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October 20, 2020 - Brief Issue 107

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Fall Coronavirus Surge: Darker Times to Come, Says Infectious Disease Expert (Health & Science)

Vaccine Distribution Plans Underway; Questions Remain for State Officials (Health & Science)

Tom Frieden: ‘Herd Immunity’ Strategy Would Result in At Least 500,000 More American Deaths (Health & Science)

Few Coronavirus Cases in New York City’s Schools (Health & Science)

U.S.-Canada Border and U.S.-Mexico Border Both Remain Closed (Around the World)

Argentina Hits 1 Million Covid Cases as Sustained Plateau Expected Across Latin America (Around the World)

More European Countries Introduce Additional Restrictions; Governments Get Tougher on Rule Breakers (Around the World)

South Korea’s Restrictions Seen as ‘Exceptional’ Success (Around the World)

Pfizer, BioNTech Start Combined Trials in Japan (Around the World)

Amid Relief Bill Fight, Federal Reserve has Untapped Funds for Coronavirus Relief (U.S. Government & Politics)

Trump Calls Fauci a “Disaster” in Private Call (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Budget Deficit Triples to Record Heights Amid Coronavirus Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Virtual Classes Attract Hackers (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 8,214,754 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 220,133 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,272,603 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 126,033,173 tests. Worldwide, there have been 40,403,799 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,118,361 deaths. At least 27,706,152 people have recovered from the virus. 

Fall Coronavirus Surge: Darker Times to Come, Says Infectious Disease Expert

The fall surge predicted by health experts is here, with Covid-19 infection rates rising around the country and a case count of 70,000 on Friday – the largest single-day infection report since July (Johns Hopkins). However, Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, predicts that things will get worse over the coming months (CNN Health, NY Post).

“The next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic,” Osterholm told CNN’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “Between now and the holidays, we will see numbers much, much larger than even the 67 to 75,000 cases.” He also urged Americans to reconsider holiday travel, saying, “This is our Covid year. Let’s accept it. It’s not like last year, and it’s not hopefully going to be like next year.”

Other experts agree, and stress that Americans must continue to exercise caution and follow public health guidelines. CNN medical analyst Dr. Celine Gounder warns, “If we don’t take this seriously now, we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult position in just weeks to maybe a month or so” (CNN Health). 

Vaccine Distribution Plans Underway; Questions Remain for State Officials 

As vaccine companies ramp up production in anticipation of the conclusion of Covid-19 vaccine clinical trials, governments and health organizations around the world are trying to make sure vaccines will be distributed efficiently. UNICEF, a division of the United Nations and the largest single buyer of vaccines in the world, plans to purchase 520 million syringes by the end of the year. UNICEF, along with the World Health Organization (WHO), have also made detailed plans regarding the shipping, storage, and distribution of syringes, syringe disposal containers, and the vaccines themselves. COVAX, the international Covid-19 vaccine initiative, is developing plans to ensure equal distribution of the vaccine among rich and poor nations (NPR).

The United States, which is not a member of COVAX, has its own plans underway for distributing vaccines and supplies under Operation Warp Speed. The U.S. has plans to distribute 300 million doses of a vaccine beginning in January. However, states still have questions as to how exactly distribution will work. The National Governors Association, led by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, has drafted a letter to the White House asking 36 questions about distribution, including how vaccines will be allocated among states and how national shortages would be addressed (NYT, Politico). The White House pushed back on Governor Cuomo, saying that he has missed 17 governors meetings, including the September 9 briefing wherein the administration covered their 57-page vaccination plan (Politico).

States were required to file their individual vaccine distribution plans with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday. However, James Blumenstock, senior vice president for pandemic response and recovery at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, told reporters Monday that states are still unsure how they will pay for these plans (CNN). The CDC gave states $200 million for Covid-19 preparedness and planning, but Blumenstock called the amount “not sufficient at all.” The association requested another $8.4 billion for states to distribute and administer vaccines. California for its part has established a panel to do its own independent review of vaccines (Reuters).

Tom Frieden: ‘Herd Immunity’ Strategy Would Result in At Least 500,000 More American Deaths

In an editorial published in the Washington Post on Sunday, Tom Frieden, former director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, argued strenuously against the so-called herd immunity strategy touted by some top White House officials (WaPo). Herd immunity is the idea that members of a population who are not immune to a disease are protected from that disease as long as a sufficient percentage of the community is immune. Herd immunity is generally achieved through vaccination, not mass infection.

“Discussing such a reckless approach shouldn’t be necessary,” writes Frieden, “except that it echoes the misguided ideas of neuroradiologist Scott Atlas, who in recent months has become an influential medical adviser to President Trump.” Friedan points out that less than 15 percent of Americans have antibodies against Covid-19. This means that, if the virus were allowed to run through the population unchecked until herd immunity was achieved, “then at least another half-million Americans – in addition to the 220,000 who have already died – would have to die.” He adds, “And that’s the best-case scenario. The number of deaths to get there could be twice as high.”

Frieden’s view is shared by nearly every mainstream infectious disease expert, including World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus, who last week called the strategy “immoral” (BBC).

Few Coronavirus Cases in New York City’s Schools

In-person school is back in session in New York City, which contains the largest public school system in the nation. After experiencing devastating impacts from Covid-19 early in the year, the city has been reopening cautiously. When students went back to school in person three weeks ago, schools implemented screening measures, along with random testing, hoping to catch potential outbreaks early. Under the rules, one positive test can cause a classroom to close, while two positive tests in separate classrooms leads to a temporary schoolwide closure.

So far, results are encouraging. Out of 10,676 tests, only 18 have been positive. Over 120 schools in Brooklyn and Queens, which have experienced recent outbreaks, closed for in-person learning as a precautionary measure, but even in those areas, cases in schools have been rare. Paula White, executive director of Educators for Excellence, called the data encouraging and said, “It reinforces what we have heard about schools not being super spreaders.”

New York City’s testing program stipulates that 10 to 20 percent of the school population be tested once a month. Some public health experts believe it should be much higher than that – more on the order of 50 percent of the school twice a month. Indeed, the city is looking to expand testing, increasing the frequency to three times a month. Governor Cuomo has ordered schools in hotspots to conduct testing once a week.

The city was the first large urban district to open for in-person learning in September. Many other districts around the state and country remain online-only, citing fears of outbreaks and the logistical challenges of keeping students and staff safe. In the face of these challenges, New York could serve as a model for other school districts around the country, particularly as pressure mounts in some states for a return to in-person learning (NYT).

Bonus Reads: “Can an Air Purifier Help Protect You Against the Coronavirus?,” (WaPo); “Migrant Workers Restricted to Farms Under One Grower’s Virus Lockdown,” (NYT).

Around the World

Americas

U.S.-Canada Border and U.S.-Mexico Border Both Remain Closed

The border between the United States and Canada will remain closed to non-essential travel through Nov. 21, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced on Monday (Reuters, Politico). The agreement with Canada was set to expire on Wednesday, but last week Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned Canadians that traveling south this winter would probably be out of the question. Trudeau told Winnipeg podcast “The Start”: “We have committed to keeping Canadians safe and we keep extending the border closures because the United States is not in a place where we would feel comfortable reopening those borders," Trudeau said. "We will continue to make sure that Canadians' safety is top of mind when we move forward. We see the cases in the United States and elsewhere around the world and we need to continue to keep these border controls in place." Mexico’s foreign ministry also said on Monday that the current measures will remain in place until Nov. 21.

Argentina Hits 1 Million Covid Cases as Sustained Plateau Expected Across Latin America

On Monday Argentina recorded more than 1 million cases of Covid-19 as the virus spreads from larger cities to rural areas throughout the country (AP). Argentina’s surge in cases comes even in spite of the country instituting one of the world’s longest lockdowns. Health experts expect that Latin America as a whole will experience a more sustained, plateau-like trend rather than a second wave. Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are expected to reach the 1 million case mark in the coming weeks.

Europe

More European Countries Introduce Additional Restrictions; Governments Get Tougher on Rule Breakers

As we covered in yesterday’s brief, European nations are introducing stricter measures in hopes of fighting the second wave without a full lockdown as cases continue to rise at alarming rates. Slovenia declared a 30-day state of emergency as the case count doubled in the past week (Reuters). Movement between regions that have been hardest-hit by the pandemic will be banned and a nightly curfew beginning at 9 p.m. started Monday night. All public and religious events have also been banned and people will only be allowed to gather in groups of six. Slovenia has recorded 4,845 cases in the past week, up from 2,255 cases the previous week. 

Wales will begin a national lockdown starting Friday evening, Mark Drakeford, the country’s first minister, said on Monday (NYT). The lockdown means that residents must stay at home and pubs, restaurants, and nonessential shops will close. Drakeford said the lockdown was “our best chance of regaining control of the virus.” Wales has effectively closed itself off from other parts of Britain.

In Bucharest, the capital of Romania, schools, theaters, and indoor dining will be closed for at least two weeks. Masks will not be mandatory in public. Cases in the city have tripled over the past month. Romania reported 2,466 new cases in the past 24 hours, out of 8,040 tests, representing a positive rate of 30.6%, according to the official daily report released on Monday (Romanian Insider). 

As governments continue to introduce new measures, they’ve also increased policing around the new policies. Public health violations are becoming more costly as authorities crack down on rule breakers. “We won’t be issuing warnings any more,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo in a television interview Sunday. “Those who don’t follow the rules get a €250 fine [$294], to be collected immediately” (WSJ). In Italy, fines for not wearing masks, which are now mandatory indoors, range from €400 to €1,000. In France, people caught outside past the 9 p.m. curfew that was put in place in the Paris region and nine other cities now face fines from €135 to €3,750 for repeat offenders. After British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered pubs and restaurants across the country to close by 10 p.m. and limited the number of people allowed at social gatherings last month, those caught violating the rules could be fined up to £200 for the first offense and up to £6,400 for repeat offenses. In Spain, the Interior Ministry deployed 7,000 police officers to enforce anti-coronavirus measures and fines that range from €100 to €600,000. While many countries had fines in place in March, enforcement was sometimes lacking but now authorities are stepping up policing in hopes that the preventative measures will help avoid national lockdowns. 

Asia 

Bonus Read: “China Acceleration May Not Rescue World From Coronavirus Slowdown” (WSJ).

South Korea’s Restrictions Seen as ‘Exceptional’ Success

Just as much of Europe is reinstituting coronavirus restrictions, South Korea is easing them. Churches have resumed in-person services and sports have welcomed back fans while more than 31 million South Koreans traveled to visit family or take vacations between Sept. 29 and Oct. 4 (NPR). President Moon Jae-in called South Korea’s success “exceptional” and said the country has overcome “what could have been the biggest threat yet.” The second wave of infections seemed to peak in late August and now the country is going to “‘minimize extreme measures,’ such as shutting down businesses, and will reinforce ‘precision prevention’ tailored to individual risks.” 

Pfizer, BioNTech Start Combined Trials in Japan

Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech announced on Tuesday the start of combined Phase I and Phase II clinical trials of their mRNA vaccine in Japan (Reuters). The study will include 160 people aged 20 to 85. Pfizer said it could confirm if the vaccine is effective as soon as this month but will still need data from a global trial of 44,000 people, which will not be available until November. Japan has promised to secure enough vaccine supplies for its entire population by mid-2021 and has also made deals with AstraZeneca and other vaccine candidate makers. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Amid Relief Bill Fight, Federal Reserve has Untapped Funds for Coronavirus Relief

As the White House, Senate GOP leaders, and House Democratic leaders continue to fight over proposals for further coronavirus relief funds, the Federal Reserve holds onto hundreds of billions of dollars slated for emergency use which have not been spent (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “In March, Congress allotted $454 billion to the Treasury Department to support the central bank’s emergency lending programs, including those for struggling businesses and local governments. Of that pot, only $195 billion has been specifically committed to cover any losses the Fed might take, including loans that companies fail to repay. Seven months into the crisis, the remaining $259 billion still has not been committed to any of the Fed’s specific programs or for any other purpose, and it is unlikely that it will be anytime soon.” The White House states that any redirection of the funds would require Congressional approval. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told “Fox Business,” “I have over $200 billion of money that was allocated for the Federal Reserve facilities with the Treasury. I’m not going to need that.” As we covered in yesterday’s brief, the fight over relief proposals continues with Pelosi having given a deadline for the White House to agree to a bill in order for it to pass before the election, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell setting votes on Tuesday and Wednesday on the Senate GOP proposal which falls short of the funding levels that both the House Democrats and the White House seek.

Trump Calls Fauci a “Disaster” in Private Call

In a campaign call on Monday, Trump referred to White House Coronavirus Task Force Member Anthnoy Fauchi as a “disaster” (WaPo, NYT, CNN). He also said that Fauci had been around for “500 years” and referred to various health officials as “idiots.” Trump commented, “People are tired of Covid. I have these huge rallies,” adding, “People are saying whatever. Just leave us alone. They're tired of it. People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.” The report of the comments on the call follows the campaign’s decision to air an ad that included criticism of Dr. Fauci, which he contended took his words out of context and numerous previous reports of the complex and often rocky relationship between one of the government’s leading officials in the coronavirus response and the president. Fauci has had his own criticism of the Trump White House, for example telling CBS’ “60 Minutes” on Sunday that he was not surprised by the spread of coronavirus following the White House’s Rose Garden event for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett (WaPo). He said, “When I saw that on TV, I said, ‘Oh my goodness. Nothing good can come out of that. That’s got to be a problem,” adding, “And then sure enough, it turned out to be a superspreader event.”

U.S. Economy

U.S. Budget Deficit Triples to Record Heights Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

The U.S. budget deficit for the fiscal year tripled to $3.1 trillion as the United States government expanded its spending to respond to the virus and its economic impact (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “As a share of economic output, the budget gap in fiscal year 2020 hit roughly 16.1%, the largest since 1945, the Treasury Department said Friday, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II. Federal debt totaled 102% of gross domestic product, the first time it has exceeded the size of the economy for the full fiscal year in more than 70 years, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.” The record level of deficit spending has contributed to the tension over and Senate Republican opposition to larger proposals for a new round of coronavirus relief spending. Others see the spending levels as necessary. William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, for example, told the Journal, “Unprecedented times call for unprecedented deficits.” The increased spending is not out of line with global trends. As the Journal notes, “The International Monetary Fund this week said global public debt is likely to approach a record 100% of output but urged policymakers to maintain spending to help vulnerable groups and promote a strong recovery.”

Eviction Wave Expected as Relief Bill Negotiations Appear Stalled

The House Democrats’ version of the latest coronavirus relief bill includes relief for renters and a 12-month extension of the moratorium on evictions, but with negotiations over the bill stalling, experts expect a wave of evictions come January (Reuters). John Pollock, a Public Justice Center attorney and coordinator of the National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel, warned that the wave of evictions in the absence of relief would be “unlike anything we have ever seen.” The Princeton University Eviction Lab has already identified 60,000 evictions in 17 cities since the pandemic began. The CDC’s eviction moratorium resulted in the number of evictions declining but not ceasing, and in January those protected by the moratorium will still owe back rent, which many will not be able to pay. Reuters reports that in addition to the immediate human consequences of eviction, “Health experts say evictions may contribute to a second-wave COVID-19 crisis, as the newly homeless are forced into shelters or tight quarters with friends and relatives, potentially exposing them to infection. The danger is particularly acute in the winter, when colder weather pushes people indoors.”

U.S. Society

Virtual Classes Attract Hackers

The rise in virtual schooling as a response to the pandemic is attracting hackers, according to a report Monday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Many K-12 schools that recently returned to virtual instruction handed out devices to students and teachers while trying to prevent computer networks from crumpling under a surge in use. Now, as this unique school year unfolds, attackers are circling. They have ranged from students, such as a Miami high-schooler recently arrested for allegedly overloading his district’s systems with a denial-of-service attack, to professional hackers demanding money. The increase in data breaches, ransomware and phishing attacks is disrupting classes from New York to California for as long as a week at a time as schools’ overburdened tech staffs, many without dedicated cyber experts, try to keep up.” According to data from the consulting firm EdTech Strategies, at least 289 districts have faced cyber incidents this year through October 16. In all of 2019, there were 348 incidents, and in 2018, there were 182 incidents. According to Doug Levin, who runs the firm, the number of incidents increased after an initial decline in the first months of the pandemic. 

Bonus Reads: “For a Normal College Experience During the Pandemic, These Students Hopped Continents,” (WaPo); “Black Family Reunions, a Wellspring of Political Wisdom, Evaporate in 2020,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

John M. Berry writes that strategies aimed at reaching herd immunity without containing the virus could cost a million lives (NYT).

In a video, Pedro Armando Aparicio and David Zlutnick examine the challenges coronavirus, wildfires, and other threats pose to LA’s homeless population (Intercept).

Maggie Koerth examines what is known about outdoor vs. indoor coronavirus transmission (538).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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