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Imports Seen Slipping Into 2026; U.S. Seizes Oil Tanker Off Venezuela; Critical-Minerals Alchemy

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

A semi-truck drives past Chinese containers at the Port of Los Angeles. MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS

Imports into the U.S. are down and will likely continue to decline next year, though they aren't expected to fall off a cliff as goods produced in Southeast Asia help make up for a drop in imports from China, the head of the busiest American container port tells the WSJ Logistics Report.

Furniture, a growing variety of footwear and consumer electronics—aside from cellphones—are among the products U.S. importers are sourcing more from Vietnam and other nations in the region, said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. This continues a yearslong shift, with around 40% of imports into the port originating in China now, down from about 60% in 2018, he said.

November container imports into the Port of L.A. came to about 404,000 20-foot-equivalent units, down from just over 458,000 a year earlier. Seroka echoed the National Retail Federation in saying he expects imports to continue to slip lower in 2026.  Comparisons next year could be skewed, however, by the large amount of goods companies brought in earlier this year to stock up before expected new tariffs took effect.

Chinese exports diverted from the U.S. are increasingly headed to Europe, West Africa and Latin America. While global trade flows have shown surprising strength in the face of President Trump’s tariffs, that resilience could be strained if these Chinese products diverted from the U.S. flood other markets at knock-down prices, The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Hannon writes.

This diversion is threatening to sour relations between the European Union and China and open a second front in the global trade war. French President Emmanuel Macron recently warned that the EU might have to “withdraw cooperation” and resort to higher tariffs.

 
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Quotable

“Chinese trade data suggest that the trend of China redirecting exports to Europe, often at dumping prices, will accelerate.”

—Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Bank
 

Maritime Security

A video posted by Attorney General Pam Bondi shows armed U.S. taking control of a tanker off Venezuela’s coast. U.S. ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE/X/via AP

The U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, marking a major escalation in the administration’s pressure campaign against the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Attorney General Pam Bondi said the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations and the U.S. Coast Guard executed a seizure warrant for the tanker with support from the Defense Department.

The Venezuelan government called the seizure blatant theft and an international act of piracy. A Pentagon official said the move was a warning to other tankers waiting to dock and load up Venezuelan crude. Maritime tracking data show around a dozen off the Venezuelan coast, but the official said others have their Automatic Identification System turned off to avoid detection.

 
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Critical Materials

Brimstone researchers test alumina and other air-sensitive mineral samples under controlled conditions. POPPY LYNCH for WSJ

A startup called Brimstone is using proprietary chemistry and off-the-shelf equipment to process gabbro—an unremarkable, cheap and abundant rock—to produce aluminum, magnesium and other minerals frequently imported from China.

The Journal’s Heather Somerville writes that Brimstone’s efforts, which haven’t previously been reported, are part of a nationwide push to develop American sources of raw materials that China dominates. Any effort with a shot at success is focused on making the outputs cheaper to produce, softening China’s edge.

Brimstone’s CEO says its approach of using the same precursor rock, equipment and chemical process for a range of minerals yields costs that are 40% less than traditional methods. Once operating at full scale, its energy costs will be 30% to 50% cheaper, he said.

  • Ionic Mineral Technologies says it found significant critical-mineral reserves in Utah, with high grades of 16 different types of minerals including lithium, alumina and niobium. (WSJ) 
 

Number of the Day

1.4 Billion

Barrels of oil either on their way to port or that haven’t found a buyer, an “on the water” glut that is 24% higher than the average for this time of year between 2016 and 2024, according to Vortexa

 

In Other News

  • China’s consumer inflation gained pace in November, with the CPI rising 0.7% from a year earlier, while factory deflation accelerated, with the producer price index dropping 2.2%. (WSJ)
  • The IMF warned China that its manufacturing dominance risks exacerbating global trade tensions, urging a shift toward domestic consumption. (WSJ)
  • Asia’s economies have fared better than expected in a year dominated by U.S. tariff threats but growth will slow next year, the Asian Development Bank said. (WSJ)
  • The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement could take a new form after its renegotiation next year, the U.S. trade chief said, raising the possibility of separate deals or side agreements with each nation. (WSJ)
  • The U.S. will place a 10% tariff on imports from Nicaragua starting in 2027 after determining that alleged human rights abuses there restrict commerce. (Bloomberg)
  • Gas-turbine maker GE Vernova, which has been riding an AI-driven boom in power demand, boosted its growth outlook and planned increased payouts to investors. (WSJ)
  • Amazon plans to invest $35 billion in India over five years, following Microsoft’s $17.5 billion spending plan for the next four years, as the nation’s appeal grows as an AI and cloud hub. (WSJ)
  • Instacart shares fell after a report accused the company, also known as Maplebear, of charging different prices for the same items. (WSJ)
  • Auto-parts maker Toyota Boshoku has opened a $225 million “smart plant” in western Kentucky to produce components for Toyota Motor vehicles. (Courier-Journal)
  • U.K. shipbuilder Babcock plans to make more components for Virginia-class attack submarines for U.S. contractor Huntington Ingalls Industries. (The Maritime Executive)
  • The U.S. operations of Contract Freighters, or CFI, will be rebranded under parent company Heartland Express’s name effective Dec. 31. (TruckingDive)
  • The International Air Transport Association called on airports to give freighter aircraft the same access to slots as passenger planes. (Air Cargo News)
  • Paccar units Kenworth Truck and Peterbilt Motors launched new battery-electric tractor and truck models. (Transport Topics)
  • Saronic won a $392 million production contract from the U.S. Navy for Corsair autonomous vessels. (WorkBoat)
 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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