itself revolves around the proposed construction of a Hindu temple on the location of a 16th century Mosque that was destroyed in 1992. The mosque was torn down by a Hindu mob that claimed Muslim Mughal invaders had desecrated the site by building a Mosque on a sacred temple originally built for Hindus. As evidence to the importance of the site, some Hindus claim that the location is the birthplace of Lord Ram, a prominent Hindu deity who in seen as an incarnation of Vishnu, one of Hindu’s most important gods. Others emphasize the location as an important pilgrimage site that should be restored for its original use.

On the other hand, Muslim’s claim that the site was legally purchased and built upon, while Hindu extremists had violently torn down their sacred place of worship. In the wake of the 1992 riots, some 2000 people lost their lives in communal violence, which speaks to the deep-seated baggage that the case brings with it. [Economic Times]

As for now, the arbitration panel has been given eight weeks to come to an agreement on the site. While the issue will surely be a closely followed topic, the Supreme Court has mandated that the panel work in secrecy in order not to inflame tensions, and the local media has been banned from covering the proceedings. The arbitration comes after a 2011 decision by the Supreme Court that suspended a lower court ruling to split the site into three parts, with one area dedicated for Muslim worshippers, and the other two regulated to Hindu worship. [Al Jazeera]

Sri Lanka: No intention to investigate war crimes

(ls) Sri Lanka's president Maithripala Sirisena put into doubt pledges his country had made to the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) to investigate war-time atrocities, saying he did not want to "re-open old wounds". He said he will formally ask the United Nations rights body to reconsider a 2015 resolution which called for credible investigations into alleged atrocities. A previous deadline ended without any progress in bringing war criminals to justice. Although the UNHRC can pass resolutions, it has no mandate to implement resolutions or impose sanctions. [Channel News Asia]

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe presented to cabinet a memorandum to establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, similar to what was established in post-apartheid South Africa. There was, however, no mention of any probe into alleged war crimes. Sri Lankan government troops were accused of killing at least 40,000 ethnic Tamil civilians in the final months of the island's 37-year guerrilla war that ended in May 2009. [Asia Times]

In a separate development, the United Kingdom Supreme Court, in a landmark decision, overturned a lower court’s finding that an asylum seeker from Sri Lanka organized his own torture to strengthen his claim to stay in Britain. It is expected to make it harder for authorities to say that accounts of torture are not credible where there is strong medical evidence to the contrary. [The Guardian]

Nepal: Agreement with Madhesi group to end violence

(ls) Nepali Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and CK Raut, a ‘Free Madhes’ campaigner and coordinator of the Alliance for Independent Madhes, have signed an 11-point agreement, according to which the group would cease their demands for a “free” Madhes and enter mainstream politics while the government would withdraw cases against him and his followers. Raut had for the last six years been actively demanding an independent Madhes for ‘liberation’ of the Madhesi people. However, there are several Madhesi separatist groups that are not covered by this agreement. [Kathmandu Post]

Nepal: New strict legislation to regulate social media

(ls) A new law being introduced by the Nepali government will give the authorities powers to block social media platforms and remove or prosecute defamatory posts. The government has also tabled legislation that restricts civil servants from sharing their views in the media including social media sites. The Information Technology Bill would impose harsh sanctions for “improper” social media posts. The law also prohibits speeches and writing that are considered “contrary to the policies of the Government of Nepal or to undermine mutual relationship between the Government of Nepal and the people or the relationship with any foreign country”. Civil rights groups have strongly criticized the bill. [Himalayan Times]

Human Rights Watch urges Bangladesh to investigate garment workers’ mass dismissal

(cc) Human Rights Watch has urged Bangladesh to immediately investigate the dismissal and false criminal cases of garment workers. Following the massive protests of December and January, union leaders said that at least 7,500 people lost their jobs. The international NGO describes the “use of criminal complaints against large number of “unknown” people” as being a widespread abusive practice in the South Asian State. The rights group calls brands that produce in Bangladesh to push for the end of the intimidation of workers by the garment industry. [HRW] [Dhaka Tribune]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysia:  Malaysia joins International Criminal Court (ICC)

(jk) On Monday last week, Malaysia ratified the Rome Statute and with that, joined the International Criminal Court (ICC), becoming its 124th state party. The ICC is a permanent international court focusing on serious human rights crimes such as crimes against humanity, war crimes, or genocide.  The court has jurisdiction in cases in which states that have ratified the Rome Statue – or voluntarily accept the court’s jurisdiction - are unable or unwilling to pursue a case. [ICC]

Among the ASEAN member states, Cambodia was the first to ratify the Rome Statute in 2002, before the Philippines ratified the Statute in 2011. With Malaysia joining, three Southeast Asian nations will be party to the statue, however, the Philippines have declared their intention to withdraw over the court’s reactions to President Duterte’s war on drugs. The Philippines are due to withdraw next week, most likely taking the number of Southeast Asian member states back to two. [Verfassungsblog]

ASEAN member states have long quibbled over sovereignty issues with regards to the court, which is supposed to work under the principle of complementarity to domestic justice, but does have the power to investigate without an explicit referral by a state party and is difficult to reconcile with ASEAN’s strict policy preference of non-interference.

Malaysia has a number of reasons for joining the ICC, including concerns over the yet to be resolved Rohingya refugee crisis or Malaysia’s position as a force in the international system. PM Mahathir’s ambitions for Malaysia to make a mark and play a more active role in ASEAN, as well as his image as a reformer of traditional Malay politics play a role domestically. [The Interpreter, ABS-CBN] The accession marks the ICC's first new member state since 2016 and provides a welcomed counter-narrative to the trend of ICC withdrawals. Especially in Asia, where the court has very little clout, this is significant.

In related news, the [SCMP] has published an interview with the Malaysian PM on a wide range of issues, including great power politics as well as domestic issues with regards to his predecessor in particular.

Thailand: Thai Raksa Chart party dissolved ahead of elections

(jk) The Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the Thai Raksa Chart Party for naming a member of the Royal Family as its prime ministerial candidate. [The Nation] According the court’s decision, this undermined Thailand’s constitutional monarchy which is “above politics” and therefore violated the Political Party Act of 2017. In addition to the dissolution of the party that had fielded candidates for parliament in around 170 of the 350 constituencies across the country, plus around 100 party list candidates [Bangkok Post], its executive board members are banned from politics for 10 years. The MP candidates will now be out of the race, since they cannot run under a different party. According to the regulations, a candidate for parliament needs to me member of the party he or she is running for at least 90 days. The elections are scheduled for March 24.

The decision, which was largely expected after the Election Commission had asked the court to rule on the party’s dissolution back in February, affects the possible size of a potential Puea Thai-led coalition in parliament and increases the chances of a coalition backing current PM Prayuth.

For images of election posters captioned with English translations of names and slogans of parties, see [CPG foto feature].

Thailand: Democrat party leader Abhisit against Prayuth as PM after elections

(jk) Democrat Party leader and the only Democrat Party candidate for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva made clear last weekend that he is not in favour of current PM Prayut Chan-o-cha returning to power as prime minister after the elections. In a video he uploaded to his Facebook page, he said he "will definitely not support Gen Prayut because [his] prolonged stay in power will create conflicts and it is against my party's ideology which puts the people first". It is not clear, as pointed out by his political rivals also in opposition to the current PM, whether this statement reflects his personal or the party line. [Bangkok Post]

Philippines: Changes to Filipino work policy regarding both foreign in-country workers and domestic workers abroad

(zf) According to an official statement made by the Philippine’s Department of Labor and Employment, foreign workers will be required to secure a work visa prior to their employment in-country. The government says the move is intended to help curb high levels of illegal immigration, and especially those who overstay tourist visas and work undocumented. The new requirements will also stipulate that the employer must be able to demonstrate that the potential employee will assume a role unable to be filled by Filipinos. [Philippine Star]

In related news, it was announced that Manila plans to cut back the number of domestic skilled workers that are eligible for foreign employment by as much as 90%. The policy change will be enacted as a move meant to reduce labor-shortage problems in a fast-moving economy, and as a means to promote Duterte Administration “Build, Build, Build” initiatives that look to keep the fast-moving construction boom moving apace. The new rules will especially effect workers in the infrastructure sector, including those in construction, architecture, and engineering. [Gulf News]

Philippines: Drug war in the spotlight as midterm elections draw near

(zf) As the Filipino midterms slated for May draw near, President Rodrigo Duterte is highlighting his hardline—and often violent—policy against the illegal drug trade. In the latest move, Duterte has vowed to publicly expose elected officials who he alleges are complicit in the trade. The statement, however, has garnered a backlash among some observers who claim that it would be a threat against the basic rights of accused individuals, and especially due to the threat of violence against the accused, irrespective of whether that person might stand trial for alleged crimes. These concerns are not without merit, as three out of the nine mayors and vice mayors murdered by vigilantes in the country last year were accused of participating in the drug trade. Duterte claims that the public’s right to know outweighs concerns over the individual rights of the accused. However, that view doesn’t seem to be the consensus view in Manila, and already there has been some walking-back of the potential announcement, with the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency chief expressing doubt over the utility of divulging the names of suspected persons before thorough investigations are complete. Over the course of his term, Duterte has made the drug scourge a defining issue of his presidency, and has repeatedly vowed to rid the country of those who are a part of it. As the midterms move closer, it is expected that Duterte continue to emphasize what he perceives to be substantial anti-narco accomplishments. [NPR]

Indonesia ranked 2nd most dangerous place for women in Asia-Pacific

(cc) According to the findings of a research company based in Singapore, Indonesia is the second most dangerous country for women in Asia and the Pacific. Following the rape and murder of a 14 year-old in 2016, a bill on sexual violence is in discussion in Parliament but religious conservatives oppose strong resistance, notably on the definition of rape and the criminalization of marital rape. [Straitstimes]

Indonesia: Deaths after violence in Papua

(jk) In a clash last week between Indonesian soldiers and a separatist group, three of the soldiers and between seven and ten rebels were killed. The attack on the soldiers is thought to have been conducted by the National Liberation Army of West Papua, which also claimed responsibility for an attack on construction workers at a jungle camp last year. [Channel News Asia]

Indonesia: Amnesty International’s activist arrested for insulting the military

(cc/jk) Last week a board member of Amnesty International Indonesia was arrested by the Indonesian police for comparing a plan by the government to allow senior military officers to hold civilian positions in government institutions with the New Order Era under former President Suharto. He could face up to 18 months imprisonment for intentionally insult a public institution. For Amnesty International, his arrest is “not only a clear threat to the freedom of speech and expression in Indonesia, but also poses a threat for human rights activists in general". [Straitstimes]

The plan was alleged to be a regression towards the military’s dual function doctrine which saw military influence in the government institutionalized. So far, it is supported by President Jokowi and would allow underemployed military personnel to take jobs in ministerial and civilian institutions. The legislation is still only in the early stages of discussion. [ATimes]

Laos: National Green Growth Strategy takes shape, government considers imposing new tariffs on polluting companies

(zf) Earlier this year, President Sisoulith announced a government plan to endorse a set of policy goals aimed at ensuring the clean development of Laos’ economy in the coming decades. While specifics of the plan, called the National Green Growth Strategy, are still being fleshed out, it is a sure sign that Laos plans to take a lead in promoting clean energy in the region. Under the proposed policy direction, the government aims to give tax breaks to industries that utilize practices deemed safe and sustainable for the environment, while imposing higher tariffs on those that fail to meet those standards. Officials have made clear that details regarding the proposed tariffs have yet to be finalized. However, the move is in line with other efforts to follow through with the new policy, which includes lower loan rates on green companies, and a monetary policy directive that gives investment incentives toward cleaner industry. At current rates, the government imposes a 24% tax on all company profits within the country, with extra excise, value-added, and income taxes on top of that. [Vientiane Times]

Myanmar: New report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of Human Rights/World Justice Project - Global Rule of Law Index

(cc/jk) The Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar published her latest report on Tuesday on the situation in Myanmar despite being barred from entering the country for her research. The UN official warned against “institutionalized” hate speech, especially in the education system, “[f]or example, there is a fourth-grade lesson on 'Wunthanu Spirit', meaning nationalistic and patriotic spirit. The lesson says 'we loathe those of mixed blood, for they prohibit the progression of a race”. She also expressed concerns over the repatriation process of the Rohingya refugee, currently living in camps in Bangladesh and criticized the “safe zones” wanted by Bangladesh inside Rakhine State as the country says it cannot welcome more refugees. The report also highlights the high number of cases of people in jail for their political activities. She recommended sanctions against two military-owned and military-affiliated companies, the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL) and the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC). [Al Jazeera][The Irrawaddy]

The report comes amid the recent publication of the global rule of law index of the World for 2019 Justice Project in which Myanmar ranks 110 out of 126 countries. [Myanmar Times] It is the second- lowest ranking member of eight ranked ASEAN states (Brunei and Lao are not ranked) ahead of Cambodia, with Singapore at the opposite end of the ASEAN table. After Singapore and before the last two is Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines in that order. [World Justice Project]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Beijing backs Huawei’s lawsuit against US

(dql) Amid ongoing trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington, China’s Foreign Ministry voiced support for Huawei’s move last week to sue the US over its ban on US government agencies purchasing Huawei equipment or services, claiming the ban is unconstitutional. [CNBC]

Asked at a press conference on Huawei’s legal action, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called recent moves “against Chinese enterprises and individuals […] deliberate political suppression” to counter which China would “continue to take all necessary measures to resolutely defend the Chinese enterprises’ and citizens’ legitimate rights and interests.” [Xinhua, in Chinese]

South Korea-USA relations: Deal on defense cost for deployed U.S. troops signed

(dql) Following rounds of laborious negotiations since last year, Washington and Seoul last Friday signed a defense cost deal which would increase Seoul’s financial contribution for the deployment of U.S. troops in the Asian country from 830 million USD last year to 924 million USD in 2019.

Japan-Korea relations: Tokyo considers retaliatory measures over wartime forced labor dispute 

(dql) Fuelling tensions between Japan and South Korea, Tokyo is reportedly considering raising tariffs on South Korean products and other measures in response to the seizure and possible sale of assets from two Japanese companies that were ordered by the South Korean Supreme Court last year to pay compensation to South Korean victims of forced labour during wartime. [AiR 3/1/2019]

According to sources, Japan has already compiled of list of around 100 items for possible retaliatory actions, including tariff hikes, suspension in the supply of some Japanese products and visa issuance restrictions. [Japan Times]

Japan’s Self-Defense Force:  New type of patrol ship planned

(dql) According to government sources, a plan is underway to start in 2020 construction of a new type of Maritime Self-Defense Force patrol ship, to be mainly used for reconnaissance and surveillance activities in territorial waters. The government aims to have 12 such patrol ships over the next 10 years. [Japan News]

For a critical assessment of Japan’s neglect in SDF personnel recruitment policy see Grant Newsham in [Japan Forward].

Cross-Strait Relations: Tsai Ying-wen announces guidelines against Beijing’s “one country, two systems” unification formula

(dql) Asserting Taiwan’s sovereignty, President Tsai Ying-wen at a national security meeting on Monday laid out guidelines to counter Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for unification, as reiterated by Xi Jinping in his January 2 “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”. The guidelines include the principle of equal dignity in cross-strait relations; the amendment to the Act Governing Relations Between People of the Taiwan Area and Mainland Area, including a swift completion of the legal framework enabling the establishment of a network to protect democracy; linking up with the international community to counter China’s denial of Taiwan’s sovereignty; and preventing China’s media manipulation targeting Taiwan. [Focus Taiwan] [Apple Daily, in Chinese]

India: Violence continues in Kashmir; doubt over Indian success claims after air-raid site confirmed standing

(zf/ls) In a sign that a resolution to the violence in Kashmir is making little progress, another attack this week by a Pakistani-based militant group in Jammu killed one person and injured over 30 others. This attack comes just weeks after the Pulwama terrorist attack, which set off a wave of escalating tensions between the two nuclear-capable states and left the internationally community fearing uncontrollable escalations of violence might be imminent. While the worst-case scenario of sustained cross-border war seems less likely at this juncture, the continued violence will certainty do little to curb Indian hard-liners bent on revenge.

With that said, some details pertaining to the latest attack speak to the complicated nature of the situation: While the group who claimed responsibility for the attack was based in Pakistan, the individual who carried out the attack was a Kashmiri Indian national, just as in Pulwama. While it has been regularly reported that some Indian citizens have been radicalized in Kashmir, especially based on arguments that Delhi has imposed on them a life of oppressive militarization, this contradicts arguments given by some news outlets and other hard-liners in India who frame the issue solely in terms of Pakistani aggression. [Reuters] [Economic Times] [Hindustan Times] 

Meanhwile, Pakistan intensified its crackdown against Islamist militants on Thursday, with the government announcing it had taken control of 182 religious schools and detained more than 100 people as part of its push against banned groups. The move represents Pakistan’s biggest move against banned organizations in years. However, many of the groups are popular among the poor because they operate networks of charities. Some groups have also enjoyed the support of the military and intelligence services. [Reuters 2] [Arab News]

In a related development, it has been reported that some air-raid sites that India claims to have destroyed following Pulwama are still standing, as per satellite imaging evidence that has been reviewed by several news outlets. The images, originally produced by a U.S.-based private satellite operator called Planet Labs, Inc., purport to show that a religious school in northeastern Pakistan run by the terrorist group responsible for last month’s attack appears to be unscathed. This comes after repeated claims by the Indian government that its air force had destroyed the group’s terrorist training faculties at the site.

The evidence seems to buttress Pakistan’s version of events, where it is claimed that India failed to produce damage to Pakistani-based infrastructure. The Indian government has yet to respond to inquires as to whether this evidence undermines their official narrative of events. While speculation over Indian obfuscation regarding its counter-insurgency raids are a fraught subject in the absence of further corroborating evidence, it is conceivable that Indian officials were eager to claim victory after the raids as a means to placate the nationalist voices calling for severe escalations, and to give the government tangible cover regarding an appropriate response to the attack in the run up to next month’s parliamentary elections. [Reuters 3]

Uncertain future of the “Quad”

(ls) Admiral Phil Davidson, who heads the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, suggested on Thursday that the so-called Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), a loose security grouping of the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, may be shelved for now. Davidson referred, in particular, to remarks made by the Indian Navy chief who did not see any immediate potential of the Quad. However, on Friday, a Pentagon spokesperson said the U.S. will continue to have regular diplomatic meetings to “coordinate our respective visions of and efforts in the Indo-Pacific region.” [Times of India] [Indian Express]

The United States and the other three countries had come together to provide humanitarian assistance after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe then suggested to form the Quad, which met three years later. The meetings stopped for a decade after China formally reached out to each country to seek information on the meetings’ purpose. The Quad then met again in 2017. India had stressed in the past that the Quad was not a military grouping. [The Diplomat]

India to lease Russian submarine

(ls) India has sealed a USD 3 billion deal with Russia for leasing of a nuclear-powered attack submarine for the Indian Navy for a period of 10 years. It will be the third Russian submarine to be leased to the Indian Navy. Russia, India’s cold war ally, remains a major supplier of arms to India, irritating the United States, which has imposed sanctions on nations buying military hardware from Moscow. India has been significantly bolstering its naval prowess in the backdrop of China's attempts to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean region. [Economic Times] [South China Morning Post]

U.S.-Indian trade relations face uncertainty as India insists on Iranian oil imports (zf) As AiR has reported last month, the Trump Administration plans to end the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India, an economic agreement that gives the country’s companies preferential access to U.S. markets, reasoning that Delhi has not been as accommodating as it should be regarding reciprocal access for U.S. companies in the Indian marketplace. [CNN]

The matter may be further complicated by Indian efforts to maintain its relationship with Iranian oil producers. As it stands, India is one of several countries that have negotiated a waiver with the U.S. to continue buying Iranian oil after the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and re-imposed harsh sanctions on the country, albeit in lower quantities. Although this round of wavers is set to expire in May, India made it clear this week that it wants to extend the deal. The U.S., however, has been pushing hard to reduce international purchases of Iranian oil as a means to further isolate the country after allegedly undermining the non-proliferation treaty.

It remains to be seen, however, how successful the U.S. will be in this endeavor, especially since its exit from the treaty was a generally unpopular move among allies who had likely assumed Iran would be open for business in the coming decades. When asked about the waiver extensions, a U.S. spokesman confirmed that the government is in ongoing discussions with the relevant countries to negotiate an agreed upon settlement of the issue, and reiterated that the U.S. supports eventually cutting Iranian exports with these countries to zero. [Reuters]

After India and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is to continue South Asian investments in Bangladesh

(cc/ls) Bangladesh’s finance Minister said the country is expecting $35 billion of Saudi investment mostly in roads, rail, power and energy, tourism and hospitality, health, textiles, food processing and pharmaceuticals. However, no timeline has been given by the government and the current bilateral trade is worth only $1.4 Billion per year. Under Prime Minister Hasina, the ties between the two Muslim-majority countries have been reinforced. Saudia Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Salman recently also committed his country to major investments in India and Pakistan. [Reuters]

South China Sea tensions: Vietnam, Philippines, US, China

(jk) Tensions have gone up again this past week with regards to the South China Sea. Vietnam is investigating the sinking of a fishing vessel, which according to a local rescue agency was rammed by a Chinese vessel causing it to sink. The incident happened near the Paracel islands, claimed by both Vietnam and China [NewsCorpAustralia]. The reports have not been confirmed by the Chinese side, instead there was a claim that a Chinese vessel had approached the sunken ship after it capsized and issued a distress call. According to some experts, (ramming) incidents like this happen regularly but are rarely reported widely in the international news media [VOA].

In the Philippines, the focus was on US Secretary of State Pompeo’s visit after the Philippine Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana has repeatedly said that the mutual defense treaty between the two countries would need to be reviewed. There is not only the questions of whether the US would come to the Philippines defence in the case of a war over South China Sea features, but also vice-versa, so whether it is wise for the Philippines to being bound to come to the US’ help should they be involved in a shooting war in the region. [Stripes]

Pompeo during his visit, gave assurance in Manila on the applicability of the treaty to Philippine forces in the South China Sea. “China’s island building and military activities in the South China Sea threaten sovereignty [of the Philippines], security and therefore economic livelihood, as well as that of the United States”. He went on to say that “as the South China Sea is part of the Pacific, any armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea will trigger mutual defense obligations under Article 4 of our mutual defense treaty”. [Rappler] The Chinese ambassador in the meantime assured that the People’s Republic of China was not out to attack anyone in the South China Sea, stressing that the PRC is seeking peace and stability but they were worried about attacks from “the other side”. [Manila Times]

Singaporean to buy up to 12 F-35 US fighter jets

(jk) The Singaporean Defence Minister announced a plan to buy up to 12 F-35 last week before parliament. The move would see Singapore’s Air Force upgrading from F-16 fighter jets and would be a substantial capability boost and only the fourth country in Asia to have the F-35 (the other are Australia, Japan and South Korea). The deal currently awaits Congressional approval. US media has interpreted the deal as being directed at China [CNN], but Singapore’s Ministry of Defence has stated it was solely for Singapore’s own defence and not directed at any one country. [Strait Times]

Background Reading

Philippines: Extremist foothold remains stubborn scourge in the restive south despite ISIS failures in the Middle East

(zf) As ISIS continues to haemorrhage territory and influence in the Middle East, some areas in the southern Philippines remain stubborn hotspots of extremist ideology. Despite concerns from analysts and observers, however, the government has mostly sought to downplay the issue, claiming that the groups consist of misguided and disillusioned young people, not international terrorists. The reality is much more complicated: reporting has confirmed the existence of international money and personnel flows among the groups, and some openly display the ISIS flag while claiming to be members of ISIS’ East Asia province. This piece gives some background information on these issues, highlighting the different reactions and responses to the scourge of Filipino extremism. [New York Times]

Implications of a Ma’ruf Amin Vice-Presidency in Indonesia

(jk) Indonesian President Joko Widodo has last year decided to make 75-year-old Islamic scholar Ma’ruf Amin his running mate for next year’s presidential election. Amin is the head of the Indonesian Ulema Council, the top Muslim clerical body in Indonesia and was heavily involved in the scandal and subsequent prison sentence of ethnic Chinese Christian candidate “Ahok” who lost to Anies Baswedan in a bid to become governor of Jakarta in 2017. Making Amin his running mate for 2019 is largely viewed as an effort to make sure Jokowi appeals to the traditional Muslim vote for the presidential elections this year. With recent polls indicating the duo has a comfortable lead, this piece looks at the possible implications of this particular vice-presidency and in particular at possible further “islamization” of the Indonesian society. [ISEAS]

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