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May 26, 2021 - Brief Issue 204

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Moderna Says Its Shot Triggers Powerful Immune Response, Protection in Teens (Health & Science)

As Lab Leak Hypothesis Gains Traction, U.S. Health Official Calls For Deeper Investigation Into Origins of Pandemic (Health & Science)

Children With Rare Coronavirus-Related Syndrome Seem to Mostly Recover After Six Months, Study Shows (Health & Science)

CDC Will Stop Looking Into Mild Breakthrough Cases, A Move That Has Divided Experts (Health & Science)

With Vaccinations Ramping Up, Testing Might Become Less Critical (Health & Science)

True Toll of India’s Outbreak Higher Than Official Data Says (Around the World)

Covid-19 Outbreak at Base Camp on Everest (Around the World)

Manitoba Flies Patients to Other Provinces (Around the World)

U.S. Succeeds in Delaying Pandemic Treaty (U.S. Government & Politics)

Alabama Bans Vaccine Passports (U.S. Government & Politics)

Home Price Growth Accelerated in March (U.S. Economy)

Hybrid Work Will Bring Its Own Challenges and Changes (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,166,902 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 590,994 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 287,788,872 vaccine doses, with 49.5% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 39.5% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 167,909,398 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,487,654 deaths.

Moderna Says Its Shot Triggers Powerful Immune Response, Protection in Teens

Moderna announced Tuesday that its coronavirus vaccine protects teens 12 to 17 years old against Covid-19, positioning the shot right behind Pfizer’s vaccine, which the Food and Drug Administration approved for 12- to 15-year-olds earlier this month (STAT, NYT, WaPo, CNN, WSJ). Preliminary results from a Phase 2/3 trial of over 3,700 teens showed that Moderna’s shot triggers the same immune response – and comparable side effects – in teens as in adults, providing 100% protection against infection. Moderna plans to submit this data to the FDA in early June. Although children are unlikely to suffer serious illness from Covid-19, health experts are pushing for younger age groups to get the shot, as vaccination rates among U.S. teens lag behind those of adults (NPR, CNN). Not only can the vaccine protect teens and kids against severe and long-lasting Covid-19, but many experts see this step as critical to curbing community transmission. Both Pfizer and Moderna are testing various doses of their shots in kids below the age of 12. 

As Lab Leak Hypothesis Gains Traction, U.S. Health Official Calls For Deeper Investigation Into Origins of Pandemic

Speaking Tuesday at the World Health Assembly, U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra called for a thorough investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, after a joint report released in March by China and the World Health Organization raised concerns about the WHO’s research methods and China’s transparency (WaPo). “Phase 2 of the covid origins study must be launched with terms of reference that are transparent, science-based, and give international experts the independence to fully assess the source of the virus and the early days of the outbreak,” Becerra said. This statement comes after a newly released U.S. intelligence report lent credence to the lab leak theory – a hypothesis that the virus causing Covid-19 escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, where researchers were investigating bat coronaviruses (WSJ). Though the WHO report published earlier this year deemed this theory “extremely unlikely,” the Wuhan Institute has been unforthcoming and many health experts are calling for a fuller probe into the origins of the virus, with the lab leak hypothesis still on the table. The Biden administration has not yet ruled out the possibility of a lab leak. Bonus Read: “Timeline: How the Wuhan Lab-Leak Theory Suddenly Became Credible,” (WaPo).

Children With Rare Coronavirus-Related Syndrome Seem to Mostly Recover After Six Months, Study Shows

According to a London-based study published in The Lancet, patients with MIS-C – a rare, Covid-19 related inflammatory syndrome that occurs in children – typically recover from their most severe symptoms within six months (NYT, CNN). Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children usually appears a few weeks after a mild case of Covid-19, and is characterized by a range of symptoms that can progress to multi-organ failure. The study of 46 MISC-C patients found that six months after being discharged from the hospital, most children saw their extreme symptoms, like stomach issues, heart problems, neurological complications, and inflammation, fade. Notably, 18 of the children were still experiencing muscle weakness and fatigue, and 15 reported mental health issues like anxiety. Co-author Dr. Justin Penner, who works at Great Ormond Street Hospital, the London hospital in the study, said the results inspire “cautious optimism” but these lingering symptoms should be closely monitored. Dr. Bernhard Wiedermann of the Children's National Hospital in Washington, DC, who works with MIS-C patients, said he was encouraged that “severe organ system damage didn't seem to be prominent,” though with such small sample sizes and limited data, many questions remain: “Everybody is still trying to sort out as to how much of this is due to just the overall issue of being so sick, or is just related to being in a pandemic and what could be unique to MIS-C.” 

CDC Will Stop Looking Into Mild Breakthrough Cases, A Move That Has Divided Experts

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stopped investigating breakthrough infections, or Covid-19 cases in fully vaccinated people, unless these infections lead to hospitalization or death (NYT). As of late April, the CDC had reported 10,262 breakthrough infections among 101 million vaccinated Americans, a number the agency said was likely a “substantial undercount.” The majority of these cases were mild and experts say the data are reassuring. Now, some vaccine effectiveness studies will include breakthrough infection data, but the CDC is shifting its focus to more severe cases of Covid-19. “It’s such a rare phenomenon, and it doesn’t change the trajectory of the pandemic,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, referring to breakthrough infections. Yet some experts worry the CDC’s move will limit researchers’ understanding of long-haul Covid-19 symptoms in those with breakthrough infections, or that the U.S. will be caught off guard if a vaccine-evading variant emerges. 

With Vaccinations Ramping Up, Testing Might Become Less Critical 

The CDC announced last week that fully vaccinated individuals no longer need to get tested for Covid-19 even if they were exposed to the virus, a decision that has sparked debate among health experts and officials about the costs and benefits of testing (Medical Xpress). In the U.S., Covid-19 test supply has outstripped demand, and laboratories’ testing capacities have drastically increased. But some experts say the country’s vaccine rollout has made testing less crucial. "The vaccines overperformed, which is the best news possible," said Dr. Jeffrey Engel of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. "So now you can begin to peel back some of these other layers of mitigation like mask use and screening." The last pandemic relief package allotted $46 billion to support testing in places like schools, but it’s now estimated that many older school-aged children will be vaccinated by the start of the fall term.  

Bonus Read: “How Medical Jargon Can Make COVID Health Disparities Even Worse,” (NPR). 

Around the World

Asia

True Toll of India’s Outbreak Higher Than Official Data Says

A report by the New York Times that attempts to estimate the true toll of the pandemic in India found that even using conservative estimates, the real number of deaths is probably much higher than India’s official death count. The report “analyzed case and death counts over time in India, along with the results of large-scale antibody tests, to arrive at several possible estimates for the true scale of devastation in the country.” It found that in every scenario analyzed, estimated infections and deaths far exceeded official figures. The Times says that the undercount of cases and deaths in India is more pronounced than in some other countries due to “technical, cultural and logistical reasons” and that because hospitals are overwhelmed, many deaths occur at home -- especially in rural areas -- and are omitted from official counts. Testing is severely limited and often families don’t want to say that their loved ones died from Covid-19. The Times said that their “best-case scenario” assumes a true infection count 15 times higher than the official number of recorded cases and a fatality rate of 0.15%, both of which were on the low end of estimates developed by experts. If those numbers are used, the result is a death toll roughly double what’s been reported by official sources. 

Covid-19 Outbreak at Base Camp on Everest

A coronavirus outbreak at base camp on Mt. Everest has infected at least 100 climbers and support staff, according to an expert mountaineering guide. It’s the firs comprehensive estimate given by a reliable source as Nepalese officials deny the disease has spread to the world’s tallest peak. Lukas Furtenbach of Austria, who last week became the only prominent outfitter to halt his Everest expedition because of virus fears, said Saturday one of his foreign guides and six Nepali Sherpa guides have tested positive. “I think with all the confirmed cases we know now – confirmed from (rescue) pilots, from insurance, from doctors, from expedition leaders – I have the positive tests so we can prove this,” Furtenbach told the Associated Press in Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu. “We have at least 100 people minimum positive for COVID in base camp, and then the numbers might be something like 150 or 200,” he said. No climbing visas were issued last year due to the pandemic and Nepalese officials have denied active cases this season; Nepal depends heavily on tourism, especially climbers. 

Americas

Manitoba Flies Patients to Other Provinces

Canada’s Covid-19 pandemic hotspot Manitoba said on Tuesday that it would fly more critically ill Covid-19 patients to other provinces as infections continued to multiply (Reuters). A third wave reached Manitoba later than other provinces, many of which are beginning to loosen restrictions. But in Manitoba, the daily case rate is 233 people per 100,000, the highest in Canada and triple the national average. The province has doubled its intensive care unit and cancelled surgeries but even those beds are filling up. So far, Manitoba has flown 18 critically ill Covid-19 patients to Ontario in the past few days and officials are also in discussions with Saskatchewan and North Dakota about receiving patients. "Our hospitals are being stretched to the limits right now," Chief Provincial Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin said. "There are hundreds of people struggling for their lives." 

Caribbean Islands Had Unique Pandemic Experiences, Now Have Unique Reopenings

The islands that make up the Caribbean, which include sovereign nations, territories, and dependencies, reacted differently to the coronavirus pandemic (NYT). Some were overwhelmed with cases, while infections numbered only single digits on others. The British Virgin Islands have had to follow British guidelines on tourism and enact strict Covid safety protocols, meaning tourism for the past year has been almost nonexistent. The U.S. Virgin Islands, however, have been slammed with catamarans and pleasure yachts along the shores as people have flocked there to escape pandemic fatigue at home. Vaccination campaigns have been similarly disparate: Turks and Caicos has fully vaccinated 48% of its population and partially vaccinated 62% percent, making it one of the most inoculated places in the world. On the other hand, Haiti hasn’t received a single dose. Prior to the pandemic, the Caribbean was the world’s most tourism-reliant region, according to the World Travel Tourism Council. But according to a recent survey by the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association, a quarter of the more than 250 Caribbean tourism companies surveyed said they do not expect a full recovery until at least mid-2023. 

U.S. Government & Politics

U.S. Succeeds in Delaying Pandemic Treaty

The United States succeeded in delaying the development of a treaty to structure the international response to pandemics as the World Health Organization published draft text on Tuesday that put off decisions until November (Politico). Politico reports, “The draft decision, which countries will discuss this week at the World Health Assembly, signals that Washington's strong opposition ultimately won out after difficult discussions among member countries, aided in part by the reluctance among some other capitals that said they couldn't discuss a treaty in the midst of the pandemic.”

Alabama Bans Vaccine Passports

On Monday, Alabama’s Republican Governor Kay Ivey signed a bill prohibiting the use of vaccine passports (CNN, NYT). Ivey framed the act as part of her support for voluntary vaccination, stating, “I am supportive of a voluntary vaccine and by signing this bill into law, I am only further solidifying that conviction,” adding, “I made the choice to get the COVID-19 vaccine and glad for the peace of mind it brings. I encourage any Alabamian who has not gotten their shot to roll up their sleeves, and if you have questions, consult with your health care provider.”

U.S. Economy

Home Price Growth Accelerated in March

In March 2021, the pace of home price growth accelerated to its highest level in more than 15 years (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 13.2% in the year that ended in March, up from a 12% annual rate the prior month. March marked the highest annual rate of price growth since December 2005.” High demand driven by low interest rates and a low supply of homes helped drive price increases.

Bonus Read: “Commodity Prices Have Soared, but Miners Aren’t Investing,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “How Food Trucks Endured and Succeeded During the Pandemic,” (NYT).

Hybrid Work Will Bring Its Own Challenges and Changes

The pandemic drove many companies to adopt remote work arrangements, and brought adaptations with it. Now, the Wall Street Journal reports on the challenges and changes that will come with a shift away from remote work to hybrid arrangements rather than a full return to in-person work (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Companies are laying down new rules and setting expectations for hybrid work as some workers come back in and others remain out of office. At JPMorgan Chase & Co., employees on some teams can schedule work-from-home days, but not on Mondays or Fridays. At Salesforce.com Inc. offices that have reopened, Thursdays are proving to be the most popular in-office day, creating high demand for meeting rooms and collaboration spaces, and prompting the company to rethink its office design.” At PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, executives have expressed concern that remote workers may fall behind and be passed over as people return to the office.

Bonus Read: “Is Baking’s Pandemic Popularity Just a Flash in the Pan?,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

The Wall Street Journal reports on two men who were college roommates and now are playing key roles in Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccine efforts (WSJ).

Natalie B. Compton provides 30 observations from her first post-vaccination flight (WaPo).

Jordan Ellenberg writes on the limitations of CDC guidance on the pandemic (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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